Regional Centers as Knowledge Producers, Providers & Brokers

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1 Web: water.cedare.int Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability & Adaptation to Climate Change Samoa, 2-5 March, 2010 Centre for Environment & Development for the Arab Region & Europe (CEDARE) Potential Collaboration among Regional Centers & Networks CEDARE s Role in Climate-Related Programs & Activities in the Arab Region (North Africa & West Asia) Khaled Abu-Zeid, Ph.D., PE, PMP Regional Water Resources Program Manager, CEDARE CEDARE Premises in Cairo, Egypt Tools & Methods for Collaboration Mandating regional centers as knowledge producers, providers, & brokers Developing collaborative regional research projects Gathering and collection of data from national entities Analysis & interpretation of data to produce reliable information Technology transfer on GCM, & RCM, downscaling, remote sensing, forecasting models, & trend analysis techniques Monitoring & evaluation of regional trends through sharing of national data & information to support decision making in future adaptation planning Web: water.cedare.int Regional Centers as Knowledge Producers, Providers & Brokers Monitoring & Evaluation of Regional Trends & Regional Adaptation Mechanisms Web: water.cedare.int The Arab Region is an already Arid to Hyper Arid Region Precipitation Patterns in the Arab Region Morocco Spain Turkey Tunisia Lebanon Palestine Syria Iraq Iran Kuwait Bahrain Algeria Libya Egypt Saudi Arabia Jordan Qatar UAE Mauritania Mali Niger Sudan Oman Chad Yemen Djibouti Nigeria Ethiopia Somalia Political Boundaries Precipitation Zaire

2 Per Capita Annual Renewable Water Resources in the Arab Countries (m 3 /cap/year) LEBANON MOROCCO EGYPT DJIBOUTI ALGERIA TUNISIA OMAN Palestine YEMEN BAHRAIN JORDAN SAUDI ARABIA LIBYA QATAR U.A.E. KUWAIT Comoros Annual Renewable Water Resources Per Capita Australia & New Zealand Latin America & Caribbean North America Europe & Central Asia Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific (incl. Japan&Koreas) Western Europe South Asia Middle East & North Africa MAURITANIA IRAQ SUDAN SOMALIA SYRIA per capita RWR 2000 per capita RWR m^3 / year Web: water.cedare.int Potential Impacts of Climate Change in the Arab Region & Facing the Challenge of Uncertainty while Addressing Adaptation Needs What is climate change impact on precipitation? (IPCC Report) Will impacts of water demand increase, exceed impacts of climate-induced precipitation reductions? Are floods increasing? And are they due to climate change or unplanned urbanization? Source: Vorosmaty et al. Science 2000

3 Will evaporation due to Global Warming surpass the impact of sea level rise? Morocco Precipitation decrease but how much? Rainfall decrease is expected to get worse Percent reduction of annual rainfall compared to the baseline (Pattern Scaling, A2 scenario, downscaled on HadCM3) Midelt Oujda Ourazazate Agadir Marrakech Mekness Settat Casablanca Beni Mellal Tangier Morocco less wet days & more persistent droughts Tendance des indices annuels relatifs aux jours humides et à la sécheresse Période: R1mm: Total de jours 0,8 humides cdd: Période maximale de sécheresse 0,6 Groundwater depletion due to overexploitation or reduced recharge? Drop in level of the Souss Aquifer, Morocco Tendance 0,4 0,2 0 m ,2 Tanger Kénitra Rabat Fès Méknès Ifrane Casablanca Marrakech Safi Agadir Oujda , ,6-70 Trends of the total number of wet days (blue bars) and the maximum dry-spell length (yellow bars) (A wet day is a day with at least 1mm total amount of rainfall.)

4 Tunisia Decrease of aquifers level (combined effect of lower recharge & increased pumping) Merguellil (Tunisie centrale) Increasing Trend in Temperature Algeria Annual mean temperature in Oran ES-SENIA station (Algeria) Mahi Tabet-Aoul (les notes d alerte du CIHEAM, N 48 4 juin 2008). Change in water flows in the central basins of Algeria Increase in extreme events Hydroclimatic Coefficient 1,2 0,8 0,4 0,0-0,4-0,8-1,2 Alternance de périodes humides et sèches Période sèche NASA, Goddard Earth Sciences DAAC. MODIS images show flooded Sahara Desert (March 7, 2005)

