Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Transition in the US Air Transportation

MIT ICAT Capacity Constraints and the Dynamics of Transition in the US Air Transportation Prof. R. John Hansman Alexandra Mozdzanowska, Philippe Bonnefoy MIT Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics rjhans@mit.edu

MIT ICAT Simple Model of NAS Capability Transition Dynamics Demand System Capability System Behavior Catalytic Event Implementation Process Awareness Building Process Stakeholder Awareness Public Awareness Selected Actions Change Process Historically Transition Driven by Catalytic Accidents What is Capacity Analogue? Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska

Passenger Traffic by Region 1400 Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers by Region 1200 RPK (billion) 1000 800 600 400 200 North America Europe Asia and Pacific Latin America & Caribbean Middle East Africa 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Data source: ICAO, scheduled services of commercial air carriers (through 2005)

Trends in Aircraft Size Data source: Form 41 Traffic data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics (US carriers)

MIT ICAT U.S. Public Use Airports WWII NEPA Dereg Source: CAA statistical handbook of aviation, FAA statistical handbook of aviation, BTS

U.S. Public Use & Certificated Airports Public use airports decreasing at ~ 22 a year Certificated airports decreasing at ~5 a year

US Flight Delays from 1995 to 2007 Data source: FAA Operational Network (OPSNET)

MIT ICAT Flight Cancellations from 2000 to 2007 (by month) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: DOT, Air Travel Consumer Report, http://airconsumer.ost.dot.gov/ & BTS On Time Performance data (top 11 airlines from 2000 to 2002, top 20 airlines from 2003 to 2007)

Growth Limits Constraints vs Damping Upside: Capacity, Market Downside: Financial

Capacity Limit Factors Airport Capacity Runways Gates Landside Limits (including Security) Weather Airspace Capacity Airspace Design Controller Workload Balkanization Demand Peak Demand Hub & Spoke Networks Environmental Limits Noise (relates to Airport) Emissions (local, Ozone, NOX, CO2)

Airport System Capacity Limit Factors Arrival/Departure Routes Runways Weather Capacity Variability Gates Downstream Constraints Controller Workload Landside Limits Terminals Road Access Environmental Safety Community Noise Emissions Adaptive System - Impedance Matching

Key Terminal System Flows (adaptive system - impedance matching) Add l l Pax Screen Gate Boarding Security Check Passengers Check-In Drop-off off Parking Gates Ckd Bag Screen Bags/Cargo Ground Transport Security Point Bag Claim Pick-up Parking Airside Landside

MIT ICAT Airport System Capacity Limit Factors Arrival/Departure Routes Runways Weather Capacity Variability Gates Downstream Constraints Controller Workload Landside Limits Terminals Road Access Environmental Community Noise Emissions Safety

Wake Turbulence Requirement Radar Separation Requirements Separation Requirements for Arrival (Same Runway) Leading Aircraft Trailing Aircraft Heavy Large Small Heavy 4 5 5 B757 4 4 5 Large 3(2.5) 3(2.5) 4 Small 3(2.5) 3(2.5) 3(2.5) Visual Separation Requirements Pilots Discretion Preceding arrival must be clear of runway at touchdown Runway Occupancy Time Limit

A-380 Breakeven Separation for Airport Throughput?

Arrival/Departure Routes Runways Weather Capacity Variability Gates Downstream Constraints Controller Workload Landside Limits Terminals Road Access Environmental Community Noise Emissions Safety Airport System Capacity Limit Factors

Airport Capacity Envelopes Atlanta (ATL) VFR 100,100 ASPM - April 2000 - Visual Approaches Calculated VMC Capacity Optimum Rate (ATL) Each dot represents one hour of actual traffic during April 2000 120 100 IFR 84,90 ASPM - April 2000 - Instrument Approaches Calculated IMC Capacity Reduced Rate (ATL) Arrivals per Hour 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Departures per Hour Source: FAA Benchmark Data

Airport Capacity Envelopes Boston (BOS) Arrivals per Hou 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 VFR 68,50 ASPM - Apr 2000 - Visual Approaches ASPM - Jul/Aug 2000 - Visual Approaches Calculated VMC Capacity Optimum Rate (BOS) 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Departures per Hour 100 90 80 70 IFR ASPM - Apr 2000 - Instrument Approaches ASPM - Jul/Aug 2000 - Instrument Approaches Calculated IMC Capacity Reduced Rate (BOS) Arrivals per Hou 60 50 40 30 44,44 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Departures per Hour Source: FAA Benchmark Data

Variable Capacity Effects 60 Data from FAA Capacity Office, CY95 SFO 50 40 30 LGA EWR STL LAX DFW ORD 20 BOS ATL JFK 10 IAH 0 0 SJU 200000 PIT MEM HNL 400000 CLT PHX DEN LAS 600000 800000 1000000 Total Operations (CY95) 1995 Delays vs Operations From John Andrews, MIT Lincoln Lab

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Source: ASDI data Network Effects and Delay Propagation

