INSERÇÃO DE NOVAS FONTES RENOVÁVEIS NO PLANEJAMENTO ENERGÉTICO NACIONAL

Transcription

1 INSERÇÃO DE NOVAS FONTES RENOVÁVEIS NO PLANEJAMENTO ENERGÉTICO NACIONAL The Role of Flexible Power Plants 1 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

2 WÄRTSILÄ CORPORATION POWER PLANTS Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

3 3 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 Presentation The Role of Flexible name / Power Author Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

4 Order Intake 2013 by Region Europe: Total 320 MW Americas: Total 418 MW 268 Q4 Total: 2.4 GW Q1 Americas: 418 MW Africa & ME: 581 MW Europe: 320 MW Asia: 1083 MW Q3 53 plants 30% EPC Q Asia: Total 1,083 MW 666 Africa & Middle East: Total 581 MW Utilities IPP:s Industrial Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

5 Installed base* Wärtsilä Powering the World Europe: Output: 12.5 GW Asia: Output: 19.8 GW Americas: Output: 11.7 GW Total: 56,2 GW Countries: 169 Africa & Middle East: Output: 12.5 GW Utilities IPPs Industry Others * December Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

6 SPG references STEC Pearsall, USA Output: 202 MW Fuel: Natural Gas Prime movers: 24 x Wärtsilä 20V34 SG Operating mode: Wind following Start of commercial operation: Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

7 230 MW, USA Plains End I and II, Colorado, USA Fuel: Natural Gas Prime movers: 20 x Wärtsilä 18V34 SG, 14 x Wärtsilä 20V34SG Output: 231 MW Operating mode: Peaking / Wind following Year of completion: 2001 & Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

8 163 MW, USA Humboldt Bay Generating Station, California, USA Fuel: Dual (Natural Gas & LFO) Prime movers: 10 x Wärtsilä 18V50DF Output: 163 MW Operating mode: Flexible Baseload Year of completion: 2010 Scope: EPC 8 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

9 260 MW, Estonia Kiisa Power Plant, Estonia Fuel: Dual (Natural Gas & LFO) Prime movers: 27 x Wärtsilä 20V34DF Output: 250 MW Operating mode: Grid stability (200 operating hours per year) Year of completion: Planned 2013 Scope: EPC 9 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

10 Market trends and challenges World electricity consumption The growing importance of renewables Green house gas emission targets and challenges Impact on the power system 10 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

11 World electricity consumption Reasons for growth of electricity demand Electrification (heat pumps, appliances...) GDP growth Increasing standard of living World Electricity Consumption 8,00% GWh Growth will continue Recession may stagnate demand growth GDP growth divided world! Electricity Consumption & GDP Growth ,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% ,00% Electricity final consumption Electricity yearly cons. growth % GDP yearly growth rate % Electricity consumption of industry Electricity consumption of residential, services, agriculture Source: Enerdata 11 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

12 It is not different in Brazil Annual change in GDP vs. increase in electrical energy consumption (% p.a.) % TWh Rationing 2008 Financial Crisis National energy demand (TWh / year) GDP Electrical Energy Consumption The historically strong correlation between real GDP growth and the annual increase in eletrical energy consumption suggests that the strong demand for power plants is to continue. The National Energy Agency EPE anticipates the annual energy demand to more than double during , from less than 500 TWh to more than 1000 TWh per year 12 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil Source: EPE Plano Nacional de Energia 2030 and IBGE; MME

13 The growing importance of renewables Globally: Demand for renewable energy continue to rise 2012: 1470 GW capacity 2011: 19% of final energy consumption Renewables (RES) accounted for >50% of total net additions to electric generating capacity from all sources in 2012 Solar photovoltaics (PV) 2007: <10 GW 2012: >100 GW Wind power 2007: <100 GW 2012: 275 GW Source: RES21: Renewables 2013 Global Status Report 13 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

14 Wind power cumulative capacity GW : 275 GW Sources: EWEA, GWEC, U.S. DOE EU-27 USA China Rest of the world 14 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

15 Solar power cumulative capacity GW : 102 GW Sources: EPIA, REN21 EU-27 USA China Rest of the world 15 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

