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1 Edition 96 SEPTEMBER 2016 aad 2016 preview PRICE: United States Dollars $3.50 South African Rands R39.50 Kenyan Shillings KES Nigerian Naira NGN600.00

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4 Ed' s no te... September 2016 EDITION 96 African Airlines Overview 6 IATA on Safety & Tracking 8 Airlines - Mike Gough 10 Bush Pilot - Hugh Pryor 14 Bush Flying - Bat Hawk Ops 20 Project Solaris flies Year Airliner Forecast 24 Defence Notes - Darren Olivier 28 Airlines - Keith Mwanalushi 34 News - Farnborough Sales 38 Airports - OR Tambo 42 AAD Preview 44 Back Pages 47 AIRPORT security has long been something of a joke in African airports. It is not unheard of for airports to suffer power failures and to see the security officials using a stick to push baggage through inert scanners. Even in first world countries there is increasing suspicion that the elaborate security measures, requiring the removal of shoes and belts, are more for show, than to prevent terrorists bombing aircraft. The Economist Magazine says, There are legitimate doubts about how much the kind of security currently inflicted on passengers really contributes to their safety. The prohibition on carrying liquids on board, introduced in response to the method of mixing chemicals to explosive effect revealed by the 2006 plot, is a case in point. If security staff find illicit liquids that a passenger has not presented, they deliver a ticking off and confiscate the containers, but still allow the passenger to fly. Despite the mild consequences, it appears that nobody has been apprehended trying to get liquids on board to combine into a bomb in almost a decade. Nor have there been any reports of a would-be Shoe bomber being intercepted despite the requirement for passengers to remove their shoes, brought in after Mr Reid s cack-handed effort. It could be that both security measures are so effective that they have completely deterred would-be terrorists from trying these methods again. Or it could be that they are essentially a performance to reassure passengers. The Economist points out that most experts incline towards the latter view. Aviation Security International calls it security theatre as opposed to security reality. America s Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has a budget of more than US$7 billion a year and access to the most advanced scanning technologies money can buy. Critics say it has not foiled a single terrorist plot or caught a single terrorist in the past decade. In June last year, TSA s acting head was reassigned after a so-called Red Team succeeded in getting fake bombs and weapons through the screening process in 67 out of 70 tests carried out in airports across America. So now, in addition to airport security checks, there are elaborate systems being put in place to pre-identify high risk passengers. In July, IATA hosted a three day training conference in Johannesburg on Aviation Security for Africa. The crux of the training concerned Advanced Passenger Information (API) and interactive Passenger Name Records (ipnr). Integrating these systems is the next big challenge, and IATA s Bob Davidson has commended South Africa s Department of Home Affairs for tackling it with vigour. There are plenty of talk shops. This conference followed the Conference on Aviation Security held in April in Windhoek which called upon all African States to implement API by the end of This is reassuring to passengers not worried about Big Brother watching them. But the question remains does it deter terrorists? Guy Leitch Editor Publisher Flyer and Aviation Publications cc Managing Editor Guy Leitch guy@flightcommag.com Advertising Sales Wayne Wilson wayne@saflyermag.co.za 70 Address 66 Albatross Drive, Fourways, 2191 Tel +27 (0) P O Box Layout & Design Bryanston, 2021 Fax Emily-Jane Kinnear South Africa +27 (0) FlightCom All rights reserved worldwide. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any means, electronically, mechanically, photocopied, recorded or otherwise without the express permission of the copyright holders.

FRICA AEROSPACE & DEFENCE THE LARGEST Aerospace & Defence Exhibition in Africa A display of

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5 FRICA AEROSPACE & DEFENCE THE LARGEST Aerospace & Defence Exhibition in Africa A display of the world s air, sea and land technologies Youth Development Programme attracting young people to the aerospace & defence industry sqm Indoor and outdoor exhibition space Dedicated media centre with media from all over the world Civil & Military Aircrafts on Static Display 2016 AT A GLANCE National Pavillions Comprising of countries and government departments DELEGATION PROFILE Ministers Secretaries for Defence Chiefs of Armed Forces Chiefs of Armies Chiefs of Air Forces Chiefs of Navies Acquisition and Procurement Officials CENTURION, PRETORIA UNLOCKING AFRICA S AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE POTENTIAL OUR PARTNERS:

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Airlines Words: Guy Leitch AFRICAN AIRLINES OVERVIEW The much hoped for, and indeed hyped, takeoff of African airlines seems to have stalled on the runway.

