Recreation Demand and Climate Trends

Transcription

1 Recreation Demand and Climate Trends Climate, Weather, and Tourism Workshop East Carolina University Ken Cordell and Linda Joyce Forest Service Research and Development Athens, GA and Ft. Collins, CO November 14, 2008

2 Outline A little interesting history Some trends Outdoor recreation generally Nature-based recreation specifically Forest recreation especially Visitation to public lands Kids Climate change Direct Effects Indirect Effects Implications for Public Lands and Tourism

3 Source The Forest Service s Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment examines the status and futures of the Nation s renewable resources on all forest and rangelands. Renewable resources evaluated include fish and wildlife, water, forests, range, wilderness, as well as the demand for and ability of these resources to provide outdoor recreation opportunities.

4 A primary Data Source for Demand Trends: National Survey on Recreation and the Environment---NSRE The Athens research group has been collecting data about the recreation activities, environmental attitudes, and natural resource values of Americans since the 1980s. The core of the NSRE survey covers outdoor activity participation and personal demographics. It originated in NSRE is a random-digit-dialed household survey of a cross section of non-institutionalized U.S. residents 16 years of age or older. Respondents are asked more than 80 outdoor activities at varying times during the year. NSRE now includes a National Kids Survey The NSRE is conducted by the Forest Service research group in Athens, Georgia, with two primary partners, the University of Georgia and the University of Tennessee. NSRE is the demand data base for half the states SCORPs

5 A Little History THEN In 1960, the U.S. population reached about 180 million. Along with increasing affluence, population growth boosted demand for outdoor recreation. Family vacations and summer trips quickly became a significant part of the typical American s calendar. As reported by ORRRC, the most popular summertime outdoor recreation activities in 1960 were, in order, driving for pleasure, swimming, walking, playing outdoor games or sports Also sightseeing, picnicking, fishing, bicycling, attending outdoor sports events, boating, nature walks, and hunting And camping, horseback riding, water skiing, hiking, and attending concerts or other outdoor events.

6 Some of the drivers of change Department of Transportation

7 Economic growth

8 Thousands Historic and Projected Population by Ethnicity The cultural mix is/will change White (non- Hispanic) African American Hispanic (Any Race) American Indian, Eskimo, & Aleutian Asian & Pacific Islander Year

9 MILLIONS OF IMMIGRANTS LIVING IN THE U.S. BY YEAR OF ENTRY Since Before 1970 > Immigration has been exceeding 1 million per year Source: United States Bureau of Census

10 GROWTH OF INTERNET USERS WORLD WIDE Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec April 2004 April 2005 Now 16 Million 70 Million 248 Million 451 Million 719 Million 757 Million 934 Million 1.46 Billion 21.9% of population Source: Internet World Stats

11 By the Year 2000 By 2000, the population had risen to around 284 million (about 3 million per year) Viewing and photographing birds had become the fastest-growing activity in the country. Closely following birding were day hiking and backpacking, growing 193 and 182 percent, respectively, in less than twenty years. Snowmobiling increased 125 percent. Next were attending outdoor concerts, plays, and other events; walking for pleasure; camping in developed sites; canoeing or kayaking; downhill skiing; and swimming in natural waters (i.e., streams, lakes, and oceans). The most noticeable change by 2000 was growth in the proportion of population participating in outdoor activities. Also, growth in interest in nature study.

12 Photo source, Forest History Society Though the technology of outdoor equipment and clothing has evolved dramatically over the years, all of the activities popular in the 1950s and 1960s are still popular. However, many other key aspects of outdoor recreation have been changing, not just the technology. The equipment used now is quite different, relative to the 1960s. The Nyman family portaging on the Superior National Forest in Minnesota in (Forest History Society Photo Archives)

13 Current Adult Trends Trends in outdoor recreation generally Between 2000 and 2007, the total number of people who participated in one or more activities grew by 4.4 percent At the same time, the sum total number of days of participation increased from 67 billion to 84 billion, approximately +25 percent Figure 1. Growth in number of people and number of activity days in 60 outdoor recreation activities in the United States, Source: National Survey on Recreation and the Environment

