THE SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY 2018 TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES
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1 THE SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY 2018 TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES KGCCI HALF-YEAR ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 28 TH AUGUST 2018 Alexander Hirschle Director Germany Trade & Invest Korea
2 Korean Economy 2018 Overview 1. GDP-Growth 2. Consumption 3. Investment 4. Exports 5. Imports 6. Sectors/Industry Perspectives Germany Trade & Invest 2
3 Korean Economy GDP GDP Growth of Korea yoy 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 3,1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: BOK ; 2018 and 2019: Forecast Germany Trade & Invest 3
4 Korean Economy GDP 12.0% GDP Growth of Korea yoy (long term) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Source: BOK ; 2018 and 2019: Forecast Germany Trade & Invest 4
5 Korean Economy GDP GDP Growth of Korea by quarter *) 1.4% % 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% % 0.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 2016 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2-0,2% Source: BOK ; *) on prev. quarter Germany Trade & Invest 5
6 Korean Economy GDP GDP-growth (in %) ) ) GDP Growth 3,1 2,9 2,8 Consumption (private) 2,6 2,7 2,7 Facility Investment 14,6 1,2 1,7 Construction Investment 7,6-0,5-2,2 Export 2) 15,8 5,6 1,5 Import 2) 18,3 11,6 1,3 Source: BOK; 1) forecast; 2) value goods, customs cleared Germany Trade & Invest 6
7 Korean Economy GDP GDP Growth of Korea 2018 *) 12.0% 11.6% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 2.7% 5.6% 4.0% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% -0.5% -2.0% Consumption Fac. Investment Construction Investment Exports Imports Source: BOK; *) forecast Germany Trade & Invest 9
8 Korean Economy GDP GDP Growth of Korea 2019 *) 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Consumption Fac. Investment Construction Investment Exports Imports -2.0% -2.5% -2.2% Source: BOK; *) forecast Germany Trade & Invest 10
9 Korean Economy Consumption Composite Consumer Sentiment Index Election Moon NK crisis End of honeymoon 100 Impeachment Jul 16 Aug 16 Sep 16 Okt 16 Nov 16 Dez 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mrz 17 Apr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Dez 17 Jan 18 Feb 18 Mrz 18 Apr 18 Mai 18 Jun 18 Jul 18 Source: BOK Germany Trade & Invest 11
10 Korean Economy Consumption 1.0% Private Consumption Growth by quarter *) 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.8% % 0.5% % 0.3% 0.2% 0,3% 0.1% 0.0% 2017 Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Source: BOK ; *) on prev. quarter Germany Trade & Invest 12
11 Korean Economy Consumption o Relatively low because of structural problems Youth unemployment 1) o (demographics, education costs, household debt) 2017: strong increase in consumer confidence (end of political incertainty) Expectations related with new government (plan for income-led growth with budget expansion, increase of wages, hiring public employees etc.) o 2018 end of honeymoon 6.0 o Growth still relatively high (2,7%), but: 4.0 Recovery trend has slowed Consumer confidence sinking (June lowest level 2.0 since 14 months) Stock market going down since January 0.0 `2013 `2014 `2015 `2016 `2017 Rising unemployment as biggest concern: Youth unemployment in May 10,5% (+1,3 %-Points) *) between 15 and 29 years, by december 2017; Source: Statistics Korea Only new jobs in July (worst result since 2010) Experts: Most critical situation since financial crisis Germany Trade & Invest 13
