Initial Road Link Capacity Assessment Land East of Elsenham, Essex The Fairfield Partnership. 31 st July 2006

Transcription

1 Initial Road Link Capacity Assessment Land East of Elsenham, Essex The Fairfield Partnership 31 st July 2006

2 Addendum 26 th September 2007 This addendum to the preliminary Link Capacity Appraisal has been inserted to provide a factual update to the report to take account of changes in circumstances that have occurred since the report was written in July The initial link assessment was carried out in order to gain an understanding of the likely flows in the future along the immediate road system around Elsenham. In particular, Hall Road was examined as this route would carry the majority of vehicles from and to the new sustainable community. At the time of this appraisal, in the absence of any detailed information from the East of England Plan, Essex County Council or Uttlesford District Council on the level of housing that might be supported, residential options of 1500 units and 2650 units together with employment land uses and related services and open space to serve the new community were investigated. In addition the effect of 7000 units was also appraised purely as a sensitivity test for impact purposes only. The assessment was carried out employing two public transport scenarios, the first being to keep the bus service operation the same as the current situation (the minimum public transport scenario - MinPT ) and secondly to introduce a high frequency orbital bus route, building on the existing service, linking Elsenham, Stansted Mountfitchet, Bishop s Stortford and Stansted Airport in a loop running in both directions (the maximum public transport scenario MaxPT ). It should be noted that the impact of a possible secondary school was not included in the development scenarios at the time of undertaking the appraisal. Once the scheme progresses to the stage of a comprehensive Transport Assessment, the impact of a secondary school will be included. There are a number of factual updates required to the report since its publication in July 2006:- 1. The table at the top of page 5 erroneously applied a trip generation of 8.52 trips per household to the 2650 unit scenario compared with the intended 8.44 trips per household. The resulting predicted trips on the network were naturally higher for this scenario than would be expected when applying a rate of 8.44 trips / household. The table should be read as indicated below. Scenario Trips per HH HHs All Day Trips AM Peak PM Peak 1500 HH HH HH (Sensitivity Test) In relation to the capacity of the local road system, an ultimate capacity of 1500 vehicles per lane per hour was obtained from the DfT National Transport Model and applied generally to the local road system. More recent information has been obtained from this Model and suggests that 1393 vehicles per lane would be more appropriate for Hall Road. Similarly, the capacity for North Hall Road is revised to 1393 vehicles per lane per hour and for both Henham Road and Stansted Road, a capacity of 804 vehicles per lane per hour is suggested. Extracts from Appendix A of the original report have been reproduced as part of this addendum indicating the changes as a result of the amended trip rate in (1)

3 above and the revised capacity values. This demonstrates that the link capacity is only exceeded in the 7000 household scenario (as in the original assessment) for both minimum and maximum public transport scenarios. 3. The plan included in Figure 2 of the Link Capacity Report relates to land being considered by The Fairfield Partnership for development at the time and does not reflect land currently within its control.

4 Elsenham Link Capacity Impact 1500 HH + 22,500m 2 B1 Maximum One Directional Flows Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity (Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour) Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity % Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd % 93% 91% 91% Henham Rd % 66% 64% 64% Stansted Rd % 60% 53% 57% Hall Rd % 67% 39% 49%

5 Elsenham Link Capacity Impact 2650 HH + 40,000m 2 B1 Maximum One Directional Flows Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity (Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour) Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity % Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd % 93% 89% 90% Henham Rd % 66% 63% 63% Stansted Rd % 60% 48% 54% Hall Rd % 67% 17% 35%

6 Elsenham Link Capacity Impact 7000 HH + 80,000m 2 B1 Maximum One Directional Flows Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity (Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour) Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity % Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base + Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd % 93% 84% 85% Henham Rd % 66% 60% 60% Stansted Rd % 60% 29% 45% Hall Rd % 67% -66% -17%

7 QM Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Revision 4 Remarks Issue 1 Inc P Copsey Extended to Revised Inc DLA comments include other Rds Employment comments Date 04/05/06 20/06/06 10/07/06 18/07/06 31/07/06 Prepared by Paula Paula Paula Paula Paula Cuthbertson Cuthbertson Cuthbertson Cuthbertson Cuthbertson Signature Checked by Nigel Downes Nigel Downes Nigel Downes Nigel Downes Nigel Downes Signature Authorised by Nigel Downes Nigel Downes Nigel Downes Nigel Downes Nigel Downes Signature Project number /PT /PT /PT /PT /PT1 File reference WSP Development and Transportation 66/68 Hills Road Cambridge CB2 1LA Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Reg. No:

