Dry Bulk Insight. Prices and rates fall as suppliers fight. contents Summary 01
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- Horace Barrett
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1 Dry Bulk Insight Monthly Analysis of the Dry Bulk Market issue 61 april 9 Radarwatch The prolonged ore negotiations pulled the market down as rates declined despite increase in chartering volumes Bangladeshi High Court ruling that all breaking yards operating without environmental clearance should close within two weeks could temporarily halt the scrapping activity TCE Earnings ($pd) * Feb Mar Capesize 115,86 3,13 4,99 3,33 Panamax 67,95 21,65 21,755 3,9 Handymax 35,65 6,4 6,42 9,295 Handy 22,31 5,7 5,6 8,955 * Average - Year to Date No activity was reported in the newbuilding market, bringing some relief to the overtonnaged market. Baosteel announced price cut for the third time this quarter but it failed to make new orders competitive for owners Prices and rates fall as suppliers fight The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) shed 399 points this month to reach 1,615. Freight rates on major Capesize coal trading routes fell by an average 16%. Coal FOB prices also came down by nearly 5% year-on-year (as seen in the graph below). Low freight rates, coupled with falling commodity prices, are expected to intensify competition in the international coal market, as the trend makes it cheaper to ship coal over long distances. The market is bound to be demand-driven in these dire economic conditions and suppliers will have to place their product competitively. Chubu Electric was the first Japanese power utility to settle prices with its Australian thermal coal suppliers for the Japanese financial year 29. An average settlement price for $71/mt for thermal contract tonnage is 44% lower than 28 price levels, which were settled at an average price of $125/mt FOB basis Australia. Meanwhile BHP Billiton and Mitsubishi Alliance settled the benchmark 29 coking coal prices at a high $129/mt with Nippon Steel. The price achieved is very high considering the current state of low steel utilisation rates. But a big question hangs over the volume of exports, as Japanese steel production is projected to contract significantly this year. Japanese steel production in February fell by 44% year-on-year. Global export steel plate price also continued its downward journey. Since last year s high of $1,25/mt, the global recession has engulfed the United States and much of Europe, dampening steel demand and pushing prices down by more than half, to $538/mt currently. The steel price outlook hinges on demand from infrastructure and other announced plans and lowering input costs. Drewry Dry Bulk Earnings Index 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Mar 7 Mar 8 Index (Jan 1 = 1) Average (of months shown) Mar 9 Coal Prices FOB ($/mt) 2 Newcastle FOB Mar 7 Jul 7 Nov 7 Mar 8 Richards Bay FOB Jul 8 Nov 8 Mar 9 Market Barometer Current MARKET POSITION contents Summary 1 Bulk Focus 2 Fleet Focus 3 Handy 7 Financials 8 Indices and FFAs 9 Capesize 4 Market Summaries 1-11 WEAK Previous MARKET DIRECTION STRONG Panamax 5 Handymax 6 Methodology Notes 12 Contacts 12 1
2 bulkfocus Market Indicators Low High Steel production Iron ore trade Coal trade Grain trade legend Position Rising Falling Static Seaborne Dry Bulk Trade (Mt) 28(p) 4Q8(p) 1Q9(f) 2Q9(f) 3Q9(f) Iron Ore Steam Coal Coking Coal Grain Minor Bulks 1, Total Trade 3, (P) Provisional Data (F) Forecast Data Mineral misery; corn dogged by rain One of the largest mining companies, Vale, has started working on its $1.3 billion metallurgical and thermal coal project in Mozambique. It will take some time before production starts at one of the largest coal reserves in the world. This has a proposed capacity of 11 million tonnes of coal per annum. China s Coal Energy Company had already invested 12 billion yuan into a large coal and chemical project in Jixi City of North