TRANSPORT AND TRAFFIC IMPLICATIONS OF NOT PROCEEDING WITH PERTH FREIGHT LINK AND THE BROADER ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES

Transcription

1 TRANSPORT AND TRAFFIC IMPLICATIONS OF NOT PROCEEDING WITH PERTH FREIGHT LINK AND THE BROADER ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES REPORT PREPARED FOR SOUTH WEST GROUP OF COUNCILS BY GREG MARTIN TRANSPORT STRATEGIES OCTOBER 2016 Greg Martin Transport Strategies Pty Ltd ABN

2 Contents Page Executive Summary 1 Context 7 Perth Freight Link 9 Growth Expectations 11 Traffic Modelling 12 Upgrades Completed on State and Local Roads 16 Road Network Implications 17 Not Proceeding with Perth Freight Link Metropolitan Planning Objectives 21 Access and Mobility Broader Economic and Social Consequences 24 Road Planning Re-assessment Considerations 26 Highest Priority Road Re-assessments 27 Recommendation 31 Acknowledgement 31 References 32 Attachment City of Cockburn Preferred Network 36 Greg Martin Transport Strategies Pty Ltd ABN

3 Executive Summary The Perth Freight Link in the South West Metropolitan Region comprises a four-lane dual carriageway extension of Roe Highway from Kwinana Freeway to Stock Road (Roe 8), a proposed twin bore tunnel (Fremantle Tunnel) to High Street and two lanes (Fremantle Port Connect) extending from Canning Highway to Fremantle Inner Harbour. Perth Freight Link is an essential part of the Principal Road Freight Network initiative in the draft Perth Transport Plan for 3.5 Million People and Beyond to concentrate a high proportion of the Metropolitan freight task and heavy freight vehicles on a designated (and less dense) road network. The State Opposition, some affected local governments and community groups are opposed to construction of Roe 8 and the Perth Freight Link. If the Perth Freight Link does not proceed, an immediate consequence is that heavy road freight between Kewdale/Forrestfield, Fremantle Port and Western Trade Coast and associated freight destinations will continue to mix with all other traffic west of Kwinana Freeway on the existing State and local road network. This will exacerbate current and emerging congestion as the population grows in Perth and Peel by a further 1.5 million to 3.5 million in about 2050 and vehicular traffic increases on key roads in the South West Metropolitan Region. Main Roads WA and the City of Cockburn traffic modelling shows the congestion impacts for projected traffic volumes at 2020 and 2031, both with and without the first stage of the Perth Freight Link, Roe 8. Main Roads WA has confirmed the need for alternative major east-west connections between Kwinana Freeway and Fremantle Rockingham Controlled Access Highway, if Roe 8 and the second stage of the Perth Freight Link to Fremantle Port do not proceed. The primary roads identified by Main Roads WA, indicated below, are characterised by increasing congestion and road safety issues due to mixed light and heavy vehicle traffic, uncontrolled direct access from private and commercial properties, signalised and unsignalised intersections, in traffic lane public transport stops and high crash rates. Leach Highway West of Kwinana Freeway, Leach Highway has in excess of 180 driveway connections, more than 20 road junctions without traffic light control, eight sets of traffic lights and 28 bus stops between Kwinana Freeway and Stock Road. Between 2009 and 2013 more than 72% of crashes on Leach Highway were rear-end collisions. Upgrading Leach Highway between Kwinana Freeway and North Lake Road This section has five signalised and multiple business access, uncontrolled side streets, turning lanes, driveways and in traffic lane bus stops. A grade separation at North Lake Road and Leach Highway will involve a complex design solution and come with substantial disruption to businesses and residents. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 1

4 Leach Highway/Stock Road Intersection Grade separation is complex due to difficult topography, the requirement to achieve grades and curves suitable for steady speed by high productivity freight vehicles and the intensive commercial development around the intersection. Upgrading Leach Highway/High Street intersection and from East of Carrington Street to Stirling Highway Modelling suggests that average weekday traffic volumes on the cross section of High Street east of Stirling Highway will increase by almost 37 per cent between 2011 and crashes occurred on the stretch of High Street between Stirling Highway and Carrington Street in the 5 years to December Around 56 per cent of crashes involved major damage to property and 76 crashes occurred where local roads intersect with High Street. South Street South Street is a 6 lane divided carriageway between Kwinana Freeway and Plane Tree Grove, O Connor with in traffic lane bus stops and no controlled pedestrian crossings except at the few signalised intersections. Between Plane Tree Grove and Carrington Street the four lane road has direct access from residential and commercial properties, in lane bus stops and uncontrolled intersections. South Street will need to be upgraded to deal with increased traffic; including freight vehicles and this may preclude the opportunity for a high quality Bus Rapid Transit or Light Rail Transit service on this route. Broader Economic and Social Consequences Broader economic and social consequences for the South West Metropolitan Region of not proceeding with the fully functional Perth Freight Link include: Regional road network congestion affecting access and mobility for commuters, public transport services, emergency vehicles and active transport initiatives of walking and cycling Constrained road capacity for east-west travel from home to jobs and activity centres Effective reduction in the employee catchment for employers and job choices for employees A constraint on expansion plans and investment in employment and activity centres Reduced road freight productivity and freight efficiency due to stop/start urban traffic Road based public transport forced to operate in the whole of transport mix on major roads Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 2

