Weekly Market Report. Broker s insight

Transcription

1 Weekly Market Report Week 43 Tuesday 30th October 2012 by Nikos Papantonopoulos From Green Fields to Green Ships Broker s insight The market for MR vessels has nothing exci ng for one more week. The Atlan c rates are s ll poor a er the shortage of cargoes last weekend the only excep on came from Caribs where the TCE reached the level of USD 5,500/ day, around USD 1,000 higher than the previous week. Black sea region was slightly higher this week and cross-med voyages are s ll the most profitable trade for this tanker sector. Most of the owners are not keen to sail east, wai ng for the market to improve. Straits - Med/Cont route is firmer this week with TCE higher than USD 15,000/day. Although MR rates are weak on average, some good news came to the market from New York-listed Scorpio Tankers. The tanker owner for the first me disclosed their fuel consump on data in an effort to showcase the new impressive fuel efficiency achieved by their newly delivered vessels. M/E cons. STI Amber STI Coral Savings Variance % 13.5kn Ballast % 13.5kn Laden % Assuming that bunker prices will not only remain at current levels but likely climb higher during the following decade and taking an average price of say USD 700 per ton (380cst), the poten al gain for an eco MR vessel ranges from USD 4,900 to 6,300 per day. Even if the owner doesn't enjoy all this difference on the daily charter hire, the addi onal hire compared to a similar vessel of older design is typically around USD 2,500-3,500 per day higher and many charterers are keen to fix them even 2 years before their delivery date. On the other hand, taking into considera on the NB prices for these vessels (USD 32-33mil) and the fuel saving performance clause which is included in their charter par es, we conclude that we do not yet have a clear picture regarding this currently hot shipping debate. Parameters like bunker prices, evolu on of ship designs, demand for MR tankers in general as well as the size of the eco fleet compared to the old conven onal designs, are all going to influence the outcome of this equa on. In conclusion, 5-6 years ago the trend was for placing orders in green fields which promised to cover the lack of availability of rela vely prompt newbuilding slots by turning rice fields into modern and high spec shipbuilders. Today the newbuilding market has changed and as demand for new orders has reached only a small frac on of what it was in the past, we have efforts by shipbuilders now to increase demand through the promise of more efficient designs, pushing them as if they were pushing a new hybrid car model to a typical end consumer. Nevertheless, we may have an end result similar to the green field extravaganza, where market condi ons changed (market collapse of 2008) and le many of these fields forever green. The market may once again shi, as such evapora ng all of the extra earnings poten al promised by shipbuilders Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- ) With only the Capesize sector pushing up further this week, the dry bulk market has already showed signs of losing ground. The Atlan c basin seems to be the main problema c area for the me being showing a general lack in ac vity The BDI closed Tuesday (30/10/2012) at 1,043 points, down by 5 points compared to Monday s levels (29/10/2012) and at a decrease of 66 points compared to the previous Tuesday s levels (23/10/2012). Things have yet to shine in the tanker market as there has not been any notable rise in demand typically witnessed during the start of the winter season. The BDTI Monday (29/10/2012), was at 675, 5 points down and the BCTI at 658, a decrease of 7 points compared to the previous Monday s levels (22/10/2012). Sale & Purchase (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- ) There was some slight increase in ac vity this week in the SnP front, with price levels looking to be more compe ve in both the tanker and dry bulker segment. On the Tankers side, we had the sale of the Algarve (298,969dwt-blt 99 S. Korea) which was picked up by ese conversion buyers, namely Modec for a price of $ 35.9m. While on the dry bulker side, we had the sale of the Ma lde (160,013dwt-blt 97 S. Korea) which was reported sold for a price of $ 12.0m to Greek buyers. Newbuilding (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- ) Very slim ac vity this week in the newbuilding market with only focus being in the offshore and cruise ship sectors. Niche sectors con nue and will likely con nue to be the main focus for shipbuilders as the lack of interest for conven onal ship types holds amongst buyers. The recent financial report published by Scorpio tankers for the 3rd Quarter of 2012 has probably helped push the idea of eco designs further, however it s ll is a difficult posi on for current owners to make partly due to the effects it may cause in the market, but more likely due to the poten al benefit and return such an investment could generate in the long-term. This is the most significant point and is something that will be driven further as secondhand prices con nue their drop and offer a considerable discount compared to the current newbuilding prices. In terms of reported deals this week, the most notable order was that placed by US based Carnival Cruise Lines at Italy s Fincan eri Shipyard for a 135,000gt Cruise ship (4,000berths) as well as a 99,000gt Cruise ship (2,660berths) for delivery in Dec-2016 and Oct-2015 respec vely. Demoli on (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Firm+ ) Things con nued to firm yet again this week, as Bangladeshi and Chinese breakers tried to play catch up with the Indian and Pakistan markets increased there offered levels significantly. What is notable is that Bangladesh is s ll suffering from problems with regards to bank L/Cs and this most recent rise could end up being misleading as some of these most recent concluded deals could end falling apart and have to be renego ated. On the other hand Chinese breakers seemed to have rejuvenated their appe te for tonnage and as such could help boost the market further over the next couple of days as they heavily compete with the Indian Sub-Con nent in order to secure some of the most high profile candidates that surface in the market. Prices as such con nue to rise further this week, as wet tonnages noted levels of $/ldt and dry units were closing at about $/ldt.

