EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast September 2014

Transcription

1 Network Manager nominated by the European Commission EUROCONTROL EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast September 2014 Flight Movements and Service Units

2 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast Update: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report presents the September 2014 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight and service units forecast. This update uses the most-recent available traffic statistics and economic forecasts, and more up-to-date information in terms of traffic trends and recent air-industry related events. The forecast IFR Movements Over the summer months, the growing number of passengers at airports finally spilled over into increasing number of flights in the busiest States and notably in Southern Europe. In parallel, recent events in Eastern Europe (airspace unavailability over Eastern Ukraine) have significantly changed the routing patterns in that region. This forecast assumes 1 no return to normal routing will happen by the end of the 7-year horizon (2020). That being said, there is a high probability for traffic to be restored through Eastern Ukraine before 2020, which would result in significant variations in the forecast results, especially over the southern airspace (see Section 4.4). Moreover, the forecast does not include the proposed significant changes in unit rates (see Section 4.5). The flight forecasts for 2014 of the busiest European States (Spain, Italy, Germany, France and UK) have been revised upwards compared to the February publication reflecting the recent sustained growth rates over the Summer but also reflecting expectations of weaker Winter 14/15 growth (compared to last Winter). The 2015 flight forecast growth rates in these States will level off between 2% and 3% on average. In Eastern and Southern Europe, local events (airspace/route unavailability over Eastern Ukraine, Libya and Near-East) have significantly changed the forecasts for many States: Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Malta to quote a few. At European level, the flight forecast is for a growth of 1.8% (±0.3 pp) in 2014 and 2.4% (±1.6 pp) for By 2020, the forecast anticipates 11.2 million IFR movements (± 0.9 million) in Europe, 19% more than in From 2016, growth returns to more stable rates of 3% but airport capacity will increasingly constrain growth in Europe in 2017 and The last two years of the forecast will see flight growth rates averaging at around 3% again as additional capacity is brought in Turkey. For the whole period, flight growth averages 2.5% (±1.4 pp) per year in the base scenario. Over the whole of Europe and the whole 7 years, there is a little change from the last two forecasts: the 2008 peak of traffic of 10.1 million flights is forecasted to be reached again in 2016, an 8-year hiatus in growth. 1 Assumptions in this document are purely for forecasting purposes and do not represent any policy of the Agency. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR

3 Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08 2 ). ESRA / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 IFR Flight Movements (Thousands) Annual Growth (compared to previous year unless otherwise mentioned) H.... 9,648 10,013 10,436 10,812 11,196 11,604 12, % -0.5% 3.8% B 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,447 9,622 9,852 10,131 10,366 10,600 10,900 11, % -0.6% 2.5% L.... 9,595 9,665 9,761 9,847 9,967 10,100 10, % -0.6% 1.0% H % 3.8% 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% -0.5% 3.8% B 0.8% 3.1% -2.4% -1.1% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% -0.6% 2.5% L % 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% -0.6% 1.0% Figure 2. Average annual flight growth per State, with no restoration of Eastern Ukraine overflights. Total En-route Service Units In 2014, total en-route service units are forecasted to end significantly higher than expected in the forecast published in February The cause of this is threefold: firstly, the upwards revision of the flight forecast as a result of the stronger than expected traffic in the busiest States and notably in Southern Europe; secondly, the continuing increasing trend in weights and; finally, the unavailability of airspace over Ukraine. The latter adds a substantial level of flights crossing over the CRCO11 states instead of Ukraine. From 2015 and the following years, the higher growth rate is faded out and years 2015 to 2020 of this forecast fall within the high-low forecast range published in February The average annual growth rate of the second Reference Period (RP2: ) for the States participating in the Performance Scheme remains at the level of the February 2014 publication. In 2014, million service units (TSU) are forecasted for the CRCO11 area. This is 5.7% more than in 2013, a revision up by 2.1 percentage points compared to the previous forecast. 2 ESRA08 is a large, fixed region covering most of Europe. See Annex A for a definition. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 2

4 Total en-route service units (Millions) This acceleration of growth compared to the February 2014 forecast slows after The TSU are expected to be higher by around 4.5 million in 2020 than previously forecasted, reaching in total million in 2020 for EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11). For those States participating in the Performance Scheme, the average annual growth during the second reference period (2019 versus a baseline year of 2014) is 2.9% (±1.5 pp), in line with the 2.8% per year from the February 2014 forecast. Figure 3. Summary of total en-route service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO11 3 ) and Performance Scheme area (RP1Region 3 and RP2Region 3 ) / 2013 Total Growth CRCO11 3 B % 2.1% 3.4% H % 2.3% 4.8% L % 2.0% 1.7% RP1Region 3 B % 1.5% 2.9% H % 1.7% 4.3% L % 1.4% 1.3% RP2Region 3 B % 1.5% 2.9% H % 1.7% 4.3% L % 1.4% 1.3% Total en-route service units (Growth) / 2013 Total Growth H % 5.6% 5.4% 4.4% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.9% 2.3% 4.8% CRCO11 3 B 3.5% 5.0% -1.3% 2.1% 5.7% 3.9% 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 2.1% 3.4% L % 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% RP1Region 3 H % 5.1% 4.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 1.7% 4.3% B 2.6% 4.5% -1.5% 1.6% 4.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 1.5% 2.9% L % 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% H % 5.1% 4.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 1.7% 4.3% RP2Region 3 B 2.7% 4.6% -1.4% 1.6% 4.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 1.5% 2.9% L % 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% RP1 2014/ 2011 RP1 2014/ 2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 RP2 2019/ 2014 Figure 4. Average annual en-route service unit growth per State. 3 For definitions of CRCO11, RP1Region and RP2Region, see Annex A. RP1Region was called PScheme in previous reports. RP2Region refers to the 28 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 3

5 Terminal Navigation Service Units As for the flights and en-route service units forecast, this forecast is driven by a weak economic recovery in Europe. In total, over the whole Terminal Charging Zones within the Performance Scheme area (RP2Region 4 ), the forecast growth should be at 2.7% (±1.5 pp) in 2015, the same value as the annual average growth () for the whole second reference period (RP2). It is above the forecast for flights, which shows an of 2.2% for RP2 in EU28 (all flows). By 2020, after the end of the reference period, 8.5 million TNSU are expected. The low scenario, however, is for just 7.8 million TNSU in 2020 which is hardly above the peak value measured in 2008 (7.7 million TNSU). Figure 5. Summary of total Terminal Navigation Service Units forecast for the second Performance Scheme States (RP2Region). RP2 Region RP1 2014/ 2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 TNSU Total (Millions) TNSU Annual Growth (%) High % 4.0% Base % 2.7% Low % 1.1% High % 4.0% 4.6% 3.6% 4.2% 3.8% 3.9% -0.4% 4.0% Base. 8.6% -1.9% -0.2% 0.3% 5 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% -0.4% 2.7% Low % 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% -0.5% 1.1% Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g., reduced capacity for this Winter and next Summer) and upside risks (e.g., current high load factors might not be able to absorb the passenger demand when traffic begins to grow again). These are discussed in Section 6. The EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast will be next updated in February 2015, through the improved process aiming at opening the forecast preparation phase to a wide audience (inside and outside EUROCONTROL) and to using a richer set of inputs. 4 RP2Region is defined by 36 Terminal Charging Zones covering 30 States in the second period of the Performance Scheme (RP2). Details can be found in Annex A. 5 Due to changes in charging zones, this is not like-for-like growth. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 4

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7 DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS TITLE 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast Update: Reference Number: 14/09/11-53 Document Identifier Edition Number: STATFOR Doc542 Edition Date: 26/09/2014 Keywords STATFOR Air Traffic Forecast Medium-Term Movements Flight Trends Traffic Flow Service Units Short-term Terminal En-route Contact Person(s) Contact Unit DE BONDT An; LELEU Claire NMD/PFR/FNI/STATFOR Publications DG/COM DOCUMENT APPROVAL The following table identifies all management authorities who have successively approved the present issue of this document The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and to the extent justified by the noncommercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. The use of the document is at the user s sole risk and responsibility. EUROCONTROL expressly disclaims any and all warranties with respect to any content within the document, express or implied. The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 6

8 DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present document. Version Date Reason for Change Sections affected v0.1 01/09/2014 Skeleton draft to present initial inputs. All v0.2 25/09/2014 Draft for internal review. All v1.0 26/09/2014 Final version. All EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 7

9 Contents 1. Introduction Context Forecast Method Flight and service units trends in IFR Movements En-route Service Units Forecast Inputs and Assumptions Economic growth Economic forecast for Europe Details per state Events and Trends Growth in IFR flights to Short-term outlook ( ) Medium-term outlook (up to 2020) Comparison with previous forecast What-if? restoration of pre-ukraine closure routings What-if? Increase of Unit Rates in Germany Service unit growth to En-route Service units (TSU) What-if? restoration of pre-ukraine closure routings Terminal Navigation Service units (TNSU) Risk to the forecast growth Glossary A. Traffic Region Definitions B. Summary of forecast for ESRA C. Seven-year flight forecast per state (IFR movements) D. Seven-year flight forecast per state (Growth) E. Two-year en-route service unit forecast by State F. Seven-year en-route service units forecast per State G. Seven-year en-route growth in service units forecast per State H. Terminal Navigation Service Unit Forecast I. References EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 8

10 Figures Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08) Figure 2. Average annual flight growth per State, with no restoration of Eastern Ukraine overflights Figure 3. Summary of total en-route service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO11) and Performance Scheme area (RP1Region 3 and RP2Region 3 ) Figure 4. Average annual en-route service unit growth per State Figure 5. Summary of total Terminal Navigation Service Units forecast for the second Performance Scheme States (RP2Region) Figure 6. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast Figure number of flights is 1.9% above Figure 8. Re-routings on North-West Europe to/from Middle-East or Asia/Pacific flow Figure 9. Re-routings on Egypt to/from Russia Figure 10. Turkey remains the main contributor (excluding overflights) on the European network Figure 11. Russia is the non-european destination adding most flights Figure 12. European load factors reached record highs since 2013 (Source: AEA) Figure 13. Low-Cost is the only segment which has grown consistently Figure 14. In 2014, trend in ticket price changes (air travel) in Europe declined at around 1% higher than the year before, on a 12-month trailing average Figure 15. Fuel prices remained high but stable in Figure 16. For the main flows in the ESRA08, the biggest declines have been for smaller aircraft Figure 17. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area from January 2011 to July Figure 18. EU GDP forecast remained unchanged across the horizon since the OE January 2014 revision Figure 19. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone Figure 20. GDP growth change per State in 2014 between this forecast (MTF14b) and the previous one (MTF14) Figure 21. GDP growth cumulative change per State by 2020 between this forecast (MTF14b) and the previous one (MTF14) Figure 22. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone Figure 23. GDP Growth by Traffic Region Figure 24. Summary of the forecast for Europe Figure 25. Flight forecast details for Figure 26. Flight forecast details for Figure 27. Average Annual Growth of Flights per State, 2020 v Figure 28. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2020 v 2013) Figure 29. Average Annual Growth in Flights per FAB, 2020 v Figure 30. For total Europe, current forecast is aligned with previous forecast (dated February 2014), with narrower short-term uncertainty Figure 31. Forecast revision for 2020 per State (comparison February: MTF14 vs September 2014: MTF14b forecasts) Figure 32. Total change in percentage per State after full restoration to flows pre-russia-ukraine crisis (only States within the zone of interest) Figure 33. Total change in daily flights per State after full restoration to flows pre-russia-ukraine crisis (only States within the zone of interest) Figure 34. Differences in route length and number of flights for Germany Figure 35. Typical AP2 avoiding/flying shorter routes over Germany Figure 36. Comparison of the forecast between the current TSU forecast and February 2013 for CRCO11 Area Figure 37. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe Figure 38. Average annual growth of service units between 2013 and Figure 39 Total change in Service Units in percentage per State after full restoration to flows pre-russia-ukraine crisis (only States within the zone of interest) Figure 40. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2Region area as defined Figure 41. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area Figure 42. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August Figure 43. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics Figure 44. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission (STATFOR update: January 2014). Source: EUROCONTROL PRU Figure 45. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP Figure 46. Growth in Europe (ESRA08) Figure 47. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ESRA08) Figure 48. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ESRA Figure 49. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State Figure 50. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State Figure 51. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units Figure 52. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units Figure 53. Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands) per State Figure 54. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 9

11 Figure 55. Exponents for Weight Coefficient and Number of Airport used in TNSU forecast for RP1 and RP Figure 56. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands) per Terminal Charging Zone Figure 57. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per Terminal Charging Zone EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 10

12 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Context This document presents an update of the 7-year forecast published by EUROCONTROL in February this year (Ref. 1). This forecast update is produced every year, in particular to allow the capacity-planning process to use the most up-to-date information. Hence, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) refreshes mid-year the main inputs to the forecast in addition to the full revision for the production of the 7-year forecast published each February. The forecast describes annual number of IFR flight movements, annual number of total en-route service units and annual number of terminal navigation service units up to For this update, three sets of the inputs have been revised: the assumptions on economic growth have been updated using economic forecasts available in mid-august; the traffic (IFR movements and service units) baseline has been re-aligned to take into account annual traffic to the end of July; adjustments and assumptions have been refreshed for better reflecting the effect of the different traffic disruptions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine crisis). For all other inputs and assumptions, see the description in Section 3 of Ref. 1. The forecast method is similar to the one used in the EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast published in February An overview of the forecast method is given in the Section 1.2, and more details on the forecast method are given in Ref. 3. This document contains a presentation of the latest traffic trends (Section 2), a presentation of the forecast inputs and assumptions (Section 3). The flights (Section 4) and Service Units (Section 5) forecasts to 2020 are then discussed, including two what-if? analyses to assess the impact of 1) a potential restoration of the routes over Eastern Ukraine and 2) a potential increase of unit rates in Germany in Section 6 indicates the main risks surrounding the forecast. A presentation of the geographical definitions can be found in Annex A. Forecast details for Europe as a whole are presented in Annex B. Annual total forecasts per States for IFR flights, en-route service units and terminal navigation service units can be found in Annexes C to H. The IFR flights forecasts per State (with details per flows) are provided via the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (Ref. 2). This 7-year IFR movements and service units forecast replaces the publication dated February 2014 (Ref. 1). The next 7-year outlook, for , will be published in February 2015, following an extended review cycle, as for the February 2014 forecast. 1.2 Forecast Method For the new forecast process, we have produced a completely revised set of documentation on the forecast methods (Ref. 3). This documentation describes the methods at a number of levels of detail, from a two-page summary, to a function-by-function reference. For convenience of readers, the summary is reproduced in this section. EUROCONTROL/STATFOR provides impartial air traffic forecasts, market analyses and statistics to the ATM community in the widest sense, to improve understanding of current and future trends, to enable better-informed decision making and thus to improve network performance. The STATFOR forecast has been serving European ATM since the 1970s. It is the only air traffic forecast covering Europe. STATFOR publishes a forecast of IFR flights and both en-route and terminal service units for the next seven years in Europe. The main forecast update is published in February each year. Our focus is on the traffic forecast for States or larger regions. This influences the modelling choices made in the forecasting process. Other EUROCONTROL units use this high level forecast to drill down to the level of airports, control centres, sectors etc. The number of flights depends on the interaction of supply and demand: an airline operates a flight between an airport A and an airport B because it has customers who pay to travel or ship goods from A to B. Supply and demand are each influenced by a large number of factors like economy, regulation, demographics, business development, oil prices, high-speed rail. When forecasting, we use data that describe these factors, and data more directly about actual and future supply (past flights, and future schedules). Some data are more relevant to the short-term EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 11

13 horizon (e.g., airline schedules) while others are used in the medium-term horizon (e.g., demographics). Probably the three most influential inputs to the forecast are: Economic growth forecasts obtained from external specialists, and which in recent years have been very variable; growth has slowed, but there is nothing in our data to show that flight growth has decoupled from economic growth; Regulation, e.g., rules on visas, open skies, airport funding, aviation taxes; Overflight patterns since, for the majority of States, most of their flights are overflights. A crisis such as that in Syria can easily change the number of flights by 10% or more in a number of States due to re-routing, even if the number of flights on the network as a whole is little changed (see section 4.4 for more on re-routing effects.) Figure 6. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast Annual forecast based on economic, omic, transport and other trends Passengers Adjusted for the effects fe of: Emissions Network Trading Scheme Change All-Cargo Business Aviation Military Small airport-pairs High-speed Train Low-cost Market share Population Initial Annual Forecast 7 years En-Route Service Unit Forecast Monthly forecast based on Trends, economics and plans Zone-pair Schedule recastability State-flow Monthly Tren forecast Up to 25 month Overfligh trends Overflight choices & trends Constrained airport-pair forecast Overflight choices Final flight forecast Overflight forecast Service unit trend Total Service Units Weightdistance Chargeable Service Units Terminal Service Unit Forecast Weight Total Service Units Overall, the components of the forecast can be grouped into five elements as in Figure 6: An initial annual forecast for the next seven years based on economic, transport and other trends; A monthly forecast based on trends, economics and airlines plans; These are merged, and constrained by airport capacities to give the constrained forecast; The final step of the flight forecast is to calculate how many flights are generated in each State, using both routings through airspace observed in the historical data and recent trends. The number of service units in a charging zone depends on the number of flights, the weight of aircraft and, in the en route case, the distance flown. The two service unit forecasts therefore take the flight forecast as an input and combine this with time series forecasts of weight and distance as needed. This gives total service units, from which future chargeable service units are estimated using the ratio of chargeable/total from the previous calendar year. We use a highly-automated and structured process to produce traffic forecasts and because of the variety of factors and inputs, different forecasting techniques are used: traditional time series methods to extrapolate historical patterns, econometric analyses to take into account how economic, social and operational conditions have an effect on the development of traffic, scenario-based inputs to describe the future (what Europe will be in 10 years time?) and specific data-driven models (e.g., high-speed rail development model). As for any forecast, the method EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 12

14 relies on historical data either for taking a snapshot of the most recent trends or longer history to calibrate the models. The future is always uncertain. We capture this uncertainty in the forecast through three forecast scenarios: low- and high-growth scenarios, with the most-likely base forecast in between. All three scenarios should be considered as part of the risk management of any decision based on the forecast. As requested by Stakeholders, we have re-calibrated some of the key relationships with economic growth for this forecast, including introducing more specific country-pair flow relationships where these make statistical sense. This re-calibration process is described in Ref. 4, which has been distributed to the STATFOR User Group. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 13

15 2. FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2014 Since the beginning of 2014, European traffic has been marked by stronger-than-expected growth in main busiest States and in Southern Europe (over the summer months). Lowcost segment has mainly been driving growth. Some major events have affected the traffic patterns over Europe and more specifically the overflight flows in Eastern Europe. 2.1 IFR Movements Since the beginning of 2014 (January-July), European traffic remained on average 1.9% above the 2013 traffic levels (compared to same period, see Figure 7). Such rates of growth have not been seen since 2008, except in 2011 with the rebound from the volcanic ash cloud. Part of this growth can be explained by the quick growth in some States since the beginning of the Summer schedules (April 2014): Canary Islands (+10.4% from April to July 2014 compared to same period in 2013), Spain (+4.8%), Lisbon FIR (+9.2%) and Greece (+7.4%). The growth in April 2014 was limited (0.9%) compared to other months due to industrial action and a late Easter period (in April this year). Figure number of flights is 1.9% above The overflight flows have been affected by re-routings due to major events. First, the KFOR (Kosovo) sector re-opening since April 2014 changed overflight routings along the South-East axis. Albania lost overflights (-2.3% since April 2014 versus same period in 2013) while FYROM (+31.5%), Bosnia-Herzegovina (+13.8%) and Serbia & Montenegro (+4.2%) gained. Second, the traffic losses in Egypt had an influence across Europe and especially on the South- East axis overflights. However, these losses were partly compensated for by shifts of tourist flows to the Canary Islands (see above). Third, due to the Libyan airspace closure in August 2014, overflight flows in Malta were highly affected, experiencing a decrease of 32% (compared to August 2013). Last but not least, the closure of the Crimean airspace (Simferopol) since April 2014 and the closure of the airspace at the Eastern border of Ukraine (Dnepropetrovsk) following the Boeing 777 MH17 accident have generated many re-routing in that region. The flows mostly impacted by the re-routing avoiding totally or partially Ukraine are the following: North-West Europe to Middle-East or Asia/Pacific: Re-routings affecting negatively Ukraine, Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia and positively Bulgaria and Turkey (see Figure 8); Russia to Egypt: Re-routings affecting negatively Ukraine, Armenia and Azerbaijan and positively Turkey and Cyprus (see Figure 9). From April to July 2014, the total number of flights in Ukraine decreased by 31% (compared to same period last year). The overflight flows of the neighbouring States were also highly affected either positively (amongst others Bulgaria and Romania with respectively +28% and +22% growth EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 14