5 Unusual Rains (Mid-February 2006) Ghardaia, 600 kilometers south of Algiers, Algeria, Thursday Oct. 2, literally dissolving homes and infrastructure (similar flooding occurred in 1994) Flooded street in Torrential rain in the Algerian Sahara Flash floods killed 30 people & injured dozens in a historic oasis region Saudi Arabia s 2009 Floods Saudi Arabia Egypt 2010 Flash Floods Egypt

6 Egypt 2010 Flash Floods Series of high floods operated High Aswan Dam Spillway first in 1997 Adaptation to Potential High Nile Flows (Toshka Spillway in Egypt) Toshka Depression Lakes Sea level rise and Land Subsidence Rates in the Nile Delta for the past 3 decades Region SLR (mm/yr) Subsidence (mm/yr) Alexandria (West Delta) Al-Burullus (Middle Delta) Assumption: Same increase rate of air temperature from IPCC 2007 of 0.6 degrees C/yr. Port Said (East Delta) City Projected average annual Sea Level Rise (cm) relative to year 2000 sea level Port Said (East Delta) Al-Burullus (Middle Delta) Alexandria (West Delta) Scenario CoRI B1 A1F1 CoRI B1 A1F1 CoRI B1 A1F

7 Climate Change & Sea Water Rise Climate Change & Sea Water Rise Nile Delta - Current Situation Nile Delta 1 Metre Sea Level Rise Climate Change & Sea Water Rise Nile Delta 2 Metre Sea Level Rise Natural Features & Shore Erosion Protection Infrastructure as Sea Level Rise Adaptation Mechanisms Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and the international coastal road International coastal road Sand Dunes at Middle Delta Coast and coastal protection works

8 Coastal Sand Dunes at North Sinai Bazalt Riprap to Protect Borg Al-Burullus Village Mohammed Ali Sea Wall Protected Cultivated Low Lands (1.5m -2.5m Below Sea Level) RasAl-Bar Resort Under Sea Attack Before the Construction of Protection Works Ras Al Bar RasAl-Bar Resort has gainedlands after the Construction of Protection Works Nile Rosetta Branch Shore Erosion Detached Breakwater

9 Egypt and the Nile Basin Rosetta Sea Wall stopped the erosion and protected the backshore land Since its Construction Climate Change Impacts are Transboundary Water Resources in the 10 Nile Countries Very Low Precipitation High Precipitation 1660 BCM/year annual precipitation on the Nile Basin BCM/year annual precipitation on the Nile Basin Countries. Egypt s Use from the Nile is 55.5 BCM/year. General Circulation Model for Climate Change Estimates DJF: December, January, February JJA: June, July, August Recognizing Green Water as an Adaptation Mechanism for Reduced River Flows The Nile Per Capita PRWR Water Share & Per Capita Forests & Cultivated Land Share Tanzania Sudan Congo Ethiopia Kenya Uganda Eritrea Burundi Egypt Rwanda cubic meter/capita/year (1995) square meter/capita (1995)

10 Global Green Water / Blue Water Use Blue & Green Water for Food in North Africa North Africa Irrigated Crops Abstraction Rainfed Crops Abstraction Green Water for Food Exceeds Blue Water for Food in Africa North Africa Irrigated Crops Abstraction Africa Rainfed Crops Abstraction Green Water contributes to Livestock In the Nile Basin, Green Water contributes about 150 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) per year to livestock only in Ethiopia and Sudan which host about 2/3 of livestock heads Africa This 150 BCM is about 3 times Egypt s total annual water consumption for Agriculture, Industry, Municipal and other Uses If Climate change impact reduces green water upstream it will put more pressures on blue water downstream, whereas if it increases green water upstream it will increase flows of blue water downstream Alexandria January Max Temperature 50 years spectrum Alexandria Temperature Indicators Trends Month Min Values Linear Trend Max Values Linear Trend Match Case January Descending Descending Matching February Descending Descending Matching March Descending Descending Matching April Descending Ascending Mismatch May Ascending Descending Mismatch June Ascending Descending Mismatch July Ascending Descending Mismatch August Ascending Ascending Matching September Ascending Ascending Matching October Ascending Ascending Matching November Descending stable Matching December Descending Descending Matching

11 Alexandria January and July Total Prcipitation (mm) in Years ( Years January July Linear (January) Linear (July) Depth (mm) Alexandria Rainfall Indicators Trends Month Total Rain Fall Max Rainfall Number of Rainy Days Average Rainfall Average Rainfall over Rainy Days JANUARY Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending FEBURARY Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending MARCH Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending APRIL Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending MAY descending descending descending descending descending JUNE descending descending descending descending descending JULY descending descending descending descending descending AUGUST descending stable descending stable stable September descending descending descending descending descending October Ascending Ascending descending Ascending Ascending November stable stable Ascending stable Ascending December Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending Ascending Human Impacts exacerbates Climate Change Impacts Urbanization creating flooding risks with the little-left infiltration areas in the cities of the future Alexandria World population prospects World Cities exceeding 5 million residents Source: UN (2004) Data source: U.N. Population Division

