Plan 2040 Mini-Retreat November 12th, 2009 Plan 2040 Process Overview ARC Board Retreat 11/12/09 1
Regional Assessment Consistent Themes Theme 1: Develop solutions that address the social, environmental and economicneeds of the region while protecting the region s resources and prosperity for future generations. Theme 2: Providing access to safe, affordable, and efficient transportation choices. Theme 3: Governing collaboratively to address fundingissues and effectively implement regional plans. Plan 2040 Ties Together Two Important Individual Efforts RDP and RTP Regional Development Plan RDP Integrates Diverse Local, Regional and State Issues Coordinates Local Comprehensive Plans and Development Rules Follows State Regional Planning Rules The UGPM Provides Framework For Regional Planning Decisions 2
Plan 2040 Ties Together Two Important Individual Efforts RDP and RTP Regional Transportation Plan Identifies Future Transportation Projects/Programs Required by Federal Government Helps Implement Growth Vision from RDP System Planning Concepts Form the Foundation of the RTP Plan 2040 Regional Assessment Examines Important Issues *Board Receives Draft Document January 2010 Population Economy and Workforce Housing Transportation Public Facilities Intergovernmental Issues Development and Design Energy Others issues as directed by ARC Board 3
s Include Economy Big Picture Current Economic Challenges Growth and Development Housing and Building Trends Transportation Financial Challenges Past Planning Overview Only Region Experiencing More Population Growth This Decade Dallas Metro Area Population Change 2000-2007 Rank Total Population 2007 Rank Dallas 1,138,476 1 6,144,489 4 Atlanta 1,128,271 2 5,271,550 8 Phoenix 1,030,012 3 4,179,427 9 Houston 1,012,726 4 5,629,127 5 Riverside 861,054 5 4,081,371 10 New York 683,407 6 18,815,988 1 Wash DC 562,065 7 5,306,125 7 Los Angeles 507,184 8 12,875,587 2 Las Vegas 490,211 9 1,836,333 13 Chicago 470,995 10 9,522,879 3 Orlando 410,027 11 2,032,496 12 Miami 406,780 12 5,413,212 6 Austin 402,855 13 1,593,400 15 Charlotte 371,274 14 1,650,667 14 Tampa 337,750 15 2,723,949 11 Decade s Growth Dwarfs That of Smaller Regional Business Centers 4
The Great Recession Is Over Business confidence diffusion index 40 30 20 10 YET Lehman 0-10 -20-30 Iraq invasion Bear Stearns -40 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 Source: Moody s Economy.com And Yet.. Unemployed for Over 26 Weeks Business Week," only 46 percent of people aged 16 to 24 had jobs last month --that is the lowest number since the government began tracking the data in 1948. 5
Atlanta MSA Job Change 0 Job Losses, August 2007 to August 2009 Job losses, in thousands -50-100 -150-200 -250-5.3% -11.7% -11% -7.6% -5.8% -7.4% -1.1% -4.3% -6.8% -2.3% -3.2% -6.1% -3.8% -1.6% -.0.8% -0.5% -300-350 -5.8% Jobs Peak: Nov 2007 from then to August 2009 233,819 JOBS Job Losses Concentrated In Key Sectors Employment Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 20,000 Job Change in Metro Atlanta by Industry August 2007 - August 2009 10,000 4.5% 1.1% 6.5% 4.7% 0-10,000-6.2% -8.2% -2.5% -8.1% -3.7% -2.6% -0.3% -20,000-14.9% -10% -9.2% -30,000-17% -14.4% -10.1% -40,000 27.8% -50,000 6
Percent Change in Average Annual Pay NINE MSAs in the whole country had a percent increase in (adjusted) average annual wage to match or exceed that CPI-U (20.4%) increase: Odessa, TX, Midland, TX, New Orleans, LA, Fort Hood-Kileen, TX Manhattan, KS, Houma, LA, Hinesville-Fort Stewart, GA, Jacksonville, NC, Fort Walton-Destin, FL Source : Census QWI Worst Post-War Job Loss Periods By % of Workforce Source: CoStar 7