12 Korean Economy Consumption Structure of Korean Households 2016 vs 2045 (in % of all housholds) Consumption will be moderate in the years to come! Structural problem with limited growth perspectives in the midterm: Demographics (birthrate 2017: 1,05 = all time low, newborns 12%) Household debt (+8% 2nd quarter 2018 yoy) ,8 Education costs Unemployment Potencial in segments which are influenced from demographic and social factors changes of consumption patterns: Fast aging population = Old 0 Single Two-Person Four-Person Source: Statistics Korea; 2020: forecast Time pressure and moderate economy more Koreans stay in their appartments = Home Number of single-households rising, increasing individualism = Alone Sinking real household income since 2015 Germany Trade & Invest 14
13 Korean Economy Investment Facility Investment Growth by quarter *) 6.0% % 4.0% % 0.2% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 2017 Q Q Q Q4-0.7% 2018 Q Q2-6.0% -8.0% -6,6% Source: BOK ; *) on prev. quarter Germany Trade & Invest 17
14 Korean Economy Investment Facility Investment Growth in %: - Losing dynamic stronger than expected! *) 2019 *) -2.3 Source: BOK; *) 2018, 2019: Forecast Germany Trade & Invest 18
15 Jan 15 Apr 15 Jul 15 Oct 15 Jan 16 Apr 16 Jul 16 Okt 16 Jan 17 Apr 17 Jul 17 Okt 17 Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Korean Economy Investment Business Survey Index (Geschäftsklima) Strong rebound in 2017 Growth was concentrated in and dependent from a few sectors and companies (30 companies responsible for two thirds) Now losing dynamic drastically 2nd quarter facility investment -6,6% Contraction 4 months in row (first since 2000) BOK: Investment will slow to a considerable extent until next year More bad news to come: Insolvencies 1st half % Declining operating profits expected Business survey index 5 %-points to 75 in July = strongest decline since Mers crisis 2015 Source: Compiled figures from industries/korea Herald Positive: Venture Capital +60% 1st half 2018 Germany Trade & Invest 19 But: Relocation of industry continuing
16 Korean Economy Investment Korean companies: Proportion of offshore production Fear of Hollowing out Manufacturing companies relocating their facilities abroad with increasing speed Outbound investment last 17 years double of inbound FDI (KRI) 60.0 Already now very proportion of offshore production in some sectors (ex Smartphone ) Reasons: 20.0 Closer to market 0.0 TV sets Mobile Phones Washing Mashines Refrigerators Trade protectionism (diversification) Labor costs will increase! Source: Compiled figures from industries/korea Herald Germany Trade & Invest 20
17 Korean Economy Investment Minimum Wage Growth (in Korean Won) 9,000 8,000 7,530 8,350 7,000 6,000 5,580 6,030 6,470 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Minimum Wage Commission Germany Trade & Invest 21
18 Korean Economy Investment Construction Investment Growth in % Reasons: Decreasing number of construction starts residential and commercial buildings/reduced SOC-budget *) 2019 *) Source: BOK; *) 2018, 2019: Forecast Germany Trade & Invest 23
19 July 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Oct 2016 Nov 2016 Dec 2016 Jan 2017 Feb 2017 Mar 2017 Apr 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 Aug 2017 Sep 2017 Oct 2017 Nov 2017 Dec 2017 Jan 2018 Feb 2018 Mar 2018 Apr 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Korean Economy Exports Exports: 1st half ,5% 2017 strong rebound with +16% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% Saved the result of Korean economy last and especially this year Heavily influenced by semiconductor demand Other sectors still suffering and struggling (automobiles, telecommunication) From the september 2017 declining growth rates 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% Further downside risks/warning signs: Trade conflict USA China (46% of exports) Intermediate products exported to China for use in home appliances, computers, telecommunic. Highly reliant on a few countries and sectors (30 companies responsible for two thirds of exports) Exports to Vietnam stagnating (after +50% 2017) Source: MOTIE Other countries catching up (China) and Korea losing market share worldwide Germany Trade & Invest 24 OECD: Key sectors in complex and structural crisis!
