1Q 2014 Greater Atlanta HBA Builder Developer Lender Council meeting 5-21-2014 Information presented by Eugene James, Regional Director ejames@metrostudy.com 404-510-1080 connect on LinkedIn Atlanta Job Growth 100000 METRO ATLANTA ANNUAL RATE OF NON-AG NEW JOB FORMATION TOTAL EMPLOYMENT Dec 63,100 up 2.6% Jan 59,900 up 2.5% Up 1.4% Feb 42,600 up 1.8% Mar 51,500 up 2.2% 50000 0-50000 -100000 Atlanta unemployment rate declined to 8.3% in Sept -150000-200000 Mar-14 Mar-13 Mar-12 Mar-11 Mar-10 Mar-09 Mar-08 Mar-07 Mar-06 Mar-05 Mar-04 Mar-03 Mar-02 Apr-01 Apr-00 1
Unemployment Rate & Consumer Confidence Index 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Unemployment Rate & Consumer Confidence Index Present Situation Unemployment rate Why it matters 10.0% 9.3% 8.6% 7.9% 7.2% 6.5% 5.8% 5.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.0% Source: Conference Board, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics National Economic Overview Metrostudy, a Hanley Wood Company 2014 May 20, 2014 3 Year over Year Closings level Inventory up + 9% Closings volume level for 21 months at about 58,000 Includes single family detached, townhome and condo 58,200 March 2014 15% TH/Condo Closings 13% TH/Condo Inventory Source: FMLS Only 2
Includes single family detached, townhome and condo 3.9 months 6 to 7 months was about normal Inventory and months supply have increased but demand remains ahead of supply 8,000 ATLANTA NEW HOME MARKET MARKET Quarterly Starts and Closings (move-ins) 7,000 6,000 Closings follow classic new home pattern. Closings grow each month into the spring and summer, decline in the second half of the year. Reflects extreme seasonality of real estate and construction. 5,000 4,000 3,401 +28% 3,000 2,000 3,141 +37% 1,000-1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 Quarterly Starts Quarterly Closings 3
Atlanta New Home Closings Price Trends 1Q Median New Home Price is $275,000 The Highest Price Ever Source: Metrosearch Property Analysis Check New Construction only Reports, Transaction Analysis, New, Resale, and Foreclosures By Housing Type Source: Metrosearch Property Analysis Run for new only. ATLANTA TOP COMMUNITIES RANKED BY CLOSINGS 1Q14 Subdivision Na me Ma rke t Are a Price R a nge Annua l Sta rts Annua l Sa le s 1 Lake Lanier/Cresswind Hall $153-$373 132 114 2 Deaton Creek/Village Hall $184-$382 113 108 3 Seven Hills Paulding $144-$479 149 107 4 James Creek Forsyth $169-$415 80 100 5 Sun City Peachtree Spalding $131-$246 100 93 6 Oakley Township Fulton (South) $117-$251 91 79 7 Bridgetowne Forsyth $110-$220 68 74 8 TH/Avondale, Townes Gwinnett $142-$159 78 71 9 Saddlebrook FO Forsyth $194-$307 59 71 10 James Creek/Edgebrook Forsyth $301-$401 118 69 11 Trillium Forest Gwinnett $160-$240 78 69 12 Newnan Lakes Coweta $140-$290 58 69 13 Arthur Hills/Creek Paulding $208-$232 75 68 14 Palmetto Farms/Legacy Fulton (South) $125-$207 72 67 15 Jamestown Forsyth $200-$413 90 65 4
http://www.metrosearchusa.com/pf_sublisting.asp 5/7/2014 Updated through March 2014 Metrostudy Permit Employment Population (Sorted by Permit (SF) Descending) Rank State Name Permit (SF) Change (SF) Permit (MF) Change (MF) Current Employment Job Growth # Job Growth % E-P Ratio Population (Estimate) 1 TX Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land 35,088 4,810 16,924 990 2,847,200 80,100 2.9% 1.5 6,352,744 TX 2 TX Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington TX 21,269 2,684 17,945 2,742 3,145,700 92,700 3.0% 2.4 6,887,537 3 GA Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta GA 