CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

Transcription

1 CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS AND RESULTS

2 4. Analysis and Results Profile of the sample surveys Opinion survey of tourists Survey of attitude of residents Survey of accommodation providers Life Cycle Analysis Kerala Tourism Kovalam beach Thekkady Measurement of factors that influence the life cycle Destination experience Quality of resources Attitude of residents Natural ambience of the site Urbanisation / Disappearing rural characteristics Commercial land use / Private sector investment Transition from tourism Local participation Occupancy of tourist accommodation Historicity Tourism promotion

3 4. Analysis and Results 4.1. Profile of the sample surveys The primary surveys conducted for this research were mainly to construct the destination experience of the tourists and the attitude of residents of the destinations. A third survey was to supplement the information available for the accommodation sector. The salient features of the samples are presented below Opinion survey of tourists The sample size was 530 foreign tourists at Kovalam and 295 at Thekkady. Most of the tourists who were interviewed were from UK, Sweden, Germany, France, Italy, USA and Canada. About one-fifth of the visitors were repeat visitors. 79% of tourists to Kovalam and 89% of tourists to Thekkady were first-timers. The primary reason for the visits to both the destinations was stated as vacation. Mainly friends/relatives, internet searching and tour operators provided the information about the destinations. Goa, Varkala, Kochi, Thailand and Maldives are stated as the competing destinations to Kovalam. Munnar and Kochi are the competing destinations to Thekkady. The main shopping items of tourists were textiles, ornaments and handicrafts. Average duration of tourists at Kovalam was days. At Thekkady, the tourists spent on an average 2.89 days. 133

4 Average daily expenditure of a tourist at Kovalam was Rs At Thekkady this was Rs Survey of attitude of residents The sample size of resident households surveyed at Kovalam was 181 and 139 at Thekkady. There were 625 persons in the sample households at Kovalam and 561 persons in the sample surveyed at Thekkady. The average household size was 3.45 at Kovalam and 4.04 at Thekkady. The sex ratio of Kovalam was 806 females for 1000 males. At Thekkady, there were 1011 females for 1000 males in the sample. The worker participation rate at Kovalam was about 40% and the same at Thekkady was 38%. The primary sector engaged 38% of the working force at Kovalam and 43% at Thekkady. Only very few persons in the sample were engaged in the secondary sector. Over 80% of the sample at Kovalam was confident that tourism would be the most important industry in the State. Only 61% of the sample at Thekkady shared this opinion. Kovalam is primarily a tourist destination, whereas, Thekkady is also a spices trading centre. Non-availability of land due to tourism development is a major issue at Thekkady compared to Kovalam. 134

5 Survey of accommodation providers There were 76 accommodation establishments in the study area at Kovalam and 91 at Thekkady. Majority of the establishments at Thekkady, numbering 50, was home stays. Number of establishments which responded was 50 at Kovalam and 41 at Thekkady (22 hotels and 19 home stays). In 2007, the number of tourist beds available in the contacted establishments was 2087 at Kovalam and 1687 at Thekkady. 20 hotels in Kovalam and 36 hotels and home stays in Thekkady provided the occupancy rates. The occupancy rates of these establishments in the peak tourist season were 87% and 78% during the year 2007 respectively for Kovalam and Thekkady. The employment details were provided by 13 hotels in Kovalam and 27 hotels and home stays in Thekkady. The 13 hotels in Kovalam employed 179 persons and the 27 hotels and home stays in Thekkady employed 506 persons. The general tables generated from the primary surveys are given in Appendix 4.1. Analysis of the primary data, as required for meeting the objectives of the research, is presented at the respective sections of this chapter. The section that follows discusses the findings of the life cycle analysis. This is followed by measurement of factors that influence the life cycle of the selected destinations Life Cycle Analysis As reviewed earlier, the product life cycle concept can describe a product class, a product form or a brand. The product classes have the longest lifecycle whereas the life cycle of a specific brand can change quickly because of reasons like competition 135