14 Visited farm or agric. setting View/photograph flowers, etc. View/photograph natural scenery Drive off-road View/photograph other wildlife View or photograph birds Rock climbing Kayaking Visit waterside besides beach Family gatherings outdoors Snowboarding Backpacking Visit nature centers, etc Big game hunting Fastest Growing Activities 2000 to 2007 and Percent change in days Motorized Hunting/ Fishing Activities losing participation Use personal watercraft Waterskiing Small game hunting Visit historic sites Coldwater fishing Driving for pleasure Rowing Saltwater fishing Snorkeling Migratory bird hunting Cross-country skiing Sailing Picnicking Canoeing Day hiking Downhill skiing Horseback riding on trails Snowmobiling Snowshoeing Scuba diving Mountain biking

15 Trends in naturebased outdoor recreation specifically Some growth activities near home (e.g., wildlife watching or swimming); others remote (such as backpacking or climbing). Between 2000 and 2007, the total people participating in nature-based activities grew by 3.1 percent. Number of days of participation grew about 32 percent. Over all 50 nature-based activities, per capita days of participation increased by more than 22 percent. Figure 2. Growth in number of people and number of participation days in 50 nature-based outdoor recreation activities in the United States, Source: National Survey on Recreation and the Environment

16 And Nature-based outdoor recreation has become less dominated by men as women have begun to participate more in outdoor activities. (A group of women canoe-camping in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge Wilderness in This would have been an unusual sight in the 1960s.)

17 Activity Mix is Changing A few of the nature-based activitiesexperienced decreases in both the number of people who participated and total days of participation Primitive camping (not in developed campgrounds), backpacking, and mountain climbing showed decreases in the number of people who participated, but increases in the number of days of participation Visiting prehistoric sites, saltwater fishing, and snorkeling showed increases in number of people who participated, but decreases in total days For a sizable number of nature-based activities, however, both the number of people participating and the summed days of participation increased Net effect, growth

18 Interest in visiting, viewing, photographing nature is growing Fastest Growing Nature-Based Activities Total participants (millions), 2007 Percentage change in participants, Total days of participation (billions), 2007 Percentage change in total days, Viewing or photographing flowers and trees Viewing or photographing natural scenery Driving off-road Viewing or photographing other wildlife Viewing or photographing birds Kayaking Visiting water (other than ocean beach) Backpacking Snowboarding Rock climbing Visiting nature centers, etc Big-game hunting Mountain climbing Visiting ocean beach Sightseeing Visiting wilderness

19 Driving ATVs, off-road motorcycles, other OHVs growing rapidly Activity Total participants (millions), 2007 Percentage change in participants, Total days of participation (billions), 2007 Percentage change in total days, Viewing or photographing flowers and trees Viewing or photographing natural scenery Driving off-road Viewing or photographing other wildlife Viewing or photographing birds Kayaking Visiting water (other than ocean beach) Backpacking Snowboarding Rock climbing Visiting nature centers, etc Big-game hunting Mountain climbing Visiting ocean beach Sightseeing Visiting wilderness

20 OHV Sales are changing, as shown by these trends from 1998 to 2006 Year ATV OHM Total , , , , vs % 143% 99% 2003 vs % 0% 1.2% 2004 vs % -2% -3% 2005 vs % -7% -5% 1998 vs % 124% 85% Source: Motorcycle Sales Industry Report proprietary.

21 Technical, risk oriented activities showing growth, mostly in dedication Activity Total participants (millions), 2007 Percentage change in participants, Total days of participation (billions), 2007 Percentage change in total days, Viewing or photographing flowers and trees Viewing or photographing natural scenery Driving off-road Viewing or photographing other wildlife Viewing or photographing birds Kayaking Visiting water (other than ocean beach) Backpacking Snowboarding Rock climbing Visiting nature centers, etc Big-game hunting Mountain climbing Visiting ocean beach Sightseeing Visiting wilderness

22 A few other activities highlighted--decreasing = Change Activity Percent Participants Percent Days Picnicking Visiting Historic Sites Day Hiking Visiting Prehistoric sites Mountain Biking Cold Water Fishing Canoeing Rafting Downhill Skiing