eastern China s Heilonggjiang Province to market coal abroad and domestically. However, given the gloomy market outlook, Coal Energy has reportedly decided to suspend further investments and wait hopefully for the market to improve. Domestic aluminium producers in India had approached the country s Safeguards Office for the imposition of safeguard duty on imports of aluminium products from China. The Indian Finance Ministry has accordingly imposed provisional safeguards duty pegged at 21% on imports of aluminium flat-rolled products and a duty of 35% on aluminium foils from China effective until 8 October. US corn production is likely to be cut back next year because cold and wet weather conditions are likely to reduce planting acreage. Corn needs warm conditions for germination, and the bad weather has left traders concerned over continued planting delays. This is the time for planting corn and the delay could prompt some producers to switch part of their corn acres to soybeans. This would badly hurt corn production, which is already reeling under extreme pressure from lower oil prices. april 9 Major Iron Ore Importers ( tonnes) Major Grain Exporters ( tonnes) 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Feb 8 May 8 EU Aug 8 Japan Nov 8 China Feb 9 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Feb 8 USA May 8 Canada Aug 8 Nov 8 Argentina Feb 9 Major Coal Importers ( tonnes) Major Steel Producers ( tonnes) 2, 15, 1, 5, Feb 8 EU May 8 Japan Aug 8 Nov 8 Sth Korea Feb 9 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Feb 8 May 8 US Aug 8 Japan Nov 8 China Feb 9 2 Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd
3 fleetfocus Total Dry Bulk Fleet: March 29 Fleet Development ( dwt) april 9 Size Total ( dwt) No. Dwt Fleet Size 1-4 2,692 73,285, ,77 83,287, ,38 98,948, ,736, ,94, ,822,912 Total 6, ,21, Jul 8 Deliveries Sep 8 Deletions Nov 8 Fleet (Right axis) Jan 9 Mar 9 legend Position Rising Falling Static Fleet Age Profile and Orderbook Delivery Schedule (m dwt) Handysize Handymax Panamax 11 Capesize Orderbook: M dwt <= Current Fleet - year delivered : number of vessels (Right axis) Orderbook - scheduled delivery : number of vessels (Right axis) ,3 1,2 1,1 1, Total Dry Bulk Fleet & Orderbook: March 29 Orderbook Size Existing Fleet Total % of Fleet ( dwt) No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt Dwt 1-4 2,692 73, , , , , , ,77 83, , , , , , ,38 98, ,84 7 4, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Total 6, , ,42 1,238 18, , ,538 3, , Major Dry Bulk Builders Size Total ( dwt) No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt No. Dwt China , , , , , ,572 1,63 138,582 Japan 236 7, , , , , , ,282 S. Korea 25 6, , , , , ,19 Others 92 2, , , ,35 4 1, ,413 Total , , , , , ,698 3, ,385 3
4 capesize11, + dwt Market Indicators Rates Demand Supply New orders Orderbook Scrapping SH sales NB prices SH values Low High legend Position Rising Falling Static Heavy sourcing of iron ore into China The big three miners; Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP, fixed a total of 67 vessels over March (while 3 were fixed in the previous month) under which a total of million tonnes of iron ore will be shipped into China. But it was still not enough to curtail the decline in freight rates. The Baltic Capesize Index lost 897 points and closed at 2,66. The huge influx of iron ore into China is expected to put pressure on freight rates. Over 1Q9 a total of million tonnes of iron ore has been fixed to be shipped into China, which is up by 119% year-on-year. China Iron & Steel Association (CISA) says China s steel export in February was 1.56 million tonnes, down by 18% month-on-month and down by 5% year-on-year. Steel exports for March and April are estimated at.3 million tonnes and.12 million tonnes respectively. Overall Increasing iron ore stockpiles and decline in Chinese steel exports led to a decline in spot rates. Prominent Brazil and Australia to China spot