16 of overflights compared to same period in 2013) or negatively (Moldova -30%) based on the reroutings. Figure 8. Re-routings on North-West Europe to/from Middle-East or Asia/Pacific flow. Traffic from 17 August 2013 Traffic from 16 August 2014 Figure 9. Re-routings on Egypt to/from Russia. Traffic from 17 August 2013 Traffic from 16 August 2014 Figure 10 shows local traffic (i.e. excluding overflights) changes for January-July 2014 period. Turkey remained the main contributor, adding more than 230 daily flights (excluding overflights) with an +11% growth. The United Kingdom moved to the second-place with 94 flights per day (excluding overflights) thanks to arrivals and departures flows (though internals decreased by 4.3%). Greece was third contributor with 10% growth thanks to higher traffic demand for the Greek islands. Spain and Italy shifted from the right- to the left-side of Figure 10 adding respectively 62 and 30 daily flights (excluding overflights). On the right-side of Figure 10, Ukraine was the country that removed the most flights from the network in 2014 so far due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis generating a loss of about 90 daily flights on the European network. France also removed more than 40 flights a day, mainly due to the weakness of its internal traffic and the pressure during the winter period. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 15

17 Figure 10. Turkey remains the main contributor (excluding overflights) on the European network. Outside Europe, Russia was still the number one destination from Europe in terms of number of flights: 445 departures per day on average for the period January-July 2014 (see Figure 11). This situation remained despite the major loss of flights since April 2014 (about 25 departures per day in July 2014) due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This flow still represents 16% of all departures from ESRA08 to countries outside Europe despite the recent negative trend (-2.9% from April to July 2014 compared to same period in 2013) due to the slowing down of the Russian economy and the impact of tensions between Russia and the European Union due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis (EU and U.S. have imposed sanctions to which Moscow has retaliated with a ban on most Western food imports). Figure 11. Russia is the non-european destination adding most flights. The United States also remained the second destination from Europe adding traffic to the network with on average 405 departures per day since January 2014 (see Figure 11). Departures from Europe to the United States increased by 3.2% on average since the beginning of the year (compared same period in 2013). Last year (same period) this flow was experiencing a decrease of 2.3% (compared to 2012). Egypt was also in the top 7 destinations from Europe (on average 93 flights per day since January 2014) despite the remaining pressure on tourist traffic due to the local instability. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 16

18 Major European carriers published a 22% increase in operating profits during the second quarter of 2014 (versus the same quarter in 2013, see Ref. 5). The load factors of flag carriers remained record-breaking on Europe (cross-border) flows in 2014 (see Figure 12). Figure 12. European load factors reached record highs since 2013 (Source: AEA) Figure 13 shows the traffic development per market segment. Low-cost was the only segment with sustained growth since April Since the beginning of 2014, the market share of the lowcost segment represented approximately 26% (28% during summer months) of the total number of flights. This segment grew at an average rate of 6.5% in terms of number of flights. The traditional scheduled segment, representing more than 50% of the total market, grew on average by 0.7% since January The all-cargo segment shifted into slight growth recently compared to 2013 (less than 0.5%). Figure 13. Low-Cost is the only segment which has grown consistently Since September 2013, airline ticket price growth in Europe slowed down even if ticket prices are still increasing in real terms (Figure 14). Ticket price inflation is now at an average level of 1% since the beginning of 2014 compared to the record level of 5% reached in early 2012 (responding to the surge in oil prices) and the level of 3% at the beginning of The peak in April 2014 is mostly driven by the movement of Easter. Figure 14. In 2014, trend in ticket price changes (air travel) in Europe declined at around 1% higher than the year before, on a 12-month trailing average. Note that, on this graph, ticket prices are deflated by overall consumer prices. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 17

19 As shown in Figure 15, oil prices remained fairly stable around 80 per barrel in the course of Fuel prices have also been stable but high at an average of 700 per tonne since the beginning of Figure 15. Fuel prices remained high but stable in From January to August 2014, total flights by smaller aircraft (below 100 seats) in Europe have declined (compared to the same period in 2013) for all traffic and local traffic flows. Conversely, flights by larger short-haul aircraft ( seaters) have increased for the same flows (see Figure 16); this aligns with the observation that the low-cost segment has been growing the quickest. For overflight traffic, big growth has been observed in the small to medium aircraft categories (between 50 and 300 seats) and also for larger long-haul aircraft (more than 300 seats). EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 18

20 Figure 16. For the main flows in the ESRA08, the biggest declines have been for smaller aircraft En-route Service Units During the first seven months of 2014, the total service units (TSU) for the CRCO11 region increased by 4.9% from 70.8 million in the year-ago period to 74.3 million. With an increase of 4.9%, the growth of TSU was much greater than that of the flights which grew by 1.9% in the ESRA08 region. Bearing in mind that Ukraine is not a member state of the CRCO11 region; re-routings in the South-East axis further to the closure of the Eastern Ukraine airspace have led to variations in TSU growth for neighbouring CRCO11 states. As a result, TSU for Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey increased by 34%, 19% and 18% respectively during the period April-July At the other end of the scale, TSU for Moldova and Georgia decreased by 45% and 13% respectively on the same period in Total flights in Ukraine slumped 31% during April-July 2014, in line with the state s TSU which were down 35% on the year-ago period. Figure 17. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area from January 2011 to July Flows are: I: Internal, AD: Arrivals and Departures from the zone, O: Overflights, T: Total, TADI: Total excluding overflights. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 19

21 3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS The forecast is driven by past trends and by scenario assumptions for the future. Since February, the economic forecast remained mainly unchanged at European level. However, the upwards trend in flight growth for busiest States recorded since February is influencing the forecast. Moreover, airspace unavailability over Ukraine, Libya, and Near- East led to re-routings changing the pattern of Eastern Europe flight growth. Sections 3.1 and 3.2 describe how they influence the forecast. The forecast is derived from historical traffic data and a set of scenario assumptions. All the input assumptions made in the February forecast (e.g., load factors evolution, demographics, highspeed rail network development etc see Ref. 1) have been reused, except for the economic growth forecast and the specific events and traffic trends scenarios. As usual, there are three scenarios presented in this forecast. The Base scenario represents the most-likely development of the traffic and is an intermediate point between a Low scenario (weak growth) and a High scenario (strong growth). 3.1 Economic growth Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) are provided by the Oxford Economics Ltd (OE) forecast of August 2014 for most of the States and regions. For some States, when recommended by stakeholders, other GDP forecasts are used. In particular: official government forecasts have been used for Germany (April 2014) and UK (January 2014) and National Institute of Economic Research forecast for Sweden (December 2013). The high and low growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets 7 from these forecasts. ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR EUROPE Figure 18 illustrates how the economic forecast for EU countries remained almost the same in the OE August release (indicated as MTF14b) as for the February forecast (MTF14). This is in line with previous revisions of the EU economic forecasts for the 7-year horizon ( ) by OE which has been reasonably stable since the OE October 2012 update. Figure 18. EU GDP forecast remained unchanged across the horizon since the OE January 2014 revision. DETAILS PER STATE The GDP forecasts are shown for all forecasted states in Figure 19 as well as for certain non- European states in Figure 22. For all other States, the economic growth of the traffic region is used (Figure 23). Traffic regions are listed in Figure 42 (Annex A). 7 +1%, -1% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -1.5% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.5% for late years and big States, +0.8%, -0.8% for late years and small States. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 20

22 Figure 19. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone Source: from Oxford Economics Ltd (Aug2014) or other official forecasts (e.g., Government) Comments: Real GDP Growth in Euro. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 03/09/2014 Actual Base Albania 3.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1.9% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% Armenia 4.7% 7.2% 3.5% 3.6% 4.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0% 4.7% Austria 2.9% 0.7% 0.4% 1.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% Azerbaijan 0.1% 2.2% 5.8% 2.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% Belarus 5.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 1.6% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% Belgium/Luxembourg 1.8% -0.1% 0.2% 1.0% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% Bosnia-Herzegovina 1.3% -1.2% 1.6% 0.6% 3.5% 3.7% 4.0% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% Bulgaria 2.0% 0.6% 0.7% 1.6% 2.3% 3.0% 3.8% 4.2% 4.3% 3.5% Canary Islands 0.1% -1.6% -1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% Croatia -0.3% -2.2% -0.7% -0.1% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% Cyprus 0.4% -2.4% -5.4% -3.9% 0.2% 0.9% 1.0% 1.8% 2.5% 3.8% Czech Republic 1.8% -0.9% -0.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% Denmark 1.1% -0.4% 0.4% 1.5% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% Estonia 9.6% 3.9% 0.8% 1.6% 3.2% 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% FYROM 3.0% -0.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.4% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% Finland 2.6% -1.5% -1.2% 0.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% France 2.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% Georgia 7.1% 6.2% 3.2% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.4% 5.1% 4.9% 4.4% Germany 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 1.8% 2.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% Greece -7.1% -7.0% -3.9% -0.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% Hungary 1.6% -1.7% 1.2% 3.0% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% Iceland 2.7% 1.5% 3.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Ireland 2.8% -0.3% 0.2% 2.8% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% Italy 0.6% -2.4% -1.8% -0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.1% Latvia 5.3% 5.2% 4.0% 3.2% 4.8% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.0% Lisbon FIR -1.3% -3.2% -1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% Lithuania 6.0% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 4.9% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0% 4.6% 3.2% Malta 1.5% 0.8% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% Moldova 6.4% -0.8% 6.0% 5.2% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% Morocco 5.0% 2.7% 4.4% 3.6% 4.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.4% 5.3% Netherlands 1.8% -1.6% -0.7% 0.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% Norway 1.1% 2.8% 0.7% 1.4% 1.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% Poland 4.5% 2.1% 1.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.2% 2.7% Romania 2.2% 0.6% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% Santa Maria FIR -1.3% -3.2% -1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% Serbia&Montenegro 1.6% -1.7% 2.5% 0.9% 2.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% Slovakia 3.0% 1.8% 0.9% 2.5% 3.3% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% Slovenia 1.0% -2.4% -0.9% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% Spain 0.1% -1.6% -1.2% 1.3% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% Sweden 2.9% 1.3% 1.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3% 1.9% 2.0% Switzerland 1.8% 1.0% 2.0% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% Turkey 8.8% 2.1% 4.0% 2.9% 3.3% 4.6% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.3% UK 1.1% 0.3% 1.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% Ukraine 5.2% 0.2% 0.1% -5.4% 0.5% 3.6% 5.3% 5.3% 4.9% 4.1% ESRA % -0.1% 0.4% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Figure 20 shows a state by state comparison of the change in GDP growth between the current and the previous forecast for More than half of the states had stable forecasts revision (less than 0.5% change). Slight changes were observed among States with most traffic in Europe: Italy 8 Oxford Economics Forecast dated August GDP values for Germany, UK and Sweden different than those used at State level. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 21

23 has been revised downwards to -0.2%; Germany (to 1.8%) and Spain (to 1.3%) upwards; UK and France GDP forecasts have remained unchanged (2.7% and 0.6%, respectively). As a direct consequence of the ongoing crisis, Ukraine has seen its GDP forecast revised downwards. It is important to note that the OE GDP forecast has been used for Ukraine and not the International Monetary Fund (IMF) one as in the February 2014 forecast. IMF did not publish the GDP forecast for Ukraine in its most recent Economic Outlook Report due to uncertainty on the outcome of the conflict on Eastern Ukraine. Figure 20. GDP growth change per State in 2014 between this forecast (MTF14b) and the previous one (MTF14). Looking at the total of the seven years in terms of GDP growth changes, the results are an extension of 2014 revisions, exception being Ukraine (Figure 21). Here, the OE forecast has a more optimistic view for the next seven years than that of IMF, used in the February forecast. Figure 21. GDP growth cumulative change per State by 2020 between this forecast (MTF14b) and the previous one (MTF14). EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 22

24 Figure 22. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone Source: from STATFOR records onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Aug14. Comments: Real GDP Growth in Euro. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 21/08/2014 Actual Base Brazil 2.7% 1.0% 2.5% 0.7% 1.4% 2.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% China 9.3% 7.7% 7.7% 7.4% 6.9% 6.6% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.1% India 7.7% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 5.1% 6.1% 6.6% 6.9% 6.9% 6.2% Israel 4.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 4.5% 4.8% 3.5% 3.4% South Africa 3.6% 2.5% 1.9% 1.2% 2.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% Figure 23. GDP Growth by Traffic Region Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Aug14 Comments: Real GDP Growth. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 21/08/2014 Actual Base Asia/Pacific 1.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% ESRA East 3.0% 0.6% 1.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% ESRA Mediterranean 1.1% -1.7% -0.8% 0.8% 1.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% ESRA North-West 2.2% 0.4% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% Mid-Atlantic 3.6% 3.4% 1.7% 2.5% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.1% Middle-East 5.8% 2.7% 2.7% 3.6% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9% North Atlantic 1.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% North-Africa -7.4% 9.1% 1.9% 1.5% 6.6% 6.6% 5.2% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% Other Europe 4.3% 3.4% 1.6% 0.4% 1.3% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 3.1% South-Atlantic 7.0% 3.1% 3.6% 0.6% 2.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.3% Southern Africa 4.7% 4.8% 5.2% 5.7% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.2% 3.2 Events and Trends The events and trends assumptions consist of adjustments to arrival, departure, internal, overflight traffic and also en-route service units. The effects considered are described in the remainder of this section. They are listed considering how long they have been introduced in the previous forecasts. EU accession: Croatia s accession in July 2013 has slightly boosted its air traffic thanks to air transport and market liberalization. The impact is factored in by an additional 3% growth as of July 2014, halving the following years. This 3% growth is a reduced effect compared to the previous cases (e.g., impact for State joining EU was a peak of +11% for Romania and Bulgaria in the February 2006 forecast). EURO2016: The European football cup to be held in France from 10 June to 10 July 2016 (9 sites) is likely to have a small impact on traffic in France. In accordance with estimates from the DGAC/France, STATFOR derived expected impact based on the EURO2008 and EURO2012 historical data. French Arrivals/Departures and Internal flows are expected to see 0.1% and 0.08% additional traffic respectively. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 23

25 Airspace unavailability Eastern Ukraine airspace: a scenario has been created to reflect the current situation in Ukraine (closure of routes in Simferopol FIR and area closed over Eastern Ukraine at the time of writing). Lacking any indications of when there might be a return to normality, we have made assumed there will be no restoration of pre-crisis traffic patterns ( normal routings). This means that the routing patterns observed in Eastern Europe since April 2014 have been used until the end of the forecast. In fact, we believe there is a strong probability of re-opening of the airspace before 2020, so calculations of the effects of eventual restoration are presented in Sections 4.4 and 5.2. Libyan airspace: as for Ukraine, and lacking a basis for estimating the duration of the airspace unavailability over Libya, no restoration to pre-closure traffic patterns over Southern Europe has been assumed. Other adjustments Some other adjustments have been made, based on best information about schedules patterns for the next 12 months. The strategies of European carriers for the coming Winter vary: while some flag carriers will reduce capacity (e.g., Lufthansa to remove 8 aircraft, IAG to decrease capacity by 3% vs same period last year), low-cost carriers have been filling the gaps and adding capacity to the network for the coming Winter (e.g., +8% for Ryanair and +6.4% for Easyjet announced in the news). An overall estimation of the Winter 14/15 capacity for Europe led to a 1%-1.5% flight growth overall (excluding overflights). As far as the Summer 2015 schedules are concerned, the lack of precise information at the time of writing made an overall estimation difficult. Winter 2014/15 growth: As a significant part of the flight demand to Egypt had been transferred to the Spanish Islands and Egypt traffic recovery is premature; so, arrival/departure flow from/to Canary Islands has been boosted by 2% this Winter. Summer 2015 growth: based on company reports for 2015, and together with the Summer 14 trends, additional traffic has been foreseen in Southern Europe next Summer (e.g., Italy A/D +2%, Lisbon FIR A/D +4%, Greece A/D +4%, I +2%, Turkey ADI +3%, Spain A/D +4%, Santa Maria A/D +5%). Not included No complete set of information coming from airline schedules 9 for this Winter 14/15 has been used in this forecast. Recent Winters have seen late downward revisions in the schedules, and we consider this to be a significant downside risk for the coming Winter, too. Unlike in the previous forecast: no adjustment has been made for Ukraine following the Open Skies agreement signed with the EU which is likely to enter into force in Summer 2015, no adjustment has been made to represent the impact of the KFOR Sector airspace reopening for civil traffic. Aircraft operators seem now (in September 2014) to have adopted the more efficient routings that were made available, no adjustment has been made on the flows to/from Egypt-related as the July 2014 number of flight is now at the same level as in July 2013 which is assumed to be a sign of recovery of traffic, just one year after the renewed civil unrest started (August 2013), no adjustment has been applied to the flows between Russian Federation and Southern Europe for the next seasons (in previous forecast, boosts for next Winter and Summer had been applied to reflect the dynamism of the flow) as the Russia-Ukraine crisis has a negative impact on them. The assumptions presented here have been constructed solely in support of the forecast and do not represent any political view of EUROCONTROL. 9 Airlines schedules from INNOVATA (September 2014). EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 24

26 4. GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2020 The new forecast is for 11.2 million IFR flight movements (±0.9 million) in Europe in 2020, 19% more than in The first year of the forecast expects a growth in traffic with 1.8% (±0.3 pp), an upwards revision on previous forecast as traffic has been growing at higherthan-expected rates since the beginning of the Summer (compared to the same period in 2013). These high-level figures, however, hide large local differences notably in the South- East axis. From 2015 onwards, European flight growth is expected to be back at around 2.7% per year. The 2008 peak of traffic of 10.1 million flights is forecasted to be reached again by 2016; an 8-year hiatus as already stated in the two previous flight forecast publications. Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to consider the low-to-high ranges. Figure 24. Summary of the forecast for Europe. ESRA / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 IFR Flight Movements (Thousands) Annual Growth (compared to previous year unless otherwise mentioned) H.... 9,648 10,013 10,436 10,812 11,196 11,604 12, % -0.5% 3.8% B 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,447 9,622 9,852 10,131 10,366 10,600 10,900 11, % -0.6% 2.5% L.... 9,595 9,665 9,761 9,847 9,967 10,100 10, % -0.6% 1.0% H % 3.8% 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% -0.5% 3.8% B 0.8% 3.1% -2.4% -1.1% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% -0.6% 2.5% L % 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% -0.6% 1.0% More detailed results are provided in Annexes B, C and D to support this overview. The forecast details per States for the 2-year horizon are shown in Figure 25 and Figure 26; and in Figure 27 for the 7-year horizon. 4.1 Short-term outlook ( ) Since the previous forecast published in February, higher-than-expected number of flights during Summer was observed. Moreover specific events have changed the traffic patterns hence the forecasts in most States along the South-East and South-West axes and we assume they continue to At European level, the flight forecasts have been revised upwards (+0.6pp) to a growth of 1.8%(±0.3 pp) for 2014 and downwards (-0.3pp) to a growth of 2.4% (±1.3 pp) for If the economic forecast has hardly changed for Europe (see Section 3.1), the local traffic 10 this Summer has been at or beyond the top end of the February forecast, especially in Southern Europe states (Greece, Turkey, Lisbon FIR, Canary Islands, Spain and Italy) but also in busiest states (e.g., UK, Belgium/Luxembourg). To these sustained traffic 10 growth trends for Europe, corresponding to 2% flight increase for 2014 so far (on same period in 2013), have been added the airlines' intentions for this Winter and the next Summer. As developed previously (see Section 2.1), the outlook for this Winter from schedules and company reports---is for a lower growth than the current year-to-date rates. On top of the recent and expected traffic trends, specific events (see Section 3.2) have changed traffic patterns since April 2014, especially the overflight traffic. Even if the net effect of the changes at European level is small, the re-routings over the South-East axis (Russia-Ukraine crisis and KFOR sector re-opening since April 2014) and over South-West axis (Libyan closure since August 2014) have influenced the future traffic growth in Southern Europe. 10 Total flights excluding overflights. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 25

