Puget Sound Trends Executive Board January 24, 2019
Overview Topics covered in today s presentation: How many jobs are there? Housing Trends Where do people work? How long does it take to get to work? How do people get to work?
Employment & Sea-Tac Airport Trends
Regional Employment Continues to Increase In June of 2018 there were 2,100,100 in the region, an increase of over 277,770 jobs (a 15.2% change) since 2014. King County has added over 198,730 jobs (71.5% of the regional increase). Kitsap County has added over 10,260 jobs (3.7% of the regional increase). Pierce County has added over 41,740 jobs (15% of the regional increase). Snohomish County has added over 27,040 jobs (9.7% of the regional increase). Data Source: https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/data_views/data_views.htm#tab=tables
Region Job Growth has Remained Strong in 2018 In September of 2018 there were 2.16 million jobs in the region (62% of the statewide job total). Year over year job growth remained strong in the fall of 2018. Central Puget Sound region accounted for over 63% of the job growth in the past year. 24,700 55,900 25,200 59,700 41,000 62,600 25,100 43,600 35,800 63,000 2013 to 2014 2014 to 2015 2015 to 2016 2016 to 2017 2017 to 2018 Region Rest of State Data Source: https://fortress.wa.gov/esd/employmentdata/docs/economic-reports/wa-historical-employment-seasonally-adjusted.xlsx"
Wages are Increasing But at Different Rates Between June of 2014 and June of 2018, wages have been growing at different rates across the four counties. Average weekly wages in King County changed from $1,240 to $1,600 (a 29.4% change). Average weekly wages in Kitsap County changed from $850 to $1,020 (a 20.1% change). Average weekly wages in Pierce County changed from $860 to $980 (a 13.2% change). Average weekly wages in Snohomish County changed from $1,020 to $1,150 (a 12.9% change). Data Source: https://data.bls.gov/cew/apps/data_views/data_views.htm#tab=tables
Airport Trends Mirror a Strong Economy Travel at Sea-Tac airport continues to increase year over year and continually hits new record levels. Passenger volumes have increased over 6% in the first eleven months of 2018. Since 2014, passenger volumes through November are up more than 11 million passengers (~ 34%). Passenger Volumes Through November 45.9M 42.0M 43.2M 38.8M 34.3M 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data Source: Port of Seattle Airport Statistics, Passenger, Cargo and Operations Monthly Summary
Air Cargo Volumes Continue to Climb Air cargo at Sea-Tac airport has increased every year since 2014. Cargo volumes have increased over 2.4% in the first eleven months of 2018. Since 2014, cargo volumes through November are up more than 100k metric tons (~ 34%). Air Cargo Volumes Through November (metric tons) 296k 303k 329k 387k 396k 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data Source: Port of Seattle Airport Statistics, Passenger, Cargo and Operations Monthly Summary
Sea-Tac Passenger Growth Has Led the Nation Between 2010 and 2017, Sea-Tac Airport passenger volumes have grown faster than any other large airport in the country Passenger volumes have grown by more than 47% since 2010 Passenger Volume Growth: 2010 to 2017 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PHL IAD IAH DTW HNL PHX ATL SLC TPA DFW DEN CLT MSP BWI ORD MIA LGA LAS MCO MDW JFK EWR DCA SAN BOS SFO LAX PDX FLL SEA -10% Data Source: https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/passenger/
Housing Trends
Median Sales Prices are Stabilizing In December 2018, the Median Sales price in the Seattle Metro Area was $538,000 The median sales price in December 2017 was $530,000 Median Sales Price: 2012 to 2018 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $0 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Data Source: https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center
Rents are Stabilizing In November 2018, the average rent in the Seattle Metro Area was $2250 per month November 2017 rents averaged $2195 per month Average Monthly Rent: 2012 to 2018 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Data Source: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
Home sales have been declining in 2018 In November 2018, approximately 4900 homes were sold In November 2017, almost 6200 homes were sold Monthly Home Sales: 2012 to 2018 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Data Source: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
Single Family homes are the largest share of home sales In November 2018, approximately 75% of all home sales were single family units In November 2017, almost 73% of homes sold were single family residences Monthly Home Sales by Type: 2010 to 2018 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Single Family Townhomes Condominiums Data Source: https://www.redfin.com/blog/data-center
Where Do People Work?
Where People with a Job in King County Live Jurisdiction Workers Share King 802,960 68.5% Snohomish 145,080 12.4% Pierce 108,610 9.3% Kitsap 22,270 1.9% Thurston 12,900 1.1% Seattle 286,870 24.5% Bellevue 55,210 4.7% Kent 43,230 3.7% Renton 39,560 3.4% Kirkland 35,250 3.0% Federal Way 27,720 2.4% Redmond 26,410 2.3% Tacoma 26,360 2.2% Sammamish 23,850 2.0% Auburn 22,860 1.9% Data Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
Where People with a Job in Kitsap County Live Jurisdiction Workers Share Kitsap 40,340 65.9% King 5,410 8.8% Pierce 4,630 7.6% Snohomish 2,270 3.7% Mason 1,790 2.9% Bremerton 6,070 9.9% Bainbridge Island 3,000 4.9% Seattle 1,960 3.2% Poulsbo 1,920 3.1% Port Orchard 1,900 3.1% Tacoma 870 1.4% Everett 310 0.5% Lakewood 290 0.5% Renton 270 0.4% Port Angeles 270 0.4% Data Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
Where People with a Job in Pierce County Live Jurisdiction Workers Share Pierce 167,120 65.2% King 40,700 15.9% Thurston 13,560 5.3% Snohomish 7,160 2.8% Kitsap 6,800 2.7% Tacoma 46,180 18.0% Lakewood 11,620 4.5% Puyallup 9,210 3.6% University Place 7,690 3.0% Federal Way 6,640 2.6% Seattle 5,740 2.2% Auburn 4,800 1.9% Kent 4,060 1.6% Bonney Lake 3,350 1.3% Lacey 2,090 0.8% Data Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
Where People with a Job in Snohomish County Live Jurisdiction Workers Share Snohomish 158,460 62.7% King 52,070 20.6% Pierce 10,540 4.2% Skagit 6,100 2.4% Island 5,140 2.0% Everett 25,970 10.3% Marysville 17,560 6.9% Seattle 14,650 5.8% Lake Stevens 8,060 3.2% Lynnwood 6,060 2.4% Edmonds 6,020 2.4% Arlington 5,180 2.1% Mukilteo 5,100 2.0% Bothell 4,140 1.6% Shoreline 4,010 1.6% Data Source: https://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
How Long Does it Take to Get to Work?
