No 163. bmti market barometer. bmti daily and independent. Wednesday, 17 August 2011 FOR BMTI-SUBSCRIBER.

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1 No 163 Wednesday, 17 August 2011 bmti daily and independent bmti market barometer FOR BMTI-SUBSCRIBER. BMTI's London Correspondent Viewpoint Even with fresh Capes fixtures limited, brokers say there are more bubbling under the surface on spot as sentiment takes another positive hike of 1% today thanks to a general trader consensus that the supply- The demand balance is shifting slightly away from Panamaxes as front hauls firm up by an impressive US$ 1,000 today to upwards of US$ 25,000 daily US$ 1,000 today to upwards of US$ 25,000 daily. A Continental shipbroker reports to BMTI: from the Med Danish charterers booked a 53,000 dwt from Canakkale and a 46,000 dwt, both at US$ 13,000 for 2-3 laden legs in the Atlantic. Grain rates from Black Sea are gradually rising. For 25,000mt wheat Novo/ Egypt Med has climbed to US$ 18/mt. Owners of a 25,000 dwt indicate US$ 8,000 to the Continent with delivery Canakkale. Brokers insist the worst is over for Handysizes in the USG. A 38,000 dwt has been rated at US$ 11,000 for NCSA/USG, which they argue supports their view. On the other hand, a Short Sea /mt Week 21 Baltic Westward [ ] This graph tracks average freight rates for a general short sea cargo of mt shipped from the Baltic States to the ARA region 21 28,000 dwt is in talks from NCSA to the Black Sea at circa US$ 14,000 with APS delivery. Tonnage availabilities are said to be generally sufficient. The upward movement for Handysize tonnage in the East seems to have stabilized. Owners of a 53,000 dwt are allegedly seeing US$ 13,000 for five months with delivery EC India. A 46,000 dwt traded from the same area at around US$ 13,000 for short period whilst a 55,000 dwt was proposed US$ 12,000 for a trip via S.Africa back to India, and at US$ 11,500 for a trip to China. Also the Handysize market in the East seems to have bottomed out. A 33,000 dwt can do US$ 10,500 for 2LL with delivery S'pore. From EC India undisclosed charterers are negotiating a 38,000 dwt for a trip via Australia and redel SE Asia, at around US$ 8,500. Apparently several charterers are showing interest in a modern 28,000 dwt ship for 2-3 laden legs with delivery PMO. From Jubail sulphur charterers are said to be closely working a 40,000mt stem to Richards Bay at US$ 24/mt. Today's Short Sea Freights mt loading discharge rate cargo 3,000 Berdyansk Adriatic $62.0 grain 3,000 Adriatic Iskenderun $27.0 scrap 60' 5,000 North France East Med 26.5 general 5,800 WC Norway Kaliningrad 6.5 aggregates There appears to be much resistance or negotiating when they put a cargo on the market as Baltic-based owners tend to be happy enough to have any business at all. Rates have fallen to their "natural limit" says one broker, which is usually just above parity with operating costs, explaining why rates have been trading flat for been trading flat for days. Europe's leading trend experts for the shipping industry 17 August 2011 Page 1 of 5 Yr29/163