5 Disruption to progressing the integrated planning of public and private investment and development in the region Reduce the potential comparative advantage of existing commercial and industrial infrastructure and business operations in the South West Metropolitan Region Loss of State and local government revenue from expected up-valuing of property through improved amenity from general reduction in growth of traffic across the regional road network Opportunity cost of the additional funding for new programs brought forward to compensate for the reduced level of service on the existing regional road network Undefined Costs and Impacts Alternative east-west and north-south road access across the South West Metropolitan Region have as yet undefined costs and impacts to the State and local governments, businesses and the community including; Major new road investment with as yet unknown costs Social costs of property impacts, disruption, severance, congestion, rat running, safety, community access, property access, amenity Challenges for heavy vehicle route regulation, road safety infrastructure works, compliance and enforcement Community reaction to increasing congestion and frustration with the disruption for commuting, school, personal service, shopping and recreation trips Re-assessment Needs Without Perth Freight Link or even Roe 8, there is an immediate, long term economic and social need to: Re-assess the existing regional road network and planning for upgrades on State and local government roads to maintain acceptable levels of service, safety, amenity and containment of vehicle emissions. Re-establish the Principal Road Freight Network in the South West Metropolitan Region Assess the full cost, priority and timing for road upgrades, including road reservations, land acquisition, detailed design and construction and project programming and funding. Assess access to major activity centres to ensure their growth and expansion, attractiveness to business, workers and consumers and optimal residential, commercial and service development Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 3

6 Re-assess public transport services needed to compensate for increased traffic to and around transport hubs and activity and employment centres. High Priority Road Network Re-assessment Major road network elements requiring high priority re-assessment for the by 2.7million population time horizon (2031) with provisional amounts, not cost estimates, are: North South routes Kwinana Freeway North Lake Road Stock Road East West routes Roe Highway Leach Highway Leach Highway Additional 3 rd north bound lane between Beeliar Drive and Farrington Road ($40M) Armadale Road Bridge over the Kwinana Freeway ($160M) Upgrade to three lanes in each direction land constraints between South Street and Leach Highway ($60M) Grade separation at South Street land acquisition and business impacts commercial centre access issues ($60M) Grade separation at Winterfold Road wide separation of carriageways ($40M) Major intersection upgrade at Forrest Road high volume from east of Stock Road transferring north and south on Stock Road ($6M) Grade separation at Phoenix Road constrained by residences north of Phoenix Road Phoenix over Stock ($40M) Grade separation at Spearwood Avenue Spearwood over Stock commercial centre access issues ($50M) Upgraded to three lanes in each direction between Kwinana Freeway and Karel Avenue complex road geometry, in close proximity with residences, and Karel Avenue connections ($40M) West of Kwinana Freeway ongoing safety issue with uncontrolled intersections, residential and commercial property driveway access program of turning pockets, bus embayments ($10M) Murdoch Drive intersection upgrade slip lanes, turning pockets west to North Lake Road ($15M). Increased traffic volumes associated with the Garden City shopping centre redevelopment will impact this intersection as well as Leach Highway and Riseley Street. If Roe 8 and the Perth Freight Link are not constructed both Murdoch Drive and Riseley Street will need consideration for grade separation. Grade separation at North Lake Road highly constrained by commercial properties at the intersection significant north-south, east-west traffic pattern ($70M) Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 4

7 Leach Highway South Street Farrington Road Winterfold Road Phoenix Road Activity Centres Murdoch Drive Grade separation at Stock Road complex project involving difficult topography and road geometry requiring land acquisition to achieve curves and grades for heavy vehicle traffic substantial commercial and residential property impacts ($80M) Upgrading Leach Highway/High Street intersection and east of Carrington Street to Stirling Highway South Street is a regulated freight route with traffic volumes of up to 75,000 vehicles per day west of Kwinana Freeway Grade separation at Murdoch Drive primary access to Murdoch Activity Centre and high volume intersection ($40M) Bus priority measures intersections, bus embayments and turning pockets smart traffic signal coordination program ($10M) East of Kwinana Freeway to Karel Avenue limitations of roundabouts, traffic calming and on-street parking on through traffic and intersection at Karel Avenue (modelling predicts up to 25,000 vehicles per day on Farrington and Karel) ($8M) Upgrade between North Lake Road and Bibra Drive and intersection at North Lake Road ($10M) West of North Lake Road has residential driveway access, traffic calming, roundabouts and single lane divided carriageway over some of its length (predicted by modelling to have up to 15,000 vehicles per day by 2031) West of North Lake Road two lane divided carriageway with few intersections and no driveway access suitable for freight traffic (predicted to operate at above 80% capacity by 2031) Farrington Road/Murdoch Drive intersection for southern access to Murdoch Activity Centre currently a constraint on development of Murdoch Activity Centre and Murdoch University eastern precinct complex connections to Kwinana Freeway due to compact residential development but necessary to relieve highly trafficked northern access to Murdoch Drive from South Street ($30M) Southern extension of Fiona Wood Road to Farrington Road (including a link to Kwinana Freeway northbound) ($4M) Rapid transit route along South Street deviating through Murdoch Activity Centre infrastructure, traffic management and safety measures for high quality service and use. May require a bus bridge over Kwinana Freeway to achieve Bus Rapid Transit in this congested area ($40M) Internal transit network including Murdoch Rail Station and a loop on to South Street with infrastructure, traffic management and safety measures for high quality service and use ($10M) Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 5

