Ogden-Hinckley New Entrant Incentive Program Request for Letters of Interest Amendment No. 1 The City of Ogden, Utah (the City ) is seeking Letters of Interest from air carriers not currently serving the Ogden-Hinckley Airport (OGD) to provide new air service between OGD and a large or medium hub airport serving the Denver, Dallas/Fort Worth or Seattle metropolitan areas with the support of an Incentive Program. A Request for Letters of Interest ( Request ) was first published by the City on November 2, 2017. Amendment No. 1 revises the Procedure section of the Request, with changes to the procedure and deadlines for responses from interested air carriers ( Respondents ). There is no change to the Purpose, Eligibility, or Incentive Program sections of the original Request. Changes to the Procedure section are outlined below: 1. The deadline for Respondents to submit informal Letters of Interest is extended to December 1, 2017. 2. The requirement for Respondents to submit formal proposals upon the City s request is removed. 3. The requirement for Respondents to prepare a Feasibility Study showing market support for the proposed destination(s) is removed. Instead, the City is making available to Respondents the attached Market Assessment Analysis for Ogden-Hinckley Airport, prepared by Tri-Star Marketing Company in March 2015. This analysis includes a catchment area analysis and passenger forecast for the Ogden-Hinckley Airport. 4. The informal Letter of Interest should indicate the name of the Respondent and the destination under consideration. If the Respondent has additional data showing market support for the proposed route, the data should be included with or summarized in the Letter of Interest; however, this is not required. Respondent should also indicate that they are willing to provide a Letter of Support for the City s application for grant funding from the U.S. Department of Transportation Small Community Air Service Development Program ( SCASDP ). 5. Due to funding limitations, the City will select only one carrier for this program. Questions regarding the Incentive Program should be directed to Sara Meess at sarameess@ogdencity.com or by phone at 1-801-629-8974.
Market Assessment Analysis for Ogden-Hinckley Airport March 2015 Prepared by: Tri-Star Marketing Company Irvine, CA
TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction and Overview 1-3 Trends and Current Statistics 4 20 Catchment Area Analysis 21-24 Passenger Forecast 25 35 Forecast of Flights and Target Airlines 36-42 Conclusion and Recommendations 43-47
Introduction This Market Assessment Study is being developed to determine the true passenger demand for commercial air service for the Ogden-Hinckley Airport. It is intended to review and assess the current travel patterns in the Airport catchment area and estimate the potential passengers and markets for new nonstop service. This Assessment utilizes airline industry data provided by airline passenger booking data, the U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Census data, and Airport data as the basis for its review and projections. The passenger booking data is from Global Distribution Systems passenger booking data and adjusted for the size of the sample and the experience in the market. This is the best tool to determine passenger booking trends and leakage to and from other airports. This data is extremely effective for forecasting passengers for satellite airport in large metropolitan areas. 1