rates closed at $15.93/mt (down by $6.7/mt) and $6.74/mt (down by $1.33/mt) respectively. april 9 Capesize Earnings Index 2,8 2,4 Index Jan1 = 1 Average (period shown) Capesize Rates ($pd) , Tubarao-Rttdam ($/mt) ,6 1,2 8 4 Tubarao-China ($/mt) WAus-China ($/mt) Pt Bolivar-ARA ($/mt) Fronthaul Trip 143,52 37,36 23,38 5,245 38,465 Transpacific Trip 11,87 22,19 12,78 33,155 2,625 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Time Charter (1yr) 116,18 26,47 22, 31, 26,4 Time Charter (3yr) 75,3 21,33 21, 22, 21, Capesize Fleet Development m dwt Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values Jul 8 Deliveries Sep 8 Deletions Nov 8 Fleet (Right axis) Jan 9 Mar NB Price $m 17, dwt , dwt SH Price $m 17, dwt (5yr) , dwt (1yr) , dwt (1yr) SH 5yr % of NB 124.4% 57.6% 55.5% 57.9% 59.3% Scrap Value $m Capesize Earnings ($pd) Investment Returns 2, 15, TC rate NB* SH-5yr* 29 Mar 29 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) Cost - $m Operating Costs - $pd 7,555 7,555 1, Required TC Rate - for 1% IRR $pd 35,2 21,7 5, Current Rate - T/C $pd 26,4 26,4 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 * Required rate for 1% IRR 1Q9 Jan Feb Mar Current Rate of Return (IRR) % 6.42% 14.33% Sensitivity (+/- $1, T/C rate).46%.9% 4
5 panamax6-11,dwt Market Indicators Rates Demand Supply Low High Grain shipments provide helping hand The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) reached an annual high of 2,147 points on the back of an increase in grain cargoes out of South America and US Gulf. The decline in Capesize freight rates narrowed down the profitability of a charterer splitting Capesize cargoes. As a result the BPI lost 168 points and closed at 1,374. april 9 New orders Orderbook Scrapping SH sales NB prices SH values legend Position Rising Falling Static Spot rates on USG to Japan and ARA stood at $46.5/mt (up by $11/mt) and $32.25/mt (up by $6.75/mt) respectively. The major grain players; Cargill, Louis Dreyfus and Bunge; were quite active and fixed 39 vessels between them. The newbuilding market was devoid of any activity, but the secondhand market continued to attract considerable tonnage. On the secondhand market nine vessels amounting to 6.56 million dwt were exchanged. In the most significant deal, Orient Line sold the 24-built Bellflower (76,423 dwt) to a Greek owner for a very strong price of $5 million. Panamax Earnings Index 1,2 1, 8 6 Index Jan1=1 Average (period shown) Panamax Rates ($pd) US Gulf-Japan ($/mt) E.Aus-Japan ($/mt) Richards Bay-Med ($/mt) TA Trip 62,33 16,88 9,14 17,945 23,565 TP Trip 43,27 7,35 2,125 7,72 12,25 India/-/FE 53,53 12,25 8,25 15,5 13, Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Time Charter (1yr) 56,48 14,47 12, 15,6 15,8 Time Charter (3yr) 41,86 16,53 16,2 17, 16,4 Panamax Fleet Development m dwt Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values Jul 8 Deliveries Sep 8 Deletions Nov 8 Fleet (Right axis) Jan 9 Mar NB Price $M 75, dwt , dwt SH Price $M 75, dwt (5yr) , dwt (1yr) SH 5yr % of NB 127.4% 66.6% 64.% 66.7% 69.% Scrap Value $M Panamax Earnings ($pd) Investment Returns 1, 8, TC rate NB* SH-5yr* 29 Mar 29 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) Cost $M , Operating Costs $pd 6,615 6,615 4, 2, 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 * Required rate for 1% IRR 1Q9 Jan Feb Mar Required TC Rate - for 1% IRR $pd 22,1 16, Current Rate - T/C $pd 15,8 15,8 Current Rate of Return (IRR) % 5.16% 9.71% Sensitivity (+/- $1, T/C rate).89% 1.52% 5