8 Public Transport Leach Highway and South Street Smart traffic signal, bus priority coordination program, intersection treatments This report is based on traffic modelling by Main Roads WA and the City of Cockburn and available public information sources. The implications of not proceeding with the Roe Highway extension and full functionality of the Perth Freight Link are documented and priorities for reassessing the capacity and future performance of the South West Metropolitan Region road network are identified. The sum of the provisional amounts for the high priority road network re-assessment projects identified is $823 million and is considered a conservative estimate based on available information. These provisional amounts do not include the acquisition of land or other road upgrade projects that might be required after more detailed network modelling and road design investigations are completed. Recommendation If the full functionality of the Perth Freight Link is not constructed, the State, in conjunction with the South West Metropolitan Councils, re-assess the South West Metropolitan regional road network without delay to provide long term certainty and capacity for access and mobility by general traffic, road freight transport and public transport services for the integrated and optimum development of the region. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 6

9 Context The route of the Roe Highway extension was originally identified in the Stephenson Hepburn Plan of the 1950s and gazetted in 1963 as a controlled access highway to connect the intermodal terminals in the Kewdale-Forrestfield area to Fremantle Harbour and the Kwinana Industrial Area (Planning, 1963). The route has been retained as part of WA's Metropolitan Regional Scheme (MRS) for over 50 years. The Metropolitan Region Scheme defines the future use and reservations of land in the Perth metropolitan area (Planning, 2015). Directions 2031 and beyond provides a high level spatial framework and strategic plan to guide the detailed planning and delivery of housing, infrastructure and services for future growth of the metropolitan Perth and Peel region. By 2031 the population of Perth and Peel was expected to have grown by between 35 and 40 per cent. Directions 2031 also addressed the need to plan for urban expansion beyond 2031 and initiated scenario planning in order to plan for the land supply and housing needed to accommodate a city of 3.5 million by 2050 (Planning, 2010). Directions 2031 recognised the importance of freight movement to Perth and Peel s economic prosperity identifying Roe Highway as a primary freight road from Kewdale- Forrestfield via Canning Vale to Kwinana Freeway and for the future extension of Roe Highway from Kwinana Freeway to Stock Road and Fremantle Port. The draft Perth and 3.5million strategic land use plan in conjunction with the draft Perth Transport Plan for 3.5 Million People and Beyond (Perth Transport Plan) proposes the further extension of Roe Highway to Stock Road (Roe 8) with Fremantle Tunnel and Fremantle Port Connect links to Fremantle inner harbour. The connection of Roe Highway from Kwinana Freeway through to the Fremantle Port is identified as the Perth Freight Link. The total project cost is estimated to be $1.9 billion (Planning 2016, Transport 2016). The Perth Freight Link completes a high productivity direct freight corridor from Muchea (NorthLink) through Kewdale Freight Hub (Gateway) to Fremantle Harbour. It also forms part of the Reid/Roe Ring Road which is an integral part of the Principal Road Freight Network for Perth and Peel. It is estimated that road freight in Perth has increased by more than 50 per cent over the last 10 years (Bureau of Infrastructure Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE), 2016(1)). The State Opposition, some affected local governments and community groups are opposed to construction of Roe 8 and the Perth Freight Link. This study was focussed on the road transport infrastructure and broader economic and social consequences of Perth Freight Link not proceeding and did not assess the merits or otherwise of the proposal. If the Perth Freight Link does not proceed, the concept of the Principal Road Freight Network in the South West Metropolitan Region and the proposed heavy vehicle charging regime to defray a proportion of the State s infrastructure costs will be foregone. As an immediate consequence heavy road freight between Kewdale/Forrestfield and Cockburn Coastal freight destinations will continue to mix with all other traffic west of Kwinana Freeway on the existing State and local road network. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 7

10 This will exacerbate current and emerging congestion as the population of Perth and Peel grows and vehicular traffic increases on key roads in the South West Metropolitan Region up to the planning horizon of a population of 3.5 million in about The result will be adverse impacts on travel times and reliability, productivity, road safety, urban amenity and the relative attractiveness and value of residential property and activity centre locations in the region. Without the full functionality of the Perth Freight Link, the opportunity for road space to be freed up on South Street for high quality public transport services, such as Bus Rapid Transit or Light Rail Transit, will be compromised and earlier than planned and programmed road expenditure by State and local governments will be necessary to mitigate congestion and maintain acceptable levels of service across the regional road network. The need to upgrade existing State and local roads will have significant disruptive effects on businesses and residents along key routes and at major intersections. Many roads have direct residential driveway access; traffic calming may need to be reviewed if road capacity needs to be increased; and major intersections, such as Stock Road/Leach Highway will require property intrusions and acquisitions with significant impacts on businesses and residents. Without sustained road investment facilitating access at key activity centres and employment locations across the affected region, congestion may also affect business operations, deter further business investment in favour of other metropolitan locations, reduce the attractiveness for job seekers and of retail and service centres for consumers. The optimum development of these centres could be jeopardised. The Commonwealth Government has stated that funding of $1.185 billion allocated for the Perth Freight Link will be withdrawn if the full project does not proceed. Heavy vehicle charging proposed for road freight operators on the Perth Freight Link with an estimated recoup of part of the capital cost of $374 million (December 2014) will be foregone by the State and favourable tenders currently to hand will also be foregone if the Link does not proceed. (Business Case Summary, 2014). The South West Group of Councils support the other far reaching road, rail, public and active transport proposals of the Perth Transport Plan to meet the access and mobility challenges in the South West Metropolitan Region and advocates for additional projects, not included in the Perth Transport Plan, which are necessary for improved public and private transport and traffic management in the region. There is a question of best timing for these projects to support regional development opportunities to the benefit of the community, the region and the State. The most relevant timeframe for the South West Group of Councils and their integrated district and local planning is the by 2.7 million (to 2031) time horizon, i.e. next 10 to 15 years. This report, based predominantly on available public information sources, documents the implications of not proceeding with the Roe Highway extension and full functionality of the Perth Freight Link, and identifies priorities for reassessing the capacity and future performance of the South West Metropolitan Region road network. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 8

