2012 Year End Report

Transcription

1 212 Year End Report Strategic tourism marketing and policy decisions depend on accurate, consistent tracking of business indicators such as lodging statistics, attraction and welcome center visitation, transportation statistics and more. The intent of the North Carolina Travel Tracker is to provide up-to-date and relevant tourism indicators for both the state and individual regions within the state. With data from the Travel Tracker, program areas and industry partners can strategically plan, implement and evaluate processes and programs. The following report analyzes a variety of tourism indicators by 1) State, 2) the three geographic marketing regions (coastal, piedmont and mountain), and for some indicators 3) the seven economic development regions. As well as providing a review of the current state of business, the report provides a year-to-date analysis and comparisons to previous years where applicable. With regards to the lodging data found in this report; while virtually every chain in the United States provides Smith Travel Research (STR) with data on almost all of their properties, there are still some hotels that don't submit data. However, every year STR examines listings and directories for information on hotels that don't provide data. STR calls each hotel in the database every year to obtain "published" rates for multiple categories. Based on this information all hotels are grouped - those that report data and those that don't - into groupings based off of price level and geographic proximity. They then estimate the non-respondents based on nearby hotels with similar price levels. Following is a guide to charts and graphs for this report: Section Statewide Tourism Indicator Analysis Chart 1 Hotel/Motel Occupancy in North Carolina Chart 2 Hotel/Motel Average Daily Room Rate in North Carolina Chart 3 Hotel/Motel Revenue per Available Room in North Carolina Chart 4 Hotel/Motel Room Demand in North Carolina Chart 5 North Carolina Lodging Statistics Monthly Chart 6 Statewide Visitation to Attractions Chart 7 Statewide Visitation to Attractions Monthly History Chart 8 State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance Chart 9 Statewide National and State Park Visitation Chart 1 Statewide Visitation to State Parks Monthly History Chart 11 Statewide Visitation to National Parks Monthly History Chart 12 Statewide Visitation to Historic Sites Chart 13 Statewide Visitation to Historic Sites Monthly History Chart 14 Statewide Airport Arrivals and Departures Chart 15 Lower Atlantic Average Monthly Retail Gas Prices for Unleaded Chart 16 North Carolina Average Temperature and Precipitation Section Geographic Marketing Region Tourism Indicator Analysis Chart 17 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Geographic Region 212 Chart 18 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Geographic Region 212 Chart 19 Visitation to Attractions, Parks and Historic Sites by Geographic Region 212 Chart 2 State Welcome Center & Local Visitor Center Attendance by Geographic Region 212 Chart 21 Airport Arrivals and Departures by Geographic Region 212 Section Economic Development Region Tourism Indicator Analysis Chart 22 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Economic Development Region Chart 23 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Economic Development Region Section 4 National Travel Price Index Chart 24 - National Monthly Travel Price Index

2 Occupancy Section 1: 212 Statewide Tourism Indicator Analysis Chart 1 Hotel/Motel Occupancy in North Carolina Hotel/Motel Occupancy in North Carolina % +.3% -7.1% -9.7% +6.7% +3.9% +2.5% Source: Smith Travel Research -1.5% 6 year Chart 1 provides a comparison over a six year period to show the trend of occupancy. Occupancy in 212 increased over two percent from 211, though still not yet back to 27 levels. Occupancy at the national level also increased 2.5 percent in 212.

3 Average Daily Rate Chart 2 Hotel/Motel Average Daily Room Rate in North Carolina Hotel/Motel Average Daily Room Rate in North Carolina $9. $8. $7. $6. $5. $4. $3. $2. $ % +7.7% +4.% -5.5% -.7% +2.6% +4.5% $ Source: Smith Travel Research +21.2% 6 year Chart 2 provides a comparison over a six year period to show the trend of average daily room rate (ADR) in the state. ADR in 212 was at a record high, increasing 4.5 percent from 211 and nearly one percent from the previous high set in 28. Rates are expected to continue growth, though slower, into 213 and 214. ADR at the national level was up 4.2 percent in 212 from 211.