20 Korean Economy Exports 30.0% Korean Exports with temporary comeback 28.3% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 13.6% 19.0% 15.8% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% 2,5% 2.3% 5.6% % *) -8.0% -5.9% -13.9% 1.5% 2019 *) Source: KITA, BOK; *) Forecast Germany Trade & Invest 25
21 Korean Economy Exports Export Growth 1 st half 2018 by segment (in %) Source: KITA Germany Trade & Invest 28
22 Korean Economy Exports Export Growth 2017 by segment (in %): Semiconductors vs rest Semiconductors Total Total without SC Source: KITA Germany Trade & Invest 29
23 Korean Economy Exports Export Growth 2017/1 st half 2018 by segment (in %): Semiconductors vs rest Semiconductors Total Total without SC 0.0 Source: KITA Germany Trade & Invest 30
24 Korean Economy Exports 25.0 Semiconductors` proportion in Korean Exports (in %) Dramatic increase and reliance! Source: KITA st half nd half st half 2018 o Boom in the semiconductor industry is hiding the weak points of Koreas industry (OECD) Beginning super-cycle early 2017 Skyrocketing demand and prices Samsung Electronics advanced as the biggest semiconductor company worldwide after 25 years lead of Intel Exports of SC nearly 100 Bio. US$ 2018: exports +43% 1 st half Big question: When will the party end? Still on a high level 2018 Most probable scenario: boom will continue, but much less dynamic 2019 some experts expect falling prices, increased competition from China Germany Trade & Invest 32
25 Korean Economy Imports 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -0.8% Korean Imports: Still high but declining growth 1.9% -16.9% -6.9% 18.3% 11,6% 1.3% *) 2019 *) After years with heavy declines 2017 strong comeback (+18,3%) 2018 still double-digit growth Germany after two years with over-average import growth! Higher dynamic than main competitors Decline in market share stopped Importranking +1 (Nr. 5, surpassing Australia) Import of cars, machinery, chemicals made in Germany with high growth rates Forecast: 2019 losing dynamic Import of manufacturing equipment difficult because of decreasing investment growth Source: MOTIE Germany Trade & Invest 36
26 Korean Economy Imports Korean Imports 1st half 2018 by sector (Growth in %, *) Source: KITA Germany Trade & Invest 39
27 Korean Economy Imports Korean Imports 2017 by Country (Growth in %) Vietnam Australia Saudi Arabia USA Japan China Taiwan Germany Source: MOTIE Germany Trade & Invest 41
28 Korean Economy Imports Korean Imports 1st half 2018 by Country (Growth in %) Vietnam Saudi Arabia Germany USA China Japan Australia Taiwan Source: MOTIE Germany Trade & Invest 42
29 Korean Economy Imports Korean Imports Total vs from Germany (Growth in %) *) Total Imports Imports from Germany Source: KITA; *) 1st half Germany Trade & Invest 43
30 Korean Economy Imports 6.0% Market share of German imports 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.0% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% *) Source: KITA; *) 1st half Germany Trade & Invest 44
31 Korean Economy Imports Korean Imports from Germany by sector (2017, Growth in %) Scientific Apparatus SITC 87 Mach. Spec. SITC 72 Medical and pharm. Prod. SITC 54 Electr. Machinery SITC 77 Machinery Gen. SITC 74 Organic Chemicals SITC Power gen. mach. SITC 71 Road Vehicles SITC Source: KITA Germany Trade & Invest 45
32 Korean Economy Imports Korean Imports from Germany by sector (First half 2018, Growth in %) Road Vehicles SITC 78 Mach. Spec. SITC 72 Chem. Materials SITC SITC 59 Power gen. mach. SITC 71 Machinery Gen. SITC 74 Organic Chemicals SITC 51 Scientific Apparatus SITC 87 Electr. Machinery SITC 77 Medical and pharm. Prod. SITC Source: KITA Germany Trade & Invest 46
33 Korean Economy Imports Korean Imports from Germany by sector compared with total imports (First half 2018, Growth in %) Road Vehicles SITC Mach. Spec. SITC Chem. Materials SITC SITC Power gen. mach. SITC Machinery Gen. SITC Organic Chemicals SITC Scientific Apparatus SITC Electr. Machinery SITC Medical and pharm. Prod. SITC 54 Source: KITA Germany Trade & Invest 47
