METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS

CIDENA 2011 The survey Citizenship, Democracy, and Durg-related violence (CIDENA, 2011) has the goal of providing information to contribute to a diagnosis on the complex dynamics between society and drug-relaed violence in Mexico. Four years after the start of this war on drugs in Mexico, nobody had measured the impact of this social conflict situation on democratic values, conceptions of citizenship and the Rule of Law. This excercise was done under the perspective of social psychology, as shown by cognitive interviews and list experiments.

CIDENA 2011- METHODOLOGY The survey Citizenship, Democracy, and Drugrelated Violence (CIDENA, 2011) was a national survey applied to men and women over 18 years old, inhabitants of the United States of Mexico. The field work was developed from May 10 through June 9, 2011, with home face-to-face interviews. The sample was of a total of 7,416 interviews at the national level. The margin of error nationally is of +/- 1. at 95% confidence. To select the electoral sections, the sample was designed under a stratified, complex, probabilistic, and proportional to size sample. For the purposes of the survey, it was important to compare results among states with different levels of violence. To achieve this purpose, the level of violence was measured through the number of executions collected by three main national newspapers: Reforma, El Universal, and Milenio. Sample included representativeness for 7 states with three different levels of violence: High levels of violence: Chihuahua, Guerrero, Michoacán, and Nuevo León. Intermediate levels of violence: Jalisco, and Estado de México Low levels of violence: Distrito Federal. The states in the sample also represent the three main political parties in the state government: Chihuahua (PRI); DF (PRD); Estado de México (PRI); Guerrero (PRD); Jalisco (PAN); Michoacán (PRD); Nuevo León (PRI). 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán, and Nuevo León with a margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero with a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

CORE CONCEPTS Ideology The survey has three sections that measure the opinion of citizens regarding issues with a deep ideological content. 1 2 Effects of violence on institutional evaluation This section approaches issues concerning the perception of the national economy, institutional trust, and political behavior. Security and victimization This section explores the way in which violence has affected the daily life of people, directly or indirectly: how they changed their activities, the way they protect their homes, or measures taken at their working places. 3 4 Social Capital The issue of social capital is an approach to the need of promoting collective actions to strength cultural values, institutions, as well as society s quality of life. Actions that are essential for economic, political or social development of the country might be affected by drug-related violence as well.

QUESTIONNAIRE VALIDATION COGNITIVE INTERVIEWS The questionnaire used in the survey when through a series of tests to avoid possible errors during the field work. To identify possible comprehension problems, cognitive interviews helped to find the mistakes on quesionnaire design. These interviews included an analysis of each of the questions in the questionnaire to evaluate comprehension, structure, phrasing and social desirability problems. TRIAL FIELD WORK Once the adjustments from the cognitive interviews were done, a small trial was undertaken in the state of Morelos. This trial enabled the verification of time of the interview, reception of the questionnaire by the respondants and observations concerning missing options in the answeres or uncomfortable questions to the respondant.

ADDITIONAL METHODOLOGICAL FEATURES LIST EXPERIMENT Questionnaire also includes a technique that allows to get better answers to sensible questions. For example: the approval of torture. This technique is know as list experiment or counting of elements. The idea in the example of list experiment, is asking a question that might be uncomfortable in an indirect way, such that there is a higher possibility of getting an honest answer from the respondants. To do these experiments, two groups are used: control and treatment. To apply all the questions done in a list experiment way, it was necessary to divide the sample. For this, 16 different questionnaires were sent to the field, alternating the questions between control and treatment groups. Where no respondants were found, the observation was replaced.

RELEVANT FINDINGS

Approval of the strategy Approval of the strategy Is the war being won or not? 1 Democratic values Rights and freedoms 2 Rule of Law 3 Physical abuse to obtain information Detention without proof Going against the law Self-defense groups Voting for drug-related candidates