23 A few other activities highlighted--increasing = Change Activity Percent Participants Percent Days Walking Family gatherings outdoors Swimming (not pools) Gathering mushrooms/berries Developed Camping Warmwater fishing

24 Within Nature-Based Recreation lays Forest Recreation Top 7 activities Walk for pleasure 7,493.3 View/photograph natural scenery 6,170.6 View/photograph wildflowers, trees, other wild plants species 4,858.9 View/photograph birds 3,738.3 View/photograph other wildlife 3,086.8 Day hiking on trails 1,234.8 Visit a wilderness/primitive area Nearly 60 percent of nature-based recreation occurs in forested settings---self reported Millions of activity days Forest Recreation Activity Number of Activity Days % Public Forest % in Urban Forests Walk for pleasure 7, View/photograph natural scenery View/photograph wildflowers, trees, etc. 6, , View/photograph birds 3, View/photograph other wildlife 3, Day hiking 1, Visit a wilderness or primitive area Off-highway driving Family gathering Visit nature centers, etc Gather mushrooms, berries, etc Mountain biking Picnicking Developed camping Big game hunting Primitive camping Backpacking Visit historic Sites Horseback riding on trails Small Game hunting Visit prehistoric/ archeological sites Snowmobiling Mountain climbing Cross country skiing Rock climbing Snowshoeing

25 Forest Recreation Urban forests are important resources for recreation As urban sprawl continues, more forest land becomes urban forest and is a mixture of public and private ownership Urban land is projected to rise from 3.1% of total U. S. land area to 8.1% by 2050 Forest-based recreation activities where 1/3 or more occurs in urban forests include walking, photographing flowers, hiking, family gatherings outdoors, visiting nature centers, picnicking, visiting historic sites, horseback riding on trails, and visiting archeological sites Roughly one-third of forest recreation occurs in urban forests (public and private) Forest Recreation Activity Number of Activity Days % Public Forest % in Urban Forests Walk for pleasure 7, View/photograph natural scenery 6, View/photograph wildflowers, trees, etc. 4, View/photograph birds 3, View/photograph other wildlife 3, Day hiking 1, Visit a wilderness or primitive area Off-highway driving Family gathering Visit nature centers, etc Gather mushrooms, berries, etc Mountain biking Picnicking Developed camping Big game hunting Primitive camping Backpacking Visit historic Sites Horseback riding on trails Small Game hunting Visit prehistoric/ archeological sites Snowmobiling Mountain climbing Cross country skiing Rock climbing Snowshoeing

26 Forest Recreation Public lands and forests are also important for recreation Almost 44 percent of the 751 million acres of forest in the U. S. is publicly owned and managed and is pretty much open to everyone Forest-based recreation activities where ½ or more occurs on public lands include visiting wilderness, day hiking, visiting nature centers, and backpacking Forest-based recreation activities where more than ½ occurs on private lands include, for example, small-game hunting, horseback riding, off-road driving, and gathering mushrooms and berries Roughly 60 percent of forest recreation occurs on public lands, and of course the other 40 percent is on private forest lands Forest Recreation Activity Number of Activity Days % in Public Forest % in Urban Forests Walk for pleasure 7, View/photograph natural scenery 6, View/photograph wildflowers, trees, etc. 4, View/photograph birds 3, View/photograph other wildlife 3, Day hiking 1, Visit a wilderness or primitive area Off-highway driving Family gathering Visit nature centers, etc Gather mushrooms, berries, etc Mountain biking Picnicking Developed camping Big game hunting Primitive camping Backpacking Visit historic Sites Horseback riding on trails Small Game hunting Visit prehistoric/ archeological sites Snowmobiling Mountain climbing Cross country skiing Rock climbing Snowshoeing

27 Visitation to Public Lands Level to Increasing A paper back in February in the PNAS said that public land visitation was in steep decline. But, agency data showed that state park, national park, and national wildlife refuge visitation actually has been relatively stable or increasing since the 90s. State park visitation in 2007 rose back above the former level reported in 2001 (a 0.7% increase) (National Association of State Park Directors, 2007). National Park visitation had been stable since 2001, but in 2007, visitation rose by almost three million. National wildlife refuge visitation has grown from 33 million in 1998 to over 40 million in 2007, growth of 21 percent Year Millions of Visits State Park Trend National Park Visitation Trend