8 Road Link Capacity Assessment INTRODUCTION WSP Development and Transportation have been commissioned by The Fairfield Partnership (TFP) to undertake an initial transport capacity assessment for a proposed residential-led mixed use development at Elsenham, Essex. The purpose of this assessment is first to evaluate the likely impacts upon the surrounding transport infrastructure of the proposed development and to make recommendations as to what level of development could be accommodated, based on the capacity of existing transport infrastructure and public transport services. The next step is to see how much additional capacity would be created by improving the public transport services in the vicinity of the site in terms of rail and bus. This report therefore summarises the methodology applied to undertake the assessment and presents the results of link capacity tests. Two housing scenarios 1500 and 2650 dwellings have been tested with and without improvements to public transport services in the vicinity of the site. In addition, as a sensitivity test for transport assessment purposes only, the impact of 7000 residential units has also been analysed. SITE LOCATION TFP controls around 200 hectares of land located immediately north east of Elsenham village in Uttlesford, Essex, as shown in Figure 1. The land is, broadly speaking, bounded by the B1051 (Henham Rd) to the South and Mill Road to the East. The western site boundary is formed by Old Mead Road and the Cambridge to London Liverpool Street railway line, as shown in Figure 2. The village is predominantly rural in character with a population of approximately 2510 in 970 households, (according to the UK Census, 2001) of which 1676 residents were of working age (67%), with 1396 members of the community in employment (ie 83% of people aged were currently working). In 2001, the Census also recorded that there were 429 local jobs within Elsenham and 172 residents who were working from home. EXISTING PUBLIC TRANSPORT There are currently two trains per hour in a southbound direction between Cambridge and London stopping at Elsenham Station in the peak hours and one train per hour off peak, taking passengers to London Liverpool Street via Stansted Mountfitchet, Bishop s Stortford, Sawbridgeworth, Harlow, Broxbourne and Cheshunt. In the northbound direction, there are also two trains per hour from London to Cambridge at peak times and one train per hour off peak, calling at Elsenham, Newport, Audley End, Great Chesterford, Shelford, Whittlesford and Cambridge. In addition there are two trains per hour in both directions between Peterborough and Stansted Airport via Ely, Cambridge, Audley End and Newport in the peak hours, and one train per hour off peak. These services do not currently stop at Elsenham but do pass through the station. There are very few bus services operating in the vicinity of Elsenham as evidenced in Figure 3, with only 4 infrequent bus services calling at Elsenham. The most frequent service is an hourly circular service operated by Transit buses, starting from Bishop s Stortford Town Centre, Stansted Mountfitchet, Elsenham, Henham Stansted Airport, Takely and returning to Bishop s Stortford central bus station. 1

9 LOCAL ROAD NETWORK The surrounding road network in the vicinity of the site is characterised by single carriageway unclassified roads. Existing traffic levels on the adjacent highway network are currently relatively low, even during peak hours. Recent survey data has been obtained from a variety of sources including BAA Stansted publications, Essex County Council Local Highways data records and surveys undertaken by WSP. Data for Hall Road, Elsenham was obtained from a review of a Faber Maunsell report commissioned by BAA Stansted in The report, entitled Proposed Development at Stansted Airport Survey and Data Collection Report, includes 1999 and 2004 traffic data for Hall Road and Parsonage Road which form the most direct route to Stansted Airport from the proposed development site. According to this report, the 2004 existing two-way flows on Parsonage Road were 655 vehicles per hour (vph) in the AM peak and 595 vph in the PM peak. Although data for Hall Road was available, the flows on Parsonage Road have been used in the link capacity assessment as they represent the worst case scenario, with the directional split of the two-way flow based on the flows measured on Hall Road (220 southbound and 120 northbound in the AM peak which provides a proportional split of 65%:35%). Hence the worst case scenario one way directional flows on Parsonage Road, when split in these proportions can be assumed to be as follows: Hall Rd, 2004 Flows (vph) AM PM 2 directions Northbound Southbound The maximum one way directional flows from above (AM peak southbound and PM peak northbound) have therefore been used in this initial capacity assessment to provide a robust analysis. Base flows for Henham Road and Stansted Road were obtained from the Local Highways Authority (Essex County Council). Peak hour volumetric counts, as summarised below, were observed on Henham Road in May 2004 and Stansted Road in September 2004: Henham Rd, May 2004 Stansted Rd, Sept 2004 Flows (vph) AM PM AM PM 2 directions Eastbound Westbound Data for North Hall Road was unavailable from existing sources, therefore peak hour link counts were undertaken by WSP for the AM peak hour only at this stage as other data sources showed that flows in the vicinity of Elsenham are very tidal with similar volumes northbound in the AM peak and southbound in the PM peak. 2

