FLOODS OF MAY-JUNE 2016 IN FRANCE Modeling the risks and damages

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1 FLOODS OF MAY-JUNE 2016 IN FRANCE Modeling the risks and damages R&D / Modeling Team Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds Department CCR June 28, 2016

2 Summary Intense rainfall affected the northern half of France between May 25 and June 6, 2016 causing several watercourses to burst their banks, particularly in the Loire and Seine basins. This may well be the most costly natural disaster loss since the creation of the compensation scheme in CCR's models of these events and the information gathered in the field enabled the company to provide a preliminary estimate of the total amount of insured property that falls within the range of 900 million and 1.4 billion. With the information reported by its clients, CCR sharpened its estimate of insured damage that should reach upwards of 1.2 billion in total. CCR is expected to pay at least half of this cost. This study addresses the uncertainties that persist concerning the assessment of this cost and that may lead to an inevitable adjustment notably when consideration is given to damages to basements and sub-levels as well as to business interruption losses affecting industries and merchants. The study also details the characteristics of the entirety of the natural events as well as the nature of the losses that the events incurred. Estimation at June 7 of the cost of the events of May-June 2016 resulting from the CCR simulation Event Dates Modeled cost ( m) Flooding of the Seine and Loire basins May 30 to June [ ] 1665 (*) Storms North Lorraine West May 25 to June 1 [ ] Yonne Normandy Center Total cost May 25 to June [ ] 1800 (*) (*) The central interval corresponds to [25%-75%] quantiles and the widest interval corresponds to [10%-90%] quantiles. ~~~ Since 1982, France enjoys the benefit of a system for the compensation of losses caused by natural disasters (flooding, earthquakes, subsidence or landslides, cyclones, volcanic eruptions, marine submersions...). The mechanism, called the natural disaster scheme, enables all insureds homeowners, businesses, local and regional authorities to purchase affordable coverage against these risks irrespective of the level of exposure. Thanks to the concerted action of insurers and CCR, the scheme also guarantees quick and certain compensation of the losses incurred regardless of their scale. A major player at the center of the compensation scheme, CCR has developed models to simulate a variety of natural perils, including flooding, which attests to its role as the industry expert when it comes to the knowledge of these risks. These models enable the company, above all, to measure the value of insured damages in the days following a disaster, but also enable it to assess the vulnerability of the territories before an event thereby helping to implement preventive measures. 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 2

3 A t the end of May 2016, France was battered by heavy rains that resulted in unprecedented water levels and flooding of significant scale causing widespread property damage. Beginning Wednesday May 25, several thunderstorms, some extremely violent, struck the regions located northwest of the Bordeaux-Metz line. The most violent events in terms of material damage concerned primarily the regions of western France (in particular the departments of Charente- Maritime, Loire-Atlantique, Charente, Vienne and Haute-Vienne), the regions of central France (mainly the outer-lying areas of the town of Vichy), the region of Normandy (with significant damage to the departments of Seine-Maritime and Eure) and the department of Yonne (Figure 1). From May 30, additional heavy rains began to fall and, above all, continued over a period of several days affecting the departments of Loir-et-Cher (the Loire catchment basin) and Loiret (the upstream catchment basin of the Loing) and subsequently Yonne. All the conditions were in place to initiate the major flooding of a number of the Seine's tributaries, upstream from Paris. Consequently, the water level surpassed that of 1910 along the Loing and Ouanne and also rose to exceptional levels along the Yerres and Yvette causing very significant damage in numerous municipalities such as Montargis, Nemours, Gif-sur-Yvette, Longjumeau and Melun. The waters of the Marne river rose to moderate levels and the town of Gournay-sur-Marne recorded a level of 3 meters less than that of The Yonne river reached a level equivalent to that of May 2013, which was moderate. Downstream from Paris, the waters of the Oise also rose yet they did not reach the levels of 2001 recorded at Pontoise. However, the Seine reached its highest level since 1982 with 6.10 meters recorded at Paris- Austerlitz on June 4, 2016 at 2:00 p.m. according to the Flood Advisory Service (Service de Prévision des Crues - SPC) for the Seine basin. Although the 6-meter threshold was surpassed making this event a major flood, the waters did not rise beyond the banks of the Seine in Paris proper and remained 2.50 meters below the level of The reservoir-lakes located upstream played a vital role in managing the flood at its peak reaching filling levels that surpassed 90% of their capacity (source: Établissement Public Seine Grands Lacs). The return period for a similar event at Paris-Austerlitz is estimated to be 10 to 20 years with a flow in excess of 1,600 m 3 /sec according to the flood frequency curves for the Ministry of Environment's hydro data bank. 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 3