28 Kids and the outdoors? What do we know?

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32 On how many of the past 7 days did you exercise or participate in physical activity for at least 20 minutes that made you sweat and breathe hard, such as basketball, soccer, running, swimming laps, fast bicycling, fast dancing, or similar aerobic activity? 11% 0 days 1 day 8% 2 days 10% 3 days 15% 4 days 13% 5 days 16% 6 days 10% 7 days 17% 56% indicated 4 or more days Gallup Panel Teens July 2008

33 National KIDS Outdoors Survey KIDS National KIDS Outdoors Survey A national household survey of youth 6 to 19 years of age NSRE sampling of household includes about 1 in 3 with one or more kids between 5 and 16 Interviews are by proxy for 5 15 year olds (parent, older sibling, etc.); 16 to 19 year olds are interviewed directly Interest is in kids activities outdoors, time spent, more or less than last year, reasons for less time, household demographics Adult available to take kids outside Early Survey Results NSRE

34 National Kids Survey On-going survey of Kids 6 15 to measure outdoor activity, lifestyles and constraints Age of young person 65% spend 2 or more hours outside on average weekdays Pct % spend 2 or more hours outside on average weekend day For most boys activities include just playing outdoors or hanging out; biking, jogging, walking, skate boarding, etc.; or playing or practicing team sports For most girls activities include just playing outdoors or hanging out; biking, jogging, walking, skate boarding, etc.; or studying or reading while sitting outdoors Other sports, e.g., tennis, golf, and attending camps, field trips, outdoor classes also important activities

35 National Kids Survey On-going survey of Kids 6 15 to measure outdoor activity, lifestyles and constraints Age of young person 65% spend 2 or more hours outside on average weekdays Pct % spend 2 or more hours outside Time on average weekend day For most boys activities include just outdoors playing outdoors or hanging out; biking, jogging, walking, compared skate boarding, to etc.; or playing or practicing team sports last year Percent About the same 46.3 For most girls activities include just playing outdoors or hanging out; biking, jogging, walking, skate More boarding, 37.5 etc.; or studying or reading while sitting outdoors Less 16.2 More is partly the effect of being a little older this year, than last year Other sports, e.g., tennis, golf, and attending camps, field trips, outdoor classes also important activities } 84%

36 Outdoor Activities of Youth 6 to 19 Years Old--- Notice different rates between males and females (of the 96 % who go outdoors) Outdoor Activity Male Female Total Most Popular Just playing outdoors or hanging out Biking, jogging, walking, skate boarding, etc Playing or practicing team sports Reading, studying while sitting outdoors Other sports, e.g., tennis, golf Attending camps, field trips, outdoor classes Nature Based Hiking, camping, fishing, etc Bird watching, wildlife viewing, etc Swimming, diving, snorkeling, etc Riding motorcycles, ATVs, other off-road vehicles Snow skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing Boating, jet skiing, water skiing, etc Rowing, kayaking, canoeing, surfing, etc

37 National Kids Survey Favorite activity % Just playing outdoors or hanging out 25.2 Playing/practicing team sports 21.9 Biking, jogging, walking, skate boarding, etc 18.9 Swimming, diving, snorkeling, etc 6.8 Reading, studying while sitting outdoors 6.3 Riding motorcycles, ATVs, other off-road vehicles 5.3 Playing/practicing other sports 4.5 Hiking, camping, fishing, etc. 4.2 Other 3.6 Attending camps, field trips, outdoor classes 1.2 Bird watching, wildlife viewing, nature study 0.9 Snow skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing 0.7 Boating, jet skiing, water skiing, etc 0.3 Rowing, kayaking, canoeing, surfing, etc 0.1

38 National Kids Survey Reason why for not spending more time outdoors Male Female Total Interested in music, art, reading, etc Interested in Internet, text messaging, etc Interested in video games, dvds and tv More involved in indoor sports Spend time at mall, shopping, hanging out Neighborhood does not have good access Don't have transportation Don't have anyone to play outdoors with It is not safe to play or do sports outside Was injured or developed a health problem

