WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET REPORT

Transcription

1 WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET REPORT WEEK th October to 23 rd October Legal Disclamer The information contained herein has been obtained by various sources. Although every effort has been made to ensure that this information is accurate, complete and up to date, Shiptrade Services S.A. does not accept any responsibility whatsoever for any loss or damage occasioned or claimed, upon reliance on the information, opinions and analysis contained in this report. Researched and compiled by: Shiptrade Services SA, Market Research on behalf of the Sale & Purchase, Dry Cargo Chartering and Tanker Chartering Departments. For any questions please contact: market-research@shiptrade.gr Shiptrade Services SA Tel snp@shiptrade.gr 1st Floor, 110/112 Notara Street Fax chartering@shiptrade.gr Piraeus, Greece tankerchartering@shiptrade.gr

2 Shipping, Commodities & Financial News Russia s Grain Exports Seen by Ikar Slowing on High Prices Grain exports from Russia, the world s third-biggest wheat shipper last season, will slow through June because of high prices, said Dmitry Rylko, general director of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies. Russia s exports this month may be 2 million to 2.5 million metric tons, Rylko said by phone in Moscow today. Shipments were 3.16 million tons last month, according to Agriculture Ministry data. The last time Russia sold wheat in a tender to Egypt was Sept. 13, according to data on Bloomberg. There are almost no new contracts signed because our domestic prices are higher than world prices, Rylko said. We are not competitive. Wheat for December delivery rose 1.1 percent to $ a bushel on the Chicago board of trade by 4:24 p.m. Moscow time. That is equivalent to $324 a ton. Russia s exports were 9.5 million tons this season through mid-october, Rylko said. Total exports for the season that started July 1 are forecast at 12 million to 12.5 million tons, he said. (Bloomberg) Argentine storms to help grain output, hurt quality Argentine grains output will benefit from this year's early and potent arrival of El Nino-related rains, but low crop quality linked to flooding is likely to undermine the expected increase in soy and corn volume. Consumer nations hope South American breadbaskets Argentina and Brazil can help bolster global food stocks cut by dry weather in grains behemoths Russia and the United States. The violent storms that pelted the Argentine Pampas in August and September allowed growers to plant in areas usually too dry for farming. On the downside, corn sowing has been bogged down by mud while floodwaters hit some wheat crops, making them vulnerable to qualitysapping pests and fungi. "This year's El Nino effect has been one of the earliest on record, and one of the most chaotic," said Eduardo Sierra, climate adviser to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. "The effects will include high volume but low crop quality." El Nino, a climate pattern characterized by warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, tends to bring rain to South America's grains belt. Most climate experts expect a net increase in 2012/13 output that should at least help stabilize soaring global prices of grains, but this year's fickle weather could bring more surprises. "Let's not pop the champagne until the harvests are in, and maybe even sold, because the weather will remain very unstable and could do more damage than expected," Sierra said. The U.S. farm belt is coming off its worst drought in half a century and Russia's wheat crop is down more than a quarter from last year. The losses have lit a fire under Chicago grains futures, propelling wheat 31 percent higher since January, while soy has jumped by more than 28 percent and corn 17 percent. Argentina is a top supplier of all three crops. Sierra said this year's unusual weather could set the stage for Argentina to produce the record 55 million metric tons of soybeans and the record 28 million metric tons of corn forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The USDA sees Argentina's 2012/13 wheat output at 11.5 million metric tons. About 1 million hectares (2.5 million acres) of prime Buenos Aires farmland will probably be ruined by floods this season, Sierra said. "Nonetheless," he added, "the rains have increased the overall area in Argentina that can be used for agriculture this year, amply compensating for the losses." Argentina says 2012/13 production of soy, its top crop, could smash previous records and hit 58 million metric tons. This year's planting is just beginning. The country is the world's biggest exporter of soyoil, used in biofuels, and of soymeal animal feed used as far away as China, where the new middle class has begun a love affair with beefsteak. WACKY WEATHER The storms that have dominated Argentina's 2012/13 grains season began in August, when Buenos Aires province usually gets about 25 millimeters (1 inch) of water. This year Buenos Aires and surrounding areas received 290mm, flooding farm areas that were inundated again 30 days later by El Nino-related showers. "For 60 percent of the agriculture business in Argentina, El Nino-induced weather will be positive, the other 40 percent will have varying degrees of losses," said Anthony Deane, head of consultancy Weather Wise Argentina. He forecasts that southern Brazil, which produces half of that country's soy, will get too much rain while the other half of the crop receives too little. Considering the damage that the weather will do to crop quality in the 2012/13 season, Deane warns that consumers might end up disappointed with the amount of downward pressure that the region's output puts on international grains prices. The back and forth of clashing weather systems will likely delay soy collection while hurting harvest quality, especially in southern Brazil, Deane said. "Argentine soybeans should suffer a little less, because rainfall volume will be less over the long run than in southern Brazil," Deane said. He forecasts moderate rains in November, which should give soy planting a good start. "But," he added, "we expect excess rainfall again in December, which means that an important percentage of planned planting of soybeans will not be able to get completed." (Reuters) Transatlantic clean tanker activity muted Clean tanker rates for refined petroleum products on top export routes were broadly steady with slower business and a growing surplus of vessels keeping activity in the transatlantic market muted. Rates for medium-range (MR) tankers for 37,000 tonne cargoes from Rotterdam to New York on the TC2 route were at W115.42, or $4,713 a day when translated into average earnings, compared with W or $4,900 a day on and W or $6,491 a day last Monday. "Weak U.S. gasoline import demand has reduced TC2 enquiry, with tonnage building steadily as a result," broker SSY said. In September, MR rates reached their highest in six months. "The transatlantic arbitrage window remained at the close of the (last) week, likely preventing a pickup in demand and thus causing further negative pressure," broker CR Weber said. In April last year, rates reached their highest since 2008 on a jump in U.S. gasoline demand, helping reduce the number of tankers available for hire. Since then, average earnings have remained volatile. Average earnings per day are calculated after a vessel covers its voyage costs such as bunker fuel and port fees. Negative rates indicate costs are greater than earnings. Analysts said reduced refinery capacity in the Atlantic Basin could boost long-haul demand for the wider products tanker sector in coming years, helped by the delivery of fewer tankers. Typical Long Range 2 or LR2, 75,000 tonne shipments on the Middle East Gulf to Japan route were at W in the worldscale measure of freight rates, or $14,043 a day when translated into average earnings, from W on Friday or $14,213 a day and W or $11,988 a day last Monday. In July rates hit their highest level since late October of Brokers said the LR2 market saw brisk demand to book vessels in recent days. Long Range 1 tankers, carrying 55,000 tonne loads from the Middle East Gulf to Japan, were at W on Monday, from W on Friday and W last Monday. "Tonnage continued to thin in the MEG LR market as recent strong activity continued," SSY said. In the Mediterranean, 30,000 tonne shipments ex-algeria to southern Europe were at W on Monday, versus W on Friday and W last Monday. Brokers said tighter availability and buoyant demand was bolstering rates. (Reuters) 1

