From the Editor s Desk

Transcription

1 15 June 2010 Vol. 1, 21. From the Editor s Desk Dear FDI supporters, Welcome to the Strategic Weekly Analysis. This week, in the second of a series of analyses of countries and regions facing impending or evolving food and water crises, the manager of FDI s Global Food and Water Crises research programme, Gary Kleyn, investigates the uncertain futures of some of Asia s most important rivers, as melting glaciers in the Himalayas affect downstream water flows and food security. Also considered are the Northern Territory Government s ambitious plans to further boost investment in the Territory and its attempts to lure energy projects away from Western Australia. Heading back overseas, the decision of the Saudi Arabian Government to permit Israeli Air Force jets to transit its airspace en route to possible airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities is considered, as is the Indian Government s decision not to deploy the armed forces against Maoist insurgents operating in the country s so-called red corridor. Upcoming Strategic Analysis Papers include an overview of China s strategic objectives in the Indian Ocean region, while FDI Associate Captain David Hayward follows up with a detailed assessment of the so-called string of pearls strategy. FDI welcomes comment on both SWA articles and Strategic Analysis Papers. s, as well as suggestions for future articles, can be forwarded by to Leighton G. Luke at lluke@futuredirections.org.au Major General John Hartley AO (Retd) Institute Director and CEO Future Directions International

2 Himalayan Rivers Face Uncertain Future A report in Science magazine last week indicated that melting glaciers in the Himalayas will have a severe impact on food security in some areas, although not so severe as previously thought. That said, the food security of 60 million people along the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers is still at risk. The report by Dutch scientists, while a concern, is not as pessimistic as a 2007 report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which said that hundreds of millions of people were at risk from disappearing glaciers. Nevertheless, the report cannot be ignored by those living along the main rivers feeding off the Himalayas or by countries that are reliant on that water. The Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins in South Asia could have 20 per cent less water by Yet somewhat surprisingly, the Yellow River, which is fed by rain rather than the glaciers, is expected to carry 9.5 per cent more water as monsoon patters change in the region. Of the rivers that are fed by glaciers, it is only the Ganges that is said to be affected by a shrinking glacier source while the glacier that feeds the Indus River is actually growing each year. The Dutch scientists, from Utrecht University, say that it is unlikely that the Himalayan glaciers will disappear completely by 2035 as indicated in the IPCC report. Page 2 of 7

3 Yet while the glacier feeding the Ganges may be shrinking, meltwater, or glacial melted water, only plays a small part in the total water flow of the Ganges. The same can be said for the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. The Dutch study reportedly found that meltwater accounts for less than 10 per cent of the Ganges, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers with the remainder coming from rainfall. Conversely, 60 per cent of the water carried on the Indus is from meltwater and 20 per cent of the Brahmaputra. The Ganges basin, as indicated on the map above, covers an area of more than one million square kilometres. Around 85 per cent of the forests in the basin have been cleared and forests now account for no more than four per cent of the land area. There are 400 people per square kilometre in the basin which is said to be the highest population density of any river basin in the world. The Ganges starts at 4,200 metres above sea level in the Himalayas and meanders approximately 2,500 kilometres through India and Bangladesh then forms into the world s largest delta system before entering the Bay of Bengal. What can be made of this information? Clearly, the rivers from the Himalayas are in a healthier state than the IPCC had indicated in Yet the 60 million people said to be affected by the reduced water flow in the coming years is still reason for concern, as are the environmental impacts of a reduced water flow of these rivers. River management practices will undoubtedly need to be reviewed to better reflect the reality of a reduction in water supply. Gary Kleyn Manager Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme gkleyn@futuredirections.org.au Northern Territory Pushes for More Investment The Northern Territory Government continues to push the Territory s credentials as a major investment hub for petroleum, mining and exploration companies. Buoyed by development projects, such as the INPEX onshore gas processing facility, the Territory currently boasts the nation s lowest unemployment rates and the highest level of small- and medium-sized business confidence. Increased infrastructure spending seeks to attract further investment. The Northern Territory continues to receive positive economic data which supports Chief Minister Paul Henderson s call for companies to choose the Territory as the ideal place to invest. Page 3 of 7