10 These counts, observed on Tuesday 11 th July 2006 gave the following AM peak base flows for North Hall Rd, with the PM peak flows assumed to be the reverse of the AM peak hour flows for the purpose of this initial exercise: North Hall Rd, 2006 Flows (vph) AM PM 2 directions Northbound Southbound BASELINE FORECAST A baseline forecast to 2015 has been used to predict the likely growth in background traffic from the 2004/2006 base years. For 2004 base flows a growth factor of has been calculated from the National Road traffic Forecasts 1997 for rural other roads, with localised corrections taken from TEMPRO version 4.3. This growth factor, when applied to the maximum one way directional base flows detailed above, gives the following baseline flows for 2015: 2015 Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Flows (vph) AM PM AM PM AM PM 2 directions Northbound Southbound The same methodology has been used to calculate a growth factor of to apply to the base flows on North Hall Road which were observed in July The resulting baseline flows on this link shown below: 2015 North Hall Rd Flows (vph) AM PM 2 directions Northbound Southbound PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS This assessment assumes that the site will be a mixed use development comprising a balanced provision of mixed private and non-private housing, primary school(s), a local centre, recreational areas, open space and an element of B1 employment assumed to cover 10Ha once 2650 residential units are completed and assuming 40% gross floor area. 3

11 Two housing scenarios plus the sensitivity test have been analysed for the initial capacity assessment: Min Growth housing units (40% social, 60% private) + 22,500sqm B1 Mid Growth housing units (40% social, 60% private) + 40,000sqm B1 Sensitivity Test housing units (40% social, 60% private) + 80,000sqm B1. PROPOSED PUBLIC TRANSPORT STRATEGY In addition to the development scenarios above, the assessment also compares the impacts of two different public transport scenarios. Each of the development scenarios and the sensitivity test have been assessed with both of the two public transport cases in place and the resulting traffic impacts compared. The first, do-minimum public transport scenario (Min PT), assumes that the development would be put in place with no improvements to public transport services and that the same bus and train services in operation today would remain in operation in The second scenario (Max PT) assumes that train and bus services are improved. In this scenario, train services between Peterborough and Stansted Airport would additionally stop at Elsenham, providing an extra 2 trains per hour (tph) in the peak hours and 1 tph off peak. The train fare on this service has been assumed to be the same as a journey from Bishop s Stortford to Stansted Airport as the distance is similar, in order to feed into the mode split model. A new high frequency circular bus service ( Orbital Plan ) would also be put in place, taking passengers from Elsenham to Stansted Airport and Bishop s Stortford Town Centre and returning to Elsenham via Stansted Mountfitchet. A frequency of one bus every 10 minutes and a fare of 1 per journey has been assumed, again for the mode split model. In this way, a fully integrated public transport (rail and bus) system would operate in the area providing attractive alternative modes of travel to the private car. RESIDENTIAL TRIP RATES For the housing mix detailed above, an all day, all modes, all purpose trip rate is calculated using Journey to Work (JTW) data from the 2001 Census, factored up using information about trip rates for other journey purposes from the National Travel Survey of Great Britain (NTS, 2001). This gives an overall two way JTW trip rate (1.6 trips per household per day) and based on the assumption that on average, journey to work trips account for 19% of the all day trips made by a typical household (according to NTS, 2001), the resulting all day trip rate is assumed to be 8.44 trips per household per day for all modes and all journey purposes. RESIDENTIAL PEAK HOUR TRIP GENERATION The all day, all modes, all purpose trip rate per household is multiplied by the total number of households planned for the site to give the total daily trips generated by the residential component of the development for all transport modes. The AM and PM peak hour residential trips are then isolated using an all day trip generation profile from NTS (National Travel Survey) which shows that the AM peak (8am-9am) is equivalent to 10% of the all day total and the PM peak (5pm-6pm) is approximately 9% of all day. Therefore the residential component of the three development scenarios is expected to generate the following AM and PM peak hour trip totals: 4