2 Wet Market Dirty Clean Aframax Suezmax VLCC Vessel VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR Handy size Routes Week 43 Week ±% $/day $/day $/day $/day WS points Spot Rates WS points 265k AG-JAPAN 35 3, ,265-5% 21,243 18, k AG-USG 24-8, ,330 2% 1,597 2, k WAF-USG 45 22, ,996 0% 31,957 25, k MED-MED 65 15, ,572 4% 22,745 25, k WAF-USAC 63 10, ,906 0% 13,941 13, k AG-CHINA 73 20, ,449 0% 22,813 14,815 80k AG-EAST 93 13, ,237-3% 14,407 12,726 80k MED-MED 78 9, ,081 7% 14,069 13,577 80k UKC-UKC 85 14, ,950 0% 18,452 18,604 70k CARIBS-USG , ,621 14% 11,988 8,240 75k AG-JAPAN , ,536 0% 8,812 10,467 55k AG-JAPAN , ,145 0% 8,712 7,768 37K UKC-USAC 113 5, ,012-4% 8,818 11,022 30K MED-MED , ,166 3% 17,589 18,458 55K UKC-USG , ,011-6% 15,711 11,266 55K MED-USG , ,266-6% 13,911 9,676 50k CARIBS-USAC 103 7, ,168-9% 13,057 10,700 $/day TC Rates Week 43 Week 42 ±% Diff k 1yr TC 22,000 22, % 0 22,529 25, k 3yr TC 27,000 27, % 0 27,299 31, k 1yr TC 17,000 17, % 0 17,657 19, k 3yr TC 21,500 21, % 0 21,072 23, k 1yr TC 14,000 14, % 0 13,826 15, k 3yr TC 16,250 16, % 0 16,107 18,335 75k 1yr TC 14,000 13, % ,029 14,995 75k 3yr TC 14,500 14, % 0 14,276 16,263 52k 1yr TC 13,250 13, % ,837 13,918 52k 3yr TC 14,500 14, % 0 14,659 14,738 36k 1yr TC 12,750 12, % 0 12,558 12,471 36k 3yr TC 13,750 13, % 0 13,363 13,412 WS points WS points VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Tankers Vessel 5yrs old MR Indicative Period Charters - 24mos -'Amfitriti' ,000dwt - - $ 13,500/day - Shell - 6+6mos - 'Eagle Melbourne' ,000dwt - DEL WEST - $ 11,700-12,750/day - Koch TD3 TD5 TD8 TD4 TC2 TC4 TC6 TC1 DIRTY - WS RATES CLEAN - WS RATES Oct-12 Sep-12 ±% KT DH % KT DH % KT DH % KT DH % KT DH % Chartering There has s ll been no sign of the seasonal revitalising of the VLCC market with Eastbound voyages s ll so ening and Westbound voyages remaining at rela vely so levels. It looks as though it will be a fairly tough market this winter as we enter into November, while at the same me it could be likely that the overcapacity issue will put so much pressure on the market preven ng any real escape in the fourth quarter of Things looked slightly more posi ve in the Black Sea/Med region for Suezmaxes, were rates started to slowly increase on the back of ho er ac vity thanks to the increased delays in the Turkish straits as well as more posi ve sen ment filtering through from the WAF market. There is s ll a long way to go and we haven't yet started to see a strong increase in enquiries for November. The Aframax market showed considerable life in the Black Sea/Med region supported by the delays in the Turkish straits as well as the firm increase in fresh inquiries coming in this week. With an cipa on for further demand coming in from charterers over the next couple of days and tonnage lists star ng to look somewhat thinner, expecta ons are now for further rises in rates over the next couple of days. Things also looked fairly strong in the Caribs market were we witnessed large gains in freight rates, though things look now to have stabilised at the current levels. Sale & Purchase In the VLCC segment this week, we had the sale of the Algarve (298,969dwt-blt 99 S. Korea) which was picked up by ese conversion buyers, namely Modec for a price of $ 35.9m with the inten on of it being converted into an FPSO. Also noteworthy was the reported sale of the S. Korean built MR tanker Ada (45,974dwt-blt 97 China) which went to Far Eastern buyers for a price of xs $ 15.0m basis that the vessel is suitable for carriage of methanol. Intermodal Research 31/10/2012 2

