Glasgow - Past & Present

Transcription

1 Glasgow - Past & Present Big trends James Arnott From indicators to insights Anne Scoular Integrated public health profile David Walsh & Bruce Whyte

2 Themes of presentations What is improving? What s proving resistant to change? What s getting worse? Future trends and implications

3 Big trends

4 1971 CENSUS Shipbuilding, heavy engineering, textile and chemical manufacturing predominated until recently light engineering and electrical products now form one of the city s most important industrial features

5 FURTHERMORE large numbers of workers engaged in the distributive trades, the transport and communications industry, the manufacturing of food (including bread), drink and tobacco and of clothing and footwear

6 NOT TO FORGET a considerable number of people in the city are engaged in professional and scientific services

7 PERIOD OF CHANGE Decline of manufacturing but improved quality of employment for those in work Loss of population but increased size of age group The city used to follow now the city leads the conurbation

8 25-44 AGE GROUP % change Glasgow 23% 31% 35% Rest of Area 26% 28% 8% Scotland 26% 29% 12%

9 SOCIAL CLASS I&II I&II 1981 I&II 2001 % Change Glasgow 18% 38% +111% Rest of Area 28% 37% +32% Scotland 28% 37% +32%

10 OWNER-OCC O-O 1981 O-O 2001 % Change Glasgow 24% 49% +104% Rest of Area 33% 65% +97% Scotland 35% 63% +80%

11 INTERPRETATION Rapid change since 1980s involving a major period of adjustment Closing the gap with some but not all national rates Why?

12 From indicators to insights

13 from indicators to insight

14 local context Parkhead: Glasgow in microcosm 4 mines in central Parkhead Forge Decline in heavy industry Regeneration efforts 1957: Comprehensive Development Area 1976: GEAR ( Glasgow Eastern Area Renewal Project) 1980s onwards: Areas of Priority Treatment Priority Partnership Areas Social Inclusion Partnerships

15 definition of Parkhead

16

17 local context = community defined area

18 relationship to PC sectors

19 population estimates Total population in Parkhead, 1981, 1991 and ,000 8,000 7, ,000 Population 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 All ages <

20 health outcomes

21 all cause mortality* male Parkhead NHSGG Scotland female Parkhead NHSGG Scotland *rate/100,000 person-years at risk (standardised to 2001 NHSGG population)

22 ischaemic heart disease mortality* Parkhead NHSGG Scotland Parkhead NHSGG Scotland male female *rate/100,000 person-years at risk (standardised to 2001 NHSGG population)

23 all cancer mortality* male Parkhead NHSGG Scotland female Parkhead NHSGG Scotland *rate/100,000 person-years at risk (standardised to 2001 NHSGG population)

24 all cancer incidence* Parkhead NHSGG Scotland Parkhead NHSGG Scotland male female *rate/100,000 person-years at risk (standardised to European standard population)

25 health determinants: environment

26 commercial properties within community defined area Property type Other premises Hostel/guest house Community centre/hall Advertising station Ground Store Betting offices/churches Other community resource Public house Workshop/factory/yard Office Shop Source: Glasgow City Council Financial Services, January 2005

27 Parkhead Cross Retail Profile Food/convenience store Take away Clothing Leisure Hairdresser Newsagent Pharmacy Furniture Dentist Lawyer Flowers Source: Parkhead Cross Economic Regeneration Project Final Report, 2002

28 retail environment

29 retail environment

30 trends in vacant & derelict land

31 from this.

32 to this

33 or this?

34 conclusions routine data applicable to socially defined place determinant data surveys COA level detailed health outcome data clearly show Parkhead s health trajectory understanding pathways & interactions understanding lived experiences information for action

35 acknowledgements Karen Lorenzetti NHSGG Tricia Richardson NHSGG Khalid Bashir NHSGG Sarah McCullough NHSGG Janice Scouller NHSGG Lorraine Tulloch Glasgow City Council Alan Grosvenor Glasgow City Council Diane McGregor Glasgow City Council Suzie Kemsell Glasgow City Council David Walsh Health Scotland Bruce Whyte Health Scotland Ian Henton Health Protection Scotland Parkhead Housing Association Parkhead Youth Project Parkhead Health Centre East End Partnership

36 Integrated public health profile

37 Areas of analysis Historical context Population dynamics Economy Social environment Physical environment Behaviour Pregnancy & childbirth Children s health Health & function Illness & disease