12 Scenario Trips per HH HHs All Day Trips AM Peak PM Peak 1500 HH HH HH (Sensitivity Test) EMPLOYMENT TRIP GENERATION The development scenarios detailed above also include a component of employment to be provided on site. This has been assumed to comprise employment at the proposed primary school(s) and B1 development with an employee density of 1 member of staff per 18sq m GFA. Based on a study of similar B1 sites within the TRICS 2006a database, 48% of employees working at the B1 development are assumed to travel in the AM peak hour and 45% of employees are assumed to travel in the PM peak hour. This gives the following trip generation for the on site B1 employment: B1 Floorspace Employees AM Peak Person Trips PM Peak Person Trips 22,500sq m ,000sq m ,000sq m In each of the development scenarios, the primary school(s) at the development have been assumed to provide sufficient capacity for 100% of primary school age children living on site. A ratio of 0.11 staff per pupil has been calculated from data held within the TRICS 2006a database for a selection of similar primary schools. This ratio has then been applied to determine the employment generated by the on site primary school(s) as shown below: Housing Primary School Children Primary School Staff AM Peak Staff Trips PM Peak Staff Trips 1500 HH HH HH The study of TRICS data also indicated that on average, 85% of school staff arrived at work in the AM peak hour and 19% departed from the school during the PM peak hour. These percentages were applied to the school employees working on site and the resulting peak hour trips generated are shown above. INTERNALISATION OF TRIPS For the purposes of this assessment, a certain level of internalisation of trips has been assumed since the development will include employment, primary school(s) and a local centre on site. Therefore, some of the people living on site will make trips to these land uses on site instead of travelling to external destinations. 5

13 These internal trips have subsequently been deducted from the total peak hour trip generation prior to calculating the distribution of external trips below to prevent double counting. The aspiration of a sustainable development is to maximise the number of these internal person trips undertaken by non-car modes. The internalisation levels used here have been based on other studies recently undertaken by WSP. This reduces the total external trip generation by 30% in the AM peak and 21% in the PM peak. However, at this stage, the impact of a possible secondary school has not been included in the development scenarios. The Internalisation levels used by trip purpose are shown in the following table: Journey Purpose AM PM Journey to Work 10% 10% Primary Education 100% 100% Personal Business 22% 22% Retail 44% 56% Other 60% 47% The majority of these internal person trips are likely to be undertaken by walking and cycling modes. The resulting internal and external components of the peak hour trip generation are shown below. In terms of AM and PM peak hour person trip totals for each of the development scenarios (including both residential trips and employment trips generated by the development as detailed above): Min Growth 1500 HH + 22,500m 2 B1 Mid Growth 2650 HH + 40,000m 2 B1 Sensitivity Test 7000 HH + 80,000m 2 B1 AM PM AM PM AM PM Total Trips Generated (residential + employment) Internal Trips to Subtract External Trips to Distribute EXTERNAL TRIP DISTRIBUTION The external peak hour trips generated by the proposed development (ie with internal trips deducted) have been distributed based on the 2001 census journey to work origindestination matrix for journeys originating in Elsenham. The initial 2004 base year distribution pattern has been assumed to be consistent with the patterns evident in the 2001 census. The trip destinations at ward level have been aggregated into 30 zones covering the whole of the UK for the purposes of this study. 6

14 However, since the future design year has been taken as 2015, the existing distribution pattern has been rebalanced for the forecast year to take into account the likely creation of jobs in the vicinity of Stansted Airport and nearby towns. The proximity to these new jobs would be a likely major attractor of the proposed development. The percentage of trips distributed to local zones (1-4) has been diluted as it is unrealistic to expect a significant increase in jobs within the village of Elsenham, external to the proposed development. Despite this, an increase in the absolute number of local jobs will still be required to support the revised distribution. Similarly, for other zones expected to have a low growth in jobs, the percentage distribution has also been reduced in comparison with the existing distribution, to reflect that these destinations will be less dominant amongst the new residents at the development. The base year and forecast year distributions are shown below by zone (percentages shown in bold have been fixed and others rebalanced to maintain a total of 100%): Zone ID Existing Distribution To / From Elsenham Predicted Future ExternalTrip Distribution to Apply to Proposed Development Rebalanced from Existing Zone Name 1 Elsenham North East 2.7% 1.5% 2 Elsenham Stn 3.3% 1.9% 3 Elsenham Centre 3.3% 1.9% 4 Henham 2.7% 1.5% 5 Stansted Airport 8.1% 25.0% 6 Stansted Mountfitchet 8.8% 6.0% 7 Bishop's Stortford 17.1% 12.0% 8 Sawbridgeworth 0.3% 0.3% 9 Great Dunmow 1.4% 1.4% 10 Harlow 6.6% 6.6% 11 London 20.0% 20.0% 12 Saffron Walden 2.7% 2.0% 13 Newport 1.2% 0.9% 14 Audley End 0.7% 0.5% 15 Great Chesterford 0.3% 0.2% 16 Uttlesford East 2.2% 1.6% 17 Uttlesford South 2.4% 1.7% 18 Uttlesford West 0.2% 0.1% 19 Brox-Ches 0.9% 0.6% 20 Essex A120E 1.5% 1.1% 21 Essex A130S 1.4% 1.0% 22 Essex M11S 1.7% 1.2% 23 Hertford-Ware 1.4% 1.0% 24 Rest of E Herts 1.2% 0.9% 25 Stevenage-N Herts 0.7% 0.5% 26 SW Herts 1.4% 1.0% 27 Cambs 2.4% 5.0% 28 Norfolk-Suffolk 0.2% 0.1% 29 Rest of UK North 1.0% 0.7% 30 Rest of UK South 2.4% 1.7% 7