3 Dry Market Baltic Indices Week 43 Week 42 26/10/ /10/2012 Point ±% Diff Index $/day Index $/day Index Index BDI 1,049 1, % ,549 BCI 2,451 $16,842 2,217 $14, % 234 1,484 2,237 BPI 804 $6, $7, % ,749 BSI 699 $7, $7, % ,377 BHSI 434 $6, $6, % Capesize Panamax Supramax Handymax Handysize Period $/day Week Week ±% Diff K 6mnt TC 18,000 17,750 1% ,331 18, K 1yr TC 14,500 14,500 0% 0 14,127 17, K 3yr TC 14,500 14,500 0% 0 15,578 17,599 76K 6mnt TC 9,125 9,625-5% ,421 17,238 76K 1yr TC 8,750 9,000-3% ,241 14,863 76K 3yr TC 9,750 10,000-3% ,253 14,500 55K 6mnt TC 9,750 10,000-3% ,578 15,587 55K 1yr TC 9,250 9,500-3% ,636 14,308 55K 3yr TC 10,250 10,500-2% ,456 14,046 45k 6mnt TC 8,125 8,250-2% ,715 13,416 45k 1yr TC 8,000 8,250-3% ,107 12,450 45k 3yr TC 8,750 9,000-3% ,810 12,403 30K 6mnt TC 8,000 8,250-3% ,476 11,712 30K 1yr TC 8,325 8,500-2% ,593 11,787 30K 3yr TC 9,000 9,250-3% ,607 12,044 Chartering With iron ore ac vity con nuing to be hot for yet another week from both Brazil and Australia, Capesize rates found fer le ground for yet another boost in freight levels. This recent rise in demand for iron ore seems to be mainly driven by the promise of the upcoming s mulus measures from the Chinese government as well as the rela vely so er commodity prices. This however indicates that this rise may only be temporary as it is mainly driven by specula on rather than on market fundamentals. At the same me the expected newbuilding deliveries for the remainder of the year will only dampen any real recovery. It was a split market this week for Panamaxes, with the Atlan c basin rapidly losing ground as open stems got decreased rapidly. The Pacific seemed to be holding more on the posi ve side though overall rates ended the week fairly steady. There was increased demand and increased ac vity compared to a week prior, however the increasing influx of balasters has kept any real improvement under control. It seems as though things will likely be worse by the end of this week, as the Atlan c basin is expected to so en further dampening any gains hoped to be seen in the Pacific. Index $/day 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Baltic Indices BCI BPI BSI BHSI BDI Average T/C Rates AVR 4TC BCI AVR 4TC BPI AVR 5TC BSI AVR 6TC BHSI Indicative Market Values ($ Million) - Bulk Carriers Vessel 5 yrs old Indicative Period Charters - 11/13 mos - 'Ivs Cabernet' ,173dwt - dely Far East ppt - $ 13,750/day - Classic Maritime - 3/5 mos - 'Prabhu Lal' ,491dwt - dely Lanshan spot - $ 8,500/day - cnr Oct-12 Sep-12 ±% k % K % k % K % Sale & Purchase In the Capesize sector we had the sale of the Ma lde (160,013dwt-blt 97 S. Korea) which was reported sold for a price of $ 12.0m to Greek buyers. While the Panamax Brave Star (73,992dwt-blt 00 ) is said to be sold to S. Korean buyers at a price of about $ 10.8m. Overall freight levels for both Supras and Handies were heading south again this week especially in the Atlan c were we witnessed a lack of interest in from US Gulf region knocking down any efforts made by owners to sustain the previous levels. Things were holding slightly be er in the Pacific were fresh inquiries coming out of India and Indonesia helped keep things busy and sustain posi on lists at fairly good levels. Intermodal Research 31/10/2012 3

