Global Pilot Supply & Ab Initio Training Landscape

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Jasmine Washington
6 years ago
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1 Global Pilot Supply & Ab Initio Training Landscape First Officer Todd Lisak ALPA Training Council Chairman Captain Paul Ryder ALPA National Resource Coordinator

2 Global Pilot Demand By Region Source: Boeing 2

3 Elements of a Sustainable Pilot Supply Pipeline Any country or region should consider the following: Military flight training providers University & General Aviation civilian training Civil use airspace for training Access to Civil use airports Climate and terrain suitable for training Funding/financing of training costs Promotion of Pilot Careers and the available training pathways ROI- Compensation, Work/life Balance, Career progression 3

4 In the US the Discussion is focused on Pilot Supply vs. Applicant Supply Some air carriers have and continue to experience a challenge in meeting recruitment & retention goals The carriers who have taken steps to address compensation, work/life balance, and Career Progression are not experiencing the same issues. The Fee-for-Departure carriers are competing with other pilot employers for candidates i.e. corporate, private, Part 135 charter/air taxi even instruction and overseas opportunities Today prospective pilots are an educated consumer, now more than ever 4

5 The Pilot Demand Outlook 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 Estimated Demand for Pilots over the next 10 years 20,000 10, Boeing (2016 North America) Airbus (2016 North America) FAA Audries/Embraer BLS University of North Dakota (2016 US) The Forecast Demand for Pilots ranges from 1900 per year to 5200 per year

6 ATP-ME Issuances Cumulative ATP Certificates Issued (with restricted ATP) since July ,000 25,000 25,977 2,190 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 2,796 10, ,658 16,590 1,203 5,146 7, Starting July 15 Initial ATP - ME Restricted ATP 25,000+ ATP in last 3.5 years *FAA, airplane multiengine land

7 Forecast Demand vs. Supply 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Estimated Number of ATP and ATP-R over the next 10 years 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Boeing (2016 North America) Airbus (2016 North America) FAA Estimated Demand for Pilots over the next 10 years Audries/Embraer BLS University of North Dakota (2016 US)

8 Active Certificates Held 175, , , , , , ,000 Estimated Active Airmen Certificates Held 105,000 95,000 FAA Forecast 85,000 75, E 2017E 2018E Commercial Airline Transport Student 1/ 1/ In July 2010, the FAA issued a rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certificates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 to 60 months. This resulted in the increase in active student pilots to 119,119 from 72,280 at the end of Total ATP Certificates held continues to rise 8

9 Airline Pilot Pathways 9

10 Ab Initio- From The Beginning From the beginning a pilots training is focused on a commercial training pathway to becoming an airline ready pilot. Used by airlines around the globe. University Training, Screening and selection, Immersive training, mentoring, and advanced training resources are key components. Traditionally an airline sponsored program employment as core element. 10

11 Ab initio implementation around the world Used for decades by airlines such as Lufthansa. Interest and success in the Ab Initio may be driven by: Cost sharing with the Airline Providing a clear path for success Meets an expected timeline for completion Consistency of training output Airline labor-related goals

12 Ab initio Landscape in the U.S. Only one airline in the US currently Still unproven if financially viable or if pilots produced are acceptable Ab initio may provide an additional supply for what is most important, a highly skilled, experienced, motivated and Safe pilot. As proposed, ab initio programs would conform to the current FAA regulations as well.

13 Experience versus Procedural Knowledge Pilots accepted into the program have a high aptitude and level of intelligence. Airline specific procedures can be easily duplicated with study, especially if those are the only set of procedures they know. Experience and judgment must be obtained over time Flying. Example : Captain incapacitation, visual approach, with instrument back-up. 13

14 Elements of a successful Ab Initio Program Detailed application and screening process ground school Ratings obtained in progressive order Private Pilot through R-ATP or ATP Pilot Mentoring Company interaction with pilots Progression into more complex aircraft Meaningful flying in the N.A.S., including significant solo experience.

15 Elements of a successful Ab Initio Program cont. To have success in these programs: Data collection to use to adjust program Instructor/Evaluator training & CQ qualification appropriate to the training providing (FOI, 121 AQP)

16 Questions? 16

Industry Update. October 2018

Industry Update. October 2018 Industry Update October 2018 Economic Impact of Civil Aviation In 2014, civil aviation generated $1.6 trillion in economic activity and supported 10.6 million jobs, with $446.8 billion in earnings. Civil