2 Coal, aggregates, steels and fertilizers are all being seen in moderate volumes with expectations of grain cargoes coming on at the end of August, early September (as traditionally happens) giving owners a little more motivation to be more bullish. Flat steel cargoes of 3,000mt from St. Petersburg to ECUK are going for freights of EUR 16-17/mt, more or less where they have been trading for a number of weeks now. Coal is moving steadily from the Baltic States with EUR 15/mt achievable for 3,000mt shipped. Inflation was a peak for the year. With the industrial output grows slower (14% in July down from 15%. Research Department China: Slide or Crash? (7) Inflation seems to be running undefeated in China with last month's rate of 6.5% higher than expected, exceeding June's 6.4% and setting a three-year record. Food prices, a large portion of the inflation, were blamed again by the National Bureau of Statistics with average food inflation up 14.8% in July from last year. Pork jumped 57%. This brings into question the effectiveness of China's dampening measures and efforts to curb investment. Most recently, the central bank ordered national banks to increase their reserve requirement to 21.5% Remarks from a Continental Dry Cargo Operator Lately, I've been exchanging views with other dry cargo ship operators and owners who operate ships of Handy up to Cape. I've noticed an interesting pattern the tendency is to steer clear of paper contracts, FFAs, derivatives and so on. One prominent London operator told me that they intend to totally block out all of these tools and not even do indexbased fixtures anymore in other words stick only and has raised benchmark interest rates five times since October. It remains to be seen whether the central bank will order another rate hike this month if inflation fears grow. The Chinese Producer Price Index (PPI), another inflation indicator, rose by a robust 7.5% in July. With inflation staying at current high rates and expected to exceed 6% once again in Q3, "inflation, instead of an economic slowdown, remains the major risk," said Qu Hongbin this week, HSBC's chief economist for China. Nonetheless, a consensus is building among analysts that July's. with fixed rates. They also told me their main hedging options will consist of physical cargo contracts just the good old days! I can only guess that the various paper options have left many unsatisfied to say the least. Maybe shipping has also become far too complex. On the coaster and smaller sizes shipping is as it always has been: ship to cargo and/or time charter. No other options. Time will tell what's best. Dry Bulk Commodity News A company projects the national harvest in to be Mt, up 8.2% YoY, including a 4.7% rise in total cultivated area to 49.6m hectares. Soya area will grow 7.5% while wheat will slip by about3%. A softer US dollar has helped lower US grain prices and come within range of undercutting the competitive advantage of Russia, which maintains some of the lowest prices worldwide. Louis Dreyfus is now offering US$ 262/mt, just below Russia's price. Thailand, says it expects to produce at least 9.2 Mt of sugar in the season. Pressured by recession worries, ICE October raw sugar futures fell 15% on Tuesday from last month's high of USc 31.68/lb. Tuesday from last month's high of USc 31.68/lb. forthcoming holidays Date Country 17 Aug 2011 Queensland (Australia); Brunei; Indonesia; Perak, Perlis, Pulau Pinang, Selangor, Terengganu (Malaysia) 18 Aug 2011 no holidays 19 Aug 2011 Jamnagar / Gujarat (India); Malaga / Andalucia; Tarragona / Catalonia (Spain); Hawaii (USA) 20 Aug 2011 Estonia; Hungary; Morocco; Beira / Sofala (Mozambique); Viana do Castelo / Viana do Castelo (Portugal) 21 Aug 2011 Karwar, Mangalore, New Mangalore / Karnataka (India); Iran; Morocco; Quelimane / Zambezia (Mozambique); Funchal / Madeira (Portugal) 2011 by BMTI gmbh for. All rights reserved. Europe's leading trend experts for the shipping industry 17 August 2011 Page 2 of 5 Yr29/163

3 BMTI forex crossrates USD/EURO GBP JPY CHF DKK SEK NOK Baltic Indices for. Actuals Previous % Trend Min/Maxlast 12 mos DRY (BDI): 1,344 (1,306) + 3% + 38 CAPESIZE (BCI): 1,951 (1,870) + 4% + 81 PANAMAX (BPI): 1,568 (1,541) + 2% + 27 SUPRAMAX (BSI): 1,282 (1,267) + 1% + 15 HANDYSIZE (BHSI): 643 (641) 0% + 2 All BEX data are published with one business day delay. 1,043 2,995 1,281 4,461 1,296 3,396 1,086 2, ,085 Min/Max- Volatility ( % from Act. ) 1, % 3, % 2, % 1,056 82% % BMTI's bdi visualizer Baltic Dry Index Analysis up to 17 August 2011 Last 6 months Last 10 weeks Last 10 days BMTI daily future rating Capesize (4 TC / 172k dwt) Panamax (4 TC / 74k dwt) Supramax (5 TC / 52k dwt) Handysize (5 TC / 28k dwt) Aug US$ 10,700 Aug US$ 12,100 Aug US$ 13,475 Aug US$ 9,700 Sep US$ 11,750 Sep US$ 12,550 Sep US$ 13,675 Sep US$ 9,600 Q US$ 11,500 Q US$ 12,150 Q US$ 13,300 Q US$ 9,625 Q US$ 11,350 Q US$ 11,250 Q US$ 12,300 Q US$ 9,350 Y-2012 US$ 12,250 Y-2012 US$ 11,350 Y-2012 US$ 12,175 Y-2012 US$ 9,400 Courtesy of FIS (Ldn). All prices are basis midprice between best bid and offer 1300 London Time. Contract routes are as per the current Baltic route definitions. All prices are indications of current market level. Europe's leading trend experts for the shipping industry 17 August 2011 Page 3 of 5 Yr29/163