15 EXTERNAL MODE SPLIT The mode splits for external trips in the 2015 forecast scenarios are directly related to the distribution of trips within the 30 zone system detailed above. In the Min PT scenario, where no improvements to the public transport services are assumed, the 2015 predicted mode split percentages are anticipated to be similar to the existing census data split with only some modest variations. The car driver mode share remains constant and the car passenger mode share has been assumed to increase to 7% to reflect the likely increased potential for car sharing associated with a significant new development. Consequently, other mode split percentages have been adjusted slightly to retain a total of 100%. The maximum public transport case for the with development scenario is also based on the census mode splits for zones where there are no public transport improvements. However, in the maximum PT scenario an elasticity model has been used to calculate the likely mode shift response to the proposed public transport improvements on journeys to Bishop s Stortford, Harlow, Stansted Mountfitchet and Stansted Airport, which would be served by the proposed high frequency circular bus service and would benefit from the improved rail services. Assuming that the train service from Cambridge to Stansted Airport will make an additional stop at Elsenham in 2015, in the Max PT case train mode shares have also been increased slightly for journeys to all zones with direct rail links from Elsenham. The following overall mode shares for external trips only result from the minimum public transport case and the maximum public transport case in each of the development scenarios: Mode 2015 Minimum PT 2015 Maximum PT Car Driver 76% 50% Car Passenger 7% 4% Bus 1% 16% Train 13% 27% Bicycle 1% 1% Walk 1% 1% Other 1% 1% Total 100.0% 100% OVERALL DEVELOPMENT MODE SPLIT The above table does not include mode shares for internal trips within the development site as these are not explicitly calculated within the model. However, these have been estimated using data from the National Travel Survey of Great Britain for journeys less than 1.6km (one mile). Therefore, the overall mode split for the development including both internal and external trips appears approximately as follows for the two Public Transport cases (Calculations based on the Mid Growth development scenario): Mode Minimum Minimum Maximum Maximum PT - AM PT - PM PT - AM PT - PM Car Driver 57% 62% 39% 43% Car Passenger 8% 8% 5% 5% Bus 1% 1% 12% 10% Train 9% 10% 19% 22% Bicycle 1% 1% 1% 1% Walk 23% 17% 23% 18% Other 1% 1% 1% 1% Total 100% 100% 100.0% 100% 8

16 TOTAL DEVELOPMENT EXTERNAL TRIPS Based on the above calculations, the total external trip generation for the three proposed development scenarios, with minimum and maximum public transport are as follows: Min Growth Residential Units + 22,500m 2 B1 Minimum PT Maximum PT AM PM AM PM Mode Arr Dep Arr Dep Arr Dep Arr Dep Car Driver Car Pass Bus Train Cycle Walk Other All Trips Mid Growth Residential Units + 40,000m 2 B1 Minimum PT Maximum PT AM PM AM PM Mode Arr Dep Arr Dep Arr Dep Arr Dep Car Driver Car Pass Bus Train Cycle Walk Other All Trips Sensitivity Test Residential Units + 80,000m 2 B1 Minimum PT Maximum PT AM PM AM PM Mode Arr Dep Arr Dep Arr Dep Arr Dep Car Driver Car Pass Bus Train Cycle Walk Other All Trips