6 (Kotler, Bowen, & Makens, 1999). Tourist arrivals to India depend on the world tourism demand and tourist arrivals to Kerala depend on the tourist arrivals to India. Demand for product forms in Kerala like beaches or backwaters depend on the tourist arrivals to Kerala. The demand for each product form influences the tourist arrivals in specific destinations or brands. In other words, the immediate superset influences the life cycle of the brand or product form. Analysis of life cycle hence cannot be taken up independently of the universe it belongs to. In the present research also, the life cycle analysis of the selected brands Kovalam and Thekkady is preceded by the life cycle analysis of Kerala tourism, which can be termed as the product class in which the selected brands belong Kerala Tourism i. Growth of tourism It was during the 7 th five-year plan period that the Government of Kerala took up tourism promotion activities, realising the potential of tourism development in Kerala (Department of Tourism, Government of Kerala, 2002). The Government declared tourism as an industry in 1986 and the industry was greeted with incentives and concessions for making investments and promoting tourism. Today, the State has emerged as one of the most acclaimed tourist destinations in the country. International recognition of Kerala tourism came in various forms. The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) selected Kerala as a Partner State. National Geographic chose Kerala as one of the 50 must see destinations of a life time. Travel and Leisure describes Kerala as one of the 100 great trips for the 21 st Century. Cosmopolitan 136

7 rates Kerala as one of the ten love nests in India. Khaleej Times sees Kerala as one of the six destinations of the millennium. A study by Tata Consultancy Services carried out a situation analysis of Kerala tourism and presented it in the form of a SWOT analysis (TCS, 2000). Though the study was conducted in the year 2000, the strengths identified in the study give an indication of the reasons for the commendable growth that Kerala tourism has achieved. The strengths identified in the study are reproduced below: Excellent nature resources in the forms of backwaters, hill-stations and beaches Kerala is the seat of Ayurveda, a very important constituent of the growing body-mind/ alternative medicine Temperate climate throughout the year A very good reputation both internationally and nationally High compounded annual growth rate of 12% for tourists High level of literacy among residents enabling better interface with tourists It has both tourist destinations and tourism assets that commute to destinations. This offers tourists an opportunity to spend their entire stay on a tourism resource A remarkable feature of the growth of foreign tourists to Kerala is its emergence as an important destination in India, in spite of its location far and outside the traditional Golden Triangle connecting Delhi, Agra and Jaipur. About ten percent of the foreign tourists, coming to India visit Kerala. In the case of domestic tourists, the trend is showing a consistent growth, though not impressive as that of foreign tourist arrivals. But on the other side, the achievement in the growth is to be viewed taking into account the geographic location of Kerala far away from the tourist origins in the country and further discouraged by the pricing of the transport connections. 137

8 Kerala Tourism is subjected to studies by different agencies besides the Tourism Department of Kerala. The number of tourist arrivals in Kerala has already outnumbered the projected figures given for the year Kerala Tourism Vision 2025 projected the foreign tourist arrivals at 4.32 lakhs, World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) estimated the figure as 5.1 lakhs and the World Tourism and Travel Council (WTTC) put the figure at 5.06 lakhs, all for the year The actual tourist arrivals have crossed these estimates in Number of foreign tourist arrivals to the State was in In seven years, this was doubled. It took just another six years to double again and reached the figure of in In 2006, the number of tourist arrivals was and crossed the five lakh mark in The tourist arrivals from 1987 to 2007 are given in Table 4.1. ii. Seasonal Characteristics Seasonal variation in tourist arrivals is a phenomenon experienced by most of the tourist destinations in India. Kerala tourism considers the six months from October to March as the tourist season, and most of the foreign tourist arrivals are in this period. Challenging this seasonality is always seen as an important strategy for economic rewards by the tourism industry. By looking at the nationality of foreign tourists coming to Kerala, the majority is from Europe and the winter season in the countries in the region coincides with the tourism season of Kerala. Monthly tourist arrivals from 1988 to 2006 are used to compute seasonal indices. Pattern of seasonal indices over the years is changing (Table 4.2). The most ideal situation is when the indices remain the same with the value 100 all through a year. 138

