Osloregionen , Oslo

Transcription

1 2 Osloregionen , Oslo

2 Aim The company aims to accelerate the deployment of better rail services between Oslo and Stockholm and on the cities in between. Owners Municipality of Karlstad Region of Värmland Region of Västmanland Region of Örebro län Municipality of Västerås Municipality of Örebro 3

3 Today 6

4 Oslo Göteborg Malmö Köpenh Trips 0,3M 1,6M 0,7M Depart Time 5 h 3 h 4½ h Air trav. 1,4M 1,3M 2,2M daily commuters between cities 3,4 million people Oslo 1 million Stockholm 1,5 million Göteborg Malmö Source: SCB, Population in station municipalities and population in major metropolitan areas, Köpenhamn 1,3 million 7

5 About Stockholm-Oslo in the proposed NTP Between Stockholm and Oslo there is a great demand for better connections, especially with trains (but also by buses on substretches) to contribute, among other things, to reduced travel by air. Extensive business travel, weekly and daily commuting for work and study and leisure trips are examples of travel in the area. Significant shortcomings need to be handled during the planning period regarding supply, capacity and travel time. Suggested deficiencies: Stockholm to national border to Oslo, capacity problems and long journeys 14

6 Early Swedish planning (ÅVS) is finished The goal is a travel time of max 3 hours. Current infrastructure is not enough. In the short term, capacity measures are needed on the existing track. In the long term, Nobelbanan and a new cross-border connection is needed. 15

7 Railway expansion strategy Traffic administration, ÅVS, Nov 2017 Kind of Action Shorter travel time New rail links Extension of existing railway Maintenance Trimming Traffic Target of action Secure function More capacity Better quality Target year 16

8 Railway expansion strategy Traffic administration, ÅVS, Nov 2017 Kind of Action Shorter travel time New rail links Extension of existing railway Target of action Secure function More capacity Better quality Maintenance Trimming Traffic Target year 17

9 Costs and implementation Part Model Cost Kungsängen-Kolbäck Procurement 200 million SEK Kolbäck-Valskog Procurement million SEK Valskog-Arboga Procurement 90 million SEK Arboga-Hovsta Procurement million SEK Hovsta-Örebro Procurement 80 million SEK Örebro-Kristinehamn Concession million SEK Kristinehamn-Karlstad Procurement million SEK Karlstad-Kil Procurement million SEK Kil-Arvika Procurement million SEK Arvika-Lilleström* Concession million SEK 54,6 billion SEK *of which 12 billion SEK in Norway Ramböll is currently investigating if to expect higher building costs in Norway? 24

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11 Wider benefits (excluding cargo) Effect Value Sweden Million SEK Value Norway Million SEK Total value Million SEK Producer surplus Budget impact Consumer surplus External effects Operation, maintain, reinvest Total

12 Model for sharing responsibility Wider benefits, SEK 67B Capitalize Private Tax Public Profit Building cost, SEK 55B 30

13 Which path is possible? Government funding? OPS/PPP model Concession model Insufficient funds Perceived to not share risks 31

14 32

15 Response on RFI Based in Main focus Asia; 3 Other; 3 Design; 4 Nordics; 9 Finance; 4 Europé; 10 Operate; 2 Bulid; 9 34

16 Increases capacity (7 billion SEK) Important for regional traffic Opens interregional market (14 billion SEK) Important for end point Reduces travel time by almost 1.5 hours and increases capacity (18-24 billion SEK) Increases capacity (15 billion SEK) 36

17 Business Case SEK 32B Green field Concession Private stakeholders and public subsidies Synchronized planning and building Capacity all the way Oslo to Stockholm. Open access SEK 23B Brown field Procurement Governments responsibility 38

18 Business case - benefits What is the consumers willing to pay for reduced travel time? What cost savings and profits can an operator expect? What land value increases can be credited to the project? What regional financing is possible? What financing can cargo traffic provide? What is the government prepared to guarantee and provide? What benefits can be obtained by shorter building time. 40

19 Prices today (lowest cost ticket) Direct flights SAS 15 direct flights a day Tomorrow (OS255) SEK 850 to average Next week (KTH) SEK 960 to average Norwegian 7 direct flights a day SEK 619 to 969 average 788 SEK 398 to 919 average 498 SJ 4 trains a day SEK 385 to 855 average 737 SEK 207 to 721 average 463 Average SEK SEK 643 SEK 600 Arlanda express SEK 280 (Bus SEK 99) SEK 280 (Bus SEK 99) - Flytoget SEK 190 (NOK 180) SEK 190 (NOK 180) - Total SEK SEK SEK 600 Turnover of 1.1M trips SEK 1 859M SEK 707M SEK 660M 41

20 Business case - benefits What is the consumers willing to pay for reduced travel time? What cost savings and profits can an operator expect? What land value increases can be credited to the project? What regional financing is possible? What financing can cargo traffic provide? (SEK) 2017 OS255 Revenue 251M 1 619M Cost 224M 1 139M Profit 27M 480M What is the government prepared to guarantee and provide? What benefits can be obtained by shorter building time. 43

21 KTH Ramböll SJ MTR Alstom Stadler Revenue model WTP Legal Finance Project Oslo-Sthlm 2.55 Organisation Planning Finance model CAPEX Private: Pareto SEB Meridiam Infranode EIB Public: Kommuninv. Riksgälden Green Bonds Implementation model 44

22 Business Case CAPEX SEK25.8B_6+44Y Million SEK Interest Amortize Payoff Year 49

23 Business Case WTP SEK25.8B_6+44Y per Train 1000SEK Year 53

24 Prices today (lowest cost ticket) Direct flights SAS 15 direct flights a day Tomorrow (OS255) SEK 850 to average Next week (KTH) SEK 960 to average Norwegian 7 direct flights a day SEK 619 to 969 average 788 SEK 398 to 919 average 498 SJ 4 trains a day SEK 385 to 855 average 737 SEK 207 to 721 average 463 Average SEK SEK 643 SEK 600 SEK 900 Arlanda express SEK 280 (Bus SEK 99) SEK 280 (Bus SEK 99) - Flytoget SEK 190 (NOK 180) SEK 190 (NOK 180) - Total SEK SEK SEK 600 SEK 900 Turnover SEK 660M SEK 967M 54

25 Project timeline Kv3-17 Kv4-17 Kv1-18 Kv2-18 Kv3-18 Kv4-18 Kv1-19 Kv2-19 Kv4-22 Kv1-23 ÅVS Finance model Meet SS Swe/Nor Implement model KVU/In-depth ÅVS (trace) Grenseban. In-depth ÅVS (trace) Nobelbanan Business Case Investigate Business Case Railwayplan, Grensebanan Railwayplan, Nobelbanan Procure

26 Jonas Karlsson - CEO jonas.karlsson@oslo-sthlm.se Klostergatan 23 SE Örebro 67