4 Secondhand Sales Tankers Size Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Hull Price Buyers Comments VLCC ALGARVE 298, DAEWOO HEAVY INDUSTRIE, S. Korea MAN-B&W Sep-14 DH $ 35.9m ese (Modec) convers ion to FPSO VLCC TI GUARDIAN 290, MITSUBISHI NAGASAKI, Mits ubishi May-13 DH undisclos ed Greek MR HIGHWIND 46, DAEDONG SHIPBUILDING -, S. Korea B&W Apr-14 DH $ 12.2m Chinese (Sinoenergy) epoxy coated MR ADA 45, DALIAN SHIPYARD CO LTD, China B&W Mar-17 DH xs $ 15.0m (Far Eastern) suitable for methanol PROD/ CHEM IRENE 11, KURINOURA DOCKYARD CO, B&W Jan-15 DH $ 8.5m Norwegian (Seatrans) StSt tanks DONGFANG PROD/ CHEM MOUNT TIANZHU 9, SHIPBUILDING, China MaK Jan-06 DH $ 7.8m Hong Kong based (Tiger Shpg) sold at auction in Singapore, epoxy coated PROD/ CHEM EASTERN EUREKA 8, SHIN KURUSHIMA IMABARI, B&W Aug-14 DH $ 6.0m Indones ian StSt tanks PROD/ CHEM TENA 5, CELIKTEKNE TUZLA, Turkey MAN-B&W Jan-16 DH $ 6.5m Russ ian epoxy phenguard coated Bulk Carriers Size Name Dwt Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments CAPE MATILDE 160, HYUNDAI HEAVY INDS - U, S. Korea MAN-B&W Sep-16 $ 12.0m Greek CAPE RUBIN ACE 151, POST PMAX TSUNEISHI ZHOUSHAN SS , PMAX BRAVE STAR 73, HMAX ROGUE 42, NKK CORP - TSU, TSUNEISHI ZHOUSHAN HUL, China TSUNEISHI SHBLDG - FUK, OSHIMA SHIPBUILDING, B&W Jul-16 $ 10.5m Greek MAN-B&W $ 24.8m Taiwanese (Wisdom Marine Lines) MAN-B&W Mar-15 $ 10.8m S. Korean Sulzer Mar-16 4 X 25t CRANES $ 5.8m undisclosed HANDY CLIPPER GLORY 30, SHANHAIGUAN SHIPYARD, China MAN-B&W Jan-17 4 X 30t CRANES $ 11.5m Greek HANDY ROYAL RUBY 27, MITSUI TAMANO, B&W Dec-13 4 X 25t CRANES $ 2.8m Chinese Intermodal Research 31/10/2012 4

5 Secondhand Sales Containers Size Name Teu Built Yard M/E SS due Gear Price Buyers Comments ATLANTIS 2 X 40t FEEDER APL MENDOZA SHIPYARD PTE, B&W Dec-12 $ 3.5m Indonesian CRANES Singapore FEEDER CASTOR PATTJE, Netherlands MaK Mar-16 $ 0.9m undisclosed via auction in Malta FEEDER AMSTELDIEP PATTJE, Netherlands MaK Mar-16 $ 0.9m undisclosed via auction in Malta Intermodal Research 31/10/2012 5

6 Demoli on Market Wet Dry Indicative Demolition Prices ($/ldt) Markets Week Week ±% Bangladesh % India % Pakistan % China % Bangladesh % India % Pakistan % China % Things con nued to firm yet again this week, as Bangladeshi and Chinese breakers tried to play catch up with the Indian and Pakistan markets increased there offered levels significantly. What is notable is that Bangladesh is s ll suffering from problems with regards to bank L/Cs and this most recent rise could end up being misleading as some of these most recent concluded deals could end falling apart and have to be renego ated. On the other hand Chinese breakers seemed to have rejuvenated their appe te for tonnage and as such could help boost the market further over the next couple of days as they heavily compete with the Indian Sub-Con nent in order to secure some of the most high profile candidates that surface in the market. Prices as such con nue to rise further this week, as wet tonnages noted levels of $/ ldt and dry units were closing at about $/ldt. Most notable this week was the price paid by Indian breakers for the general cargo vessel Thor Jupiter (37,049dwt-9,482ldt-blt 86) which reportedly received a price of around $ 436/Ldt. Wet Demolition Prices Dry Demolition Prices 550 Bangladesh India Pakistan China 500 Bangladesh India Pakistan China $/ldt $/ldt Demolition Sales Name Size Ldt Built Yard Type $/ldt Breakers Comments DORADO 304,707 35, DAEWOO, S. Korea TANKER $ 435/Ldt Pakistani ONE EMERALD 261,068 32, SASEBO, TANKER $ 435/Ldt Pakistani MELLOW WIND 170,164 20, DAEWOO, S. Korea BULKER $ 420/Ldt Indian AESA PUERTO REAL, GLOBE UNITY 147,067 24, BULKER $ 380/Ldt Chinese Spain APJ MAHALAXMI 67,359 11, IMABARI, BULKER $ 430/Ldt Indian HUA JIN CHUN 64,930 12, HASHIHAMA, BULKER $ 342/Ldt Chinese KOYO MIHARA, TCT HOPE 61,659 11, BULKER $ 431/Ldt Indian XINTONGHAI 61,335 12, OSHIMA, TANKER $ 340/Ldt Chinese incl 600 T bunkers upon delivery CHINA SHIPBLDG, PENG YAN 60,050 12, BULKER $ 340/Ldt Chinese Chinese Taipei THOR JUPITER 37,049 9, HYUNDAI, S. Korea GC $ 436/Ldt Ïndian GEORGIA S 30,187 8, SASEBO, BULKER $ 350/Ldt Chinese self discharger BLIDA 20,586 20, KANASASHI, BULKER $ 432/Ldt Indian KHOLMSK 16,733 5, SWAN HUNTER, U. K. BULKER $ 425/Ldt Indian Intermodal Research 31/10/2012 6

