THE PILOT SHORTAGE IGNORE IT, AND WE LL ALL PAY THE PRICE..

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Anissa Cook
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1 THE PILOT SHORTAGE IGNORE IT, AND WE LL ALL PAY THE PRICE.. There has been a lot of hinting in the media lately about an impending shortage of commercial airline pilots in the near future, not just for this country, but worldwide. It seems to get a moment of attention and then fade into the background amid a host of more pressing headlines. The question remains however, is this forecasted shortage fact or fiction? The signs are here today, and the risk of a shortfall will continue to get worse over time. The precursors of a pilot shortage are already here as regional carriers are now having to cancel flights each month because they simply do not have enough qualified pilots. According to Travel Weekly Jan. 4 th, 2016, Republic Airways (which operates as Delta Connection, United Express and American Eagle) have experienced monthly cancellation rates as high as 9% and at SkyWest cancellation rates are as high as 5-7%. This may not be enough of an impact yet for the public to notice, but as regional airlines pull out of routes and cancel more flights, the small and mid-sized communities they serve will be greatly affected. The major US pilot union, ALPA (Airline Pilot Association) sees this problem being caused more by inadequate pay for regional pilots. They contest that potential pilots are making an economic decision not to join regional carriers. They cite that starting average regional pilot salaries of $22,000, do little to offset the initial pilot training costs of between $150,000 and $200,000. Picture Source:

2 ALPA Aviation Safety Chairman Chuck Hogeman said..there is a shortage of licensed, qualified pilots who are willing to work for some of the pay and benefits offered by some of the airlines and many [regional carriers] that actually need those pilots. Considering that many of the major airlines use experienced regional pilots as a key source for filling future pilot needs, the shortage problem will inevitably trickle upward to filling pilot seats at the majors. First year pilot salaries at U.S. Regional Carriers - Source: According to a July, 2015 Boeing Pilot Outlook projection, the worldwide demand for pilots over the next 20 years is: Asia Pacific 226,000 pilots Europe 95,000 pilots North America 95,000 pilots Latin America 47,000 pilots Middle East 60,000 pilots Africa 18,000 pilots Russia / CIS 17,000 pilots That adds up to more than a half million pilots needed by the year 2035! Currently (FAA data) 137,658 ATP pilots with valid Class 1 Medical Certificates 105,000 Instrument Licensed and Commercial Licensed Pilots, that could potentially get ATPs relatively soon 2,400 qualified pilots leave the military services each year FAA grants approx 6,400 new ATPs each year Dan Atkins (Travel Weekly Article Jan. 4, 2016) who is a transportation economist and has set up a consulting firm Flight Path Economics two years ago in anticipation of the pilot shortage says, It is not going to get better, it is only going to get worse. It s almost like a contagion.

3 The Traditional Path to becoming a pilot A typical career path for a pilot is through a college or university, followed by either military or a civilian flight training. Most of the time, this leads to a major airline position. Both paths begin with the student pilot flying smaller training aircraft and working their way up via various ratings and certifications. These ratings allow for qualification in larger and more complex aircraft as well as more demanding flight conditions (inclement weather, night, etc). Eventually, pilots graduate from copilots and become aircraft commanders or Captains of small to medium sized aircraft. On the military side, this is done through various training and operational flight organizations (squadrons, commands, etc). For the civilian side, this experience is typically done through smaller regional carriers. A regional carrier is one that operates with certain types of aircraft to fit regional service needs. They operate usually smaller aircraft and function as an affiliate airline, (feeder), for the mainline carriers such as United Express operated by SkyWest, Delta Connection operated by ExpressJet or Compass, or American Eagle operated by Envoy. Or, they can operate independently as their own brand from small community to small community. After approximately 8 years of flying experience and 5000 hours of flight time, pilots can apply to a mainline carrier and go through an arduous screening process, in hopes of getting hired. A mainline carrier (ie, major airline) operates using its main aircraft on various routes and locations. It is not a regional alliance or code share partner. Once at the majors, pilot careers are relative-seniority based. That means you get assigned a number based on the date you were hired of how many pilots are above you in seniority at that airline. For example, if the airline has 5,500 pilots when you get hired, your seniority number is 5,501. That number changes over time as pilots above you retire, medical out, or leave the company. But the fact is, whenever you start at an airline, you must start at the bottom and work your way up. That s why pilots don t typically switch airline companies very often. If you switch, its back to the bottom you go. And where you are on that relative seniority list affects everything about your job including bidding your flight schedule, your days off, assigned base, assigned aircraft type, and crew position (First Officer or Captain). Your quality of life and specific jobs directly depend on the strength and growth of the airline, fleet and seat positioning on the seniority list, available base options, route structures, type of flying, legalities, and contract factors. So, where are all the new pilots? The industry impacts over the last 15 years since the Sept 11 th attacks, airline bankruptcies, mergers, and pilot layoffs have had quite an effect on the pilot profession. It has caused a shift in the attitudes and willingness of potential pilots to stick it out long enough to make it to the majors. In many cases, they decide to not even start down the road to commercial flying or change their career choice after

