Financial stability and regional monetary cooperation
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1 Financial stability and regional monetary cooperation Charles Wyplosz The Graduate Institute, Geneva Conference on Deepening Financial Sector Reforms and Regional Cooperation in South Asia Delhi November 6-7, 2008
2 The issues Incredible timing! Financial turbulences and exchange rates The Asian and European experiences compared Note: so far mostly East Asia
3 Massive crisis Financial turbulences and the exchange rate Yet no exchange rate tensions within European monetary union The dog that didn t bark Elsewhere?
4 Financial turbulences and the exchange rate Non members of the euro area 100 Czech koruna UK pound sterling Hungarian forint 70 Polish zloty Romanian leu Swedish krona 2006Jan 2006Jul 2007Jan 2007Jul 2008Jan 2008Jul
5 Financial turbulences and the exchange rate Some Asian countries 100 Indian rupiah Indonesian rupiah Korean won (Republic) Malaysian ringgit Philippine peso Thai bhat Jan 2006Jul 2007Jan 2007Jul 2008Jan 2008Jul
6 The Asian and European experiences Exchange rate agreements Linchpin of European integration Absent in Asia Mutual support Unlimited under ERM and automatic in euro area Web of limited bilateral swap agreements under Chiang Mai initiative
7 Chiang Mai initiative Bilateral Swap Amount as of b Arrangements (BSA) a Currencies Conclusion dates May 30, 2004 Apr Japan-Korea c US$/Won (one-way) Jul US$2 bn. d Japan-Korea US$/local (two-way) Feb US$15 bn. Japan- Korea Yen/Won (two-way) Jul US$6 bn. Japan-Thailand c US$/Baht (one-way) Jul US$3 bn. Japan-Thailand US$/local (two-way) Nov US$9 bn. Japan-Philippines c US$/Peso Aug US$3 bn. Japan-Philippines US$/local (two-way) May US$6.5 bn. Japan-Malaysia US$/Ringgit (one-way) Oct US$1 bn. d US$1 bn. d Japan-China Yen/ RMB (two-way) Sep US$6 bn. US$6 bn. Japan-Indonesia c US$/Rupiah (one-way) Feb US$3 bn. Japan-Indonesia US$/Rupiah (one-way) Aug US$6 bn. Japan-Singapore c US$/Sing.$ (one-way) Nov US$1 bn. Japan-Singapore US$/local (two-way) Nov US$4 bn. Korea - China c Won/ RMB (two-way) Jun US$4 bn. Korea - China Won/RMB (two-way) Jun US$8 bn. Korea-Thailand US$/local (two-way) Dec US$2 bn. US$2 bn. Korea-Malaysia c US$/local (two-way) Jul US$2 bn. Korea-Malaysia US$/local (two-way) Oct US$3 bn. Korea-Philippines c US$/local (two-way) Aug US$2 bn. Korea-Philippines US$/local (two-way) Oct US$4 bn. Korea-Indonesia US$/local (two-way) Dec US$2 bn. US$4 bn. China-Thailand US$/Baht (one-way) Dec US$2 bn. US$2 bn. China-Malaysia c US$/Ringgit (one-way) Oct US$1.5 bn. US$1.5 bn. China-Philippine RMB/Peso (one-way) Apr US$1 bn. US$2 bn. China-Indonesia Rupiah/RMB (one-way) Dec US$1 bn. China-Indonesia US$/Rupiah (one-way) Oct US$4 bn. Small amounts relative to reserves Normal if no surveillance But what anchor?
8 The Asian and European experiences Exchange rate agreements Linchpin of European integration Absent in Asia Mutual support Unlimited under ERM and automatic in euro area Web of limited bilateral swap agreements under Chiang Mai initiative Enlargement to India, Australia, New Zealand under consideration
9 The anchor issue Cooperation and mutual support need an anchor/yardstick Europe relied on exchange rate agreements Objective criteria Automatically calls for coordination Asia relies on soft surveillance ERPD: no clear criterion Therefore conflictual
10 The Asian and European experiences Financial market integration Europe: opening to competition integrate into world markets market driven Asia (ABMI): regional-defensive develop internal markets government-led institutions
11 Conclusion: the mirage of foreign exchange reserves Even the Greenspan-Guidotti rule is not fail-safe! Foreign exchange reserves/gdp Foreign exchange reserves/gross liabilities China China India 1.2 India 0.4 Korea 1 Korea
12 Conclusion: the mirage of foreign exchange reserves Foreign exchange reserves Can deter moderate speculative attacks Will never be a 100% guarantee Exchange rates remain a fatal hazard For net debtor countries Even for net creditor countries Gross vs. net liabilities The original sin problem will not go away But deep regional cooperation does help
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