3 Dry Bulk - Chartering In Brief: Capes and Panamaxes improved and driven the market upwards while Supras and Handies remained stable Capes: Positive week for Capes This upward trend reflected on the BCI which closed at 2,217 improved by 303 points. In the atlantic market, fronthaul trade produced many fresh requirements closing slightly over USD 30,000 increased by almost USD 3,000 compared to last week s levels. Same pattern applied on the transantlantic round trips fixing at around USD 11,500 / USD 12,000. In the pacific market, round trips closed at around USD 17,500 with the Australian iron ore trade kept playing a determinant role at the area reported a notable increase of USD Period fixed at around USD 12,750 levels for one year. Panamax: Quite week in both basins. In the Atlantic, although we saw a positive trend at the very beginning of the week, rates were somewhat decreased at the end. BPI index at the beginning of the week was at 885 to end up at 879 on Friday. Thus we saw some Transatlantic round voyages closing at USD Fronthauls rates ex US Gulf were quite positive this week with fixtures at USD plus a ballast bonus of USD 600K. Fronthaul trips ex ECSA were fixed at around USD plus ballast bonus. In the Pacific basin the overall scene was rather steady. Nopac round voyages were mostly seen fixing at USD levels basis dop delivery mid China-Japan range. Aussie and Indonesian round voyages were fixed at USD 6000 basis redelivery China Finally there was some movement reported on the short period market with fixtures at USD 8000 levels daily for 4/8 months basis redelivery worldwide. Supramax: Downfall continued throughout the week The downward trend continued during the week with the BSI closing at 732 decreased by 44 points. In the Atlantic basin, trips ex USG to Continent and EMED have been fixed at around USD 10,500 whereas fixture has been reported ex Continent to EMED at USD 11,000. Trips ex USG to FEAST have been fixed at around USD 17,000 / USD 18,000 and fronthaul ex Continent at around USD 13,500. The pacific market was also slow with negative sentiment. Trips bss delivery Singapore via Indonesia to Eci closed at around USD 9,000/USD 9,250. Trip via Indonesia to Thailand bss delivery Singapore has been reported at USD 9,000. Regarding nickel ore round trips fixed at around USD 10,000. Short period fixed at around USD 8,500 / USD 9,000. Handysize: Low levels in both basins The transatlantic round kept on the low levels of around USD 6,5/7,000, with a fixture reported at USD 8,250 aps Recalada to Continent and another one at USD 11,500 to WCSA. Continent remained at reasonable levels with trips to Med paying USD 8/9,000 daily. Emed/Bsea had more firm cargoes than the rest of the Atlantic but still at low levels with vessels seeing USD 6,5/7000 to Continent and around USD 10,000 for West Africa always basis aps, while a vessel got USD 10,000 ex Bsea to ECCA. Usg/Caribs remained at low numbers with trips to Continent/Med at around USD 7,000 per day. Pacific remained slow as the round voyage was done at USD 7,000. Once again the dominant cargoes were coal and clinker ex SEASIA while there were some steels ex North China and Korea but still not paying dissent levels. Eci was dead with vessels either ballasting to Spore to compete there or considering the bagged rice orders to West Africa which were done at around USD mid 40 s basis 1/1. At Wci/Pg owners had to live with levels of USD 4,5/5000 for trips to Eci/Seasia/China. Period activity remained weak this week as well. 2