38 Historical context/ Population dynamics

39 Population Glasgow's Population; Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports ( ) 1,200,000 1,000,000 Estiamted Population 800, , , ,000 Major city extensions Local Gov Districts introduced Unitary Councils introduced

40 Births Trends in Births and Births per 1,000 population in Glasgow; Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972) Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports ( ) Births Births per 1,000 population 5000 Births Births per 1,000 population

41 Births & Deaths Deaths and Births per 1,000 population in Glasgow; Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports ( ) Births per 1,000 population Deaths per 1,000 population Deaths per 1,000 population

42 Infant deaths Infant Deaths (under 1 year) per 1,000 births in Glasgow; Source: Reports of Medical Officer of Health (1898, 1925,1926,1972); Registrar General of Scotland's Annual Reports ( ) Infant Deaths per 1,000 births Infant deaths (per 1,000 births), Glasgow & selected English cities Report of Medical Officer of Health of the City of Glasgow, Glasgow London Birmingham Liverpool Manchester

43 Inequalities Death rates in Glasgow's Sanitary Districts; 1901 Source: Report of the Medical Officer of Health of the City of Glasgow High St and Closes West Port Dundas Cowcaddens Brownfield Crosshill Hillhead Pollokshields West and Bellahouston Pollokshields and Strathbungo Govanhill Kelvinhaugh and Sandyford Blythswood Possilpark and Barnhill Monteith Row Woodside Maryhill Bellgrove and Dennsitoun Exchange Kingston Springburn and Rockvilla Hutcheson Square Greenhead and London Road St Andrew Square St Rollox Laurieston Anderston Barrowfield Bridgegate and Wynds Gorbals Calton St Enoch Square High St and Closes East Langside and Mount Florida Glasgow Kelvinside Deaths per 1,000 population

44 Inequalities Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised; ; West of Scotland and Glasgow communities Source: NHS HS - Communtiy Health Profiles, 2004 (from GROS data) 965 Bridgeton & Dennistoun South West Glasgow East Kilbride Strathkelvin Clydesdale South Ayrshire Cumbernauld Renfrew & West Renfrewshire Lomond North Ayrshire East Ayrshire Greater Shawlands Hamilton Cambuslang and Rutherglen Glasgow West End South East Glasgow Wishaw Motherwell Clydebank & Drumchapel Inverclyde Airdrie & Coatbridge Paisley and Levern Valley Eastern Glasgow Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Community Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Eastwood Scotland

45 Inequalities Death rates per 100,000 population, directly age standardised; Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from GROS data) 1475 Dalmarnock Calton Bearsden - Kessington Clarkston Carmunnock Cathcart Milngavie - Keystone; Dougalston Milngavie - Barloch Houston Croftfoot; Linn Park Eaglesham Ibrox Parkhead N Fullarton Ferguslie Park Townhead Ruchill Hamiltonhill Kinning Park S Kilmacolm Scotland Age standardised death rate per 100,000

46 Life expectancy Expected future years of life at birth by gender for Glasgow; to Source: The Report of the Medical Officer for Health, Glasgow, 1925; ONS Males Females 69.1 Expected future years of life at birth

47 Life expectancy 78 Male Life Expectancy at Birth (years); West of Scotland Council Areas vs Scotland; to Source: Office for National Statistics 76 Life Expectancy at birth Gap between best and worst = 6.5 years Gap between best and worst = 8.1 years Council Scotland Glasgow City East Renfrewshire East Dunbartonshire

48 Healthy Life Expectancy Life Expectancy vs Healthy Life Expectancy* at Birth, Males, Source: ISD Scotland Life Expectancy at birth 10 0 Scotland Glasgow City East Ayrshire North Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Inverclyde North Ayrshire Renfrewshire South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire West of Scotland Council Area * defined as absence of Limiting Longterm Illness (LLI) HLE at birth Years of life with a LLI

49 Economy

50 Children in workless households % of dependent children living in households where no-one is in employment; 2001; West of Scotland and Glasgow communities Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from 2001 Census data) Eastwood Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Strathkelvin East Kilbride Renfrew & West Renfrewshire Clydesdale South Ayrshire Cumbernauld Lomond East Ayrshire Hamilton Inverclyde Paisley and Levern Valley Cambuslang & Rutherglen Motherwell Wishaw North Ayrshire Airdrie & Coatbridge Glasgow West End Greater Shawlands South East Glasgow Eastern Glasgow Clydebank & Drumchapel South West Glasgow Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Bridgeton & Dennistoun Scotland Community

