Michael Childress Department of Biological Sciences Clemson University
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1 Michael Childress Department of Biological Sciences Clemson University
2
3 Why are blue crabs declining? How does drought impact blue crabs? How do you model blue crabs? How will climate change affect crabs? What is the forecast for blue crabs?
4 Landings (millions lbs) Year SCDNR Data
5 Landings (millions lbs) Licenses (commercial) Commercial Licenses Year r 2 =.27, p =.59 SCDNR Data
6 Landings (millions lbs) Log flow (cu ft/ s) Edisto River Discharge year lag Year r 2 =.113, p =.483 Childress 21 SCWRC
7 Landings (millions lbs) Log flow (cu ft/ s) Edisto River Discharge 1 year lag Year r 2 =.161, p =.168 Childress & Parmenter 212 SCWRC
8 Landings (millions lbs) Log flow (cu ft/ s) Edisto River Discharge 2 year lag Year r 2 =.29, p =.56 Childress 214 SCWRC
9
10 Why are blue crabs declining? How does drought impact blue crabs? How do you model blue crabs? How will climate change affect crabs? What is the forecast for blue crabs?
11
12 Freshwater Saltwater Mating March-May Egg incubation April-June Larval release June-Aug Juveniles Sept-March (19 mo) Megalopae Aug-Oct Zoeae July-Sept SCDNR Photos
13 Salinity Normal Conditions Drought Conditions
14 Combahee Ashepoo Edisto ACE Basin NERR
15 Salinity ACE Basin NERR
16 Fishery Boundary ACE Basin NERR
17 Disease Prevalence (%) Juvenile Eaten (%) Median Salinity (psu) Crab Number 4 35 Salinity 45 4 Crab Abundance Ashepoo Combahee Edisto Ashepoo Combahee Edisto Station Station 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% Disease 8% 7% 6% 5% Predation 1% Ashepoo 4% Ashepoo 8% 6% 4% 2% Combahee Edisto 3% 2% 1% Combahee Edisto % Station % Station Crabs: r 2 =.8, p =.5298 Crabs: r 2 =.4, p =.5389 Salinity: r 2 =.277, p =.786 Salinity: r 2 =.743, p =.3 Childress & Parmenter 212 SCWRC
18 Crab Abundance Predation Disease Salinity Inflow Parmenter et al. 213 Estuaries & Coasts
19 Crab Number 25 Crab Forecast Ashepoo Combahee Edisto Observed ARIMA Forecast J S DM J S DM J S DM J S DM J S DM J S DM J S DM Month (quarterly) Childress & Parmenter 212 SCWRC
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21 Why are blue crabs declining? How does drought impact blue crabs? How do you model blue crabs? How will climate change affect crabs? What is the forecast for blue crabs?
22 Childress 21 SCWRC
23 Spatially-Explicit IBM Crab Model Individual-Based Subroutines Season (time) Settlement (season) (location) Dispersal (season) (sex) (stage) Inflow Salinity Temperature Oxygen Time (week) Stage (age) Survival (fishing) (salinity) (temperature) (dis oxygen) (predation) (disease) (cannibalism) Location (space) Growth (temperature) (stage) (age) Reproduction (season) (sex) (stage)
24 IBM Crab Model Spatial Structure Combahee Ashepoo Edisto Juvenile stage = J3 age = 2 disease = no reprod = no heading = 35 Male stage = M13 age = 15 disease = yes reprod = no heading = 355 Female stage = F18 age = 245 disease = no reprod = yes heading = 185
25 Landings (millions lbs) Trapped crab number Landings (millions lbs) 35 7 Model forecasts steep decline during 99-2 drought Model landings predict 32% of observed landing variation Thus, the IBM is even better at predicting crab abundance Model 5 Landings r 2 =.32, p = Trapped crab number (model)
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27 Why are blue crabs declining? How does drought impact blue crabs? How do you model blue crabs? How will climate change affect crabs? What is the forecast for blue crabs?