4 Dry Bulk - Chartering Baltic Indices Dry Market (*Friday s closing values) Index Week 42 Week 41 Change (%) BDI ,07 BCI ,83 BPI ,92 BSI ,67 BHSI ,23 T/C Rates (1 yr - $/day) Type Size Week 42 Week 41 Change (%) Capesize 160 / 175, ,25 Panamax 72 / 76, ,86 Supramax 52 / 57, ,03 Handysize 30 / 35, ,33 Average Spot Rates Type Size Route Week 42 Week 41 Change % Far East ATL Capesize 160 / 175,000 Cont/Med Far East ,14 Far East RV ,00 TransAtlantic RV ,29 Far East ATL Panamax 72 / 76,000 ATL / Far East ,59 Pacific RV ,69 TransAtlantic RV ,69 Far East ATL ,25 Supramax 52 / 57,000 ATL / Far East ,79 Pacific RV ,45 TransAtlantic RV ,33 Far East ATL ,57 Handysize 30 / 35,000 ATL / Far East ,13 Pacific RV ,09 TransAtlantic RV ,69 3

5 Dry Bulk - Chartering ANNUAL AUGUST 2012 OCTOBER

6 Dry Bulk - Chartering Capesize Routes Atlantic 2011 / 12 $40.000,00 $35.000,00 $30.000,00 $25.000,00 $20.000,00 $15.000,00 $10.000,00 $5.000,00 $0, C2 TUB / ROT C4 RBAY / ROT C7 BOL / ROT C8 T/A RV AVG ALL TC Capesize Routes Pacific 2011 / 12 $60.000,00 $50.000,00 $40.000,00 $30.000,00 $20.000,00 $10.000,00 C3 TUB / PRC C5 W AUST / PRC C9 CONT / FE C10 FE R/V $ Panamax Routes Atlantic 2011 / P1A T/A RV P2A CONT/FE