51 Children in workless households % of dependent children living in households where no-one is in employment; 2001 Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest, and lowest, rates Source: NHSHS Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from 2001 Census data) Bridgeton E Clarkston Bearsden - Kilmardinny Houston Lenzie S; Auchinloch Milngavie - Barloch Giffnock Broom; Kirkhill; Mearns Kilmarnock Doonfoot; Alloway Bearsden - Kessington Drumchapel NE Ruchill Ibrox Easterhouse W Townhead Hamiltonhill Parkhead S Dalmarnock Tradeston; Gorbals Scotland

52 Unemployment Unemployment claimant count expressed as percentage of working age population - West of Scotland local authority areas, Source: NOMIS 14.0 Glasgow City % of working age population West Dunbartonshire Inverclyde East Ayrshire North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Scotland South Lanarkshire South Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire

53 Income support % of population over 16 claiming Income Support; West of Scotland Councils, Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (originally from DWP) East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire South Ayrshire Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire East Ayrshire North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Inverclyde West Dunbartonshire Glasgow City Scotland % of population 16+

54 Free school meals Primary school pupils entitled to free school meals, by West of Scotland local authority, Source: Scottish Executive Education Department 60.0 Glasgow City West Dunbartonshire 50.0 North Ayrshire Inverclyde North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Scotland South Lanarkshire South Ayrshire East Renfrewshire East Dunbartonshire

55 House Prices Trend Average House Price, Glasgow City & Scotland Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics 120, , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Scotland Glasgow City

56 Social environment

57 Lone parents Lone parent households with dependent children, Glasgow & West of Scotland communities, 2001 Source: 2001 Census Bridgeton & Dennistoun South East Glasgow South West Glasgow Clydebank & Drumchapel Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Clydesdale East Kilbride South Ayrshire Renfrew & West Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Lomond Cumbernauld Hamilton Wishaw Airdrie & Coatbridge Motherwell North Ayrshire Inverclyde Paisley and Levern Valley Cambuslang & Rutherglen Greater Shawlands Glasgow West End Eastern Glasgow Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Strathkelvin Scotland Eastwood % of all households with dependent children

58 Lone parents Lone parent households with dependent children Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest, and lowest, rates, 2001 Source: 2001 Census Bearsden - Kessington Bishopbriggs N; Cadder Giffnock Bearsden - Kilmardinny Cathcart Dumbreck Clarkston Kilmarnock Cumbernauld Village; Dullatur Glen Fruin Easterhouse W Bridgeton E Dalmarnock Castlemilk E Govan Tradeston; Gorbals Hamiltonhill Drumchapel NE Parkhead S Townhead Scotland Howwood % of all households with dependent children

59 Education Estimated new student participation rates in Higher Education, West of Scotland and Glasgow communities, 2001/ /04 (annual average rate) Source: HESA Eastwood M'yhill/Woodside/N.Glasgow Clydebank and Drumchapel South West Glasgow Bridgeton and Dennistoun Eastern Glasgow Wishaw Airdrie and Coatbridge Motherwell Cumbernauld East Ayrshire Inverclyde South East Glasgow Cambuslang and Rutherglen North Ayrshire Paisley and Levern Valley Clydesdale Hamilton Lomond East Kilbride Renfrew and West Renfrewshire Greater Shawlands South Ayrshire Glasgow West End Strathkelvin Anniesl'd/Bearsden/Milngavie Scotland New student participation rates

60 Education Trends in (estimated) new student participation rates in Higher Education, Selected West of Scotand communities, 1998/ /03 (annual average rates) Source: HESA 80% Eastwood New student participation rates 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1998/ / / /03 Anniesland, Bearsden and Milngavie Scotland West of Scotland Inverclyde Motherwell Eastern Glasgow Bridgeton and Dennistoun South West Glasgow Clydebank and Drumchapel

61 Crime All crimes per 10,000 population, Glasgow City & Scotland, Source: Scottish Executive Glasgow Scotland

62 Crime 350 Crime rates (selected categories), Glasgow City, Source: Scottish Executive 300 Rate per 10,000 population Fire-raising,vandalism etc Drug Related Crime Serious Violent Crime 50 Domestic Housebreaking