4 In May 2010, the Australian Bureau of Statistics recorded the Northern Territory as enjoying the nation s lowest unemployment rate for the eighth consecutive month falling 0.1 per cent to 2.9 per cent. A 0.6 per cent increase in the number of people employed also means the Territory workforce has expanded to 122,180 individuals. A Sensis Business Index result released this month showed that small- to medium-sized business confidence in the Territory is higher than anywhere else in the nation. This is helped in part by having the lowest levels of taxes levied against small businesses. Another measure of the strength of the Territory economy has been the demand for goods and services for the year to March 2009, which increased by 9.4 per cent compared to 3.3 per cent nationally. At the Australian Petroleum Productions and Exploration Annual (APPEA) Conference held in Brisbane on 18 May 2010, the Chief Minister continued to lead the charge that his administration is responsive to the needs of business. His position echoed the Territory s aim of becoming a rival to Western Australia in securing petroleum, mining and exploration projects. During that conference, the Chief Minister took a direct swipe at Western Australia and Perth, labelling them as yesterday s heroes and called for companies to set up their head offices and relocate staff to Darwin. He added: The future lies to the north - not to the west - the road to Perth is a road to nowhere. The Chief Minister continued that theme, stating: Where else in Australia can you have greenfields development within a ten-minute drive to the capital city? And have a small and responsive government with a can-do approach around facilitating development? He made the point that a ready-made energy market already exists to its north, with 400 million customers located just a four-hour plane flight away. During the APPEA conference, one-on-one meetings were held between the Chief Minister and representatives from INPEX, Santos, Conoco Phillips, Magellan Petroleum, Shell, ENI and Nexus Energy. Later that month, Resources Minister Kon Vatskalis announced on 25 May that a Territory delegation to China had promoted the Northern Territory as a destination for exploration and mining. Approximately 200 Chinese companies, including the Nanjing Steel Pty Ltd, expressed interest in doing business in the Territory. The East China Mineral Exploration and Development Bureau invited the NT Government to host an investment seminar in Nanjing and deal directly with enquiries from Chinese companies on business opportunities in the Territory. Since 2007, the NT Government s $14.4 million Bringing Forward Discovery Strategy has seen mineral exploration expenditure reach record levels and $180 million worth of publicly announced investments. International events like the one held in Nanjing furthers the case for investment in the Territory. When Western Australia lost a bid to host the $23 billion INPEX on-shore gas development to the Northern Territory in August 2008, the NT Government described the deal as the Page 4 of 7

5 largest single private sector investment in Australia. That INPEX project is expected to lead to 2000 jobs during its construction phase, and once operational, employ 300 people. During , the NT Government invested $1.3 billion on infrastructure projects and in its Budget 2010, announced an increase in spending by $500 million. Increased industrial and infrastructure capabilities and capacities include a $150 million infrastructure programme to upgrade facilities at East Arm Wharf. The increased amount of spending on infrastructure has demonstrated the NT Government s push to put in place the conditions that will increase employment opportunities and attract future investment, driven also in part by a confidence that the Territory can compete with the larger players and States in winning its share of mining, petroleum and exploration projects. Gavin Briggs Research Manager Northern Australia Research Programme gbriggs@futuredirections.org.au Saudis to Clear Airspace for Israeli Strike on Iran Saudi Arabian authorities have reportedly given Israeli Air Force jets clearance to fly through the kingdom s airspace en route to targets in Iran. The move, which would greatly simplify any possible bombing run against Iranian nuclear facilities, illustrates the extent of concern in the region about Tehran s nuclear programme. According to reports published in The Times newspaper on 12 June 2010, Saudi authorities had conducted tests to ensure that Saudi Arabian Air Force jets were not scrambled in the event that Israeli bombers passed through a narrow air corridor in the north of the country, as they headed towards Iran. Under what was described to The Times as common knowledge, the air corridor arrangement would bring nuclear sites inside Iran within the range of Israeli Air Force bombers. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to rule out airstrikes against Iran s nuclear facilities, despite the latest sanctions imposed on Tehran by the United Nations Security Council. Equally, the Saudi agreement to look the other way speaks volumes of how it sees the Iranian nuclear programme. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel find common ground in viewing a nuclear Iran as the single greatest threat to regional security. In this, they are joined by the governments of Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states (and, until recently, Turkey). With diplomatic efforts at resolving the crisis not yet exhausted, an Israeli airstrike does not appear to be imminent. Continued Iranian intransigence will, however, only heighten the Page 5 of 7