6 handymax4-6,dwt Market Indicators Rates Demand Supply Low High Mixed reactions in Supramax segment The Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) moved in tandem with the Panamax sector and, after peaking at 1,735 points, started its descent to close the month at 1,288. Grain shipments from the US Gulf to Continent helped in strengthening the rates further by some 24%. Norden fixed the 22-built Nena J (43,23 dwt) on this route at $33,pd. april 9 New orders Orderbook Scrapping SH sales NB prices The huge overtonnaging situation prevalent in the Pacific Basin made shipowners reluctant to charter vessels there. Owners who did deploy their vessels demanded a good premium and thus the rates on the Continent-Far East route surged to $3,44pd, up by 6%. Reduced iron ore shipments from India to China dampened freight rates on this particular route. AHT chartered in the 1995-built Griffon (6,635 dwt) from Goa-China at a weak rate of $1,5pd. SH values legend Position Rising Falling Static Although secondhand asset values softened, there was a surge in activity. Demolition activity continued to slacken despite some firm prices being offered by breakers. Handymax Earnings Index Index Jan1=1 Average (period shown) Handymax Rates ($pd) Cont/-/FE 46,91 18,28 5,43 18,98 3,44 TP Trip 31,66 6,48 3,525 6,5 9,415 FE/-/Cont 27,69 5,18 3,65 5,535 6,34 US Gulf/Cont 58,74 2,35 7,475 23,89 29,69 4 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Time Charter (1yr) 43,9 12,23 1,5 13, 13,2 Time Charter (3yr) 28,68 12,23 12, 12,5 12,2 Handymax Fleet Development - m dwt Deliveries Deletions Fleet (Right axis) Jul 8 Sep 8 Nov 8 Jan 9 79 Mar 9 Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values NB Price $m 55, dwt SH Price $m 45,dwt (5yr) ,dwt (5yr) SH 5yr % of NB 18.3% 62.6% 61.% 64.% 62.7% Scrap Value $m Handymax Earnings ($pd) Investment Returns 8, 7, 6, 5, TC rate NB* SH-5yr* 29 Mar 29 Newbuild Secondhand (5yr) Cost - $m Operating Costs - $pd 6,4 6,4 4, 3, 2, Required TC Rate - for 1% IRR $pd 19,9 14,3 Current Rate - T/C $pd 13,2 13,2 1, 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 * Required rate for 1% IRR 1Q9 Jan Feb Mar Current Rate of Return (IRR) % 4.7% 8.8% Sensitivity (+/- $1, T/C rate) 1.8% 1.8% 6
7 handy1-4,dwt Market Indicators Low High Rates Demand Supply New orders Orderbook Scrapping SH sales NB prices SH values legend Position Rising Falling Static Handysize strengthens further Grains, pet coke and steel cargoes out of the Black Sea helped the Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI) to strengthen further over the month by 6 points and close at 688. Transatlantic trip rates, on the back of strong tonnage demand from the Black Sea and East Mediterranean, stood at $9,7pd, up by 77%. EMR fixed the 1995-built Lake Aru (26,435 dwt) for a transatlantic trip at a very strong rate of $17,25pd. Although transpacific trip rates also surged, by the end of the month there was uncertainty about the sustainability of this rise. IHC fixed the 24-built Clipper Lasco (28,2 dwt) for a transpacific trip at a healthy rate of $9,75pd. On the period market no long-term fixture emerged because of a nervousness among the charterers, but some strong short-term period fixtures were reported. The surge in freight rates had a direct impact on the asset market. Secondhand activity picked up but mainly involved old tonnage that would otherwise have been sent to the demolition yards. april 9 Top Ten Handysize Owners m dwt Handy Rates ($pd) China S hipping COSCO China Govt Polska Zegluga P recious S hipping Bulgare Navigation V inalines Pacific Basin Mitsui OS K Lines STX Pan Ocean TA Trip 22,59 5,77 3,115 5,125 9,7 TP Trip 26,56 6,25 4,16 5,91 8,675 Time Charter (1yr) 24,18 7,75 6,5 8,3 8,45 Time Charter (3yr) 21,8 9,3 9, 9,5 9,4 Handy Fleet Development m dwt Jul 8 Deliveries Sep 8 Deletions Nov 8 Fleet (Right axis) Jan 9 Mar 9 Newbuild, Secondhand Scrap Values NB Price $m 3,dwt SH Price $m 28, dwt (1yr) , dwt (15yr) SH 1yr % of NB 79.4% 53.5% 52.4% 54.8% 53.2% Scrap Value $M Handy Earnings ($pd) Investment Returns 35, 3, TC rate NB* SH-1yr* 29 Mar 29 Newbuild Secondhand (1yr) Cost - $m , 2, 15, Operating Costs - $pd 5,655 5,655 Required TC Rate - for 1% IRR $pd 17,2 11,5 1, 5, 1Q8 2Q8 3Q8 4Q8 * Required rate for 1% IRR 1Q9 Jan Feb Mar Current Rate - T/C $pd 8,45 8,45 Current Rate of Return (IRR) % -1.8%.42% Sensitivity (+/- $1, T/C rate) 2.12% 3.76% 7