8 Airlines Words: Guy Leitch AFRICAN AIRLINES OVERVIEW The much hoped for, and indeed hyped, takeoff of African airlines seems to have stalled on the runway. IATA, supported by various studies, predicted that over the past five years Africa would be the third fastest-growing region in the world in terms of international traffic, with an average growth rate of 6.1 percent compared to the global average of 5.8 percent. This was not far behind the 7.9 per cent for the Middle East and 6.9 percent for Asia Pacific. The big hope for Africa is based on an emerging middle class, strong economic growth and increasing urbanisation. THE AFRICAN RENAISSANCE One of the major beneficiaries of this African renaissance was expected to be the airlines, as air transportation plays a vital role in a country s growth by powering the convergence of goods and people. IATA reckons the contribution of air transport exceeds that of road transportation sevenfold. Growth in air transportation has directly been mapped into economic growth due to creation of direct and indirect jobs in the aviation industry and auxiliary sectors such as tourism and other service sectors. Expansion in air transportation creates market opportunities for local entrepreneurs by creating regional and global economic centres. IATA says that in 2010, the aviation industry in Africa supported about seven million jobs (including 257,000 direct jobs) through the impact on travel and tourism, which translated into US$67.8 billion of the continent s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Forecasts indicate that over the next 20 years, job creation by the industry is projected at 879,000. Emirates in Zimbabwe. Middle Eastern carriers are out-smarting and out-manoeuvring airlines in Africa. Currently, only 10 percent of Africans travel by air, but given the current rate of economic growth and emergence of the middle class, there is a high demand for services linked to air transportation. In recent years, growing alliances with counterparts in other regions of the world have played an important role in the development of the African aviation industry. These alliances have permitted African airlines to gain access to new long haul routes, resulting in higher economies of scale and skills exchange. But Africa is massive, encompassing about 11.6 million square miles, or 30 million square kilometres. That s three times larger than the United States. The vast distances between countries become quite real for those who travel regularly from one region to another, and they are compounded by poor land-based infrastructure. Many roads are either unpaved or crumbling outside of urban areas, and rail service is scant. African aviation should be set to boom. However, the three Gulf Carriers and Turkish Airlines are out-smarting and out-manoeuvring African airlines to take advantage of this growth. The rapid expansion in Africa s aviation industry is hampered by many factors. Boeing s VP Sales in Africa, Miguel Santos, at a conference in Johannesburg pointed out that lack of skills, poor safety and security, lack of adequate resources and infrastructure, and lack of regulation and government actions, are among the main 6 FlightCom Magazine

