Weekly Market Report

Transcription

1 Week 18 Tuesday 5th May 29 Weekly Market Report Sale & Purchase Newbuilding Secondhand Demolition Chartering World Economy News US bank shares surged on Monday as investors bet that some of the country s largest institutions will have to raise less capital than previously feared after this week s release of the government s stress tests. The banks believed to have been told by regulators to shore up their balance sheets, such as Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo, led the sector higher amid investor optimism that their capital needs will be manageable. The rally in the financial sector, coupled with positive US housing data, helped the stock market higher and created a benign backdrop for the last, tense hours of negotiations between bank executives and regulators over the tests. (Financial Times) Energy & Commodities Oil prices dipped on Tuesday after rising by more than $1 in the previous session while base metals were mixed and gold traded above the $9 level. In energy markets, ICE June Brent slipped 1 cents lower to $54.48 a barrel while Nymex June West Texas Intermediate eased 8 cents to $54.43 a barrel, helped by signs of improvement in leading economic indicators and recent gains for stock markets. Tom Pawlicki of MF Global said oil prices were likely to encounter resistance around the $55 per barrel level due to high stock levels and demand weakness. US inventories have risen 17.1% year-on-year and are at their highest levels since 199. By the same token, US demand is down 1.9% year-on-year and is at its lowest level since 1999 said Mr Pawlicki who also noted that while stock levels in Asia were not quite as inflated, demand was equally anemic. Traders attention has also focused on whether Opec might decide to cut supplies further at the next meeting of the cartel on May 28. (Financial Times) Shipping News Singapore shares continued to rise at midday today on the back of an Asian stock surge on Monday, which was triggered by a rally in US stocks and growing sentiment that the worst of the downturn is almost over. All the top-2 stocks at the Singapore Exchange posted gains, including shares of maritime companies. Commodity trader Noble, one of the larger charterers of dry bulk ships, rose 4% as did Star Cruises, which shrugged off earlier concerns about swine flu. Neptune Orient Lines also rose more than 4%, while shipyard groups Keppel, SembCorp Marine, Cosco Corp and Yangzijiang powered ahead; SembCorp rose 4.5%, for example. Share prices rose to the highest levels in seven months. The Hong Kong and Taiwan bourses also gained more than 5% yesterday, while prices at Shanghai stock exchange increased by more than 3%. Analysts attributed the buoyancy in share prices to positive macro factors, including the injection of liquidity into the Asian economies and visible indications of rising manufacturing output in China. (Fairplay) Intermodal Research 1 Chartering (Wet: Stable / Dry: Stable) For the past week, on the Dry market, the BDI was on Friday (1/5/29) 1,86, -67 points down from end of previous week s levels. On the Wet market, the BDTI on Friday (1/5/29) was 476, - 19 points down and the BCTI at 424, +48 points up from end of previous week s levels. Sale & Purchase (Wet: Weaker / Dry: Stable) The tanker S&P market has a couple of deals to show for the past week: the DH suezmax Sea Grace (149,921dwt-built 22) was sold as a purchase option to Nordic American Tankers for 57$m and Eitzen Chemical sold en bloc 3 resale MR chemical tankers of 46,dwt each from Brodogradiliste trogi, Croatia with delivery 2q29 up to 4q21 to Laurin Maritime on a novation basis for 124$m total. The dry S&P market continues to be very active, this week: the capesize Star Europe (17,698dwt-built 1986) was sold for 9$m, the panamax Island Globe (73,119dwt-built 1995) was acquired by Guangdong Yudean Shipping for 19$m, the supramax Nord Whale (5,354dwtbuilt 24) was purchased by Greeks for 24.5$m, the handymax Dubai Guardian (47,271dwt-built 1997) fetched 17$m, the handysize Spar Emerald (34,97dwt-built 1987) was purchased by Turks for 6.7 $m and the Khloud F (23,418dwt-built 1982) fetched 2.9$m. Newbuilding (Wet: Weaker / Dry: Weaker) The Newbuilding market has almost no activity to show for another week. The lack of new orders starts to create liquidity problems to shipyards. On the other hand existing orders remain relatively well protected, as cancellations prove very hard to achieve. This week CNOOC ordered 2 MSV of 4,dwt each from Wuchang Shipyard with delivery 211/212 for an undisclosed price. Demolition (Wet: Weaker / Dry: Weaker) The demolition market remains very quiet for another week. Although supply tonnage is growing, demand remains very low, and buyers seem unwilling to enter negotiations. This week Indian breakers have acquired the handysize bulker Lake Superior (3,67dwt-7,57ldtbuilt 1982) for 23$/ldt and the tweendecker Kriola (5,657dwt- 3,412ldt-built 1975) for 235$/ldt. Also, Chinese breakers have acquired the panamax bulker Great Zhejiang (65,44dwt-17,9ldtbuilt 1984) for 224$/ldt, included 8tns ROB and the mini bulk Monring Prince (13,91dwt-12,483ldt-built 1979) for 21$/ldt. There are no sales reported in Bangladesh and Pakistan.