11 Perth Freight Link The Perth Freight Link in the South West Metropolitan Region comprises a four-lane dual carriageway extension of Roe Highway (Roe 8), from Kwinana Freeway to Stock Road, major improvements to Stock Road north of Roe Highway extension with a grade separated interchange at Winterfold Road, a connection to Fremantle Inner Harbour, which could comprise a twin bore tunnel (Fremantle Tunnel) between Winterfold Road and High Street and two lanes (Fremantle Port Connect) extending from Canning Highway to Fremantle Inner Harbour. Perth Freight Link is an essential part of the Principal Road Freight Network initiative in the Perth Transport Plan to concentrate a high proportion of the Metropolitan freight task and number of heavy freight vehicles on a designated (and less dense) road network. By 2021, Roe 8 will reduce congestion and improve productivity and road safety by redistributing in excess of 6,900 trucks and 74,100 light vehicles per day from Farrington Road, South Street, Leach Highway and other local roads onto a dedicated free-flowing route. The Fremantle Tunnel option for the Perth Freight Link will enable the movement of approximately 4,700 trucks and 40,300 light vehicles, removing traffic congestion and reducing safety risks, on local roads (Main Roads WA, 2016(1)). Roe 8 Alignment Kwinana Freeway to Stock Road Source: Main Roads Western Australia The efficiency and productivity benefit of the Perth Freight Link for the freight industry derives from the direct connections to ports, airports, intermodal rail freight terminals and major industrial and employment centres with a high standard road with free flowing travel at a steady speed and without impeding light vehicles with stop/start interruptions at traffic signals as occurs on the existing regional roads. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 9

12 The amenity benefit of the Perth Freight Link for the community is the reduced number of purpose designed roads for heavy vehicles (including Restricted Access Vehicles), general knowledge in the community of the designated freight routes and reduced adverse impacts on residential property, road safety and vehicle emissions across the region. The Perth Freight Link is designed for Category 7 Restricted Access Vehicles which can have a maximum length of 36.5 metres and a maximum mass of Tonnes. Freight Corridor to Fremantle Inner Harbour If the Perth Freight Link Roe 8, Fremantle Tunnel and Fremantle Port Connect is not constructed the existing congested road network will have to carry the growing freight task which was to be concentrated on the Perth Freight Link. Heavy vehicles (RAV classified) will have greater interaction with light and as-of-right freight vehicles with congestion effects including frustration for light vehicle drivers with delays by slower decelerating and accelerating heavy vehicles at traffic signals; spread of light and heavy traffic across the network as they seek more reliable travel times to destinations; higher incidence of crashes, injury and damage; and shifting noise, emissions and vibration affecting residents on higher trafficked roads. Any regulation to limit the size or operations of heavy vehicles in an attempt to ameliorate these effects will reduce efficiency and productivity and increase the cost of freight for importers, exporters and local consumers. There is a question of designation of the Principal Road Freight Network in the South West Metropolitan Region without the Perth Freight Link, especially as much of the existing road network will now need to be upgraded to meet increased mixed vehicle traffic management needs. Even with planning for the future Outer Harbour, to be constructed at its earliest by 2027, there is the urgent need now to provide efficient road freight access from across the metropolitan region, including the Kewdale-Forrestfield freight and logistics hub, to Fremantle Inner Harbour and the Western Trade Coast and associated freight destinations. Primary Freight Traffic Flow Implications The primary freight flows, if Perth Freight Link is not constructed, will be: From Kewdale-Forrestfield to Fremantle Inner Harbour: 1. Roe Highway to Kwinana Freeway, Leach Highway, High Street, Stirling Highway From Kewdale-Forrestfield to Bibra Lake, Australian Marine Complex, Western Trade Coast and Kwinana Industrial Area: 2. Roe Highway to Kwinana Freeway to Farrington Road/North Lake Road/Phoenix Road or to Russell Road or to Anketell Road/Thomas Road and on to Stock/Fremantle Rockingham Roads The net effect is to concentrate traffic from Roe Highway (Roe 7) on to Kwinana Freeway both North and South of the Interchange and more traffic pressure on east-west links to Stock Road requiring upgrades to Stock Road. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 10