63 Violent crime - offenders Violent offenders per 1,000 population, Glasgow City, July June 2005 Datazones with 10 highest rates vs. datazones with 10 lowest rates (over 3 years) Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police Kingston Jordanhill Jordanhill Newlands Partick Newlands Hayburn Victoria Park Crookston Garrowhill Govan Calton Toryglen Queenslie Pollokshaws Anderston Royston Royston Knightswood Park Jordanhill Location of datazone (named after relevant electoral ward) Violent offenders per 1000 population

64 Violent crime - victims Victims of violent crime per 1,000 population, Glasgow City, July June 2005 Datazones with 10 highest rates vs. datazones with 10 lowest rates (over 3 years) Source: Violence Reduction Unit, Strathclyde Police Toryglen Kingston Hyndland Carmunnock Maxwell Park Victoria Park Newlands Hyndland Cathcart Partick Hyndland Anderston Royston Queenslie Pollokshaws Pollokshaws Royston Cowlairs Cowlairs Jordanhill Location of datazone (named after relevant electoral ward) Victims per 1000 population

65 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 22.8% Fear of crime Fear of Crime - percentage of respondents stating they don t feel safe walking in their neighbourhood alone after dark, West of Scotland council areas, Source: Scottish Household Survey 32.4% 32.9% 33.3% 30.5% 28.6% 26.5% 24.0% 21.7% 20.1% 17.0% 35.6% Glasgow City East Dumbartonshire South Ayrshire East Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire East Ayrshire North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Renfrewshire West Dumbartonshire Inverclyde Scotland

66 Physical environment

67 Overcrowding Proportion of households classed as overcrowded, West of Scotland and Glasgow Communities, 2001 Source: Census/NHSHS Community profiles Bridgeton & Dennistoun Glasgow West End Eastern Glasgow South East Glasgow Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Clydesdale North Ayrshire Cumbernauld East Ayrshire Renfrew & West Renfrewshire Lomond Cambuslang & Rutherglen Hamilton Paisley and Levern Valley Motherwell Wishaw Inverclyde Airdrie & Coatbridge Clydebank & Drumchapel Greater Shawlands South West Glasgow South Ayrshire East Kilbride Strathkelvin Eastwood Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Scotland % of households

68 House condition Estimated numbers of properties with damp, condensation, mould, poor National Home Energy Rating (NHER), Greater Glasgow 2002 Source: SHCS ,000 41, Number of properties ,500 27, Rising/penetrating damp Poor NHER Condensation Mould

69 Proximity to Derelict Land Proximity to Derelict Sites; % of people within 0-500m of any derelict site; 2004; West of Scotland Councils & Scotland From SNS web site; Original source: Scottish Vacant and Derelict Land Survey West Dunbartonshire Glasgow City East Dunbartonshire East Ayrshire South Lanarkshire South Ayrshire East Renfrewshire Inverclyde Renfrewshire North Ayrshire North Lanarkshire Scotland % of people within 0-500m of any derelict site

70 Behaviour

71 Alcohol related mortality Numbers of alcohol related deaths, NHS Greater Glasgow, Principal ("underlying") and secondary ("contributing") causes of death Source: GRO(S) Number of deaths Male Female Total

72 Alcohol hospitalisations Alcohol related & attributable hospital admissions by Glasgow "community", age-standardised rates, 1990/ /01 Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop 3, , , , , Bridgeton & Dennistoun Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow South West Glasgow South East Glasgow Eastern Glasgow Cambuslang & Rutherglen Clydebank & Drumchapel Greater Shawlands Glasgow West End Scotland Strathkelvin Eastwood Anniesl'd/Bearsdn/Milngavie

73 Alcohol hospitalisations Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop 4, , , , , , , , Alcohol related & attributable hospital admissions for West of Scotland small areas (with lowest & highest rates in 1999/2001), age-standardised rates, 1990/ /01 Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland Townhead Ayr - Harbour and W Town Centre Tradeston; Gorbals Dalmarnock Hamiltonhill Bridgeton E Ibrox Govan Easterhouse W Ferguslie Park Scotland Scotland Scotland Clarkston Clarkston Hyndland; Dowanhill Hyndland; Dowanhill Lugton; Dunlop Lugton; Dunlop Bearsden Kessington Bearsden - Kessington Houston Houston Milngavie Milngavie - Keystone; Keystone; Dougalston Dougalston Kilmacolm Kilmacolm Cathcart Cathcart Bearsden Bearsden - Kilmardinny Kilmardinny Broom; Broom; Kirkhill; Kirkhill; Mearns Mearns

