The Importance of Service Frequency to Attracting Ridership: The Cases of Brampton and York
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1 The Importance of Service Frequency to Attracting Ridership: The Cases of Brampton and York Jonathan English Columbia University CUTA Conference May 2016
2 Introduction Is density the most important determinant of transit system success? Can transit be successful in areas with relatively low density and a suburban built form? Do service increases and reductions affect ridership? The goal is to find natural experiments that can answer these questions
3 The Region Source: Wikimedia
4 The Comparison York Region Transit Focused expansion on major corridors, including pioneering Viva BRT Tailored service to demand on secondary corridors Brampton Transit Developed grid network of high-service bus routes
5 High Frequency Routes York Brampton Green = 20 Min Max Headway to Midnight, Mon to Sat (to 10pm on Sun) Grey = 20 Min Max Headway to Midnight, Mon to Sat (to 10pm on Sun) Source: Public Schedules and Google Earth
6 Principal Findings Increased service improves ridership performance Network effect means that comprehensive network of high-service routes, rather than focus on select corridors, produces largest ridership gains Well-designed service improvements can be undertaken while maintaining stable fare recovery
7 Brampton vs York Service Vehicle Kilometres/Capita York Brampton Source: CUTA Fact Book
8 Brampton vs York Ridership Brampton: +57.7% Riders/Capita York: +29.7% Brampton York Source: CUTA Fact Book
9 Brampton Ridership vs Service Riders/Capita Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book
10 YRT Ridership vs Service Riders/Capita *Figures affected in 2008 by strike and in by strike and subsequent two months of free fares Ridership/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book
11 Brampton Fare Recovery Ratio Operating Rev as % of Operating Cost 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book
12 YRT Fare Recovery Ratio Operating Rev as % of Operating Cost 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% *Figures affected in 2008 by strike and in by strike and subsequent two months of free fares Recovery Ratio Vehicle Hours/Capita Vehicle Hours/Capita Source: CUTA Fact Book
13 Effect on Individual Routes The following slides will explore the effect of the service changes on a sample of individual routes They have been selected for their comparability The data sources are 2005 and 2016 timetables of York Region Transit and Brampton Transit
14 Highway 7 BRT and local routes in both Brampton and York Both major commercial arteries surrounded by single-family residences, serving major employment areas Comparison made with busier eastern section in York YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth
15 :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2016 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2016 Weekday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour YRT Day Total: 149, Brampton Day Total: 201
16 :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 YRT Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2005 YRT Viva Purple & Pink and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Leslie, 2016 YRT 2005 vs 2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour Pre- and Post-Viva BRT; 2005 Day Total: 55, 2016 Day Total: 149
17 :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2005 Brampton Züm Queen and Rt 1 EB at Highway 7 & Kennedy, 2016 Brampton 2005 vs 2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour Pre- and Post- Züm BRT; 2005 Day Total: 106, 2016 Day Total: 201
18 Two typical secondary routes serving single-family residential areas YRT Route 7 Martin Grove Brampton Route 50 Gore Road Source: Google Earth Source: Google Earth
19 :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway Weekday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour YRT Day Total: 27, Brampton Day Total: 55
20 :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway YRT 2005 vs 2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour 2005 Day Total: 31, 2016 Day Total: 27
21 :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2005 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 Brampton 2005 vs 2016 Service Comparison Weekday trips per hour 2005 Day Total: 8, 2016 Day Total: 55
22 :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway Saturday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour Brampton Day Total: 33, YRT Day Total: 18
23 :00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 Brampton Rt 50 Northbound from The Gore and Queen (Highway 7) 2016 YRT Rt 7 Northbound from Martin Grove & Highway Sunday Service Comparison, 2016 Trips per hour Brampton Day Total: 29, YRT Day Total: 0
24 Effect of Service Increase Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood, 2011 to 2015 Change in Trips per Day Change in Ridership 177% 54% 0% 18% Saturday Sunday Ridership Source: Brampton Transit
25 Timing the Effect Riders Brampton Route 23 Sandalwood Sundays, 2011 to Ridership Trips per Day Trips Ridership Source: Brampton Transit
26 Effect of Service Reductions Route Ridership Change Route 3 Thornhill January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 44 to 36 Weekday Trips) Overall Ridership Change in Municipality -0.5% -14.1% Source: York Region Memorandum to the Committee of the Whole Re: York Region Transit (YRT/Viva) Ridership Statistics 2015 Third Quarter
27 Effect of Service Reductions Route 7 Martin Grove January to July 2014 vs 2015 (Decrease from 29 to 27 Weekday Trips, Elimination of Saturday Clockface Schedule) Route Ridership Change Overall Ridership Change in Municipality 1.3% -8.9% Source: York Region Memorandum to the Committee of the Whole Re: York Region Transit (YRT/Viva) Ridership Statistics 2015 Third Quarter
28 The Elephant Next Door Can statistical analysis permit us to draw conclusions on the effect of service based on a comparison with the very different TTC? Data is from the Statistics Canada 2011 National Household Survey
29 Mode Share by Census Tract
30 Across the Boundary Source: Google Earth
31 Census Tracts 239 census tracts selected in a band on either side of Toronto-York municipal boundary Areas of roughly equal size Both predominantly suburban, postwar Include large areas of singlefamily homes as well as employment areas and some towers Both have high percentage new Canadians Both areas predominantly middle class, though York side somewhat more affluent
32 Variables ModeShare The percentage of residents of a given tract who use public transit for their primary work trips. It is used to measure the success of transit at attracting riders. TTC A binary variable based on whether the tract is served by the Toronto Transit Commission. It is a proxy for level of transit service, as the TTC service area offers considerably more service than the non-ttc area MedianHouseholdIncome (control variable) The median household income in Canadian dollars of residents of a census tract Density (control variable) The density of residents per square kilometre in a census tract
33 Regression Results
34 Regression Results (cont d) The results of the regression analysis indicate that all of the analyzed variables added statistically significantly to the prediction. The equation had an r 2 of Controlling for both density and income, there is a statistically significant, positive relationship between being located in the TTC service area and the transit mode share.
35 Validity Threats Doesn t capture off-peak travel Doesn t capture people who walk to TTC Most data problems would understate effect of service on ridership Also may show impact of punitive cross-boundary fares
36 Conclusion Increased service improves ridership performance Network effect means that comprehensive network of high-service routes, rather than focus on select corridors, produces largest ridership gains Well-designed service improvements can be undertaken while maintaining stable fare recovery
37 Jonathan English THANK YOU
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