13 A number of technical reports identify the effect of the Roe 8 link between Kwinana Freeway and Stock Road in dramatically reducing the volume of traffic on other roads in the network through 2020 and Without the full Perth Freight Link, i.e. Roe 8, Fremantle Tunnel and Fremantle Connect, the transfer of traffic to other roads in the network will be even more significant than for construction of Roe 8 alone. The broad implications are reduced reliability in travel times, reduced productivity for trade and freight vehicles, diversion of traffic on to roads affecting residential amenity with adverse safety and pollution effects, unless substantial rationalisation and timely upgrade of the regional road network is undertaken. Growth Expectations Perth and 3.5million summarises primary growth indicators, including: an additional 1.5 million people will live in Perth and Peel by 2050 Perth has one of the highest car use rates in the world with more than three quarters of people travelling to work by car the cost of Perth s congestion was estimated to be nearly $1 billion in 2009; by 2020, it could more than double to $2.1 billion delays in morning peak traffic increased to 45 seconds per kilometre in 2010 compared with 25 seconds per kilometre a decade earlier (Planning, 2016) This rising population is set to increase the number of cars on the road. Four out of five Perth drivers commute by car (Callaghan, 2010). There are an estimated 2.1 million vehicles on WA roads, up 17 per cent from 2009 (Auditor General, 2015). Total vehicle kilometres travelled in Perth is projected to grow from billion in 2015 to billion in 2030 (BITRE, 2015). Truck traffic was 4.89% of overall Perth traffic in 2015 and reaches more than 10% on major freight routes. As early as 2003 the WAPC determined that without the Roe Highway extension the expected growth in traffic volumes to 2031, including heavy vehicles, required substantial investment on Leach Highway, High Street and Stock Road including grade separations (WAPC, 2003). Most of Greater Perth s employment is within an approximate 15 kilometre radius of the CBD. Outside the central CBD, the majority of employment areas are car dependent, increasing pressure on road infrastructure. The linear urban form of the Perth and Peel regions, coupled with its centralised, dispersed employment structure is placing pressure on north-south infrastructure links increasing the potential for higher congestion costs. The majority of residents in outer sub-regions, with the exception of Peel, travel outside their home sub-region for work (Davis, 2016). BITRE reports that commuting times do not expand indefinitely with city size and most residents will limit their commute time to between 31 and 37 minutes. Consequently, congestion that causes commuting times to extend beyond this standard will affect the choices for job seekers and employers a like. This applies when east-west travel in the Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 11

14 South West Metropolitan Region or to the Perth CBD does not readily achieve this standard. It is acknowledged that for more specialist and high skilled jobs individuals are prepared to travel further to work (BITRE, 2016(2)). Main Roads WA modelling predicts that traffic levels on the key routes within the south-west corridor will be 50% higher in 2031 than they were in 2008 (GHD & Meyrick, 2009). The Perth road freight task is estimated to have grown from 4.14 billion tkm in 2005 to 6.89 billion tkm by This is an average annual increase of 5 to 6 per cent (BITRE, 2016(1)). The BITRE predicts base case projections of urban travel, and consequent increases in average traffic delays, resulting in modelled Business-As-Usual values for the avoidable social costs of metropolitan congestion roughly doubling from 2015 levels and with Perth values rising from $2 to $4.4 $5.7 billion by 2030 (BITRE, 2015). Traffic Modelling Traffic modelling by Main Roads WA and the City of Cockburn is available for traffic volumes at 2020 and 2031, both with and without Roe 8. Limited Main Roads WA modelling of traffic volumes was sourced for the Roe 8 and Fremantle Tunnel links. No traffic modelling beyond 2031 is available. Main Roads Main Roads WA South Metro Connect traffic modelling identified 2031 forecast all day, vehicles per day (vpd), traffic reductions With Roe 8 on sections of the following roads compared to the Without Roe 8 case and a comparison with 2006 traffic figures (Main Roads WA, 2016(2)): Without Roe 8 With Roe Kwinana Freeway North of Roe 7 From 120,000 to 115,000 85,000 South of Roe 7 140, ,000 85,000 Leach Highway West of Kwinana Fwy 65,000 60,000 55,000 Stock to North Lake Rd 45,000 40,000 40,000 South Street Murdoch Dr to Kwinana Fwy 75,000 60,000 - North Lake to Murdoch Dr 55,000 35,000 40,000 Stock to North Lake Rd 40,000 35,000 35,000 Winterfold Road Stock to North Lake Rd 15,000 10,000 10,000 Farrington Road West of Karel Ave* 25,000 15,000 20,000 West of Murdoch Dr 35,000 15,000 - East of North Lake Rd 20,000 10,000 15,000 North Lake Road South of Winterfold Rd 35,000 25,000 30,000 Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 12

15 Without Roe 8 With Roe North Lake Road North of Beeliar Dr 25,000 20,000 20,000 South of Leach Hwy 25,000 30,000 25,000 Berrigan Drive** West of Kwinana Fwy 35,000 30,000 20,000 East of Kwinana Fwy 30,000 25,000 15,000 Armadale Rd East of Kwinana Fwy 55,000 50,000 35,000 Beeliar Drive** West of Kwinana Fwy 35,000 30,000 20,000 Stock Rd Leach Hwy to South St 65,000 65,000 25,000 South St to Winterfold Rd 60,000 55,000 25,000 Winterfold Rd to Forrest Rd 65,000 65,000 30,000 Forrest Rd to Spearwood Rd 45,000 65,000 30,000 * Farrington Road with roundabouts and traffic calming ** Local government roads with direct access driveways Bold figures highlight the more significant traffic volume increases for without Roe 8 compared with Roe 8 More recent Main Roads WA modelling shows significant differences in 2031 traffic volumes between Do Nothing and completion of the Roe 8 and the Fremantle Tunnel when compared with the with Roe8/without Roe 8 figures above (Main Roads WA, 2016(1)). Do Nothing Roe 8 plus Fremantle Tunnel Leach Highway Carrington to Stock Rd 44,000 29,000 vpd Stock to North Lake Rd 53,000 40,000 South Street Stock to North Lake Rd 45,000 32,000 Stock Road South to Leach Hwy 31,000 28,000 Carrington Street South to Leach Hwy 37,000 28,000 The South Metro Connect modelled traffic volumes for 2031 on Stock Road between South Street and Leach Highway are 65,000 vpd, while the recent Main Roads WA modelling showed the northbound traffic shared between on Stock and Carrington (68,000 vpd). City of Cockburn The City of Cockburn commissioned its own traffic study specifically within the city boundary in 2012 (ARUP, 2013). The Cockburn District Traffic Model was built for the study based on the City of Cockburn preferred network which differed from the Main Roads WA s view of the future network. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 13