27 South-West axis: For 2014, forecast for Spain and Lisbon FIR forecasts have been revised upwards due to higherthan-expected local traffic. Canary Islands and Azores forecasts have however been revised downwards as the previous shift in tourist flows from Egypt to Spanish/Portuguese Islands seems to tail off with recovery of traffic in Egypt. The 2015 flight forecast for all these States remained mostly unchanged compared to the February publication. Forecast for Malta has strongly been revised downwards in 2014 to -5.7% and 2015 to -1.2% as the closure of Libyan airspace resulted in overflight losses with respect to the North-South flows (e.g., North-West Europe to South Africa). South-East Axis: Since the February forecast, the KFOR sector has re-opened and most aircraft operators have now opted for the more efficient routes made available since April The changes came faster than previously 11 expected, leading to upwards revision of 2014 forecasts for Croatia, Greece, Slovenia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia&Montenegro. As far as the airspace unavailability over Eastern Ukraine is concerned, the vast majority of flows between North-West Europe and Middle-East/Asia-Pacific have been re-routed via more southerly routes. Forecasts for 2014 and 2015: Double-digit growth is expected in 2014 for Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Turkey, and rates ranging from 4% to 6% for 2015 (upwards revisions on February forecast), Relative stability (Azerbaijan) or modest growth (Georgia and Armenia) in 2014 (downwards revisions on February), Severe reductions in Ukraine (-32%, related to losses in all flows) and Moldova (-15%) in 2014, followed by no growth in Ukraine and an artificial rebound for Moldova (+11%) in 2015 (downwards revisions on February). North-West axis or Other Out of the busiest States, the forecast for Germany has been revised upwards (higher-thanexpected traffic, all flows considered) to 1.7% in 2014, although this does not include the effects of revised unit rates (see section 4.5). France and UK forecasts have also been revised upwards by 0.8 pp to 2.3% and 1.6% respectively. Forecast for Austria has been revised upwards to +3.5% for 2014, partly benefiting from the re-routed flights avoiding Eastern Ukraine. In 2015, North-West European States will see growth rates ranging from 2% to 3%, back to a relative stability of rates. Europe as a whole, 2014 forecast for Europe is now for a 1.8% (±0.3 pp) flight growth, see Figure 25, an upwards revision of 0.6 percentage points compared to the February forecast, 2015 forecast for Europe is now for a 2.4% (±1.6 pp) flight growth, see Figure 26, a slight downwards revision of 0.3 percentage point compared to the February forecast (balancing out part of the extra growth now expected in 2014). Traffic growth rates are expected be more homogeneous across North-West Europe. 11 In the February forecast, a gradual scenario over 7 months was developed. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 26

28 Figure 25. Flight forecast details for Figure 26. Flight forecast details for EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 27

29 4.2 Medium-term outlook (up to 2020) After 2015, traffic growth in Europe stabilises at around 2.6% increase per year, showing higher annual rates in 2016 and 2020 but these are due to the extra growth from the leap year effect. In fact, when comparing average daily traffic growth rates, the growth rate of 2.4%-2.6% per year in the horizon will slow down in 2018 (+2.3%) due to the lack of capacity in the European network because of the airport capacity constraints placed upon the European network. However, the new airport in Istanbul, to open in 2019 in this forecast will partially lift the constraints and growth rates will accelerate averaging at rates of 2.8% in the horizon (after removing the 2020 leap-year effect, see Figure 1 or Section 4). Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. capacity reductions in response to weaker demand) and upside risks (e.g. current high load factors might not be able to absorb the passenger demand when traffic begins to grow again). These are discussed in Section 6. By 2020, the high-growth scenario has 0.8 million more and low-growth scenario 1 million fewer flights than the base scenario. As Figure 27 shows, the growth is not uniform across Europe. While the growth (in percentage terms) is much weaker in the more mature markets of Western Europe, it is still the busiest States (France, Germany followed by Italy, Spain and UK) which will see the greatest number of extra flights per day (Figure 28). Turkey will both see the fastest growth rates (7.2% as average annual growth rate over the 7 years) and the highest number of extra flights per day (1,945 additional flights per day in 2020), being the biggest contributor to the growth in Europe. Figure 29 shows the corresponding Figure 27 at functional airspace block level (FAB). Danube FAB is expected to have the highest average annual growth rate (5.1%, ±2 pp) over the next seven years. FABEC, the busiest European FAB, UK-Ireland FAB and NEFAB will experience more limited average annual growth rates of around 2% by Annexes C and D give the details of forecast traffic and growth per State and areas (FAB, EU28 ). Figure 27. Average Annual Growth of Flights per State, 2020 v EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 28

30 Figure 28. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2020 v 2013). Figure 29. Average Annual Growth in Flights per FAB, 2020 v EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 29

31 4.3 Comparison with previous forecast Globally, the baseline forecast is in line with the February 2014 forecast (see Ref. 1), moreover, the uncertainty around high and low scenarios has been reduced in the first years. Figure 30 illustrates that the current forecast (MTF14b) for total Europe starts at slightly higher levels than the seven-year forecast released in February 2014 (MTF14, see Ref. 1). The first two years of the forecast show narrower low-to-high ranges because the uncertainty has now been reduced in the short-term. Figure 30. For total Europe, current forecast is aligned with previous forecast (dated February 2014), with narrower short-term uncertainty. Since the recent events affecting the traffic developments (mainly the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the Libyan Airspace closure, described in Section 3.2) are uneven across Europe, differences at State level are more profound. Figure 31 depicts the size of the revisions in the forecast for total traffic per State in The largest part of these revisions is due to events already in 2014 with effects carried forward into the later years due to the assumption of no end to these events prior to 2020 (though see Section 4.4 for our what-if exploration of the alternative, and probably more likely case of restoration). The biggest revisions on both sides (downwards for Ukraine, Moldova, Malta; upwards for Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary) are related to recent development in the overflight traffic and further illustrate the sensitivity of the forecast to changes in network and route choice. Figure 31. Forecast revision for 2020 per State (comparison February: MTF14 vs September 2014: MTF14b forecasts). EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 30

32 4.4 What-if? restoration of pre-ukraine closure routings We examined the effect of re-routings following the Russia-Ukraine crisis with a what-if? analysis. This showed a potential in 2020, following a return to normal routing, for some States to gain flights (Ukraine +38%, Moldova +17%, Azerbaijan +6%) while others lose flights (Bulgaria -18%, Romania -15%, Slovakia -10%, Hungary -8%). Even if we believe this restoration to have high probability, these changes are not built into the published forecast, but provided to support analysis of risk. The forecast is sensitive to network changes and to changes of choice of route through the network. This represents a risk which can be on the up-side for some states and conversely on the down-side for others. See section 6 for a broad discussion of risks, including re-routing. As shown in Section 2.1, routings on the network remain disrupted following the Russia-Ukraine crisis. In particular there are significant re-routings avoiding totally or partially Ukraine in the flow North-West Europe to Middle-East, North-West Europe to Asia/Pacific and Russia to Egypt. The main forecast assumes that these re-routings will remain at least until end of However we ran a what-if? analysis to estimate the effects of a potential re-opening of the airspace in 2015 (return to routing patterns observed over Ukraine prior to the Russia-Ukraine crisis). Our what-if? method uses the routing patterns across Europe of 2013 and apply them to route the flights through the network over the 7 years leaving the AP2 forecast unchanged. This section describes the results of that what-if? analysis focusing on the Eastern part of Europe. For total Europe (ESRA08), the date of the end of the Russia-Ukraine crisis has very limited impact on total traffic. Only the Arrival, Departure and Internal flows of Ukraine (very limited share of the total traffic in ESRA08) differ. The differences at State level are more profound since the overflight flows crossing Ukraine would return faster to normality in the what-if? analysis. As shown in Figure 32, Ukraine is estimated to see a 38% increase in flights in 2020 (more than 450 flights per day, see Figure 33) if flows returned to their pre-russia-ukraine crisis patterns as of Figure 32 shows the percentage difference in movements between the what-if? analysis and the published forecast for all States surrounding Ukraine. Figure 33 gives an indication of the difference in daily total number of flights. Figure 32. Total change in percentage per State after full restoration to flows pre-russia- Ukraine crisis (only States within the zone of interest). EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 31

33 Figure 33. Total change in daily flights per State after full restoration to flows pre-russia- Ukraine crisis (only States within the zone of interest). 4.5 What-if? Increase of Unit Rates in Germany We examined the effect of re-routings if the German unit rates were to increase by 30% in 2015 with a what-if? analysis. This showed a potential, when compared to 2014 unit rates, for Germany to see a reduction in its number of overflight as well as an overall decrease in distance flown. These changes are not built into the published forecast, but provided to support analysis of risk. National states unit rates for en-route charges for the next year are discussed at the Enlarged Committee each year at the June session and frozen at the November session. This year, Germany has introduced a proposal for a 30% increase in its unit rates for 2015 at the June session. Routings on the network are influenced by the route charges. The EUROCONTROL route charge is calculated by reference of three basic elements: aircraft weight factor, distance factor, unit rate of charge (for each Charging Zone). Keeping the weight factor constant and assuming the aircraft operators would opt for the minimum en-route cost routing option, we have assessed the influence of unit rates on the distance flown. This section focuses on answering a simple question: what-if the German rates were to increase by 30% in 2015 (vs 2014)? An ad-hoc simulation using the EUROCONTROL modelling tool NEST has been performed to compare the impact of the changes in unit rates in Germany. The analysis is based on one week of traffic (7 days between the 8 th of May and the 14 th of May 2014, AIRAC cycle 1405). Two scenarios have been simulated using the cheapest routing method in NEST: scenario 2014 UR using the 2014 unit rates for each state and scenario 2015 UR using the initial estimates for 2015 for each state (communicated during the 102 nd meeting of the Enlarged Committee). For all the simulations, the average cost of distance flown has been set to 9.4 as defined in the standard inputs for EUROCONTROL Cost Benefit Analyses 12. For each scenario, we have analysed the number of flights and the distance flown per flight within the German airspace over 7 days. Figure 34 shows the results of this analysis. These results are purely based on this theoretical cheapest routing option and do not prejudge of the strategy the airlines would put in place. 12 Edition number 6.0, dated September EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 32

34 The analysis shows that the proposed increase of the German unit rates next year would lead to: a 4% reduction in overflights (when compared to current unit rates) in Germany, a decrease of the average distance flown per overflight (-3.7%) for the flights still entering the German airspace, a 7.4% reduction in total distance flown (one week of traffic) for overflights reflecting both the losses in number of flights and average distance flown, Slight decrease (<1%) in average distance flown for arrival/departure flows. Typical flows where changes in routing are observed in Germany are shown in Figure 35. Figure 34. Differences in route length and number of flights for Germany. Germany Avg Distance flown Total Distance Flown Nb Flights (NM) (million NM) N Scenario Flows Unit Rates ADI AD ,030 I ,135 O ,618 Total (DAIO) , Unit Rates (initial proposals) ADI AD ,030 I ,135 O ,667 Total (DAIO) ,832 Difference (2015 proposed rates vs 2014 rates) ADI AD -0.7% -0.6% 0.0% I 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% O -3.7% -7.4% -4.0% Total (DAIO) -1.9% -2.9% -1.5% Overall, we see that the initial proposed increase of unit rates for Germany as potentially decreasing traffic, especially for Germany around 2.9% reduction in total km flown, reducing number of flights by 1.5% and average distance flown by 1.9%. Since overflights generate 10 service units in Germany compared to 4 for all flights, the 7% reduction in overflight distance is an important indicator of the changes in income. 13 ADI: Arrival/Departure/Internal, O: Overflight. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 33

35 Figure 35. Typical AP2 avoiding/flying shorter routes over Germany (red: current unit rates, green: 2015 unit rates estimates) LTBA-LFPG flow: difference of 7 flights on 8 May 2014 EGLL-LIPE flow: difference of 3 flights on 8 May 2014 GCTS-EPWA flow: no difference in number of flights but 55% reduction in average cross length (NM) EHAM-LIRF flow: no difference in number of flights but 36% reduction in average cross length (NM) EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 34

36 5. SERVICE UNIT GROWTH TO 2020 In 2014, million service units are expected to be produced. This is a 2.1 percentage points revision compared to the February 2014 forecast. The cause of this is threefold: the upwards revision in the flight forecast, the continuing increasing trend in weights and a substantial level of additional flights crossing over the CRCO11 states as a result of the airspace closures since spring For 2015 and the following years, the higher growth rates are faded out and this recent forecast falls within the high-low forecast range published in the February 2014 forecast. The RP2 average annual growth rate of 2.9% for the states participating the Performance Scheme remains at the level of the February 2014 publication. 5.1 En-route Service units (TSU) Following the upward revision in the flight forecast, en-route service units are expected to end 2014 higher than expected in the forecast of February This is mainly for the same reasons as for the flight forecast changes but also by additional overflights and flights added to the states in the CRCO11 since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Ukraine and Moldova have seen their overflights decreasing and shifting more southerly over CRCO11 area, due to the unavailable airspace in Ukraine. Thirdly, service units also continue to grow faster than flights caused by a general trend in increasing average weights. In 2014, million service units (TSU) are expected to be produced. This is 5.7% more than in 2013 and a revision up by 2.1 percentage points compared to the February 2014 forecast (February was 3.6%). This revision is not only resulting from the upwards revision in flights, but amplified by the accelerating weight trend (see Section 2.1 and Figure 16). The 2014 flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08) has been revised upwards by 0.6 percentage point from 1.2% (in the previous release) to 1.8%. Years 3 to 7 of the forecast have been fully updated and take into account new routings, average weight and distance levels resulting from the recent events in Europe such as described in Section 3.2. The total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11) are expected to grow by 3.9% (±1.7 pp) in 2015 compared to 2014 and reach million. This is a slight upwards revision compared to the 3.7% growth that was expected in February The service units will end 3.1 million higher than expected in the February 2014 forecast. The acceleration of growth compared to the February 2014 forecast slows after The TSU are expected to be higher by around 4.6 million in 2019 than previously forecast, reaching in total million in For those States participating in the Performance Scheme, the average annual growth in RP2 (2019 versus a baseline year of 2014) is 2.9% (±1.5 pp), slightly up from the 2.8% per year from the February forecast. Finally, by 2020, the TSU are expected to reach million representing a baseline scenario average growth of 3.7% per year from 2013 and a total growth of 28.7% compared to Figure 36 compares the evolution of the forecast between the February 2014 forecast and this new forecast release for the CRCO11 grouping. The TSU forecast for the first year has been adapted upwards by an additional 2.1 percentage points. As from 2015 onwards, TSU have been marginally revised upwards by 0.2 percentage point in the first year and less in the consequent years, resulting in overall higher TSU forecast from 2015 onwards. The TSU in 2020 is foreseen to be 0.2 percentage point lower than in the February 2014 forecast. This variation from forecast to forecast is well within the low-to-high-scenario range, except for the first year 2014 (5.7% new forecast vs. February high scenario of 5.1%). EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 35

37 Figure 36. Comparison of the forecast between the current TSU forecast and February 2013 for CRCO11 Area. Any user of this seven-year forecast should consult the entire forecast range (low-growth to highgrowth) as an indicator of risk. Despite the revisions to the CRCO11 forecast just described, the 2020 forecast is well within the low-high range of the previous forecast (Figure 36) This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. the economic indicators could worsen) and upside risks (e.g. high load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-than-expected). Section 6 elaborates further on risks. For the TSU, by 2020, the high-growth scenario has 13.8 million more and low-growth scenario has 15.3 million fewer TSU than the base scenario (+11% and -12% in terms of growth respectively). The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 38. The detailed forecasts for each State are in Annexes F and G. Note that the definition PScheme does not show in the report anymore and is replaced by RP1Region and RP2Region, which now includes Croatia. RP1Region corresponds to the former PScheme and is still reported on to enable a comparison with previous forecast. Figure 37. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe. Total en-route service units (Thousands) / 2013 Total Growth RP1 2014/ 2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 H , , , , , , ,710 40% 2.3% 4.8% CRCO11* B 117, , , , , , , , , , ,869 29% 2.1% 3.4% L , , , , , , ,565 16% 2.0% 1.7% RP1Region B 100, , , , , , , , , , ,578 24% 1.5% 2.9% H , , , , , , ,902 35% 1.7% 4.3% L , , , , , , ,509 13% 1.4% 1.3% RP2Region B 102, , , , , , , , , , ,710 24% 1.5% 2.9% H , , , , , , ,260 35% 1.7% 4.3% L , , , , , , ,410 13% 1.4% 1.3% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 36

38 Total en-route service units (Growth) / 2013 Total Growth RP1 2014/ 2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 H % 5.6% 5.4% 4.4% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.9% 2.3% 4.8% CRCO11* B 3.5% 5.0% -1.3% 2.1% 5.7% 3.9% 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 2.1% 3.4% L % 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% RP1Region B 2.6% 4.5% -1.5% 1.6% 4.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 1.5% 2.9% H % 5.1% 4.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 1.7% 4.3% L % 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% RP2Region B 2.7% 4.6% -1.4% 1.6% 4.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 1.5% 2.9% H % 5.1% 4.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 1.7% 4.3% L % 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% * CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year. See Annex A. RP1Region stands for the sum over all the 30 states that are currently involved in the EU-wide performance target setting minus Croatia (28 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland minus Croatia). RP2Region is RP1Region plus Croatia. Figure 38. Average annual growth of service units between 2013 and 2020 EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 37

39 5.2 What-if? restoration of pre-ukraine closure routings We examined the effect of re-routings on service units following the Russia-Ukraine crisis with a what-if?-analysis. This showed a potential in 2020, following a return to normal routing, for some States to gain service units (Moldova +74%, Ukraine +60%) while others lose TSU (Bulgaria -16.6%, Bosnia -11.5%, Slovenia -5.9%, Turkey -5.5%). The CRCO11 area is estimated to lose around 2% in Service units by 2020 as the currently rerouted Ukrainian overflights (not in the CRCO11 region) return to their pre-incident routings. These changes are not built into the published forecast, but provided to support analysis of risk. The service unit forecast is sensitive to network changes and to changes of choice of route through the network. The number of flights is influenced by these network changes, but there might be an additional effect on the average distance and weight factors. This represents a risk which can be on the up-side for some states and conversely on the down-side for others. A what-if scenario for Ukraine restoration, similar to the what-if scenario for flights as described in Section 4.4, was applied to service units. The main forecast assumes that the re-routings such as described in Section 2.1, will remain at least till end of The what-if?-analysis estimates the effects of a potential re-opening of the airspace in The what-if?-method for service units uses the what-if flight forecast (based upon traffic routing patterns of 2013) combined with 2013 weight and distance averages. This section describes the results of that what-if?-analysis focusing on the Eastern part of Europe. Similar to the what-if scenario for flights, for total Europe, the date of the end of the Russia- Ukraine crisis has very limited impact on total traffic. However, the total service units for the states in the CRCO11 region are estimated to be 2% lower for the what-if scenario in CRCO11 does not include Ukraine, which will see its overflights, currently re-routed over the CRCO11 area, return to previous routes. Similar to the conclusions drawn for flights from the what-if? analysis, differences at State level are observed when overflight flows crossing Ukraine would return to normality. So within Europe, some States would benefit from this while others would lose. Figure 39 shows the percentage difference in service units between the what-if? analysis and the published forecast for all States surrounding Ukraine. As shown, Moldova is estimated to have the potential for a 74% increase in number of service units in 2020 if flows returned to their pre-russia-ukraine crisis patterns as of Ukraine has a potential of 60% increase in number of service units. These potential gains and losses per State must be treated cautiously as this is only one possible scenario. The results are approximate and might vary and be subject to possible new evolutions in the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Figure 39 Total change in Service Units in percentage per State after full restoration to flows pre-russia-ukraine crisis (only States within the zone of interest). EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 38

