AFRICA REGIONAL RISK SNAPSHOT SEPARATING FACT FROM FICTION. Dr Robert Besseling, Executive Director, EXX Africa
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2 AFRICA REGIONAL RISK SNAPSHOT SEPARATING FACT FROM FICTION Dr Robert Besseling, Executive Director, EXX Africa
3 Are we witnessing a resurgence of Africa s large economies this year?
4 Nigeria South Africa Egypt Algeria Angola Sudan Morocco Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania DRC Tunisia Ivory Coast Libya Ghana Cameroon Uganda Zambia Botswana Gabon Mauritius Mozambique Burkina Faso Mali Namibia Zimbabwe Senegal Equatorial Guinea Chad Madagascar Benin Rwanda Congo Republic Guinea Niger Eritrea Malawi Togo Mauritania Swaziland Sierra Leone Burundi South Sudan Liberia Djibouti Lesotho Central African Rep Cape Verde Seychelles Guinea-Bissau Gambia Comoros São Tomé & Príncipe Africa: Size of the Economy (Nominal GDP: $,millions) 450, , , , , , , , , , Sources: AFED & AfDB
5 Polling Question 1 - Will we witness a resurgence of Africa s large economies this year? 1. Yes 2. No 3. I don t know
6 Country Focus South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya
7 South Africa How long can the Ramaphosa Honeymoon last?
8 Polling Question 2 - To what extent are you feeling more confident about South Africa s outlook since the leadership change in February? 1. Very confident, I will now sign any deal that comes across my desk 2. Moderately more confident 3. No change 4. Still downbeat and uncertain
9 South Africa: The limits of Ramaphoria Business confidence is on the up 3.0 South Africa Real GDP Growth (%) Tough but hopeful budget SA Reserve Bank IMF, WEO forecast 2.2 SOE reform is a key priority Further credit downgrades loom Gov forecast elections may pivot policy Land reform as a political football Sources: AFED, Local Sources & IMF, WEO Oct 17
10 Land expropriation as a political football 1. Land reform is not aimed at white or foreign-owned commercial agricultural holdings. Populist rhetoric targeting such farms is politically expedient, but harmful to South Africa s international investment reputation 2. State expropriation of land without compensation is unconstitutional, illegal, and in breach of multiple multilateral treaties. 3. ANC policy of land reform is aimed at undercutting the political campaign of the radical leftist EFF opposition ahead of the 2019 national elections. 4. The real expropriation target is land ownership by traditional authorities, particularly the Ingonyama Trust of Zulu King Goodwill Zwelithini, which owns 60% of KwaZulu-Natal province
11 Security Incidents In South Africa
12 Nigeria Elections, debt, and the oil sector
13 Nigeria shifts into election mode Is President Buhari the man to beat in 2019? Government inertia and stalled economic reform What is needed to ensure economic recovery? Unifying multiple currency exchange rates Economic Growth and Recovery Plan Oil industry reform and Niger Delta compromise The Nigerian economy s tentative recovery may be frustrated by electioneering
14 Polling Question 3 - Should Nigeria continue to raise debt to finance its gaping budget deficit? 1. Yes, both more Eurobonds and local currency debt issuance 2. Yes, but only if the oil price continues to recover 3. No, Nigeria has already piled up too much debt 4. I have no opinion
15 Nigeria Growth and Public Debt: Nigeria Real GDP Growth (%) 6.3 IMF Forecast Sources: AFED & IMF, WEO Oct Nigeria Total Public Debt (% of GDP) IMF Forecast Sources: AFED & IMF, WEO Oct 17
16 Total External Debt (% of GDP): Nigeria, South Africa & Mozambique Sources: AFED & IMF Nigeria South Africa Mozambique
17 Key sectors to watch out for in 2018 Oil & Gas Development Projects in Niger Delta, including refineries Military & Defence after sign-off of US procurement deal Massive infrastructure boost commits new transport, water, and power projects Nigeria has the most valuable intra-regional trade, although it is dominated by crude oil exports.
18 Security Incidents In Nigeria
19 3. Angola A New Dawn for Sonangol and the banks
20 The implications of Angola s political transition The political transition has triggered the most significant shift in influence dynamics since the 1970s, while taking place in an increasingly tense socio-economic environment.
21 The battle over Sonangol & the banking sector The first political battle of the transition will be over the future of the struggling state oil company and extensive oil sector restructuring plans. This contest will determine the new government s policy on the oil sector, transparency, and the potential return of the IMF.
22 Kenya Moving beyond the 2017 elections and finding new avenues for growth
23 Polling Question 5 - How badly tarnished was Kenya s investment reputation by last year s elections and subsequent political crisis? 1. Disastrous, it will take years to recover 2. It was a bad year, but things will come right in It s Kenya, what did you expect? It makes no difference.