4 Revenue per Available Room Chart 3 Hotel/Motel Revenue per Available Room in North Carolina $5. $45. Hotel/Motel Revenue per Available Room in North Carolina $4. $35. $3. $25. $2. $15. $1. $ % +8.1% -3.4% -14.6% +5.9% +6.6% +7.1% $ % 6 year Source: Smith Travel Research In Chart 3 an analysis of Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) is provided. RevPAR is an industry term that describes the revenue that a hotel earns on the basis of just the rooms available for a given night. In other words, rooms not available either due to renovation or other reasons are not included in this equation. Mathematically, RevPAR can be determined dividing total room revenue by rooms available (occupancy times average room rate will closely approximate RevPAR). As with previous charts, Chart 3 shows a comparison over a seven year period to show the trend of RevPAR in the state. In 212 RevPar was up over seven percent from 211, though still slightly below 27 RevPAR. RevPAR at the national level was up 6.8 percent in 212 from 211.

5 Room Demand Chart 4 Hotel/Motel Room Demand in North Carolina Hotel/Motel Room Demand in North Carolina ,, 3,, 25,, 2,, 15,, 1,, +2.7% +1.3% -5.9% -7.3% +9.% +4.7% +3.2% 5,, % 6 year Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 4 depicts hotel/motel demand from 26 through 212. Demand is the number of rooms sold excluding complimentary rooms. Room Demand for 212 was up over three percent from 211 and hit a record level. More than 3 million room nights were sold in 212. Room Demand at the national level saw an increase of 3. percent change in 212 from the previous year.

6 Chart 5 North Carolina Lodging Statistics Monthly North Carolina Lodging Statistics Monthly Hotel/Motel Occupancy Average Daily Room Rate Revenue per Available Room Demand Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 5 provides a monthly percent change for the four major lodging indicators. The chart allows for a 27 month trend-line analysis that clearly depicts that the major indicators are in recovery. Most indicators dropped to negative percent change in January 29, and began to rebound a year later. All indicators in 212 remained in positive growth.

7 Vistitors Chart 6 Statewide Visitation to Attractions Statewide Visitation to Attractions ,178,293 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 6,36,831 6,772,943 6,61,58 6,436,254 6,493,116 6,448,26 3,, 2,, +12.2% -2.5% -2.5% +.9% -.7% +26.8% 1,, % +35.5% 6 year * reflects changes for those attractions reporting from year to year. Chart 6 provides a status of the attractions industry in North Carolina for the last seven years. The numbers represent only a sample of North Carolina attractions that provide their attendance data, and are not intended to be considered a complete list of attractions. However, the wide variation of type and location of the participating attractions allow for a valid aggregate trend analysis on a monthly basis, particularly when tracking percent change. Missing values for attractions that regularly report are not included in percent change calculations. There was a healthy increase in attraction visitation from 211 to 212, though several attractions that underwent re-openings had an impact on this growth. The new wing of the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences opened in the spring, and has steadily increased visitation monthly. As well, renovations at Chimney Rock State Park were completed in late spring, increasing attendance there.

8 Visitors Chart 7 Statewide Visitation to Attractions Monthly History ,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Statewide Visitation to Attractions Monthly History Chart 7 shows a monthly trend of attraction visitation for each of the last five years. This chart allows for a view of the ebb and flow of monthly attraction attendance, while also providing a look at how attendance compares to the same month of the previous years. Not surprisingly, the summer months see higher visitation numbers at statewide attractions. However, it is helpful to view how visitation is allocated by month for strategic planning purposes. Again, the numbers represent only a sample of North Carolina attractions that provide their attendance data, and are not intended to be considered a complete list of attractions. However, the wide variation of type and location of the participating attractions allow for a valid aggregate trend analysis on a monthly basis. Mild weather in the spring of 212 helped attendance at statewide attractions.

9 +2.9% -4.5% -7.2% -.9% +3.5% -2.3%.% -13.4% +2.7% +1.6% 2,717,36 2,595,536 2,48,42 2,386,642 2,332,99 2,19,968 2,234,555 Clients 8,616,62 8,63,964 7,447,283 6,868,62 7,19,777 7,111,991 7,33,369 Chart 8 State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance ,, 8,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, year -17.8% Welcome Centers Visitor Centers Welcome Center visitation is calculated using an electronic count of vehicles entering the center during operating hours with a multiplier of 2.7 persons per vehicle. Visitor center method of counting varies by center, but percent change is a consistent measurement. Chart 8 provides annual visitation statistics for State Welcome Centers, as well as Local Visitor Centers throughout North Carolina. It should be noted that while there is a percent change indicated for welcome centers for and 28-29, 28 was the first year a percent change could accurately be provided. The NCDOT spent several years changing the counting mechanism at the state welcome centers making comparisons between years inaccurate from the time the DOT began installation until December 28. Therefore, previous years percent changes are not included in this particular chart.