40 5.3 Terminal Navigation Service units (TNSU) Growth in TNSU is driven by the same factors which influence flight growth (see Section 2.1) with the trend for increasing average weight having an additional effect. This TNSU forecast is based on the IFR flight forecast (Section 2.1) and uses the CRCO flight database for all States except for Estonia which provided STATFOR with its own data, to capture the necessary information about weight of the aircraft. More details about the TNSU forecast method can be found in Ref. 3. The definition of the terminal charging zones (TCZ) is based on the known list of airports per TCZ for RP2 provided by States as available in their RP2 performance plans submitted in June 2014 (see Annex A for RP2 region definition and TCZ list). The detailed results per TCZ are given in Annex H. The expected for RP2 is 2.7% and by 2020, after the end of the reference period, 8.5 million TNSU are expected for the whole region (Figure 40). With the aim of improving the forecast for RP2, the history for RP1 was reconstructed as detailed in Annex H. It is due to this modification that the growth of 0.3% for 2014 is relatively weak, especially when compared to the growth in flights of 2.1% for EU28 in 2014 (see Annex D). Figure 40. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2Region area as defined. RP2 Region RP1 2014/ 2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 TNSU Total (thousands) TNSU Annual Growth (%) High % 4.0% Base % 2.7% Low % 1.1% High % 4.0% 4.6% 3.6% 4.2% 3.8% 3.9% -0.4% 4.0% Base. 8.6% -1.9% -0.2% 0.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% -0.4% 2.7% Low % 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% -0.5% 1.1% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 39

41 6. RISK TO THE FORECAST GROWTH Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. These flight and service unit forecasts are prepared in conditions of large changes in traffic routings. For many individual States, these are the biggest risks for traffic growth. The main sources of uncertainty in the intermediate forecast are as follows. In percentage terms for individual States, the biggest risks concern the route choices of airlines, which are generally downside risks for some States and simultaneously upside risks for others, balancing out across Europe as a whole: By 2020 there is a significant probability that flights through Eastern Ukraine, if not through its southern airspace, will be restored. Section 4.4 discusses the impact of this risk, which ranges from +38% to -15% in terms of flights. Closure of Libyan airspace has reduced Maltese overflights as well as re-routed traffic to southern Africa. It is not clear when normal patterns will be restored. Unit rates are one of the many factors that influence an airline s choice of route. Proposed, large changes in rates for 2015 could lead to low single-figure percentage changes in flight counts. The probability of this risk is high, it is the scale of the impact here which is more uncertain. Currently, the Syrian conflict is having an important impact on overflights across South-East Europe. We have not included an end to this in our scenario, though clearly at some point this network disruption will clear and the overflight changes reverse. Section 4.4 in the February forecast described a detailed what-if? study of this risk. Previous years have seen persistent (many months) reduction in en route capacity as a result of the introduction of new ATC systems. This results in tactical and strategic re-routing of traffic, enough to affect annual totals. More changes are on the way, presenting further risks, for example Spain, Norway and Turkey have changes planned. The jet stream influences route choice too, though this is more usually an effect over days or weeks than over the whole year saw an unusual pattern for the jet stream, leading to more southerly routings that in the past. We have not adjusted the data for this, nor modelled a future restoration. More generally, future network changes (e.g., new routes) and airlines changing choice of routes are not modelled by the forecast. The economic forecasts used here were updated in August The economic outlook remains uncertain and 2014 is yet another year in which initial optimism has dwindled as the year has gone on. The low scenario provides some guidance here. Economic risks are to some extent synchronised, so do not balance out across Europe as routing risks do. Two States, Turkey and Russia, have been the predominant drivers of flight growth in recent years. This makes growth sensitive to the continued expansion of these two economies. Sanctions on Russia, and Russia's response to them, is part of the reason for the decline in traffic from Russia (see section 2). This could improve, but could easily get worse, representing on balance a downside risk. On the other hand, there are growing competitive pressures for expansion, especially for low-cost carriers, so as aircraft deliveries accelerate we could see more rapid expansion, although in our view this is likely to be localised. The high scenario provides some guidance for this, but only for local, not widespread application. Load factors remain at or near record highs (Section 2). As traffic begins to grow again, this means that load factors might be able to absorb less of the passenger growth than they have in past years. From the present position, the recovery would then come more rapidly than anticipated. This is therefore an upside risk. We analysed the current airline schedules, but did not find them as a whole credible indicators of Winter traffic, so excluded them from this forecast. In parts, where we could cross-validate EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 40

42 against other information, we used partial information. Nevertheless, airlines are likely to adapt their plans as the Winter approaches and progresses. This is on balance a downside risk, based on previous airline behaviour, and signals of fragility of some operators in spite of a profitable Summer. Tourism trends are quite variable. The forecast does not identify which will be the new holiday destination of preference in a given year. The recent political instability in both Egypt and Tunisia has led to more variability in tourism destinations. On the whole this is more likely an upside risk (a faster recovery than in our scenarios, see Section 3.2). Oil prices remain changeable with oil being increasingly an item of speculation and investment, and with the recent rapprochement of Iran and the US. With fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the airlines, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer (see Section 2.1). Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. In the 6 months since the last forecast mentioned a further volcanic eruption or pandemic being some of the risks, both have occurred. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant; in the case of Ebola, the situation sadly looks set to get much worse before it gets better, although the direct impact on flights should remain limited. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 41

43 7. GLOSSARY AD, A/D AIRAC AEA B CRCO11 ESRA EU27 EU28 FAB FIR GDP H I ICAO IFR KFOR L MTF MTF13b MTF14 MTF14b NM O OE pp PScheme RP1 RP2 Average annual growth Arrivals/Departures Aeronautical Information and Regulation and Control Association of European Airlines (in tables) Baseline Scenario Current states participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex A.1) European Union (27 States) European Union (28 States): EU27 plus Croatia. Functional Airspace Block Flight Information Region Gross Domestic Product (in tables) High-Growth Scenario Internals International Civil Aviation Organisation Instrument Flight Rules Kosovo Force (in tables) Low-Growth Scenario Medium-Term (Seven-Year) Forecast September 2013 publication of the MTF February 2014 publication of the MTF September 2014 publication of the MTF Network Manager Overflights Oxford Economics Ltd percentage point States involved in the Performance scheme first period of reference (EU27, Norway and Switzerland no longer used) First Period of Reference ( ) for the Performance Scheme of the SES Second Period of Reference ( ) for the Performance Scheme of the SES RP1Region See PScheme RP2Region States involved in the Performance scheme second period of reference (EU28, Norway and Switzerland) SES SID Single European Sky STATFOR Interactive Dashboard STATFOR Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service TCZ TNSU TSU TZ UIR Terminal Charging Zone (a grouping of airports) Terminal Navigation Service Units Total En-Route Service Units Traffic Zone ( State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro) Upper Flight Information Region EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 42

44 A. Traffic Region Definitions ESRA08 The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of sources within the Agency. It is used for high-level reports from the Agency, when referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only slowly with time; a region is added to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data from all sources, so that growth calculations are possible. ESRA08 was introduced in the MTF09 report. It is now used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts. Note that the EUROCONTROL forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (e.g., Armenia and Latvia), though still within ECAC. Figure 41. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ESRA08 consists of 34 traffic zones. Traffic zones are defined by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between a FIR and an ACC definition is small. Traffic regions The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency. As far as possible, these regions have been aligned with ICAO statistical and forecast regions. Traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed in Figure 42. Each traffic region is made up of a number of traffic zones (=States), which are indicated by the first letters of the ICAO location codes for brevity. As far as Europe is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in the previous section) and Other Europe. For flow purposes, ESRA is split into a North-West region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a Mediterranean region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 43

45 significant tourist element, and an Eastern region. The Other Europe region (i.e. non ESRA) includes the States along the border of ESRA and extends from Greenland to the Urals and Azerbaijan. The map of the nine traffic regions used in our statistics is displayed in Figure 43. Figure 42. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August ICAO region/country ESRA North-West ESRA Mediterranean ESRA East Other Europe North Atlantic Mid-Atlantic South-Atlantic North-Africa Southern Africa Middle-East Asia/Pacific EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE, LX, UB, UD, UG, UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW, Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria FIR C, K, P M, T S DA, DT, GM, HE, HL D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM) L, O (except OA, OP) A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and areas in Other Europe) Figure 43. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics. EU28 This 7-year forecast report includes, for the first time, EU28, taking the accession of Croatia into account. Functional Airspace Blocks On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from 2014 to 2020 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace based on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 44). FAB initiatives (definitions) are now frozen according to the targets defined to improve the performance of the European air traffic EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 44

46 management network. STATFOR defines the FABs based on the FIR 14 boundaries. The definition of FAB-FIR is: UK-Ireland FAB (SCOTTISH FIR&UIR, LONDON FIR&UIR, SHANNON FIR&UIR) Danish-Swedish FAB (COPENHAGEN FIR, SWEDEN FIR) Baltic FAB (WARSZAWA FIR, VILNIUS FIR&UIR) BLUE MED FAB (NICOSIA FIR&UIR, ATHINAI FIR&UIR, BRINDISI FIR&UIR, MILANO FIR&UIR, ROMA FIR&UIR, MALTA FIR&UIR) Danube FAB (SOFIA FIR, BUCAREST FIR) FAB CE (ZAGREB FIR, BUDAPEST FIR, LJUBLJANA FIR, PRAHA FIR, WIEN FIR, SARAJEVO FIR&UIR, BRATISLAVA FIR) FABEC (BRUSSELS FIR&UIR, LANGEN FIR, MUNCHEN FIR, RHEIN UIR, HANNOVER UIR, BREMEN FIR, AMSTERDAM FIR, BORDEAUX FIR, REIMS FIR, PARIS FIR, FRANCE UIR, MARSEILLE FIR, BREST FIR, SWITZERLAND FIR, SWITZERLAND UIR) North European FAB (TALLINN FIR, FINLAND FIR&UIR, ENOR FIR, RIGA FIR, BODO OCEANIC FIR) South West FAB (CANARIAS FIR&UIR, LISBOA FIR, MADRID FIR&UIR, BARCELONA FIR&UIR). The change compared to the previous definition used in the past forecast reports (August December 2013) consisted in removing the TIRANA FIR from BLUE MED FAB as well as the removal of SOTA and NOTA from UK-Ireland FAB. This new definition is in line with the FAB-FIR definition of the Performance Review Unit (PRU) of EUROCONTROL. Figure 44. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission (STATFOR update: January 2014). Source: EUROCONTROL PRU CRCO11 "CRCO11" refers to the EUROCONTROL Member States participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in This list comprises: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, 14 Note that the PRU uses the FAB-ANSP definition. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 45

47 Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canary Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, FYROM, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lisbon FIR, Lithuania, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Santa Maria FIR, Serbia&Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK. RPRegions RP1Region and RP2Region are the two regions involved in the Performance Scheme respectively related to First Reference Period ( ) and Second Review Period ( ). RP1Region: stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the first period, namely: 28 EU member states plus Norway plus Switzerland minus Croatia. RP2Region: stands for the sum over all the 30 states that are involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the second period, namely: 28 EU member states plus Norway plus Switzerland. The SES and PScheme regions presented in previous reports (Traffic Tables of the Annexes) are not reported anymore, as they could introduce some confusion with respect to the RPRegions above mentioned. Terminal Charging Zones A terminal charging zone is an airport or a group of airports for which a cost-based unit rate is established. The forecast of terminal navigation service units from 2014 shown in Annex G has been produced based per TCZ based on the definition submitted by the Stakeholders in their RP2 performance plans as available in June The list of aerodromes forming the TCZs during RP2 for the 30 States participating in the SES performance scheme (RP2) can be found in Figure 44. We understand that changes may be being considered by States, but they were not available at the time of the forecast production. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 46

48 EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 47 Figure 45. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2. Austria LO_TCZ LOWG LOWI LOWK LOWL LOWS LOWW Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW EBAW Belgium EB_TCZ_EBBR EBBR Belgium EB_TCZ_EBCI EBCI Belgium EB_TCZ_EBLG EBLG Belgium EB_TCZ_EBOS EBOS Bulgaria LB_TCZ LBBG LBGO LBPD LBSF LBWN Croatia LD_TCZ LDZA Cyprus LC_TCZ LCLK LCPH Czech Republic LK_TCZ LKKV LKMT LKPR LKTB Denmark EK_TCZ EKCH Estonia EE_TCZ Finland EF_TCZ EETN EETU EFHK France LF_TCZ LFAQ LFBA LFBD LFBE LFBH LFBI LFBL LFBO LFBP LFBT LFBZ LFCR LFGJ LFJL LFJR LFKB LFKC LFKF LFKJ LFLB LFLC LFLL LFLP LFLS LFLX LFLY LFMD LFMH LFMI LFMK LFML LFMN LFMP LFMT LFMU LFMV LFOB LFOH LFOK LFOT LFPB LFPG LFPN LFPO LFQQ LFRB LFRD LFRG LFRH LFRK LFRN LFRO LFRQ LFRS LFRZ LFSB LFSD LFSL LFST LFTH LFTW Germany ED_TCZ EDDB EDDC EDDE EDDF EDDG EDDH EDDK EDDL EDDM EDDN EDDP EDDR EDDS EDDT EDDV EDDW Greece LG_TCZ LGAV Hungary LH_TCZ LHBP Ireland EI_TCZ EICK EIDW EINN Italy LI_TCZ_1 LIRF Italy LI_TCZ_2 LIMC LIME LIML LIPZ Latvia EV_TCZ EVLA EVRA EVVA Lithuania EY_TCZ EYKA EYPA EYSA EYVI Luxembourg EL_TCZ ELLX Malta LM_TCZ LMML Netherlands EH_TCZ EHAM EHBK EHGG EHRD Norway EN_TCZ ENBR ENGM ENVA ENZV Poland EP_TCZ EPBY EPGD EPKK EPKT EPLB EPLL EPMO EPPO EPRA EPRZ EPSC EPWA EPWR EPZG Portugal LP_TCZ LPAZ LPFL LPFR LPHR LPMA LPPD LPPR LPPS LPPT Romania LR_TCZ LRBS LROP Slovakia LZ_TCZ LZIB Slovenia LJ_TCZ LJLJ LJMB LJPZ Spain LE_TCZ GCLP LEBL LEMD LEMG LEPA Sweden ES_TCZ_A ESSA Switzerland LS_TCZ LSGG LSZH UK EG_TCZ_B EGBB EGCC EGGW EGKK EGLC EGLL EGPF EGPH EGSS

49 B. Summary of forecast for ESRA08 Figure 46. Growth in Europe (ESRA08) EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR

50 Figure 47. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ESRA08) ESRA08 IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth 2020/ RP1 2014/ 2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 Total: Internal H.... 7,472 7,727 8,008 8,244 8,484 8,729 8, % 3.4% 3.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% -1.4% 3.2% B 7,562 7,790 7,514 7,347 7,453 7,608 7,789 7,927 8,067 8,252 8, % 3.0% -3.5% -2.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 1.8% 1.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.0% -1.5% 2.1% L.... 7,432 7,468 7,515 7,549 7,609 7,681 7, % 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 0.8% -1.6% 0.7% Total: Arr/Dep H.... 2,020 2,120 2,247 2,374 2,501 2,647 2, % 4.9% 6.0% 5.6% 5.4% 5.9% 6.1% 5.3% 2.4% 5.6% B 1,815 1,883 1,916 1,961 2,014 2,080 2,169 2,257 2,339 2,443 2, % 3.7% 1.7% 2.4% 2.7% 3.3% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 4.4% 4.8% 3.9% 2.3% 3.9% L.... 2,008 2,036 2,079 2,125 2,177 2,231 2, % 1.4% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% Total: Overflight H % 7.3% 8.3% 7.8% 8.4% 8.4% 8.5% 8.6% 11.7% 8.0% B % -3.4% 6.6% 17% 12% 5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 6.1% 5.9% 6.0% 6.6% 11.6% 5.8% L % 3.8% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.1% 4.1% 5.0% 11.5% 4.0% Grand Total H.... 9,648 10,013 10,436 10,812 11,196 11,604 12, % 3.8% 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% -0.5% 3.8% B 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,447 9,622 9,852 10,131 10,366 10,600 10,900 11, % 3.1% -2.4% -1.1% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% -0.6% 2.5% L.... 9,595 9,665 9,761 9,847 9,967 10,100 10, % 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% -0.6% 1.0% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 49

51 Figure 48. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ESRA08 IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth 2020/ ESRA North-W ESRA North-W H % 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% B % 3.0% -2.7% -2.5% -0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% 2 ESRA Mediter 3 ESRA Mediter 4 ESRA East ESRA North-W ESRA Mediter ESRA North-W L % 0.5% -0.2% -0.8% -0.3% -0.1% 0.3% -0.2% H % 3.8% 3.9% 3.1% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7% B % 6.2% -1.3% 1.6% 5.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% L % 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% H % 3.9% 4.5% 4.9% 4.0% 4.6% 5.3% 4.5% B % 0.9% -8.8% -6.2% 3.6% 2.3% 4.0% 3.9% 2.8% 4.5% 5.0% 3.7% L % 0.4% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3% H % 5.3% 7.5% 6.3% 6.3% 5.4% 4.9% 4.8% B % 1.9% 0.0% 1.0% -2.0% 3.0% 4.3% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% 2.9% L % 0.7% 1.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 5 ESRA North-W North Atlant H % 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 2.2% B % 4.6% -2.7% -0.5% 2.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% L % 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.0% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR

52 C. Seven-year flight forecast per state (IFR movements) This appendix presents the flight forecast details. On top of the average annual growth rates () over the 7-year horizon, average annual growth rates over the first reference period (RP1) and the second reference period (RP2) of the Performance Scheme have been added to the tables. Figure 49. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State. IFR Movements (thousands) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Albania H %.. B %.. L %.. Armenia H %.. B %.. L %.. Austria H.... 1,157 1,202 1,261 1,311 1,364 1,415 1, % 0.1% 4.1% B 1,137 1,154 1,133 1,114 1,153 1,178 1,214 1,244 1,275 1,311 1, % -0.0% 2.6% L.... 1,149 1,153 1,164 1,174 1,189 1,204 1, % -0.1% 0.9% Azerbaijan H %.. B %.. L %.. Belarus H %.. B %.. L %.. Belgium/ Luxembourg H.... 1,137 1,183 1,227 1,264 1,305 1,346 1, % 1.4% 3.4% B 1,035 1,091 1,089 1,101 1,134 1,166 1,194 1,216 1,243 1,271 1, % 1.3% 2.3% L.... 1,130 1,144 1,150 1,156 1,167 1,178 1, % 1.2% 0.8% Bosnia- Herzegovina H %.. B %.. L %.. Bulgaria H % 7.8% 5.5% B % 7.7% 4.2% L % 7.6% 2.6% Canary Islands H % -1.0% 3.9% B % -1.1% 2.1% L % -1.3% 0.5% Croatia H % 1.2% 4.8% B % 1.1% 3.3% L % 0.9% 1.6% Cyprus H % 1.6% 6.6% B % 1.5% 4.7% L % 1.3% 2.8% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 51