7 Dry Bulk - Chartering Panamax Routes Pacific 2011 /12 $20.000,00 $15.000,00 P3A FE R/V $10.000,00 P4 FE/CON $5.000,00 AVG ALL TC $0, $5.000,00 Supramax Routes Atlantic 2011 / S1A CON / FE S1B BSEA / FE S4A USG / CONT S4B CONT / USG S5 WAFR / FE Supramax Routes Pacific 2011 / 12 $18.000,00 $16.000,00 $14.000,00 $12.000,00 $10.000,00 $8.000,00 $6.000,00 $4.000,00 $2.000,00 $ S2 FE R/V S3 FE / CON S7 ECI / CHI AVG ALL TC 6

8 Tanker - Chartering VLCC: The last couple of weeks we have seen improved activity in the Atlantic region, however the emerging surplus in position lists from the Middle East does not allow profits to be made as those ships can cover the supply both for Middle East and West Africa cargoes. Suezmax: The Suezmax market in the Atlantic showed an improvement while Charterers are moving towards the November program. WAFR-USAC route settled at the 62.5 levels improved by 5 points. Aframax: In the Atlantic and mostly due to some delays and sustained demand the CBS-USG route gained about 7.5 points and with the improving seasonal demand, profits are likely to be sustained and perhaps improved. The EU market saw stability and downwards pressure, with NSea-UK remaining flat at ws85 and Med-Med losing 2.5 points. AG-East route showed some stability closing at ws95. Panamax: The market in the Caribbean was stable this week and the European market also showed an increase closing at ws for Cont-USAC. Products: The feeling in the Atlantic was weak, as the position list in the Caribbean market increased, the market softened with CBS-USAC route closing at ws 110; following a 10 point loss in the USG-TA route which concluded at ws70. An oversupply of units in the Atlantic, following previous positive weeks and increasing the tonnage position list, did not help make more gains with Cont-USAC dropping to ws117.5 writing down about 7.5 points. Baltic Indices Wet Market (*Friday s closing values) Index Week 42 Week 41 Change (%) BCTI BDTI T/C Rates (1 yr - $/day) Type Size Week 42 Week 41 Change (%) VLCC ,500 19, Suezmax ,250 16, Aframax ,750 13, Panamax ,000 13, MR ,750 12,

9 Tanker - Chartering Crude Tanker Average Spot Rates Type Size (Dwt) Route Week 42 WS Week 41 WS Change % 280,000 AG USG VLCC 260,000 W.AFR USG ,000 AG East / Japan Suezmax 135,000 B.Sea Med ,000 WAF USAC ,000 Med Med Aframax 80,000 N. Sea UKC ,000 AG East ,000 Caribs USG Product Tanker Average Spot Rates Type Size (Dwt) Route Week 42 WS Week 41 WS Change % 75,000 AG Japan Clean 55,000 AG Japan ,000 Caribs USAC ,000 Cont TA Dirty 55,000 Cont TA ,000 Caribs USAC

