Cumulative Investments by Sector Cumulative Investment by Country Industry, Commerce & Agribusiness 18% Transport 30% Natural Resources 2% SERBIA 45% KOSOVO 2% MONTENEGRO 6% Financial Institutions 30% Municipal, Environment, Infrastructure 6% Power and Energy 14% BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA 20% ALBANIA 10% FYR MACEDONIA 17% 2016
45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 EU Western Europe [Luxembourg] Austria Netherlands Sweden Germany Ireland Denmark Belgium UK France Finland EU Southern Europe Italy Spain Malta Cyprus Greece Portugal EU Eastern Europe Slovenia Czech Rep Slovak Rep Estonia Lithuania Poland Hungary Latvia Croatia Bulgaria Romania Western Balkans Montenegro Serbia FYR Mac Albania B&H Kosovo Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2015 29 April, 2016 3
Basic requirements Efficiency enhancers Innovation and sophistication factors WB EU-11 EU EU-15 1st pillar: Institutions 91 72 47 30 2nd pillar: Infrastructure 83 52 33 18 3rd pillar: Macroeconomic environment 93 47 59 66 4th pillar: Health and primary education 54 45 30 20 5th pillar: Higher education and training 63 40 30 20 6th pillar: Goods market efficiency 84 53 39 29 7th pillar: Labor market efficiency 101 68 54 45 8th pillar: Financial market development 89 56 53 48 9th pillar: Technological readiness 67 37 26 16 10th pillar: Market size 103 66 54 37 11th pillar: Business sophistication 105 63 39 19 12th pillar: Innovation 95 58 37 20 Global Competitiveness Index 86 50 36 23 Source: World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Index Historical Database 29 April, 2016 5
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Country rank in 2015 23 Difference between the scores in 2007 and 2015 36 EU-15 EU EU-11 WB Source: World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Index Note: GCR s scale is from 1 to 7 50 86 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0-0.1-0.2 1.3 Difference between the scores in 2000 and 2015 Country score in 2015 1.0 0.7 0.0 EU-15 EU EU-11 WB Source: World Bank: The Worldwide Governance Indicators Note: Scale is from -2,5 to 2,5. 29 April, 2016 6
Country EU approximation stage Albania Candidate country (2014) Bosnia and Herzegovina Kosovo Potential candidate application submitted (15 Feb 2016) Potential candidate Macedonia, FYR Candidate country (2005) Montenegro Serbia Candidate country (2010) opened 22 negotiation chapters Candidate country (2012) opened 2 negotiation chapters 29 April, 2016 8
Exchange rate regime Inflation Growth rates 2003-2008 2009-2014 2003-2008 2009-2014 Albania Managed floating 2.7 2.5 6.0 2.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina Currency board 3.2 1.1 5.3 0.2 Kosovo EUR 2.0 2.2 4.7 3.4 Macedonia, FYR Fixed peg 2.2 1.8 4.8 1.9 Montenegro EUR 4.8 2.1 6.2 0.3 Serbia Managed floating 9.8 7.1 5.9-0.2 Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook, October 2015 29 April, 2016 9
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3 3 4 3 3 3 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 7 3 6 5 11 5 7 4 5 5 6 12 7 14 8 11 7 14 10 10 9 23 22 18 19 14 16 13 21 14 20 18 25 14 Others Information & Communication Professional, Sci. & Admin. Services Financial & Insurance Activities Construction Real Estate Activities Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing Public Adm., Defense & Social Security 18 23 21 21 27 18 Industry Trade, Transport & Food Services Source: National Statistical Offices Albania BIH Kosovo FYRoM Montenegro Serbia Note: The following relationship applies: Gross value added (GVA) + taxes on products - subsidies on products = GDP 29 April, 2016 11
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Western Balkans, average total tax burden ALB BIH KOS MKD MNE SRB EU-11 EU EU15 Profit tax Labor tax and contributions Other taxes 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 48 44 37 32 KOS ALB WB SRB BIH MKD EU-11 MNE EU EU-15 Source: World Bank: Doing Business database Source: National statistical offices and Eurostat Note: In case of Albania and Kosovo, average net wage instead of gross wage is used 29 April, 2016 12
20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 5,986 14,271 18,212 TR, 2.9 UK, 3.0 Others, 10.7 CA, 2.2 HU, 2.7 Croatia, 3.4 Norway, 3.7 Austria, 14.6 Netherlands, 9.8 Greece, 7.5 4,000 2,602 Serbia, 4.2 2,000 0 LU, 4.6 CH, 5.3 Russia, SI, 5.6 6.6 Germany, 6.4 Italy, 7.0 Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook, December 2015 Source: National central banks 29 April, 2016 14
160 140 120 137 90 80 70 High-skill and technology-intensive manufactures Medium-skill and technology-intensive manufactures Labour- and resource- intensive, low-skill and technology-intensive 100 94 60 19 80 60 40 20 50 40 30 20 10 10 16 31 28 21 0 EU-11 MKD MNE SER WB BIH ALB KOS 0 MNE ALB WB BIH SRB EU-11 MKD Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook Note: Trade openness is calculated as exports plus imports divided by GDP. Source: UNCTAD: International trade database 29 April, 2016 15
7.0 Country score in 2015 6.0 20 Country rank in 2015 5.0 40 4.0 3.0 2.0 65 83 89 92 104 118 136 1.0 EU-15 EU EU-11 ALB MKD MNE WB SRB BIH Source: World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Index Historical Database Note: GCR s scale is from 1 to 7 29 April, 2016 16
MW 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 ALB BIH KOS FYRoM MNE SRB Coal-fired Gas and oil-fired Hydro Other renewables Source: South-Eastern Europe Energy Community 29 April, 2016 17
30 30 25 25 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 EBRD Western Balkans EU-11 0 EBRD EU-11 Western Balkans Product Process Product and process Marketing Organisational Organisational and marketing Source: EBRD-World Bank: BEEPS V and MENA ES, 2013 29 April, 2016 18
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