Commute Times Have Increased for Everyone Since 2010, a larger share of people commute more than 60 minutes (one-way). Pierce County residents have the largest share of commutes over 60 minutes each way. There is a lower share of people who spend 10 minutes or less getting to work each way. Share of commuters, travel time greater than 1 hour 14% 16% 13% 15% 10% 9% 10% 7% King Kitsap Pierce Snohomish 2010 2017 Share of commuters, travel time less than 10 minutes 10% 7% 12% 11% 9% 9% 10% 8% King Kitsap Pierce Snohomish 2010 2017 Data Source: American Community Survey 2017 1yr Data: Data Table B08303
Rise of the Super-Commuter Since 2010, the population of super commuters (> 90 minutes one-way) in the region has increased by 75%. The share of super commuters in the central Puget Sound region is 3.5% of the total commuting population. The region now ranks 3 rd out of the top 25 metropolitan areas in the nation in terms of the increase in super commuters. 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% San Francisco San Antonio Seattle Miami Portland New York Washington D.C. Chicago 0M 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M Data Source: American Community Survey 2017 1yr Data: Data Table B08303
How Do People Get to Work?
Commute Modes Differ by County In 2017 King County had the lowest share on drive alone work trips in the region: More than 1/3 of all work trips in King County are not driven alone. Pierce County has the largest share of drive alone work trips in the region. Over 9% of work trips in Kitsap County were made via transit (includes ferry). Work Mode Share by County 1% 4% 1% 1% 2% 2% 7% 6% 4% 6% 15% 9% 10% 12% 9% 11% 83% 79% 71% 66% King Kitsap Pierce Snohomish Drove Alone Shared Ride Transit Walk & Bike Other Data Source: American Community Survey 2017 1yr Data: Data Table B08301
Region Drive Alone Share is the 5 th Lowest in the Nation In 2017, about 67% of work trips in the region were drive alone trips The four regions with a lower share all have legacy transit systems Peer regions like Portland, Denver, San Diego and Minneapolis all have SOV shares over 70%. Share of Drive Alone to Work Trips 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 66% 67% 67% 70% 70% 73% 75% 75% 76% 76% 76% 77% 78% 78% 79% 79% 79% 80% 80% 80% 81% 83% 84% 57% 50% New York San Francisco Washington, D.C. Boston central Puget Sound Chicago Portland Philadelphia Denver Los Angeles Phoenix San Diego Baltimore Atlanta Minneapolis Miami Riverside Tampa Orlando San Antonio Houston Charlotte Dallas St. Louis Detroit Data Source: American Community Survey 2017 1yr Data: Data Table B08301
Transit Boardings Continue to Climb Through November of 2018, almost 203 million boardings have occurred on the region s transit system. Boardings on all fixed route transit modes have increased in 2018. Vanpools ridership is the only transit mode that has decreased in 2018. Ferry ridership has increased every year since 2012. Transit Boardings through November 250M 200M 168M 150M 100M 50M 200M 203M Boardings, up 21% since 2010 0M 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data Source: National Transit Database November 2018 Monthly Report
Light Rail Continues to Increase in Transit Share Through November of 2018, over 25 million boardings have occurred on the region s light rail transit system. Light rail now accounts for over 12% of all transit boardings (was 6% in 2014). Bus boardings continue to increase (regionally increased every year since 2010) and carry almost ¾ of every transit boardings. Share of Transit Boardings by Mode, 2014 & 2018 2% 12% 6% 11% 12% 2% 80% 74% Bus Commuter Rail Light Rail & Monorail Ferry Data Source: National Transit Database November 2018 Monthly Report
Region Leads the Nation in Boardings Growth Again In 2018, the region is 1 of 4 metro regions in the nation that have had an increase in transit boardings. The second largest growth was the Bay Area and was about half the change of the central Puget Sound region. Peer regions like Portland, Denver, San Diego, and Minneapolis all experienced decreases in transit boardings this past year. Change in Annual Boardings New York Boston Los Angeles Chicago Philadelphia Atlanta Miami Washington DC Baltimore Dallas Phoenix St. Louis Tampa Minneapolis Charlotte San Diego Denver Orlando Portland Riverside Detroit -17M -16M -13M -8M -7M -6M -5M -4M -4M -2M -1M -1M -1M -1M -1M -1M -1M 0M 0M -42M -82M Houston San Antonio San Francisco central Puget Sound 1M 1M 1M 2M Data Source: National Transit Database November 2018 Monthly Report
Questions? Craig Helmann, Director of Data 206-389-2889 chelmann@psrc.org Thank you.