24 Kenya Growth and Public Debt: Kenya Real GDP Growth (%) IMF Forecast Sources: AFED & IMF, WEO Oct Kenya Total Public Debt (% of GDP) IMF Forecast Sources: AFED & IMF, WEO Oct17
25 Exchange Rates: Kenyan Shilling to US Dollar Kenyan Shilling to 1 US Dollar Source: AFED
26 Key sectors to watch in 2018 Banking Growing pressure to uncap interest rates Infrastructure will be part of the Kenyatta Legacy Kenya & Brexit will there be new opportunities? The oil game changer oil and pipeline construction
27 Kenya: Already looking towards 2022
28 Security Incidents In Kenya
29 Real GDP Growth: Aggregates and Regions (year-on-year % growth) (f) 2018 (f) Regional Real GDP Growth Africa (f) 2018 (f) Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa with Sudan Sources: AFED & AEO East Africa West Africa North Africa Central Africa Southern Africa Sources: AFED & AEO
30 Key trade corridors: East & Southern Africa 187 Uganda Kenya has the most diverse intra-regional flows in Africa Kenya DRC Rwanda Kenya exports industrial raw materials, food, and consumer goods to its neighbours. Tanzania Kenya imports imports tobacco and some food, for which it acts as a conduit for exports of commodities to world markets. Source: Ecobank Research Zambia 471 Trade flows, USD millions,
31 Which African countries face the highest political risk?
32 Heaviest concentration of security incidents around Goma, North Kivu. High density of security incidents remains focused on the Northeast. High density population centres also reflect higher concentration of incidents Kinshasa, Lubumbashi, Kisangani, etc. Uptick in violence around Mbuyi-Mayi and Kananga.
33 Scenario Analysis for DRC in One Year Outlook SCENARIO ONE SCENARIO TWO SCENARIO THREE Elections take place in December 2018 Probability: 60% Commercial Impact: Kabila third term improves political certainty and supports economic recovery as sanctions are lifted and fresh FDI is encouraged Elections are yet again postponed beyond 2018 Probability: 30% Commercial Impact: Kabila fears an opposition win and delays the vote, thus extending the status quo of political uncertainty, economic weakness, and sanctions Unconstitutional transfer of power before the vote Probability: 10% Commercial Impact: Socio-economic protests and political unrest force the military and/or regional countries to intervene, possibly triggering further conflict.
34 EXX Africa Risk Map Colour-coded risk map is based on quantitative and forward-looking risk analysis and a proprietary scoring system. For more information on scoring methodology visit RISK RATING SCALE Severe High Elevated Moderate Low
35 Mozambique: Still in limbo with no debt deal Structural indicators improving Mozambique Real GDP Growth (%) Prospect of peace with RENAMO Gas sector development on track Mozambique NIS IMF, WEO forecast Gov forecast BUT Unsustainable debt outlook Little confidence from donors Sources: AFED, Local Sources & IMF, WEO Oct 17
36 Security risk along Mozambique railways and pipelines
37 Zambia Growth and Public Debt: Zambia Real GDP Growth (%) 7.6 IMF Forecast Sources: AFED & IMF, WEO Oct Zambia Total Public Debt (% of GDP) IMF Forecast Sources: AFED & IMF, WEO Oct 17
38 Zambia s lost opportunity Perceptions of government authoritarianism, arbitrary lawsuits in the copper mining sector, and intensifying political intrigue are likely to cast a dark cloud over upcoming negotiations with the IMF Growing political risk may undermine Zambia s chance of economic recovery on the back of rising global copper prices.
39 The Rise of Africa s New Nationalism Underlying socio-economic grievances are steering usually business-friendly governments into a more nationalist and authoritarian direction that will begin to limit the sustainability of their success.
40 Tanzania: Magufuli s Way Magufuli s self-styled economic war has targeted the mining, power, and LNG industries. Examples include export bans, mine shutdowns, visa suspensions, contract cancellations, and unrealistic fines. Magufuli is stacking key state institutions with ideologically-aligned loyalists. Opposition warnings of a fall in the value of the shilling against the dollar as gold exports slump are falling on deaf ears.
41 Where are the remaining African success stories?
42 Africa Real GDP Growth: 2017 Top & Bottom Performers (excl. Libya) (year-on-year % growth) 2018 Top Performers 2018 Bottom Performers Ghana 8.9 Chad 2.4 Ethiopia 8.5 Nigeria 2.1 Ivory Coast 7.3 Angola 1.6 Senegal 7.0 South Africa 0.9 Djibouti 7.0 Zimbabwe 0.8 Rwanda 6.8 Algeria 0.8 Tanzania 6.8 Burundi 0.1 Burkina Faso 6.5 Swaziland -0.9 Sierra Leone 6.1 South Sudan -3.4 Benin 6.0 Equatorial Guinea Sources: AFED & IMF, WEO Oct 17 & Jan Sources: AFED & IMF, WEO Oct 17 & Jan 18
43 Nigeria South Africa Egypt Algeria Angola Sudan Morocco Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania DRC Tunisia Ivory Coast Libya Ghana Cameroon Uganda Zambia Botswana Gabon Mauritius Mozambique Burkina Faso Mali Namibia Zimbabwe Senegal Equatorial Guinea Chad Madagascar Benin Rwanda Congo Republic Guinea Niger Eritrea Malawi Togo Mauritania Swaziland Sierra Leone Burundi South Sudan Liberia Djibouti Lesotho Central African Rep Cape Verde Seychelles Guinea-Bissau Gambia Comoros São Tomé & Príncipe Africa: Size of the Economy (Nominal GDP: $,millions) 450, , , , , , , , , , Sources: AFED & AfDB
44 Economic recovery in Africa s large economies underpins the entire continent s success
45 Any Questions?
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