Overview The Salt Lake City metro market and Salt Lake City International Airport continue to exhibit strong growth. The total population for the metro market has increased by 10.2% since 2010 and continues to expand north and south along the I-15 corridor. The Ogden-Hinckley Airport is 40 miles north of Salt Lake City International Airport. It has a primary catchment area of 750,800 residents and at total catchment area of over 1 million residents. The primary area population increased by 22% since 2010. The six counties in the primary market area account for over 31.2% of the Salt Lake metro area population. The Ogden-Hinckley Airport is currently served by Allegiant Airlines with flights to Phoenix-Mesa Airport with MD-83 and A-319 aircraft. Flight frequency at two to three round trip flights per week. The passenger load factors have been very high at 90% for 2013 and 89% for 2014. 2
Overview The passenger booking data indicates that the Ogden catchment area is generating over 25% of the passenger bookings for the total Salt Lake City market area with 60% flying on Delta. The Passenger Forecast for OGD is developed by using its share of passenger bookings factored against the actual passenger flown in the each city pair market to and from SLC for 2014. This model produces the potential passengers for OGD. Estimates of actual passengers are developed based on actual experience in the Phoenix market and experience in other satellite airports in the West. The Passenger Forecast has been developed by hub airport to produce the maximum amount of passengers and follow current airline strategy. The dominant airlines at each hub are analyzed to produce the best candidates for OGD. 3
TRENDS AND CURRENT STATISTICS
Defining the Ogden-Hinckley Airport Catchment Area Ogden's primary catchment area consist of six Utah counties. The secondary catchment area includes eight counties in Idaho. The total population of the total market area is over 1,000,000. 4
Population data for OGD Catchment Area The population of the Primary Market is 73% of the total Catchment Area County Population Housing Units Primary Market Box Elder Cache Davis Morgan Rich Weber Sub Total Secondary Market Bannock, ID Bear Lake, ID Bingham, ID Bonneville, ID Caribou, ID Franklin, ID Oneida, ID Power, ID Sub Total Grand Total 50,794 116,909 332,094 10,173 2,288 238,519 750,777 83,249 5,943 45,290 107,517 6,808 12,854 4,275 7,719 273,655 1,024,432 17,901 38,725 101,407 3,212 1,882 87,105 33,176 3,957 16,110 40,244 3,202 4,612 1,925 2,916 106,142 356,379 Source: US Census Bureau Data, 2013 5
Population data for the SLCIA Catchment Area The Ogden Airport Primary Catchment Area population is 31% of the total Area Catchment Area Population Housing Units Ogden Airport Provo Airport Salt Lake City Airport Total Area OGD Primary Market Share of Total 871,625 611,464 1,301,827 2,784,916 31.2% 300,020 177,497 470,390 947,907 31.6% Source: US Census Bureau Data, 2013 6
Population data for Expanded SLCIA Catchment Area The Ogden Airport Total Catchment Area population is 34.8% of the total Area Catchment Area Population Housing Units Ogden Airport Provo Airport Salt Lake City Airport Total Area OGD Total Market Share of Total 1,024,432 611,464 1,301,827 2,937,723 34.8% 356,379 177,497 470,390 1,004,266 35.5% Source: US Census Bureau Data, 2013 6