74 Liver cirrhosis mortality Liver cirrhosis mortality age standardised rates among men aged years Scotland in context of maximum, minimum, and mean rates for 16 Western European countries Source: WHOSIS (Dec 2004) Rate per population per year ICD 6/7: A105 ICD8: A102 ICD9: B347 ICD10: K70, K73, K74 Greater Glasgow Maximum Mean Minimum 0 Scotland's rank: Year of death

75 Smoking Percentage of adults smoking, 1999/ /04 Source: Scottish Household Survey Glasgow City Scotland / / /2004

76 Sexually Transmitted Infections Acute Sexually Transmitted Infection Rates, Greater Glasgow & Scotland Source: ISD Scotland Crude rate per 100, year-olds Greater Glasgow Scotland

77 Obesity % of adults classed as obese (BMI>30), Greater Glasgow, 1995, 1998 & 2003 Source: Scottish Health Surveys Males Females Ages Ages Ages 16+

78 Travel Travel to work/study by bicycle/foot and car, 2001 Source: 2001 Census North Ayrshire Inverclyde Renfrewshire North Lanarkshire East Ayrshire South Lanarkshire South Ayrshire East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire bike/foot car % of population working/studying* Scotland Glasgow City West Dunbartonshire * Excludes those working/studying at home

79 Travel Estimates of traffic volume in vehicle kilometres, Source: SE - Scottish Transport Statistics Glasgow City North Lanarkshire Million Vehicle Kilometres South Lanarkshire Renfrewshire East Ayrshire South Ayrshire North Ayrshire East Renfrewshire West Dunbartonshire Inverclyde East Dunbartonshire

80 Pregnancy & childbirth

81 Smoking during pregnancy % Maternal smoking at hospital booking, Glasgow & West of Scotland communities Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from ISD data) Greater Shawlands Strathkelvin East Kilbride Renfrew & West Renfrewshire Cumbernauld Lomond Clydesdale South Ayrshire Inverclyde Glasgow West End Cambuslang & Rutherglen Hamilton South East Glasgow East Ayrshire Motherwell Airdrie & Coatbridge Paisley and Levern Valley North Ayrshire Eastern Glasgow Wishaw South West Glasgow Bridgeton & Dennistoun Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Clydebank & Drumchapel Community Scotland Eastwood % of women

82 Parkhead Parkhead N Drumchapel Drumchapel NE NE Smoking during pregnancy % Maternal smoking at hospital booking, Glasgow/West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from ISD data) Bearsden - Kessington Giffnock Carmunnock Carmunnock Kilmacolm Kilmacolm Milngavie Milngavie - Keystone; Keystone; Dougalston Dougalston Doonfoot; Doonfoot; Alloway Alloway Houston Houston Milngavie Milngavie - Barloch Barloch Broom; Broom; Kirkhill; Kirkhill; Mearns Mearns Knightswood Knightswood S Nitshill Nitshill Ibrox Ibrox Easterhouse Easterhouse W Castlemilk Castlemilk W Drumchapel Drumchapel W Penilee Penilee Faifley Faifley Scotland Clarkston

83 Smoking during pregnancy % Maternal smoking at hospital booking, * Source: ISD Scotland Scotland Greater Glasgow * 2004 data are provisional

84 Smoking during pregnancy % Maternal smoking at booking by deprivation, NHS Greater Glasgow * Source: ISD Scotland Deprivation Quintile 5 (most deprived) (least deprived) * 2004 data are provisional

85 Breastfeeding % breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, West of Scotland and Glasgow communities Source: NHSHS - Community Health Profiles (from ISD data) Eastwood Glasgow West End Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Strathkelvin Greater Shawlands Clydebank & Drumchapel Bridgeton & Dennistoun Hamilton South West Glasgow Inverclyde North Ayrshire Cumbernauld East Ayrshire Cambuslang & Rutherglen Paisley and Levern Valley Clydesdale Lomond East Kilbride Renfrew & West Renfrewshire South Ayrshire South East Glasgow Community Airdrie & Coatbridge Eastern Glasgow Motherwell Wishaw Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Scotland