4 (CCR, 2016, Source for underlying maps: ESRI) Figure1: Rain and thunderstorm events of May 25 to June 4, 2016 CCR plotting of the events and risk simulation To estimate the consequences of the floods occurring from May 25 to June 4, seven events were created and simulated using a hydrological model coupled with an impact model applied to the geolocalized insured property (Moncoulon et al., 2014). In order to simulate the risk, the model was fed by meteorological data measured using Météo France rain gauges: - Number of hours of rainfall for the entire duration of the event, - Rainfall and daily amount of evapotranspiration for the month preceding the event. These data provide a model of run-off flooding. Flows measured in real-time by the Vigicrue network are used to model the overflows. 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 4

5 (CCR, 2016, Source: Météo France, Underlying maps: ESRI, OpenStreetMap) 1. Description of the flooding of the Seine and Loire drainage basins from May 30 to June 4, 2016 Characteristics: A rain and thunderstorm event occurred on May 30 in the Loiret (45) and Loir-et- Cher (41) departments and in the Ile-de-France region following the heavy rains that fell the preceding week. The month of May 2016 was characterized by record rainfall in central France and the Ile-de-France region. In all, almost millimeters of rain fell on Paris surpassing the previous record of 132 millimeters of May The city of Orleans suffered a similar fate as millimeters of measured rainfall fell, the equivalent of several times the normal amount for a month of May (Figures 2 & 4) 1. Figure2: Flooding of the Seine and Loire drainage basins - Map showing cumulative rainfall (Météo France) and risk zones simulated by CCR At the end of the day on June 1, the Inter-Ministerial Crisis Management Operational Center (Centre Opérationnel de Gestion Interministérielle des Crises - COGIC) initiated activation of the Copernicus Emergency Service enabling the means of acquiring satellite coverage to monitor the development of the event and to rapidly produce maps of the exposed zones. The maps of the flood zones facilitated the crisis management process. Subsequently, they enabled CCR to validate the simulated risk using its hydrological model (Figure 3). 1 Normal: monthly average established over the period from 1981 to /28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 5

6 Figure 3: Satellite imagery produced by the Copernicus Emergency Service and comparison with the risk zones simulated by the CCR model (overflows and run-off) area includes the departments of Melun (77) and Poissy (78) 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 6

7 Height of the Seine in Paris (in meters) Precipitation in millimeters (source Météo-France) Figure 4: Rainfall in Paris (Montsouris) and in Orleans between 05/01/2016 and 06/02/2016 (source: Météo France) Paris Orléans Given the fact that the ground was already saturated, the watercourses filled quickly. Flooding of the Loing river began at Montargis at the end of the afternoon of May 30 reaching its maximum level of 3.45 meters on June 1 at midnight, thereby surpassing its record of January 1910 (Desarthe J., Moncoulon D., 2016). At Nemours, the waters of the Loing rose 4.63 meters surpassing the 1910 level by 38 centimeters. The record levels of the Loing were due to the spillage of thousands of cubic meters of water resulting from a significant breach in the Briare canal. Downstream, the water levels of the Seine had surpassed that of a 6-meter major flood and 6.10 meters were recorded at the Austerlitz bridge just 5 centimeters below the level of This was the 37 th time that the Seine had exceeded the 6-meter mark in Paris since 1649 (Figure 5). Figure 5: Historical analysis of major and exceptional Seine floods in Paris (Source: EPTB Seine Grands Lacs) 9 8,5 8 7,5 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 In the Val-de-Loire region, the tributaries of the Cher river such as the Sauldre and Yèvre were also severely flooded. At Tours, not far from its junction with the Loire river, the Cher reached its 2001 level of 4.85 meters. 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 7

