Financing Railway: PPP s Lesson form Mass Transit in Bangkok Sumet Ongkittikul August 2017

Transcription

1 Thailand Development Research Institute Financing Railway: PPP s Lesson form Mass Transit in Bangkok Sumet Ongkittikul August 2017

2 Content Infrastructure Investment in Thailand Mass Transit Investment in Bangkok: Existing and Plan PPP in Mass Transit in Bangkok Key Lessons and Recommendations

3 Infrastructure Investment in Thailand Most advancing projects are mass transit projects and motorways. Double tracks railways are also starting the construction, with some projects are being considered for approval. High-Speed train projects (standard gauge railway) are moving very slow, which unlikely to start in 2017 In Construction Process Start Start Start Construction in 2017 Construction in Construction in Beyond Bang Kae - Hua Lamphong and Bang Sue - Tha Phra Thailand Cultural Center Min Buri Tao Poon Rat Burana Ku Kot Lam Luk Ka Bangkok - Chiang Mai Bearing Samut Prakarn Khae Rai Min Buri Taling Chan Thailand Cultural Center Samut Prakarn Bang Pu Bangkok - Nong Khai Mo Chit Ku Kot Ladprao Samrong Khon Kaen - Nong Khai Bang Kae Phutthamonthon Sai 4 Bangkok - Hua Hin Rangsit Bang Sue Bang Pa-in Nakhon Ratchasima Thanon Chira Junction - Ubon Ratchathani Ratchaburi - Cha Am Bangkok - Rayong Pattaya - Map Ta Phut Bang Yai - Kanchanaburi Hua Hin - Prachuap Khiri Khan Bang Pa-in - Nakhon Sawan Chachoengsao - Kaeng Khoi Nakhon Pathom Hua Hin Chumphon - Surat Thani Surat Thani - Padang Besar Thanon Chira Junction Khon Kaen Prachuap Khiri Khan Chumphon Denchai - Chiang Khong Mapkabao Thanon Chira Junction Lopburi Pak Nam Pho Mass Transit Motorway Dual-Track Railway High-Speed Railway

4 Transport Infrastructure Investment Plan The major projects that are in the 2.3 trillion baht and 1.7 trillion baht plan are mostly going forward, except the high speed train projects 2.3 Trillion Baht (2014) Transport infrastructure investment value BIDDING STARTS 1.7 Trillion Baht Arkhom Plan I Prachin Plan (2015) Updated from Prachin plan CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS WERE MADE 0.89 Trillion Baht Arkhom Plan II (2016 / 2017) CONSTRUCTION STARTED 48.9 Billion Baht Preparing for project proposal 4 projects e.g. Motorway Hat-Yai - Sadao 298 Billion Baht Projects propose to the PPP committee 8 projects including Expressway N3 and Laem Chabang Port extension 54.7 Billion Baht 25.3 Billion Baht Other projects 468 Billion Baht To start the bidding process soon 15 projects e.g. remaining mass transit projects, remaining dual track projects, Airport Rail Link extension. Projects ready to start the construction Expressway Rama 3 Ring Road Dual Track 3 lines Mass Transit 3 lines Motorway 2 lines Mass Transit 3 lines Dual Track 2 lines

5 Infrastructure Investment Key Messages Infrastructure investment making progress at difference speed Most advancing projects are mass transit projects and motorways. Double tracks railways are also starting the construction, with some projects are being considered for approval. High-Speed train projects (standard gauge railway) are moving very slow, which unlikely to start in 2017 Private participation value is lower than we hope for, which most projects are using government budget For the Mass Transit projects, common ticket and pricing structure will affect the usage of the MRT systems and the land development along the lines.

6 Mass Transit Investment: Existing and Plan BTS won concession for the Pink and Yellow lines Orange lines (East) construction contracts were awarded, and construction will soon start Lines Projects Total announced budget PPP value Unit: Billion Baht TDRI s estimated real investment Bang Yai Bang Sue 12.2 COMPLETED Bang Kae - Hua Lamphong and Bang Sue - Tha Phra Bearing Samut Prakarn Mo Chit Ku Kot Thailand Cultural Center Min Buri Khae Rai Min Buri Ladprao Samrong Tao Poon Rat Burana Taling Chan Thailand Cultural Center Ku Kot Lam Luk Ka Samut Prakarn Bang Pu Bang Kae Phutthamonthon Sai Total Source: Ministry of Transport with TDRI calculation Note: indicates the urgent project