86 Breastfeeding % breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, Glasgow/West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHS HS - Community Health Profiles, 2004 (from ISD data) Easterhouse E Bridgeton E Carntyne Easterhouse W Drumchapel NE Drumchapel W Dalmarnock Ferguslie Park Stevenston Kilmacolm Bearsden - Kilmardinny Lugton; Dunlop Milngavie - Barloch Broomhill Hillhead Partickhill Kelvindale; Kelvinside Kelvin N Hyndland; Dowanhill Scotland Parkhead N

87 Breastfeeding Breastfeeding at 6-8 weeks, NHS Greater Glasgow, Source: ISD Scotland % babies breastfed at 6-8 weeks Greater Glasgow Scotland Note: 2004 figures are provisional

88 Teenage pregnancy Teenage Pregnancies (13-19) for selected West of Scotland Councils, 1991/ /03 Source: ISD Scotland Rate per 100 women aged Glasgow City East Ayrshire Scotland South Lanarkshire East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire / / / / / / / / / / / /03 * 2002/03 data are provisional

89 Children

90 North Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire Looked after Children Looked after children - rate per year-olds, 2004 Source: Care Scotland Glasgow City East Dunbartonshire East Renfrewshire South Lanarkshire North Lanarkshire South Ayrshire Inverclyde East Ayrshire Renfrewshire West of Scotland Scotland Rate per 1, year-olds

91 Looked after Children Looked after children - rate per 1000, three year rolling average, Source: Care Scotland Rate per 1000 children aged Scotland West of Scotland Glasgow City

92 Smoking, drinking & drug use Smoking, alcohol & drug use among 13 and 15 year-olds in Greater Glasgow, 2002 Source: SALSUS % of year-olds Regular smoker drunk alcohol in past week taken drugs in past month males females

93 Dental health Percentage of 5 year-olds with no decayed/missing/filled teeth ('zero caries'), Scotland & Greater Glasgow 1987/ /04 Source: NDIP & SHBDEP % with no dental caries / / / / / / / / / /04 Scotland Greater Glasgow

94 Dental health Dental decay: % of 5 year-old children with obvious/advanced decay (risk level 2-3) by LHCC area, Greater Glasgow Source: NDIP Drumchapel Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Eastwood Camglen Strathkelvin South East Glasgow Glasgow West End Gt Shawlands Clydebank Eastern Glasgow Dennistoun North Glasgow Bridgeton Maryhill Woodside South West Glasgow Greater Glasgow

95 Health & function

96 Adults unable to work due to illness/disability Percentage of adults unable to work due to illness/disability, Glasgow/West of Scotland communities, 2000 Source: NHSHS Community Profiles/DWP Eastwood East Kilbride Strathkelvin South Ayrshire Lomond East Ayrshire Clydesdale Renfrew & West Renfrewshire Cumbernauld North Ayrshire Glasgow West End Greater Shawlands Paisley and Levern Valley Hamilton Inverclyde Motherwell Cambuslang and Rutherglen Clydebank & Drumchapel South East Glasgow Airdrie & Coatbridge Wishaw South West Glasgow Eastern Glasgow Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Bridgeton & Dennistoun Scotland Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Community

97 Adults unable to work due to illness/disability % of adults unable to work due to illness/disability, 2000 Glasgow & West of Scotland small areas with 10 highest and 10 lowest rates Source: NHS HS - NHSHS Community Profiles/DWP Dalmarnock Glen Fruin Broom; Kirkhill; Mearns Bearsden - Castlehill; Thorn Milngavie - Barloch Helensburgh; Rhu Bearsden - Kilmardinny Clarkston Giffnock Cumbernauld Village; Dullatur Ibrox Hutchesontown; Gorbals; Oatlands Parkhead N Castlemilk W Carntyne Parkhead S Hamiltonhill Bridgeton E Calton Hyndland; Dowanhill Scotland

98 Adults unable to work due to illness/disability Adults unable to work due to illness/disability Incapacity benefit/severe disability allowance claimants, Source: DWP 40.0 Claimants as % of working age population Glasgow Scotland

99 Illness & disease

100 Heart disease mortality Ischaemic Heart Disease: age standardised death rates, males (15-74) Scotland and large Health Boards, Source: GRO(S) Greater Glasgow Scotland Tayside Lothian Grampian Rateper 100,00 populationg per year

