CASE STUDY YUWADEE SUWANMANEE THAI METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (TMD) THAILAND INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON THE ASSESSMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF

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1 CASE STUDY YUWADEE SUWANMANEE THAI METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (TMD) THAILAND INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON THE ASSESSMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SERVICES (NANJING, CHINA, SEPTEMBER 09)

2 SECTOR : CLIMATE SUB-SECTOR : CLIMATE CHANGE Case study name : The report of climate change impacts in Thailand.

3 Case Study Description: (1) To present the results of a regional climate model (RCM) It s resolution is 55x55 km 2, It was run base on scenario A2 The dynamic downscaling method is used for prediction in the several climatic characters such as precipitation, temperature, wind and other elements, Early the average of annual rainfall, annual mean minimum and annual mean maximum temperature will be displayed

4 Case Study Description: (2) They would be summarized how is its changing since 1961 to 2100 years. The report will be distributed to related services at the national level and the public user such as hydrological service, local government, department of disaster prevention and mitigation, department of agriculture, etc. for adaptation and make the decision.

5 TOOLS EMPLOYED: To describe the results of RCM and compare with observation data. To find the trend of climate will change in the future. Both of them were demonstrated to decadal data.

6 Description of Application: To gather and demonstrate the history data to graph and map formats. The results of RCM were transformed to graph and map formats. Compare 1 with 2. To find the trend of climate change in the future. To write the summary report.