Distances and Driving Times to Ogden-Hinckley Airport The primary markets are very convenient to OGD. County Major City Distance from OGD Driving Time to OGD Primary Market Box Elder Cache Davis Morgan Rich Weber Secondary Market Bannock, ID Bear Lake, ID Bingham, ID Bonneville, ID Caribou, ID Franklin, ID Oneida, ID Power, ID Brigham City Logan Farmington Morgan Garden City Ogden Pocatello Montpelier Moreland Idaho Falls Soda Springs Preston Malad American Falls 26 miles 49 miles 18 miles 24 miles 88 miles 4 miles 131 miles 121 miles 158 miles 180 miles 137 miles 121 miles 75 miles 156 miles :26 :49 :21 :27 1:40 :07 1:47 2:12 2:08 2:26 1:57 1:20 1:04 2:07 7
Population Growth for OGD Primary Airport Primary Catchment Area and the State of Utah From 1960 to 2013, the OGD Primary Catchment Area increased 210.4% while the State of Utah increased 221.9%. Source: US Census Bureau data 8
Historic O&D Passengers and Average Fares at Ogden-Hinckley Airport All passengers for the Ogden-Phoenix/Mesa market Year Total Passengers Net OW Avg. Fare % Originate At OGD 2012 8,465 $54.63 56.9% 2013 30,182 44.94 52.1% 2014 36,035 50.39 50.6% Source: OGD Airport enplaned and deplaned passenger data. DOT data for average fare and originating passengers 9
Historical Passengers and Load Factors for Allegiant OGD-AZA Service 10 Month Enplaned Passengers Aircraft Flights Seats Load Factor 2012 September October November December Total 2013 January February March April May June July August September October November December Total 470 1,071 1,350 1,370 4,261 1,036 1,235 1,407 1,340 1,287 1,136 1,341 1,310 1,267 1,185 1,265 1,284 15,093 MD-83 MD-83 MD-83 MD-83 MD-83 MD-83 MD-83 MD-83 A-319 A-319 A-319 MD-83/A-319 MD-83/A-319 A-319 A-319 A-319 4 8 9 9 30 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 1/8 2/7 8 9 9 104 600 1,200 1,494 1,494 4,788 1,328 1,328 1,494 1,494 1,404 1,248 1,404 1,414 1,424 1,248 1,404 1,404 16,594 78.3% 89.2% 90.4% 91.7% 89.0% 78.0% 93.0% 94.2% 89.7% 91.7% 91.0% 95.5% 92.6% 89.0% 94.9% 90.1% 91.5% 90.9%
Historical Passengers and Load Factors for Allegiant OGD-AZA Service Month 2014 January February March April May June July August September October November December Total Enplaned Passengers Aircraft Flights Seats 1,319 1,218 1,427 1,212 1,318 1,583 1,463 1,160 1,284 2,570 1,774 1,741 18,069 A-319 MD-83/A-319 MD-83 MD-83 A-319 MD-83/A-319 MD-83/A-319 A-319 MD-83 MD-83 MD-83 MD-83 9 5/3 9 8 9 1/10 2/8 8 9 18 14 12 125 1,404 1,298 1,494 1,328 1,404 1,726 1,580 1,248 1,494 2,988 2,324 1,992 20,280 Load Factor 93.9% 93.8% 95.5% 91.3% 93.9% 91.7% 92.6% 92.9% 85.9% 86.0% 76.3% 87.4% 89.1% Source: OGD airport data 11
Historical Passengers for Salt Lake City Area Airports Year SLC PVU OGD Total 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 9,644,030 10,440,780 10,628,778 10,527,147 9,786,728 9,635,849 9,829,003 9,726,480 9,764,567 10,082,189 - - - - - - 28,150 57,809 39,280 102,949 - - - - - - - 7,954 14,700 24,767 9,644,030 10,440,780 10,628,778 10,527,147 9,786,728 9,635,849 9,857,153 9,792,243 9,818,547 10,209,905 Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, origin and destination passengers 12
Historical Passengers for Salt Lake City Area Airports Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, origin and destination passengers 13