10 Tanker - Chartering VLCC Trading Routes 2011 / 12 Suezmax Trading Routes 2011 / 12 Aframax Trading Routes 2011 / 12 9

11 Tanker - Chartering Clean Trading Routes 2011 / 12 Dirty Trading Routes 2011 / 12 10

12 Sale & Purchase Signs of a standstill? The world of Financial Economical Social Business and off course Shipping people are counting the days for the American elections as many people seem to believe that change will come one way or another after this, Either President Obama comes out stronger or Senator Romney will have to give life to his program. The Global Economy is waiting for this as well and it seems that everyone is getting ready to sit on their chair and realize examine the results of the US Elections, 8-9 days remaining for that folks. Leaving this behind and back to business, we are reading the signs which show that the frenzy of previous months has slowed down. This can be seen from the number of buyers inspecting Panamaxes which has dropped to single digit levels, while during June August it was a two digit number. The same goes for Handymax buyers, with Supramax interest remaining increased, however only a handful of vessels in the market gives a reason for Supramax pricings to remaining slightly increased. Following the very delicate marketing of the vessel, and with quite a few people having inspected her, we will be waiting for about 10 days to hear of the offering figures for Sojitz Managed Handymax Bulker Sunny Gloria ( dwt blt Tsunieshi JPN 1998), however the last similar sale where KS Spirit ( dwt blt IHI JPn 1999) reported last week sold for USD 10.5 mill and Global Santosh ( dwt blt Tsuneishi Jpn 1997) reported about one month ago for USD 8.6 mill. This Weeks Shiptrade enquiry Index shows increased interest for late 90ies Handymaxes and Supramaxes built in the 00 s, mostly because a limited offering. We also receive requirements for Panamaxes of all ages starting from mid 90ies. Handies where, as always, dominating the interest in all ages starting form mid 90ies up to resales. Demand for Capes has decreased this week. Regarding the Tanker side we have received increased interest for MR1 tankers this week following the demand for MR2 s. Aframaxes where also of strong demand, however the recent requests for Panamaxes / LR1 s have not been limited. Last but not least, Interest for nineties built Suezmaxes has occurred from the Far East. NEWBUILDINGS In the newbuilding market, we have seen 22 vessels reported to have been contracted. 12 Bulk carriers (Handysize, Kamsarmax) 2 Tankers (Handy) 8 Container (2.300 TEU) DEMOLITION There are some signs of improvement in the market. India has, as usual, dominated the market with their offering levels showing some stability at their recent high s and looks like those buyers are paying more than Pakistan for Tankers. Bangladesh based buyers seem to start entering the market with some demand being there, however, at levels slightly below USD 400 / LT. Pakistan is as always firm for Large Bulker and mostly for Tankers at competitive levels, although about USD 10 / LT below India. The Chinese market is remaining at low levels less than USD 400, with some market players spreading a word that the Giant is about to wake, meantime we ll have to wait and see. 11

13 Sale & Purchase Indicative Market Values ( 5 yrs old / Mill $ ) Bulk Carriers Week 42 Week 41 Change % Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Tankers VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Weekly Purchase Enquiries SHIPTRADE P/E WEEKLY INDEX KOREA CHINA SPORE KCS GREECE OTHER SUM 0 27/12/2011-9/1/ /1/ /1/ /1/ /1-6/2/ /2/ /02/ /02/ /2-5/03/ /03/ /03/ /03/ /3-2/4/ /4/ /4/ /4/ /4-1/5/ /5/ /5/ /5/ /5/ /5-5/6/ /6/ /6/ /6/ /6-3/7/2012 4/7-10/7/ /7-17/7/ /7/ /7/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8/ /8-4/9/ /9/ /9/ /9/ /9-2/10/ /10/ /10/ /10/12 12

14 Sale & Purchase Reported Second-hand Sales Bulk Carriers Name Dwt DoB Yard SS Engine Gear Price Buyer Glory Claire IHI, JPN 04/2015 Sulzer - 17 mill Undisclosed Tala Usuki, JPN 07/2016 MIT 4 X 30 T 3.5 mill Chinese Pan Dynamic Kurushima, JPN 12/2015 B&W 4 X 30 T 2.7 mill Syrian Tasman ID Saiki, JPN 04/2014 MIT 4 X 30 T Region 5 mill Chinese Tankers Name Dwt DoB Yard SS Engine Hull Price Buyer Kensington Daewoo, KOR 11/2015 Sulzer DH 24 Russian Kinko Maru Namura, JPN 10/2013 B&W DH 16.4 mill Middle Eastern Genmar Ajax Samsung, KOR 07/2016 B&W DH 7.5 mill Indonesian Max Schulte Guangzhou, CHN 11/2014 B&W DH 8.6 Undisclosed Gas Tankers Name Dwt DoB Yard SS Engine Hull Price Buyer Gas Leo Mitsubishi, JPN 06/2015 MIT DH 15 Naftomar 13

15 Newbuildings Newbuilding Orders No Type Dwt / Unit Yard Delivery Owner Price BC Jinling 2014 Oldendorff BC Jinling 2014 Oldendorff - 2 Tanker HMD Atlanship Container Yangfin Schulte - Newbuilding Prices (Mill $) Japanese/ S. Korean Yards Newbuilding Resale Prices Bulk Carriers Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Tankers VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Newbuilding Resale Prices Bulk Carriers (2008 Today) Tankers (2008 Today) 14