16 Base Year 2011: The ARUP modelling showed peak hour traffic volume to road capacity estimated for the base year of 2011 which confirmed congestion hotspots on: Kwinana Freeway Armadale Road, between Tapper Road and Warton Road Stock Road (various stretches but mostly concentrated to south of Phoenix Road) Beeliar Drive at Cockburn Central and west of Hammond Road Farrington Road (especially between North Lake Road and Bibra Drive) and west of Karel Avenue Berrigan Drive, north of Jandakot Road Jandakot Road, east of Berrigan Drive Most of the links were operating at 80% capacity or greater and it is consistent between the two daily peak periods. The analysis of the City of Cockburn preferred network showed deficiencies around the Kwinana Freeway, Roe Highway and a number of the east west arterial routes. ARUP modelled 2020 peak traffic volumes both with and without a suite of upgrade options and for 2031 assuming the upgrade options were in place. The planned upgrades are listed in the Attachment Peak Traffic Volumes: The 2020 modelling without any changes to the road network showed widespread congestion on many north-south and east-west links operating at a capacity of 80% or higher. These locations included: Kwinana Freeway, excluding the section between Berrigan Road and the North Lake Road overpass North Lake Road between Berrigan Drive and Bibra Drive Cockburn Road (just south of Rockingham Road) Beeliar Drive, between Hammond Road and Spearwood Avenue Stock Road, south of Beeliar Drive Jandakot Road Warton Road Nicholson Road Armadale Road Rowley Road, just west of Liddelow Road Berrigan Drive, north of Jandakot Road Farrington Road Bibra Drive, south of Farrington Road Wattleup Road, east of Pearce Road Russell Road, west of Rockingham Road Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 14

17 2020 Peak Traffic Volumes with Road Upgrades: The upgrades proposed included: North Lake Road bridge over Kwinana Freeway Kwinana Freeway upgraded to three lanes each direction from the north of the model to North Lake Road overpass Roe Highway upgraded to three lanes each direction between Kwinana Freeway and Karel Avenue Beeliar Drive upgraded to two lanes each direction between Kwinana Freeway and Stock Road North Lake Road upgraded to two lanes each direction between Beeliar Drive and Hammond Road Hammond Road/Frankland Avenue upgraded to two lanes each direction between Beeliar Drive and Russell Road Spearwood Avenue upgraded to two lanes each way between Barrington Street to Beeliar Drive Beeliar Drive upgraded to 3 lanes each way between Kwinana Freeway and Wentworth Parade Wentworth Parade four way with Poletti Road Armadale Road upgrade to two lanes each way between Tapper Road and Nicholson Road Berrigan Drive upgraded to two lanes each way between Kwinana Freeway and Jandakot Road Even with the proposed upgrades, there are sections which are forecast to operate above road network capacity. These included: Armadale Road Berrigan Drive, north of Jandakot Road Beeliar Drive, west of Hammond Road Cockburn Road, just south of Rockingham Road North Lake Road, between Bibra Drive and Berrigan Drive Farrington Road 2031 Traffic Volumes: The ARUP modelling for 2031 with the additional preferred network upgrades since 2020 (see Attachment), except Kwinana Freeway, showed Kwinana Freeway remained congested for its full length in the City of Cockburn, with approaches to the Freeway at Farrington Road, Roe Highway and Beeliar Drive operating close to capacity. This reaffirms the challenge to provide sufficient east-west road capacity, especially for freight vehicles. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 15