Top Domestic Passenger Markets for SLC 14 Rank Market Total Daily OW Passengers Total Annual Passengers % Originating at SLC Net One Way Avg. Fare 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 DEN LAX PHX SEA LAS JFK LGB OAK SAN PDX DFW ATL MCO SFO ORD IAH SNA BWI BOS MSP DCA DTW PHL SJC SMF 752.4 716.0 627.9 548.8 488.4 435.7 416.9 406.3 387.2 378.2 351.7 307.1 286.6 284.1 261.1 246.1 240.2 237.1 232.1 215.6 210.0 170.1 165.0 165.0 152.6 549,268 522,697 458,394 400,643 356,542 318,037 304,326 296,566 262,630 276,039 256,765 224,194 209,207 207,365 190,599 179,685 175,355 173,094 169,404 157,404 153,294 124,196 120,447 120,421 111,430 47.0% 48,9% 50.9% 49.5% 67.3% 43.2% 58.9% 46.7% 54.7% 49.9% 44.5% 43.6% 69.1% 49.4% 44.8% 43.0% 58.9% 41.6% 45.2% 42.3% 52.2% 44.0% 38.5% 48.4% 42.5% $114.32 147.49 164.11 151.23 124.12 305.23 115.66 162,45 156.65 149.73 228.39 286.55 241.23 199.41 276.63 275.93 170.28 243.38 302.74 261.17 297.96 276.38 304.77 185.24 196.80
Top Domestic Passenger Markets for SLC 15 Rank Market Total Daily OW Passengers Total Annual Passengers % Originating at SLC Net One Way Avg. Fare 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 EWR HNL AUS MCI MDW STL SAT FLL ONT BNA RDU CLT TPA ABQ IND BUR LGA BOI CVG RNO TUS GEG MSY IAD ANC Sub Total Grand Total 151.2 150.3 137.9 131.6 125.9 123.7 123.0 120.6 114.6 101.7 100.0 96.8 94.6 91.9 89.1 88.5 85.7 82.2 81.3 79.3 77.5 76.8 72.5 70.4 68.6 11,218.1 13,789.6 110,367 109,749 100,669 96,081 91,911 90,304 89,825 88,052 83,626 74,241 73,018 70,628 69,048 67,089 65,075 64,625 62,539 59,986 59,376 57,895 56,596 56,096 52,957 51,418 50,053 8,189,227 10,066,437 38.3% 71.7% 45.9% 48.1% 43.6% 45.9% 53.1% 60.9% 47.0% 48.7% 40.6% 39.2% 46.5% 54.6% 44.8% 41.8% 43.5% 48.4% 34.4% 48.7% 47.4% 49.2% 57.9% 44.3% 60.4% 49.5% 49.4% $305.78 364.97 222.94 201.14 215.47 217.25 212.84 272.91 169.43 233.40 247.69 280.70 273.10 177.26 229.45 162.86 242.59 176.33 272.54 177.48 180.76 211.55 258.56 272.98 318.35 $202.30 $213.70
Top International Markets for SLC Rank Market Annual Passengers Net One Way Avg. Fare 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Cancun London Mexico City Vancouver Cabo San Lucas Toronto Paris Guadalajara Calgary Puerto Vallarta Lima Montreal Seoul Frankfurt Shanghei Beijing Amsterdam Sao Paulo San Jose Edmonton 53,265 35,233 30,856 28,989 26,379 25,689 21,549 20,195 18,630 16,046 14,705 14,612 13,423 11,018 9,836 9,309 9,027 8,777 7,833 7,781 $299 969 378 314 292 398 1,118 312 351 367 647 398 980 783 1,102 946 1,034 1,021 555 331 16
SLC International Passengers by Region Mexico is the largest international market for SLC Source: GDS booking data, YE Sept. 30, 2014. 17
Salt Lake Area Passengers by Airport SLCIA dominates the current airport of choice Source: GDS booking data, YE Sept. 30, 2014. 18
Share of Phoenix Passengers by Airport Source: DOT origin and destination passengers,. YE Sept 30, 2014. 19
Salt Lake Area Passenger Bookings by Primary Airport Catchment Area 37% of the passengers live in other airport catchment areas. Source: GDS booking data, YE Sept. 30, 2014. 20
Primary Catchment Area Analysis
OGD Primary Catchment Area Bookings by County Source: Sabre ADI booking data, YE Sept. 2014 21
OGD Primary Catchment Area Bookings by Airline Source: Sabre ADI booking data, YE Sept. 2014 22
OGD Total Catchment Area Bookings by Airport of Use Source: Sabre ADI booking data, YE Sept. 2014 23
Estimated Leakage for Local Ogden Market Total SLC Local Passengers 10,066,437 Ogden Share of Local Bookings 25.0% Projected Ogden Local Passengers 2,516,600 Current Ogden Passengers 36,305 Leaked Ogden Local Passengers 2,480,295 24
Passenger Forecast