15,194 4,642 9,428 3,990 2,427,100 51,500 2.2% 2.1 5,574,225 4 DC Washington-Arlington-Alexandria 13,703 1,426 11,061 1,349 3,064,700 5,500 0.2% 0.2 5,978,220 DC-VA-MD-WV 5 AZ Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 12,484 56 6,689 3,111 1,850,700 39,900 2.2% 2.1 4,430,607 6 NY New York-Northern New Jersey- Long Island NY-NJ-PA 10,365 3,412 32,298 11,461 8,667,000 89,500 1.0% 2.1 19,985,109 7 FL Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL 9,811 2,117 5,681 661 1,092,200 33,300 3.1% 2.1 2,277,414 8 TX Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, 9,494 1,209 9,800-2,071 885,900 32,900 3.9% 1.7 1,912,746 TX 9 NC Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC 8,996 1,775 5,327-405 887,800 20,700 2.4% 1.4 2,337,694 10 WA Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA 8,634 132 9,476 348 1,801,600 43,400 2.5% 2.4 3,606,687 11 NC Raleigh-Cary NC 8,018 1,194 3,440-2,802 553,300 19,700 3.7% 1.7 1,219,465 12 TN Nashville-Davidson-- 7,505 1,686 4,400 2,364 824,200 25,700 3.2% 2.2 1,765,552 Murfreesboro TN 13 IL Chicago-Naperville-Joliet IL-IN- WI 7,453 1,497 6,150 2,549 4,392,500 29,300 0.7% 2.2 9,557,430 14 CO Denver-Aurora CO 7,213 896 8,047 144 1,303,500 33,600 2.6% 2.2 2,709,688 15 MN Minneapolis-St. Paul- Bloomington MN-WI 7,101 1,160 5,074-333 1,788,500 24,100 1.4% 2.0 3,459,074 16 FL Tampa-St. Petersburg- 7,001 551 4,306-1,019 1,203,800 30,000 2.6% 2.7 2,886,350 Clearwater FL 17 NV Las Vegas-Paradise NV 6,686-135 2,241 1,468 870,000 30,600 3.6% 3.4 2,034,918 18 OK Oklahoma City OK 6,316 1,619 893-664 618,900 15,000 2.5% 2.1 1,325,743 19 FL Jacksonville FL 6,243 1,109 1,619-1,167 623,000 19,200 3.2% 2.4 1,397,575 20 PA Philadelphia-Camden- 6,149 726 5,126 901 2,738,100 4,000 0.1% 0.4 6,049,157 Wilmington PA-NJ-DE-MD 21 CA Riverside-San Bernardino- 6,028 1,224 2,582 1,159 1,247,000 32,400 2.7% 3.8 4,414,524 Ontario CA 22 TX San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 6,001 820 3,100 438 917,000 17,000 1.9% 1.9 2,294,934 23 FL Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach FL 5,951 524 13,701 6,237 2,417,700 72,800 3.1% 3.7 5,860,668 24 OR Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 5,460 570 4,528-31 1,049,700 27,900 2.7% 2.8 2,321,299 25 MI Detroit-Warren-Livonia MI 5,323 1,017 736 214 1,840,900-4,400-0.2% -0.7 4,291,337 26 MA Boston-Cambridge-Quincy MA- NH 5,072 928 6,945 2,170-0 0.0% 0.0 4,694,099 27 IN Indianapolis IN 4,978 700 2,754 1,890 939,400 20,200 2.2% 2.6 1,955,766 28 MD Baltimore-Towson MD 4,845 710 2,200-493 1,335,500 13,000 1.0% 1.8 2,780,365 29 MO St. Louis MO-IL 4,641 213 1,095-549 1,315,300 14,000 1.1% 2.4 2,798,724 30 MO Kansas City MO-KS 4,144 683 3,798 1,969 1,001,900 7,600 0.8% 1.0 2,057,706 31 VA Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport 3,957 324 1,873-318 744,300-2,100-0.3% -0.4 1,722,167 News VA-NC 32 FL North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, 3,894 929 1,311 514 264,800 8,700 3.4% 1.7 735,292 FL 33 SC Charleston-North Charleston SC 3,726 354 2,056 29 310,600 3,400 1.1% 0.6 719,790 34 ID Boise City-Nampa ID 3,622 522 1,134 494 275,700 5,800 2.1% 1.2 652,299 35 VA Richmond VA 3,489 496 1,371-10 639,200 11,500 1.8% 2.4 1,247,586 36 OH Columbus OH 3,487 397 4,689 632 973,400 11,500 1.2% 1.4 1,971,051 37 CA San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont 3,460 115 6,779 338 2,125,200 47,100 2.3% 4.6 4,527,850 CA 38 UT Salt Lake City UT 3,436 355 2,607 1,579 669,700 10,800 1.6% 1.8 1,143,671 39 CA Sacramento--Arden-Arcade-- 3,411 127 689 226 876,700 16,700 1.9% 4.1 2,227,651