8 financials Dry bulk stocks gain on local bourse Despite the softening in the Baltic Dry Index, the majority of dry bulk stocks strengthened over the month. The major gains were from DryShips (51.2%), Excel Maritime (41.2%), Star Bulk Carriers (36.2%) and Hanjin Shipping (35.6%). DryShips made a strong comeback after the previous month s 6% decline. Its subsidiary Ocean Rig Drilling won a $63 million contract from the world s largest Ultra-deepwater drilling operator, Petrobras. Excel Maritime stock had also suffered a severe decline but with owners injecting $45 million as fresh equity, it is now in a better position to survive the current downturn. Due to the huge decline in asset prices, Excel Maritime was badly in need of new capital, partly because it had breached loan covenants. US Listed Shipping Stock Performance Excel Maritime Euroseas Safe Bulkers Dry Ships 12 Star Bulk Carriers Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 april 9 The decision of Hanjin Shipping, South Korea s largest shipping company, to issue a 1% cash dividend for the tenth year running was also well greeted. But the stock of Safe Bulkers was still in red as it declined by 18% (after declining by 42% in the previous month). Also investors were not attracted by the Euroseas stock despite its decision to pay out attractive dividends. Dry Bulk Stocks - Snapshot Company Country Price* % Monthly 52 Week 52 Week P/E Last week Market Cap change High Low Ratio Avg Vol (M USD) Chowgule Steamships India % ,88 18 Inui Steamship Japan % 1, , Jinhui Shipping Transport Norway % , Cosco Corporation Singapore % ,261,6 1,25 First Steamship Taiwan % ,318, U-Ming MarineTransport Corporation Taiwan % ,997,24 1,372 Precious Shipping Thailand % ,262,1 238 Diana Shipping USA % ,787, Genco Shipping USA % ,719, Excel Maritime USA % ,925, Eagle Bulk Shipping USA % ,988,567 2 Safe Bulkers USA % , Euroseas USA % , Predominantly Dry Bulk Companies** Algoma Central Corporation Canada % , China Shipping Haisheng 'A' China % ,692, Ningbo Marine 'A' China % n/a n/a D/S Norden Denmark % , Daiichi Chuo Kisen Kaisha Japan % ,971,2 461 Eidsiva Rederi Norway 13..% n/a n/a Hanjin Shipping S.Korea 2,. 35.6% 5,1. 1, ,459,273 1,294 Korea Line Corporation S.Korea 64,. 2.1% 236,5. 46, , Sincere Navigation Corporation Taiwan % ,876, DryShips Inc. USA % ,329, Star Bulk Carriers USA % , Ocean Freight USA % ,26 29 * All prices in local currencies as on 3 rd April 29 ** Dry bulk tonnage more than 2/3 rd of owned tonnage Three most active companies - by the number of shares traded in the last week irrespective of the price and market cap 8
9 indices and ffas Baltic Indices: BDI Baltic Indices: BHSI april 9 14,5 3,5 12,5 3, 1,5 2,5 8,5 2, 6,5 1,5 4,5 1, 2,5 5 5 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Baltic Indices: BCI Baltic Ship Valuation Assessment 25, 18 Capesize Panamax Super Handymax 2, , 12 1, 1 8 5, 6 4 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 2 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Baltic Indices: BPI BFA C4 Richards Bay/Rotterdam 14, , 1, 8, , , 2, Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Jul Aug Sep 7.8 Baltic Indices: BSI BFA P2a Fronthaul Trip 8, 14, 14,7 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 14,65 14,6 14,55 14,5 14,45 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Mar 8 Jun 8 Sep 8 Dec 8 Mar 9 Jul Aug Sep 14,4 Source: All indices - The Baltic Exchange 9
10 marketsummaries Fleet Supply april * Feb Mar No ' Dwt No ' Dwt No ' Dwt No ' Dwt No ' Dwt Fleet Size - End period 1-4, 2,669 72,761 2,755 75,129 2,692 73,286 2,714 73,877 2,692 73, , 1,586 76,487 1,697 82,552 1,77 83,287 1,697 82,656 1,77 83, , 1,344 95,993 1,383 99,5 1,38 98,949 1,382 99,56 1,38 98, , , , , , , , , , , , ,94 2, , , , , ,823 Total 6,579 4,6 6, ,246 6, ,21 6, ,23 6, ,21 Orderbook 1-4, , , , , , , 728 4, , , , ,53 6-8, 24 15, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,948 2, , , , , ,698 Total 2, ,537 3, ,935 3, ,385 3,42 294,731 3, ,385 % Fleet 54.1% 7.% 69.6% 7.% 69.6% New orders 1-4, 273 9, , , , , , 77 6, , , , , , , , , , ,753 Total 1, , , Deliveries** 1-4, 82 2, , , 93 4, , , , 45 3, , , 4 3, , , 32 5, , ,+ 2 4, ,128 Total , , , Deletions 1-4, ,5 84 2, , , , ,+ 11 1,68 7 1, Total , ,78 4 1, ,93 Second-hand Sales 1-4, 33 7, , , , 197 7, , , , ,35 8 5, , , 16 1, , , , ,6 7 1, Total 85 42, ,5 16 8, , ,833 * Year to date ** Provisional deliveries for Mar 29 1 Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd
11 marketsummaries Drewry Prices april 9 Newbuilding Price (US$m) Scrap Value (US$m) Scrap Price ($/ldt) * Feb Mar * Feb Mar Mar Size 25-3, dwt** , dwt** , dwt , dwt Second-hand Value (US$m, 5 year old) * Feb Mar Vessel Size 35-4, dwt , dwt , dwt , dwt * Feb Mar Vessel Size 25-3, dwt , dwt , dwt , dwt ** Geared (25 tonne cranes) Second-hand Value (US$m, 1 year old) Freight Rates Capesize * Feb Mar Handymax * Feb Mar Freight Rate $/mt Trip Rate $pd Tubarao - Rotterdam Cont/-/Far East 47,77 46,91 18,28 18,98 3,44 Tubarao - China Transpacific Trip 44,67 31,66 6,48 6,5 9,415 W Aus - China FE/-/Cont 44,715 27,69 5,18 5,535 6,34 US Gulf/Cont 68,63 58,74 2,35 23,89 29,69 Trip Rate $pd Fronthaul trip 148, ,52 37,36 5,245 38,465 TC Rate (1yr) TC Rate 5 Year Old $/day 12, ,18 26,47 31, 26,4 5 Year Old $/day 43,945 43,9 12,23 13, 13,2 1 Year Old $/day 84,4 93,88 21,53 25,2 21,4 1 Year Old $/day 38,4 36,75 1,23 11, 11,2 TC Rate (3yr) TC Rate (3yr) 5 Year Old $/day 74, 75,3 21,33 22, 21, 5 Year Old $/day 33,665 28,68 12,23 12,5 12,2 Panamax * Feb Mar Handysize * Feb Mar Freight Rate $/mt Trip Rate $pd US Gulf - Japan Transatlantic Trip 27,65 22,59 5,77 5,125 9,7 Transpacific Trip 31,5 26,56 6,25 5,91 8,675 Trip Rate $pd Transatlantic Trip 61,48 62,33 16,88 17,945 23,565 Transpacific Trip 54,96 43,27 7,35 7,72 12,25 TC Rate TC Rate 5 Year Old $/day 52,23 56,48 14,47 15,6 15,8 1 Year Old $/day 23,2 24,11 7,75 8,3 8,45 1 Year Old $/day 49, 53,56 12,83 13,8 14, TC Rate (3yr) TC Rate (3yr) 5 Year Old $/day 38,65 41,86 16,53 17, 16,4 5 Year Old $/day 21,915 21,1 9,3 9,5 9,4 * Year to date average 11 Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd
12 methodologynotes The Drewry Dry Bulk Earnings Index april 9 The Drewry Dry Bulk Earnings Index takes eighteen different trade routes covering the four sectors of the dry bulk market. Each route is weighted within its market to produce a time charter earnings Index. For the sake of this publication January 22 was designated the starting point at which all the indices = 1. Assumptions for Investment Return calculations Newbuilding - Delivery in 24 months, 25 year trading life. Secondhand - Prompt delivery five year-old, 2 year trading life. Residual value based on prevailing scrap rates 29 operating costs. 36 trading days. Sensitivity implies for a $1,pd change in TC Rate, the given change in IRR is produced. Sources All Baltic indices on page 9 sourced from The Baltic Exchange. contactdetails Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Telephone: +44 () Fax: +44 () Web Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd Drewry House, Meridian Gate - South Quay 213 Marsh Wall, London E14 9FJ United Kingdom Dry Bulk Insight Editor: Susan Oatway, Senior Consultant Contact: Jaya Banik, Research Analyst banik@drewry.co.uk COPYRIGHT NOTICE This report is copyright and is for the sole use of the purchaser and is not to be copied or distributed outside to any third party organisation. Reproduction, scanning into an electronic retrieval system, or copying to a database is strictly prohibited without written permission of the publisher. Contravention will result in a requirement to pay damages to the publisher and owner of the copyright, Drewry Shipping Consultants Ltd. While the information is presented in good faith, the publisher cannot accept liability for any errors of fact or opinion contained in the report. 12
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