9 The seasonal index was always the highest in the month of January as far as Kerala tourism is concerned. Similarly, June was the leanest month for tourist arrivals. Quarterly trend in the values of the seasonal indices are presented in Figure 4.1. A reduction in higher index values in the peak season and an increase in lower index values in lean season in a growing tourism market would indicate a trend that would point to the ideal situation referred earlier. The first and fourth quarters of the year constitute the tourist season and the middle two quarters are lean seasons. In the first quarter, index values of February and March are on the rise. All the other four months in the peak season are witnessing a decreasing trend in the index values. The tourist arrivals in all the three months in the second quarter, July and August in the third quarter contribute to an increasing trend in the index values. The change in the pattern of tourist arrivals over the months in a year is turning out as an outcome that could improve the economic sustainability of tourism industry. This could lead to higher occupancy of tourist accommodation in the second and third quarter, more stable employment opportunities, and better management of tourism destinations. Though in terms of index values there is a change slowly emerging in the pattern, in absolute terms, the growth of tourism is still contributed by the increase in tourist arrivals in the peak season. The increase in tourist arrivals for the periods from 1990 to 1995, 1995 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2005 is in Table 4.3. Considering the fact that the investments made in tourist accommodation that increased the number of beds in the last ten years, the tourist arrivals are at par or below the capacity levels even in the peak season. The spread of tourist arrivals over the months could be perhaps the most important contributing factor for the future growth of tourism in the State. 139

10 Table 4.1: Monthly tourist arrivals in Kerala for the years from 1987 to 2007 Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Source: Tourist Statistics (various years), Department of Tourism, Government of Kerala 140

11 Table 4.2: Seasonal Indices for tourist arrivals in Kerala Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Month January February March April May June July August September October November December

12 Table 4.3: Monthly variation in tourist arrivals 1990 to to to 2005 January 2.22 times 1.20 times 1.78 times February March April May June July August September October November December iii. Tourist projections With the capacity level still high, Kerala is expected to maintain higher growth in tourist arrivals. The time series data from 1988 to 2006 is used to fit a model with the objective of projecting the tourist arrivals for the coming years. Using a 12-month moving average, the actual arrivals are de-seasonalized before attempting for projections. The best fit obtained is a 4th degree polynomial and the estimated model is as follows: Y = x x x e -005 x 4 (Standard error = , Correlation coefficient = ), where, Y is the number of foreign tourist arrivals and x is the time variable. Value of x is the serial number of months in a year with the value 1 for January The scatter plot and the estimated polygon are shown in Figure 4.2. The seasonal indices for the months are applied on the de-seasonalized projection figures obtained from the model and the tourist arrivals for the three years from 2008 are estimated as given in Table

13 Table 4.4: Estimated tourist arrivals to Kerala Month\ Year January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Growth rate Globally, the increase in international tourist arrivals is projected to be around 3 to 4% for the year 2008 and anticipates a long-term growth rate of 4.1% a year through 2020 (UNWTO, 2008). Region-wise forecasts for international tourist arrivals are as given below: 2007 Forecast 2008 World 6.1% 3 to 4% Europe 4.2% 3 to 4% Asia and the Pacific 10.2% 8 to 10% Americas 4.7% 1 to 3% Africa 7.9% 6 to 8% Middle east 13.4% 6 to 10% Source: UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, Volume 6, No.1, January 2008 In 2001, the share of tourist arrivals in India was 0.37% which increased every year and reached 0.55% in Tourist arrivals to India were growing at impressive rates since The arrivals increased by 26.8% from 2003 to 2004, by 13.3 % from 2004 to 2005, by 13.5% from 2005 to 2006 and by 11.9% from 2006 to 2007 (Ministry of Tourism, Government of India, 2008). If the world tourist arrivals maintain the same 143