2 Wet Market VLCC Suez max Aframax Clean Dirty Vessel VLCC Suez max Aframax Panamax MR Handy size Routes WS points Week 18 Spot Rates WS points Week 17 1q29 1q28 265k AG-JAPAN 3 18, ,63-9% 49,66 14,17 28k AG-USG 23 12, ,374-8% 39,143 74,14 26k WAF-USG 4 35, ,926-17% 62,221 81,759 13k MED-MED 7 32, ,273 17% 45,431 67,935 13k WAF-USAC 58 23, ,87 % 4,935 49,138 13k AG-CHINA 6 26, ,833 % 32,398 45,13 8k AG-EAST 7 16, ,519 % 22,427 27,78 8k MED-MED 7 15, ,841 11% 24,336 43,13 8k UKC-UKC 65 4, ,155-19% 28,51 45,839 7k CARIBS-USG 65 9, ,58-4% 25,8 25,584 75k AG-JAPAN 58 8, ,694 5% 22,52 23,39 55k AG-JAPAN 63 6,85 6 5,63 5% 2,212 22,433 37K UKC-USAC , ,197 35% 14,314 22,842 3K MED-MED 9 4, ,635 6% 14,416 23,935 55K UKC-USG 7 9, ,74 % 24,232 31,433 55K MED-USG 7 8, ,945 % 22,675 29,5 5k CARIBS-USAC 65 5, ,433-7% 19,393 22,287 TC Rates ±% Week 18 Week 17 ±% k 1yr TC 38,25 38,25.% 5,472 73,798 55,798 3k 3yr TC 4,2 4,2.% 43,756 58,844 48,585 15k 1yr TC 32,25 32,25.% 37,917 47,442 44,72 15k 3yr TC 3,7 3,7.% 34,839 41,123 38,777 15k 1yr TC 18,75 18,75.% 24,556 36,43 33,394 15k 3yr TC 19,2 19,2.% 24,297 3,7 29,83 7k 1yr TC 19,25 19,25.% 23,75 29,471 29,567 7k 3yr TC 21,2 21,2.% 22,978 26,686 27,113 45k 1yr TC 16,75 16,75.% 18,472 23,731 26,154 45k 3yr TC 17,2 17,2.% 18,325 22,527 23,488 36k 1yr TC 15,25 15,25.% 17,444 22,22 23,519 36k 3yr TC 15,2 15,2.% 17,33 2,585 21,517 WS points WS points Jan Jan-7 2-Mar-7 2-Mar-7 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5-Jan-7 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 5-Jan-7 2-May-7 5-Mar-7 2-May-7 5-Mar-7 TD3 TD8 2-Jul-7 2-Jul-7 2-Sep-7 2-Sep-7 TD5 TD4 2-Nov-7 2-Nov-7 2-Jan-8 2-Jan-8 2-Mar-8 TC2 TC4 TC6 TC1 5-May-7 5-May-7 2-Mar-8 2-May-8 2-May-8 2-Jul-8 2-Jul-8 2-Sep-8 2-Sep-8 2-Nov-8 2-Nov-8 DIRTY - WS RATES 2-Jan-9 2-Mar-9 2-May-9 CLEAN - WS RATES 2-Jan-9 2-Mar-9 2-May-9 Tankers 1YR TC RATES VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR 5-Jul-7 5-Sep-7 5-Nov-7 5-Jan-8 5-Mar-8 5-May-8 5-Jul-8 5-Sep-8 5-Nov-8 5-Jan-9 5-Mar-9 5-May-9 Tankers 3YR TC RATES VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR 5-Jul-7 5-Sep-7 5-Nov-7 5-Jan-8 5-Mar-8 5-May-8 5-Jul-8 5-Sep-8 5-Nov-8 5-Jan-9 5-Mar-9 5-May-9 $m Jan-8 1-Feb-8 Tankers SH Values (5yrs) VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR 1-Mar-8 1-Apr-8 1-May-8 1-Jun-8 1-Jul-8 1-Aug-8 1-Sep-8 1-Oct-8 1-Nov-8 1-Dec-8 1-Jan-9 1-Feb-9 1-Mar-9 1-Apr-9 1-May-9 Intermodal Research 2 The Tankers Sale and Purchase market has some limited activity to show for the past week. The DH suezmax Sea Grace (149,921dwt-built 22) was sold as a purchase option to Nordic American Tankers for 57$m. Furthermore, Eitzen Chemical has sold en bloc 3 resale MR chemical tankers of 46,dwt each from Brodogradiliste trogi, Croatia with delivery 2q29 up to 4q21 to Laurin Maritime on a novation basis for 124 $m total. On the small tankers side, the DH Toei Maru (6,227dwt-built 25) was sold for 16.5$m