53 IFR Movements (thousands) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Czech Republic H % 0.7% 5.3% B % 0.6% 3.4% L % 0.5% 1.6% Denmark H % 0.1% 3.4% B % -0.0% 2.2% L % -0.1% 0.7% Estonia H % 2.5% 5.4% B % 2.4% 3.3% L % 2.3% 1.4% FYROM H %.. B %.. L %.. Finland H % -2.2% 3.5% B % -2.3% 1.8% L % -2.4% 0.2% France H.... 2,977 3,079 3,197 3,289 3,390 3,486 3, % 0.1% 3.2% B 2,794 2,968 2,923 2,902 2,969 3,032 3,104 3,155 3,217 3,286 3, % 0.0% 2.0% L.... 2,960 2,970 2,985 2,994 3,015 3,040 3, % -0.1% 0.5% Georgia H %.. B %.. L %.. Germany H.... 3,049 3,171 3,294 3,386 3,494 3,596 3, % -0.3% 3.4% B 2,981 3,078 3,018 2,990 3,041 3,121 3,197 3,248 3,309 3,378 3, % -0.4% 2.1% L.... 3,032 3,066 3,085 3,092 3,116 3,140 3, % -0.5% 0.7% Greece H % 0.5% 4.4% B % 0.4% 3.1% L % 0.3% 1.6% Hungary H % 2.6% 5.5% B % 2.5% 3.8% L % 2.4% 2.1% Iceland H %.. B %.. L %.. Ireland H % 0.8% 3.1% B % 0.7% 2.4% L % 0.7% 1.4% Italy H.... 1,688 1,743 1,825 1,894 1,967 2,044 2, % -0.7% 3.9% B 1,712 1,726 1,685 1,648 1,683 1,710 1,760 1,802 1,845 1,896 1, % -0.8% 2.4% L.... 1,677 1,670 1,683 1,696 1,714 1,733 1, % -0.9% 0.7% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 52

54 IFR Movements (thousands) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Latvia H % 1.6% 5.5% B % 1.5% 2.9% L % 1.3% 0.9% Lisbon FIR H % 2.5% 4.2% B % 2.4% 2.5% L % 2.3% 0.8% Lithuania H % 3.9% 5.9% B % 3.7% 3.6% L % 3.6% 1.7% Malta H % 8.6% 6.0% B % 8.5% 3.6% L % 8.3% 1.4% Moldova H %.. B %.. L %.. Morocco H %.. B %.. L %.. Netherlands H.... 1,127 1,172 1,213 1,250 1,289 1,325 1, % 1.3% 3.3% B 1,013 1,085 1,083 1,109 1,125 1,161 1,190 1,215 1,241 1,269 1, % 1.2% 2.4% L.... 1,123 1,144 1,149 1,155 1,165 1,176 1, % 1.2% 0.9% Norway H % 3.6% 2.7% B % 3.5% 1.7% L % 3.4% 0.2% Poland H , % 2.8% 6.5% B % 2.7% 4.2% L % 2.6% 2.0% Romania H % 7.1% 5.9% B % 7.0% 4.3% L % 6.9% 2.6% Santa Maria FIR H % 0.6% 4.0% B % 0.5% 2.9% L % 0.4% 1.5% Serbia& Montenegro H %.. B %.. L %.. Slovakia H % 5.4% 5.5% B % 5.3% 3.7% L % 5.2% 1.9% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 53

55 IFR Movements (thousands) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Slovenia H % -0.4% 4.7% B % -0.5% 3.3% L % -0.6% 1.6% Spain H.... 1,600 1,670 1,747 1,811 1,883 1,955 2, % -1.3% 4.1% B 1,608 1,665 1,557 1,528 1,595 1,641 1,688 1,727 1,772 1,818 1, % -1.4% 2.7% L.... 1,590 1,602 1,615 1,630 1,649 1,668 1, % -1.5% 1.0% Sweden H % 1.2% 4.1% B % 1.2% 2.7% L % 1.1% 1.1% Switzerland H.... 1,034 1,081 1,124 1,160 1,196 1,221 1, % -0.9% 3.4% B 1,025 1,063 1,045 1,019 1,031 1,063 1,090 1,112 1,135 1,161 1, % -1.0% 2.4% L.... 1,028 1,041 1,047 1,053 1,063 1,072 1, % -1.1% 0.8% Turkey H.... 1,269 1,371 1,462 1,577 1,662 1,788 1, %.. B 965 1,039 1,066 1,142 1,265 1,340 1,425 1,522 1,581 1,703 1, %.. L.... 1,261 1,309 1,366 1,432 1,497 1,573 1, %.. Ukraine H %.. B %.. L %.. UK H.... 2,266 2,332 2,407 2,469 2,538 2,608 2, % 0.4% 2.9% B 2,181 2,241 2,211 2,225 2,261 2,303 2,348 2,385 2,428 2,473 2, % 0.3% 1.8% L.... 2,256 2,271 2,285 2,297 2,316 2,336 2, % 0.2% 0.7% ESRA02 H.... 9,539 9,903 10,312 10,675 11,044 11,438 11, %.. B 9,367 9,641 9,388 9,297 9,514 9,745 10,017 10,243 10,469 10,761 11, %.. L.... 9,487 9,561 9,653 9,735 9,850 9,978 10, %.. EU27 H.... 8,821 9,136 9,506 9,811 10,142 10,480 10, % -0.8% 3.5% B 8,805 9,036 8,766 8,622 8,797 8,990 9,216 9,391 9,585 9,812 10, % -0.9% 2.2% L.... 8,772 8,821 8,881 8,926 9,006 9,093 9, % -1.0% 0.7% ESRA08 H.... 9,648 10,013 10,436 10,812 11,196 11,604 12, % -0.5% 3.8% B 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,447 9,622 9,852 10,131 10,366 10,600 10,900 11, % -0.6% 2.5% L.... 9,595 9,665 9,761 9,847 9,967 10,100 10, % -0.6% 1.0% Baltic FAB H ,039 1,098 1, % 3.2% 6.1% B , % 3.1% 3.8% L % 3.0% 1.6% BLUE MED FAB H.... 2,308 2,387 2,504 2,608 2,717 2,837 2, % 0.4% 4.2% B 2,286 2,283 2,227 2,210 2,301 2,342 2,417 2,484 2,552 2,634 2, % 0.3% 2.7% L.... 2,293 2,290 2,315 2,343 2,378 2,415 2, % 0.2% 1.0% Danube FAB H ,033 1,093 1, % 3.6% 5.4% B ,015 1, % 3.5% 3.9% L % 3.4% 2.3% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 54

56 IFR Movements (thousands) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 FAB CE H.... 1,948 2,030 2,141 2,236 2,335 2,436 2, % 0.6% 4.6% B 1,864 1,914 1,865 1,854 1,941 1,988 2,057 2,114 2,171 2,239 2, % 0.5% 2.9% L.... 1,935 1,945 1,969 1,992 2,020 2,049 2, % 0.4% 1.1% FABEC H.... 5,606 5,795 6,013 6,179 6,365 6,541 6, % -0.4% 3.1% B 5,431 5,671 5,564 5,499 5,592 5,710 5,844 5,935 6,047 6,173 6, % -0.5% 2.0% L.... 5,576 5,605 5,635 5,647 5,686 5,730 5, % -0.6% 0.5% NEFAB H.... 1,046 1,081 1,121 1,157 1,193 1,232 1, % 1.9% 3.3% B ,001 1,012 1,043 1,064 1,085 1,102 1,121 1,142 1, % 1.8% 1.8% L.... 1,041 1,044 1,044 1,044 1,048 1,051 1, % 1.7% 0.2% South West FAB H.... 1,670 1,745 1,825 1,892 1,968 2,044 2, % -2.9% 4.1% B 1,765 1,823 1,644 1,591 1,666 1,714 1,763 1,804 1,850 1,898 1, % -3.0% 2.6% L.... 1,660 1,674 1,687 1,702 1,722 1,741 1, % -3.1% 1.0% UK-Ireland FAB H.... 2,303 2,373 2,451 2,515 2,586 2,657 2, % 0.4% 2.9% B 2,216 2,272 2,238 2,254 2,298 2,345 2,392 2,430 2,474 2,521 2, % 0.4% 1.9% L.... 2,293 2,312 2,328 2,340 2,360 2,380 2, % 0.3% 0.8% DK-SE FAB H.... 1,027 1,069 1,115 1,153 1,192 1,230 1, % 0.6% 3.7% B 953 1, ,025 1,054 1,083 1,106 1,130 1,153 1, % 0.6% 2.4% L.... 1,022 1,035 1,043 1,050 1,058 1,065 1, % 0.5% 0.8% EU28 H.... 8,834 9,150 9,520 9,826 10,158 10,496 10, % -0.8% 3.5% B 8,820 9,050 8,779 8,634 8,811 9,004 9,230 9,405 9,600 9,827 10, % -0.9% 2.2% L.... 8,786 8,834 8,895 8,940 9,020 9,107 9, % -1.0% 0.7% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 55

57 D. Seven-year flight forecast per state (Growth) This appendix shows the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than counts of flights. Figure 50. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State. IFR Movements (Growth) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Albania H % 8.7% 4.6% 4.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.8% 4.8%.. B 12% 8.7% -1.1% 2.8% 2.7% 7.1% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6% 3.3% 3.7% 3.6%.. L % 5.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 2.1%.. Armenia H % 12% 8.6% 8.0% 7.6% 8.0% 8.2% 8.0%.. B 9.3% 8.1% -2.0% -6.6% 3.6% 9.3% 6.4% 6.3% 5.8% 6.4% 6.5% 6.3%.. L % 6.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.3% 4.6%.. Austria H % 3.9% 4.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 4.6% 4.1% 0.1% 4.1% B 2.2% 1.5% -1.8% -1.7% 3.5% 2.2% 3.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% -0.0% 2.6% L % 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% -0.1% 0.9% Azerbaijan H % 6.0% 7.7% 7.5% 6.5% 7.9% 9.1% 6.3%.. B 11% 2.8% 5.4% -1.3% -0.5% 4.3% 6.2% 6.2% 5.0% 6.9% 7.8% 5.1%.. L % 2.4% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% 3.5%.. Belarus H % 6.6% 6.8% 6.0% 6.1% 6.0% 5.9% 6.6%.. B 7.7% 15% 6.7% 3.8% 8.7% 4.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.8%.. L % 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 3.1%.. Belgium/ Luxembourg H % 4.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 3.3% 1.4% 3.4% B 1.5% 5.4% -0.2% 1.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 1.3% 2.3% L % 1.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.8% Bosnia- Herzegovina H % 5.7% 5.2% 4.6% 4.3% 4.8% 5.2% 5.9%.. B 11% 10% -2.6% -2.2% 11% 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 3.6% 3.9% 4.5%.. L % 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 2.9%.. Bulgaria H % 6.6% 5.4% 5.5% 4.3% 5.9% 6.8% 8.0% 7.8% 5.5% B 5.6% 7.1% 0.2% 1.9% 22% 4.7% 4.1% 4.2% 2.8% 5.0% 5.8% 6.8% 7.7% 4.2% L % 2.8% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 5.2% 7.6% 2.6% Canary Islands H % 5.3% 4.0% 3.2% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 4.6% -1.0% 3.9% B 3.2% 8.2% -7.7% -3.4% 8.4% 3.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 3.0% -1.1% 2.1% L % 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 1.5% -1.3% 0.5% Croatia H % 6.3% 4.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.9% 4.8% 1.2% 4.8% B 8.7% 8.4% -0.4% -0.6% 4.3% 4.5% 3.1% 2.9% 2.6% 3.3% 3.7% 3.5% 1.1% 3.3% L % 2.5% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.9% 0.9% 1.6% Cyprus H % 5.9% 6.7% 6.7% 6.3% 7.2% 8.1% 6.8% 1.6% 6.6% B 6.4% -1.2% -4.1% 2.8% 6.0% 3.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.3% 5.6% 6.5% 5.1% 1.5% 4.7% L % 1.5% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 1.3% 2.8% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 56

58 IFR Movements (Growth) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Czech Republic H % 6.6% 6.0% 4.6% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 5.1% 0.7% 5.3% B 3.2% 4.0% -2.3% 0.0% 4.1% 4.7% 3.8% 2.7% 2.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 0.6% 3.4% L % 2.8% 1.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.9% 0.5% 1.6% Denmark H % 3.9% 3.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.1% 2.7% 3.0% 0.1% 3.4% B 3.3% 5.1% -3.2% 2.3% 1.0% 2.7% 2.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% -0.0% 2.2% L % 1.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% -0.1% 0.7% Estonia H % 5.5% 5.7% 4.9% 5.4% 5.3% 5.1% 5.3% 2.5% 5.4% B 2.1% 14% 6.1% -3.1% 4.6% 3.5% 3.3% 2.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 2.4% 3.3% L % 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 2.3% 1.4% FYROM H % 7.3% 5.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.5% 5.0% 7.4%.. B -0.1% -0.4% -9.6% 0.1% 22% 5.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9% 3.5% 3.8% 6.1%.. L % 3.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 4.6%.. Finland H % 4.2% 3.8% 2.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% -2.2% 3.5% B 0.6% 11% -5.8% -3.5% 2.6% 2.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% -2.3% 1.8% L % 0.7% -0.1% -0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% -2.4% 0.2% France H % 3.4% 3.8% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 3.1% 0.1% 3.2% B -0.2% 6.2% -1.5% -0.7% 2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 0.0% 2.0% L % 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% -0.1% 0.5% Georgia H % 9.4% 8.0% 8.0% 6.7% 8.0% 8.9% 7.6%.. B 22% 16% -1.7% 2.1% 4.2% 7.3% 6.4% 6.4% 5.0% 7.0% 7.6% 6.3%.. L % 5.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5%.. Germany H % 4.0% 3.9% 2.8% 3.2% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% -0.3% 3.4% B 1.7% 3.2% -1.9% -0.9% 1.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% -0.4% 2.1% L % 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% -0.5% 0.7% Greece H % 4.9% 4.4% 4.1% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 4.8% 0.5% 4.4% B 2.6% 0.2% -3.5% -1.6% 6.5% 3.4% 3.1% 2.9% 2.8% 3.5% 4.0% 3.7% 0.4% 3.1% L % 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 0.3% 1.6% Hungary H % 6.8% 5.7% 5.2% 4.7% 5.2% 5.8% 6.3% 2.6% 5.5% B 2.4% -0.8% -4.4% 1.9% 11% 4.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.9% 2.5% 3.8% L % 3.0% 1.7% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 3.2% 2.4% 2.1% Iceland H % 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.6%.. B 0.6% 9.0% 11% 6.8% 11% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% 4.3%.. L % 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 3.0%.. Ireland H % 3.9% 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 0.8% 3.1% B -3.1% 1.9% -0.4% 0.3% 2.3% 3.3% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 0.7% 2.4% L % 2.3% 1.1% 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.6% 0.7% 1.4% Italy H % 3.2% 4.7% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 4.1% 3.7% -0.7% 3.9% B 3.9% 0.8% -2.3% -2.2% 2.1% 1.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% -0.8% 2.4% L % -0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% -0.9% 0.7% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 57

59 IFR Movements (Growth) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Latvia H % 6.3% 5.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 4.9% 5.3% 1.6% 5.5% B 4.0% 9.8% -1.0% 1.3% 4.2% 3.7% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 3.1% 1.5% 2.9% L % 1.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3% 0.9% Lisbon FIR H % 5.8% 4.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 4.6% 2.5% 4.2% B 5.6% 4.8% -2.7% 2.6% 7.4% 4.0% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 3.1% 2.4% 2.5% L % 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 1.6% 2.3% 0.8% Lithuania H % 7.5% 6.1% 5.1% 5.4% 5.3% 4.8% 6.0% 3.9% 5.9% B 7.3% 13% 1.0% 2.8% 7.4% 5.2% 3.4% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 4.1% 3.7% 3.6% L % 3.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 2.4% 3.6% 1.7% Malta H % 1.4% 7.5% 7.0% 6.7% 7.7% 8.4% 4.7% 8.6% 6.0% B 12% -15% 20% 13% -5.7% -1.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.2% 5.3% 6.0% 2.6% 8.5% 3.6% L % -3.8% 2.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 0.5% 8.3% 1.4% Moldova H % 14% 8.0% 7.1% 6.9% 6.8% 6.5% 4.6%.. B 24% 11% 5.7% 16% -15% 11% 5.6% 5.1% 4.8% 5.3% 5.4% 2.9%.. L % 8.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 1.1%.. Morocco H % 6.3% 8.3% 7.5% 8.2% 8.4% 8.6% 7.8%.. B 8.6% 3.9% -8.1% 3.3% 7.1% 3.8% 4.9% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.2% 5.1%.. L % 1.3% 1.8% 2.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7%.. Netherlands H % 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.1% 2.8% 2.1% 2.9% 1.3% 3.3% B 1.7% 7.2% -0.2% 2.4% 1.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2% 1.2% 2.4% L % 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% Norway H % 3.3% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 1.7% 2.5% 3.6% 2.7% B 2.2% 4.9% 4.2% 4.0% 2.4% 2.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 3.5% 1.7% L % 1.0% -0.1% -0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 3.4% 0.2% Poland H % 7.2% 7.4% 6.3% 6.2% 5.6% 4.3% 5.7% 2.8% 6.5% B 5.8% 9.4% 4.6% 1.1% 2.6% 4.9% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9% 2.7% 4.2% L % 2.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 2.6% 2.0% Romania H % 6.9% 6.0% 5.8% 5.0% 5.9% 6.4% 7.4% 7.1% 5.9% B 8.2% 3.8% -0.0% 5.3% 16% 5.1% 4.2% 4.2% 3.3% 4.7% 5.1% 6.1% 7.0% 4.3% L % 3.2% 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 4.4% 6.9% 2.6% Santa Maria FIR H % 5.8% 3.8% 3.3% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 3.8% 0.6% 4.0% B 4.5% 4.3% -3.9% 2.7% 2.9% 4.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.8% 0.5% 2.9% L % 3.0% 1.1% 0.9% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 0.4% 1.5% Serbia& Montenegro H % 4.6% 5.0% 4.5% 4.2% 4.7% 5.4% 4.9%.. B 5.9% 2.7% -4.1% -3.1% 5.9% 2.8% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 3.7% 4.1% 3.7%.. L % 0.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1%.. Slovakia H % 5.9% 6.0% 5.4% 5.0% 5.2% 5.4% 6.5% 5.4% 5.5% B 9.9% 3.1% -0.3% 4.4% 12% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 3.2% 3.9% 4.1% 5.0% 5.3% 3.7% L % 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 5.2% 1.9% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 58

