Houston Economic Update Presented by Patrick Jankowski Vice President, Research Greater Houston Partnership
Houston Astros - Percent Regular Season Games Won
Help from the bullpen this year
Help from the bullpen this year
Two ways to look at the season 2013 AMERICA LEAGUE WEST Spring Training Records Won Loss Seattle 19 10 Texas 15 14 Oakland 13 12 Houston 13 14 LA Angeles 8 17 Source: Major League Baseball
This fan has it right
And now the economy
Maybe you saw the fireworks?
Houston - The fastest growing major metro economy 20 Most Populous Metros 2011 Gross Domestic Product $ Billions % Change Real GDP Nominal Constant* 10 - '11 Houston, TX 419.7 365.6 3.7 Detroit, MI 199.4 175.7 3.5 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 391.3 351.0 3.1 Seattle, WA 239.7 213.4 2.9 San Francisco, CA 347.1 303.4 2.6 Boston, MA 325.6 291.0 2.4 San Diego, CA 172.6 152.9 2.3 Atlanta, GA 283.3 249.5 2.2 Minneapolis, MN 207.8 182.0 1.9 Phoenix, AZ 194.8 173.0 1.8 Los Angeles, CA 747.3 663.1 1.7 Tampa, FL 116.2 102.4 1.6 Chicago, IL 547.6 476.5 1.4 St. Louis, MO 132.0 114.1 1.2 Washington, DC 433.1 380.7 1.1 Baltimore, MD 148.3 129.7 1.1 Philadelphia, PA 353.3 308.377 1.0 New York, NY 1,277.2 1,123.460 0.8 Miami, FL 263.4 231.361 0.6 Riverside, CA 111.5 96.675 0.4 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Houston has a long history of economic growth.
GRP The Long Term Outlook Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 2010-2040 ($ Billions*) $854.8 $962.2 $747.4 $643.1 $544.7 $452.8 $356.5 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 * '05 Constant Dollars Source: The Perryman Group, Spring/Summer 2012
Population
We have a new name Old name Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA New Name Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA
And Houston s geography has changed Houston Area Profile 10 Counties 125+ Cities and towns Most Populous Harris County City of Houston
And Houston s geography has changed Houston Area Profile 9 Counties 125+ Cities and towns Most Populous Harris County City of Houston
Houston s population grew faster than any other major metro area Rank Metro Areas Population as of 7/1/12 Change Since 7/1/11 1 New York 19,831,858 101,928 0.5% 2 Los Angeles 13,052,921 107,781 0.8% 3 Chicago 9,522,434 26,715 0.3% 4 Dallas-Fort Worth 6,700,991 131,879 2.0% 5 Houston 6,177,035 125,185 2.1% 6 Philadelphia 6,018,800 21,326 0.4% 7 Washington 5,860,342 89,129 1.5% 8 Miami 5,762,717 74,809 1.3% 9 Atlanta 5,457,831 83,153 1.5% 10 Boston 4,640,802 37,458 0.8% 11 San Francisco 4,455,560 58,642 1.3% 12 Riverside 4,350,096 48,255 1.1% 13 Phoenix 4,329,534 77,456 1.8% 14 Detroit 4,292,060 4,094 0.1% 15 Seattle 3,552,157 54,338 1.6% 16 Minneapolis 3,422,264 33,215 1.0% 17 San Diego 3,177,063 38,880 1.2% 18 Tampa 2,842,878 16,440 0.6% 19 St. Louis 2,795,794 2,419 0.1% 20 Baltimore 2,753,149 19,471 0.7% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
But Houston s population wasn t the fastest growing in the state U.S. Rank Metro Areas Population as of 7/1/12 Change Since 7/1/11 4 Dallas-Fort Worth 6,569,112 131,879 2.0% 5 Houston 6,051,850 125,185 2.1% 25 San Antonio 2,191,670 42,333 1.9% 35 Austin 1,780,708 53,595 3.0% 67 El Paso 821,408 9,327 1.1% 70 McAllen 794,181 12,371 1.6% 115 Corpus Christi 430,961 6,148 1.4% 124 Killeen 412,390 7,985 1.9% 126 Brownsville 412,577 2,980 0.7% 129 Beaumont-Port Arthur 405,031-851 -0.2% 163 Lubbock 295,255 2,414 0.8% 178 Laredo 254,948 4,224 1.7% 180 Amarillo 255,781 1,797 0.7% 181 Waco 255,656 661 0.3% 190 College Station 231,462 3,039 1.3% 198 Longview 215,798 881 0.4% 201 Tyler 212,855 1,966 0.9% 244 Abilene 166,481 482 0.3% 265 Midland 144,953 6,709 4.6% 270 Wichita Falls 150,092 737 0.5% 273 Texarkana 149,610 91 0.1% 283 Odessa 139,588 4,737 3.4% 318 Sherman-Denison 121,306 629 0.5% 331 San Angelo 113,348 1,506 1.3% 359 Victoria 94,675 1,945 2.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Montgomery and Fort Bend grew faster, but Harris added more people ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION AS OF JULY 1, 2012 Houston - The Woodlands - Sugar Land Metro Area County 12 Population* Change Since 11 # % Austin 28,618-16 -0.1% Brazoria 324,769 5,542 1.7% Chambers 36,196 719 2.0% Fort Bend 627,293 19,341 3.2% Galveston 300,484 5,291 1.8% Harris 4,253,700 80,005 1.9% Liberty 76,571 626 0.8% Montgomery 485,047 13,343 2.8% Waller 44,357 334 0.8% Totals 6,177,035 125,185 2.1% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
County shares of Houston MSA population Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
Growth is the norm for Houston.