HOW MUCH DO YOU APPROVE OR DISAPPROVE THE ACTIONS OF THE GOVERNMENT IN FIGHTING DRUG TRAFFICKING? NATIONAL 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 24% 16% 9% 1 Disapprove Somehow entirely Neither disapprove Somehow nor disapprove Approve entirely 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 13% 3% 5% 8% Disapprove entirely 6% Chihuahua Guerrero Michoacán Nuevo León 14% Disapprove entirely 33% 27% 2 23% 23% 19% 19% 8% Somehow disapprove Jalisco 1 17% Somehow disapprove Neither approve nor disapprove Estado de México 27% 13% Neither approve nor disapprove 3 27% 28% 3 26% 26% 17% 1 Somehow approve 2 Somehow approve Approve entirely 34% HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENCE INTERMEDIATE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE 33% Approve entirely Ciudadanía, Democracia y Narcoviolencia (CIDENA, 2011). July 2011. Sample size 7,416 at a national level. Margin of error +/- 1. at a 95% confidence level. 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán y Nuevo León. Margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero, margin of error of +/- 3.5%. SIMO Consulting, México. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 17% 2 Distrito Federal 13% 23% 24% LOW LEVELS OF VIOLENCE

IN YOUR OPINION, IS THE GOVERNMENT WINNING THE WAR ON DRUGS OR NOT? 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 NATIONAL 26% 53% 18% 3% Yes No Neither Don't know winning or loosing 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 56% 5 4 4 43% 33% 35% 2 25% 2 Yes No Neither winning nor loosing Estado de México 27% 17% 2 9% 6% Chihuahua Guerrero Michoacán Nuevo León 6 Jalisco 44% 1 27% Yes No Neither winning nor loosing HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENCE 3% 3% Don't know INTERMEDIATE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE Don't know Ciudadanía, Democracia y Narcoviolencia (CIDENA, 2011). July 2011. Sample size 7,416 at a national level. Margin of error +/- 1. at a 95% confidence level. 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán y Nuevo León. Margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero, margin of error of +/- 3.5%. SIMO Consulting, México. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 25% 65% 8% Yes No Neither winning nor loosing Distrito Federal Don't know LOW LEVELS OF VIOLENCE

SOME PEOPLE SAY THAT IN ORDER TO END DRUG TRAFFIC IN MEXICO, IT WILL BE NECESSARY TO LOSE SOME RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS. PLEASE TELL ME, WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS DO YOU AGREE THE MOST ( )? 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 NATIONAL 28% 69% It is necessary to lose We need to preserve some rights and our rights and freedoms, freedoms to fight drug even if this hinders the traffic war on drugs 3% A B C 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 33% Chihuahua Guerrero Michoacán Nuevo León 2 18% 2 It is necessary to lose some rights and freedoms to fight drug traffic Estado de México 25% 66% 75% 8 76% We need to preserve our rights and freedoms, even if this hinders the war on drugs Jalisco 7 78% 3% A B C HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENCE INTERMEDIATE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE 4% Ciudadanía, Democracia y Narcoviolencia (CIDENA, 2011). July 2011. Sample size 7,416 at a national level. Margin of error +/- 1. at a 95% confidence level. 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán y Nuevo León. Margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero, margin of error of +/- 3.5%. SIMO Consulting, México. 10 Distrito Federal 9 8 7 6 5 4 27% 3 1 7 A B C LOW LEVELS OF VIOLENCE 3%

WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS DO YOU AGREE THE MOST? ** HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENCE 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 NATIONAL 1 Government should use physical abuse to obtain information from people suspicious of belonging to drug cartels 86% Government should respect the rights of all its citizens, even of those suspicious of belonging to drug cartels 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 1 8% 2 Government should use physical abuse to obtain information from people suspicious of belonging to drug cartels Estado de México 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 17% 16% C 1 79% 87% 9 78% Government should respect the rights of all its citizens, even of those suspicious of belonging to drug cartels Chihuahua Guerrero Michoacán Nuevo León Jalisco 8 83% INTERMEDIATE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE A B A B C 3% Ciudadanía, Democracia y Narcoviolencia (CIDENA, 2011). July 2011. Sample size 7,416 at a national level. Margin of error +/- 1. at a 95% confidence level. 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán y Nuevo León. Margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero, margin of error of +/- 3.5%. SIMO Consulting, México. 10 Distrito Federal 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 16% 1 A B C LOW LEVELS OF VIOLENCE

WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS DO YOU AGREE THE MOST? * 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 NATIONAL 16% Arrest people even if there is no evidence against them 8 Nobody should be arrested without evidence against them A B C 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 18% 1 1 3 Arrest people even if there is no evidence against them Estado de México 16% Arrest people even if there is no evidence against them 8 89% 88% 69% Nobody should be arrested without evidence against them Chihuahua Guerrero Michoacán Nuevo León Jalisco 8 79% Nobody should be arrested without evidence against them HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENCE INTERMEDIATE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE Ciudadanía, Democracia y Narcoviolencia (CIDENA, 2011). July 2011. Sample size 7,416 at a national level. Margin of error +/- 1. at a 95% confidence level. 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán y Nuevo León. Margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero, margin of error of +/- 3.5%. SIMO Consulting, México. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 Distrito Federal 84% 15% A B C LOW LEVELS OF VIOLENCE

WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS DO YOU AGREE THE MOST? 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 NATIONAL A B C D 25% Voting for candidates related to drug cartels to re-establish peace and security 65% Voting for candidates that fight drug cartels even if it generates more violence and insecurity 9% No response 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 27% 2 2 18% Voting for candidates related to drug cartels to re-establish peace and security 2 3 77% 63% 7 77% Voting for candidates that fight drug cartels even if it generates more violence and insecurity 9% 6% 5% Chihuahua Guerrero Michoacán Nuevo León 67% 53% 1 HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENCE Estado de México 14% Jalisco A B C D No response INTERMEDIATE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE Ciudadanía, Democracia y Narcoviolencia (CIDENA, 2011). July 2011. Sample size 7,416 at a national level. Margin of error +/- 1. at a 95% confidence level. 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán y Nuevo León. Margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero, margin of error of +/- 3.5%. SIMO Consulting, México. 10 Distrito Federal 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 26% 3 1 1 LOW LEVELS OF VIOLENCE A B C D 3%

WHEN YOU THINK YOU ARE RIGHT, WOULD YOU BE WILLING TO GO AGAINST THE LAW ( )? NATIONAL 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENCE 6 54% 4 28% 29% 2 26% 28% 16% 18% 1 1 6% 8% 1 Never Almost never Almost always Always 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 43% 19% 18% 16% Never Almost never Almost always Always 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 Chihuahua Guerrero Michoacán Nuevo León INTERMEDIATE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE Estado de México Jalisco 36% 29% 3 2 19% 2 13% Never Almost never Almost always Always Ciudadanía, Democracia y Narcoviolencia (CIDENA, 2011). July 2011. Sample size 7,416 at a national level. Margin of error +/- 1. at a 95% confidence level. 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán y Nuevo León. Margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero, margin of error of +/- 3.5%. SIMO Consulting, México. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 LOW LEVELS OF VIOLENCE DISTRITO FEDERAL 3 29% 17% Never Almost never Almost always Always

SOME COMMUNITIES BESIEGED BY DRUG VIOLENCE HAVE STARTED TO ORGANIZE TO CREATE SELF-DEFENSE GROUPS. TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE WITH COMMUNITIES ORGANIZING INTO SELF-DEFENSE GROUPS? 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 NATIONAL 16% Disagree entirely 25% Slightly in 3 Somehow in 27% Entirely in 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 16% 6% 38% Disagree entirely 16% 45% 33% 23% 27% 28% 3 27% 16% Slightly in Somehow in 26% 23% 19% Entirely in Chihuahua Guerrero Michoacán Nuevo León Estado de México 27% 28% 26% 2 25% Disagree entirely Slightly in Somehow in HIGH LEVELS OF VIOLENCE 35% Entirely in INTERMEDIATE LEVELS OF VIOLENCE Jalisco Ciudadanía, Democracia y Narcoviolencia (CIDENA, 2011). July 2011. Sample size 7,416 at a national level. Margin of error +/- 1. at a 95% confidence level. 900 cases for Chihuahua, Distrito Federal, Estado de México, Jalisco, Michoacán y Nuevo León. Margin of error of +/- 3.3% at 95% confidence. And 816 cases for Guerrero, margin of error of +/- 3.5%. SIMO Consulting, México. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 1 15% 23% Distrito Federal 27% Disagree entirely Slightly in Somehow in LOW LEVELS OF VIOLENCE 34% Entirely in

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