4 learning what they will have to endure both financially and quality of life. Pilot training, aircraft rental, simulator costs, and instructor fees are very costly while salaries at the regional carriers are typically very low. Earning those wings and ratings will require sacrifice for many years prior to getting on with a major airline. That is, IF they even get hired. Meanwhile, the major airlines are continuing to try and find ways to keep costs and open seat capacity down, in order to keep profits up. So, there is little appetite for airlines to increase investment in their pilot training curriculum. In fact, many airlines seek to shift more of the training burden onto self-study type training vs the traditional instructor-led classroom and simulator training. Combine this with the dynamics of what has happened in the airline industry over the last 15 years and you can start to see why the new pilot pool is drying up. The Sept 11 th attacks started a downward spiral for many of the airlines economically. Many were forced into bankruptcy and had to furlough (layoff) thousands of pilots. Some of those pilots found new careers and never came back. Others came back to find themselves stagnating in their careers, being denied the ability to upgrade or rise in relative seniority. There were many reasons for this. The mandatory retirement age was extended from age 60 to age 65, so senior pilots could delay retirement. Mergers between airlines caused pilots to be effectively pushed down on the relative seniority list as pilots from the two airlines were integrated together. Meanwhile, airlines were frantically trying to reduce capacity in order to drive up demand. This meant parking or retiring aircraft and shrinking the size of their fleet, so fewer pilots were needed. Also, as fleets shrank, some pilots were bumped down from more lucrative international flying on wide-bodied aircraft to flying on lower paying domestic flying on narrow-bodied aircraft. This fleet shrinkage also brought hiring to a near standstill for new pilots. Some regional pilots got tired of waiting and enduring for years for their shot at the majors, and simply chose to do something else. Student pilots also saw the bottleneck to get into the major airlines someday and changed course as well. Now, the pipeline has begun to dry up. Why is this happening? According to ALPA (Airline Pilot s Association ALPA.org) article on this subject, it is a pilot pay, benefit and career path shortage. Normally, it costs anywhere from $150,000 to $200,000 depending on the university and aviation training programs you attend. Starting pay for a pilot at the regional carriers can be as low as $22,000 per year. There is very little ROI (Return on Investment) for the pilot and it can take as much as years to begin making any financial headway. It is extremely hard for students to get loans to cover their flight training expenses and unlike many of the loan forgiveness programs for doctors, pilots do not have anything like these. Enrollments of schools and training programs are way down since 2002 according to an Aviation Week article (Feb 16, 2015) and military pilot service commitments have become longer.

5 People are no longer mesmerized by the old days of the glamorous life styles of pilots because they see the tough working schedules of being away from home, family, and friends, for long periods of time. The pay and benefits do not make the career worth the time, effort and responsibility put into it up front. Since September 11 th, 2001, the instability of the industry along with failures and mergers of the airlines have steered many away. Risk vs reward must be measured. With most jobs, you are not risking your life or the lives of hundreds. CNN had said that airline pilot was the most stressful job in a report 4 years ago. A follow up report 3 years ago, ranked the job as the third most stressful career behind Iraqi war soldier and bomb ordinance diffuser. Because career progression is not a guarantee and due to the industry turbulence, many pilots do not make it through the ranks into the major airlines. After the Colgan Air Flight 3407 on Feb 12, 2009 near Buffalo, New York, laws were changed requiring co- pilots from having a commercial license and a minimum of 250 flying hours to having an Airline Transport Rating and 1500 hours of experience to fly for a regional airline. That accident was in direct result of lack of experience, poor training, long work hours, and pilot fatigue. Although this ruling makes the public safer with more experienced pilots at the controls, it further restricts the pipeline of qualified pilots flying for the regional s. Pilots at the mainline carriers are retiring so these majors are swallowing up the qualified pilots from the regional s and military to backfill these positions. The mandatory retirement age was 60 years but with the economic downturn and the devastation of the industry in past decade, the pilots pushed to have the age raised to 65 in order to have a chance to recover financial losses endured to help the ailing airlines. In a USA Today article (Aug 27 th, 2015) Boeing projects that 558,000 new pilots will be needed worldwide and 95,000 in the US alone. Bill Swelbar of InterVistas Consulting says that the number of retiring pilots will continue to escalate from 1200 now to 2500 per year in As Earl Poland, a Captain for a major airline and soon to retire says, as soon as you walk off the flight deck that last time, you might as well take your brain, full of knowledge and experience, and throw it in the trash. You cannot use what you have built over decades for anything else and you cannot pass it along to the more junior pilots. Swelbar and Atkins expect that the pilot shortage problem will get worse quickly with being the tipping point.