Moody s MSA Forecast (Office Jobs) 3,000,000 Expected Employment Recovery 2,900,000 2,800,000 2,700,000 2,685,760 Total Employment 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 Avg. Annual Change Y Y-O- Avg. Annual Change Y-O-Y Low forecast: 35,767 1.54% Mid forecast: 60,866 2.62% High forecast: 75,371 3.25% 2,100,000 2,000,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ARC Emp High ARC Low 8
Housing Starts vs. Demand Monthly Building Permits Atlanta MSA Moody's Economy.com Building Permit Forecast* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Single-F 6,333 4,542 13,759 31,476 34,053 Multi-F 2,282 8,663 10,499 12,430 16,826 Total 8,615 13,205 24,258 43,906 50,879 *(Atlanta MSA 28-County) 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 GSU 18-County Forecast 2009 2010 2011 Total Per5,486 5,743 6,629 PEAK: 2004: 72,679 (20-County) 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1988-01-01 1988-09-01 1989-05-01 1990-01-01 1990-09-01 1991-05-01 1992-01-01 1992-09-01 1993-05-01 1994-01-01 1994-09-01 1995-05-01 1996-01-01 1996-09-01 1997-05-01 1998-01-01 1998-09-01 1999-05-01 2000-01-01 2000-09-01 2001-05-01 2002-01-01 2002-09-01 2003-05-01 2004-01-01 2004-09-01 2005-05-01 2006-01-01 2006-09-01 2007-05-01 2008-01-01 2008-09-01 2009-05-01 "Going forward," said Dhawan, "the Atlanta metro area will lack construction opportunities of sufficient number and size as the state's banking industry takes its time to recover." 9
Building Permit Trends (Regions) Percent Change 2008 2009 (through June) Atlanta Austin Boston Charlotte Chicago Dallas Houston Las Vegas Los Angeles Miami New York Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix Washington DC -90.0% -80.0% -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% Source: SOCDS Building Permit Trends (Atlanta Region) Percent Change 2008 2009 (through June) Walton Spalding Rockdale Paulding Newton Henry Hall Gwinnett Fulton Forsyth Fayette Douglas DeKalb Coweta Cobb Clayton Cherokee Carroll Bartow Barrow Atlanta (City) -100.0% -90.0% -80.0% -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% Source: SOCDS 10
Building Permits Recent History Land Area Peak to Total BP Thru Thru % (SQM) 1990 1995 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 % Change 2001-2008 June 08 June 09 Change Atlanta 132 6,794 6,649 6,893 9,726 7,974 10,779 9,297 2,370-8,409-78% 60,482 1,359 548-59.7% Cherokee 424 1,052 2,378 3,611 3,795 3,804 4,084 4,162 3,580 2,231 912-3,250-78% 26,179 545 186-65.9% Clayton 143 1,400 1,066 2,111 3,240 2,579 3,014 2,114 2,240 1,254 403-2,837-88% 16,955 306 29-90.5% Cobb 340 2,845 8,251 5,657 5,556 5,963 6,889 6,142 4,538 2,945 1,068-5,821-84% 38,758 777 221-71.6% DeKalb 268 3,646 2,715 7,575 7,237 5,106 6,719 6,336 4,555 4,912 3,782-3,793-50% 46,222 2,207 131-94.1% Douglas 199 559 682 1,342 3,059 2,145 1,874 1,915 1,863 916 584-2,475-81% 13,698 501 63-87.4% Fayette 197 817 1,156 1,001 921 907 955 911 650 470 114-887 -89% 5,929 68 27-60.3% Fulton (Minus Atlanta) 529 6,192 8,820 4,061 4,175 5,403 7,193 8,140 7,853 3,536 2,278-5,862-72% 42,639 1,454 274-81.2% Gwinnett 433 4,022 9,828 9,901 10,362 9,617 10,463 9,938 8,956 4,361 1,921-8,542-82% 65,519 976 400-59.0% Henry 323 1,292 2,133 3,781 4,689 4,466 3,855 3,903 3,165 2,418 710-3,979-85% 26,987 467 121-74.1% Rockdale 