WÄRTSILÄ Dan Johnson
California and the West as a whole Expectations for 2020 in WECC? WA: 15% x 2020* OR: 25%x 2025* (large utilities) CA: 33% x 2020 NV: 25% x 2025* Renewable Portfolio Standard Policies www.dsireusa.org / March 2015 UT: 20% x 2025* AZ: 15% x 2025* MT: 15% x 2015 CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) * NM: 20%x 2020 (IOUs) ND: 10% x 2015 SD: 10% x 2015 KS: 20% x 2020 OK: 15% x 2015 MN:26.5% x 2025 (IOUs) 31.5% x 2020 (Xcel) IA: 105 MW MO:15% x 2021 WI: 10% 2015 IL: 25% x 2026 MI: 10% x 2015* IN: OH: 12.5% 10% x x 2026 2025 NY: 29% x 2015 VA: 15% x 2025 DC NC: 12.5% x 2021 (IOUs) SC: 2% 2021 ME: 40% x 2017 NH: 24.8 x 2025 VT: 20% x 2017 MA: 15% x 2020(new resources) 6.03% x 2016 (existing resources) RI: 14.5% x 2019 CT: 27% x 2020 NJ: 20.38% RE x 2020 + 4.1% solar by 2027 PA: 18% x 2021 DE: 25% x 2026 MD: 20% x 2022 DC: 20% x 2020 TX: 5,880 MW x 2015* 2 Wärtsilä HI: 40% x 2030 Renewable portfolio standard Renewable portfolio goal U.S. Territories NMI: 20% x 2016 Guam: 25% x 2035 PR: 20% x 2035 USVI: 30% x 2025 29 States + Washington DC + 2 territories have a Renewable Portfolio Standard (8 states and 2 territories have renewable portfolio goals)
WECC System with 13% Energy from Wind/Solar * GTCC deep turndown, cycling Coal cycling 3 Wärtsilä
What happens in WECC dependent on CA 4 Wärtsilä
CAISO has impact @ 23% MWh from Wind/Solar 23% of CAISO energy from Renewables in 2013 8 GW ramp from 23% renewables This chart shows overgeneration risk in 2020, but already started in 2014! Several hours with up to 1100 MW wind/solar curtailed 5 Wärtsilä
Infamous Duck Chart CA Flexible Capacity Markets Indexed to 3 hour Net Load Ramp https://www.caiso.com/documents/flexibleresourceshelprenewables_fastfacts.pdf 2014 when CA was @ 23% renewable GWh But CAISO knows they could see very large net load ramps at shorter time scales! 2 GW in 15 min! Fig ES-7 from http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/55588.pdf 6 Wärtsilä
Modeling CAISO system (Using LTPP WECC Model) Future challenges CPUC announced (2012 LTPP**) to invest 5.6 GW in new GTCC and GT capacity Future scenarios Base scenario: 5.6 GW of GTCC & GT Flexible scenario: 5.6 GW of Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs) System modeling focus * Modeling Operations Study by Wärtsilä and Energy Exemplar Energy & AS Co-optimized Results isolated for CAISO Results for CAISO 7 Wärtsilä
Setup of CAISO System Analysis CAISO (2012) wind & solar (33% RPS) Retirements New GT, GTCC 10 Year Horizon CAISO 2022 5.6 GW new GTs, GTCCs CAISO 2022 5.6 GW of Wärtsilä capacity instead of GTs/GTCCs Of the two future systems, which has - Lowest annual Operations Cost (OPEX)? - Lowest annual CO 2 generation? 8 Wärtsilä
Why explore ICE options as alternatives to GTs? ICEs are more Flexible, and More Efficient 10% less fuel (per MWh) than the most advanced Aero GT 2 5 minute start times 5 minute minimum down time No defined minimum up time Start multiple times per day, no maintenance impact or added cost Minimum load 30-40% (soon to be 10%) Ramp rates (MSL to full load) 40s or less Modular buildout 40 to 500 MW+ (10 or 20 MW increments) Capex ($/kw) less than or equal to Aero GTs 9 Wärtsilä
What does this Flexibility do at the System Level? Energy + AS Base Flex Savings Gross savings at marginal cost (BUSD/a) 1, 2) $9.46 $8.89 6.0% In CAISO System, in 2022 if @ 6% of capacity were flexible gas engines instead of gas turbines. 6.0% decrease in annual ratepayer costs Existing Combined Cycle starts ($) reduced by 20% Existing Combined Cycle capacity factor increases (from 50% to 53%) System Efficiency increases, CO 2 generation reduced 1.1% 1) All shortfalls @ $15k/MWh, acc to http://www.naruc.org/grants/documents/economics%20of%20resource%20adequacy%20whitepaper_astrape_final.pdf 2) LFUp @ $50k/MWh acc to http://ethree.com/documents/e3_reflex_caiso_2013-12-31_final.pdf and other acc to 1) 10 Wärtsilä
Results: Wärtsilä Flexibility Optimizes the Fleet 22 GW Fleet of GTCCs with 5.6 GW of new GTs/GTCCs (Base Case) 22 GW Fleet of GTCCs with 5.6 GW of new Wärtsilä (Flex Case) Wärtsilä as Smart Power Generation - Individual Units cycle w/o added cost - Part Load Efficiency ~ Full Load - Take over ancillary service provision (ramping, load following, regulation) - Portfolio Optimization: influences dispatch of entire fleet of assets to minimize operational cost! 11 Wärtsilä
Long Term Planning (Utility Scale) - Installed capacity of ~ 30 GW - Significant build out of renewables (~ 30% of energy, ~ 50% of capacity) - Reliance on gas-fired thermal - Retirement of 6GW steam boiler plants in next 10 years - Transmission capacity of 9 GW - Demand response of 1.8 GW - Capacity reserve margin 15% 12 Wärtsilä
This Utility will see Large Net Load Ramps 7 GW net load ramp In 1 hour! Dispatchable (Thermal) generation Source: 2012 LTPP WECC Model data (for year 2022) What if you do capacity expansion plan with 2 options? - The usual lineup of new built options, GTs & GTCCs - Flex alternative- same lineup of GTs & GTCCs, plus Wärtsilä 13 Wärtsilä
Simply adding Wärtsilä capacity as another new-build option - 870 MUSD NPV savings over 10 years (Capex + Opex) - 10% less capacity needed to meet obligations Key Metrics Reduce Optimize Optimize Fuel Diversity Operational Expenditure s Capital Expenditure s Fuel Burn Sensitivities Fuel Prices CO 2 costs Portfolios Reduce 1.5% Water Use CO 2 Emissions Externalities Hydro / Weather Chrono, Gas- Turbine- Centric Chrono w/ Flexible ICE Capacity Wärtsilä Optimizes Outcomes from Long Term Capacity Planning 14 Wärtsilä
Summary Flexibility Needed Value of Flexibility (Wärtsilä ICEs) How to Get Flexibility - Renewables - Retirements - Wärtsilä = best gas-fired option Significant ratepayer savings (system scale) Optimization of Resource Planning (Utility Scale) Include ICEs in resource/system plans Use state of the art capacity expansion models Market Evolution (From 1-3 hour products to real time (5 minute)! 15 Wärtsilä
Thank You Dan Johnson Business Development Manager Wartsila North America, Inc. Please visit www.smartpowergeneration.com White Papers available at www.energyexemplar.com under Commercial Publications -> White Papers tab, - Incorporating Flexibility in Utility Resource Planning - Power System Optimization by Increased Flexibility