17 LINK ASSIGNMENT Once the total trips by mode had been identified, the development traffic flows in total vehicles (car driver trips) were assigned to the links on the local road network to be assessed. During a site visit to Elsenham, the routes for traffic assignment were identified based on the quality, attractiveness and convenience of the roads radiating outwards from the proposed development site. Four roads (Hall Road, Stansted Road, Henham Road and North Hall Road) have been selected as the principal routes for assignment within this assessment: Hall Road was identified as the main option for the majority of routes as this link via Stansted Airport offers the quickest and most convenient access to A120 for eastbound and westbound movements and M11 Junction 8 for longer distance north and southbound traffic. This will remain the case if a second runway and associated surface access measures come forward. Stansted Road also offers access to south-westbound destinations including Stansted Mountfitchet and Bishop s Stortford, though this link is already congested, with the main sources of delay at traffic lights on approach to Stansted Mountfitchet and at the B1383 junction with A120 on approach to Bishop s Stortford which is understood to suffer long southbound queues during peak hours. Henham Road is suitable for eastbound and north-eastbound traffic but is generally substandard, so alternative routes via Hall Road and A120 are likely to be more attractive for destinations other than Henham, Thaxted and other villages as they are likely to offer quicker access. North Hall Road has also been chosen as the main route for northbound local destinations south of M11 Junction 9 (eg Saffron Walden, Audley End, Newport and Great Chesterford) as this route is of reasonable quality and has significant spare capacity, offering a justifiable cost benefit case over accessing the M11 via Hall Road, A120 and Junction 8, especially during peak hours. However, restricted visibility at the railway bridge east of Ugley currently poses a physical constraint which will need to be addressed in order to make this route safe for use by the proposed development traffic. Other road links in the area were considered to offer no overall cost benefit in terms of time savings for use on a regular basis, due to their very substandard alignment in places. These include secondary routes to Stansted Mountfitchet, westbound destinations via Ugley Green and northbound destinations via the main village of Ugley. Similarly, the use of alternative routes to Great Dunmow and other eastbound destinations via Broxted and Great Easton would be very time consuming and unattractive in comparison with using the A120 via Hall Road. The following routing proportions by zone were subsequently assumed for the four main road links in order to calculate the assignment. (It should be noted that trips assigned to the road link entitled local are trips which remain within the village of Elsenham): 10

18 Zone ID Elsenham Zone Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd North Hall Rd Local 1 Elsenham North East 100% 2 Elsenham Stn 100% 3 Elsenham TC 100% 4 Henham 100% 5 Stansted Air 100% 6 Stansted MF 100% 7 Bishop's Stortford 90% 10% 8 Sawbridgeworth 100% 9 Great Dunmow 100% 10 Harlow 100% 11 London 100% 12 Saffron Walden 100% 13 Newport 100% 14 Audley End 100% 15 Great Chesterford 100% 16 Uttlesford East 50% 50% 17 Uttlesford South 100% 18 Uttlesford West 10% 90% 19 Brox-Ches 100% 20 Essex A120E 100% 21 Essex A130S 100% 22 Essex M11S 100% 23 Hertford-Ware 50% 50% 24 Rest of E Herts 30% 50% 20% 25 Stevenage-N Herts 60% 40% 26 SW Herts 50% 50% 27 Cambs 50% 50% 28 Norfolk-Suffolk 80% 20% 29 Rest of UK North 100% 30 Rest of UK South 100% Hence the resulting percentages of total car trips as assigned to each link in the Min PT and Max PT scenarios are as follows: % of total car trips Min PT Max PT North Hall Rd 6.9% 8.8% Hall Rd 75.6% 72.8% Henham Rd 2.2% 3.3% Stansted Rd 9.9% 7.1% Local 5.4% 8.0% The full car trip assignment results for each of the 6 scenarios are shown in Appendix B. CAPACITY ASSESSMENT SUMMARY For the purposes of this assessment, the ultimate capacities of Hall Road, Henham Road and Stansted Road have been assumed to be 1500 vehicles per lane per hour, as used for these actual road links within the DfT s UK National Transport Model (NTM). For North Hall Road a capacity of 1400 vehicles per lane per hour has additionally been assumed, also based on NTM. 11