16 World capacity mix 2010 & scenario Hydro 20% Bioenergy 1% Wind 4% Solar PV 1% Oher (Geothermal, CSP, Marine) 0% Coal 32% 2030 Bioenergy 2% Wind 11% Solar PV 6% Other (Geothermal, CSP, Marine) 1% Coal 26% GW GW Oil 3% Nuclear 8% Hydro 19% Oil 8% Gas 26% Nuclear 6% Gas 26% Source: World Energy Outlook 2012 IEA, New Policies Scenario 16 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

17 Again, not different here... Fonte: PDE 2022 ( Larga expansão de capacidade instalada de fontes sazonais e/ou intermitentes no sistema elétrico brasileiro, com destaque para a fonte eólica (+15GW). Novas usinas hidrelétricas (+36GW) usarão o conceito de fio d água, não havendo nova capacidade de armazenamento, sendo a maioria a ser instalada na Amazônia. O Brasil perderá, ao longo dos próximos anos, a capacidade de armazenamento das hidrelétricas que possui. Haverá redução na relação entre energia armazenável e carga. Incerteza quanto as hidrologias futuras no NE brasileiro. 17 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

18 GHG emission targets Typical target for year 2020, e.g. EU and USA: 20% energy share from renewable sources 20% less greenhouse gas emissions 20% increase in energy efficiency 20 % renewable energy in 2020 means 5-7 times more wind power capacity in the EU! Wind power capacity will greatly exceed average load System operation and operation profiles of thermal plants need to change Variable wind power and larger day/night load variations increase demand for dynamic flexibility of generation assets It is generally agreed that security of supply is at risk, but there has not been any perceived solution Present electricity markets are generally based on selling energy (kwh s) and do not reward dynamic flexible capacity adequately to encourage investments New parallel capacity markets must be developed to enable private investments in fast, flexible system balancing capacity (kw s) 18 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

19 Market trends and challenges World electricity consumption The growing importance of renewables Green house gas emission targets and challenges Impact on the power system 19 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

20 System impact of wind power Source: Vestas Reaching 20% renewable power requires approximately 285 GW of installed wind capacity in the EU A wind speed change from 9 -> 7 m/s could change wind power output with ~100 GW. Such wind speed changes are barely notable and happen all the time. 20 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

21 Experiências EUA, Texas Texas has experienced 1h wind ramps of 3,039 MW increase and 2,849 decrease of 8,900 MW installed.

22 Experiências EUA, Texas ~3,000 MW gone in <1h

23 Wind chasing in Colorado, US Load Grid operator data from: Coal power plants Wind generation Gas generation Plains End 1 & 2 power plants Flexible generation EPG 23 Summit, Wärtsilä Prague, 15 May Dec The Kenneth Role of Flexible Engblom Power, Wartsila Plants/ Corporation Wärtsilä Brasil In systems with high wind penetration, the system faces Lower average load & more part load operation of installed plants Faster ramp up s and down s needs More starts and stops

24 GW This was the plan! Production by technology OC GT CC GT COAL 5 0 NUCLEAR Hour 24 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

25 GW Technical challenge 45 Quick Starts & loading Quick Stops & de-loading FLEX GEN 1 SOLAR FLEX GEN 2 WIND COAL 5 NUCLEAR Hour 25 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil Part load & spinning reserves

26 Flexibility is key! 26 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

27 The Smart Power Generation 27 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

28 Main topics for discussions There is no magic solution; Impacts (in Brazil) of intermitent and stochastic generation needs further study and developments; More fluctuations in load and generation will require more system flexibility; State-of-art forecast methodologies are a must; Planning of the operation has to be adapt; Planning of the expansion has to adress the value of flexibility; Auction process requires constant update; 28 Wärtsilä 15 May 2014 The Role of Flexible Power Plants/ Wärtsilä Brasil

29 EPG 29 Summit, Wärtsilä Prague, 15 May Dec The Kenneth Role of Flexible Engblom Power, Wartsila Plants/ Corporation Wärtsilä Brasil