131 635 908 807 1,033 903 633 1,021 1,009 608 154-879 -85% 6,168 71 23-67.6% Coweta 443 817 1,327 2,164 1,659 1,994 1,984 2,057 1,847 1,378 451-1,713-79% 13,534 278 93-66.5% Forsyth 226 678 2,803 2,539 2,448 3,147 3,085 4,173 4,770 2,877 1,478-3,292-69% 24,517 1,273 339-73.4% Paulding 313 969 1,597 2,622 2,915 2,763 3,103 3,454 3,366 1,652 583-2,871-83% 20,458 323 122-62.2% Barrow 162 257 255 950 1,227 1,348 1,358 1,416 1,115 860 283-1,133-80% 8,557 227 50-78.0% Bartow 459 554 1,273 1,418 1,153 1,186 1,099 1,085 1,053 604 360-1,058-75% 7,958 234 77-67.1% Carroll 499 439 483 2,343 1,908 1,750 1,920 1,655 1,365 637 279-2,064-88% 11,857 189 33-82.5% Hall (1/) 394 630 1,214 1,805 1,830 1,830 1,758 2,029 1,505 1,301 738-1,291-64% 12,796 NA NA NA Newton 276 658 797 1,736 2,347 2,263 1,929 2,115 1,678 956 189-2,158-92% 13,213 123 28-77.2% Spalding 198 261 241 541 456 506 549 445 562 301 197-365 -65% 3,557 136 73-46.3% Walton 329 563 942 1,423 1,302 1,460 1,353 1,664 1,379 798 181-1,483-89% 9,560 132 31-76.5% 10-County 2,98722,460 37,937 46,641 50,716 47,786 55,405 52,556 49,188 32,948 14,296-41,109-74% 349,536 8,731 2,023-76.8% 20-County (2/) 6,28628,286 48,869 64,182 67,961 66,033 73,543 72,649 67,828 44,312 19,035-54,508-74% 475,543 11,646 2,869-75.4% Outer Ten (2/) 3,299 5,826 10,932 17,541 17,245 18,247 18,138 20,093 18,640 11,364 4,739-15,354-76% 126,007 2,915 846-71.0% Georgia 57,90641,251 72,225 93,059 97,523 96,704107,644109,336104,200 73,165 35,368-73,968-68% 716,999 20,994 8,432-59.8% 10-Cty % of State 5% 50% 52% 49% 51% 48% 47% 45% 40% 49% 42% 24% 20-Cty % of State 11% 69% 70% 68% 68% 66% 65% 61% 54% 66% 55% 34% Home Prices Case-Shiller Index Las Vegas Phoenix Miami Detroit San Francisco Los Angeles San Diego Tampa Minneapolis Composite-20 Washington DC Chicago Seattle Atlanta New York Portland Boston Cleveland Charlotte Denver Dallas -54.3% -53.9% -48.2% -45.3% -42.9% -41.3% -41.2% -40.8% -33.7% -31.3% -30.6% -25.9% -22.2% -21.2% -20.5% -20.4% -16.3% -13.9% -11.2% -9.5% -5.4% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% June 2009 11
Median Home Value 2009 Source : ESRI Demographics Foreclosures 2008 Source: RealtyTrac Top 100 U.S. Metro Foreclosure Market Data 2008 Rate Rank State Metro Name Total Properties with Filings %Housing Units (foreclosure rate) %Change from 2007 1 CA STOCKTON 21,127 9.46 99.16 2 NV LAS VEGAS 67,223 8.89 121.31 3 CA RIVERSIDE 112,284 8.02 117.02 4 CA BAKERSFIELD 16,208 6.17 115.42 5 AZ PHOENIX/MESA 97,684 6.02 220.77 6 FL FORT LAUDERDALE 47,387 5.95 127.81 7 FL ORLANDO 46,843 5.48 195.84 8 FL MIAMI 49,697 5.21 96.46 9 CA SACRAMENTO 39,876 5.2 67.74 10 MI DETROIT 38,106 4.52-7.67 11 FL SARASOTA 17,256 4.5 153.58 12 CA FRESNO 12,571 4.2 102.5 13 FL TAMPA 53,630 4.14 122.66 14 CA OAKLAND 38,797 4.09 99.34 15 CA SAN DIEGO 44,931 3.99 122.24 16 FL PALM BEACH 23,399 3.71 96.33 17 GA ATLANTA 67,007 3.26 33.29 18 TN-MS-AR MEMPHIS 17,245 3.21 52.73 19 CO DENVER 32,920 3.2 23.61 20 CA VENTURA 8,422 3.11 94.01 21 CA ORANGE 31,300 3.06 150.38 22 FL JACKSONVILLE 17,025 2.99 78.46 23 DC-MD-VA-WV WASHINGTONDC 50,148 2.97 160.79* 24 OH CLEVELAND 27,693 2.94-0.56 25 MI WARREN 30,817 2.92 42.63 12
