US Housing Overview October 7, 2010 Toby Morrison Regional Sales Director 480-415-2578 MARKET INTELLIGENCE www.hanleywood.com www.builderinfostore.com
Agenda National Overview Remodel & New Construction Forecast Some Good News!
NATIONAL OVERVIEW
U.S. GDP Growth Still Down Sharply U.S. GDP Growth Still Down Sharply 9% 2Q10 GDP Growth 1.70% Q1:90 Q1:91 Q1:92 Q1:93 Q1:94 Q1:95 Q1:96 Q1:97 Q1:98 Q1:99 Q1:00 Q1:01 Q1:02 Q1:03 Q1:04 Q1:05 Q1:06 Q1:07 Q1:08 Q1:09 Q1:10 6% 3% 0% -3% -6% -9% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Fannie Mae forecast
Consumer Confidence Currently United States 54.3 Mountain 58.3 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1Q00 2Q00 3Q00 4Q00 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 Cons. Conf. (U.S.) CCI - Mountain Source: The Conference Board
Job Growth Greatly Weakens Job Growth Greatly Weakens 4% 2% 2Q10 = -0.14% Y-O-Y non-farm employment not seasonally adjusted 90Q1 90Q4 91Q3 92Q2 93Q1 93Q4 94Q3 95Q2 96Q1 96Q4 97Q3 98Q2 99Q1 99Q4 00Q3 01Q2 0% 02Q1 02Q4 03Q3 04Q2 05Q1 05Q4 06Q3 07Q2 08Q1 08Q4 09Q3 10Q2-2% -4% -6% -1.6% -1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
Aug-10 30-Year Mortgage Rates Are OK By Historical Standards 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% May-06 Aug-06 Nov-06 Feb-07 May-07 Aug-07 Nov-07 Feb-08 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey 4.32
New Home Prices Have Returned to 2003 Levels 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Percent of households that can afford to buy a median priced new home Source: Bureau of the Census, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence 1Q03 2Q03 3Q03 4Q03 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 58.1 2Q10
State of the Housing Market Today
What s Ahead for Remodeling and New Construction Hanley Wood Market Intelligence August 2010
Looking Into the Future Remodeling is on the rebound already Positive tailwinds Solid foundation for long-term growth Markets vary Energy fueled New construction still shaky in short-term No positive tailwinds other than low interest rates and historic affordability Local markets are returning to fundamentals Some markets are improving but far from a rebound Much depends on the U.S. economy Short term is harder to read Long term more positive 11
2010 and Beyond for Remodeling Remodeling activity is already improving Bottom reached in 2009 measured in $ spent (Harvard JCHS) Bottom reached in activity measured by RRI (HWMI) Still significant variation in market activity Demand is very different market to market Market health an additional factor in many markets Solid growth expected in spending and activity Some categories will do better than others in near term Energy related categories are prime drivers 12
R&R Took Some Hits, But in Comparison, Not So Bad Billions of $ s Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University, U.S. Census Bureau, Hanley Wood 13
Replacement & Remodeling Now Dominate Residential Spending 70% 17% 24% 22% 29% 32% 40% 48% 53% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2008 2009 Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies tabulations of Commerce Departments numbers, based on $353.4B for new residential and $294.9B for remodeling *NAHB and Harvard Joint Center Projections For Housing Starts, Average Sales Prices and Remodeling Activity 14
Remodeling Activity Is Already Improving Source: Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, July 2010 Report 15
On Year Outlook for the RRI in Each Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) 16
Comparing Markets Based on Demand and the RRI Forecast 17
The Best Markets for Remodeling and Demand Through 2Q 2011 Top 20 Markets 2Q 2010 Rank Composite Ranking Index Market RRI Forecast 2Q2011 Demand Index 1 Pittsburgh, PA 135.9 89.5 112.7 2 Washington Arlington Alexandria, DC VA MD WV 122.7 99.1 110.9 3 Anchorage, AK 130.7 78.1 104.4 4 Houston Sugar Land Baytown, TX 109.5 97.5 103.5 5 Syracuse, NY 127.1 77.6 102.4 6 Buffalo Niagara Falls, NY 119.6 84.8 102.2 6 Hartford West Hartford East Hartford, CT 114.3 90.0 102.2 8 Philadelphia Camden Wilmington, PA NJ DE MD 103.7 98.8 101.3 9 Boston Cambridge Quincy, MA NH 103.7 98.0 100.9 10 Seattle Tacoma Bellevue, WA 104.0 96.4 100.2 11 Riverside San Bernardino Ontario, CA 104.4 95.8 100.1 12 San Francisco Oakland Fremont, CA 101.4 98.6 100.0 13 Los Angeles Long Beach Santa Ana, CA 99.5 99.7 99.6 14 Dallas Fort Worth Arlington, TX 100.6 98.3 99.5 15 Austin Round Rock San Marcos, TX 107.2 91.1 99.1 16 San Antonio New Braunfels, TX 107.1 90.8 99.0 17 Virginia Beach Norfolk Newport News, VA NC 106.4 91.4 98.9 18 St. Louis, MO IL 102.4 94.4 98.4 18 San Diego Carlsbad San Marcos, CA 101.2 95.5 98.4 20 New York Northern New Jersey Long Island, NY NJ PA 96.5 100.0 98.2 20 Omaha Council Bluffs, NE IA 110.9 85.6 98.2 18
Similar to RRI, $ Growth Expectations Are Strong Billions of $ s 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1980 1990 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies Harvard University, U.S. Census Bureau, Hanley Wood 19
2010 and Beyond for New Construction 2010 has been a roller coaster Expectations were falsely high at beginning of the year Relatively strong first quarter With expiration of tax credits, sales plummeted Starts projections seem a bit optimistic since there is no appetite for speculation and new home sales forecasts are less rosy NAHB is forecasting 378,000 new home sales for 2010 In January, NAHB forecasted 517,000 new home sales for 2010 On the positive side, the new home premium is returning a sign that the new home market itself is in better shape Risk remains declining home ownership and foreclosures The longer-term future looks strong but how long to recover? Structure of industry will be different going forward 20