19 The capacity assessment is therefore constructed from the base flows observed in 2004/2006, with baseline growth to 2015 and development flows calculated for the two housing scenarios and the sensitivity test, with minimum and maximum public transport cases as outlined above. The tables in Appendix A summarise the derivation of the predicted with development scenarios and the total flows on each road in each case. From this it is clear that the impact upon link capacity is insignificant on North Hall Road, with over 80% of link capacity remaining in all scenarios. Impacts at Stansted Road and Henham Road are also very minor, with over 60% of link capacity remaining available in all development scenarios. Hall Road is more constrained as the majority of the development traffic is likely to travel via this road link. The link capacity analysis suggests that both the 1500 and 2650 dwelling scenarios could be accommodated without significant improvements to public transport required but in both the min PT and Max PT cases, there would be insufficient road capacity for the maximum scenario of 7000 houses, with the existing road layout. To quantify the likely transport capacity for the proposed development at Elsenham, an interpolation between the maximum directional link flows for the 2650 and 7000 unit scenarios showed that without improvements to public transport, there would be scope in terms of the link capacity of Hall Road for up to 4500 dwellings to be accommodated. However, with the maximum public transport improvements in place, interpolating between the 2650 and 7000 unit scenarios, an ultimate capacity for the existing road layout (1500vehs/lane/hr) is reached with approximately 6400 housing units. In relation to Stansted Airport, a very successful travel plan for employees is currently in operation. The likelihood is that this will become even more successful in the future in terms of reducing dependency upon single occupancy car trips to the airport. The above preliminary analysis covers link flow capacity only at this stage. Although it does not include for junction capacity (which may be more limited at key pinch points within the surrounding road network), it does give some guidance as to the capacity of the existing links radiating from Elsenham to cater for the future traffic demand. The scope of the impact upon local junctions has yet to be determined and will be the subject of future studies but there are very few junctions on the local county road network which are likely to be adversely affected, given the distribution outlined above. With the majority of development traffic routed via Hall Road and A120, the key junctions are Hall Road/ Parsonage Lane/ Stansted Airport Access and the Takely crossroads. It is the intention to expand this initial capacity study further in the future not only to cover junction capacity assessments but also to incorporate a full sustainability appraisal, including improvements to cycling and walking modes. This appraisal would also take into account the Stansted Airport Travel Plan measures with the overall result that predicted traffic movements on the local road network are likely to be even less than the figures given in this preliminary report. 12

20 Appendices, Figures & Tables

21 Proposed Development Site Figure 1 General Location Plan Scale: N.T.S

22 Henham Rd Hall Hall Hall Hall Hall Hall Hall Hall Hall Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd North Hall Rd Station Rd Stansted Stansted Stansted Stansted Stansted Stansted Stansted Stansted Stansted Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Rd Old Mead Lane Figure 2 - Site Location Plan Proposed Development Land

23 Service Operator Frequency Route 1Trustline 1 Trip daily 7 Transit Hourly 317 Transit 2 Trips Daily Figure 3 - Plan of Bus Routes Serving Elsenham Scale: n.t.s

24 Appendix A Capacity Assessment Results

25 Elsenham Initial Road Link Capacity Assessment Results Hall Rd Public Tranport Case 1 - Development with No Improvements to Public Transport (Min PT) 2004 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev Scenario Dwellings AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound Public Tranport Case 2 - Development with proposed Public Transport Strategy in place (Max PT) 2004 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Dev (Max PT) 2015 Base + Dev Scenario Dwellings AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound Data Sources Base data obtained from BAA Stansted Airport Survey and data collection report part 2 (Faber Maunsell, 2004). 2 way flows based on Parsonage Road North link flows 1 way flows based on 2 way flows with tidal split defined by Hall Rd surveys (220 from North v 120 from south = 65:35 split) 1way ultimate capacity of Parsonage Road/Hall Road = 1500vph (vehicles per lane per hour) Based on link capacity taken from DfT UK National Transport Model Growth Factors based on NRTF 97 with localised corrections from TEMPRO v4.3 (Uttlesford Rural Zone) Growth factor = 1.081

26 Elsenham Initial Road Link Capacity Assessment Results North Hall Rd Public Tranport Case 1 - Development with No Improvements to Public Transport (Min PT) 2006 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev Scenario Dwellings AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound Public Tranport Case 2 - Development with proposed Public Transport Strategy in place (Max PT) 2006 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Dev (Max PT) 2015 Base + Dev Scenario Dwellings AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound Data Sources Base data obtained from WSP surveys observed July way ultimate capacity of North Hall Rd = 1400vph (vehicles per lane per hour) Based on link capacity taken from DfT UK National Transport Model Growth Factors based on NRTF 97 with localised corrections from TEMPRO v4.3 (Uttlesford Rural Zone) Growth factor = 1.053