Delays at Chicago O Hare 16000 ORD: Total Delays Total Delays 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Source: FAA OPSNET data

Flight Delays Reemerging 60000 OPSNET National Delays 50000 Total Delays 40000 30000 20000 10000 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month Source: FAA OPSNET data

Solutions to Address Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy Do Nothing : Delay Homeostasis System view Demand Regulation Based Mechanism Range restrictions Operation Type restrictions Other? Slot control Passenger Traffic Demand Management Market Based Mechanism Secondary market trading Congestion pricing Auction Aircraft movements Demand/Supply Inadequacy Changes in Infrastructure Utilization Debanking Efficiency Improvement Other? Airport Capacity Capacity Enhancement Demand Diversion: Secondary Airport Emergence Airport Capacity Expansion Source: Philippe Bonnefoy 24

Concrete Solution (BOS)

Current Airport Expansion Projects SEA: 39 years + 46% improvement BOS: 37 years ORD: 2 years PHL: 3 years LAX: ~10 years STL: 8 years 48% improvement IAD: ~10 years ATL: ~15 years 33% improvement Top 30 Congested Airports in 2005 Expansion Projects

Multi-Stakeholder Transition Model with Implementation Barriers Demand System Capability Delays Catalytic Event Implementation Process Safety and Environmental Approval Processes Awareness Building Process Capability Options Solution Refinement Loop Stakeholder Awareness Public Awareness Change Process Collective Decisions Stakeholder Decisions Decision Making Negotiation Loop Stakeholder Preferences Objective Formation Stakeholder Values, Context Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska

Environmental Limitations Noise Emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Airport Construction in Key Areas has Slowed 1970: NEPA passed requiring EIS Airport Opening Date (top 30 airports in 2005)

Capacity Improvement at OEP Airports (2000 vs 2006 Delay Rankings) Year: 2000 Year: 2006 Airport Airport Percentage of OEP new runway project Percentage of code name operations (date completion/ Airport Code Airport name operations delayed capacity benefit) delayed LGA LaGuardia 15.6% EWR Newark 8.1% ORD Chicago 6.3% SFO San Francisco 5.7% BOS Boston 4.8% 2006 / +2% PHL Philadelphia 4.5% JFK Kennedy 3.9% ATL Atlanta 3.1% 2006 / +33% IAH Houston 2.8% DFW Dallas/Ft.Worth 2.4% PHX Phoenix 2.2% LAX Los Angeles 2.2% IAD Dulles 2.0% STL St. Louis 1.8% 2006 / +48 % DTW Detroit 1.8% CVG Cincinnati 1.5% 2005 / +12 % MSP Minn./St. Paul 1.3% 2005 / +19 % MIA Miami 1.1% SEA Seattle 1.0% 2008 / +46 % LAS Las Vegas 0.8% DCA Reagan National 0.8% BWI Balt.-Wash. Intl 0.7% MCO Orlando 0.6% CLT Charlotte 0.6% 2008 / +11% PIT Pittsburgh 0.4% SAN San Diego 0.3% DEN Denver 0.2% SLC Salt Lake City 0.2% TPA Tampa 0.2% MEM Memphis 0.0% Data source: [Delay data: FAA Operational Network, OPSNET], [Capacity improvement: FAA Operational Evolution Plan OEP]. OEP new runway project (date completion / capacity benefit) EWR Newark 12.0% LGA LaGuardia 9.1% ORD Chicago 6.9% TBD JFK Kennedy 6.0% PHL Philadelphia 5.6% 2007 / Delay Reduction ATL Atlanta 5.1% 2006 / 33% BOS Boston 2.9% 2006 / Delay Reduction SFO San Francisco 2.9% IAH Houston 2.5% LAS Las Vegas 2.4% CLT Charlotte 1.3% PHX Phoenix 1.1% DFW Dallas/Ft.Wort 0.9% DTW Detroit 0.9% MDW Midway 0.9% IAD Dulles 0.6% 2008 / 12% DCA Reagan Nation 0.6% SLC Salt Lake City 0.4% LAX Los Angeles 0.4% 2007 / NA SEA Seattle 0.4% 2008 / 46% MIA Miami 0.4% MEM Memphis 0.4% MSP Minn./St. Paul 0.3% CVG Cincinnati 0.3% DEN Denver 0.3% BWI Balt.-Wash. Int 0.2% MCO Orlando 0.2% PIT Pittsburgh 0.1% STL St. Louis 0.0% 2006 / 48% 30

Runway, Runway Extensions, Reconfigurations or New Airports with Environmental Impact Statements or Planning Studies Underway Data source: [Capacity improvement: FAA Operational Evolution Plan OEP]. 31

MIT ICAT Solutions to Address Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy Do Nothing : Delay Homeostasis System view Demand Regulation Based Mechanism Range restrictions Operation Type restrictions Other? Slot control Passenger Traffic Demand Management Market Based Mechanism Secondary market trading Congestion pricing Auction Aircraft movements Demand/Supply Inadequacy Changes in Infrastructure Utilization Debanking Efficiency Improvement Other? Demand Diversion: Secondary Airport Emergence Airport Capacity Capacity Enhancement Airport Capacity Expansion Source: Philippe Bonnefoy 32