14 rate of growth of 6%, and if the share of tourist arrivals maintain the share of 0.55% recorded in 2007, and if the share of Kerala tourism is maintained at the same rate as in 2007, the projected foreign tourist arrivals would be as given below: World tourism 952 million 1009 million 1070 million India tourism arrivals 5.6 million 6.2 million 7 million Kerala tourism 0.58 million 0.65 million 0.73 million The above estimates assume maintaining of the present trend and ignore the growth potential. The projected tourist arrivals to Kerala given in Table 4.4 are higher than the estimates given above. Though the international tourist arrivals are slowing down, the decline is minimum in the Asia and Pacific region. The market share of American tourists in Kerala is below 15% and the economic recession, which is highlighted as the reason for the decreased rate of growth, is not likely to make a great impact on Kerala tourism. Like the Olympics held at China in 2008, India is hosting the Commonwealth games in The game is capable of pulling more European tourists to Kerala since tourists from UK form the biggest group nationality-wise. 144

15 Figure 4.1: Pattern of changes in seasonal indices with respect to foreign tourist arrival in Kerala 145

16 S = r = Number of tourists Year 1988 to Year 2006 Figure 4.2: The scatter plot of de-seasonalised tourist arrivals and the polynomial curve showing the foreign tourist arrival pattern in Kerala iv. Identification of life cycle stage The shape of the curve and the projected figures for the years up to 2010 indicate that Kerala tourism is on its growth path. The real take off seems to have taken place in the year end of The beginning of the introduction stage is before 1987 and not included in the above analysis. Characteristics of sales, cost, profit, customers, market and competition show differently in the life cycle stages of a product as presented in the Review of literature. These characteristics are discussed below with respect to Kerala tourism. Sales: There will be low sales in the Introduction stage and this will be rapidly rising in the Growth stage (Kotler, Keller, Koshy, & Jha, 2007). Sales will be peak in the Maturity stage and will decline in the Decline stage. In the case of tourism, sales 146

17 could be represented by the foreign exchange revenue or the number of tourist arrivals. In the present analysis, sale is represented by the number of tourist arrivals. Tourist arrivals are maintaining double digit growth rate for the years since 2002, except for 2005, as can be seen below. Low growth was recorded for the ten years between 1988 and 2001, revealing the characteristics of the introduction stage of the life cycle. Year Growth rate (%) Costs per tourist: The costs to be considered include the operating costs and overhead costs in a typical commercial establishment. In the context here, the relevance is more for the cost incurred by the Government, since Kerala tourism is taken as a product and the management of the product is by the Government. Expenses of tourism by Government fall into two broad heads plan expenditure and non plan expenditure. Non-plan expenditure is for meeting the establishment costs of Department of 147

18 Tourism and can be considered as operation expenses. Plan expenditure includes capital expenditure. For budgeting convenience, investment in infrastructure, which is of capital investment in nature, is included under revenue expense. For analysis purpose, this is separated. Most of these investments are in long term assets like buildings, roads, and other civil construction works. Economic life of these assets is longer. Kerala Tourism Development Corporation (KTDC), the Government owned company, accounts 5 to 10% value of such assets in its annual financial statements. Assuming the same, 10% of the investment in infrastructure and capital is added to the non-plan expenses to reflect the cost of such investments from the subsequent year onwards. The expenses are compiled for the years from to from the Administrative Reports of Department of Tourism, Government of Kerala. These are converted to constant prices using Consumer Price Index with base year 1982 as 100. The number of foreign and domestic tourist arrivals is recalculated for the financial year periods from April to March. Costs per tourist computed thus are presented in Table 4.5. As per the pattern, the operating expenses have come down and more or less stabilized since Per customer cost is usually high in the introductory stage of a product life cycle, but comes down in the growth stage and will be lowest in the later stages. In the case of Kerala tourism also, the operating cost shows a declining trend as can be seen in Figure 4.3: Pattern of changes in expenditure per tourist. Though it is difficult to identify the life cycle stage from the figures and graph, the pattern clearly is moving towards the growth stage of the life cycle. 148