39 Homework, Cold weather, Weather, In school, Not enough time, Working, Other reasons Lazy, Too cold KIDS Other information about access to outdoors Adult accompany young person for rec activities Age 6-9 Age Age Age Tot al Young person has a tv in his/her room Young person has a computer in his/her room Will be adding physical fitness/health indicators and knowledge/attitude toward nature (Children s Environmental Motives Scale--CEMS)

40 Time Trends Trends in leisure time Between 1965 and 2003, average leisure hours increased 4-8 hours/week More for men than women Most of this increase happened before 1993; slight decline since Leisure inequality has increased People with college degree or higher have less leisure than in 1965 Less educated people have more leisure

41 National Time Use Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

42 National Transportation Survey No more miles, but more time spent in transit min min min.

43 Average cost of a gallon of gasoline, all grades averaged, as of June 2008 Travel Trends

44 National Household Travel Survey--NHA

45 = 50+ miles

46 Pleasure This category includes vacations, sightseeing excursions, as well as trips taken for the purposes of rest and relaxation, visiting friends and family or outdoor recreation. According to the Travel Industry Association s national travel surveys, the trend of more frequent trips of shorter duration or weekend travel is continuing. The average American family engaging in a two week vacation is severely inhibited by the ability to coordinate vacation schedules. What effects will the current recession have?

47 Climate Change and Tourism Direct Climate Effects Changes in Climate Warmer climate globally Increase in extreme weather events increased intensity of rainfall Changes in frequency more frequent droughts Sea level rise Warmer mountain climate melting glacier, rain versus snow Impacts on Tourism Increased infrastructure damage Additional emergency preparedness Higher operating expenses insurance, backup water and power Indirect Climate Effects Impact of climate on environmental processes Changes in water availability Biodiversity loss Altered agricultural production (e.g., food and wine tourism), Increased natural hazards, coastal erosion and inundation, Impacts on Tourism Reduce landscape aesthetic, fewer amenities at tourism sites Increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases Acknowledgements: Geoffrey Blate (AAAS S&T Policy Fellow at EPA), Mike Scott (USGS, UI), Anna Pidgorna (UI) for material and graphics, and the scientists cited in association each figure. Climate Change, Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism Sector

48 Climate: mean and variability of weather temperature & precipitation over a period of time in a particular geographic region Observed changes in US over past 100 years Temperature Annual vs. seasonal Mean, max., min., range Precipitation Annual vs. seasonal Form (snow vs. rain) Intensity Hydrology Sea level rise Ecological impacts Altered disturbance regimes Altered species distributions Altered phenologies

49 On Average, the US Warmed C in the Past 100 Years 20 th Century Mean U.S. Temperature Anomalies [Source: GISS/NASA]

50 Warming Trend Observed in Most of US Annual Mean US Temperature Trends Data from NOAA/NCDC; See:

51 Frost-Free Days Are Increasing Changes in frost days vs Tebaldi et al Climatic Change

52 Frost-Free Days Are Increasing Synthesis and Assessment Report 3.3 Weather and climate extremes in a changing climate

53 Precipitation Patterns Are Changing More precipitation from intense downpours More precipitation as rain vs. snow ( ) 0% +1% +1% +2% 1% 0% +2% +2% +1% -2.2 std devs LESS as snowfall +1 std dev MORE as snowfall Trends in proportion of annual precipitation of extreme intensity (> 2 per day): Karl & Knight 1998 Knowles et al. 2006

54 Earlier Onset of Spring Snowmelt and Less Snowpack Earlier snowmelt runoff Stewart et al., 2005 Less spring snowpack Mote, 2003 Snow season 16 days shorter in CA & NV ( )

55 Earlier Greenup of Vegetation First-bloom on lilacs, 7.5 days earlier over First bloom on honeysuckle, 10 days earlier over 27 years Correlated with warming March-April-May temperatures Cayan et al., 2001

