2010 FAA Great Lakes Region Annual Conference State of Airport Financing November 3, Marsha Stone, CFO Indianapolis Airport Authority

Transcription

1 2010 FAA Great Lakes Region Annual Conference State of Airport Financing November 3, 2010 Marsha Stone, CFO Indianapolis Airport Authority

2 Economy and Aviation Industry

3 U.S. Aviation Traffic: Signs of Hope? Jan-Jun 2010 vs. Jan-Jun 2009 Jan-Jun 2009 Jan-Jun 2010 Change Total Passengers million million 1.2% Domestic Passengers million million 0.7% International Passengers 42.4 million 44.2 million 4.3% Flights (thousands) 4, , % Available Seat Miles billion billion -0.8% Load Factor 78.5 percent 81.0 percent 2.5 pts. Flight Stage Length miles miles 1.1% The first half of 2010 has seen some anemic growth overall with international traffic rebounding much better than domestic. Carriers have maintained capacity discipline with 1.7% and 0.8% reductions in flights and ASMs, respectively, which led to a record load factor for the month of June at 86.2%. Source: BTS 3

4 US Capacity: Increases in Scheduled Flights and Seats Jan-11 vs. Jan-10 January schedules currently show all categories of airports returning to significant growth. Source: apgdat 4

5 Airline Finances: Full Year and First Half Net Profit/Loss Carrier Full Year st Half 2010 AirTran $134.7 million $355 million Alaska $121.6 million $63.9 million Southwest $99 million $60 million WestJet $98 (CAD) million $34.8 (CAD) million JetBlue $58 million $29 million Air Canada -$24 (CAD) million -$288 (CAD) million US Airways -$205 million $235 million Continental -$282 million $87 million United -$651 million $191 million Delta -$1.2 billion $211 million American -$1.5 billion -$516 million Through the first half of 2010, most carriers have shown significant profits. Air Canada and American continue to face difficulties. Source: Airline Reporting 5

6 Airport Finances: AIP Funding Actually Declining While the AIP program has been level funded at $3.515B for several years now, the amount available for grants has been decreasing due to additional administrative and research priorities. Additional regulatory requirements add an additional strain to scarce AIP dollars. Source: FAA 6

7 Airport Finances: Still Fighting for A PFC Increase ACI-NA continues to make the case to Congress for an increase in the PFC cap. After applying construction cost inflation, the $4.50 PFC should be $8.11 in today s dollars. Airlines continue to argue that any increase in the PFC would rob them of revenue. Source: RS Means, ACI-NA 7

8 State of Airport Financings

9 Airport market overview Airport issued $1.012 billion in debt in September 2010 September was the third month in row and 7th month in 2010 with over $1 billion of airport issuance 2010-To- Date 2010 Forward Calendar 2011 Bank Facility Renewals There has been $12.4 billion of airport debt issued in 2010-to-date through mid-oct. From : Airport issuance has averaged $10 billion per year Annual airport issuance has ranged between $7.5 billion (2004) and $12.5 billion (2001) Very heavy forward calendar of airport deals As much as $5.6 billion may be issued by end of 2010, resulting in approximately $18 billion of airport issuance for 2010 Airports are trying to get deals done by the scheduled expiration of ARRA at end of CY 2010 Attractive long-term borrowing costs Lock-in Non-AMT private activity bond rates Lock-in 35% BAB rate subsidy Issuers may find it a challenge to renew VRDO bank facilities Almost $80 billion of bank facilities supporting variable-rate municipal debt are scheduled to expire in the next five quarters, with an enormous spike in the second quarter of next year according to Moody s (dated September 2010) 9

10 Airport revenue bond issuance : New Money vs. Refunding Airport Bond Issuances New Money vs. Refunding Bonds: 2000 to YTD 2010 ($millions) Refunding ($millions) New Money ($millions) $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 4,054 4,221 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 6,784 8,554 6,901 7,611 4,285 7,427 3,912 5,431 7,575 5,252 8,636 $2,000 2,616 3,978 3,954 3,525 2,872 4,354 4,016 2,780 3,777 $0 10