60 IFR Movements (Growth) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Slovenia H % 6.6% 4.7% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.8% 4.9% -0.4% 4.7% B 4.8% 7.5% -2.0% -4.8% 5.7% 4.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6% -0.5% 3.3% L % 2.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% -0.6% 1.6% Spain H % 4.4% 4.6% 3.7% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 4.1% -1.3% 4.1% B 1.8% 3.6% -6.5% -1.9% 4.4% 2.8% 2.9% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% -1.4% 2.7% L % 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4% -1.5% 1.0% Sweden H % 4.9% 4.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.8% 1.2% 4.1% B 1.5% 9.1% -0.1% 0.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 1.2% 2.7% L % 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% Switzerland H % 4.6% 4.0% 3.1% 3.1% 2.2% 3.2% 3.1% -0.9% 3.4% B 0.7% 3.6% -1.7% -2.4% 1.2% 3.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% -1.0% 2.4% L % 1.3% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% -1.1% 0.8% Turkey H % 8.0% 6.6% 7.9% 5.4% 7.6% 9.1% 8.0%.. B 13% 7.6% 2.6% 7.1% 11% 6.0% 6.4% 6.7% 3.9% 7.7% 8.8% 7.2%.. L % 3.8% 4.3% 4.8% 4.6% 5.0% 4.8% 5.4%.. Ukraine H % 2.5% 8.5% 8.3% 7.9% 8.0% 7.7% 0.4%.. B 14% 5.5% 2.9% 6.0% -32% -0.1% 5.9% 6.2% 5.8% 6.2% 6.0% -1.4%.. L % -2.7% 3.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.1% 3.7% -3.2%.. UK H % 2.9% 3.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 0.4% 2.9% B -4.3% 2.8% -1.4% 0.6% 1.6% 1.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 0.3% 1.8% L % 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% ESRA02 H % 3.8% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6%.. B 0.7% 2.9% -2.6% -1.0% 2.3% 2.4% 2.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.8% 3.1% 2.6%.. L % 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.2%.. EU27 H % 3.6% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% -0.8% 3.5% B 0.2% 2.6% -3.0% -1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.2% -0.9% 2.2% L % 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% -1.0% 0.7% ESRA08 H % 3.8% 4.2% 3.6% 3.5% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% -0.5% 3.8% B 0.8% 3.1% -2.4% -1.1% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1% 2.5% -0.6% 2.5% L % 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 1.2% -0.6% 1.0% Baltic FAB H % 5.2% 7.3% 6.2% 6.2% 5.7% 4.4% 5.7% 3.2% 6.1% B 5.5% 9.2% 3.6% 1.0% 4.7% 3.0% 4.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.8% L % 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 2.0% 3.0% 1.6% BLUE MED FAB H % 3.4% 4.9% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 4.8% 4.3% 0.4% 4.2% B 3.6% -0.1% -2.4% -0.8% 4.1% 1.8% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.1% 0.3% 2.7% L % -0.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 0.2% 1.0% Danube FAB H % 5.3% 5.6% 5.6% 4.5% 5.8% 6.6% 6.3% 3.6% 5.4% B 6.7% 3.3% -1.5% 1.5% 11% 3.4% 4.1% 4.1% 2.9% 4.8% 5.4% 5.1% 3.5% 3.9% L % 1.5% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.4% 3.4% 2.3% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 59

61 IFR Movements (Growth) / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 FAB CE H % 4.2% 5.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.8% 4.7% 0.6% 4.6% B 3.2% 2.7% -2.6% -0.6% 4.7% 2.4% 3.4% 2.8% 2.6% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 0.5% 2.9% L % 0.5% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 0.4% 1.1% FABEC H % 3.4% 3.8% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% -0.4% 3.1% B 0.5% 4.4% -1.9% -1.2% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.0% -0.5% 2.0% L % 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.7% -0.6% 0.5% NEFAB H % 3.4% 3.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.3% 2.8% 3.3% 1.9% 3.3% B 2.1% 7.0% 1.3% 1.1% 3.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% L % 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% 0.2% South West FAB H % 4.4% 4.6% 3.7% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.2% -2.9% 4.1% B 1.8% 3.3% -9.8% -3.3% 4.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.9% -3.0% 2.6% L % 0.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% -3.1% 1.0% UK-Ireland FAB H % 3.1% 3.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 0.4% 2.9% B -4.3% 2.5% -1.5% 0.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 0.4% 1.9% L % 0.9% 0.7% 0.5% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% DK-SE FAB H % 4.1% 4.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.4% 0.6% 3.7% B 2.4% 5.7% -3.0% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 0.6% 2.4% L % 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.8% EU28 H % 3.6% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3% -0.8% 3.5% B 0.2% 2.6% -3.0% -1.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.2% -0.9% 2.2% L % 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 0.9% -1.0% 0.7% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 60

62 E. Two-year en-route service unit forecast by State Figure 51. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units STATFOR Forecast TSU 2014/2013 Forecast Growth 2015 STATFOR Forecast TSU 2015/2014 Forecast Growth 2014 States Forecast TSU 2014 STATFOR / States 2013 Actual Charging Area TSU EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,277,014 2,353, % 2,438, % 2,422, % ED Germany A 12,569,982 12,882, % 13,218, % 14,119, % LF France 17,899,945 18,609, % 19,161, % 19,045, % EG UK 9,754,933 9,986, % 10,158, % 11,034, % EH Netherlands 2,701,735 2,757, % 2,838, % 2,794, % EI Ireland 3,812,940 3,988, % 4,176, % 4,004, % LS Switzerland 1,384,957 1,417, % 1,466, % 1,558, % LP Lisbon FIR 2,876,753 3,056, % 3,163, % 3,018, % LO Austria 2,456,012 2,604, % 2,693, % 2,947, % LE Spain 8,447,044 8,757, % 8,932, % 9,857, % GC Canary Islands 1,515,812 1,523, % 1,578, % 1,795, % AZ Santa Maria FIR 4,021,257 4,164, % 4,358, % 4,359, % LG Greece 4,215,705 4,451, % 4,695, % 5,041, % LT Turkey 10,636,744 12,633, % 13,508, % 11,119, % LM Malta 735, , % 739, % 607, % LI Italy 8,117,393 8,405, % 8,622, % 9,070, % LC Cyprus 1,326,579 1,391, % 1,471, % 1,340, % LH Hungary 2,100,927 2,348, % 2,475, % 2,186, % EN Norway 2,050,929 2,205, % 2,304, % 1,842, % EK Denmark 1,523,724 1,543, % 1,581, % 1,605, % LJ Slovenia 411, , % 495, % 473, % LR Romania 3,751,523 4,169, % 4,422, % 4,008, % LK Czech Republic 2,374,021 2,438, % 2,547, % 2,499, % ES Sweden 3,208,684 3,305, % 3,452, % 3,393, % LZ Slovakia 984,989 1,069, % 1,100, % 1,017, % LD Croatia 1,694,578 1,736, % 1,813, % 1,811, % LB Bulgaria 2,057,979 2,684, % 2,897, % 2,117, % LW FYROM 177, , % 272, % 203, % LU Moldova 240, , % 136, % 257, % EF Finland 770, , % 818, % 940, % LA Albania 455, , % 521, % 475, % LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 654, , % 857, % 692, % UD Armenia 149, , % 169, % 155, % LY Belgrade B 1,638,512 1,734, % 1,780, % 1,685, % EP Poland 3,983,698 4,022, % 4,211, % 4,161, % EY Lithuania 450, , % 523, % 467, % EE Estonia 740, , % 816, %.. EV Latvia C 733, , % 802, % 765, % UK Ukraine D 4,931,009 3,056, % 2,639, %.. UG Georgia F 747, , % 764, % STATFOR Forecast TSU 2014/2013 Forecast Growth 2015 STATFOR Forecast TSU 2015/2014 Forecast Growth 2014 States Forecast TSU 2014 STATFOR / States 2013 Actual Charging Area TSU CRCO88 CRCO88 69,718,383 72,100, % 74,186, % 76,956, % ESRA02 ESRA02 116,097, ,845, % 127,541, % 126,490, % CRCO11 CRCO11 124,162, ,273, % 136,408, % 134,891, % SES29 RP1 Region 105,235, ,999, % 113,805, % 114,133, % RP2 Region RP2 Region 106,929, ,736, % 115,619, % 115,944, % TOTAL Total E 130,581, ,833, % 140,628, % 134,891, % E (A) Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic service units concerned for Estimated number for the coming years is per year. (B) The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Belgrade (Annex 1 of the Conditions of Application of the Route Charges System, Text approved by the enlarged Commission and entered into force on ). (C) Latvia has only joined EUROCONTROL member states in Before that date, only yearly data was available for the TSU (D) Ukraine and Estonia are not part of the CRCO but have asked STATFOR to produce an individual forecast. (E) Percentage corrected for missing state forecasts (only Total): it represents the difference between the total state forecast and total STATFOR forecast for all countries but Ukraine, Estonia and Georgia. (F) Georgia was forecasted for the first time in May14 Intermediate Forecast. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 61

63 Figure 52. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units Actual TSU 2014 STATFOR Forecast TSU 2015 STATFOR Forecast TSU 2013 Actual Exempted SU in % 2013 Actual Chargeable SU in % 2014 Chargeable SU Estimate 2015 Chargeable SU Estimate Charging Area EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,277,014 2,353,043 2,438, % 99.0% 2,328,500 2,413,000 ED Germany A 12,569,982 12,882,191 13,218, % 99.1% 12,764,100 13,097,600 LF France 17,899,945 18,609,073 19,161, % 99.1% 18,435,800 18,983,100 EG UK 9,754,933 9,986,551 10,158, % 98.6% 9,849,400 10,019,100 EH Netherlands 2,701,735 2,757,953 2,838, % 99.0% 2,729,800 2,809,900 EI Ireland 3,812,940 3,988,491 4,176, % 98.7% 3,935,600 4,121,400 LS Switzerland 1,384,957 1,417,413 1,466, % 99.7% 1,413,700 1,462,200 LP Lisbon FIR 2,876,753 3,056,786 3,163, % 99.0% 3,025,500 3,131,600 LO Austria 2,456,012 2,604,287 2,693, % 99.8% 2,598,200 2,686,900 LE Spain 8,447,044 8,757,202 8,932, % 99.1% 8,675,600 8,849,600 GC Canary Islands 1,515,812 1,523,624 1,578, % 99.2% 1,511,600 1,566,000 AZ Santa Maria FIR 4,021,257 4,164,011 4,358, % 97.9% 4,076,800 4,267,500 LG Greece 4,215,705 4,451,581 4,695, % 97.7% 4,348,800 4,587,100 LT Turkey 10,636,744 12,633,823 13,508, % 99.0% 12,506,300 13,371,800 LM Malta 735, , , % 96.5% 702, ,700 LI Italy 8,117,393 8,405,300 8,622, % 98.2% 8,255,100 8,468,000 LC Cyprus 1,326,579 1,391,682 1,471, % 98.6% 1,372,000 1,450,400 LH Hungary 2,100,927 2,348,191 2,475, % 98.3% 2,308,200 2,433,500 EN Norway 2,050,929 2,205,831 2,304, % 99.2% 2,187,500 2,285,300 EK Denmark 1,523,724 1,543,200 1,581, % 99.4% 1,534,300 1,572,700 LJ Slovenia 411, , , % 99.6% 457, ,600 LR Romania 3,751,523 4,169,360 4,422, % 98.2% 4,095,700 4,344,500 LK Czech Republic 2,374,021 2,438,047 2,547, % 97.8% 2,384,300 2,491,400 ES Sweden 3,208,684 3,305,307 3,452, % 99.6% 3,291,800 3,438,500 LZ Slovakia 984,989 1,069,851 1,100, % 98.4% 1,052,400 1,082,100 LD Croatia 1,694,578 1,736,786 1,813, % 99.8% 1,733,200 1,809,900 LB Bulgaria 2,057,979 2,684,740 2,897, % 99.0% 2,657,200 2,867,900 LW FYROM 177, , , % 99.9% 234, ,600 LU Moldova 240, , , % 99.9% 146, ,000 EF Finland 770, , , % 99.1% 786, ,100 LA Albania 455, , , % 99.7% 481, ,700 LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 654, , , % 99.9% 774, ,900 UD Armenia 149, , , % 99.9% 149, ,800 LY Belgrade 1,638,512 1,734,516 1,780, % 99.9% 1,732,800 1,779,200 EP Poland 3,983,698 4,022,192 4,211, % 99.5% 4,003,500 4,191,900 EY Lithuania 450, , , % 99.6% 487, ,600 EE Estonia 740, , , EV Latvia 733, , , % 99.5% 769, ,600 UK Ukraine 4,931,009 3,056,868 2,639, % 99.8% 3,052,100 2,634,900 UG Georgia 747, , , % 94.2% 676, ,600 CRCO88 CRCO88 69,718,383 72,100,625 74,186, % 99.0% 71,344,200 73,407,900 ESRA02 ESRA02 116,097, ,845, ,541, % 98.8% 121,398, ,038,400 CRCO11 CRCO11 124,162, ,273, ,408, % 98.9% 129,797, ,875,500 SES29 RP1Region 105,235, ,999, ,805, % 98.2% 107,974, ,710,700 RP2Region RP2Region 106,929, ,736, ,619, % 98.2% 109,708, ,521,000 TOTAL Total 130,581, ,833, ,628, % 98.3% 133,557, ,272,500 (A) Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic service units concerned for Estimated number for the coming years is per year. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 62

64 Total en-route service units (thousands) F. Seven-year en-route service units forecast per State The corresponding growth percentages are given in the next annex. Figure 53. Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands) per State / 2013 Total Growth RP1 2014/ 2011 Albania H %.. RP2 2019/ 2014 B %.. L %.. Armenia H %.. B %.. L %.. Austria H.... 2,618 2,764 2,907 3,027 3,150 3,272 3,422 39% 1.3% 4.6% Belgium/ Luxembourg B 2,449 2,519 2,469 2,456 2,604 2,693 2,777 2,850 2,928 3,014 3,102 26% 1.1% 3.0% L.... 2,590 2,621 2,645 2,673 2,708 2,743 2,781 13% 0.9% 1.2% H.... 2,361 2,477 2,586 2,677 2,778 2,880 2,975 31% 2.2% 4.1% B 2,115 2,212 2,232 2,277 2,353 2,439 2,510 2,572 2,643 2,716 2,791 23% 2.1% 2.9% L.... 2,345 2,394 2,421 2,448 2,484 2,522 2,563 13% 2.0% 1.5% Belgrade H.... 1,748 1,836 1,943 2,034 2,116 2,214 2,330 42%. Bosnia- Herzegovina B 1,819 1,831 1,719 1,639 1,735 1,781 1,848 1,907 1,967 2,039 2,113 29%. L.... 1,721 1,724 1,751 1,779 1,811 1,844 1,881 15%. H ,000 1,048 1,100 1,159 77%.. B ,001 1,038 59%.. L %.. Bulgaria H.... 2,699 2,969 3,187 3,379 3,524 3,733 3,984 94% 10.2% 6.7% Canary Islands B 1,840 2,019 2,020 2,058 2,685 2,898 3,048 3,183 3,310 3,474 3,642 77% 10.0% 5.3% L.... 2,670 2,824 2,900 2,974 3,057 3,141 3,231 57% 9.8% 3.3% H.... 1,532 1,623 1,683 1,736 1,798 1,863 1,929 27% -2.7% 4.0% B 1,540 1,666 1,599 1,516 1,524 1,578 1,605 1,628 1,657 1,688 1,719 13% -2.9% 2.1% L.... 1,515 1,534 1,531 1,533 1,539 1,545 1,552 2% -3.1% 0.4% Croatia H.... 1,746 1,864 1,968 2,060 2,148 2,246 2,358 39% 2.2% 5.2% B 1,451 1,634 1,679 1,695 1,737 1,814 1,876 1,933 1,992 2,060 2,131 26% 2.0% 3.5% L.... 1,727 1,763 1,783 1,808 1,837 1,867 1,901 12% 1.9% 1.6% Cyprus H.... 1,398 1,508 1,630 1,747 1,850 1,985 2,144 62% 1.2% 7.3% Czech Republic B 1,352 1,347 1,303 1,327 1,392 1,471 1,555 1,638 1,716 1,814 1,920 45% 1.1% 5.4% L.... 1,385 1,435 1,479 1,528 1,578 1,633 1,691 27% 0.9% 3.3% H.... 2,457 2,639 2,791 2,923 3,059 3,192 3,332 40% 2.2% 5.4% B 2,190 2,305 2,305 2,374 2,438 2,548 2,637 2,717 2,795 2,881 2,971 25% 1.9% 3.4% L.... 2,419 2,456 2,485 2,518 2,552 2,585 2,626 11% 1.6% 1.3% Denmark H.... 1,549 1,612 1,681 1,741 1,805 1,870 1,926 26% 1.8% 3.8% B 1,411 1,470 1,429 1,524 1,543 1,582 1,628 1,668 1,710 1,753 1,795 18% 1.6% 2.6% L.... 1,537 1,548 1,562 1,577 1,595 1,612 1,632 7% 1.5% 1.0% Estonia H ,038 1,094 48% 3.8% 5.6% B % 3.7% 3.6% L % 3.5% 1.7% FYROM H %.. B %.. L %.. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 63

65 Total en-route service units (thousands) / 2013 Total Growth RP1 2014/ 2011 Finland H ,016 32% -1.4% 4.2% RP2 2019/ 2014 B % -1.6% 2.5% L % -1.8% 0.9% France H ,658 19,427 20,225 20,849 21,530 22,200 22,823 28% 1.8% 3.5% B 16,637 17,691 17,515 17,900 18,609 19,161 19,654 20,028 20,468 20,947 21,424 20% 1.7% 2.4% L ,559 18,862 18,990 19,105 19,278 19,473 19,686 10% 1.6% 1.0% Georgia H ,035 1,124 1,229 64%.. B ,011 1,084 45%.. L %.. Germany H ,919 13,424 13,990 14,455 14,946 15,412 15,908 27% 0.5% 3.6% B 12,294 12,740 12,513 12,570 12,882 13,219 13,566 13,849 14,152 14,474 14,813 18% 0.4% 2.4% L ,844 12,997 13,092 13,189 13,310 13,431 13,586 8% 0.3% 0.9% Greece H.... 4,485 4,850 5,142 5,405 5,651 5,947 6,290 49% -0.5% 5.8% B 4,454 4,546 4,358 4,216 4,452 4,696 4,887 5,064 5,243 5,452 5,678 35% -0.7% 4.1% L.... 4,418 4,538 4,624 4,712 4,813 4,916 5,032 19% -0.9% 2.2% Hungary H.... 2,364 2,552 2,730 2,885 3,031 3,194 3,382 61% 4.6% 6.2% B 2,091 2,067 2,023 2,101 2,348 2,476 2,589 2,691 2,792 2,907 3,024 44% 4.3% 4.4% L.... 2,332 2,398 2,450 2,503 2,560 2,617 2,676 27% 4.1% 2.3% Ireland H.... 4,002 4,227 4,380 4,515 4,658 4,798 4,940 30% 2.0% 3.7% B 3,615 3,771 3,806 3,813 3,988 4,177 4,298 4,401 4,509 4,617 4,730 24% 1.9% 3.0% L.... 3,975 4,123 4,210 4,271 4,335 4,402 4,476 17% 1.8% 2.1% Italy H.... 8,451 8,829 9,286 9,660 10,041 10,448 10,879 34% 0.3% 4.3% B 8,621 8,370 8,139 8,117 8,405 8,622 8,891 9,114 9,355 9,618 9,886 22% 0.1% 2.7% L.... 8,359 8,405 8,476 8,551 8,647 8,747 8,850 9% -0.0% 0.9% Latvia H ,023 1,075 47% 3.4% 5.7% B % 3.3% 3.0% L % 3.1% 1.0% Lisbon FIR H.... 3,069 3,231 3,374 3,496 3,634 3,775 3,910 36% 2.8% 4.2% B 2,624 2,821 2,782 2,877 3,057 3,164 3,240 3,304 3,380 3,457 3,535 23% 2.7% 2.5% L.... 3,044 3,095 3,105 3,122 3,147 3,171 3,197 11% 2.6% 0.8% Lithuania H % 5.5% 6.5% B % 5.3% 4.1% L % 5.0% 2.0% Malta H ,057 1,149 56% 13.2% 7.5% B % 12.9% 5.2% L % 12.6% 2.7% Moldova H %.. B %.. L %.. Netherlands H.... 2,768 2,885 2,996 3,089 3,192 3,294 3,380 25% 2.2% 3.5% B 2,476 2,595 2,587 2,702 2,758 2,839 2,913 2,974 3,043 3,114 3,176 18% 2.0% 2.5% L.... 2,748 2,786 2,809 2,830 2,860 2,890 2,924 8% 1.9% 1.0% Norway H.... 2,215 2,346 2,445 2,537 2,628 2,730 2,824 38% 8.9% 4.3% B 1,583 1,713 1,846 2,051 2,206 2,304 2,375 2,438 2,500 2,567 2,634 28% 8.8% 3.1% L.... 2,197 2,260 2,286 2,311 2,337 2,366 2,393 17% 8.6% 1.5% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 64

