The Changing Trends in the International Airline Industry Dr Frankie O Connell Annual Tourism Policy Workshop Dromoland, 2016
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Billions of passengers 1.13 1.15 1.14 1.23 1.30 1.40 1.45 1.47 1.56 1.67 1.64 1.63 1.69 1.88 2.02 2.19 2.30 2.37 2.37 2.5 2.69 2.81 2.94 3.02 3.21 Number of passengers carried worldwide (1991 2015) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 Source: O Connell, IATA, ICAO, AEA, AAPA, ATA, AACO
Passenger Traffic transported by different airline* business models 2003-2015 2003 2015 % change Full Service Airlines 1.3 billion 2.17 billion 67% Low Cost Carriers 178 million 862 million 384% Regional Airlines 147 million 107 million -27% Charter Airlines 83 million 78 million -6% Total 1.7 billion 3.21 billion 89% * Share by top 200 world airlines Source: O Connell, ICAO, AEA, ATA, AAPA, AACO
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LCC Penetration in N. America, W. Europe and S.E. Asia 1996-2016 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% North America Western Europe South East Asia Source: O Connell Analysis from OAG, 2016
Geographical Distribution of Passenger Traffic* 2000-2015 Passengers 2000 Passengers 2015 % Change (millions) (millions) North America 726 924 27% Europe 420 868 107% Asia-Pacific 378 1,035 174% Central/South America 82 181 120% Middle East 44 173 293% Africa 29 34 17% Total 1.67 billion 3.21 billion 92% * Share by top 200 world airlines Source: O Connell, ICAO, AEA, ATA, AAPA, AACO
1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2015 2019 2024 2029 2034 RPKs (Trillions) World Traffic Forecast (measured in RPKs) 1972-2034 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 ICAO data Air traffic has doubled every 15 years Airbus forecast Traffic is also expected to over the next 15 years 0 What is driving this traffic? Source: ICAO and Airbus GMF 2015
Main Drivers for Traffic Growth People exploring Tourism (e.g. Egypt) More economic prosperity growing middle class (now at 2.7 billion people) Dynamic growth in emerging markets (China, India, Asia Pacific, Latin America) Continued growth of Low Cost Carriers (particularly in Asia) Greater and continued market liberalisation worldwide More demand for overseas holidays and for short-breaks Wealthier people buying second homes overseas Businesses Travel is strongly connected to International Trade and Commerce Strong correlation between Economic Prosperity and growth in Traffic 215 million people live outside their country of birth (many family and friends will visit) 700,000 foreign students study in the US for example (many family and friends will visit)
Source: Airbus General Market Forecast 2016 Long term growth prospects of air traffic (2015-2035) In terms of Revenue Passenger Kilometres (demand) Asia Pacific 2015 traffic 2016-2035 traffic Europe North America Middle East Latin America CIS Africa 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Revenue Passenger Kilometres 2015 2015-2035
Number of aircraft worldwide Fleet evolution 2016-2035 40,000 39,820 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 19,580 aircraft 20,240 Aircraft needed for New Growth 12,830 Replacement aircraft 33,070 New Aircraft by 2035 5,000 0 6,750 Still be in service 2016 Global Fleet 2035 Global Fleet These 33,000 new planes will be worth around US$5 trillion over the next 20 years Source: Airbus General Market Forecasts 2016
1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 Net Profit / Loss (US$ Billions) Airline Revenues (US$ Billions) Net Profit/Loss and Revenues for World Commercial Airlines $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 $-5 $-10 $-15 $-20 $-25 $-30 & & & & & & 1978-2015 & & & & & & & $800 & && & $700 & & & $600 & & & $500 & & $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Net Profit/Loss Total Airline Revenues & Source: O Connell analysis from ICAO and IATA
Proportion of Total Revenues to Total Net Profit (2015 data) Total Revenues ($751 billion) Total Net Profit ($35.3 billion) Source: IATA