Passenger Forecast for Ogden-Hinckley Airport The previous analysis sets forth the calculation of true passengers for the Ogden-Hinckley Airport catchment area. The passengers include actual passengers and leaked passengers. The passenger forecast presented herein is based on Ogden- Hinckley Airport catchment area passenger bookings. The estimated passengers are derived by factoring the actual SLC O&D passengers for each market by the OGD share of passenger bookings for each market. The capture rate for the passenger forecast was derived from the historical experience in the Phoenix market and its share of the total Salt Lake City market area. This capture rate correlates with the experience in other satellite airport markets. 25
Passenger Forecast for Ogden-Hinckley Airport Market Annual SLC Passengers % from OGD Area Potential OGD Passengers Denver Los Angeles Phoenix Seattle/Tacoma Las Vegas New York (JFK) Long Beach Oakland San Diego Portland Dallas/Ft. Worth Atlanta Orlando San Francisco Chicago (ORD) Houston (IAH) Orange County Baltimore Boston Minneapolis Washington DC (DCA) Detroit Philadelphia San Jose Sacramento 549,268 522,697 458,394 400,643 356,542 318,037 304,326 296,566 282,630 276,039 256,765 224,194 209,207 207,365 190,599 179,685 175,355 173,094 169,404 157,404 153,294 124,196 120,447 120,421 111,430 22.9% 21.3% 28.3% 22.0% 36.2% 21.8% 28.8% 31.1% 22.2% 19.1% 21.0% 25.2% 22.7% 21.0% 25.2% 36.7% 27.7% 24.2% 24.0% 28.9% 14.4% 51.3% 24.7% 27.1% 19.7% 125,780 111,330 129,750 88,140 129,070 69,330 87,650 92,230 62,740 52,720 53,920 56,500 47,490 43,550 48,030 65,940 48,570 41,890 40,660 45,490 22,070 63,710 29,750 32,630 21,950 26
Passenger Forecast for Ogden-Hinckley Airport Market Annual SLC Passengers % from OGD Area Potential OGD Passengers Newark Honolulu Austin Kansas City Chicago (MDW) St. Louis San Antonio Ft. Lauderdale Ontario Nashville Raleigh/Durham Charlotte Tampa Albuquerque Indianapolis Burbank New York (LGA) Boise Cincinnati Reno Tucson Spokane New Orleans Washington DC (IAD) Anchorage Sub Total Grand Total 110,367 109,749 100,669 96,081 91,911 90,304 89,825 88,052 83,626 74,241 73,018 70,628 69,048 67,089 65,075 64,625 62,539 59,986 59,376 57,895 56,596 56,096 52,957 51,418 50,053 8,189,227 10,066,437 32.5% 31.2% 20.9% 19.7% 54.8% 19.4% 14.4% 26.5% 36.0% 22.4% 27.2% 26.7% 24.7% 20.6% 23.2% 15.4% 24.6% 30.8% 25.3% 20.6% 12.5% 19.8% 19.8% 13.6% 19.7% 25.3% 25,3% 35,870 34,240 21,040 18,980 50,360 17,520 12,930 23,330 30,100 16,630 19,860 18,860 17,050 13,820 15,100 9,950 15,380 18,480 15,020 11,930 7,070 11,200 10,480 6,990 9,860 2,072,890 2,546,540 27
Forecast of OGD Passengers That Would Use Dallas/Ft. Worth as a Hub Airport The markets to DFW are projected to produce 10.4% of the traffic Market Potential Passengers Capture Rate Forecast OGD Passengers OGD DFW OGD ATL OGD MCO OGD IAH OGD AUS OGD SAT OGD FLL OGD BNA OGD RDU OGD CLT OGD TPA OGD MSY OGD Other Total 53,920 56,500 47,490 65,940 21,040 12,930 23,330 16,630 19,860 18,860 17,050 10,480 54,600 418,630 30% 16,180 5,650 4,750 6,590 2,100 1,290 2,330 1,660 1,990 1,890 1,700 1,050 5,460 52,640 28
Forecast of OGD Passengers That Would Use Denver as a Hub Airport The markets to DEN are projected to produce 20.1% of the traffic Market Potential Passengers Capture Rate Forecast OGD Passengers OGD DEN OGD JFK OGD ORD OGD BWI OGD BOS OGD MSP OGD DCA OGD DTW OGD PHL OGD EWR OGD MCI OGD MDW OGD STL OGD IND OGD LGA OGD CVG OGD IAD ODG Other Total 125,780 69,030 48,030 41,890 40,660 45,490 22,070 63,710 29,750 35,670 18,930 50,360 17,520 15,100 15,380 15,020 6,990 99,280 761,160 30% 37,730 6,930 4,800 4,190 4,070 4,550 2,210 6,370 2,970 3,590 1,890 5,040 1,750 1,510 1,540 1,500 700 9,930 101,270 29