66 Total en-route service units (thousands) / 2013 Total Growth RP1 2014/ 2011 Poland H.... 4,038 4,302 4,607 4,866 5,145 5,430 5,705 43% 3.2% 6.1% RP2 2019/ 2014 B 3,313 3,676 3,854 3,984 4,022 4,211 4,395 4,549 4,716 4,893 5,070 27% 3.0% 4.0% L.... 4,006 4,122 4,195 4,264 4,344 4,424 4,504 13% 2.9% 2.0% Romania H.... 4,194 4,515 4,849 5,142 5,399 5,722 6,089 62% 5.9% 6.4% Santa Maria FIR B 3,414 3,533 3,575 3,752 4,169 4,423 4,651 4,852 5,050 5,289 5,532 47% 5.7% 4.9% L.... 4,145 4,329 4,447 4,557 4,681 4,806 4,937 32% 5.5% 3.0% H.... 4,190 4,445 4,638 4,804 4,995 5,188 5,371 34% 1.7% 4.4% B 3,696 3,983 3,874 4,021 4,164 4,359 4,497 4,608 4,737 4,867 4,997 24% 1.5% 3.2% L.... 4,138 4,266 4,337 4,388 4,455 4,520 4,589 14% 1.3% 1.8% Slovakia H.... 1,076 1,131 1,215 1,288 1,362 1,442 1,530 55% 6.1% 6.0% B ,070 1,100 1,155 1,203 1,253 1,309 1,365 39% 5.9% 4.1% L.... 1,063 1,069 1,096 1,121 1,149 1,178 1,208 23% 5.7% 2.1% Slovenia H % 2.8% 5.7% B % 2.6% 4.2% L % 2.4% 2.4% Spain H.... 8,792 9,121 9,544 9,898 10,302 10,715 11,116 32% -1.1% 4.0% B 8,642 9,099 8,444 8,447 8,757 8,933 9,182 9,397 9,647 9,905 10,160 20% -1.3% 2.5% L.... 8,721 8,732 8,787 8,868 8,976 9,083 9,189 9% -1.4% 0.8% Sweden H.... 3,318 3,518 3,701 3,851 4,006 4,168 4,320 35% 1.4% 4.7% B 2,950 3,185 3,126 3,209 3,305 3,453 3,574 3,669 3,768 3,871 3,976 24% 1.2% 3.2% L.... 3,292 3,384 3,431 3,467 3,509 3,551 3,596 12% 1.1% 1.5% Switzerland H.... 1,423 1,495 1,558 1,607 1,659 1,704 1,756 27% -0.2% 3.7% B 1,409 1,431 1,399 1,385 1,417 1,466 1,505 1,536 1,572 1,609 1,647 19% -0.3% 2.6% L.... 1,411 1,435 1,446 1,457 1,472 1,487 1,503 9% -0.5% 1.0% Turkey H ,690 13,812 15,123 16,364 17,326 18,632 20,184 90%.. B 8,923 9,618 9,813 10,637 12,634 13,508 14,528 15,471 16,344 17,468 18,638 75%.. L ,578 13,203 13,830 14,430 15,071 15,728 16,447 55%.. UK H ,026 10,331 10,638 10,875 11,144 11,412 11,657 19% 0.6% 2.6% B 9,480 9,860 9,608 9,755 9,987 10,159 10,343 10,476 10,640 10,808 10,983 13% 0.4% 1.6% L.... 9,947 9,977 10,039 10,061 10,113 10,167 10,237 5% 0.3% 0.4% Ukraine H.... 3,087 2,782 3,011 3,201 3,399 3,629 3,880-21%.. B 4,188 4,465 4,588 4,931 3,057 2,639 2,785 2,901 3,029 3,178 3,334-32%.. L.... 3,027 2,496 2,565 2,621 2,695 2,772 2,853-42%.. ESRA02 H , , , , , , ,793 39%.. BLUE MED FAB B 110, , , , , , , , , , ,265 29%.. L , , , , , , ,154 16%.. H ,068 15,956 16,902 17,725 18,519 19,436 20,463 42% 0.7% 5.2% B 14,914 14,770 14,441 14,395 14,977 15,528 16,124 16,653 17,197 17,820 18,478 28% 0.5% 3.5% L ,884 15,088 15,319 15,557 15,832 16,119 16,426 14% 0.3% 1.6% Baltic FAB H.... 4,531 4,842 5,183 5,473 5,784 6,104 6,413 45% 3.4% 6.1% B 3,684 4,096 4,284 4,434 4,512 4,735 4,937 5,109 5,295 5,491 5,687 28% 3.3% 4.0% L.... 4,493 4,628 4,707 4,783 4,872 4,961 5,049 14% 3.1% 2.0% Danube FAB H.... 6,892 7,484 8,036 8,521 8,924 9,455 10,073 73% 7.5% 6.5% B 5,254 5,551 5,595 5,810 6,854 7,320 7,699 8,035 8,359 8,763 9,175 58% 7.3% 5.0% L.... 6,815 7,153 7,347 7,531 7,738 7,948 8,168 41% 7.1% 3.1% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 65

67 Total en-route service units (thousands) / 2013 Total Growth RP1 2014/ 2011 FAB CE H ,504 12,342 13,097 13,745 14,382 15,055 15,821 48% 2.9% 5.5% RP2 2019/ 2014 B 10,039 10,567 10,503 10,676 11,431 11,983 12,448 12,855 13,270 13,734 14,211 33% 2.7% 3.7% L ,358 11,618 11,800 11,986 12,194 12,402 12,631 18% 2.4% 1.8% FABEC H ,129 39,708 41,355 42,677 44,105 45,490 46,843 27% 1.3% 3.6% B 34,931 36,669 36,246 36,834 38,020 39,124 40,148 40,960 41,878 42,861 43,850 19% 1.2% 2.4% L ,907 38,474 38,759 39,028 39,404 39,803 40,262 9% 1.1% 1.0% NEFAB H.... 4,578 4,845 5,083 5,300 5,525 5,769 6,009 40% 5.0% 4.7% South West FAB UK-Ireland FAB B 3,583 3,952 4,068 4,296 4,557 4,742 4,888 5,018 5,154 5,301 5,448 27% 4.9% 3.1% L.... 4,536 4,637 4,683 4,732 4,788 4,849 4,912 14% 4.7% 1.3% H ,394 13,974 14,601 15,130 15,734 16,354 16,955 32% -0.5% 4.1% B 12,806 13,586 12,825 12,840 13,338 13,675 14,027 14,328 14,684 15,051 15,414 20% -0.6% 2.4% L ,280 13,361 13,423 13,523 13,662 13,800 13,938 9% -0.8% 0.8% H ,028 14,558 15,017 15,390 15,802 16,210 16,597 22% 1.0% 2.9% B 13,095 13,632 13,414 13,568 13,975 14,335 14,640 14,876 15,149 15,425 15,713 16% 0.8% 2.0% L ,922 14,100 14,249 14,332 14,447 14,568 14,713 8% 0.7% 0.9% DK-SE FAB H.... 4,868 5,130 5,382 5,592 5,811 6,037 6,246 32% 1.5% 4.4% B 4,361 4,655 4,555 4,732 4,849 5,034 5,202 5,337 5,478 5,624 5,772 22% 1.4% 3.0% L.... 4,829 4,932 4,993 5,044 5,104 5,163 5,227 10% 1.2% 1.3% CRCO88 H ,360 75,449 78,519 81,028 83,786 86,514 89,188 28% 0.9% 3.6% B 66,977 70,390 68,828 69,718 72,101 74,186 76,090 77,622 79,376 81,217 83,075 19% 0.8% 2.4% L ,837 72,821 73,413 73,944 74,677 75,434 76,283 9% 0.7% 1.0% CRCO11 H , , , , , , ,710 40% 2.3% 4.8% B 117, , , , , , , , , , ,869 29% 2.1% 3.4% L , , , , , , ,565 16% 2.0% 1.7% RP1Region H , , , , , , ,902 35% 1.7% 4.3% B 100, , , , , , , , , , ,578 24% 1.5% 2.9% L , , , , , , ,509 13% 1.4% 1.3% RP2Region H , , , , , , ,260 35% 1.7% 4.3% B 102, , , , , , , , , , ,710 24% 1.5% 2.9% L , , , , , , ,410 13% 1.4% 1.3% Total H , , , , , , ,912 38% 1.9% 4.8% B 122, , , , , , , , , , ,257 27% 1.7% 3.3% L , , , , , , ,220 14% 1.5% 1.6% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 66

68 G. Seven-year en-route growth in service units forecast per State This appendix presents the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than counts of service units. Figure 54. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State. TSU Annual growth / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Albania H % 9.9% 5.3% 4.3% 3.9% 4.3% 4.8% 5.6%.. B 13.9% 10.8% -1.0% 2.9% 6.1% 7.9% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 3.3% 3.4% 4.3%.. L % 5.7% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 2.7%.. Armenia H % 19.2% 9.8% 8.6% 7.9% 8.4% 8.4% 9.1%.. B 31.5% 16.1% -9.5% -2.9% 0.3% 13.6% 7.3% 6.5% 6.3% 6.6% 6.5% 6.7%.. L % 7.9% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.2%.. Austria H % 5.5% 5.2% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.6% 4.9% 1.3% 4.6% Belgium/ Luxembourg B 1.0% 2.9% -2.0% -0.5% 6.0% 3.4% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.4% 1.1% 3.0% L % 1.2% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 0.9% 1.2% H % 4.9% 4.4% 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.9% 2.2% 4.1% B 1.7% 4.6% 0.9% 2.0% 3.3% 3.6% 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 2.1% 2.9% L % 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% Belgrade H % 5.1% 5.8% 4.7% 4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 5.2%.. Bosnia- Herzegovina B 2.0% 0.6% -6.1% -4.7% 5.9% 2.7% 3.8% 3.2% 3.1% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7%.. L % 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0%.. H % 13.3% 7.2% 5.5% 4.7% 5.0% 5.3% 8.5%.. B 10.1% 12.5% -5.1% -3.8% 18.5% 10.6% 4.9% 3.7% 3.4% 3.7% 3.7% 6.8%.. L % 7.9% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 4.9%.. Bulgaria H % 10.0% 7.3% 6.0% 4.3% 5.9% 6.7% 9.9% 10.2% 6.7% Canary Islands B 2.3% 9.7% 0.1% 1.9% 30.5% 7.9% 5.2% 4.4% 4.0% 5.0% 4.8% 8.5% 10.0% 5.3% L % 5.8% 2.7% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 6.7% 9.8% 3.3% H % 5.9% 3.7% 3.1% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.5% -2.7% 4.0% B 3.2% 8.2% -4.0% -5.2% 0.5% 3.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% -2.9% 2.1% L % 1.3% -0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% -3.1% 0.4% Croatia H % 6.7% 5.6% 4.7% 4.3% 4.6% 5.0% 4.8% 2.2% 5.2% B 11.8% 12.6% 2.7% 0.9% 2.5% 4.4% 3.4% 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 2.0% 3.5% L % 2.1% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% Cyprus H % 7.8% 8.1% 7.2% 5.9% 7.3% 8.0% 7.1% 1.2% 7.3% Czech Republic B 6.2% -0.3% -3.3% 1.8% 4.9% 5.7% 5.7% 5.3% 4.8% 5.7% 5.8% 5.4% 1.1% 5.4% L % 3.6% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 0.9% 3.3% H % 7.4% 5.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.3% 4.4% 5.0% 2.2% 5.4% B 8.3% 5.2% -0.0% 3.0% 2.7% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 1.9% 3.4% L % 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% Denmark H % 4.1% 4.3% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.0% 3.4% 1.8% 3.8% B 3.8% 4.2% -2.8% 6.6% 1.3% 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 2.6% L % 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% Estonia H % 5.8% 6.2% 5.3% 5.5% 5.5% 5.3% 5.7% 3.8% 5.6% B -0.8% 12.3% 2.9% 2.3% 5.9% 4.1% 3.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 3.6% L % 2.3% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 2.3% 3.5% 1.7% FYROM H % 18.3% 5.9% 4.7% 4.5% 4.6% 5.2% 10.5%.. B 1.7% 5.9% -10.2% 1.9% 32.3% 16.1% 3.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 3.7% 9.0%.. L % 13.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 7.3%.. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 67

69 TSU Annual growth / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Finland H % 5.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% -1.4% 4.2% B 1.7% 12.6% -5.1% -2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 2.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% -1.6% 2.5% L % 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% -1.8% 0.9% France H % 4.1% 4.1% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 3.5% 1.8% 3.5% B -0.9% 6.3% -1.0% 2.2% 4.0% 3.0% 2.6% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 1.7% 2.4% L % 1.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% Georgia H % 10.0% 10.6% 8.9% 7.5% 8.7% 9.3% 7.4%.. B 19.4% 10.5% -2.5% 5.4% -3.9% 6.4% 8.0% 7.0% 6.6% 7.4% 7.2% 5.5%.. L % 2.6% 5.2% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 3.3%.. Germany H % 3.9% 4.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 0.5% 3.6% B 3.2% 3.6% -1.8% 0.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 0.4% 2.4% L % 1.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.9% Greece H % 8.1% 6.0% 5.1% 4.5% 5.2% 5.8% 5.9% -0.5% 5.8% B 7.6% 2.1% -4.2% -3.3% 5.6% 5.5% 4.1% 3.6% 3.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% -0.7% 4.1% L % 2.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% -0.9% 2.2% Hungary H % 8.0% 6.9% 5.7% 5.1% 5.4% 5.9% 7.0% 4.6% 6.2% B 2.6% -1.2% -2.1% 3.8% 11.8% 5.4% 4.6% 3.9% 3.8% 4.1% 4.0% 5.3% 4.3% 4.4% L % 2.8% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 3.5% 4.1% 2.3% Ireland H % 5.6% 3.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% 3.8% 2.0% 3.7% B 1.5% 4.3% 0.9% 0.2% 4.6% 4.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 3.1% 1.9% 3.0% L % 3.7% 2.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 2.3% 1.8% 2.1% Italy H % 4.5% 5.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% 0.3% 4.3% B 5.9% -2.9% -2.8% -0.3% 3.5% 2.6% 3.1% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 0.1% 2.7% L % 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% -0.0% 0.9% Latvia H % 6.4% 6.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.3% 5.0% 5.6% 3.4% 5.7% B 6.4% 10.8% 0.7% 3.8% 5.4% 3.8% 3.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% L % 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 3.1% 1.0% Lisbon FIR H % 5.3% 4.4% 3.6% 4.0% 3.9% 3.6% 4.5% 2.8% 4.2% B 4.9% 7.5% -1.4% 3.4% 6.3% 3.5% 2.4% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% L % 1.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 1.5% 2.6% 0.8% Lithuania H % 9.7% 6.5% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0% 6.7% 5.5% 6.5% B 8.7% 13.2% 2.3% 4.9% 8.7% 6.9% 3.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 4.6% 5.3% 4.1% L % 4.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 2.7% 5.0% 2.0% Malta H % 4.8% 9.6% 8.1% 7.1% 8.2% 8.8% 6.6% 13.2% 7.5% B 17.0% 3.9% 26.8% 14.7% -1.0% 1.6% 6.9% 5.9% 5.5% 6.1% 6.1% 4.4% 12.9% 5.2% L % -1.7% 4.1% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 2.1% 12.6% 2.7% Moldova H % -2.6% 8.1% 6.8% 6.7% 6.9% 6.7% -2.4%.. B 30.7% 7.4% 5.7% 16.8% -39.1% -7.0% 5.5% 4.8% 4.9% 5.1% 5.1% -4.5%.. L % -11.6% 3.0% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% -6.7%.. Netherlands H % 4.2% 3.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% 2.6% 3.3% 2.2% 3.5% B 2.1% 4.8% -0.3% 4.4% 2.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.0% 2.3% 2.0% 2.5% L % 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.1% 1.9% 1.0% Norway H % 5.9% 4.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.9% 3.4% 4.7% 8.9% 4.3% B 5.9% 8.2% 7.8% 11.1% 7.6% 4.5% 3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 3.6% 8.8% 3.1% L % 2.9% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 2.2% 8.6% 1.5% Poland H % 6.5% 7.1% 5.6% 5.7% 5.5% 5.1% 5.3% 3.2% 6.1% B 7.1% 11.0% 4.8% 3.4% 1.0% 4.7% 4.3% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.5% 3.0% 4.0% L % 2.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.9% 2.0% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 68

70 TSU Annual growth / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 Romania H % 7.7% 7.4% 6.0% 5.0% 6.0% 6.4% 7.2% 5.9% 6.4% Santa Maria FIR B 9.0% 3.5% 1.2% 4.9% 11.1% 6.1% 5.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.7% 4.6% 5.7% 5.7% 4.9% L % 4.4% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 4.0% 5.5% 3.0% H % 6.1% 4.4% 3.6% 4.0% 3.9% 3.5% 4.2% 1.7% 4.4% B 6.3% 7.8% -2.7% 3.8% 3.5% 4.7% 3.2% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 3.2% 1.5% 3.2% L % 3.1% 1.7% 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.3% 1.8% Slovakia H % 5.1% 7.4% 6.0% 5.7% 5.9% 6.1% 6.5% 6.1% 6.0% B 11.5% 5.2% 2.4% 6.9% 8.6% 2.8% 5.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.8% 5.9% 4.1% L % 0.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 3.0% 5.7% 2.1% Slovenia H % 10.2% 5.8% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.8% 6.5% 2.8% 5.7% B 10.3% 16.3% 0.1% -3.3% 11.6% 8.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2% 5.1% 2.6% 4.2% L % 5.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 3.5% 2.4% 2.4% Spain H % 3.7% 4.6% 3.7% 4.1% 4.0% 3.7% 4.0% -1.1% 4.0% B 3.4% 5.3% -7.2% 0.0% 3.7% 2.0% 2.8% 2.3% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% -1.3% 2.5% L % 0.1% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% -1.4% 0.8% Sweden H % 6.0% 5.2% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 4.3% 1.4% 4.7% B 1.5% 7.9% -1.8% 2.6% 3.0% 4.5% 3.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 3.1% 1.2% 3.2% L % 2.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.1% 1.5% Switzerland H % 5.0% 4.2% 3.2% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% 3.4% -0.2% 3.7% B 0.9% 1.5% -2.3% -1.0% 2.3% 3.4% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% -0.3% 2.6% L % 1.7% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% -0.5% 1.0% Turkey H % 8.8% 9.5% 8.2% 5.9% 7.5% 8.3% 9.6%.. B 10.4% 7.8% 2.0% 8.4% 18.8% 6.9% 7.6% 6.5% 5.6% 6.9% 6.7% 8.3%.. L % 5.0% 4.7% 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 6.4%.. UK H % 3.0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.6% 0.6% 2.6% B -4.4% 4.0% -2.6% 1.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 0.4% 1.6% L % 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% Ukraine H % -9.9% 8.2% 6.3% 6.2% 6.8% 6.9% -3.4%.. B 12.4% 6.6% 2.8% 7.5% -38.0% -13.7% 5.5% 4.2% 4.4% 4.9% 4.9% -5.4%.. L % -17.5% 2.8% 2.2% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% -7.5%.. ESRA02 H % 5.5% 5.3% 4.3% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.9%.. BLUE MED FAB B 3.3% 4.7% -1.4% 2.2% 5.8% 3.8% 3.5% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7%.. L % 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2%.. H % 5.9% 5.9% 4.9% 4.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.2% 0.7% 5.2% B 6.7% -1.0% -2.2% -0.3% 4.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 0.5% 3.5% L % 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 0.3% 1.6% Baltic FAB H % 6.9% 7.0% 5.6% 5.7% 5.5% 5.1% 5.4% 3.4% 6.1% B 7.3% 11.2% 4.6% 3.5% 1.7% 4.9% 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.3% 4.0% L % 3.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 3.1% 2.0% Danube FAB H % 8.6% 7.4% 6.0% 4.7% 6.0% 6.5% 8.2% 7.5% 6.5% B 6.5% 5.7% 0.8% 3.8% 18.0% 6.8% 5.2% 4.4% 4.0% 4.8% 4.7% 6.7% 7.3% 5.0% L % 5.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 5.0% 7.1% 3.1% FAB CE H % 7.3% 6.1% 4.9% 4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.8% 2.9% 5.5% B 6.1% 5.3% -0.6% 1.6% 7.1% 4.8% 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5% 4.2% 2.7% 3.7% L % 2.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 1.8% FABEC H % 4.1% 4.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 3.5% 1.3% 3.6% B 1.0% 5.0% -1.2% 1.6% 3.2% 2.9% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 1.2% 2.4% L % 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 69