18 Sensitivity Test Modelling: ARUP conducted sensitivity test modelling with the Roe Highway Extension (Roe 8). The modelling indicated significant relief in all day traffic in 2020 and 2031 respectively, to Farrington Road (up to 20,000 and 40,000 vehicles per day) and Phoenix Road (5,000 and 10,000) in the City of Cockburn. These traffic volume reductions are substantially higher than the Main Roads numbers based on the different analysis and network assumptions in each of the models. Nevertheless, the modelling shows the significant impact on increased traffic volumes on the existing network of not proceeding with Roe 8. Even more relief in all day traffic volumes on the existing network would be achieved with completion of the full Perth Freight Link, i.e. Roe 8 plus Fremantle Tunnel and Fremantle Connect. Without the Perth Freight Link, the transfer of traffic to other roads in the network will be even more significant than indicated by the Roe 8 modelling by both Main Roads and the City of Cockburn. Both the MRWA and City of Cockburn modelling project traffic volumes to 2031 and does not give any indication of the traffic volumes and road network capacity needs to Upgrades Completed on State and Local Roads A review of Main Roads WA capital works programs for the last five years revealed the following projects were funded: Kwinana Freeway Widening between Leach Highway and Roe Highway 3 lanes in each direction $58 million completed in 2013 (Main Roads, 2013(1)) Armadale Road Warton Road intersection upgrade $8.9 million completed in 2014 (Main Roads, 2014(1)) Murdoch Drive South Street Intersection Upgrade additional turn pockets and pocket lengths, extra lane in Murdoch Drive - $15 million (Main Roads, 2014(2)) Kwinana Freeway Southbound Widening Stage One Roe Highway to Armadale Road 4 lanes from Roe Highway to Armadale Road $77.5 million completed in 2015 (Main Roads, 2016(3)) South Street/North Lake Road Intersection safety and vehicle capacity improvement $5 million completed in 2016 (Main Roads, 2016(4)) Kwinana Freeway Southbound Widening Stage Two Armadale Road to Russell Road 3 lanes southbound $14.9 million under construction 2016 (Main Roads, 2016(5)) (More than 52,000 vehicles use this section of Kwinana Freeway each day, already exceeding its capacity, and this figure is expected to rise to 75,000 vehicles by 2021). Armadale Road Upgrade - Tapper Road to Anstey Road duel carriageway and 5 intersection upgrades $116 million (C th) and $29 million (State) in planning Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 16

19 The City of Cockburn s major road projects for the period 2011 to 2016 shows that the roads for which they have responsibility have been programmed and funded consistent with the timing identified for their preferred network as below: Spearwood Ave Sudlow Rd to Barrington St second carriage way 2010/11, $2.374m Beeliar Drive Hammond Rd to Dunraven Ave second carriage way 2011/12, $1.667m Hammond Rd Russell Rd to Bartram Rd second carriage way 2011/12, $2.00m Hammond Rd and Beeliar Dr Intersection & Signals 2012/13, $2.32m Frankland Ave single carriage way 2012/13, $1.432m North Lake Road Kentucky Ave to Freeway - second carriage way 2013/14, $4.10m Berrigan Rd Freeway to Jandakot Rd second carriage way 2013/14, $1.06m Beeliar Drive Wentworth Pde to Freeway - third carriage way 2014/15, $1.77m North Lake Road and Bibra Drive Roundabout 2014/15, $1.06m Beeliar Dr Spearwood Ave to Stock Rd second carriage way 2014/15, $3.68m Berrigan Rd Jandakot Rd to airport second carriage way 2015/16, $8.10m Significant projects in the City of Cockburn preferred 2020 network not yet completed are: Armadale (previously known as North Lake) Road bridge over the Kwinana Freeway Upgrading Kwinana Freeway to three lanes northbound between Farrington Road and Beeliar Drive Roe Highway upgraded to three lanes each direction between Kwinana Freeway and Karel Avenue North Lake Road upgraded to two lanes each direction between Beelia Drive and Hammond Road Road Network Implications Not Proceeding with Perth Freight Link Main Roads WA has confirmed the need for alternative major east-west connections between Kwinana Freeway and Fremantle Rockingham Controlled Access Highway if Roe 8 and the second stage of the Perth Freight Link to Fremantle Port do not proceed. Main Roads WA outlined there will be a need to upgrade these roads in the regional network but advised that technical assessments have not been done and project details with estimated costs are not available (Main Roads WA Correspondence, 2016). The primary roads identified by Main Roads WA, indicated below, are characterised by increasing congestion and road safety issues due to mixed light and heavy vehicle traffic, uncontrolled direct access from private and commercial properties, signalised and unsignalised intersections, public transport stops and high crash rates. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 17

20 The current mixed traffic use of High Street, Leach Highway, South Street, North Lake Road, Farrington Road and Beeliar Drive, has resulted in poor outcomes for public safety and social amenity for the community. This is highlighted by the significantly higher than metropolitan average proportion of crashes involving heavy vehicles and rear-end crashes on these roads. These east-west road links and the immediate implications of these links having to carry the traffic proposed for the Perth Freight Link are: Leach Highway West of Kwinana Freeway, Leach Highway is a constrained road that is not optimised to function as a safe and efficient freight route for the following reasons: In excess of 180 driveway connections from private properties. In addition, battle axe subdivisions have been approved at the rear of many existing houses, which have created additional driveways further exacerbating the situation More than 20 road junctions without traffic light control Eight sets of traffic lights within a distance of 8 km. The distance between the lights varies from as far as 1,300 m to as little as 300 m. 28 bus stops between Kwinana Freeway and Stock Road, of which only two have an embayment. All the other stops require the bus to stop in the traffic lane. Based on these factors alone, it is clear the function of Leach Highway as a freight route and as a major regional arterial road cannot be sustained without severely compromising the level of service for all traffic (Main Roads WA, 2013(2)). Between 2009 and 2013 more than 72% of crashes on Leach Highway were rear-end collisions. That is significantly higher than the metropolitan region average of 43.5%. The current stop-start traffic is a major contributing factor. The metropolitan average of all crashes involving heavy vehicles is 5.4%. There are two southern suburb 'hot spots' that Roe 8 will positively impact. 11.1% of crashes involve heavy vehicles on Leach Highway between Stirling Highway and Kwinana Freeway. It is estimated that Roe 8 will divert approximately 2,000 heavy vehicles from this section of Leach Highway 31% of crashes involve heavy vehicles on Roe Highway between Kwinana Freeway and Willeri Drive. This section of road is subject to heavy congestion at the current Roe Highway termination point, which likely accounts for the very high proportion of crashes involving heavy vehicles. A free flowing connection to Roe 8 will reduce congestion at this location. In addition to these 'Hot spots', the Leach Highway / North Lake Road Intersection ranks 11th worst in Western Australia for crash frequency. The grade separation needed at this intersection will have significant land, business and local amenity impacts. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 18