7 Outcomes of Application : (History data 1) Mean maximum temperature anormaly - ~ +

8 Outcomes of Application : (History data 2) Mean minimum temperature anomaly - ~ +

9 Outcomes of Application : (History data 3) Average of amount of rainfall anomaly unclear

10 Outcomes of Application : (History data 1) Decadal maximum temperature

11 Outcomes of Application : (History data 2) Decadal minimum temperature

12 PHUKET AIRPORT MAE SARIANG PHUKET PHUKET AIRPORT MAE SARIANG PHUKET MAE HONG SON CHIANGMAI BHUMIBOL DAM LAMPHUN MAE SOT UMPHANG THONG PHA PHUM CHUMPHON RANONG TAK SURAT THANI AIRPORT TAKUA PA KO LANTA MAE HONG SON CHIANGMAI BHUMIBOL DAM LAMPHUN MAE SOT UMPHANG THONG PHA PHUM CHUMPHON RANONG LAMPANG KAMPHANG PHET KANCHANA BURI PHETCHA BURI HUA HIN SURAT THANI CHIANG RAI PHAYAO NAKHON SI THAMMARAT TAK SURAT THANI AIRPORT TAKUA PA KO LANTA TRANG LAMPANG KAMPHANG PHET KANCHANA BURI PHETCHA BURI HUA HIN SURAT THANI PHRAE UITARADIT PHITSANULOK NAKHON SAWAN CHAINAT SUPHAN BURI BANGKOK THA WANG PHA NAN LOP BURI DON MUANG SICHANG PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN SATUN CHIANG RAI PHAYAO NAKHON SI THAMMARAT TRANG PILOT STATION KO SAMUI PHRAE UITARADIT HAT YAI PHITSANULOK NAKHON SAWAN CHAINAT SUPHAN BURI BANGKOK LOM SAK PHETCHABUN WICHIAN BURI SATTAHIP SONGKHLA THA WANG PHA NAN LOP BURI DON MUANG SICHANG PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN SATUN PILOT STATION KO SAMUI HAT YAI BUA CHUM PRACHIN BURI CHON BURI PATTAYA RAYONG PATTANI NARATHIWAT LOM SAK PHETCHABUN WICHIAN BURI SATTAHIP SONGKHLA BUA CHUM PRACHIN BURI CHON BURI PATTAYA RAYONG PATTANI NARATHIWAT LOEI CHAIYAPHUM CHOK CHAI KABIN BURI ARANYAPRATHET LOEI CHAIYAPHUM CHANTABURI CHOK CHAI KABIN BURI ARANYAPRATHET KLONG YAI NONG KHAI UDON THANI KHON KAEN NAKHON RATCHASIMA CHANTABURI KLONG YAI NANG RONG NONG KHAI UDON THANI KOSUM PHISAI KHON KAEN NAKHON RATCHASIMA NANG RONG KOSUM PHISAI SURIN SURIN ROI ET THA TUM ROI ET NAKHON PHANOM SAKON NAKHON MUKDAHAN UBON RATCHATHANI METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT THA TUM NAKHON PHANOM SAKON NAKHON MUKDAHAN UBON RATCHATHANI METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT PHUKET AIRPORT MAE SARIANG PHUKET PHUKET AIRPORT MAE SARIANG PHUKET MAE HONG SON CHIANGMAI BHUMIBOL DAM TAKUA PA LAMPHUN MAE SOT UMPHANG THONG PHA PHUM CHUMPHON RANONG KO LANTA TAK SURAT THANI AIRPORT MAE HONG SON CHIANGMAI BHUMIBOL DAM LAMPHUN MAE SOT UMPHANG THONG PHA PHUM CHUMPHON RANONG LAMPANG KAMPHANG PHET KANCHANA BURI PHETCHA BURI HUA HIN SURAT THANI CHIANG RAI PHAYAO NAKHON SI THAMMARAT TAK SURAT THANI AIRPORT TAKUA PA KO LANTA TRANG LAMPANG KAMPHANG PHET KANCHANA BURI PHETCHA BURI HUA HIN SURAT THANI PHRAE UITARADIT PHITSANULOK NAKHON SAWAN CHAINAT SUPHAN BURI BANGKOK THA WANG PHA NAN LOP BURI DON MUANG SICHANG PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN SATUN CHIANG RAI PHAYAO NAKHON SI THAMMARAT TRANG PILOT STATION KO SAMUI PHRAE UITARADIT HAT YAI PHITSANULOK NAKHON SAWAN CHAINAT SUPHAN BURI BANGKOK LOM SAK PHETCHABUN WICHIAN BURI SATTAHIP SONGKHLA THA WANG PHA NAN LOP BURI DON MUANG SICHANG PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN SATUN PILOT STATION KO SAMUI HAT YAI BUA CHUM PRACHIN BURI CHON BURI PATTAYA RAYONG PATTANI NARATHIWAT LOM SAK PHETCHABUN WICHIAN BURI SATTAHIP SONGKHLA BUA CHUM PRACHIN BURI CHON BURI PATTAYA RAYONG PATTANI NARATHIWAT LOEI CHAIYAPHUM CHOK CHAI KABIN BURI ARANYAPRATHET LOEI CHAIYAPHUM CHANTABURI CHOK CHAI KABIN BURI ARANYAPRATHET KLONG YAI NONG KHAI UDON THANI KHON KAEN NAKHON RATCHASIMA CHANTABURI KLONG YAI NANG RONG NONG KHAI UDON THANI KOSUM PHISAI KHON KAEN NAKHON RATCHASIMA NANG RONG KOSUM PHISAI SURIN SURIN ROI ET THA TUM ROI ET NAKHON PHANOM SAKON NAKHON MUKDAHAN UBON RATCHATHANI METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT THA TUM NAKHON PHANOM SAKON NAKHON MUKDAHAN UBON RATCHATHANI METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT PHUKET AIRPORT MAE SARIANG PHUKET PHUKET AIRPORT MAE HONG SON CHIANGMAI BHUMIBOL DAM TAKUA PA MAE SARIANG PHUKET LAMPHUN MAE SOT UMPHANG THONG PHA PHUM CHUMPHON RANONG KO LANTA TAK SURAT THANI AIRPORT MAE HONG SON CHIANGMAI BHUMIBOL DAM LAMPANG KAMPHANG PHET KANCHANA BURI PHETCHA BURI HUA HIN SURAT THANI CHIANG RAI PHAYAO NAKHON SI THAMMARAT LAMPHUN MAE SOT UMPHANG THONG PHA PHUM CHUMPHON RANONG TRANG TAK SURAT THANI AIRPORT TAKUA PA KO LANTA PHRAE UITARADIT PHITSANULOK NAKHON SAWAN CHAINAT SUPHAN BURI BANGKOK THA WANG PHA NAN LOP BURI DON MUANG SICHANG PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN SATUN LAMPANG KAMPHANG PHET KANCHANA BURI PHETCHA BURI HUA HIN SURAT THANI PILOT STATION KO SAMUI CHIANG RAI PHAYAO NAKHON SI THAMMARAT TRANG HAT YAI PHRAE UITARADIT PHITSANULOK NAKHON SAWAN CHAINAT SUPHAN BURI BANGKOK LOM SAK PHETCHABUN WICHIAN BURI SATTAHIP SONGKHLA BUA CHUM PRACHIN BURI CHON BURI PATTAYA RAYONG PATTANI THA WANG PHA NAN LOP BURI DON MUANG SICHANG PRACHUAP KHIRI KHAN SATUN PILOT STATION KO SAMUI HAT YAI NARATHIWAT LOM SAK PHETCHABUN WICHIAN BURI SATTAHIP SONGKHLA LOEI BUA CHUM PRACHIN BURI CHON BURI PATTAYA RAYONG PATTANI NARATHIWAT CHAIYAPHUM CHOK CHAI KABIN BURI ARANYAPRATHET LOEI CHANTABURI KLONG YAI NONG KHAI UDON THANI KHON KAEN NAKHON RATCHASIMA CHAIYAPHUM CHOK CHAI KABIN BURI ARANYAPRATHET NANG RONG CHANTABURI KLONG YAI KOSUM PHISAI NONG KHAI UDON THANI KHON KAEN NAKHON RATCHASIMA NANG RONG SURIN KOSUM PHISAI ROI ET THA TUM SURIN NAKHON PHANOM SAKON NAKHON MUKDAHAN UBON RATCHATHANI METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ROI ET THA TUM NAKHON PHANOM SAKON NAKHON MUKDAHAN UBON RATCHATHANI METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT Outcomes of Application : (History data 3) ปร มาณฝนเฉล ย ( มม.) ป Decadal amount of rainfall ปร มาณฝนเฉล ย ( มม.) ป ปร มาณฝนเฉล ย ( มม.) ป มม มม มม มม. 00 มม มม. 10 มม มม. 800 มม มม มม มม มม. 00 มม มม. 10 มม มม. 800 มม มม มม มม มม. 00 มม มม. 10 มม มม. 800 มม. LOCAL-CLIMATE SUB-DIVISION LOCAL-CLIMATE SUB-DIVISION LOCAL-CLIMATE SUB-DIVISION ปร มาณฝนเฉล ย ( มม.) ป ปร มาณฝนเฉล ย ( มม.) ป ปร มาณฝนเฉล ย ( มม.) ป มม มม มม มม. 00 มม มม. 10 มม มม. 800 มม มม มม มม มม. 00 มม มม. 10 มม มม. 800 มม มม มม มม มม. 00 มม มม. 10 มม มม. 800 มม. LOCAL-CLIMATE SUB-DIVISION LOCAL-CLIMATE SUB-DIVISION LOCAL-CLIMATE SUB-DIVISION