MIT ICAT Emergence of Secondary Airports Southwest Effect MSP ORD DTW MHT BOS SFO OAK/ SJC STL MDW CVG PHL BWI IAD DCA PVD ISP LGA / JFK / EWR LAX BUR ONT SNA LGB PHX DFW DAL ATL IAH HOU Original Core airport FLL MIA Emerged Core airport Secondary airport

New York Regional Airport System

180 New York Regional Airport System - Temporal Demand Regional airport system: Five airports combined 160 Arrival Rate (per hour) 140 120 100 80 60 40 00:00-06:00 6:00-10:00 10:00-14:00 14:00-18:00 18:00-22:00 22:00-00:00 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Departure Rate (per hour) Flow of departure and arrivals: - morning (dep.>arr., dep. to west coast) - rebalances throughout the day with arrivals from west coast move back closer to ½ - ½ with departures to Europe in the evening Terminal areas at capacity (closer to capacity) in the 16:00 20:00 time window Philippe Bonnefoy: Analysis of Pareto Frontiers of Multi-Airport Systems

MIT ICAT New York SDO Operations Wake Implications of Tight RNP Routes?

MIT ICAT Airport System Capacity Limit Factors Arrival/Departure Routes Runways Weather Capacity Variability Gates Downstream Constraints Controller Workload Landside Limits Terminals Road Access Environmental Community Noise Emissions Safety

Solutions to Address Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy Do Nothing : Delay Homeostasis System view Demand Regulation Based Mechanism Range restrictions Operation Type restrictions Other? Slot control Passenger Traffic Demand Management Market Based Mechanism Secondary market trading Congestion pricing Auction Aircraft movements Demand/Supply Inadequacy Changes in Infrastructure Utilization Debanking Efficiency Improvement Other? Airport Capacity Capacity Enhancement Demand Diversion: Secondary Airport Emergence Airport Capacity Expansion Source: Philippe Bonnefoy 38

Delay Homeostasis Flight Schedules Demand Regional Economy Delays Catalytic Event System Capability Implementation Process Safety and Environmental Approval Processes Awareness Building Process Capability Options Solution Refinement Loop Stakeholder Awareness Public Awareness Change Process Stakeholder Scheduling Decisions Collective Decisions Decision Making Negotiation Loop Stakeholder Preferences Objective Formation Stakeholder Values, Context

Crisis Driven Transition Capacity Crisis Stimulus? Demand System Capability System Catalytic Event Implementation Process Awareness Building Process Stakeholder Awareness Public Awareness Selected Actions Change Process Historically Transition Driven by Catalytic Accidents What is Capacity Analogue? Source: Alexandra Mozdzanaowska

LGA Air 21 Impact LaGuardia Airport 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Time of Day Maxim um Hourly Operations Based on Current Airspace & ATC Design Historic Movements AIR-21 Induced Svc. Source: William DeCota, Port Authority of New York

Classic Delay vs Demand Curve DELAY Non-Linear Region Linear Region Capacity Limit DEMAND

LGA DELAY Capacity Limit DEMAND Internalized vs externalized costs Source: William DeCota, Port Authority of New York

Flight Delays at LGA from 2000 to 2006 Source: FAA OPSNET data

MIT ICAT Demand Management Only Rapid Public Action Regional Economy Demand Delays Catalytic Event Demand Management System Capability Implementation Process Safety and Environmental Approval Processes Awareness Building Process Capability Options Solution Stakeholder Awareness Public Awareness Change Process Collective Decision Making Negotiation Loop Stakeholder Preferences Objective Formation Stakeholder Values, Context

Solutions to Address Airport Demand/Capacity Inadequacy Do Nothing : Delay Homeostasis System view Demand Regulation Based Mechanism Range restrictions Operation Type restrictions Other? Slot control Passenger Traffic Demand Management Market Based Mechanism Secondary market trading Congestion pricing Auction Aircraft movements Demand/Supply Inadequacy Changes in Infrastructure Utilization Debanking Efficiency Improvement Other? Airport Capacity Capacity Enhancement Demand Diversion: Secondary Airport Emergence Airport Capacity Expansion Source: Philippe Bonnefoy 46

MIT ICAT Conclusions Capacity will not expand to meet demand at key airports Capacity Crisis Delay Adaptation will occur when delay market works Secondary Airports Scheduling There will be a capacity crisis Unclear what the public catalytic stimulus will be Number of demand managed airports will increase Need good understanding of alternatives Regional economic impact is not clear

Relationship Between Economy and Air Transportation Direct / Indirect / Induced employment effects Economy Economic Enabling Effect (Access to people / markets / ideas / capital) Travel/Freight Need Demand Supply Pricing & Schedule NAS Capability Financial Equity/ Debt Markets Revenue/Profitability Air Transportation System Airlines Vehicle Capability

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