16 Demolitions Demolition Sales Vessel Type Built Dwt Ldt Buyer Country Price Biloxi Belle BC India 428 Elbe Trader Container India 425 as is Colombo Front Driver BC India 400 as is Singapore Indian Fortune BC India 429 Iolcos Glory BC India 428 Kimon A BC India 431 Silver Bay Container India 411 as is Singapore Titan BC India 437 Indrani BC China 355 Demolition Prices ($ / Ldt) Bangladesh China India Pakistan Dry Wet Demolition Prices Bulk Carriers (2008 Today) Tankers (2008 Today) 15

17 Financial Market Data Shipping Stocks Dry Bulk Company Stock Exchange Week 42 Week 41 Change % Baltic Trading Ltd (BALT) NYSE 3,39 3,26 3,99 Diana Shipping Inc (DSX) NASDAQ 7,18 6,67 7,65 Dryships Inc (DRYS) NASDAQ 2,36 2,28 3,51 Euroseas Ltd (ESEA) NASDAQ 1,14 1,14 0,00 Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) NYSE 0,41 0,49-16,33 Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc (EGLE) NASDAQ 3,08 3,12-1,28 Freeseas Inc (FREESE) NASDAQ 0,18 0,21-14,29 Genco Shipping (GNK) NYSE 3,57 3,69-3,25 Navios Maritime (NM) NYSE 3,81 3,55 7,32 Navios Maritime PTN (NMM) NYSE 15,15 14,73 2,85 Paragon Shipping Inc (PRGN) NASDAQ 0,40 0,44-9,09 Star Bulk Carriers Corp (SBLK) NASDAQ 7,99 8,70-8,16 Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp (SHIP) NASDAQ 1,64 1,65-0,61 Safe Bulkers Inc (SB) NYSE 5,86 5,74 2,09 Golden Ocean (GOGL) Oslo Bors (NOK) 4,28 4,32-0,93 Tankers Capital Product Partners LP (CPLP) NASDAQ 8,10 8,10 0,00 TOP Ships Inc (TOPS) NASDAQ 1,10 1,11-0,90 Tsakos Energy Navigation (TNP) NYSE 4,84 4,56 6,14 Other Aegean Maritime Petrol (ANW) NYSE 5,93 6,11-2,95 Danaos Corporation (DAC) NYSE 2,74 2,88-4,86 StealthGas Inc (GASS) NASDAQ 7,23 6,79 6,48 Rio Tinto (RIO) NYSE 51,05 48,72 4,78 Vale (VALE) NYSE 18,22 18,19 0,16 ADM Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) NYSE 28,53 28,06 1,67 BHP Billiton (BHP) NYSE 71,15 68,34 4,11 Commodities Commodity Week 42 Week 41 Change (%) Brent Crude (BZ) 107,83 114,80-6,07 Natural Gas (NG) 3,48 3,42 1,75 Gold (GC) ,06 Copper 355,60 370,15-3,93 Wheat (W) 359,35 352,83 1,85 16

18 Financial Market Data / Bunker Prices / Port Congestion Currencies Week 42 Week 41 Change (%) EUR / USD 1,30 1,29 0,78 USD / JPY 79,33 78,43 1,15 USD / KRW ,54 USD / NOK 5,66 5,70-0,70 Bunker Prices IFO 380 IFO 180 MGO Piraeus Fujairah Singapore Rotterdam Houston Port Congestion* Port No of Vessels China Rizhao 18 Lianyungang 41 Qingdao 80 Zhanjiang 32 Yantai 32 India Chennai 9 Haldia 8 New Mangalore 9 Kakinada 7 Krishnapatnam 28 Mormugao 6 Kandla 62 Mundra 13 Paradip 13 Vizag 38 South America River Plate 243 Paranagua 38 Praia Mole 19 * The information above exhibits the number of vessels, of various types and sizes, that are at berth, awaiting anchorage, at anchorage, working, loading or expected to arrive in various ports of China, India and South America during Week 42 of year