7 Newbuilding Market Bulkers Tankers Gas Indicative Newbuilding Prices (million$) Vessel Week Week ±% Capesize 170k % Panamax 78k % Supramax 57k % Handysize 30k % VLCC 300k % Suezmax 160k % Aframax 115k % LR1 75k % MR 52k % LPG M3 80k % LPG M3 52k % LPG M3 23k % Very slim ac vity this week in the newbuilding market with only focus being in the offshore and cruise ship sectors. Niche sectors con nue and will likely con nue to be the main focus for shipbuilders as the lack of interest for conven onal ship types holds amongst buyers. The recent financial report published by Scorpio tankers for the 3rd Quarter of 2012 has probably helped push the idea of eco designs further, however it s ll is a difficult posi on for current owners to make partly due to the effects it may cause in the market, but more likely due to the poten al benefit and return such an investment could generate in the long-term. This is the most significant point and is something that will be driven further as secondhand prices con nue their drop and offer a considerable discount compared to the current newbuilding prices. The most noteworthy order reported this week is that placed by US based Carnival Cruise Lines at Italy s Fincan eri Shipyard for a 135,000gt Cruise ship (4,000berths) as well as a 99,000gt Cruise ship (2,660berths) for delivery in Dec-2016 and Oct-2015 respec vely. Tankers Newbuilding Prices (m$) Bulk Carriers Newbuilding Prices (m$) million $ VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR million $ Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Newbuilding Orders Units Type Size Yard Delivery Buyer Price Comments 1 Cruise 135,000 grt Fincantieri, Italy 12/2016 US based (Carnival Cruise) undisclosed 4,000 berths 1 Cruise 99,000 grt Fincantieri, Italy 10/2015 US based (Carnival Cruise) undisclosed 2,660 berths 4 PSV 4,500 dwt Sao Miguel SY, Brazil 06-12/2014 Brazilian (Brevante Offshore) $ 60.0m Intermodal Research 31/10/2012 7

8 Currencies Stock Exchange Data Market Data 26-Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct-12 W-O-W Change % 10year US Bond % S&P 500 1, , , , , % Nasdaq 2, , , , , % Dow Jones 13, , , , , % FTSE 100 5, , , , , % FTSE All-Share UK 3, , , , , % CAC40 3, , , , , % Xetra Dax 7, , , , , % Nikkei 8, , , , , % Hang Seng 21, , , , % Dow Jones % $ / % $ / % / % / $ % $ / Au$ % $ / NoK % $ / SFr % Yuan / $ % Won / $ 1, , , , , % $ INDEX % World Economy News Hurricane Sandy s economic toll is poised to exceed $20 billion a er the biggest Atlan c storm slammed into the Eastern U.S., damaging homes and offices and flooding subways in America s most populated city. The total would include insured losses of about $7 billion to $8 billion, said Charles Watson, research and development director at Kine c Analysis Corp., a hazard-research company in Silver Spring, Maryland. Much of the remaining tab will be picked up by ci es and states to repair infrastructure, such as New York City s subways and tunnels, he said. (Bloomberg) Commodi es & Financials oil 100 MDO 380cst 180cst Basic Commodities Weekly Summary Oil WTI $ Oil Brent $ Gold $ 1,760 1,740 1,720 gold 1,700 1,680 1,660 Bunker Prices W-O-W 