9 constraints the industry faces. Fortunately, the safety record is improving, with 2015 having been a good year. In 2011 the number of air traffic accidents was nine times higher than the global average. IATA, in conjunction with the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), and other organisations have committed to supporting the Africa Strategic Improvement Action Plan of the African Union. This plan encourages African governments to foster regulatory oversight through the adoption of globally accepted safety and security standards, in particular IATA s IOSA standard. Lack of investment in ground-based infrastructure is a further key limiting factor to airline growth. Poor navigation aids and airport infrastructures, lack of physical and human resources and lack of connectivity are the key challenges. OPEN SKIES Despite the growing awareness of the role that the aviation industry could play in the development of the continent, the industry is still hindered by protectionism. Despite a solemn declaration by 21 African states for increased liberalisation, many African governments are still reluctant to open their skies, fearing foreign competition could undercut their national airlines, many of which are already loss making. Nigerian writer, Wole Shadare, says that these challenges require governments to enhance regulation of aerospace management, consumer protection and safety of airlines. Lack of aviation experts and skills, high airport taxes and fees, the weak connectivity and restrictions on transit visas and facilities add to the menu of impediments affecting Africa s aviation. HIGH FARES Shadare says, Africa is home to some of the most expensive airfares on earth. Aviation officials, including IATA s CEO, Tony Tyler, and African Airlines Association (AFRAA) Secretary-General, Elijah Chingosho, noted in June that these problems are rooted in psychology; state officials simply don t see aviation as a high-priority industry, perceiving it instead as a luxury. In that context, air traffic becomes little more than an opportunity to pinch some extra revenue. African airfares are subject to excessive levies in the form of airport fees, jet fuel taxes, excise duties and more. Fuel prices are particularly punitive. An AFRAA report last year noted, Globally, fuel accounts for about 36 percent of an airline s operational cost, whilst in Africa this ranges from 45 to 55 percent. Fuel prices at some stations in Africa are over twice the world average. Then there are passenger taxes. An international traveller landing at Ambouli, Djibouti, should expect to pay up to US$85.89 in extra fees, the highest on the continent. In Accra, Ghana, it s US$75. In Nairobi, Kenya, it s US$40. Other countries airport fees are generally far less. At Charles de Gaulle in Paris, taxes and charges don t reach US$14. In Singapore, they amount to about US$11. Mumbai charges less than US$6. Whereas, a two-hour flight from Accra to Sierra Leone can be between US$800 and US$1,500. SAFETY Safety is perhaps the biggest obstacle the continent faces when it comes to attracting new passengers. Africa s record is bleak compared to the rest of the world. It was home to only three percent of worldwide departures last year, but suffered 22 percent of fatal airline accidents, according to the Aviation Safety Network. However, we are seeing progress in the form of the 2012 Abuja Declaration, which set ambitious goals for improved air safety. The agreement calls for more international cooperation and adherence to common protocol, like the IATA Operational Safety Audit, which all IATA members must meet. The benefits of such collaboration in terms of a world class safety record are clear. Of the 25 sub-saharan IOSA registered airlines, not one experienced a Western-built jet hull loss last year. So it seems that the much hoped for takeoff may have been delayed, but gradually things are improving. Let s hope the safety record for IOSA airlines stays good and that the solemn declaration is solemnly acted upon and not just given lip service by recidivist national carriers. African states incorrectly see aviation as a luxury. Ambouli Airport, Djibouti has the highest passenger taxes on the continent - US$85.89

10 Airlines Words: Guy Leitch IATA on Safety & Tracking During its 2016 Annual General Meeting IATA leaders gave specific press briefings. The first briefing was on airline safety performance for 2015, measured through the IATA Operational Safety Audit, IOSA was a good year, albeit not quite as good as 2014, which was the safest year in commercial aviation history closed with 0.32 jet hull losses per one million flights over the 0.27 recorded for In contrast, the 2013 rate was 0.41 hull losses over one million flights. The suicide, are excluded from these accident statistics. The turboprop level was worse at 1.29 hull losses per million flights, but it was a large improvement compared to previous years of 3.13 and It must be noted that the sample size for turboprops is much smaller than for jets, therefore one hull loss will affect the statistics disproportionately. It is to IATA s great credit that there is a major difference in accidents for infrastructure meet the highest industry standards. Consequently airlines which are audited show a clear advantage in air safety. The global accident rate over the years was three times better than for non-iosa airlines. The IATA Safety Audit is becoming a key industry qualification, especially for African airlines. Of the 404 airlines that are scrutinised under IOSA, 144 are non-iata members, so the Operators Safety Audit has grown larger than IATA itself rate was a 30% improvement over the average rate of the years Note that deliberate acts of terrorism, such as the Malaysian 777 losses and the Germanwings Jet hull losses during 2015 per million flight hours. Source: IATA. airline operators that are part of the IATA Operator Safety Audits (IOSA) compared to those that are not. The IOSA programme checks that the airline s management and AIRLINE TRACKING IATA says it is actively supporting the recent ICAO decisions on airliner tracking. In November 2015, ICAO made all air transport operators responsible for tracking their own aircraft in their area of operations. ICAO currently requires that the tracking happens every 15 minutes during normal operations. As of March 2016, an amendment was approved that shortens this to one minute intervals when a set of criteria has established that the aircraft is no longer operating normally. These criteria include sudden loss of altitude, thrust, systems and communication. The requirement also sets standards for the availability of the flight data recorders after a crash. Exactly how this is to be implemented is left open. The standard is performance-based, in that it prescribes what must be achieved and leaves the 8 FlightCom Magazine

CIVIL AVIATION & LIBERALISATION THE LATEST CHALLENGES FACING AFRICAN AVIATION AFRAA. 22 February 2017

CIVIL AVIATION & LIBERALISATION THE LATEST CHALLENGES FACING AFRICAN AVIATION AFRAA 22 February 2017 It is great to be in Kigali, a safe, peaceful and thriving city Rwanda is realizing the enormous potential