Population - The Long Term Outlook Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 2010-2040 (Millions) 5.99 6.60 7.24 7.92 8.61 9.43 10.25 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 Source: The Perryman Group, Spring/Summer 2012
Houston vs. The Competition
Houston vs. The Competition Percent of jobs recovered through Jan 13 Houston vs. Top 10 Metros Houston Dallas Washington Boston New York Atlanta Chicago Miami Philadelphia Los Angeles 100% 215.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Houston vs. The Competition Percent of jobs recovered through Jan 13 Houston vs. Top 10 Metros Houston Dallas Washington Boston New York Atlanta Chicago Miami Philadelphia Los Angeles 62.0% 50.9% 50.1% 47.2% 40.8% 102.4% 127.2% 158.2% 150.8% 215.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 100%
Houston vs. The Competition Percent of jobs recovered through Jan 13 Houston vs. Second Tier Metros Houston Baltimore Minneapolis Seattle San Diego Tampa San Francisco Phoenix St. Louis Riverside Detroit 55.3% 51.6% 49.4% 41.5% 27.3% 26.6% 23.4% 77.3% 91.8% 123.7% 100% 215.8% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
We re in a horse race now
But we re still the fastest filly on the track
A closer look at employment
Annual Employment Change Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Forecast for 13 Net new jobs 76,000 Annual job growth rate 2.8 percent Historic Perspective Job growth above long-term average
Winners and Losers Winners Accommodations and Dining Services Administrative Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Construction Educational Services Exploration and Production Finance Government Health Care Information Manufacturing Oil Field Services Personal Services Professional Services Real Estate Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Utilities Losers
Regional Growth By Sector
Historic Perspective 12-Month Net Change in Jobs (000s) * * December to December 105.2 90.8 89.2 105.8 88.8 81.2 105.7 76.0 43.4 52.9 51.8 52.4 59.0 37.5 47.4 17.7 17.4 3.6 19.5-10.4 Long-term average: 42,600 jobs -3.2-11.4 Average without booms and busts: 50,200 jobs This year s forecast: 76,000 jobs '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '**13 ** GHP forecast Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and GHP Forecast -107.4
Click here for a copy of the forecast
Employment (Millions) Historic Perspective Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment, Houston Metro Area, '03 - '14 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 Jan '03 Jan '04 Jan '05 Jan '06 Jan '07 Jan '08 Jan '09 Jan '10 Jan '11 Jan '12 Jan '13 Jan '14 Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Employment The Long Term Outlook Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown MSA 2010-2040 (Millions) 2.66 2.99 3.30 3.58 3.85 4.11 4.32 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 '35 '40 Source: The Perryman Group, Spring/Summer 2012
Foreign Trade
Foreign Trade Houston-Galveston Customs District $ Billions (U.S.) Exports Imports
Houston s Top 25 Export Destinations
Houston s Top 25 Export Destinations Country Trade ($B) Country Trade ($B) Mexico $13.470 Argentina $2.579 Brazil $9.144 Nigeria $2.480 Netherlands $7.899 Korea, Republic Of $2.762 Venezuela $3.629 Ecuador $2.325 Chile $4.212 Turkey $3.025 Colombia $4.801 Panama $1.817 United Kingdom $3.514 Russia $1.708 Belgium $3.459 Germany $2.088 Singapore $3.614 Costa Rica $1.699 China $3.835 India $2.163 France $2.459 United Arab Emirates $1.791 Saudi Arabia $2.099 Japan $1.502 Peru $2.616 Source: WISER Trade
Outlook for Houston s Export Destinations Country Projected Economic Growth Houston s 25 Largest Trading Partners GDP GDP Direction Country Direction 12 13 12 13 Mexico 3.7 Argentina 4.0 Brazil 4.1 Nigeria 6.6 Netherlands 0.8 Korea, Republic Of 4.0 Venezuela 3.2 Ecuador 3.9 Chile 4.5 Turkey 3.2 Colombia 4.4 Panama 8.5 United Kingdom 2.0 Russia 3.9 Belgium 0.8 Germany 1.5 Singapore 3.9 Costa Rica 4.0 China 8.8 India 7.3 France 1.0 United Arab Emirates 2.9 Saudi Arabia 4.1 Japan 1.7 Peru 6.0 Source: International Monetary Fund
Outlook for Houston s Export Destinations 13 Outlook for Houston s Top Export Destinations GDP Direction # Countries 13 7 5
Oil Prices & Oil Rig Count Oil-Directed Rigs 1,600 WTI Spot, $/bbl 160 1,400 1,200 Oil Prices 140 120 1,000 100 800 80 600 60 400 200 Oil Rig Count 40 20 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Baker Hughes (rigs), U.S. Energy Information Administration (prices) 0 Jan-14
Natural Gas Prices & Gas Rig Count Gas-Directed Rigs 1,800 Henry Hub Spot, $/mcf 14.00 1,600 1,400 1,200 Gas Rig Count 12.00 10.00 1,000 8.00 800 6.00 600 400 200 Natural Gas Prices 4.00 2.00 0 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Source: Baker Hughes (rigs), U.S. Energy Information Administration (prices) 0.00 Jan-14
Energy Hiring Trends - Houston 12-Month Employment Growth Rate Month Exploration and Production Oil Field Services July 11 5.8% 13.5% Jan 12 10.6% 19.2% July 12 10.0% 18.3% Jan 13 7.7% 12.3% Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Vehicle Sales - 12-Month Total
Home Sales - 12-Month Total
Houston Purchasing Managers Index
And they play just across the street from Minute Maid Park