Foreclosures The Latest Source: Equity Depot Through August Change 2008 2009 # % CHEROKEE 1,688 2,922 1,234 73.1% CLAYTON 5,004 6,415 1,411 28.2% COBB 5,276 8,151 2,875 54.5% DEKALB 9,228 11,521 2,293 24.8% DOUGLAS 1,846 2,642 796 43.1% FAYETTE 869 1,193 324 37.3% FULTON 12,665 15,976 3,311 26.1% GWINNETT 8,542 14,839 6,297 73.7% HENRY 3,143 4,543 1,400 44.5% ROCKDALE 1,294 1,784 490 37.9% 10-co Total 49,555 69,986 20,431 41.2% 2007 Months Supply of Vacant Lots 2007 Vacant Developed Lots (VDL) Carroll Jackson Dawson Fayette Paulding Walton Henry Bartow Spalding Hall Forsyth Newton Barrow Gwinnett Coweta Fulton Cherokee DeKalb Clayton Cobb Douglas Rockdale Fulton (North) Months of Supply Source: Metrostudy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 13
2009 Months Supply of Vacant Lots 2009 Vacant Developed Lots (VDL) Carroll Jackson Walton Newton Dawson Paulding Henry Douglas Rockdale Fayette Hall Bartow Clayton DeKalb Barrow Gwinnett Coweta Forsyth Fulton (South) Spalding Cherokee Cobb Fulton (North) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Months of Supply Source: Metrostudy Success: - Livable Centers Initiative (LCI) LCI flexes federal transportation funds $10 million over 10 years for studies $500 million for transportation funding $135 million programmed for 82 construction projects in 48 LCI communities 31 projects are under construction or have been constructed to date 14
Livable Centers Initiative 85,000 residential units, 19 million square feet of commercial and 38 million square feet of office space Despite increase in population and employment within these centers, per capita VMT and emissions are reduced 92% of LCI communities have adopted their LCI Study into their comprehensive plan 66% have developed LCI zoning districts 15
LCI Improving CO2 6,000 5,000 CO 2 lbs per capita per year 4,000 3,000 2,000 Existing Land Use LCI Plan 1,000 - Success: Air Quality Challenge Vehicle Emission Testing Programs Cleaner Fuels and Vehicles 16
W N S E Success: Expanded Regional Transit Proposed Transit Concept from 2000 RTP Express Bus Expansions (in Red) Local Bus Expansions I-75 #S Cobb Paulding I-20 Douglas I-85 I-575 Cherokee I-285 Fayette Coweta Forsyth I-985 SR 400 Fulton I-85 #S #S Gwinnett #S #S #S DeKalb #S Rockdale #S I-20 Clayton #S Henry I-75 Paulding.-, 20.-, 575 Cherokee.-, 75 Forsyth "!.-, 985 400.-, 85 Cobb Douglas Fulton.-, 85 Fulton.-, 285.-, 675 Clayton Fayette Coweta Freeways Current Local Bus Service Local Bus Service Expansions DeKalb Rockdale Henry.-, 75 Atlanta Regional Commission Copyright January 2000 Gwinnett.-, 20 Current Regional Transit Network Most of 25 Year Bus Concept Implemented in Less Than One Decade! Since 2000, six of the region s twelve transit systems began operations RTP Project Implementation Lags Project Implementation Rates Below 50% Most of Decade SR 316 / I-85 (constructed) 100% 90% Avg = 45% Avg = 66% Avg = 55% Avg = 44% Avg = 41% Avg = 37% 80% Percent 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% I-75/I-575 Managed Lanes (not constructed) 20% 10% 0% FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 Road / Bridge Bike / Ped Transit Other 17
Low Population Densities Characterizes the Atlanta Region Comparison With Nation s Largest Regions Low Population Densities Characterizes the Atlanta Region Comparison With Other Similarly Sized Regions 18