19 Table 4.5: Index values showing changes in pattern of expenses per tourist Operating expense Capital expense (Index value for taken as 100) Operating expense Capital expense Figure 4.3: Pattern of changes in expenditure per tourist Profits: The general characteristics of the life cycle in terms of profit is that it would be negative in the introduction stage, but rises in the growth stage and will have the highest profit level in the maturity stage. In the case of Kerala tourism, the earnings in 149

20 foreign exchange is taken as the variable representing profit. The actual profit includes the earnings from domestic tourists as well as the cost incurred by the private sector. Since intention here is only to get a trend in the accrual of profit, the net foreign exchange earnings in the view point of the government is taken. Foreign exchange earnings less the government expenditures are given in Table 4.6. The figures are brought to a common base using the Consumer Price Index with 1982 as base year. It can be seen that the net earnings were positive from the first year taken into account for the analysis here. The net earnings is increasing as can be seen in the Figure 4.4: Net earnings at constant prices, which is characteristic of the growth stage of a product life cycle. Table 4.6: Foreign exchange earnings for the years from to (Rupees in crores) Total earnings* (Current prices) Net earnings (Current prices) Net earnings (Constant prices) *Source: Tourist Statistics (various years, Department of Tourism, Government of Kerala 150

21 400 (Base year 1982) 350 Rupees in Crores Figure 4.4: Net earnings at constant prices Customers: The customers of the product are the tourists. Innovators visit the destination in the introduction stage and early adopters in the growth stage (Kotler, Keller, Koshy, & Jha, 2007). Lack of information does not permit classification of tourists into innovators and early adopters. However, studies conducted in earlier occasions have categorized the tourists based on the frequency of visits to Kerala. According to a survey conducted on behalf of Department of Tourism in 2006, 58.5% of the foreign tourists were visiting Kerala for the first time and 29.9% visited Kerala twice (Department of Tourism, Government of Kerala, 2007). Thus the first timers are dominating the share which can be taken as an indication of the introduction or growth stages. Higher share of repeat visitors is an indication of the maturity stage of a destination. According to another study, majority of the international visitors to Kerala fall in the age group years (TRKL, 2001). Market: Most of the tourists to Kerala were from Europe in all these years. In the second place was Asia and Pacific. Except from Sri Lanka, tourist arrivals from all 151

22 other countries in this market were increasing. USA is the other prominent market for Kerala tourism. The share of markets is given in Table 4.7. As shown in Figure 4.5, the indices of growth in tourist arrivals from all these markets were on the rise. It cannot be said that the markets have shown signs of consolidation and the trend seen is growth. As per the Butler s (1980) model, characteristics of the market are more comparable with the development stage of life cycle. Table 4.7: Market share of world tourism markets in Kerala tourism Year Europe Asia and Pacific Americas Africa Middle East Total Europe Asia and Pacific Americas Africa Middle East Figure 4.5: Indices of growth in tourist arrivals from world tourism markets 152

23 Competitors: Kerala figures in the top 10 States in India that attracts maximum number of foreign tourists. The share of Kerala and the other nine states are given in Table 4.8. Among the ten states, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, West Bengal, Delhi and Rajasthan have managed to show an increasing trend in the market share from 2001 to Though marginal, Kerala is among the other five states that experienced a declining trend in the market share. The upward and downward trends can be seen in Figure 4.6 and Figure 4.7. Two states in south India Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are the competing States in South India which have made a dent in the market share of Kerala. At the same time, Rajasthan continues to be the State that attracts maximum number of foreign tourists and the State has strengthened its position between 2001 and Goa is Kerala s primary competitor as per a study and 15% of international visitors and 11% of domestic visitors consider Goa as an alternative destination (TRKL, 2001). But in the number of foreign tourist arrivals, Goa ranks below Kerala. 153

24 Table 4.8: Top 10 States in India with maximum foreign tourist arrivals Percentage of foreign tourist arrivals Andhra Pradesh State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals Goa State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals Karnataka State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals Kerala State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals Maharashtra State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals Rajasthan State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals Tamil Nadu State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals Uttar Pradesh State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals West Bengal State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals Delhi State arrivals to gross state arrivals State arrivals to country arrivals