$ Billions $25 $20 $19.4 2015 Net Profit by Region North American Carriers made 58% of the Total Profits $15 $10 $5 $0 $-5 $6.9 $5.8 $1.4 $-0.3 $-0.3 North American carriers made $22.48 profit per passenger European carriers made $7.55 profit per passenger Asian carriers made $4.89 profit per passenger
The US carriers... Protectionism The US carriers have made Net Profits of $56 billion in over the last 6.5 years Domestic market United, American Airlines, Delta and Southwest control 80% of the US Domestic market With multiple restructuring and Merging of the Business they have stripped away costs which was significantly aided by Chapter 11 bankruptcy US Carriers are Controlling Capacity: They are only adding 1 to 2% seat capacity each year to the domestic market consequently the Load Factors are averaging 84% with breakeven Load Factors of 74% Limits foreign ownership to just 25%... Serving as a Barrier to Entry International market The Airline Alliances dominate the International markets Anti Trust Immunity allows the carriers to jointly fix fares, fix schedules & share revenues Norwegian has 2% market share across North Atlantic but has had to wait 3 years for its Irish Licence and 1 year for its UK Licence. This application falls within the EU-US open skies deal it is usually concluded within 2 months. Multiple excuses rendered particularly around Labour staffing... Protecting the Joint Ventures of ATI
Millions of passengers The Impact of Anti Trust Immunity on North Atlantic Traffic A significant amount of traffic is increasingly concentrated into a few airlines Source: US DOT, 2015 60 50 40 30 20 76.8% 79.8% 79.7% 87.4% 86.9% 86.8% 10 0 2003 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Passengers (Transatlantic flights) % of passengers on Immunized Carriers on Transatlantic market In 2014, the 3 big US legacy carriers generated around $3.4 billion in operating profit, from their International operations. $3.1 billion was generated from its N Atlantic operations
Average one-way transatlantic fare* $800 $700 $600 $545 +$121 +22% $666 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2000 2014 * After adjusting for inflation Source: Hawaiian Airlines
$ Billions $800 World Airline Revenues and Expenses 1991-2015 $600 $400 $200 $0 Operating Revenues Operating Expenses Source: ICAO and IATA
Millions Singapore Airlines 2015/16 financials 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Source: Singapore Airlines SIN $ Million Passenger Revenue 7,893.4 Cargo 999.4 Others 2,793.3 Total Operating Revenue 11,686.1 Total Operating Expenses 11,210.0 Operating Profit $476.1 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Operating Revenues and Expenses Total Revenues Total Expenses
US$ Dollars The volatility of Jet Fuel and Crude Oil Prices ($/barrel) 2008 2016 Source: Platts and IATA In 2014 Airlines (worldwide) spent $Billions on Fuel? In 2016 Airlines (worldwide) are estimated to spent? $226 Billion $127 Billion (44% less)
Cathay Pacific Fuel Hedging Issues 2015 data 2016: 62% of its Fuel at $85 per barrel For the first 6 months of 2016, Cathay posted fuel hedging losses of: $580 million For the second 6 months it will incur the same losses 2017: 51% of its Fuel at $89 per barrel 2018: 44% of its Fuel at $81 per barrel Fuel has fallen by 70% since 2014
Newer Disruptive Competition impacting Global Aviation Newer Competition Gulf Carrier Competition Turkish Airlines Long Haul Low Cost Carriers
Gulf Carrier Competition
Emirates Network Summer 2016 Qatar Airways Network Summer 2016
Indian Subcontinent to USA dynamics have changed Almost 25% of the world s population lives in the Indian subcontinent
Share of U.S. to Indian Subcontinent bookings 50% 39% 40% 38% ) ) 30% 19% 20% ) 12% 10% ) 36% ) 24% ) 39% ) 28% ) 37% 36% ) 31% 32% ) ) ) 40% ) 34% ) 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 US and JV ) ) 3 Gulf carriers JV partners include: Delta (Air France/KLM, V Australia, Alitalia, Virgin Atlantic); American Airlines (British Airways/Iberia, Qantas, JAL); United Airlines (Lufthansa, Swiss, Brussels, Austrian, Air Canada, ANA) Indian Subcontinent includes: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives Source: Restoring Open Skies