101 Diabetes Admissions to hospital for diabetes by Glasgow "community", age-standardised rates, 1991/ /02 Source: ISD Scotland/NHS Health Scotland Age standardised rate per 100,000 pop 1, , , Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow Greater Shawlands Strathkelvin South East Glasgow Bridgeton & Dennistoun Eastern Glasgow Cambuslang & Rutherglen Scotland Glasgow West End Eastwood Clydebank & Drumchapel South West Glasgow Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngav ie

102 Deliberate self harm Hospital admissions for deliberate self harm, average annual age-standardised rates, , Glasgow & West of Scotland communities Source: ISD Scotland/NHSHS Community Profiles Scotland East Kilbride Anniesland/Bearsden/Milngavie Eastwood Hamilton Strathkelvin South West Glasgow Clydesdale Cambuslang & Rutherglen Renfrew & West Renfrewshire Cumbernauld Glasgow West End Lomond Inverclyde South East Glasgow Eastern Glasgow Greater Shawlands Motherwell Airdrie & Coatbridge South Ayrshire Paisley and Levern Valley Bridgeton & Dennistoun Wishaw Clydebank & Drumchapel North Ayrshire East Ayrshire Maryhill/Woodside & N Glasgow age standardised rates per 100,000 population

103 Summary

104 What s getting better? Life expectancy increasing overall Downward trends in: smoking unemployment teenage pregnancies some crimes dental health of children breastfeeding some specific causes of death Improvements in some aspects of housing More entrants to higher education

105 What s proving resistant to change? Some behaviours e.g. dental health of children breastfeeding Many features of the circumstances in which people live e.g. Poverty/low income Looked after children Levels of disability adults unable to work healthy life expectancy

106 What s getting worse? Alcohol related illness Obesity levels Sexually transmitted disease Traffic levels Violent crime Inequalities in many health related areas

107 Glasgow - Past & Present Big trends James Arnott From indicators to insights Anne Scoular Integrated public health profile David Walsh & Bruce Whyte

108 Glasgow - Future

109 Population projections Projected Population Changes in Scotland, , Scotland and West of Scotland Local Authorities Source: GRO(S) 5.8 East Renfrewshire North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Dunbartonshire South Ayrshire -6.9 North Ayrshire West Dunbartonshire East Ayrshire Renfrewshire Inverclyde -5.3 Glasgow City -2.4 SCOTLAND % Change in overall population

110 Population projections Population Projections for Glasgow, all persons by age band, 2002 vs 2018 (Source: GROS) Thousands & over Age Group

111 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 72% 64% Dependency ratios Dependency Ratio Projections for Scotland and WoS Councils, 2002 and 2018 Source: derived from GROS data % 84% 78% 78% 78% 74% 75% 75% 69% 69% 66% 67% 68% 66% 64% 64% 63% 61% 58% 57% 72% 90% Glasgow City North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Inverclyde East Renfrewshire East Dunbartonshire North Ayrshire South Ayrshire SCOTLAND Dependency Ratio (%)

112 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 39% 33% 42% Single person households Projected change in % of single adult households, West of Scotland Councils, 2002 vs 2016 Source: GRO(S) 49% % 31% 32% 29% 26% 25% 41% 39% 37% 38% 38% 34% 31% 31% 32% 30% 42% 42% 35% 35% East Renfrewshire East Dunbartonshire East Ayrshire South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire North Lanarkshire North Ayrshire Renfrewshire West Dunbartonshire Inverclyde Glasgow City Scotland

113 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 33% 23% 37% Lone parent households Projected change in lone parent households West of Scotland councils, 2002 vs Source: Register General Office of Scotland % 41% 39% 36% 37% 33% 33% 31% 29% 23% 24% 22% 20% 21% 20% 29% 27% 27% 25% 14% 14% East Renfrewshire East Dunbartonshire East Ayrshire South Ayrshire South Lanarkshire Renfrewshire Inverclyde North Lanarkshire West Dunbartonshire North Ayrshire Glasgow City Scotland % of all households with children

114 Traffic Growth Background traffic growth from 2001, Scotland & Glasgow* Source: Scottish Executive % growth from Scotland Glasgow City * all traffic originating from Glasgow City

115 Alcohol Alcohol related mortality, Greater Glasgow: deaths and projections Source: GRO(S)/NHSHS Number/projected no. of deaths

116 Life expectancy Male Life Expectancy at Birth (years); West of Scotland Council Areas vs Scotland; Trend: to ; Projections: to Source: Office for National Statistics & Health Scotland Life Expectancy at birth Council Scotland Glasgow City East Dunbartonshire