4 Wednesday, 17 August 2011 BMTI timecharter These fixtures are gathered daily from a variety of shipping market participants in contact with BMTI. Dely Rotterdam 18/20Aug TCT redel Singapore-Japan acct Classic Maritime "FMG Matilda" 178,062dwt blt08 USD 26,000 Dely Kwangyang 15/17Aug TCT via Australia redel Far East acct Sinoeast "David Schulte" 93,062dwt blt10 USD 8,000 Dely Longkou 15/17Aug TCT via NoPac redel Far East with sulphur acct Sinotrans "Nord Phoenix" 82,471dwt blt07 USD 9,750 Dely Hong Kong 21/23Aug TCT via Indonesia redel China acct Crossbridge "Golden Empress" 79,741dwt blt10 USD 9,500 Dely psg Cape Town 29Aug/03Sep TCT via ECSA redel Singapore-Japan acct unnamed chars "Coral Diamond" 76,596dwt blt on USD 21,500 Dely Qingdao 18/20Aug TCT Newcastle redel Malaysia acct Cargill "Fortune East" 75,615dwt blt00 USD 8,000 Dely La Corunna 16/18Aug TCT l'legs redel Skaw-Gibraltar acct ABT "Darya Shree" 74,823dwt blt04 USD 15,500 Dely Mississippi 26/31Aug TCT redel Hunterston with coal acct Cargill "Boreal" 74,181dwt blt02 14 on USD 14,000 Dely Aughinish 18/22Aug TCT via St.Lawrence/Egypt option Sudan redel C.Passero acct Mina Shipping Dmcc "Huang Shan Hai" 72,873dwt blt98 13 on 32 ndas USD 15,500 Dely Gibraltar 20/22Aug TCT 2 l'legs redel Skaw-Passero acct unnamed chars "Lopi Z" 71,982dwt blt98 USD 16,000 Dely Surabaya 18/25Aug TCT via Indonesia redel S.China acct North China Shipping "Joyous Age" 69,271dwt blt94 USD 13,000 Dely psg Taichung 18/24Aug TCT via Indonesia redel S.Korea acct STX Pan Ocean "Silver Mei" 68,676dwt blt89 USD 9,000 Dely Zhuhai 16/18Aug TCT via Indonesia redel EC India option WC India acct unnamed chars "Consolidator" 58,811dwt blt on USD 16,500 option 18,000 (fixed end last week) Dely ex yard S.Korea endaug 12 months trading redel wwide acct GMI "DN Vatan" 58,500dwt blt11 USD 12,550 (fixed last week) Dely Jintang 17/22Aug 3-5 months trading redel wwide acct HMM "Maritime Setoshio" 55,765dwt blt on USD 14,500 Europe's leading trend experts for the shipping industry 17 August 2011 Page 4 of 5 Yr29/163

5 Dely US Gulf 18/21Aug TCT redel East Med with petcoke acct U-Sea Bulk "Sea Lily" 52,471dwt blt04 14 on 30 USD 27,500 Dely Japan spot TCT 4-6 months trading redel wwide acct Norden "Navios Achilles" 52,055dwt blt on 30.5 USD 14,000 Dely dop Brisbane spot TCT redel N.China acct Pacbasin "Amazing Grace" 47,243dwt blt98 USD 8,000 + USD 175,000 BB ( Correction of fixture ) chars corrected Dely Maputo elysep TCT redel Turkey acct Cargill "Brother Glory" 46,211dwt blt98 USD 13,750 Dely Philippines 13/14Aug TCT via New Zealand redel Singapore-Japan with logs acct unnamed chars "ID North Sea" 28,367dwt blt09 USD 11,125 (fixed end last week) Dely aps Aruba 21/22Aug TCT redel Morocco acct Copenship "Westgate" 28,202dwt blt11 USD 15,000 Dely Tasmania endaug TCT via Australia redel China acct unnamed chars "Golden Star" 26,444dwt blt95 USD 8,500 + USD 180,000 BB (fixed end last week) COAL Bolivar to Iskenderun 05/10Sep 150,000ts/10 acct Oldendorff "Leo Felicity" blt10 50,000sc/30,000sc USD Norfolk to 1 port Netherlands & Ghent 25Aug/03Sep 65,000ts/10 acct Arcelor Mittal "Navios Libra II" blt95 25,000sc/20,000sc & 22,000sc fio USD ORE Port Hedland to Qingdao endaug 170,000ts/10 acct FMG "Edward N." blt11 SCALE/15,000sc fio USD 8.45 Tubarao to Qingdao 20/30Sep 160,000ts/10 acct Louis Dreyfus "TBN" SCALE/15,000sc fio USD Dampier to Qingdao endaug 160,000ts/10 acct Morgan Stanley "TBN" SCALE/15,000sc fio USD 8.40 this report is distributed for the primary use of the BMTI subscriber. and must not be redistributed by any means unless a specific agreement in writing with BMTI gmbh has been achieved. in case of breach of the subscription contract, the BMTI subscribers may be subject of a contractual penalty of us$ 10,000 sued by BMTI as compensation. all reported details are believed to be correct but without guarantee! all BEX data are published with one business day delay. BMTI brokers markt & trend informationen gmbh Triberger Straße 9 D Berlin Responsible / MD: H.Piper T +49 / F +49 / sales@bmti.de Amtsgericht Berlin HRB Europe's leading trend experts for the shipping industry 17 August 2011 Page 5 of 5 Yr29/163