Understanding the Market
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- Todd Darren Warner
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1 IATA Seminar: A Successful Airport for a Successful Industry Understanding the Market Ian Thomas Senior Consultant Industry Affairs
2 The Asian Growth Bubble Regional economic expansion + China + Air service liberalisation + Market restructuring + Improved airline profits + Greater Competition + Emergence of Low-Cost Carriers + = GROWTH
3 Key Issues for Airlines: Driving Costs Down Airlines responding to fundamental market changes by: reducing legacy costs segmenting operations, market-aligned services developing new operating models maintaining pressure on cost centres, including airports The outcome: = improved profit margins, resilience = expansion of services, capacity = higher levels of traffic growth (yields still soft)
4 Liberalisation: Accelerating Fast Cross-border deregulation moves from go-slow into overdrive Top down, bottom up process Largely market and industry-driven, especially low-cost airline development Governments forced to confront the unexpected pace of change Time to reassess policy, particularly towards airports Expect wholesale regulatory change within three years
5 Liberalisation: Southeast Asia Singapore Australia 22-Sep-99 Significantly liberalised agreement removes capacity restrictions on intermediate and beyond fifth freedom rights Singapore Sri Lanka Sep-99 Open skies Singapore UAE 25-Feb-00 Open skies Thailand UAE 07-Mar-00 Open skies Thailand India Nov-99 Five new destinations added to India Thailand China 31-Dec-99 Open skies Malaysia Japan 03-Mar-00 Significantly expanded bilateral air services agreement Malaysia Hong Kong SAR 11-Mar-00 Open capacity Malaysia Indonesia 26-Aug-99 Significantly expanded bilateral air services agreement
6 Liberalisation: Northeast Asia China Australia 8-Jul-99 Liberalised air services agreement China Japan 31-Jul Liberalised agreement, increasing weekly frequencies between the two countries by 35 each China Nepal Aug-99 Liberalised agreement allowing 14 frequencies per week each on China-Nepal routes China Thailand 31-Dec-99 Open skies China South Korea18-Mar-00 Liberalised bilateral air services agreement, providing multiple carrier designation on three routes Hong Kong SAR Australia 14-Apr-00 Liberalised air services agreement, providing for doubling of capacity/frequency Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong SAR Thailand 18-Mar-00 Liberalised agreement - unlimited passenger services between Hong Kong and all Thai destinations, fifth freedom rights and codesharing UK 26-Nov-99 Liberalised agreement - unlimited passenger services between Hong Kong and the UK, comprehensive codeshare arrangement and fifth-freedom rights Hong Kong SA Russia 11-Feb-04 Bilateral air services agreement involving a 130% increase in the number of weekly Hong Kong-Russia frequencies, fifth freedom rights Hong Kong SAR Malaysia 11-Mar-00 Open capacity agreement
7 China Enters Regulatory Sixth Phase Traffic Growth Phase Five Phase Six Deregulation & Liberalisation Phase Two Phase Three Competition & Expansion Phase Four Privatisation & "Excessive" Competition Consolidation Phase One De-centralisation Centralisation Source: Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation
8 Key Issues for Airport Policy Government regulation soft or firm-handed; Privatisation new commercial paradigm; investor, shareholder focus Infrastructure, operational demands, providing for high growth; new airline structures Pricing for the new airline environment uniform or differential? Development strategy hub or non-hub, build non aeronautical Increasing competition for hub-hub and hub-secondary traffic in Asia
9 Competing Hubs BJS SEL KIX TYO SHA CAN MFN HKG TPE KAO MNL BKK KUL SIN JKT
10 Reinforcing the Hub Priority 1. Priority 2. Priority 3. More efficiently servicing Full Service Carriers = Focus on reducing overheads = Improving transfer connectivity Expanding retail, other non-aero revenue Establishing low-cost airline terminal (optional) = Capture of high growth revenue (greater throughput, more retail and duty-free spend) = Centralised infrastructure, transport services (no duplication) = Opportunity to build support services (MRO, ground handling, training)
11 Influence of the Low-Cost Carriers Strong drivers of tourism, leisure market growth + pricesensitive business travel segment Specific airport requirements: Discounted charges, rentals (often performance based) Slots available for growth Rapid turnaround capability Minimal terminal facilities Stand alone IT, reservations systems Do not connect.yet
12 The Policy Options A complex formula, difficult to get right Prerequisites are to: (1) entrench the hub; and (2) provide for growth and the development of new markets Achieve a predictable environment within reason Privatisation policy needs clarity and transparency Otherwise airport sale may not optimise returns on government investment Strong competition exists for investment capital (China, India)
13 Conclusion 1: Key Issues for Government Airports Policy has to balance: Airline customer needs Competitive issues Consumer needs The National economy; and Investor requirements. The hub strategy needs to accommodate ALL categories of operator: Network carriers New entrants; and Subsidiaries/joint ventures Operational principles: Non discriminatory pricing Adequate facilities Good transfers
14 Conclusion 2 Developments within the airline industry will maintain high growth and pressure on governments to bring forward air service liberalisation Governments have responded by expanding bilateral agreements, and entering into talks on multilateral pacts The drive to deregulate has created opportunities, but also intensified competition, especially between hubs This has emphasised the need for a coherent and effective aviation and airports policy Failure to achieve such a policy may jeopardise hub competitive positions and privatisation plans
15 IATA Seminar September 6, 2004 Thank you!
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