10 +2.5% +5.6% +7.9% -2.% -8.2% -6.9% +14.1% +1.2% -1.2% -6.1% +1.5% +.6% +4.1% +2.4% Visitors 12,411,721 13,394,32 12,293,223 14,24,123 13,853,514 14,61,58 14,636,122 19,725,45 19,326,845 17,984,28 18,198,675 17,93,456 17,188,249 17,598,67 Chart 9 Statewide National and State Park Visitation Statewide National and State Park Visitation ,, 18,, 16,, 14,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, State Parks National Parks +17.9% -1.8% 6 year Chart 9 depicts visitation to state and national parks in North Carolina for the last seven years. Both state and national parks experienced increases in 212 from 211, due in part to the mild winter weather. State park attendance has seen an almost eighteen percent increase in visitation since 26.

11 Visitors Visitors Chart 1 Statewide Visitation to State Parks Monthly History ,5, 2,25, 2,, 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, 75, 5, 25, Statewide Visitation to State Parks Monthly History Similar to Chart 7, Charts 1 and 11 provide a monthly trend of state and national park visitation for each of the last six years. These charts help monitor the flow of monthly attraction attendance, while also providing a look at how attendance compares to the same month of the previous years. It is important to note that there are many extraneous variables that can affect visitation at attractions, and particularly at outdoor attractions. Weather, temperature and holidays are variables that should be noted when viewing unusual highs or lows in attendance. Chart 11 Statewide Visitation to National Parks Monthly History ,75, 2,5, 2,25, 2,, 1,75, 1,5, 1,25, 1,, 75, 5, 25, Statewide Visitation to National Parks Monthly History

12 Visitors Vistitors Chart 12 Statewide Historic Site Visitation 1,3, 1,2, 1,1, 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Statewide Visitation to Historic Sites ,293,248 1,167,24 1,168, % % * reflects changes for those attractions reporting from year to year. +.2% 3 year Chart 12 depicts visitation to State Historic Sites in North Carolina for the last three years. As this report has just begun tracking historic site visitation, more data is needed to determine the trend. However, visitation from 211 was up slightly for statewide historic sites, and fared better during the second half of 212. Chart 13 Statewide Visitation to State Historic Sites History , 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Statewide Visitation to Historic Sites Monthly History

13 +3.2% +2.9% +1.2% +1.2% +2.9% +2.9% -2.8% -2.8% +8.7% +8.7% +1.8% +1.7% +4.% +4.1% Passengers 21,572,547 21,589,78 23,779,478 23,786,134 24,471,255 24,468,16 23,775,159 23,784,76 25,842,822 25,856,61 26,37,666 26,293,79 27,357,75 27,364,788 Chart 14 - Statewide Airport Arrivals and Departures Statewide Airport Arrivals and Departures ,, 25,, 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, - Departures % Arrivals +26.7% 6 year Airports: Piedmont Triad International, Raleigh-Durham International, Charlotte Douglas International, Jacksonville, New Bern, Asheville Regional, Fayetteville, and Wilmington International. Chart 14 shows annual airport arrivals and departures for each of the previous seven years. The 212 arrivals and departures data showed positive growth from 211. In the last six years, air arrivals have increased over twenty-six percent statewide.

14 January February March April May June July August September October November December Dollars Chart 15 Lower Atlantic Average Monthly Retail Gas Prices for Unleaded $4. Lower Atlantic Average Monthly Retail Gas Prices for Unleaded $3.5 $3. $2.5 $2. $ % 6 year Source: Energy Information Administration: Chart 15 provides the monthly average price per gallon of unleaded gasoline for 26 through 212. The data provided above, when compared with other indicators such as attraction attendance and visitor spending data, can be very helpful in the analysis of general travel trends. As an annual average, fuel prices in 212 were 2.4% percent higher than in 211, the highest on record.