8 Property damage: The overflow of several watercourses, especially of the Seine in the Seine-et- Marne and Yvelines departments, caused very significant damage to property. The towns of Nemours, Montargis, Melun and Longjumeau were the most severely affected. The floods forced many people to evacuate over the entire period from May 25 to June 4. Several malfunctions were also observed along with the interruption of communication networks. At Orleans, the A10 highway was flooded obliging motorists to abandon their vehicles while in Paris, RER C rail transportation was shut down. Furthermore, the other flooded waterways reached historic levels later in the period as was the case with the Cher river at Tours. These floods caused widespread damage in municipalities such as Bourges (18), Vierzon (18) and Noyers-sur-Cher (41) where homes and communication routes were inundated. Departments concerned: 18, 28, 36, 37, 41, 45, 89, 75, 77, 78, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95 Most severely damaged municipalities: Montargis (45), Nemours (77), Melun (77), Moret-sur-Loing (77) Longjumeau (91), Villeneuve-Saint-Georges (94) Flooded watercourses: Seine, Loing, Yvette, Yerres, Bièvre 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 8

9 (CCR, 2016, Source: Météo France, Underlying maps: ESRI, OpenStreetMap) 2. Description of the storms of May 25 to June 1, STORMS AFFECTING NORTHERN FRANCE FROM MAY 30 TO 31, 2016 Characteristics: Precipitation was relatively heavy with 60 millimeters of rainfall recorded at Merville and 46 millimeters at Lille. Heavy rains caused run-off flooding but also the occasional overflowing of waterways such as the Lawe and Clarence (Figure 6). Figure 6: Storms affecting northern France - Map of cumulative rainfall and risk zones simulated by CCR Property damage: in Doullens (80), approximately forty homes were flooded with 80 centimeters of water. In Lille (59), a portion of the metro line was paralyzed and rail traffic was shut down. Firemen responded to over 850 calls in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais region to pump water from flooded streets, homes and basements. Departments concerned: Nord (59), Pas-de-Calais (62), Somme (80) Most severely damaged municipalities: Béthune (62), Merville(59), Bruay-la-Buissière (62) Watercourses having left their banks: Lawe and Clarence 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 9

10 (CCR, 2016, Source: Météo France, Underlying maps: ESRI, OpenStreetMap) 2.2. FLOODS AFFECTING LORRAINE FROM MAY 31 TO JUNE 1, 2016 Characteristics: The rain and thunderstorm event that affected the Lorraine region between May 31 and June 1 was characterized by 10 to 35 millimeters of rainfall. Municipalities north of the Meuse department (55) were the most severely affected. Under the effect of heavily concentrated rainfall, the Orne river left its banks in several municipalities (Figure 7). Figure 7: Storms affecting Lorraine - Map of cumulative rainfall and risk zones simulated by CCR Property damage: Homes were inundated in the Meuse department at Briey (55) due to the flooding of the Orne. In the Meurthe-et-Moselle (54) department, firemen responded to several calls to pump out flooded homes, streets and basements but also to evacuate the local population exposed to the rising flood waters. The rail lines between Thionville and Luxembourg in the Moselle department (57) were shut down in several places. Road and highway systems were also severely affected as several routes were cut over the course of the event. Departments concerned: Meuse (55), Meurthe-and-Moselle (54), Moselle (57) Most severely damaged municipalities: Trieux (54), Briey (55) Waterways subject to overflowing: Orne 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 10

11 (CCR, 2016, Source: Météo France, Underlying maps: ESRI, OpenStreetMap) 2.3. STORMS AFFECTING CENTRAL FRANCE ON MAY 27, 2016 Characteristics: On the evening of Friday May 27, the Vichy (03) area was struck by a violent thunderstorm that also affected the adjacent departments of Puy-de-Dôme (63) and Loire (42). Precipitation in the form of hail obstructed a number of sewer inlets causing water to back up and flood streets in the city of Vichy. Figure 8: Storms affecting central France - Map of cumulative rainfall and risk zones simulated by CCR Property damage: Firemen responded to almost 200 calls to pump water from flooded homes and basements. Departments concerned: Allier (03), Puy-de-Dôme (63), Loire (42) Most severely damaged municipalities: Vichy (03), Cusset (03) and Bellerive (03) 2.4. STORMS AFFECTING WESTERN FRANCE FROM MAY 27 TO 29, 2016 Characteristics: A particularly violent rain and thunderstorm event affected western France and in particular the departments bordering the Atlantic coast over the last weekend of the month of May Hail and rain fell abundantly causing run-off flooding. In the Vienne (86) department, the equivalent of one month of rain fell within three days. 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 11