ARC Board and Committee Retreat Development Patterns Working Against Congestion Our Region s Low Densities Work Against Providing Congestion Relieving Transit Projects Atlanta has the lowest population density of any large region, making suburban, large-scale transit expansions uncompetitive for federal funding assistance Chicago has over 2.3 times the Population in a Urbanized Region Nearly the Same Size As Atlanta! Congestion Threatens Economic Competitiveness 2010 Off-Peak vs. Peak Car Travel Times to Downtown Atlanta Congestion Lowers the Number of People Who Can Access Downtown Atlanta in 40 minutes or less from 3 MILLION TO 1.3 MILLION 2010 Off-Peak vs. Peak Car Travel Times to Airport Congestion Lowers the Number of People Who Can Access Airport in 40 minutes or less from 2.1 MILLION TO 860,000 2010 Car Travel Times 19
ARC Board and Committee Retreat More Spaghetti on the Map? Limited Transit Options and Low Densities Lead to Heavy Automobile Use, Resulting in Congestion Levels Among the Nation s Worst 2010 Congestion 2040 Congestion A/B Roadway Level of Service C D E F Falling Behind on Transit Investments? Dallas Green Line (2009-2010) 25 miles, $1.3 billion Denver (2007) 19 miles, $880 million Charlotte (2007) 9.6 miles, $462 million 20
Not Just a Transportation Solution Dallas Green Line First Phase Completed September 2009, Rest in 2010 25 miles, $1.3 billion DowntownCarrollton, TX Segment Opening in 2010 Opportunities to Develop Plans Around Transit Expansions Falling Behind on Major Road Capacity Projects? % Freeway Lane Miles Increase from 2001-2007 Charlotte NC-SC Raleigh-Durham NC Phoenix AZ Nashville-Davidson TN Tampa-St. Petersburg FL Orlando FL Philadelphia PA-NJ-DE-MD Boston MA-NH-RI Chicago IL-IN Miami FL Jacksonville FL Seattle WA New York-Newark NY-NJ-CT Houston TX Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana CA Washington DC-VA-MD Atlanta GA Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX San Francisco-Oakland CA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Lane Mile Increase 2001-2007 21
Financial Capacity is Going Backwards In real terms, funding for both MARTA and GDOT is now less than in 2000 in $millions at FY2000 value $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 GDOT Motor Fuel Tax Receipts $448 $433 $438 $435 $491 $421 $368 $184 $214 $183 $201 $202 $208 $234 $411 $372 $278 $317 in $millions at FY2000 value $351 $254 FY 2000 FY 2001 FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 $300 $290 $280 $270 $260 $250 $240 $230 $220 MARTA Sales Tax Receipts $294.5 FY 2000 $295.0 FY 2001 $272.9 FY 2002 $254.6 $255.1 $260.1 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 Fiscal Year $279.8 FY 2006 $289.8 FY 2007 FY 2008 $276.1 $247.6 FY 2009 Prepaid Motor Fuel Tax Motor Fuel Excise Tax Federal Funding Picture is Troubling Cumulative HTF Deficit is Expected to be between $10-$15 Billion by end of 2010 22
An Expanding Region Equals Less, Not More Financial Capacity As Funds Are Diluted. Average Annual Revenues during RTP Periods $2,000 $1,800 $1,600 $1,675M $1,620 M $1,770M $1,400 $1,200 $1,385M $750 $770 $880 Millions $1,000 $655 $800 $600 $115 $305 $190 $330 $400 $200 $615 $620 $660 $560 $0 2000 RTP* 2002 RTP (2000 $)** 2004 RTP (2000 $)*** 2007 RTP (2000 $)**** Federal State Local and Other *TEA-21Transportation Bill 10 County MPO High-level O&M Forecasts 26 Year RTP (2000-2025) **TEA-21Transportation Bill 10 County MPO Updated Funding Forecasts Gov. Barnes' Transportation Choices Initiative Bond Program 23 Year RTP (2003-2025) ***TEA-21Transportation Bill 18 County MPO Gov. Perdue's Fast Forward Bond Program 26 Year RTP (2005-2030) ****SAFETEA-LUTransportation Bill 18 County MPO Fast Forward Bond Program Emergence of PPP's (I-75/575) More Accurate Long-Range O&M Forecasts 23 Year RTP (2008-2030) Plan 2040 Mini-Retreat November 12th, 2009 23