28 IPCC 214
29 Precipitation Evaporation P-E Seager et al. 29 J Climate Seager et al. 212 J Climate
30 NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center
31 Flow (log cfs) y = -.27x Observed ARIMA Model 2.7 y = -.56x Year USGS 2175 Edisto River near Givhans Ferry, SC
32 Flow (log cfs) Observed Slight Moderate Severe Year Childress 214 SCWRC
33 Projected Crab Landings (millions lbs) Projected Crab Landings (millions lbs) Flow (log cfs) Flow (log cfs) Observed 3.7 Observed 3.5 Slight 3.5 Moderate Slope =.2 Amplitude = Slight Freshwater Decrease Year Slope =.3 Amplitude = Moderate Freshwater Decrease Year Childress 214 SCWRC
34 Projected Crab Landings (millions lbs) Projected Crab Landings (millions lbs) Flow (log cfs) Flow (log cfs) Observed 3.7 Observed 3.5 Severe 3.5 Extreme Slope =.4 Amplitude = Severe Freshwater Decrease Year Slope =.5 Amplitude = Extreme Freshwater Decrease Year Childress 214 SCWRC
35 Year Source DF F P r2 215 Full Amplitude Slope A X S Full Amplitude Slope A X S Childress 214 SCWRC
36 Frequency (%) % % 34% Observed Blue Crab Landings (million lbs) Childress 214 SCWRC
37 Probability (%) Probability (%) Probability (%) Probability (%) Slight Freshwater Decrease 38% 36% 26% Moderate Freshwater Decrease 89% 1% 1% Projected Blue Crab Landings (millions lbs) Projected Blue Crabs Landings (million lbs) Severe Freshwater Decrease 28% 1% 71% Extreme Freshwater Decrease 56% 43% 5 1 1% Projected Blue Crab Landings (millions lbs) Projected Blue Crab Landings (millions lbs) Childress 214 SCWRC
38
39 Why are blue crabs declining? How does drought impact blue crabs? How do you model blue crabs? How will climate change affect crabs? What is the forecast for blue crabs?
40 Landings (millions lbs) Log flow (cu ft/ s) Edisto River Discharge 2 year lag Year r 2 =.29, p =.56 Childress 214 SCWRC
41 Landings (millions lbs) Log flow (cu ft/ s) Edisto River Discharge 5 year MA Year r 2 =.469, p <.1 Childress 214 SCWRC
42 Crab landings (millions lbs) Observed F2 Model MA5 Model 215 = = 4.59 Year Childress 214 SCWRC
43 Crab landings (millions lbs) Observed Slight Moderate Severe Year Childress 214 SCWRC
44 Model FA2 Model (+14%)???? MA5 Model (-1%)???? SCBCRABs slight (+7%) 5.47 (+8%) 6.44 (+26) SCBCRABS moderate (-19%) (-16%) (-16%) SCBCRABS severe (-35%) (-47%).887 (-83%) 213 SC blue crab landings = 5.98 Childress 214 SCWRC
45
46 Sanchez-Rubio et al. 211 Fisheries Bulletin Why are blue crabs declining? Decreasing freshwater input to estuary Wilber 1994 Fisheries Bulletin
47 How does drought impact blue crabs? Droughts increase disease and high salinity stress Parmenter et al. 213 Estuaries Lee & Frischer 24 American Scientist
48 How do you model blue crabs? IBMs allow for integration of multiple effects Childress 21 SCWRC
49 How will climate change affect crabs? Droughts will become more severe Colton Seager et al. et 213 al. 212 Fisheries Journal & Oceanography of Climate
50 Landings (millions lbs) What is the forecast for blue crabs? Landings will continue to decrease if rate of freshwater decline continues at the present level SC Blue Crab Landings Year SCDNR Data
51 Funding NOAA-UCAR Subaward Z SC Sea Grant R/CF-1 & R/CF-15 NERR Graduate Research Fellowship Clemson Research Incentive Fund Collaboration Clemson M Ptacek SC Seagrant J Davis, E Fly ACE Basin NERR A Segars, J Leffler SC DNR D Whittaker, L DeLancey, A Fowler CISA K Dow, D Tufford Field assistants K Parmenter K Smith Conservation of Marine Resources Team
52
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