12 (CCR, 2016, Source: Météo France, Underlying maps: ESRI, OpenStreetMap) Figure 9: Storms affecting western France- Map of cumulative rainfall and risk zones simulated by CCR Property damage: Most of the damage was concentrated in the Loire-Atlantique (44) and Vendée (85) departments. In the port city of Saint-Nazaire, the streets of the Penhoët quarter were inundated. The same was the case for Baule where the streets of the town center were flooded under 10 to 20 centimeters of water. Departments concerned: Loire-Atlantique (44), Charente-Maritime (17), Vendée (85), Deux-Sèvres (79), Vienne (86), Haute-Vienne (87) Most severely damaged municipalities: Saint-Nazaire (44), Saint-Cyr (86), La Baule (44) 2.5. STORMS AFFECTING NORMANDY AND THE LOIR-ET-CHER DEPARTMENT FROM MAY 27 TO 29, 2016 Characteristics: The rain and thunderstorm event was characterized by heavy rainfall. At Bagneux (41), 100 millimeters of rain fell in one and a half hours on Friday night. On the next day, the Normandy region was affected. Heavy rainfall rapidly gave rise to a number of floods at Bernay (27), Rouen (76), Grand Quevilly (76) and Bagneaux (41). 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 12

13 (CCR, 2016, Source: Météo France, Underlying maps: ESRI, OpenStreetMap) Figure 10: Storms affecting Normandy/Loir-et-Cher - Map of cumulative rainfall and risk zones simulated by CCR Property damage: Significant run-off resulted in the flooding of communication routes and several homes most notably in the Orne (61) department. In Baigneaux (41), homes were flooded with 20 centimeters of water. In the town of Grand-Quevilly (76), several shops in the commercial area had to be evacuated due to flooding. The streets of Rouen (76) and Bernay (27) were also flooded. Departments concerned: Orne (61), Eure (27), Seine-Maritime (76), Sarthe (72), Loir-et-Cher (41) Most severely damaged municipalities: Rouen (76), Bernay, (27) Waterways subject to overflowing: Iton 2.6. STORMS AFFECTING THE YONNE DEPARTMENT FROM MAY 27 TO 29, 2016 Characteristics: Adverse weather conditions affected the Yonne (89) department with a particularly violent rain and thunderstorm event erupting on the night of Saturday into Sunday. Consequently, 80 millimeters, or the equivalent of one and a half months of rain, fell within a few minutes. 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 13

14 (CCR, 2016, Source: Météo France, Underlying maps: ESRI, OpenStreetMap) Figure 11: Storms affecting the Yonne department- Map of cumulative rainfall and risk zones simulated by CCR Property damage: As a consequence to the rainfall, the Grand Ru river overflowed at Chemilly-sur- Yonne (89) inundating several homes and forcing residents to evacuate. Several communication routes were broken. Department concerned: Yonne (89) Most severely damaged municipalities: Chemilly-sur-Yonne (89) 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 14