56 Sea Levels Are Rising Along Most US Coasts Gulf Coast lands vulnerable to sea level rise Source: Source:

57 Altered Species Distributions 90% decline in pop. of Sooty Shearwater ( ) (Veit et al. 1997) CA shoreline species shifting northwards (Barry et al. 1995) Habitat loss for cold-water fishes (NRDC & Defend ers of Wildli fe 2002) Edith s checkerspot butterfly shifted range northward (Parmesan 1996, McLaughlin et al. 2002) Polar bears increasingly using coastal areas as sea ice melts and sea freezes later (Gleason et al. 2006, Schliebe et al. 2006)

58 Altered Phenology Colorado Rocky Mountains Robins arriving 14 days earlier in last 23 years, Yellow-bellied marmot emerging 38 days Southern Arizona Mexican jays breeding season advanced by average of 10 days from 1971 to 1993 Throughout North America Tree swallows breeding earlier by 9 days, warmer spring temperatures over Eastern US 89 of 100 flowering plants in Washington DC area blooming 4.5 days earlier in 2000 vs In Northeast, lilacs are blooming ~4 days earlier ( ) Japan Timing of cherry blossoms studied since 1400, show steady advancement since 1952 Europe Grape harvests over the last 500 years correlated with warming April- August temperatures Wolfe et al 2001, Abu-Asab et al., 2001, Inouye et al. 2000, Brown et al 1999, Dunn and Winkler 1999, Parmesan 2006

59 Hawaiian birds: Climate Change and Land Use Honey creepers evolved in the absence of mosquito-borne diseases; Malaria largely responsible for recent extinctions at lower elevations. Warmer temperatures allow mosquitoes to expand up elevation, loss of habitat. Land use reduced native bird habitat. Benning et al 2002

60 Influential Trends Unfolding Population Growth for U.S. (millions) Year 60 Population Growth for California (millions) U.S. California

61 A1 Climate Change Scenario

62 Projected Indexes of Change in Days, Trips, & Participants for Nonconsumptive Wildlife Activities, by Region & Decade Days Forecasts are being updated. Source is FS RPA Assessment. Projections for the Pacific Coast and Southern states are above other regions Year North South Rocky Mountain Pacific National Note: Baseline estimate of days in 1995 for National (7057.1), North (3319.3), South (2322.1), Rocky Mountain (578.9), and Pacific (838.5).

63 Summary and Implications of Trends Recreation activities widely popular in the 1950s through the 1980s are still popular However, there have been many profound changes over the last 50 years that affect what people choose to do (or not do) for their outdoor recreation The popularity of outdoor recreation continued to grow in the U.S. up to 2000, and it was changing, e.g., growing popularity of birding and motorized forms of activity. By 2000, interest in observing and studying/learning about nature emerging The most noticeable change by 2000 was growth in the proportion of the total population that participated in outdoor activities.

64 Overall Summary of Trends Emerging by 2000 was larger role of women in outdoor recreation, much more so than in previous decades Kids are the future. Most spend 2 or more hours outside daily doing a variety of activities with a great deal of just playing Video games, tv, internet, music, indoor sports, and hanging out at malls compete for kids time There is a scarcity of research about kids outdoors, but it appears outdoor activities are decreasing Outdoor recreation generally, and nature-based recreation especially, are growing still The mix of Americans activities, however, is changing over time, noticeably (viewing/photographing nature and motorized off-highway riding are growing) While OHV sales are declining, overall ownership is up Some traditional activities are declining, like picnicking, historic sites, canoeing, rafting

65 Overall Summary of Trends Public land visitation has been steady-toincreasing over time, and developed camping is still growing While leisure has increased, time devoted to outdoor recreation has decreased Greater time driving and higher gas prices affect outdoor recreation choices, and how people vacation ( Staycation ) People are taking more frequent, shorter duration trips

66 Climate: mean and variability of weather temperature & precipitation over a period of time in a particular geographic region Observed changes in US over past 100 years Temperature Annual vs. seasonal Mean, max., min., range Precipitation Annual vs. seasonal Form (snow vs. rain) Intensity Hydrology Sea level rise Ecological impacts Altered disturbance regimes Altered species distributions Altered phenologies

67 Tourism Implications Changing Recreation and Changing Climate

68 Recreation Demand and Climate Trends Climate, Weather, and Tourism Workshop East Carolina University Ken Cordell and Linda Joyce Forest Service Research and Development Athens, GA and Ft. Collins, CO November 14, 2008

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