11 Airport fixed rate revenue bond issuance : Insured vs. Uninsured Consistent with the rest of the municipal market, most Airport bonds are being sold without insurance: 89% over past two years vs. 35% over previous 9 years Airport Fixed Rate Bond Issuances Insured Amounts vs. Uninsured Amounts: 2000 to YTD 2010 ($millions) Insured Amount ($millions) Uninsured Amount ($millions) $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 2,038 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2, ,937 8,763 1,890 6,409 1,393 7, ,346 1,580 6, ,121 1,301 6,486 3,532 3,811 6,230 10,473 $0 1,028 1,092 11

12 Investors Returning to Municipal Bonds Source: Morgan Stanley

13 Federal programs have helped the municipal market Source: Morgan Stanley

14 Changes Provide New Challenges for Financial Managers Source: Morgan Stanley

15 Credit Facilities: Fewer Options Create Higher Costs Source: Morgan Stanley

16 AMT Holiday Set to Expire which is Driving Volume Source: Morgan Stanley

17 Investor Considerations Quantitative Metrics Enplanements (trends & projections) Debt Liquidity Debt Service Coverage Airline Costs per Enplanement Qualitative Metrics Demographic Trends Competition Airline Diversity Capital Improvement Plan Percent O&D Exposure to Tourism Industry Airline Merger Activity

18 Airlines Question Airport liquidity levels Letter from Air Transport Association (ATA) to FAA requesting FAA issue guidance around appropriate liquidity levels for airports Airports Council International and airport representatives currently in dialogue with FAA and ATA on this issue

19 Rating Agency Views

20 Moody s U.S. Airport Sector Outlook Moody s maintains a negative outlook for U.S. Airports based on downside risks which outweigh growth potential over the outlook period Moody s does not expect the sector to stabilize until consistent positive enplanement growth has been achieved

21 Moody s U.S. Airport Sector Outlook Key factors for Moody s 02/2010 Negative Outlook Enplanement trends stabilized; however, consistent growth doesn t appear imminent Slow U.S. & global economic recovery w/ substantial risks While airport financial health remains resilient, the compounded difficult conditions of 2008 & 2009 have reduced flexibility Moody s global airline industry outlook remains negative due to continuing pressure on yields & potential for additional capacity cuts Downside risks: increased oil prices, reduced demand due to security measures or medical epidemics Federal funding support remains uncertain

22 Rating Agency View of Factors Typically Leading to Credit Actions Increasing debt per EPAX (both higher debt and drop in traffic) Steeper declines in demand predominantly in smaller markets Slimmer coverage resulting in rate covenant violations and medians outside current category (e.g., special facilities) Extraordinary liquidity one to three years in days cash Improved debt service coverage due to higher non-airline revenue sources (e.g., CFC, increased parking rates) Smaller declines in traffic coupled with consistently solid financial profile (median decline in CY EPAX was 3.2% for AA category vs. 7% for A category and 4.4% for BBB category)

23 S&P Rating Actions in the Airport Sector: YTD Upgrades Downgrades

24 Rating Agency Views: Airport Credit Pressures Continual pressure to keep airport costs low resulting in lower Debt Service Coverage & liquidity measures exposure to high fixed costs Higher costs of carrying debt - capital market disruption and requirement to actively manage counterparty risks Risks of deferred maintenance on top of large capital and debt requirements Shrinking airline space requirements returning gates to airport operators (e.g., Delta/Northwest merger) Significant service cutbacks affecting activity-based revenues including concessions pressure for operators to negotiate changes in minimum annual guarantees (MAGs) Airport operators may look to take on increased risk by assuming activities previously performed by airlines