15 3. Estimate of insured damages A model of the damages was produced on the basis of the hazard simulated by the CCR model and presented in the form of the maps included above. This initial estimate was made based on the situation at June 4, although the flood waters of the Seine had surpassed the Austerlitz station in Paris and the flood waters of the upstream tributaries, namely the Loing, Yonne and Marne, were subsiding. It should be noted that flood waters were continuing to rise in the downstream direction toward the Seine-Maritime (76) and Eure (27) departments which went on red alert for a number of hours the night of June 4. An update of the simulations will be necessary so as to take into account the geography of this region which is not included in the results presented above. The same applies to the Cher river flood which was not at its highest level. Table 1 presents the results of damage modeling for the seven simulated events. The damage is presented at market cost and includes non-motor damage as well as motor damage. With the information reported by its clients, CCR sharpened its vision of insured property damage that is expected to reach upwards of 1.2 billion in total. Table: Simulation results for the seven events of May-June 2016 (in euro millions) Event Dates Modeled cost ( m) Flooding of the Seine and Loire basins May 30 to June [ ] 1665 (*) Storms North Lorraine West May 25 to June 1 [ ] Yonne Normandy Center Total cost May 25 to June [ ] 1800 (*) (*) The central interval corresponds to [25%-75%] quantiles and the widest interval corresponds to [10%-90%] quantiles. Significant uncertainties persist. The following items of particular interest should be noted: the impact of business risks and in particular business interruption risks could be significant once consideration is given to the duration of the flooding of certain sectors; adjustments shall be made to take into account the municipalities considered in the exceptional meeting of the Inter-Ministerial Commission of Tuesday June 7, regarding the signature of the decree of recognition of a state of natural disaster by the Council of Ministers in its meeting of June 8; on June 7, approximately 1,000 municipalities were listed as having filed a request for recognition of a state of natural disaster; damage to goods stored in sub-levels are very difficult to estimate given the absence of insurance data for these insured valuables. 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 15

16 According to the results of the model, given a high case scenario, the amount of damages for the business sector could represent up to three quarters of total damages. These estimates take into consideration direct damages as well as a portion of business interruption losses. The average cost per municipality for this event is estimated at approximately 1 million which is considerably higher than the average cost recorded to date (approximately 110 thousand). This is due to the high value of insured property in the zones impacted by this event which represents approximately 3,000 billion in insured value and 10 million insured risks. 4. Impact of prevention measures and of crisis management The review of these events was the occasion to underscore the beneficial impact of prevention measures and of crisis management. Some of the most prominent examples of this are presented below ROLE OF FLOOD PREVENTION WORKS AND ESTIMATED BENEFITS The Seine is protected from flooding by several reservoir-lakes which were progressively created beginning in 1949 and whose role is to store significant volumes of water to decrease peak flows downstream from their location. The Marne reservoir-lake, put into service in 1974 and located upstream from the Seine-Marne junction near Vitry-le-François, is the largest of the reservoir-lakes with a storage capacity of almost 350 million cubic meters. The Seine reservoir-lake, located in the naturally damp region of Champagne, was put into service in It has a capacity of 208 million cubic meters. The Aube reservoir-lake, located in the same damp region of Champagne, near the town of Troyes, has a capacity of 170 million cubic meters. This is the most recent of the reservoir-lakes having been put into service in Lastly, the Pannecière reservoir-lake, located in the Morvan region, was put into service in 1949 and is adjacent to the Yonne river. This is the smallest of the reservoir-lakes with a maximum capacity of 80 million cubic meters. When the flooding occurred in May and June 2016, the lakes were in the process of filling, as is the case each year prior to summer so as to prepare for future low water levels. Thus, the fill rates at May 1, 2016 were 90.8% overall. Given the fact that May was a particularly wet month, the fill rates at June 1 were as follows: - Marne reservoir-lake: 96% of normal capacity; - Seine reservoir-lake: 93%; - Aube reservoir-lake: 98%; - Pannecière reservoir-lake: 99%. The precipitation that caused the exceptional flooding of the Seine fell mainly on the drainage basins located on the left bank downstream from the Seine-Yonne junction. In fact, the Loing, Yerres and Yvette basins were the primary basins affected by the rains. It was only when the water level stopped 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 16