6 fear among its neighbours that the nuclear programme is not solely being developed to provide civilian energy. Whether airstrikes would be sufficient to completely destroy the facilities is uncertain but, based on the latest reports, if Israel sees no other option, its jets can at least expect a clear flight path. Leighton G. Luke Manager Indian Ocean Research Programme lluke@futuredirections.org.au Indian Military Won t Be Used Against Maoists In its most recent meeting in New Delhi on 10 June 2010, the Indian Government s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) debated the use of the Armed forces to confront the ongoing Maoist insurgency in a number of eastern and central states. With the influential Defence and Home Ministers having sharply contrasting views on the subject, no definite agreement was reached. In view of the Army s already sizeable commitments elsewhere in India, it seems likely, however, that the Defence view has prevailed, at least for now. The ongoing Maoist (or Naxalite) insurgency in what has become known as the Red Corridor that comprises parts of the states of Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal has become increasingly violent in recent times. High profile attacks on paramilitary personnel and civilians which have resulted in the deaths of at least 134 people this year alone have led the Union Government in New Delhi to reconsider its options for tackling the problem. Strains were evident at the CCS meeting, with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh preaching caution and consensus in the face of strongly divergent opinion from the Home and Defence Ministers. Home Minister P Chidambaram favoured deploying troops to the Red Corridor from the Rashtriya Rifles (the Indian Army's specialised counter-insurgency force which operates in the northern state of Jammu and Kashmir). Defence Minister A.K. Antony took an opposing view, stating that the Army was already stretched by its operations in Jammu and Kashmir, in several North-Eastern states and along India s borders with Pakistan and China, and that the Air Force was unable to spare any more helicopters beyond those already deployed to transport paramilitary personnel in the afflicted regions. Some agreement was reached, however, with the CCS meeting approving the purchase by the Home Ministry of additional helicopters for transport purposes. Equally, the Ministry of Page 6 of 7

7 Defence is apparently willing to deploy Army training instructors to enhance the antiinsurgency capabilities of paramilitary and State Police personnel. In view of the fact that, at this stage at least, there appears to be no end in sight to the Maoist insurgency, it is perhaps only a matter of time before the issue of deploying the Armed Forces comes up for discussion again. Leighton G. Luke Manager Indian Ocean Research Programme lluke@futuredirections.org.au What s Next? The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy is holding its International Uranium Conference 2010 The Decade for Development, at the Adelaide Convention Centre from June. For more information, visit: The 22 nd Annual International Conference on Maritime Security will be hosted by the Maritime Security Council in Washington, DC on 17 June to discuss evolving security challenges to the maritime industry. The ninth APEC Energy Ministerial Meeting will take place in Fukui, Japan from June, under the theme Low Carbon Paths to Energy Security: Co-operative Energy Solutions for a Sustainable APEC. New Zealand Prime Minister John Key will meet with South African business leaders and open the new NZ High Commission premises in Pretoria while on an official visit to South Africa from June. Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste will speak on the challenges and prospects for democracy in East Timor at the Australian National University on 22 June. The venue will be Llewellyn Hall at the ANU School of Music, Childers Street, Canberra. Registrations are essential and close at 5pm on Monday, 21 June. To register visit: Any opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the individual author, unless stated to be those of Future Directions International. Published by Future Directions International Pty Ltd. Desborough House, Suite 2, 1161 Hay Street, West Perth WA 6005 Australia. Tel: Fax: lluke@futuredirections.org.au Web: Page 7 of 7