Handelskammaren , Stockholm

Transcription

1 2 Handelskammaren , Stockholm

2 Aim The company aims to accelerate the deployment of better rail services between Oslo and Stockholm and on the cities in between. Owner Municipality of Karlstad Region of Värmland Region of Västmanland Region of Örebro län Municipality of Västerås Municipality of Örebro 3

3 Today 6

4 Oslo Göteborg Malmö Köpenh Trips 0,3M 1,6M 0,7M Depart Time 5 h 3 h 4½ h Air trav. 1,4M 1,3M 2,2M daily commuters between cities 3,4 million people Oslo 1 million Stockholm 1,5 million Göteborg Malmö Source: SCB, Population in station municipalities and population in major metropolitan areas, Köpenhamn 1,3 million 7

5 Tomorrow? Capacity increase on Värmlandsbanan and Mälarbanan New track Lilleström-Arvika 95 km (- 55 km) -1h30m New track Kristinehamn-Örebro 65 km (-50 km) -1h 11

6 About Stockholm-Oslo in the proposed NTP Between Stockholm and Oslo there is a great demand for better connections, especially with trains (but also by buses on substretches) to contribute, among other things, to reduced travel by air. Extensive business travel, weekly and daily commuting for work and study and leisure trips are examples of travel in the area. Significant shortcomings need to be handled during the planning period regarding supply, capacity and travel time. Suggested deficiencies: Stockholm to national border to Oslo, capacity problems and long journeys 14

7 Early Swedish planning (ÅVS) is finished 15

8 Planning continues Early planning (KVU) for cross border connection in Norway In-dept ÅVS to chose corridor for cross border connection in Sweden Discussions about starting localisation study for Nobelbanan with Swedish Traffic administration is ongoing right now. 16

9 Expected train travellers Trips every year 2040 without with 2.55 Effect of 2.55 Regional, national ~6,5 million ~8,7 million +34 % International ~ ~2,9 million +750 % 18

10 19

11 Impact on climate emissions (air) 21

12 Costs and implementation Part Model Cost Kungsängen-Kolbäck Procurement 200 million SEK Kolbäck-Valskog Procurement million SEK Valskog-Arboga Procurement 90 million SEK Arboga-Hovsta Procurement million SEK Hovsta-Örebro Procurement 80 million SEK Örebro-Kristinehamn Concession million SEK Kristinehamn-Karlstad Procurement million SEK Karlstad-Kil Procurement million SEK Kil-Arvika Procurement million SEK Arvika-Lilleström* Concession million SEK 54,6 billion SEK *of which 12 billion SEK in Norway 50% higher building costs in Norway would mean 6 billion SEK? 26

13 Which path is possible? Government funding? OPS/PPP model Concession model Insufficient funds Perceived more expensive 27

14 28

15 Response on RFI NCC SNC Lavalin, DBFOM Storebrand Nordic Pareto Securities, F SEB, F Ramböll, D Skanska, DBF MTR nordic, DFOM and train operator SJ, Train operator Jernhusen, Property KPMG, Project support Infranode, F Europe Meridiam, F OHL, DBF Gülermak, DBF Acciona, DBF TSO, DB Engie, DBM of installations Deutsche Bahn, DB Iridium-Dragados, DBFOM CMC di Ravena, DBF Alstom, DBFM and trains World China Railway SIYUAN Ranken Railway Ltd GS E&C Linked Borealis, F Stadler, trains FS-links, hyperloop Design, Build, Finance Operate line, Maintain 31

16 Increases capacity (7 billion SEK) Important for regional traffic Opens interregional market (14 billion SEK) Important for end point Reduces travel time by almost 1.5 hours and increases capacity (18-24 billion SEK) Increases capacity (15 billion SEK) 32

17 Business Case Green field Concession Private stakeholders and public subsidies Synchronized planning and building Capacity all the way Oslo to Stockholm. Open access Brown field Procurement Governments responsibility 35

18 KTH Ramböll SJ MTR Alstom Revenue model WTP Legal Finance EIB Project Oslo-Sthlm 2.55 Organisation Planning Sweco Finance model CAPEX Private: Pareto SEB Meridiam Infranode EIB Public: Kommuninv. Riksgälden Green Bonds Implementation model 38

19 Business case - benefits What is the consumers willing to pay for reduced travel time? What cost savings and profits can an operator credit? What land value increases can be credited to the project? What regional financing is possible? What financing can cargo traffic provide What is the government prepared to guarantee and provide? What benefits can be obtained by shorter building time. 39

20 Prices today (lowest cost ticket) Direct flights SAS 15 direct flights a day Tomorrow (OS255) SEK 850 to average Next week (KTH) SEK 960 to average Norwegian 7 direct flights a day SEK 619 to 969 average 788 SEK 398 to 919 average 498 SJ 4 trains a day SEK 385 to 855 average 737 SEK 207 to 721 average 463 Average SEK SEK 643 SEK 600 Arlanda express SEK 280 (Bus SEK 99) SEK 280 (Bus SEK 99) - Flytoget SEK 190 (NOK 180) SEK 190 (NOK 180) - Total SEK SEK SEK 600 Turnover of 1.1M trips SEK 1 859M SEK 707M SEK 660M SEK 1270M 40

21 Jonas Karlsson - CEO jonas.karlsson@oslo-sthlm.se Klostergatan 23 SE Örebro 53