Dealing with the Gathering Clouds

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1 Dealing with the Gathering Clouds Regional Economic Outlook for sub-saharan Africa Christian Beddies Resident Representative, Zimbabwe International Monetary Fund November 11,

2 Percent Growth in sub-saharan Africa has weakened markedly 8 Real GDP Growth, Average Average

3 but there is significant heterogeneity within the region 2015 Growth Forecast Below 4 percent Between 4 and 5 percent Above 5 percent 3

4 Outline External headwinds Domestic environment and outlook Policy implications 4

5 Three key factors have underpinned the solid performance of the last decade Better policies and institutions Capital Inflows High Commodity Prices 5

6 Iron ore Crude oil Natural gas Coal Copper Gold Cotton Coffee Tea Cocoa Percent change from January 2013 Of late, two of these factors have become less supportive. Commodity prices have weakened 60 Selected Commodity Prices, Jan 2013 Aug projections -80 6

7 and financing conditions are tightening Zambia Gabon Tanzania Ghana Kenya Nigeria Côte d'ivoire Senegal South Africa Emerging markets Sovereign Bond Spreads (EMBIG spreads, basis point change since October 2014) Note: Data as of October 23,

8 Current account balance (percent of GDP) External and fiscal positions are weaker than in 2008 Current Account Balance and Fiscal Balance, Sub-Saharan Africa Oil exporters Low-income countries Fiscal balance (percent of GDP) 8

9 Change (percentage points of GDP) and in frontier economies public debt is increasing Total Public Debt Ratio Sub-Saharan Africa Comparators ZMB CMR SEN AGO ZAF KEN UGA COL RUS TZA CHL THA IDN MYS NGA PER ETH PHL POL BRA GHA IND HUN Level of public debt in 2014 (percent of GDP) 9

10 Botswana Angola Mauritius Nigeria Lesotho Seychelles Zambia Comoros South Africa Kenya Tanzania Uganda Swaziland Cabo Verde Malawi Burundi Madagascar Mozambique Ghana Congo, Dem. Rep. Guinea South Sudan Zimbabwe CEMAC WAEMU Months of imports Some countries have drawn on their foreign exchange reserves 14 Reserves Most recent October

11 Zambia Angola Mozambique Uganda Tanzania South Africa Nigeria Ghana Malawi Botswana CEMAC/WAEMU Mauritius Madagascar Kenya Guinea Rwanda Ethiopia Sierra Leone Burundi Congo, Dem. Rep. Gambia, The Seychelles Brazil Chile Poland Indonesia Thailand India Percent...but most have also let their currencies depreciate Depreciation of National Currency Against U.S. Dollar Since October 2014 (+ indicates depreciation) Sub-Saharan Africa Comparators Note: Data as of October 23,

12 All SSA Chad Cameroon Nigeria All oil exporters Gabon Angola Congo, Rep. South Sudan Equatorial Guinea Kenya Senegal Namibia Zambia Seychelles Ghana Cabo Verde Mauritius All MICs Lesotho Botswana Swaziland South Africa Ethiopia Mozambique Tanzania Rwanda All LICs Uganda Benin Burkina Faso Mali Niger Malawi Sierra Leone Congo, Dem. Rep. Côte d'ivoire Central African Rep. Togo All fragile states São Tomé & Príncipe Guinea-Bissau Gambia, The Madagascar Zimbabwe Comoros Liberia Eritrea Guinea Burundi Percent The upshot is a sharp growth deceleration, with some variation across the region 10 8 Real GDP Growth Projections, 2015, Current Projections versus October 2014 Projections Oil exporters Middle-income countries (MICs) Low-income countries (LICs) Fragile states Current projection October 2014 projection 12

Risks to this outlook are tilted to the downside Security-related risks still prevail in a number of countries Commodity prices could fall still further, especially

13 Risks to this outlook are tilted to the downside Security-related risks still prevail in a number of countries Commodity prices could fall still further, especially in the event of a more rapid slowdown in China A sharp global reallocation of financial assets could lead to rapid capital outflows from the region s frontier markets 13

14 Near-term policy implications: Limited scope to counter the drag on growth Fiscal policy: For oil exporters, adjustment is unavoidable For most others, need to balance debt sustainability considerations and development spending Monetary policy Exchange rate should absorb the shock, wherever feasible Interventions should be limited to contain exchange rate excessive volatility 14

15 Percent Financial stability will also require close monitoring Commodity Price Shocks and Indicators of Financial Sector Fragility Nonperforming loans (NPLs) Number of banking crises All countries Sub-Saharan Africa Developing countries 0 All countries Sub-Saharan Africa Developing countries Positive shocks Negative shocks 15

16 Medium-term considerations Policy actions need to be geared toward boosting the region s competitiveness Strengthening revenue mobilization will be the most durable way to create fiscal space 16

17 Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Emerging and developing Asia Commonwealth of Independent States Latin America and Caribbean Emerging and developing Europe Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of world Median (percent of GDP) Tax revenue mobilization: Good progress to date Total Tax Revenue, and Selected regions Average Low-income countries 0 17

18 South Africa Namibia Congo, Rep. Angola Kenya Ghana Senegal Guinea-Bissau Cameroon Togo Mozambique Gambia, The Malawi Tanzania Zambia Mali Madagascar Burkina Faso Guinea Uganda Ethiopia Nigeria Niger SSA median Non-SSA median Percent of GDP but still potential for significant improvement 40 Tax Ratio and Potential, Actual tax ratio Tax potential

19 Percent With the right policies, growth should strengthen again in the medium term 6 Real GDP Growth, Average

20 Millions of persons, ages And the region s demographic trends will entail important opportunities for growth 350 Change in Global Working-Age Population Sub-Saharan Africa Rest of world

21 Zimbabwe s economy Zimbabwe's economic and financial conditions remain difficult: Slow growth, rising unemployment, economic activity increasingly shifting to the informal sector, a precarious external position, and very low levels of international reserves In addition, the country is in debt distress and is facing low commodity prices, an appreciating U.S. dollar, and subdued external inflows 21

22 Risks to the outlook Fiscal challenges Weak global commodity prices Adverse weather conditions Policy implementation in a difficult political environment 22

23 Opportunities Advancing the ongoing reforms Reengagement with the international community Access to official financial support Better credit risk and therefore lower costs of funds, including for the private sector Private sector support by entities such as the IFC and EIB 23

24 The re-engagement process and cooperation with Zimbabwe going forward Zimbabwe needs to normalize its relations with international creditors, after more than a decade of noncooperation The authorities recently got the green light from its creditors to settle their overdue obligations with the AfDB, World Bank and IMF 24

25 What next? Continued commitment to implementing sound macroeconomic and structural policies If all goes well, Zimbabwe could request a Fundfinancial programme in The reform component would build on the SMP in an effort to address the more deep seated structural problems Strong ownership of such a programme is key 25

26 Thank you! The online edition of the Regional Economic Outlook for sub-saharan Africa is now available online at 26

Regional outlook Sub-Saharan Africa 24/11/2015. Share commodities in good exports. Share commodities in goods imports

Regional outlook Sub-Saharan Africa 24/11/2015. Share commodities in good exports. Share commodities in goods imports Table 1: Economic structure indicators Number of Inhabitants (m.) Size of the economy (in USD bn.) Size of the economy (% of world GDP) Share commodities in good exports Share commodities in goods imports