21 Upgrading Leach Highway between Kwinana Freeway and North Lake Road The section has five signalised and many uncontrolled intersections, turning lanes, driveways and in traffic lane bus stops. A grade separation at North Lake Road and Leach Highway will be required. The current safety and amenity issues will need to be addressed and will come with substantial disruption to businesses and residents, and property impacts, in completing a complex design and construction solution for increased long term capacity for cars, trucks and buses. Leach Highway/Stock Road In 2003 the WAPC considered the impact on Stock Road of not proceeding with the Roe Highway extension due to increased traffic volumes on existing roads and grade separations at Stock and South Street, Forrest Road, Phoenix Road, Spearwood Avenue and Russell Road by Consequences identified were greater impacts on community access, significant changes on direct property access to properties in the vicinity of the grade separation required at Leach Highway and Stock Road and effects on business viability and emergency access to and from the O Connor Industrial Area (WAPC 2003). Main Roads WA advise that grade separation will have significant land impacts on surrounding properties and to properties along the section of Stock Road north of South Street. The grade separation is complex due to difficult topography, the requirement to achieve grades and curves suitable for steady speed by high productivity freight vehicles and the intensive commercial development around the intersection. The project will be costly with the need to acquire business and residential properties and design the road network to provide for through traffic, commercial centre traffic circulation and separate local property access. As part of the Perth Freight Link project, some planning was done for improvements to the Leach Highway / Stock Road intersection (Main Roads WA, 2015). Main Roads WA sent letters to 20 residents informing them that acquisition of their properties may be required. Main Roads WA s attempt to avoid surprises did little to satisfy residents about certainty on future road planning and heightened community concern as reported in the media. "We knew the intersection of Stock Road and Leach Highway was going to be upgraded, but never have we ever received notification that our house was directly in that line," Mrs Smirke said (ABC News 2015). This grade separation project will be required if Roe Highway is extended to Stock Road and the Fremantle Tunnel, second stage of the Perth Freight Link, does not go ahead. Upgrading Leach Highway/High Street intersection and from East of Carrington Street to Stirling Highway The efficiency of freight movements and safety risks on the Leach Highway/High Street freight network will worsen in future. Modelling suggests that if no action is taken to address existing constraints, average weekday traffic volumes on the cross section of High Street east of Stirling Highway will increase by almost 37 per cent between 2011 and 2031 (including over 3,100 heavy vehicles, a 27 per cent increase) (Main Roads WA, 2012). Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 19

22 According to Main Roads WA, 413 crashes occurred on the stretch of High Street between Stirling Highway and Carrington Street in the 5 years to December 2011 (including crashes at the intersections of Stirling Highway and Carrington Street). Around 56 per cent of crashes on this part of the network involved major damage to property while rear end collisions were the most common (65%). Notably, 76 crashes occurred where local roads intersect with High Street, which is indicative of the stop-start nature of traffic flow and heightened safety risks on the link. Additionally, the intersection of High Street and Stirling Highway recorded 184 crashes. As a means of capturing those impacts, the cost of crashes along the entire High Street freight network was estimated at $11.5 million, utilising Main Roads WA Willingness to Pay approach. In 2013, Main Roads WA conducted a public information session to address the poor road standard for major traffic movements and the high crash rate. Leach Highway would be upgraded to a 4 lane dual carriageway standard along with a road reserve for 6 lanes beyond The intersection of High Street and Stirling Highway would be realigned. High Street west of Stirling Highway would become a local road. This project was stated to be necessary and independent of whether Roe Highway was extended to Stock Road. The project was announced in May 2013 as equally funded by the State and Federal Governments with a project budget of $118 million (Main Roads WA, 2013(2)). This funding has now been incorporated into the proposed joint expenditure for the Perth Freight Link. Upgrading Leach Highway east of Kwinana Freeway to Bungaree Road This section will need consideration for a higher standard road and upgrading of the seven signalised intersections plus the interchange at Kwinana Freeway. The same uncontrolled and driveway access issues also apply on Leach Highway, east of Kwinana Freeway. South Street South Street is a 6 lane divided carriageway between Kwinana Freeway and Plane Tree Grove, O Connor with in traffic lane bus stops and no controlled pedestrian crossings except at the few signalised intersections. Between Plane Tree Grove and Carrington Street the four lane road has direct access from residential and commercial properties, in lane bus stops and uncontrolled intersections. The 2009 GHD study found that a low level of service will be experienced at all six surveyed intersections along South Street by 2031 (GHD/Meyrick 2009). As an alternative to movements between Kwinana Freeway and Fremantle Rockingham Controlled Access Highway, South Street will need to be reviewed and upgraded to deal with increased traffic, including freight vehicles. This may preclude the opportunity for a Bus Rapid Transit or Light Rail Transit service on this route, which is in direct conflict with current planning, including the draft Perth Transport Plan, to reduce traffic and heavy vehicles on South Street so high quality public transport services can connect Murdoch Activity Centre through to Fremantle. Greg Martin Transport Strategies October 2016 Page 20