15 Degrees and Inches Chart 16 North Carolina Average Temperature and Total Precipitation North Carolina Average Temperature and Total Precipitation Data Temperature Precipitation State Climate Offic of North Carolina: NC CRONOS Database: Chart 16 provides annual indicators of average air temperature and total precipitation. Though annual data of this sort does not change very much from year to year, the data, when analyzed together with gas price data and other tourism indicators, can be valuable in determining possible reasons for significant increases and/or decreases in indicators. For instance, greater than normal precipitation during a particular month can often help explain decreases in attendance at outdoor attractions. 212 was slightly warmer than 211 with a higher total precipitation.

16 Occupancy Rate and Dollars Section 2 Geographic Marketing Region (Coastal/Piedmont/Mountain) Tourism Indicator Analysis Chart 17 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Geographic Region Hotel/Motel Statistics by Geographic Region % +1.6% +2.3% +2.6% +5.4% +8.3% +4.9% +4.% Coast Piedmont Mountains +9.1% Hotel/Motel Occupancy Average Daily Room Rate Revenue per available Room Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 17 provides a one year comparison in lodging statistics for the three geographic marketing regions of North Carolina. All leading indicators showed positive growth in the three regions of the state in 212 (from 211), particularly the Mountain Region.

17 Room Demand Chart 18 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Geographic Region Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Geographic Region 212 2,, 18,, 16,, 14,, 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, +1.7% +3.4% +5.5% Coast Piedmont Mountains Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 18 provides hotel/motel demand by geographic region for 212. Demand differs from occupancy in that it is the total number of rooms sold, not accounting for differences in room supply. All three geographic regions showed positive demand growth from 211 to 212.

18 2,117, ,213 43,718 4,788 54,936 2,722,187 5,79,414 3,259,533 1,741,982 Visitors 3,478,151 7,814,726 13,689,738 Chart 19 Visitation to Attractions, Parks and Historic Sites by Geographic Region Visitation to Attractions, Parks and Historic Sites by Geographic Region ,, 12,, 9,, 6,, 3,, -3.% +37.6% +14.6% +.7% +7.3% +32.9% +5.7% +2.2% -13.1% +23.% -1.6% -1.8% Coast Piedmont Mountains Attraction State Parks National Parks Historic Sites * reflects changes for those attractions, parks and centers reporting from year to year. Chart 19 provides a look at the attractions industry in North Carolina in 212 by geographic region. As with the statewide numbers, the following data represents only a sample of North Carolina attractions that provide their attendance data, and are not intended to be considered a complete list of attractions. However, the wide variation of type and location of the participating attractions allow for a valid aggregate trend analysis on a monthly basis. It should be noted that national park attendance in the Piedmont Region only consists of one park, therefore should be analyzed with caution.

19 Clients Chart 2 State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance by Geographic Region State Welcome Center and Local Visitor Center Attendance by Geographic Region ,, 2,74,128 2,65,417 2,5, 2,, 1,787,62 1,912,824 1,5, 1,, 5, +1.1% +13.4% +5.3% 336,595 11, % +1.5% -4.1% Coast Piedmont Mountains Welcome Centers Visitor Centers Welcome Center visitation is calculated using an electronic count of vehicles entering the center during operating hours with a multiplier of 2.7 persons per vehicle. Visitor center method of counting varies by center, but percent change is a consistent measurement. Chart 2 shows welcome center and visitor center attendance by geographic region. All three regions showed increases in welcome center visitation from 211 to 212.

20 Passengers Chart 21 Airport Arrivals and Departures by Geographic Region Airport Arrivals and Departures by Geographic Region 212 3,, 25,, 26,11,257 26,12,131 2,, 15,, 1,, 5,, 938, , % -1.9% +4.4% +4.5% 317,674 Coast Piedmont Mountains 316, % -12.% Departures Arrivals Airports: Piedmont Triad International, Raleigh-Durham International, Charlotte Douglas International, Jacksonville, New Bern, Asheville Regional, Fayetteville, and Wilmington International. Chart 21 provides a breakdown of air travel statistics by geographic region. While the majority of air traffic is through the Piedmont Region, it is helpful to maintain a trend of other regional airport usage. The Piedmont Region showed positive growth in air traffic during 212, while the other regions were down over the same time period. It should be noted that several discontinued flights out of Asheville in 212 affected the percent change for the Mountain Region.