Solutions Regional airlines and low cost operators are coming up with ways to help the shortage by creating programs that streamline pilots from training schools through to instructing positions,

6 Solutions Regional airlines and low cost operators are coming up with ways to help the shortage by creating programs that streamline pilots from training schools through to instructing positions, then into pilot seats with the regional airlines when they reach 1500 hrs. It is sort of like one stop shopping for the initial part of their careers. Some are helping with tuition reimbursement and placement programs. In an Airways News article (Sept 4, 2015) some regional airlines such as Great Lakes are actually removing passenger seats in their B1900D s. This allows them to remain under the minimum passenger requirement to avoid the 1500 hr pilot experience necessity and keep flying their routes. Regional airlines are pushing hard against the 1500 hr FAA requirement with Congress saying that they will have to cancel flights to congressional district locations if there is no relief soon. The few exceptions to this requirement is a 750 hr minimum if the pilot is military trained and 1000 hr minimum if the pilot is a 4 year graduate of the specific aviation university training programs according to USA Today article (Aug 27, 2015). The Wall Street Journal article (Nov 26, 2015) highlights a new program that Jet Blue Airlines is trying to get approved. They would take students who have no flying experience and train them, emphasizing different aspects of flying than traditional training programs. The pilots are still required to log 1500 hrs and must reach specific milestones over the 4- year period. Once they have paid for their training and met the goals, they are promised a job with the airline.

7 Concerns The mainline and regional airlines could be picky in the past, only choosing the cream of the crop pilots to fly for their operation. These pilots were selected with extensive backgrounds, experience levels, interviews, simulator rides, and medical exams. Now, it is becoming a race just to get any qualified pilots in the seats. Hiring first officers straight into the regional or mainline right seats with minimal experience does not allow the pilot to develop leadership skills and experience they need to make the best and safest decisions. Most of us at the majors were hired with at least 8 years and 5000 hours of flying and command experience. This is the reason why there have been very few accidents among the US major carriers in the last 20 years. Even with the fight to keep the 1500 hr minimum requirement for safety, the argument of quality versus quantity still applies hrs of flying a banner in clear, blue skies is a lot different than flying cargo at night in all weather conditions, or teaching pilot to fly all levels, or flying in crew military operations. Internationally, they do not have the same requirements we do here in the U.S. for pilot experience level and training. If you take a pilot with 300 hrs of flying in basic conditions and simplistic airplanes, no college education, minimal screening and put them in the right seat of a large jet with hundreds of passengers, accidents happen. They have a lack of knowledge, experience, command, situational awareness, and skill. They can sit there and perform basic procedures as long as no issues arise out of the ordinary. But ask any seasoned pilot, and we will tell you that things go wrong often. We are continuously trying to make the safest decisions under ever changing circumstances and continuously dynamic variables. Adjusting to the elements at play and keeping the passengers safe is our main job. Accidents such as TransAsia Airways GE235, Air Asia 8501, Asiana 214, Air France 447, Germanwings 9525, Colgan Air 3407, etc. should never happen again and yet we continue to cut back training and pilot experience. We are saving a buck at the expense of safety. We should be demanding highly experienced, superior skilled, well trained, and rested pilots at the controls of our jets.

Industry Pilot Demand. December 2017

Industry Pilot Demand. December 2017 Industry Pilot Demand December 2017 Cyclical Pilot Demand Over the Last 40 Years Is This Time Different? Last 40 years saw two major hiring booms and one prolonged slump Primary driver for hiring in late