25 Figure 4.6: States that have managed to increase the market share Figure 4.7: States that experience a decrease in the market share In the Butler s (1980) model, the introduction and growth stages are represented by the four stages exploration, involvement, development and consolidation. Number of visitors is limited during the exploration stage, but increases as the life cycle moves to involvement, development and consolidation stages. Formation of Department of Tourism and recognition of tourism as an industry are indicators of the 155

26 involvement of Government and the people in developing tourism in Kerala. Investments happen in the developing stage. From the part of the Government, investment in infrastructure projects is showing an increasing trend. Most of the private sector investment in a tourism destination is for developing tourist accommodation. The number of beds made available to tourists for the years from to are also given in Table 4.9. There will be intensive marketing efforts in the developing stage as per the Butler s model. The marketing expense of the Government calculated on per-foreign-tourist basis is also shown in Table 4.9. As per the three indicators given in Table 4.9, the life cycle of Kerala tourism falls in the development / consolidation stage. As identified by Cooper and Jackson (1989), there is no single measure that could be used to identify the current stage of life cycle of a product. However, the characteristics examined above, help to identify the current stage of life cycle of Kerala tourism as the Growth stage. In terms of the stages identified by Butler (1980), Kerala Tourism is in the development stage as can also be seen in Table 4.10, using the indicators identified by Getz (1990) in the case of Niagara Falls: 156

27 Table 4.9: Investment in infrastructure Year Infrastructure investment by Government (Rupees per foreign tourist at Constant prices) Number of tourist beds Marketing expense by Government (Rupees per foreign tourist at Constant prices) Table 4.10: Matching of indicators in the development stage Sl No. Indicator Reflection on Kerala tourism currently 1 Rapid growth in visits Growth of tourist arrivals is high Growth 2 Visitors outnumber Getz (1990) included this as an Growth residents indicator for a destination. In the case of Kerala tourism, even at the most popular destinations in the state, visitors do not outnumber residents. 3 Well-defined market area As it stands today, a well defined Growth market has emerged with Europe in the lead. But the market share of Europe is being replaced by other markets 4 Heavy advertising Marketing by Government forms 10 to 15% of the budgeted expenditure. Growth 5 External investment leads to loss of local control Because of the laws and regulations, investors are controlled by Government. Growth stage that matches the situation No conclusion 157

28 Kovalam beach i. Growth of tourism Till the seventies, Kovalam was just a fishing village and a hippy idyll (Lonely Planet, 2000). The beautiful beach line at Kovalam in the shape of four crescents got the attention of visitors in the 1930s. The Vizhinjam Light House and the Kovalam Palace were the only monumental buildings in Kovalam (Committee on Scientific Study of Kovalam, 2002). It was in 1966 that Government of India took the initiative to develop Kovalam as a major beach resort in South India. Private entrepreneurs also have started showing interest in developing Kovalam along with ITDC. And today, Kovalam is one of the most sought after destinations for tourists who visit Kerala. Till the end of the eighties, nearly two-thirds of the foreign tourists who visited Kerala were attracted to Kovalam. There were ups and downs in the tourism demand at Kovalam since then. By the turn of this century, the share of Kovalam declined to about one-sixth and it showed some improvement in 2006 and 2007, and as per the latest figures available, the share of Kovalam stands above 20%. The monthly tourist arrivals for the years from 1988 to 2007 are given in Table In 2007, the number of tourist arrivals at Kovalam crossed the one lakh mark. ii. Seasonal characteristics January was the month with the maximum tourist arrivals for most of the years and the lean months were June and July. The seasonal indices however showed fluctuations over the years and cannot be treated as following constant indices. The seasonal indices for Kovalam for the months from 1988 to 2006 are given in Table