12 2000 World Cities exceeding 5 million residents 2015 World Cities exceeding 5 million residents Data source: U.N. Population Division Data source: U.N. Population Division Urbanization Green water change into blue water Less groundwater recharge Increased local temperature leading to increased global warming Reduction in Carbon Dioxide sinks Non-renewable Groundwater A long term Climate Change? or A Historical Geologic Change? The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer Non-Renewable Groundwater Petrified Trees = Old Water

13 Wina Ngaya Nile Baro Sudan The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer Batha Benue Mbere Logone Chari Pende Ouham Erguing Korom Gribingui Ouham Bahr Aouk Bahr Dosseo Bamingui Tete Kotto Tlwai Va Chinko Boro Goangoa Kuru Ouarra Bokou Lol Uere Kyom Sue Jur Gel Lesi Nzoro Nile White Nile Bahr az Zeraf Albert Nile Sobat Pibor Achwa Rahad Agwei Akobo Dinder Blue Nile Gilo Wenz Omo Wenz Wells canals intermittent stream lake stream lakes Precipitation (mm) N W E S Kilometers Source : ArcAtlas, Digital Chart of the World (DCW) by ESRI Prepared by CEDARE 1998 Sustaining Drinking Water Supply The Great Man-Made River Project in Libya Tunisi a Tripoli Mediterranean Sea Benghazi Sirt Ajdabiya Tobruk Algeria Ghadames NE Jebel Hasouna Wellfield E Jebel Hasouna Wellfield PCC P Plant Sarir Wellfield Tazerbo Tazerbo Wellfield Jaghboub PCC P Plant Egypt Kufra Km

14 Sustaining Agriculture Siwa Oasis in the Western Desert of Egypt Sustaining Tourism & Recreation Swimming in Groundwater Springs in Egypt Sustaining Ecosystems Climate Change Issues related to non-renewable groundwater Sustainability Impacts on climate Change What is the impact on the global climate (positive / negative? Increase in water budget in the global hydrological cycle More green cover What is the impact on the micro climate? Temperatures Local humidity Will NSAS pumping 5000 Billion m 3 of 20,000 year old entrapped water, back into the global hydrological cycle over the next 100 years, reverse IPCC s predicted decrease in precipitation in the Mediterranean?

15 Regional Centers as Knowledge Producers Regional Collaborating Center for Environmental Outlook Reports Ongoing Initiatives by CEDARE Environmental Outlook in the Arab Region Regional Water Reports Regional Centers as Knowledge Distributors Ongoing Initiatives by CEDARE Dissemination & Awareness Reports, Workshops, etc. Regional Centers as Knowledge Brokers Ongoing Initiatives by CEDARE

16 Regional Projects Regional Monitoring & Evaluation Program for the Water Sector in North Africa Program for Increasing Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in the Arab Region (Phase I, Egypt & Saudi Arabia) Climate Change: Facts for Mitigation and Realties for Adaption In The Arab Region, Case Study: Saudi Arabia Regional Projects & Reports Adapting to Climate Change Induced Water Stress in the Nile River Basin Project State of the Water Report in the Arab Region State of Freshwater Ecosystems in the Arab Region Regional Climate Outlook Program for North Africa Regional Projects & Initiatives Climate change Impact Research in the Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) Sustainable Water Management Improves Tomorrow s Cities Health (SWITCH) Strategic Partnership on Climate Change in Egypt Program on Climate Risks Management Promotion & Support to National Climate Change Adaptation & Mitigtion Initiatives Recommendations Strengthening the role of Regional Centers as knowledge hubs, and providers of technical assistance and capacity building on impact assessment, GCM, adaptation & mitigation Improving research collaboration between Regional Centers Embracing Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Promoting Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Improving downscaling global circulation models results Strengthening national data gathering and sharing Setting an extensive regional CC monitoring network Delineation of climate-induced impacts from direct humaninduced impacts, and geologic-induced impacts Careful studying of sea level rise impacts and/or its adaptation mechanisms Thank You

Annex III: Statistics

Annex III: Statistics Table A.3.1 Physical characteristics of Arab countries Country Area, 2011 (thousand square kilometres) Length of coast, 2005 (kilometres) Rainfall, 2002 (millimetres per year) Total