21 -2.6% +3.7% +1.% -.1% -.7% -.8% +4.6% +1.4% +6.% -.3% +3.5% +3.2% +5.2% +3.4% +8.9% +3.1% +9.% +12.4% +4.9% +4.% +9.1% Occupancy Rate and Dollars Section 3: Economic Development Region Tourism Indicator Analysis The seven economic regions include: 1 Northeast (Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Currituck, Gates, Halifax, Hertford, Northampton, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Beaufort, Dare, Hyde, Martin, Tyrrell, Washington). 2 Eastern (Carteret, Craven, Jones, Onslow, Pamlico, Duplin, Edgecombe, Green, Lenoir, Nash, Pitt, Wayne, Wilson). 3 Southeast (Brunswick, Columbus, New Hanover, Pender, Bladen, Cumberland, Hoke, Richmond, Robeson, Sampson, Scotland). 4 Triangle (Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Vance, Wake, Warren, Chatham, Durham, Granville, Lee, Moore, Orange, Person). 5 Triad (Alamance, Caswell, Guilford, Montgomery, Randolph, Rockingham, Davidson, Davie, Forsyth, Stokes, Surry, Yadkin). 6 Carolinas (Alexander, Catawba, Cleveland, Iredell, Rowan, Anson, Cabarrus, Gaston, Lincoln, Mecklenburg, Stanly, Union). 7 Western (Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell, Mitchell, Polk, Rutherford, Swain, Transylvania, Watauga, Wilkes, Yancey). Chart 22 Hotel/Motel Statistics by Economic Development Region Hotel/Motel Statistics by Economic Development Region Region 1 Northeast Region 2 Eastern Region 3 Southeast Region 4 Triangle Region 5 Triad Region 6 Carolinas Region 7 Western Hotel/Motel Occupancy Average Daily Room Rate Revenue per available Room Source: Smith Travel Research Chart 22 provides lodging indicators for 212 by economic development region. Also shown are percent changes from 211. This graph allows individual regions within the state to track indicators specific to their general destinations, while still being able to compare their data to the state data shown in Section 1.

22 Room Demand Chart 23 Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Economic Development Region Hotel/Motel Room Demand by Economic Development Region ,, 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, -2.4% -1.2% +5.6% +.8% +5.3% +4.6% +5.5% Region 1 Northeast Region 2 Eastern Region 3 Southeast Source: Smith Travel Research Region 4 Triangle Region 5 Triad Region 6 Carolinas Region 7 Western Chart 23 depicts hotel/motel demand for 212 by economic development region. Demand is the number of rooms sold excluding complimentary rooms. Five of the six regions show increased demand from 211 to 212. The Northeast and Eastern regions had small decreases.

23 Travel Price Index Section 4: National Travel Price Index The Travel Price Index (TPI) measures the seasonally unadjusted inflation rate of the cost of travel away from home in the United States. The TPI is based on U.S. Department of Labor price data collected for the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI). The TPO is released monthly and is directly comparable to the CPI. Variables included in calculating the TPI: Recreation Services Food and Beverage Alcohol Away From Home Food Away from Home Other Lodging (Include Hotel/Motel) Transportation Airline Fares Intra-city Public Transportation Motor Fuel Other Intercity Transportation Chart 24 National Travel Price Index National Travel Price Index December 26 - December Index 211 Index 21 Index 29 Index 28 Index 27 Index Source: U.S Travel Association and U.S. Department of Labor. Chart 24 provides a five year trend of the National Travel Price Index (TPI). Steady growth was experienced through mid-28; however in November 28, it is clear that as the TPI fell below 27 levels, the tourism industry began feeling the full effect of the recession. Into 29, the TPI remained slightly below the 27 level. 21 and 211 showed steady growth. 212 continued the growth of the previous two years, as ADR picked up the pace after its slow start to recovery. *Hotel/Motel statistics are from Smith Travel Research, Inc.; all other figures are from the Division of Tourism and NC State University. North Carolina Division of Tourism, Film and Sports Development 31 N. Wilmington Street 4324 Mail Service Center Raleigh, North Carolina Tel: (919) Fax: (919)