The number of wide body passenger aircraft in service & on order for the big 3 European, Asia and Gulf carriers (March 2016 data) Number of wide body aircraft 600 500 400 300 200 100 On Order In Service 0 Source: O Connell analysis from Airline annual report and Flightglobal 2016
Number of Seats on Order The number of wide body Seats on order for the Big 3 European, Asian and Gulf carriers (March 2016 data) 200,000 195,852 150,000 100,000 75,728 Includes: 787s 777s A350s A380s 50,000 43,596 0 British Airways Lufthansa Air France Cathay Pacific Singapore Airlines Japan Airlines Emirates Qatar Airways Etihad Airways Source: O Connell analysis from Airline annual report and Flightglobal 2016
Airports in the Gulf and Development Plans 2015 ($68 billion) Cost Passengers Planned in 2015 Passengers (US$) (millions) (2020) Details Sources: ACI & O Connell Dubai (Expansion) $5.4 billion 78 80 T3, Concourse, runway, cargo Dubai (New) $8.2 billion 0.5 160 Will be the world s largest airport Doha (New) $12 billion 31 50 Phase 2 will accommodate 70 m pax Abu Dhabi (Expansion) $6.8 billion 23.3 55 Runway renovation, Midfield T, Cargo, Maint Jeddah (Expansion) $7.2 billion 29 32 2 new Ts + upgrade Hajj Terminal Saudi Arabia (Domestic) $ 10-15 billion 49.7 --- Upgrading 28 airports till 2020 Kuwait $3.2 billion 10.4 12 New terminal Erbil (Iraq) $3.0 billion 1.2 --- New airport planned Muscat & Salalah (Oman) $2.6 billion 10.7 --- Major upgrade of Oman s 2 airports Madinah (Saudi) $2.4 billion 4.4 --- New airport built with private investment Baghdad (Iraq) $2.0 billion 1.5 --- 3 new Terminals and upgrades Sohar (Oman) $1.5 billion --- --- New airport under construction Bahrain $815 million 8.6 --- Development and upgrade Ajman (UAE) $800 million --- --- New International airport Amman (Queen Alia) $750 million 7.1 --- New terminal for 9 million pax Beirut $600 million 7.3 7 Upgrade and expansion Sana a (Yemen) $500 million 1.8 8 New T, upgrade taxiway & runway
Long Haul Low Cost Carriers Air Asia X long-haul fleet (2016) Currently operates 21 A330s Norwegian long-haul fleet (2016) Currently operates 10 787s Aircraft on order 66 A330-900neo 10 A350-900XWB 25 more 787-9 on order
Norwegian Long Haul network October 2016
From Scandinavia Norwegian is Strong 2015-2016 data Copenhagen - New York Copenhagen - Bangkok Copenhagen - Los Angeles Copenhagen - Miami/Fort Lauderale Oslo - New York Oslo - Bangkok Oslo - Miami/Fort Lauderale Oslo - Los Angeles Oslo - San Francisco Oslo - Orlando SAS Thai Airways Delta Air Lines United Airlines Norwegian Airlines Stockholm - New York Stockholm - Bangkok Stockholm - Los Angeles Stockholm - San Francisco Stockholm - Miami/Ft Lauderale Source: O Connell, OAG analysis November 2016 Departing seats 12 month period July 2015 to July 2016
AirAsia X is strong out of Malaysia July 2015 to July 2016 data Kuala Lumpar - Melbourne Kuala Lumpur - Sydney Kuala Lumpur - Jeddah Kuala Lumpur - Soeul (Incheon) Kuala Lumpur - Gold Coast Departing seats 12 month period July 2015 to July 2016 Source: O Connell, OAG analysis November 2016
Air Asia X Network 2012 and 2016 AirAsia X from KL 2016 AirAsia X from KL 2012 Will Air Asia X return to Europe again? Air Asia X will return to Europe this October 2016 Istanbul Barcelona More to come!! Air Asia X also has subsidiaries: Indonesia AirAsia X and Thai AirAsia X Aspirations to add Air Asia X outposts in India & Japan and operate to the USA
Passenger Connectivity of Air Asia X 49% (total Connecting traffic) 43% (1.4m pax) 38% 25% 33% 34% 34% 21% 16% 9% 4% 4% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Air Asia X to Air Asia Air Asia X* to Air Asia X Air Asia X carried 3.6 million passengers in 2015, with 56% connecting at KL About 800,000 connected through the group s Fly-Thru product, which offers passengers the option of paying an extra fee to through check bags & receive a boarding pass for the connecting flight, while 600,000 opted to self-connect.