34 Korean Economy Industry Perspectives Sector Remarks/Forecasts Potential 2018 Automobiles - Difficult period with sales declines - Downgrade of sales forecast for 2018 because of difficult market conditions in US/China - Labour disputes, wage hikes - Supplier: under strong pressure (lower prices) - Import of cars rise 18% 1st half Electric vehicles with high sales increases 2018 Health/ Pharmacy and Cosmetics - Generally good opportunities because of shifts in demand due to older population - Biosimilars with high export increase (US) and expanding facilities - Cosmetics: first signs that boom may have peaked - Tougher competition, weaker demand from China - Import medical/pharm. prod (1st half): +21% - Medical equipment: impulses from gov. Measures ICT/Electronics - Smartphone exports decreasing -17% 1st half China catching up, Samsung losing market share - Mobiel carriers looking shift ot other sectors (security, AI, entertainment) - 5G: 10 Bio. US$ investment in Commercialisation of 5G-serives in March Smart Factories: until 2022 (gov. support) - Huge investments in OLED, world market +16% - Semiconductor: end of boom in 2019? = + +/- Germany Trade & Invest 52
35 Korean Economy Industry Perspectives Sector Remarks/Forecasts Potential 2018 Chemicals - Uncertain market outlook because of global oversupply in some areas (ethylene) - Possible boom in Korea regarding ABS and PVC - Import of chemical materials 1st half 2018: +18% - Refineries with big investment projects, shifting focus to petrochemicals Energy - Energy plans of government: - Strong focus on renewable energy: 20% of total energy in 2030 investment: 100 Bio. $ (-2030) - Shutdown of old coal power plants - Decommissioning of nuclear plants Shipbuilding - After very difficult years hope for revovery - 1st place worldwide in orders 1st half Big companies still in restructuring period - Exports 1st half 2018 strongly decreasing - Production/export forecast 2018: -25% and -50% = +/- - Construction - Construction investment slowing down and declining 2018/19. - Growth in residential building less dynamic because projects of boom 15/16 get completed. - Contraction in new projects expected - Iniatives by government to counterattack speculation (taxes etc.). - Cuts in SOC-budget (Infrastructure) Quellenangabe in eigenem Platzhalter Germany Trade & Invest
36 Korean Economy Growth Growth Potential until until until until until until 2030 Source: BOK (until 2020), KDI (from 2021 to 2030); *) Average; Potencial growth defined as highest level of output that can be sustained over a long term period without external or internal special effects and without triggering inflation. Germany Trade & Invest 54
37 Contact Information Berlin Friedrichstraße Berlin Germany T F Bonn Villemombler Str Bonn Germany T F Seoul Office Alexander Hirschle, Director 8 th Fl. Shinwon Plaza Building 85 Dokseodang-ro, Yongsan-gu Seoul , Korea T. +82 (02) F. +82 (02) Alexander.Hirschle@gtai.de Germany Trade & Invest ist die Wirtschaftsförderungsgesellschaft der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Die Gesellschaft sichert und schafft Arbeitsplätze und stärkt damit den Wirtschaftsstandort Deutschland. Mit über 50 Standorten weltweit und dem Partnernetzwerk unterstützt Germany Trade & Invest deutsche Unternehmen bei ihrem Weg ins Ausland, wirbt für den Standort Deutschland und begleitet ausländische Unternehmen bei der Ansiedlung in Deutschland. Gefördert durch das Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie aufgrund eines Beschlusses des Deutschen Bundestages. Germany Trade & Invest Alle von Germany Trade & Invest zur Verfügung gestellten Informationen wurden mit größtmöglicher Sorgfalt Germany erstellt. Trade Für & Invest die Richtigkeit können wir jedoch keine Haftung übernehmen. 55
THE SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY 2018 TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES
THE SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY 2018 TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES KGCCI ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SEOUL, 25 TH OF JANUARY 2018 Alexander Hirschle Director Germany Trade & Invest Korea www.gtai.de Korean Economy 2017 Overview
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