7 Mass Transit projects: Existing Mass transit lines

8 Mass Transit projects: Ongoing projects DARK RED LINE (Rang Sit Bang Sue) Construction 66% Complete in 2019 BLUE LINE (Bang Kae Hua Lamphong and Bang Sue Tha Phra) Construction 88% Complete in 2018 PPP PPP GREEN LINE (Mo Chit Ku Kot) Construction 19.5% Complete in 2019 PINK LINE (Khae Rai Min Buri) PPP consideration (PPP Net cost) Expected to start in 2017 Expected to complete: 2020 ORANGE LINE (Thailand Cultural Centre Min Buri) Expected to start in 2017 Expected to complete: 2021 YELLOW LINE (Ladprao Samrong) PPP PPP consideration (PPP Net cost) Expected to start in 2017 Expected to complete: 2020 Note: Existing Ongoing GREEN LINE (Bearing Samut Prakarn) Construction 100% Complete in 2017

9 Mass Transit projects: Plan (Taling Chan Thailand Cultural Centre) Expected to start in 2019 Expected to complete: 2013 BLUE LINE (Bang Kae Hua Lamphong BLUE LINE (Bang Kae Phutthamonthon Sai 4) Note: DARK RED LINE (Rang Sit Bang Sue) Construction 66% Complete in 2019 LIGHT RED LINE (Salaya - Hua Mak) Expected to start in n/a Expected to complete: n/a ORANGE LINE and Bang Sue Tha Phra) PPP Construction 88% Complete in 2018 Expected to start in 2019 Expected to complete: 2023 PURPLE LINE (Tao Poon Rat Burana) Expected to start in 2018 Expected to complete: 2022 Existing Ongoing Plan x GREEN LINE (Bearing Samut Prakarn) Construction 100% Complete in 2017 GREEN LINE (Ku Kot Lam Luk Ka) Expected to start in 2019 Expected to complete: 2023 PPP GREEN LINE (Mo Chit Ku Kot) Construction 19.5% Complete in 2019 PINK LINE (Khae Rai Min Buri) PPP consideration (PPP Net cost) Expected to start in 2017 Expected to complete: 2020 ORANGE LINE (Thailand Cultural Centre Min Buri) Expected to start in 2017 Expected to complete: 2021 GREEN LINE YELLOW LINE (Ladprao Samrong) PPP PPP consideration (PPP Net cost) Expected to start in 2017 Expected to complete: 2020 (Samut Prakarn Bang Pu) Expected to start in 2019 Expected to complete: 2023

10 Private Participation: Mostly in mass transit projects Private participation in transport projects are mainly in the Mass Transit Projects Unit: Billion Baht Projects Project announced Expected private budget investment Remarks MRT Blue Line Extension MRTA is negotiating with BEM MRT Green Line (North Ex.) Transfer to BMTA MRT Pink Line BTS won concession MRT Yellow Line BTS won concession MRT Orange Line (East) Concession to be opened MRT Purple Line (South) To start construction MRT Orange Line (West) To start construction Expressway Rama Seeking finding, possibly from Thailand Future Fund Expressway N Seeking finding, possibly from Thailand Future Fund Laem Chabang Phase Concession to be opened Total Projects Project announced Expected outsource budget contract Remarks Motorway M Out-sourcing toil collection and maintenance Motorway M Out-sourcing toil collection and maintenance Total Source: Ministry of transport

11 Mass transit pricing structure will affect the usage of its systems and business development along the lines Unless there is a common ticketing system, the price of using multiple mass transit lines are considerably high, which reduce their ridership and attractiveness to business development along the lines, especially in the suburbs If transferred to BMA, the green line and its extensions, will have a common ticketing system MRTA s lines will follow the net-cost approach, which will charge an entry fee for entering each system, because each concession holder will have to bear the revenue risk Note: The shadow lines represent the same system

12 BTS and MRTA stations with high passenger volume are in shopping & office areas Junction and final stations of the lines have higher passenger volume Considering these, the Yellow line has the most potential; while the first eight stations of Orange line may have some potential However, if BTS can have a common ticket for the Pink and Yellow lines with the Green line and its extension, it will be a powerful network that could create attractive opportunities for real-estate and business development along these lines There is synergy between mass transit stations and business development Million Person Million Person Number of passengers: MRT Million Person Number of passengers: BTS (National Stadium Bang Wa) Number of passengers: BTS (Mo chit Bearing) Expanded in 2013 Expanded in 2011

13 Key Lessons and Recommendations PPP is a good option to develop the mass transit in the urban area. PPP s projects are likely to develop each project independently, without any synergy. However, synergy is important, which will bring about the more passenger usage. In order to have the PPP model that have financial sustainability in long term, we need to rethink about financing schemes to better use of the infrastructure.