3 Dry Market $m BDI 1,86 1,873-4% 1,838 6,663 7,321 BCI 2,376 22,194 2,494 23,551-5% 1,624 9,577 1,172 BPI 1,556 12,537 1,662 13,436-6% 79 6,342 7,283 BSI 1,43 15,57 1,435 15,16 % 661 4,225 4,788 BHSI 694 9, ,98 % 529 2,257 2,469 Handysize Handymax Supramax Panamax Capesize Baltic Indices Week 18 Week 17 1/5/29 24/4/29 ±% Index Index Index Index Index Week 18 Period Week 17 ±% K 6mnt TC 26,75 25,75 4% 25,29 117,43 118,66 17K 1yr TC 24,2 24,7-2% 25, ,729 17,118 17K 3yr TC 22,75 21,25 7% 23,971 82,429 76,58 7K 6mnt TC 15,7 16,325-4% 13,928 57,623 58,996 7K 1yr TC 13,75 14,5-5% 13,757 55,887 52,567 7K 3yr TC 14,2 14,2 % 14,582 44,556 39,974 52K 6mnt TC 15,25 15,25 % 12,15 47,159 48,822 52K 1yr TC 12,7 13,2-4% 11,832 45,71 45,92 52K 3yr TC 12,5 12,5 % 12,494 34,38 34, 45k 6mnt TC 13,2 12,95 2% 1,347 41,681 43,639 45k 1yr TC 1,75 11,25-4% 1,338 38,923 4,12 45k 3yr TC 1,7 11,2-4% 11,3 28,431 29,63 3K 6mnt TC 1,75 11,25-4% 8,853 3,547 31,596 3K 1yr TC 9,7 9,95-3% 8,876 29,686 28,32 3K 3yr TC 9,75 1, -3% 1,68 22,87 22,113 1-Jan-8 1-Feb-8 1-Mar-8 Bulk Carriers SH Values (5yrs) Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize 1-Apr-8 1-May-8 1-Jun-8 1-Jul-8 1-Aug-8 1-Sep-8 1-Oct-8 1-Nov-8 1-Dec-8 1-Jan-9 1-Feb-9 1-Mar-9 1-Apr-9 1-May-9 Finally, the mini bulk Sun Frontier (9,651dwt-built 1997) was sold for 6.5$m and the Amsterdam (6,726dwt-built 1985) fetched 1.5$m. Intermodal Research 3 Index 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 2-Jan-6 24, 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, 2-Jan-6 2-Apr-6 2-Apr-6 2-Jul-6 2-Jul-6 BCI BPI BSI BHSI BDI 2-Oct-6 2-Oct-6 2-Jan-7 AVR 4TC BCI AVR 5TC BSI 2-Jan-7 2-Apr-7 2-Apr-7 2-Jul-7 2-Jul-7 2-Oct-7 2-Jan-8 2-Apr-8 2-Jul-8 2-Oct-8 Baltic Indices 2-Jan-9 2-Apr-9 Average T/C Rates for Baltic Indices AVR 4TC BPI AVR 6TC BHSI 2-Oct-7 2-Jan-8 2-Apr-8 2-Jul-8 2-Oct-8 2-Jan-9 2-Apr-9 Dry Bulkers 1 Year Period Rates Capesize Panamax Handymax Supramax Handysize 21, 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, 5-Jan-7 5-Mar-7 5-May-7 5-Jul-7 5-Sep-7 5-Nov-7 5-Jan-8 5-Mar-8 5-May-8 5-Jul-8 5-Sep-8 5-Nov-8 5-Jan-9 5-Mar-9 5-May-9 Dry Bulkers 3 Year Period Rates Capesize Panamax Handymax Supramax Handysize 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 5-Jan-7 5-Mar-7 5-May-7 5-Jul-7 5-Sep-7 5-Nov-7 5-Jan-8 5-Mar-8 5-May-8 5-Jul-8 5-Sep-8 5-Nov-8 5-Jan-9 5-Mar-9 5-May-9 The Dry Bulkers Sale and Purchase market continues to show high levels of activity, with several deals concluded in the past week. The capesize Star Europe (17,698dwt-built 1986) was sold for 9$m. The panamax Island Globe (73,119dwtbuilt 1995) was acquired by Guangdong Yudean Shipping for 19$m. Back in November, the similar vessel Endeavour II (7,29dwt-built 1994) was sold to Viken for 16-17$m. In the supramax sector, the modern Nord Whale (5,354dwt-built 24) was purchased by Greeks for 24.5$m. Beginning of April, the very similar Nord Ocean (52,441dwt-built 23) was sold to Akmar for 24$m and in November 28 the similar Lord (52,54dwt-built 24) was sold for 22-23$m. Moreover, the handymax Dubai Guardian (47,271dwt-built 1997) fetched 17$m and the woodchip carrier Mississippi 89 (42,651dwt-built 1989) was sold for 4.1$m. In the handysize sector, the Spar Emerald (34,97dwt-built 1987) was purchased by Turks for 6.7$m, the Maritime Friendship (29,135dwtbuilt 1984) was acquired by Greeks for 4.3$m, the Southgate (25,417dwt-built 1982) was also acquired by Greeks for 2.1$m, the Khloud F (23,418dwt-built 1982) fetched 2.9$m and the Gracius (22,172dwt-built 1981) was sold for 1.9$m.