27 Elsenham Initial Road Link Capacity Assessment Results Henham Rd Public Tranport Case 1 - Development with No Improvements to Public Transport (Min PT) 2004 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev Scenario Dwellings AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound Public Tranport Case 2 - Development with proposed Public Transport Strategy in place (Max PT) 2004 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Dev (Max PT) 2015 Base + Dev Scenario Dwellings AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound Data Sources Base data obtained from Essex County Council Highways, Observed May way ultimate capacity of Parsonage Road/Hall Road = 1500vph (vehicles per lane per hour) Based on link capacity taken from DfT UK National Transport Model Growth Factors based on NRTF 97 with localised corrections from TEMPRO v4.3 (Uttlesford Rural Zone) Growth factor = 1.081

28 Elsenham Initial Road Link Capacity Assessment Results Stansted Rd Public Tranport Case 1 - Development with No Improvements to Public Transport (Min PT) 2004 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base + Dev Scenario Dwellings AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound Public Tranport Case 2 - Development with proposed Public Transport Strategy in place (Max PT) 2004 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Dev (Max PT) 2015 Base + Dev Scenario Dwellings AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound AM southbound PM northbound Data Sources Base data obtained from Essex County Council Highways, Observed September way ultimate capacity of Stansted Rd = 1500vph (vehicles per lane per hour) Based on link capacity taken from DfT UK National Transport Model Growth Factors based on NRTF 97 with localised corrections from TEMPRO v4.3 (Uttlesford Rural Zone) Growth factor = 1.081

29 Elsenham Link Capacity Impact 1500 HH + 22,500m 2 B1 Maximum One Directional Flows Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity (Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour) Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity % Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd % 93% 91% 91% Henham Rd % 78% 75% 77% Stansted Rd % 82% 81% 81% Hall Rd % 69% 43% 53%

30 Elsenham Link Capacity Impact 2650 HH + 40,000m 2 B1 Maximum One Directional Flows Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity (Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour) Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity % Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd % 93% 89% 90% Henham Rd % 78% 72% 75% Stansted Rd % 82% 80% 80% Hall Rd % 69% 23% 40%

31 Elsenham Link Capacity Impact 7000 HH + 80,000m 2 B1 Maximum One Directional Flows Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity (Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour) Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd Henham Rd Stansted Rd Hall Rd Remaining Capacity % Road NTM Capacity 2004/06 Base 2015 Baseline 2015 Base+Dev (Min PT) 2015 Base+Dev (Max PT) North Hall Rd % 93% 81% 83% Henham Rd % 78% 62% 71% Stansted Rd % 82% 78% 78% Hall Rd % 69% -53% -9%

32

33 Appendix B Proposed Development Car Trip Assignment Results

34 Land East of Elsenham Trip Assignment Results - Total Car Trips Public Tranport Case 1 - Development with No Improvements to Public Transport (Min PT) Public Tranport Case 2 - Development with proposed Public Transport Strategy in place (Max PT) Min Growth 1500 HH + 22,500m 2 B1 AM Arr AM Dep PM Arr PM Dep Min Growth 1500 HH + 22,500m 2 B1 AM Arr AM Dep PM Arr PM Dep Min PT % of total car trips Max PT % of total car trips North Hall Rd 6.9% North Hall Rd 8.8% Hall Rd 75.7% Hall Rd 72.8% Henham Rd 2.2% Henham Rd 3.3% Stansted Rd 9.9% Stansted Rd 7.1% Local within Elsenham 5.3% Local within Elsenham 8.0% Mid Growth 2650 HH + 40,000m 2 B1 AM Arr AM Dep PM Arr PM Dep Mid Growth 2650 HH + 40,000m 2 B1 AM Arr AM Dep PM Arr PM Dep Min PT % of total car trips Max PT % of total car trips North Hall Rd 6.9% North Hall Rd 8.8% Hall Rd 75.7% Hall Rd 72.8% Henham Rd 2.2% Henham Rd 3.3% Stansted Rd 9.9% Stansted Rd 7.1% Local within Elsenham 5.3% Local within Elsenham 8.0% Max Growth 7000 HH + 80,000m 2 B1 AM Arr AM Dep PM Arr PM Dep Max Growth 7000 HH + 80,000m 2 B1 AM Arr AM Dep PM Arr PM Dep Min PT % of total car trips Max PT % of total car trips North Hall Rd 6.9% North Hall Rd 8.8% Hall Rd 75.7% Hall Rd 72.8% Henham Rd 2.2% Henham Rd 3.3% Stansted Rd 9.9% Stansted Rd 7.1% Local within Elsenham 5.3% Local within Elsenham 8.0%

35