Forecast of OGD Passengers That Would Use Las Vegas as a Hub Airport The markets to LAS are projected to produce 22.5% of the traffic Market Potential Passengers Capture Rate Forecast OGD Passengers OGD LAS OGD LAX OGD PHX OGD LGB OGD OAK OGD SAN OGD SFO OGD SNA OGD SJC OGD ONT OGD ABQ OGD BUR OGD TUS OGD Other Total 129,070 111,330 129,750 87,650 92,230 62,740 43,550 48,570 32,630 30,100 13,820 9,950 7,070 79,850 878,310 30% 38,720 11,130 12,970 8,760 9,220 6,270 4,350 4,860 3,260 3,010 1,380 990 710 7,990 113,620 30
Forecast of OGD Passengers That Would Use Los Angeles as a Hub Airport The markets to LAX are projected to produce 16.7% of the traffic Market Potential Passengers Capture Rate Forecast OGD Passengers OGD LAX OGD LGB OGD SAN OGD SNA OGD HNL OGD ONT OGD BUR OGD Other Total 111,330 87,650 62,740 48,570 34,240 30,100 9,950 57,700 442,280 30% 20% 20% 20% 20% 33,400 17,530 6,270 9,710 3,420 6,020 1,990 5,770 84,110 31
Forecast of OGD Passengers That Would Use Phoenix as a Hub Airport The markets to PHX are projected to produce 12.3% of the traffic Market Potential Passengers Capture Rate Forecast OGD Passengers OGD PHX OGD DFW OGD IAH OGD AUS OGD SAT OGD ABQ OGD TUS OGD MSY OGD Other Total 129,750 53,920 65,940 21,040 12,930 13,820 7,070 10,480 47,240 361,560 30% 38,920 5.390 6.590 2.100 1.290 1.380 710 1.050 4.720 62,150 32
Forecast of OGD Passengers That Would Use San Francisco as a Hub Airport The markets to SFO are projected to produce 9.6% of the traffic Market Potential Passengers Capture Rate Forecast OGD Passengers OGD SFO OGD OAK OGD SJC OGD SMF OGD HNL OGD RNO OGD Other Total 43,550 92,230 32,630 21,950 34,240 11,930 35,000 271,530 30% 20% 20% 13,070 18,450 6,520 2,190 3,420 1,190 3,500 48,340 33
Forecast of OGD Passengers That Would Use Seattle/Tacoma as a Hub Airport The markets to SEA are projected to produce 8.4% of the traffic Market Potential Passengers Capture Rate Forecast OGD Passengers OGD SEA OGD PDX OGD HNL OGD BOI OGD GEG OGD ANC OGD Other Total 88,140 52,720 32,240 18,480 11,200 9,870 31,900 244,550 30% 26,440 5,270 3,220 1,850 1,120 990 3,190 42,080 34
Forecast of OGD Passengers for Allegiant Airlines Market Potential Passengers Capture Rate Forecast OGD Passengers Los Angeles Area OGD LAX OGD LGB OGD SNA OGD ONT OGD BUR Total Las Vegas OGD LAS 111,330 87,650 48,570 30,100 9,950 287,600 129,070 30% 20% 20% 20% 20% 30% 33,400 17,530 9,710 6,020 1,990 68,650 38,720 Phoenix OGD PHX/AZA 129,750 30% 38,920 S.F. Bay Area OGD OAK OGD SFO OGD SJC Total 92,230 43,550 32,630 168,410 30% 20% 20% 27,670 8,710 6,530 42,910 35
Forecast of Flights and Target Airlines
Airlines and Aircraft That Could Operate at Ogden-Hinckley Airport Airline Aircraft Type Seats American Airlines Alaska Airlines Allegiant Airlines CRJ-200* ERJ-145 CRJ-700* CRJ-900 E-170 E-175 E-190 A-319 B-737-800 Q-400 B-737-700 B-737-800 A-319 MD-83 A-320 50 50 65 79 69 80 99 124 148 76 124 163 156 166 177 36
Airlines and Aircraft That Could Operate at OGD Airline Aircraft Type Seats Delta Air Lines CRJ-200* CRJ-700* A-319 A-320 B-737-800 A-321 50 65 126 150 160 192 Frontier Airlines A-319 A-320 138 168 Hawaiian Airlines A-321 neo 190 Jet Blue Airways E-190 A-320 A-321 100 150 159 Southwest Airlines B-737-700 B-737-800 143 175 37