26-Oct Oct-12 Change % Rotterdam % Houston 1, , % Singapore % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Energy & Commodi es Crude oil and fuel prices edged down a er hurricane Sandy hit the US east coast closing refineries as well as ports and terminals, raising the specter of reduced demand. Petrol, or gasoline, prices, which had jumped on Monday ahead of the arrival of one of the biggest storms to hit the US, also fell on profit-taking on expecta ons of lower consump on a er the closure of roads and airports. Many of the ports and crude terminals on the east coast, where Sandy landed, shut down, while there were also reports of damage to oil pipelines. (Financial Times) Company Maritime Stock Data Stock W-O-W Curr. 26-Oct Oct-12 Exchange Change % Max 43wk Min 43wk AEGEAN MARINE PETROL NTWK NYSE USD % BALTIC TRADING NYSE USD % BOX SHIPS INC NYSE USD % CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS LP NASDAQ USD % COSTAMARE INC NYSE USD % DANAOS CORPORATION NYSE USD % DIANA SHIPPING NYSE USD % DRYSHIPS INC NASDAQ USD % EAGLE BULK SHIPPING NASDAQ USD % EUROSEAS LTD. NASDAQ USD % EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS NYSE USD % FREESEAS INC NASDAQ USD % GENCO SHIPPING NYSE USD % GLOBUS MARITIME LIMITED NASDAQ USD % GOLDENPORT HOLDINGS INC LONDON GBX % HELLENIC CARRIERS LIMITED LONDON GBX % NAVIOS MARITIME ACQUISITIONS NYSE USD % NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS NYSE USD % NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS LP NYSE USD % NEWLEAD HOLDINGS LTD NASDAQ USD % PARAGON SHIPPING INC. NYSE USD % SAFE BULKERS INC NYSE USD % SEANERGY MARITIME HOLDINGS CORP NASDAQ USD % STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP NASDAQ USD % STEALTHGAS INC NASDAQ USD % TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION NYSE USD % TOP SHIPS INC NASDAQ USD % Finance News Textbooks insist that when governments start pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into their economies, the necessary end result is infla on, or even hyperinfla on. The fact that this has not happened in a period when quan ta ve easing has become an everyday occurrence is an obvious anomaly. Those of a pragma c disposi on, who judge policy not by its conformity to the nostrums of some defunct economist, but purely on whether or not it works, will happily leave it at that. But diehard adherents of the quan ty theory of money maintain that a s ng in the tail is unavoidable, and that prices must eventually respond to the decision to put the prin ng presses into overdrive. So what are we to make of the forecasts for shipping infla on produced by Moore Stephens, which es mate price levels will go up 3% both this year and next? If that is about the level of the global rate of infla on insofar as that concept makes any sense then the changes will be more or less neutral in real rather than nominal terms. If the Milton Friedman fan club is right, the prognosis is likely to prove meaningless. (Lloyds List) The informa on contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such informa on to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the produc on of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the informa on and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior wri en authoriza on of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. Compiled by Intermodal Research & Valua ons Department Mr George Lazaridis research@intermodal.gr On behalf of Intermodal Sale & Purchase, Newbuilding and Chartering Departments snp@intermodal.gr, tankers@intermodal.gr, dry@intermodal.gr