29 Quarterly trend in the values of seasonal indices are presented in Figure 4.8.December in the fourth quarter and all the six months in the first and second quarters show an upward trend in the values of seasonal indices. The peak months in Kovalam are the five months from November to March. The trend is that the peakness of November is flattening. The changes in the seasonal indices mentioned above are results of analysis of a longer period and by considering the tourist arrivals in all the individual years. This analysis may not reflect the short term variations that get noticed. Monthly variation in tourist arrivals at Kovalam is given in Table Since 1995, monthly tourist arrivals have been increasing for the five months from November to February. But between 2000 and 2005, tourist arrivals in March have increased more than two times. In contrast with the performance of tourism for the State as a whole, Kovalam has ups and downs in monthly tourist arrivals from time to time. 159

30 Table 4.11: Monthly tourist arrivals at Kovalam Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Monthly distribution for 2006 and 2007 are estimates 160

31 Table 4.12: Seasonal indices for tourist arrivals in Kovalam Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Month January February March April May June July August September October November December

32 Figure 4.8: Pattern of changes in seasonal indices with respect to foreign tourist arrivals in Kovalam 162

33 Table 4.13: Monthly variation in tourist arrivals at Kovalam Variation in number of times Variation in absolute numbers 1990 to to to to to to 2005 January February March April May June July August September October November December iii. Tourist projections for Kovalam The increase in tourist arrivals in 2007 has greatly influenced in finding the best fit for a curve to represent the trend at Kovalam. If this latest figure is excluded, the best fit is a Sinusoidal curve with ups and downs. As can be seen in Figure 4.9, the scatter plot of monthly tourist arrivals break the up and down characteristics by around 2005 and instead of coming down as in the case of a Sinusoidal fit, the actual arrivals have gone up. It could be gathered from the field that new investments are taking place for developing properties by the private sector. The speculations and the activities favour the present change in the trend of tourist arrivals to continue. The best fit obtained for Kovalam is also a 4 th degree polynomial and the estimated model is as follows: Y = x x x e -005 x 4 (Standard error = , Correlation coefficient = ), where Y is the number of foreign tourist arrivals at Kovalam and x is the time variable. Value of x is the serial number of months in a year with the value 1 for January The seasonal 163

34 indices for the months in 2006 are applied on the de-seasonalized projection figures obtained from the model and the tourist arrivals for the three years from 2008 are estimated as given in Table Any decrease in tourist arrivals in 2008 will make the model unfit. Because of the volatile behaviour of tourist arrivals experienced hitherto, it is necessary to update the model using the latest arrival figures. According to the figures arrived at here, Kovalam is poised for a moderate growth of tourist arrivals in 2008 and a growth above 30% in 2009 and Table 4.14: Estimated tourist arrivals to Kovalam Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Growth rate

35 8581 S = r = Tourist arrivals Months starting from Jan 1988 Figure 4.9: Scatter plot of de-seasonalised tourist arrivals and the polynomial curve showing the foreign tourist arrival pattern at Kovalam iv. Identification of life cycle As it can be seen from the scatter plots made for Kovalam, the life cycle goes through periods of decline before being rejuvenated and achieve new growth. A similar pattern is identified by Groucutt, Leadley and Forsyth (2004). Reasons for the rejuvenation according to the authors could be due to an improved product formulation or modification or new packaging. The growth which started in 2001 after a decline is continuing in the case of Kovalam. In order to arrive at a conclusion on the stage of the life cycle of Kovalam, various characterisitcs that appear in the life cycle are explored below, as it was done for Kerala tourism. Sales: The tourist arrivals was at its peak in The growth in tourist arrivals from 2004 to 2005, 2005 to 2006 and 2007 were remarkable with growth rates at 22.13%, 40.4% and 52.74%. But for these growths in the recent years, tourist arrival figures at 165