17 rising, after the night of June 3, that the lakes began to fully play their role, enabling the waters to recede more quickly. Over the course of the event, the lakes enabled storage of up to 68 cubic meters per second on June 3, and a total of over 30 million cubic meters. The reservoir-lakes also enabled the reduction of 5 centimeters of the maximum level of the Seine in Paris on the evening of June 3 [source (in French): Seine Great Lakes, a territorial public establishment of the Seine basin, report on the management of the reservoir-lakes Tuesday June 7, 2016]. A new simulation of the event was conducted using the impact model developed by CCR and by correcting the flow of the Seine downstream from the last reservoir-lake. In summation, the benefit of a decrease in the peak level of the Seine of 50 to 70 cubic meters per second is presented in table 2. Table 2: Benefit of the effect of the reservoir-lakes on the peak level of the Seine-Loire flood Benefit of the action of the reservoir-lakes on the peak level of the flood of June 3, 2016 Effect on the downstream flow of the reservoir-lakes of m 3 /s on the Seine Benefit in millions [25%-75% quantiles] Relative benefit [32 82] [4% -6%] For this event, the estimated benefits appear to be quite limited in comparison to the overall cost of the flood. This is due to the fact that most of the damage was concentrated along the tributaries of the Seine that are not protected by the reservoir-lakes. Additionally, the flooding occurred downstream from the lakes, which were unable to fully perform their role as regards the flood's peak. The benefit would have been far greater for an event comparable to the flood of January Indeed, the flood of 1982 occurred in winter, at a time when the reservoir-lakes had more available storage capacity. Additionally, this flood originated upstream from the flood prevention works which were thus able to fully play their role EFFECT OF AMICABLE ACQUISITIONS Between 2004 and 2015, portions of the Bouillie-à-Blois spillway sector were acquired amicably using finances from the Major Natural Risk Prevention Fund (Fonds de prévention des risques naturels majeurs) in the amount of 20.8 million. The acquisition program is expected to continue until The total amount of the operation should reach 25 million with approximately 120 homes to be displaced. 06/28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 17

18 This sector experienced severe flooding of a meter of water during the recent flood event due to the overflow of the Cosson river. This program, initially launched to prevent the major flooding of the Loire, has already served the public interest as it saved approximately one hundred homes from being flooded and helped the flood waters to recede more quickly EFFECT OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT For numerous businesses, the floods at the end of May and beginning of June provided the opportunity to test their crisis management facilities by calling into action their business continuity plans. One particularly interesting example is the glass industries based in the municipality of Bagneaux-sur-Loing. As demonstrated by the map below, these industries were severely impacted by the overflow of the Loing and its canal and lost electrical service. Figure 13: Map of the spill zone simulated by CCR showing the municipality of Bagneaux-sur-Loing However, a rapid intervention enabled two sites, classified under the Seveso Directive, to be placed out of harms way and saved the ovens thereby avoiding heavy losses. Sources /28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 18

19 Météo France, Vigicrue network, Keraunos, La Chaine-Météo, catastrophes naturelles.net, Regional and national daily press /28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 19

20 Bibliography CETE Méditerranée (in French), Preparation of a major flood in the Paris region, AIRT "Démarche Îlede-France", juillet 2013, 61 p. Desarthe J., Moncoulon D., The Seine flood in îile-de-france. Historical analysis of the flood of 1910 and Modeling reference scenarios, Caisse Centrale de Réassurance, March 2016, 29 p. Moncoulon D., Labat D., Ardon J., Leblois E., Onfroy T., Poulard C., Aji S., Remy A., Quantin A., «Analysis of French insurance market exposure to floods : a stochastic model combining river overflow and surface runoff», Natural Hazard and Earth System Science, 14, 2014, p Reghezza-Zitt M. (in French), Is Paris sinking? Paris, Fayard, 2012, p. 171 SETEC, IIBRBS (in French), System for local protection in the Paris region. Hydraulic assessment and needs for reinforcement, 1998, Quoted by Reghezza-Zitt M., Is Paris sinking? Paris, Fayard, 2012, p /28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 20

21 This document and all the elements it contains (in particular texts, publications, images, photos and graphs or maps) are the exclusive property of CCR or of third parties who have expressly authorized their use. Any reproduction, redocument or use of all or any part of this document is prohibited except after obtaining prior written permission from CCR. The content of this document is provided strictly for information purposes only and has no contractual value. CCR shall not be held responsible for any direct or indirect loss or damage, regardless of the cause or nature, associated with this document and incurred in particular because of the use of or possible inaccuracy of the information contained in this document. R&D modeling team Public Reinsurance and Guaranty Funds Department June 28, /28/2016 R&D / Modeling Team Technical Studies Public Reinsurance & Guaranty Funds CCR 21