25 Indianapolis: How are we adjusting?

26 IND Year-to-Date Activity 2010 year-to-date passenger enplanements and cargo landed weights are essentially flat with 2009 year-to-date statistics 2010 Cargo landed weight and passenger enplanements have outperformed 2009 in recent months reflecting an overall improvement in the local economy and consumer and business sentiment IND Monthly Enplanements 2010 vs IND Monthly Cargo Landed Weight 2010 vs , , , , , , % 240, , , % 260, , ,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 160,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

27 Non-airline revenues have increased significantly while the Authority has reduced operating expense The Authority has taken steps to significantly increase non-airline revenue Raised daily parking rates by $1 to $2 on September 1, 2009, resulting in approximately $3.5 million to $4.0 million of increased revenue Increased CFC rate from $3.00 per day to $4.00 per day, resulting in approximately $1.5 million of increased revenue Allowed post-security food & beverage concessionaires to implement street + 10% pricing The Authority took steps to aggressively reduce 2010 operating expense budget and has benefited from moderating utility rates. Reduced FTE headcount from 482 in December 2009 to 465 in September 2010 Froze salaries and suspended 457(b) contributions for one year 2010 utility costs are tracking 20% below 2010 budget largely as a result of lower than the budgeted utility rates Revenue and Expense (in $000s) 2009 Actual 2010 Estimate 2011 Budget Growth O&M Expenses $66,769 $61,897 $64, % Non-airline Revenues $79,004 $85,729 $88, % Airline Revenues $50,543 $50,555 $47, % 27

28 Authority Less Reliant on Passenger Airlines than Residual Airports on Average Non-airline revenue is expected to grow from approximately 62.9% of gross revenue in 2010 to 67.4% in 2015 Passenger airline revenue is forecast to account for approximately 30.5% of gross revenue in 2010, declining to 25.5% in 2015 Non-airline revenue forecast projection for the period is conservative: Does not include FedEx Phase IV rentals Does not include parking rate increases Does not include revenue from redevelopment of old airport property 2010 Estimates Operating Revenues (in $000s) Forecasted Operating Revenues Revenue Source Amount % of Total Airline Passenger $41, % Airline Cargo (landing fees) $8, % Parking $40, % Concessions / Car Rental $16, % Rented Buildings and Other Areas $16, % IMC $8, % Other $4, % Total $136,284 28

29 IND Focused on Increasing Non-Airline Revenue The Authority is ranked 9 th among all U.S. airports in concession sales per enplaned passenger (Airport Revenue News) IND parking revenue per enplanement is second among U.S. medium hub airports (ACI-NA) Concessions Sales per Enplanement (SPE) Rank Airport 1 New York (JFK) 2 Pittsburgh 3 San Francisco 4 Miami 5 Newark 6 Las Vegas 7 Portland 8 Boston 9 Indianapolis 10 Reno Average (Top 50, North America) SPE $12.90 $11.90 $11.17 $10.48 $10.26 $10.15 $10.04 $10.03 $9.90 $9.77 $8.87 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $- Medium Hub 2009 Parking Revenue per Enplanement IND 2009 $

30 AUA Provides IND with Operational and Financial Flexibility 5-year agreement allows the Authority to quickly adjust to changes in air service industry Changes to MII provisions allows Authority to complete capital program without airline approval process Rate-making methodology allows the Authority to fund capital program without issuing additional debt Residual model protects the Authority s liquidity and coverage ratios in the event of negative financial impacts to the forecast 30

31 IND Plan of Finance 2010B Bonds Current Refunding of 2008 Variable Rate Bonds Fixed rate Non-AMT bonds to refund certain early maturities of the 2008A Variable Rate Bonds Current Refunding of Fixed-Rate Bonds under ARRA legislation 2010C Bonds Direct placement of Index Floaters Authority pays spread to LIBOR Index Eliminates bank credit risk, swap basis risk, and remarketing fees Existing fixed-payer swaps remain in place 2003A Term Bonds Authority plans to use cash to retire the currently callable $ million 5% 2027 term bond and the $ million 5% 2033 term bond

32 Questions?