36 Kovalam was fluctuating from about tourists to tourists a year. The first sign of breaking this upper limit was seen in 2005 and in 2007 it hit an all time high and crossed the one lakh mark. This can be interpreted as the rejuvenation stage as described by Butler (1980). The forecasts also indicate maintaining of higher growth rates, but less than that recorded in 2006 and Year Growth rate (%) Customers and market: In true reflection of the pattern for India as well as for Kerala, Kovalam also attracts maximum number of tourists from Europe, dominated by UK nationals (Table 4.15).The Asia and Pacific, and America markets were showing signs of consolidation with 15 to 20% of the total market share till Tourists from Asia and Pacific markets were more or less steady with about arrivals a year. The arrivals from this market stood at in Tourists from American region was steady at around mark a year till In 2007, the arrivals from America crossed Kovalam crossed the one lakh mark greatly because of the increased 166

37 tourist inflow from Europe, especially UK and France. The increased arrivals from Europe was about tourists in 2007 alone. Table 4.15: Market share of world tourism markets at Kovalam (%) Year Europe Asia and Pacific America Africa Middle East Total Competitors: The six destinations Kochi, Kovalam, Thekkady, Munnar, Alappuzha and Kumarakam account for about two-third of the foreign tourist arrivals in the State. In terms of number of tourists, these can be termed as the competing destinations within the State. Among these, Kochi, Kovalam and Alappuzha have coastal line. But both Kochi and Alappuzha are known for their backwaters. As such, for the class of a destination like Kovalam, there exists no competition from the other five in the top six destinations. The primary survey conducted at Kovalam reveals the name of Varkala as a competing upcoming destination for Kovalam. There are other destinations being developed within the State in the north. Thus, though Kovalam is to compete with destinations of other types, few of the new destinations offer attractions similar to that of Kovalam. The foreign tourist arrivals at the competing destinations inside Kerala are given in Table

38 Table 4.16: Number of foreign tourists in the competing tourist destinations in Kerala Sl Tourist site No 1 Kochi city Kovalam 44, Thekkady Munnar Alappuzha Kumarakom Total All Kerala Share in State total (%) Source: Tourist Statistics (various years), Department of Tourism, Government of Kerala Thekkady i. Growth of tourism Thekkady is popular as a hill resort among tourists and is the location of the Periyar National Park. A s a natural wildlife sanctuary, Thekkady has a history dating back to the year It is home to herds of elephants, sambar, tigers, gaur, lion-tailed Macaques and Nilgiri Langurs. The Periyar wild life sanctuary is spread across 777 sq. km area, of which 360 sq.km is thick evergreen forest (Department of Tourism, 2006). This sanctuary was declared as a Tiger Reserve in The park is also often called by the name Thekkady. Thekkady is famous for natural spices like black pepper, cardamom, cinnamon and clove. The splendid artificial lake formed by the Mullaperiyar Dam across the Periyar River the Periyar reservoir - adds to the charm of the park, and the area of this lake is 26 sq.km (District Tourism Promotion Council Idukki, 2007). Thekkady is located around Periyar reservoir. The dam gets the name because of its location in the confluence of Mullayar and Periyar rivers. 168

39 Besides the natural attractions, history also has played its part in the evolution of Thekkady as a tourist destination. The Mullaperiyar dam was conceived by the British during the colonial rule to divert the waters of the west-flowing Periyar river eastwards. The dam was built by the British Army Engineering Corps. The first dam was washed away by floods, and a second masonry dam was constructed in The historical events that followed after the construction of the dam in 1895 are as follows: The Periyar Lake Reserve formed SCH Robinson made the first game warden Nellikkampetty Game Sanctuary formed Periyar was declared a wild life sanctuary Periyar was declared a Tiger Reserve The core area of the park notified as a National Park Thekkady brought under "Project Elephant" India eco-development project launched Reorganisation of the area - Periyar East and Periyar West Though efforts are made to protect the wild life and shield them from human interference, there are instances of struggles against illegal encroachments by the tiger and elephant poachers, and cultivators of cannabis. Tourist entry to the Periyar National Park is restricted to the northern corner adjacent to the Periyar Lake. The core zone of the park is not accessible to tourists. Out of a total area of 430 sq. km termed as the buffer zone, only 55 sq.km area is kept apart for tourism. The famous Sabarimala temple is located in the buffer zone. This temple is visited by more than 4 million pilgrims in a year. 169