Airlines and Aircraft That Could Operate at OGD Airline Aircraft Type Seats United Airlines CRJ-200* ERJ-145 CRJ-700* E-170 E-175 A-319 A-320 B-737-800 50 50 64 70 76 128 150 166 * Operated by Sky West Airlines 38
Forecast of Flights and Load Factors by Market for Ogden-Hinckley Airport Market Forecast Passengers Airline Aircraft Ogden-Dallas 52,640 American American Delta Southwest Ogden-Denver 101,270 Delta Delta Southwest United United Ogden-Las Vegas 117,600 38,720 Alaska Southwest Allegiant CRJ-700 737-800 CRJ-700 737-700 CRJ-700 A-319 737-700 CRJ-700 A-319 Q-400 737-700 A-319 Weekly Flights 10 RT 5 RT 10 RT 5 RT 20 RT 10 RT 9 RT 20 RT 10 RT 18 RT 10 RT 3 RT Load Factor 77.9% 69.0% 77.9% 70.8% 74.9% 77.3% 75.6% 77.3% 76.1% 82.6% 79.1% 80.6% 39
Forecast of Flights and Load Factors by Market for Ogden-Hinckley Airport Market Ogden-Los Angeles 84,110 Forecast Passengers Airline Aircraft 68,650 Ogden-Oakland 53,200 42,910 American American Alaska Delta Delta Southwest United United Allegiant Southwest Allegiant Ogden-Phoenix 62,150 American American American Southwest CRJ-700 A-319 Q-400 CRJ-700 A-319 737-700 CRJ-700 A-319 A-319 737-700 A-319 CRJ-700 CRJ-900 A-319 737-700 Weekly Flights 17 RT 8 RT 14 RT 17 RT 8 RT 7 RT 17 RT 8 RT 4.5 RT 5 RT 3 RT 12 RT 10 RT 6 RT 6 RT Load Factor 73.2% 81.5% 76.0% 73.2% 81.5% 80.8% 73.2% 79.0% 94.0% 71.5% 88.1% 77.0% 75.6% 80.3% 74.6% 40
Forecast of Flights and Load Factors by Market for Ogden-Hinckley Airport Market Forecast Passengers Airline Aircraft Weekly Flights Load Factor Ogden-Phoenix/Mesa 38,920 Allegiant A-319 3 RT 88.1% Ogden-San Francisco 48,340 Southwest United United 737-700 CRJ-700 A-319 4 RT 10 RT 5 RT 81.2% 72.6% 72.5% Ogden-Seattle 38,370 Alaska Delta Q-400 CRJ-700 6 RT 7 RT 80.9% 82.1% 41
New Ogden Markets by Airline Airline Alaska Allegiant American Delta Southwest United Market Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Seattle Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Oakland Dallas, Los Angeles, Phoenix Dallas, Denver, Los Angeles, Seattle Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles Oakland, Phoenix Denver, Los Angeles, San Francisco 42
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
Conclusion The Ogden-Hinckley Airport is a viable satellite airport located north of Salt Lake City International Airport. It is easily accessible to over 750,000 residents in the primary market and over 250,000 residents in the secondary market. The primary market accounts for 31% of the total area population. Air service by Allegiant Airlines to Phoenix-Mesa Airport has proven to be a very good test market. This service has operated at a 90% load factor and captured 6% of the total Salt Lake City metro market to Phoenix. Additional flights attracted additional passengers. Passenger booking analysis shows that bookings in the Ogden primary catchment area accounts for 25% of the total bookings for the total Salt Lake City metro area. Delta Air Lines carries 60% of the booked passengers. 43
Conclusion The Passenger Forecast based on passenger bookings for OGD and actual passengers for SLC indicate that there is enough passengers to support new nonstop jet service from Ogden-Hinckley Airport to Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Oakland, San Francisco, and Seattle. Target Airlines include Alaska Airlines, Allegiant Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines. Some of the routes for American, Delta, and United could be operated by Sky West Airlines with regional jet aircraft. 44