4 Intermodal Research 4 Secondhand Sales

5 New Building Market million $ Jul-6 1-Sep-6 1-Nov-6 Bulkers Tankers Gas Tankers NB Prices (m$) VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR 1-Jan-7 1-Mar-7 1-May-7 1-Jul-7 1-Sep-7 1-Nov-7 1-Jan-8 1-Mar-8 1-May-8 1-Jul-8 1-Sep-8 1-Nov-8 1-Jan-9 1-Mar-9 1-May-9 Indicative Newbuilding Prices (million$) Vessel Week Week ±% Capesize 17k % Panamax 75k % Supramax 57k % Handysize 3k % VLCC 3k % Suezmax 15k % Aframax 11k % LR1 7k % MR 47k % LPG M3 75k % LPG M3 52k % LPG M3 23k % Please note that due to the lack of new newbuilding orders in most of the above sectors, the prices are estimates. million $ Jul-6 1-Sep-6 1-Nov-6 Bulk Carriers NB Prices (m$) Capes ize Panamax Supramax Handys ize 1-Jan-7 1-Mar-7 1-May-7 1-Jul-7 1-Sep-7 1-Nov-7 1-Jan-8 1-Mar-8 1-May-8 1-Jul-8 1-Sep-8 1-Nov-8 The Newbuilding market has almost no activity to show for another week. The lack of new orders starts to create liquidity problems to shipyards. On the other hand existing orders remain relatively well protected, as cancellations prove very hard to achieve. This week the only new orders reported are: 1-Jan-9 1-Mar-9 1-May-9 Intermodal Research 5

6 Demolition Market The demolition market has very limited activity to show for this week. Although supply tonnage is growing, demand remains very low, and buyers seem unwilling to enter negotiations. While scrap prices appear to be stabilizing, the excruciatingly limited numbers of open buyers are offering prices that are well below market levels. In Bangladesh, the wait and see attitude of local ship breakers has dominated their purchasing mindset. Demolition prices have moved down to about 27$/ldt for wet and 23$/ldt for dry tonnage. There are no sales reported this week in Bangladesh. Indicative Demolition Prices ($/ldt) Markets Week Week ±% Bangladesh % India % Pakistan % China % Bangladesh % India % Pakistan % China 2 2.% Indian ship recyclers are also offering poor demo prices, around 26$/ldt for wet and 23$/ldt for dry tonnage. Local ship recyclers have no real incentive to compete for tonnage, with enough vessels at their yards and large selection of supply tonnage, they insist on their benchmarked prices. Overall, India remains the key market for sellers, the sheer capacity of yards means India is able to absorb more tonnage than any other market in the world. This week Indian breakers have acquired the handysize bulker Lake Superior (3,67dwt-7,57ldt-built 1982) for 23$/ldt and the tweendecker Kriola (5,657dwt-3,412ldt-built 1975) for 235$/ldt. Pakistani ship recyclers are competing hard, offering quite high prices, around 27$/ldt for wet and 235$/ldt for dry tonnage. Overall, Pakistani ship breakers have demonstrated that