Improvement Expected in 2011 Thousands Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NAHB Forecasts 21
5 Years to Recover Normal Peak of New Home Sales? Thousands Source:U.S. Census Bureau, Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Preliminary Forecasts 22
Markets Are Far From Healthy This Year for New Construction 23
New Construction Cannot Stabilize Until Distressed Sales Abate 24
One Encouraging Sign of Health in the Market for New Homes 25
Take Away s The future looks better than where we have been Remodeling & Replacement stronger now and will stay ahead of new construction for some time in total spending R&R spending by category different than recent past Energy related projects are hot New construction will take longer to rebound New construction activity will begin increasing but new peak may be lower than 2005 peak Fundamentals matter again for housing, so some markets will rebound much faster New construction will be less fragmented, so pay attention to market share and who s growing 26
Ready for some good news????
The Ultimate Top 10 Best Markets
The Ultimate Top 10 Best Markets What defines the best markets? Market Health Jobs Structure of the Market Demand Activity All of the Above
Market Health: Top Markets for Current Economics The nominees are: Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Honolulu, HI Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA Raleigh-Cary, NC Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Wichita, KS
The Best Market for Current Economics: Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Analytics, Hanley Wood
Demand: Top Markets for Quality Jobs Creation The nominees are: Albuquerque, NM Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC Baton Rouge, LA Birmingham-Hoover, AL Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN Raleigh-Cary, NC Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
The Best Market for Quality Job Creation: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody s Analytics, Hanley Wood
Market Health: Top Markets for 2011 Housing Conditions The nominees are: Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Durham-Chapel Hill, NC Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Raleigh-Cary, NC Salt Lake City, UT San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
Best Market for 2011 Housing Conditions: Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX
Market Health: Top Markets for Builders Outselling Banks The nominees are: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC Austin-Round Rock, TX Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Columbia, SC El Paso, TX Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR Oklahoma City, OK Raleigh-Cary, NC San Antonio, TX
The Best Market for Builders Outselling Banks: Raleigh-Cary, NC Hanley Wood Market Intelligence, Housing Intelligence Pro as of 9/15/2010
Demand: Top Markets for New Housing Demand The nominees are: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL-IN-WI Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
The Best Market for New Housing Demand: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Hanley Wood Market Intelligence Hanley Wood Market Intelligence
Market Structure: Top Markets for Builder Concentration The nominees are: Albuquerque, NM Baltimore-Towson, MD Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice, FL Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Stockton, CA Tucson, AZ
The Best Market for Builder Concentration: Tucson, AZ Tucson 2010 Change in Public Builder % 2005-2010 Riverside, CA Tucson Public Builder % of New Home Market
Activity: Top Markets for Growth in Housing Starts The nominees are: Baltimore-Towson, MD Denver-Aurora, CO El Paso, TX Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA Raleigh-Cary, NC Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
The Best Market for Growth in Starts: Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Census Bureau, Moody s Analytics, Hanley Wood
Activity: Top Markets for Remodeling The nominees are: Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Pittsburgh, PA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Syracuse, NY Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
The Best Market for Remodeling: Pittsburgh, PA
Activity: Top Markets for 2010 Land Investments The nominees are: Albuquerque, NM Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Charleston-North Charleston-Summerville, SC Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
The Best Market for 2010 Land Investments Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Most Active Land Purchasers: Pulte-Centex Highland Homes Newmark Homes Trendmaker Homes JKO LTD The Signorelli Company Lennar Homes Choice Condominiums MHI-McGuyer Homebuilders DR Horton Houston 2010 Top 10 Builders
The Ultimate Top 10 +1: The Overall Top Markets The nominees are: Albuquerque, NM Austin-Round Rock, TX Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Durham, NC Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Orlando-Kissimmee, FL Raleigh-Cary, NC San Antonio, TX Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
The Best Market Overall: Austin-Round Rock, TX
QUESTIONS
US Housing Overview October 7, 2010 Toby Morrison Regional Sales Director 480-415-2578 MARKET INTELLIGENCE www.hanleywood.com www.builderinfostore.com