Snapshot of the long haul routes operated by today s Long Haul LCCs LCC / LCC Group Longest Route Flight Time Aircraft Type Seats Seat Configuration Eurowings Cologne - Phuket 12 hours A330-200 330 21B, 48 PE, 261E Norwegian Copenhagen - Los Angeles 10.5 hours 787-8 291 32PE, 259E Jetstar Airways Melbourne-Honolulu 10 hours 787-8 335 21PE, 314E Air Canada rouge Toronto - Athens 9.5 hours 767-300ER 280 24PE, 35E+, 221E Azul Sao Paulo - Lisbon 10 hours A330-200 271 21B, 100E+, 151E Cebu Pacific Manila - Riyadh 10 hours A330-300 436 436E with 30' pitch WestJet Vancouver - London 10 hours 767-300ER 262 24PE, 238E Scoot Singapore - Jeddah 9 hours 787-8 375 35B, 45E+, 295E AirAsia X Kuala Lumpur - Jeddah 9.5 hours A330-300 377 12B, 365E Scoot will operate to Athens in 2017 Talks circulating that JetStar may also operate flights to Europe
Aer Lingus s changing Business model
Short Haul Route Structure March 2004 Summer 2016
Short Haul is Low Cost European Route structure 2002 European Route structure 2016 Source: SRS Analyser
Aer Lingus Global Network Summer network 2016
Weekly Flights between the US and Ireland for July 2000-2016 2000 2004 2008 2010 Aer Lingus 53 47 61 41 2013 48 2016 81 Delta 14 7 28 21 24 21 Continental/United 14 14 21 25 26 42 US Airways 14 12 7 21 Merged with AA American Airlines 7 7 14 35 Others 6 0 0 0 0 2 Total 87 82 129 101 133 181 Source: OAG
Aer Lingus Transfer Traffic data for 2015 Sourced: PaxIS Aer Lingus carried 1.1 million pax from N. America to/from Ireland in 2015.. $ 663m 333,000 of those passengers transferred at Dublin to other points in Europe and to N. America worth $255 million Of those 333,000 passengers who transferred on Aer Lingus 125,000 transferred at Dublin for other points in the UK worth $100 million 39,000 transferred at Dublin for other points in France worth $29 million 38,000 transferred at Dublin for other points in Italy worth $28 million 34,000 transferred at Dublin for other points in Germany worth $24 million Dublin airport advantages: US Pre-clearance Immigration and new Terminal
Conclusion Global Airline traffic will continue to grow by around 5% per year for decades to come A large part of this growth will come form Asia and from Emerging Markets A whopping 33,000 new aircraft will be delivered over the next 20 years worth around US$5 trillion Huge opportunity for Irish Leasing The profit margins for the industry overall remains low Ancillary Revenue will continue to gain a lot of traction The US carriers are generating the world s highest profits significantly helped by Protectionism Relatively new entrant Gulf Carriers with high-end in-flight products are changing the flows of International traffic. Meanwhile Turkish Airlines are growing exponentially Long Haul Low Cost carriers are just now beginning to make an impact
Thank you all very much
Short Haul Route Structure March 2004 Summer 2016
Short Haul is Low Cost European Route structure 2002 European Route structure 2016 Source: SRS Analyser
Aer Lingus Global Network Summer network 2016
Weekly Flights between the US and Ireland for July 2000-2016 2000 2004 2008 2010 Aer Lingus 53 47 61 41 2013 48 2016 81 Delta 14 7 28 21 24 21 Continental/United 14 14 21 25 26 42 US Airways 14 12 7 21 Merged with AA American Airlines 7 7 14 35 Others 6 0 0 0 0 2 Total 87 82 129 101 133 181 Source: OAG
Aer Lingus Transfer Traffic data for 2015 Sourced: PaxIS Aer Lingus carried 1.1 million pax from N. America to/from Ireland in 2015.. $ 663m 333,000 of those passengers transferred at Dublin to other points in Europe and to N. America worth $255 million Of those 333,000 passengers who transferred on Aer Lingus 125,000 transferred at Dublin for other points in the UK worth $100 million 39,000 transferred at Dublin for other points in France worth $29 million 38,000 transferred at Dublin for other points in Italy worth $28 million 34,000 transferred at Dublin for other points in Germany worth $24 million Dublin airport advantages: US Pre-clearance Immigration and new Terminal
Passengers Transferring Number of passengers transferring at Dublin on Aer Lingus and Stobart Air to the USA from selected UK airports 30,000 27,000 24,000 21,000 18,000 15,000 + + & 12,000 &' ) 9,000 "' + ) 6,000 + + )& 3,000 ) ' 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 & Edinburgh London Heathrow ' Glasgow Manchester + London Gatwick ) Source: MIDT data