they are back in business an a market to reckon with. China remains firm, local buyers have returned to the bidding tables and have managed to win few sales. This week, Chinese breakers have acquired the panamax bulker Great Zhejiang (65,44dwt-17,9ldt-built 1984) for 224$/ldt, included 8tns ROB and the mini bulk Monring Prince (13,91dwt-12,483ldt-built 1979) for 21$/ldt. Wet Dry $/ldt Jan-5 1-Apr-5 1-Jul-5 Wet Demolition Prices Bangladesh India Pakistan China 1-Oct-5 1-Jan-6 1-Apr-6 1-Jul-6 1-Oct-6 1-Jan-7 1-Apr-7 1-Jul-7 1-Oct-7 1-Jan-8 1-Apr-8 1-Jul-8 1-Oct-8 1-Jan-9 1-Apr-9 $/ldt Jan-5 1-Apr-5 Dry Demolition Prices Bangladesh India Pakistan China 1-Jul-5 1-Oct-5 1-Jan-6 1-Apr-6 1-Jul-6 1-Oct-6 1-Jan-7 1-Apr-7 1-Jul-7 1-Oct-7 1-Jan-8 1-Apr-8 1-Jul-8 1-Oct-8 1-Jan-9 1-Apr-9 Intermodal Research 6

7 Stock Exchange Data Currencies Commoditites Market Data 4-May-9 1-May-9 3-Apr-9 29-Apr-9 28-Apr-9 W-O-W Change % Dow Jones ,168 8,186 8, % Nasdaq 1,764 1,719 1,717 1,712 1,674 5.% S&P 5 8, , % FTSEurofirst % DJ Euro Stoxx 5 2,42 2,375 2,375 2,335 2, % FTSE 1 4,243 4,243 4,244 4,19 4,96 1.8% FTSE All-Share UK 2,175 2,175 2,173 2,142 2,93 2.2% CAC4 3,238 3,16 3,16 3,117 3,51 4.4% Xetra Dax 4,92 4,769 4,769 4,75 4,67 4.4% Nikkei 8,977 8,977 8,828 8,494 8, % Hang Seng 16,381 15,521 15,521 14,957 14, % FTSE All World $ % / $ % / $ % / $ % $ / % / % $ INDEX % / SFr % Oil Brent $ % Oil WTI $ % Gold $ % Company Maritime Stock Data Commodities & Financial Market Bunker Prices W-O-W 1-May-9 24-Apr-9 Change % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Stock Exchange Curr. 4-May-9 1-May-9 3-Apr-9 29-Apr-9 28-Apr-9 27-Apr-9 W-O-W Change % Max 52wk Min 52wk AEGEAN MARINE PETROL NYSE USD % ARIES MARITIME TRANSPORT NASDAQ USD % CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. NASDAQ USD % DANAOS CORP NYSE USD % DIANA SHIPPING NASDAQ USD % DRYSHIPS INC(IPO) NASDAQ USD % EUROSEAS LTD NASDAQ USD % EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS NYSE USD % FREESEAS INC NASDAQ USD % GENCO SHIPPING NYSE USD % GENERAL MARITIME NYSE USD % GLOBUS MARITIME LTD LONDON GBX % HELLENIC CARRIERS LTD LONDON GBX % NAVIOS MARITIME CORP NYSE USD % OCEANFREIGHT INC NASDAQ USD % OMEGA NAVIGATION ENTERPRISES INC NASDAQ USD % PARAGON SHIPPING INC NASDAQ USD % STEALTHGAS INC NASDAQ USD % TOP SHIPS INC NASDAQ USD % TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION INC NYSE USD % For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co oil MDO 38cst 18cst 27-Apr Basic Commodities Weekly Summary Oil Brent $ Oil WTI $ Gold $ 28-Apr 29-Apr 3-Apr 1-May gold Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. Compiled by: Intermodal Research Department Ms. Mariana Skiadopoulou 17th km Ethniki Odos Athens-Lamia & 3 Agrambelis Street, research@intermodal.gr N. Kifisia, Athens - Greece On behalf of: Intermodal Sale & Purchase and Newbuilding Departments Tel: Mr. K. Dermatis, Mr D. Evdemon, Mr. C. Goudis, Mr. A. Poulopoulos, Mr. T. Ntalakos, Fax: Ms. N. Anomitri, Mr. G. Dermatis, Mr. T. Papadopoulos, Mr. P. Manesis snp@intermodal.gr Intermodal Research 7