13 Outcomes of Application : (RCM outputs 1) Mean maximum temperature: 90% of RCMs results are higher than observed data (10% are nearly observed data). By 2100s (91 to 2100), the most areas will increase of 4 ๐-5 ๐ C compare by 00s (1991 to 00). Examples

14 Outcomes of Application : (RCM outputs 2) Mean minimum temperature: RCMs results is most reliably, 63% of results are higher than observed data (37% are nearly observed data). By 2100s (91to 2100), Increasing in mean minimum temperature of Thailand, mostly will increase of 4 ๐-5 ๐ C compare Examples by 00s (1991 to 00)

15 Outcomes of Application: (RCM outputs 3) Mean amount of rainfall: 8% of RCMs results are nearly to observed data. By 2100s (91to 2100), The trend of mean amount of rainfall is not clearly in most areas, but it will increase in coastal areas and it will decrease in the northeastern part, compare by 00s (1991 to Examples 00)

16 Cost / Benefits: Cost : computer and human resources, knowledge, and history data. Benefit : for policy maker to adaptation and mitigation plan, especially it effects to water management and planting plan. Growth rates of plants may be affected by higher temperatures or changes in the amount and timing of precipitation.

17 STUDY: Consultation Mechanisms : Consultation between climate center s staff of TMD. Structural Interface : Direct contact to climate center s staff of TMD for data/information Delivery Mechanism : Printed as summary report and provided in electronic format on website ( Feedback Mechanism : Meeting and briefing sessions between user and staff. Lessons Learnt : It isn t a simple operation to predict the climate change. A higher resolution is needed to accurately.

18 Project Logistics Resources used : 8 calendar months for the RCMs run because of limit on computer efficiency and human resources. Data requirements : Initial data from GCM model had required to the RCMs run, and history data had required. Economic expertise : None Required : An understanding of how benefits are estimated, the better efficiently computer and human resources are essential.

19 Best Practice Advice : Users will be aware and will have well knowledge and understanding in fields relating to climate change before using the products to adaptation and decision. Possible Future Advances : Improving and developing in climate prediction (scenario, elements).

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