71 TSU Annual growth / 2013 RP1 2014/2011 RP2 2019/2014 NEFAB H % 5.8% 4.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.2% 4.9% 5.0% 4.7% South FAB UK-Ireland FAB B 3.9% 10.3% 2.9% 5.6% 6.1% 4.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.5% 4.9% 3.1% L % 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.9% 4.7% 1.3% West H % 4.3% 4.5% 3.6% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.1% -0.5% 4.1% B 3.7% 6.1% -5.6% 0.1% 3.9% 2.5% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.6% -0.6% 2.4% L % 0.6% 0.5% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% -0.8% 0.8% H % 3.8% 3.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 2.9% 1.0% 2.9% B -2.8% 4.1% -1.6% 1.1% 3.0% 2.6% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 0.8% 2.0% L % 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9% DK-SE FAB H % 5.4% 4.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.5% 4.0% 1.5% 4.4% B 2.2% 6.7% -2.1% 3.9% 2.5% 3.8% 3.3% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.9% 1.4% 3.0% L % 2.1% 1.2% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.3% CRCO88 H % 4.3% 4.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 3.6% 0.9% 3.6% B 1.0% 5.1% -2.2% 1.3% 3.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 0.8% 2.4% L % 1.4% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% CRCO11 H % 5.6% 5.4% 4.4% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4% 4.9% 2.3% 4.8% B 3.5% 5.0% -1.3% 2.1% 5.7% 3.9% 3.6% 3.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 2.1% 3.4% L % 2.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 2.0% 1.7% RP1Region H % 5.1% 4.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 1.7% 4.3% B 2.6% 4.5% -1.5% 1.6% 4.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 1.5% 2.9% L % 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% RP2Region H % 5.1% 4.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 4.4% 1.7% 4.3% B 2.7% 4.6% -1.4% 1.6% 4.5% 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.1% 1.5% 2.9% L % 1.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% Total H % 5.3% 5.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.4% 4.5% 4.7% 1.9% 4.8% B 3.8% 5.1% -1.2% 2.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 1.7% 3.3% L % 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.5% 1.6% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 70

72 H. Terminal Navigation Service Unit Forecast This appendix presents the forecast of the terminal navigation service units based on the terminal charging zones definition for RP2 and the use of a 0.7 exponent in the terminal service unit definition (to be used as of 2015). Any user of this terminal navigation service units forecast should be aware that the definitions of charging zones might change in the course of the forthcoming months as States and FABs are reviewing their performance plans for RP2. Note that compared to the February forecast, the historical values up to 2013 have been reconstructed based on CRCO flight information with the TCZ definitions and the exponent used to compute the TNSU as applicable by states according to their RP1 performance plans. In order to keep consistency in growth in the transition between RP1 and RP2, the TNSU definition per State was changed from RP1 definition according to the footnotes that can be found in the table of Figure 55. Figure 55. Exponents for Weight Coefficient and Number of Airport used in TNSU forecast for RP1 and RP2. State Weight Coefficient Exponents Number of Airports / RP / RP2 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Belgium: exponents refer only to EB_TCZ_EBBR, which was the only one original TCZ in RP1 ; the 4 other TCZs were added to the history with an exponent of Croatia: only part of the SES since 2014 but a history has been reconstructed with 0.7 coefficient 17 Cyprus: history with 0.7 has been reconstructed from Italy: RP1 originally composed by 1 TCZ with 47 airports. RP1 modified to 2 TCZs with a total of 5 airports (same as RP2) with 0.7 exponent as from Malta: history reconstructed with 0.7 exponent from Slovakia: only 1 airport considered instead of the original 6 in the RP1. History of 0.7 rebuild from 2010 EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 71

73 State Weight Coefficient Exponents Number of Airports / RP / RP2 Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland UK Figure 56. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands) per Terminal Charging Zone. 23 Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands) RP /2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 Austria LO_TCZ Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW Belgium EB_TCZ_EBBR Belgium EB_TCZ_EBCI Belgium EB_TCZ_EBLG Belgium EB_TCZ_EBOS Bulgaria LB_TCZ Croatia LD_TCZ H % 5.4% B % 3.3% L % 1.4% H % 3.2% B % 2.3% L % 0.8% H % 4.0% B % 3.0% L % 1.3% H % 6.3% B % 4.4% L % 2.3% H % 7.7% B % 6.2% L % 3.7% H % 5.7% B % 4.4% L % 2.5% H % 8.5% B % 5.8% L % 3.1% H % 3.8% B % 2.5% L % 1.2% 21 Spain: only 5 airports considered for RP1, instead of the original 12. The original exponent of 0.9 of RP1 was kept 22 UK: RP1 originally with 2 TCZs with a total of 13 airports. Modified to equal RP2 structure with 1 TCZ (EG_TCZ_B) composed by 9 airports 23 Forecasts for small TCZs with only one airport are published with high risk EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 72

74 23 Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands) RP /2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 Cyprus LC_TCZ Czech Republic LK_TCZ Denmark EK_TCZ Estonia EE_TCZ Finland EF_TCZ France LF_TCZ Germany ED_TCZ Greece LG_TCZ Hungary LH_TCZ Ireland EI_TCZ Italy LI_TCZ_1 Italy LI_TCZ_2 Latvia EV_TCZ H % 7.5% B % 4.0% L % 1.4% H % 10.2% B % 5.7% L % 2.7% H % 3.5% B % 2.2% L % 0.6% H % 10.6% B % 4.6% L % 4.0% H % 4.4% B % 2.3% L % 0.5% H % 2.9% B % 1.9% L % 0.3% H % 3.5% B % 2.2% L % 1.0% H % 2.0% B % 1.3% L % -0.0% H % 8.1% B % 4.6% L % 1.6% H % 3.9% B % 3.0% L % 2.0% H % 3.3% B % 1.7% L % -0.3% H % 4.5% B % 2.7% L % 0.7% H % 8.5% B % 2.1% L % -1.2% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 73

75 23 Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands) RP /2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 Lithuania EY_TCZ Luxembourg EL_TCZ Malta LM_TCZ Netherlands EH_TCZ Norway EN_TCZ Poland EP_TCZ Portugal LP_TCZ Romania LR_TCZ Slovakia LZ_TCZ Slovenia LJ_TCZ Spain LE_TCZ Sweden ES_TCZ_A Switzerland LS_TCZ H % 10.1% B % 6.8% L % 4.3% H % 5.3% B % 3.8% L % 2.1% H % B % L % H % 3.1% B % 3.0% L % 1.2% H % 3.3% B % 2.7% L % 1.1% H % 9.8% B % 5.9% L % 2.7% H % 4.9% B % 2.8% L % 0.9% H % 6.8% B % 4.7% L % 2.4% H % 8.7% B % 5.8% L % 3.2% H % 6.8% B % 3.5% L % 0.8% H % 4.1% B % 2.8% L % 1.3% H % 4.6% B % 3.2% L % 1.7% H % 4.3% B % 3.7% L % 1.8% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 74

76 23 Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands) RP /2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 UK EG_TCZ_B % 3.0% % 2.0% % 1.2% RP2 Region H % 4.0% B % 2.7% L % 1.1% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 75

77 Figure 57. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per Terminal Charging Zone. This appendix presents the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than counts of terminal navigation service units. Terminal Navigation Service Units (growth) RP /2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 Austria LO_TCZ Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW Belgium EB_TCZ_EBBR Belgium EB_TCZ_EBCI Belgium EB_TCZ_EBLG Belgium EB_TCZ_EBOS Bulgaria LB_TCZ Croatia LD_TCZ Cyprus LC_TCZ Czech Republic LK_TCZ Denmark EK_TCZ Estonia EE_TCZ H % 6.1% 5.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.4% 6.7% -1.1% 5.4% B. 1.9% -2.7% -2.4% 1.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% -1.2% 3.3% L % 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 1.7% 1.4% 2.1% -1.3% 1.4% H % 2.6% 5.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 1.8% 3.2% B % -1.5% 18% 0.8% 3.0% 2.1% 3.4% 1.9% 2.3% 1.6% 2.3% L % -1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% H % 3.1% 4.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.2% 4.5% -3.9% 4.0% B % -5.6% -1.6% 1.8% 3.5% 2.9% 3.4% 3.3% 3.6% -4.0% 3.0% L % 0.4% 1.2% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% -4.1% 1.3% H % 5.0% 7.3% 5.9% 6.6% 6.3% 6.2% 10.1% 6.3% B.. 12% 8.3% 10% 3.1% 4.8% 4.4% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 10.0% 4.4% L % 1.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 9.8% 2.3% H % 6.7% 7.8% 5.5% 8.0% 11% 6.3% -3.8% 7.7% B.. -14% -2.6% 6.0% 4.9% 5.7% 5.1% 4.4% 11% 5.2% -3.8% 6.2% L % 3.1% 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% 3.8% 8.2% -3.7% 3.7% H % 4.7% 6.5% 4.9% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.1% 5.7% B % -7.5% 28% 3.0% 4.5% 4.0% 6.2% 4.4% 4.5% 5.0% 4.4% L % 1.5% 2.3% 2.4% 3.2% 2.9% 3.8% 4.9% 2.5% H % 6.2% 10% 8.9% 9.1% 8.5% 8.4% 3.5% 8.5% B. 4.2% 0.9% 0.4% 8.9% 3.7% 5.1% 7.0% 6.1% 7.2% 6.2% 3.4% 5.8% L % 1.2% 2.6% 3.3% 3.9% 4.5% 5.3% 3.2% 3.1% H % 5.6% 1.1% 5.0% 4.0% 3.1% 3.7% 1.3% 3.8% B. 3.2% -4.5% -1.1% 9.6% 3.8% -0.1% 2.8% 4.2% 1.8% 2.8% 1.2% 2.5% L % 0.7% 0.9% -0.7% 1.6% 3.3% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% H % 6.6% 7.4% 6.7% 9.1% 7.7% 9.2% -0.2% 7.5% B % -8.3% 11% 3.5% 3.8% 3.0% 5.2% 4.8% 6.5% -0.3% 4.0% L % 0.0% 0.7% 1.5% 2.2% 2.8% 3.5% -0.5% 1.4% H % 7.6% 12% 11% 9.0% 12% 10% -3.4% 10.2% B. 2.0% -11% -2.1% 2.7% 4.6% 6.5% 6.0% 5.4% 6.0% 5.6% -3.5% 5.7% L % 1.7% 2.7% 3.1% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7% -3.7% 2.7% H % 4.4% 3.9% 2.5% 3.2% 3.5% 2.9% 0.8% 3.5% B. 5.0% -1.1% 3.1% 0.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.0% 1.4% 2.1% 1.9% 0.8% 2.2% L % 1.3% -0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.6% H % 7.7% 7.5% 7.9% 15% 16% 8.4% -2.3% 10.6% B. 24% 18% -23% 2.0% 2.4% 7.2% 5.2% 3.3% 5.0% 18% -2.4% 4.6% L % -0.4% 2.7% 12% 3.5% 2.6% 1.5% -2.8% 4.0% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 76

78 Terminal Navigation Service Units (growth) RP /2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 Finland EF_TCZ France LF_TCZ Germany ED_TCZ Greece LG_TCZ Hungary LH_TCZ Ireland EI_TCZ Italy LI_TCZ_1 Italy LI_TCZ_2 Latvia EV_TCZ Lithuania EY_TCZ Luxembourg EL_TCZ Malta LM_TCZ Netherlands EH_TCZ H % 4.8% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% 4.4% 3.4% -2.3% 4.4% B. 15% -8.9% 0.4% 1.8% 2.6% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% -2.4% 2.3% L % 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% -2.5% 0.5% H % 1.9% 3.9% 3.0% 2.9% 2.6% 3.0% -3.6% 2.9% B. 4.7% -4.6% -0.2% -6.1% 0.8% 2.7% 1.6% 1.8% 2.7% 2.7% -3.7% 1.9% L % -0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% -3.7% 0.3% H % 4.9% 3.5% 2.7% 3.5% 2.9% 3.6% -0.0% 3.5% B. 4.5% -1.2% -1.0% 2.1% 3.7% 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.8% -0.1% 2.2% L % 2.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 1.2% 1.6% -0.1% 1.0% H % 0.5% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.6% 3.1% -4.9% 2.0% B. -7.1% -14% -10% 11% -0.6% 1.8% 1.4% 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% -5.0% 1.3% L % -3.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% -5.0% -0.0% H % 7.3% 9.9% 8.2% 8.2% 7.0% 8.5% -3.6% 8.1% B. 5.4% -16% -0.9% 7.0% 5.0% 4.3% 4.2% 5.3% 4.0% 5.6% -3.8% 4.6% L % 2.3% 0.7% 1.1% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% -4.0% 1.6% H % 3.0% 3.0% 3.8% 5.4% 4.1% 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% B. -1.2% -4.7% 5.5% -0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 3.8% 3.4% 3.8% 0.0% 3.0% L % 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0% 2.7% 3.3% 0.0% 2.0% H % 2.0% 4.5% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% -1.9% 3.3% B. -0.5% -3.6% -3.5% 1.3% 0.7% 2.3% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% -2.0% 1.7% L % -1.5% -0.1% -0.2% 0.2% -0.1% 0.1% -2.1% -0.3% H % 3.1% 5.7% 4.3% 4.7% 4.7% 5.2% -1.2% 4.5% B. 3.7% -2.2% -3.7% 1.9% 1.4% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1% -1.3% 2.7% L % -0.8% 0.8% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% -1.4% 0.7% H % 6.9% 10% 7.0% 8.3% 10% 6.8% -0.1% 8.5% B % 2.9% -2.2% 1.5% 3.3% 1.8% 2.3% 1.5% 2.2% -0.6% 2.1% L % -3.2% -0.6% -1.5% -0.7% -0.1% -0.3% -0.5% -1.2% H % 9.9% 12% 9.7% 11% 8.8% 8.6% 9.1% 10.1% B. 6.4% 8.0% 9.5% 9.3% 6.9% 7.0% 6.5% 7.5% 6.1% 6.3% 9.0% 6.8% L % 4.2% 3.7% 3.1% 4.7% 5.6% 2.6% 8.8% 4.3% H % 3.6% 5.9% 5.0% 6.7% 5.4% 5.8% 6.0% 5.3% B. 2.1% -1.0% 6.8% 12% 2.1% 3.8% 4.3% 4.8% 4.1% 4.2% 5.9% 3.8% L % 0.3% 2.1% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 5.8% 2.1% H % 7.6% 8.7% 7.0% 7.5% 7.0% 7.3%. 7.6% B % 11% 4.6% 4.6% 4.2% 4.5% 4.3% 4.7%. 4.5% L % 2.1% 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 2.2% 2.1%. 1.8% H % 3.5% 2.9% 3.3% 3.2% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 3.1% B. 7.3% 0.0% 1.7% -1.2% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.2% 3.0% L % 2.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.5% 1.1% 1.5% 0.2% 1.2% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 77

79 Terminal Navigation Service Units (growth) RP /2011 RP2 2019/ 2014 Norway EN_TCZ Poland EP_TCZ Portugal LP_TCZ Romania LR_TCZ Slovakia LZ_TCZ Slovenia LJ_TCZ Spain LE_TCZ Sweden ES_TCZ_A Switzerland LS_TCZ UK EG_TCZ_B H % 4.9% 3.9% 1.1% 3.2% 3.6% 1.8% 3.3% 3.3% B. 7.5% 5.6% 5.4% -1.1% 3.7% 3.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.7% 3.3% 2.7% L % 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 0.8% 1.4% 3.2% 1.1% H % 9.0% 11% 9.5% 11% 8.6% 4.4% 6.2% 9.8% B. 3.3% 11% 0.7% 6.5% 6.2% 5.7% 6.0% 5.8% 5.7% 5.3% 6.1% 5.9% L % 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 5.9% 2.7% H % 6.4% 5.1% 4.3% 4.1% 4.4% 4.6% 3.0% 4.9% B. 1.7% -1.0% 2.6% 7.2% 4.2% 2.9% 1.9% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8% L % 2.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7% 2.7% 0.9% H % 6.1% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 6.2% 7.0% 10.6% 6.8% B. -4.9% 22% 4.8% 6.0% 3.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 5.1% 10.5% 4.7% L % 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 3.2% 10.4% 2.4% H % 9.3% 11% 7.6% 7.6% 8.5% 8.0% -3.8% 8.7% B. -3.3% -12% -1.7% 5.2% 6.0% 6.7% 5.2% 5.9% 5.1% 5.7% -4.0% 5.8% L % 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% -4.2% 3.2% H % 3.5% 6.9% 6.8% 11% 6.0% 9.9% -4.2% 6.8% B. 0.4% -11% 1.4% -3.3% 1.0% 3.6% 3.9% 4.4% 4.7% 8.1% -4.4% 3.5% L % -2.2% 0.9% 0.4% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% -4.5% 0.8% H % 4.5% 4.8% 2.8% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% -4.9% 4.1% B. 4.1% -6.6% -3.5% -6.8% 3.0% 3.3% 2.5% 3.1% 2.1% 2.8% -5.0% 2.8% L % 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3% -5.1% 1.3% H % 5.3% 4.9% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 4.3% 3.4% 4.6% B. 13% -0.2% 5.7% 4.6% 4.0% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 2.3% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2% L % 2.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 3.2% 1.7% H % 4.4% 6.5% 4.6% 4.7% 1.6% 5.1% 1.3% 4.3% B. 6.9% 1.2% -0.9% 3.0% 3.1% 4.6% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.5% 1.1% 3.7% L % 1.1% 1.8% 1.7% 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.0% 1.8% H % 2.8% 3.7% 2.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 1.8% 3.0% B. 3.9% -0.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 1.7% 2.0% L % 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% RP2 Region H % 4.0% 4.6% 3.6% 4.2% 3.8% 3.9% -0.4% 4.0% B. 8.6% -1.9% -0.2% 0.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% -0.4% 2.7% L % 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% -0.5% 1.1% EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 78

80 I. References 1 EUROCONTROL, Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: , STATFOR Doc522, February STATFOR Interactive Dashboard accessible at 3 Methods of the STATFOR Seven-Year Forecast, STATFOR Document 518, Draft v0.5, January GDP Elasticities for the STATFOR Forecast, STATFOR Document 499, Draft v0.4, November Industry Monitor Issue 165 accessible at September 2014 European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) 2014 This document is published by EUROCONTROL in the interests of exchange of information. It may be copied in whole or in part, providing that the copyright notice and disclaimer are included. The information contained in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. EUROCONTROL makes no warranty, either implied or express, for the information contained in this document, neither does it assume any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or usefulness of this information. For further information please contact, STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service statfor.info@eurocontrol.int STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service is ISO 9001:2008 certified. EUROCONTROL/NMD/STATFOR Page 79

81 For further information, please contact: STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service EUROCONTROL The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL.