Weekly Market Report

Transcription

1 Week 31 Tuesday 4th August 9 Weekly Market Report Sale & Purchase Newbuilding Secondhand Demolition Chartering World Economy News China's economy should grow by 8% this year and next, but significant risks remain. The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised its economic forecasts for China in 9-1, and now believes that the country will achieve 8% GDP growth in both years. With real GDP growth having reached 7.9% year on year in the second quarter of 9, China already appears on course to achieve the government's aim of 8% average growth this year. However, growth in 1 remains subject to significant upside and downside risks. The outlook is obscured by the dominant role that government policy is set to play next year, and by the high degree of uncertainty with regard to the outlook for the global economy. Our forecast for next year reflects an assumption that the government will tighten credit and fiscal policy moderately. Such an approach would be likely to have negative side-effects. Assetprice inflation will be stimulated by a credit and fiscal policy stance that will be kept loose to offset the effects of the weak global economy on the export sector. (Economist) Energy & Commodities Commodities prices hit their highest level for the year on Monday, with European s oil benchmark Brent trading above $73.5 a barrel, buoyed by positive economic data and a sharp weakening of the US dollar. Other raw materials that hit a 9 peak included heating oil, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, rice, sugar, rubber and iron ore. In addition, agricultural commodities such as corn, wheat and soyabeans rallied. White sugar in London soared to its highest price since July The commodities rally came as manufacturing data from China to the US showed a marked improvement in July, suggesting that raw materials demand from industrial consumers will perk up. (Financial Times) Shipping News A scrapping surge and only a trickle of newbuilding deliveries restricted containership fleet growth to its lowest level in at least a decade in July, new figures show. Total deployed capacity rose by only 7,-teu last month, AXS Alphaliner says, the worst month on month figure since it began tracking liner fleet growth 1 years ago. It said: The cellular fleet itself has increased by only, teu in July, with 15 cellular ships totalling 73, teu completed, while the cellular tonnage reaching scrapping spots surged to 34 ships for 54, teu within the space of one month. Just over container ships were sent to the breakers in June. Alphaliner added: The cellular fleet currently stands at 4,69 ships totalling million teu (of which 1.3% are currently lying idle or laid up). As at 3 August, the idle fleet stands at 1.31 million teu, compared to 1. million teu a month ago as a number of ships are taken out of service as they end their rotations on services that have been halted or suspended. Non-operating owners share of the idle fleet has reached 1,-teu, which at 4.7% of the global total is a new record, Alphaliner s latest report says. Claus-Peter Offen s 5,77-teu OOCL Korea (also known as the Santa Victoria, built 1) has become the first NOO vessel over 5,-teu to be idled after finishing an eight year spell with OOCL. Carriers have 713,-teu of capacity in lay-up, equal to 5.6% of the global fleet. (Tradewinds) Chartering (Wet: Stable / Dry: Stable) For the past week, on the Dry market, the BDI was on Friday (31/7/9) 3,35, +5 points up from end of previous week s levels. On the Wet market, the BDTI on Friday (31/7/9) was 474, -3 points down and the BCTI at 465, +21 points up from end of previous week s levels. Sale & Purchase (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable+) The tanker S&P market has some interesting aframax sales to show for this week, the DH aframax Patriot Spirit (96,9 dwt built 1992) was sold to Indonesian interests at $16,4m and the DS aframax New Ambition (88,761 dwt built 1987) was sold at $6,2m. On the dry tonnage, there have been a satisfactory number of deals to report: indicatively, the supramax Victoria II (55,33 dwt built 9) was sold for $28m, the handymaxes Desert Sun (5,492 dwt built 1995) and Desert Dawn (48,218 dwt built 1995) fetched $19m each and Greeks have acquired the handysize Ocean Lotus (28, dwt built 4) for $m with SS/DDD just passed. Newbuilding (Wet: Weaker / Dry: Weaker) This week Crystal Maritime ordered 2 Capesize bulkers of 1,dwt each from Daehan Shipyard, with delivery 11 for region 7$m each. After a torrid first half 9, there are now encouraging signs that a positive contracting environment is not far away. Demolition (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable+ ) The demolition market continues to be firm. This week Indian breakers have acquired the LNG Margaret Hill (87,3cbm-23,ldt-built 1974) for 365$/ldt, asis Southampton, the tween decker Jumana (12,67dwt-4,9ldt-built 1977) for 1$/ldt, asis Suez. Pakistani breakers have purchased the MR tanker Palenque (37,574dwt- 8,379ldt-built 1987) for 31$/ldt and the tween decker Salina (12,7dwt-6,5ldt-built 1981) for 234/ldt. Chinese ship breakers have acquired the container Gem (2,728teu-14,342ldt-built 1983) for 27$/ldt. Intermodal Research 1 4/8/9

2 Wet Market $m VLCC Suez max Dirty Clean Aframax Vessel VLCC Suez max Aframax Panamax MR Handy size Jan-8 1-Feb-8 Routes Week 31 Week 3 2q9 2q8 ±% WS points Spot Rates WS points 265k AG-JAPAN 35 16, ,39 17% 22, ,795 2k AG-USG 28 12, ,919 1% 13,375 94,41 2k WAF-USG 38 23, ,284 25% 34, ,76 13k MED-MED 48 6, ,714-5% 27,36 115,885 13k WAF-USAC 45 8, ,77 6% 22,381 84,295 13k AG-CHINA 5 12, ,55-9% 21,754 68,825 k AG-EAST 7 1, ,625 % 11,9 42,69 k MED-MED 5, , -4% 17,189 69,37 k UKC-UKC ,957-16% 12,814 96,3 7k CARIBS-USG 68 5,615 2,949 13% 1,539 44,766 75k AG-JAPAN 83 13, ,493 1% 8,363 29,73 55k AG-JAPAN 12, ,9 21% 6,577 26,219 37K UKC-USAC 115 9, ,479 1% 8,931 33,563 3K MED-MED 5, ,797-9% 6,839 5,244 55K UKC-USG 7 5, ,9 % 13,57 48,955 55K MED-USG 7 3, ,873 % 12,176 45,438 5k CARIBS-USAC 65 1, ,115-7% 11,16 42,548 TC Rates Week 31 Week 3 ±% k 1yr TC 36,25 36,25.% 44,58 73,798 55,798 3k 3yr TC 36, 36,.%,813 58,844 48,585 15k 1yr TC 27,75 27,75.% 34,75 47,442 44,72 15k 3yr TC 26,7 26,7.% 32,87 41,123 38,777 15k 1yr TC 18,25 18,25.% 21,863 36,43 33,394 15k 3yr TC 19, 19,.% 22,79 3,7 29,83 7k 1yr TC 17,75 18,75-5.3% 21,72 29,471 29,567 7k 3yr TC 18,7 19, -2.6% 21,635 26,686 27,113 45k 1yr TC 13,25 14,25-7.% 17,315 23,731 26,154 45k 3yr TC 14,7 15, -3.3% 17,547 22,527 23,488 36k 1yr TC 11,25 13, % 16,89 22,2 23,519 36k 3yr TC 12, 13, -7.6% 15,974,585 21,517 Tankers SH Values (5yrs) VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR 1-Mar-8 1-Apr-8 1-May-8 1-Jun-8 1-Jul-8 1-Aug-8 1-Sep-8 1-Oct-8 1-Nov-8 1-Dec-8 1-Jan-9 1-Feb-9 1-Mar-9 1-Apr-9 1-May-9 1-Jun-9 1-Jul-9 The Tankers Sale and Purchase activity remains at low levels. Most interested parties have adopted a wait and see attitude, as second hand values continue to follow a downward trend. The double hull Patriot Spirit (96,9 dwt built 1992) was sold to Indonesian interests at $16,4m. By way of comparison, in October 8, Cardiff Marine sold Tigani (97,114 dwt built 1991) to Oceanfreight for $m. It is also worth noting that last month, the one year younger Chemtrans Lyra (97,97 dwt built 1993) also double hulled, was close to being committed for $16,5m, again to Indonesian based buyers but the deal never materialised. The double sided but single bottom aframax New Ambition (88,761 dwt built 1987) was sold to undisclosed at $6,2m. DIRTY - WS RATES Furthermore, in the small tankers section, the double bottom IMO II/III Kinugawa (24,743dwt-built 1984) was purchased by an undisclosed buyer for 3.5$m, the very modern double hull Southern York (6,5dwt-built 3) was acquired by Japanese for 15$m and finally the similar size but older DH IMO II/III Golden Chemical (6,62dwt-built 1991) was sold to Singaporeans for 4.2$m. WS points WS points Jan-7 2-Mar Jan-7 2-Mar-7, 9,, 7,, 5,, 3,, 1, 5-Jan-7, 7,, 5,, 3,, 1, 5-Apr-7 5-Jan-7 5-Mar-7 TD3 TD5 TD8 TD4 5-Jul-7 2-May-7 2-Jul-7 2-Sep-7 2-Nov-7 2-Jan-8 2-Mar-8 2-May-8 2-Jul-8 TC2 TC4 TC6 TC1 2-Sep-8 2-Nov-8 2-Jan-9 2-Mar-9 2-May-9 2-Jul-9 2-May-7 2-Jul-7 2-Sep-7 2-Nov-7 2-Jan-8 2-Mar-8 2-May-8 2-Jul-8 2-Sep-8 2-Nov-8 2-Jan-9 2-Mar-9 2-May-9 CLEAN - WS RATES 2-Jul-9 Tankers 1YR TC RATES VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR 5-Oct-7 5-Jan-8 5-Apr-8 5-Jul-8 5-Oct-8 5-Jan-9 5-Apr-9 5-Jul-9 Tankers 3YR TC RATES VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax MR 5-May-7 5-Jul-7 5-Sep-7 5-Nov-7 5-Jan-8 5-Mar-8 5-May-8 5-Jul-8 5-Sep-8 5-Nov-8 5-Jan-9 5-Mar-9 5-May-9 5-Jul-9 Intermodal Research 2 4/8/9

3 Dry Market $m Capesize Panamax Supramax Handymax Handysize Baltic Indices Week 31 Week 3 31/7/9 24/7/9 ±% Index Index Index Index Index BDI 3,35 3,345 % 2,571 6,663 7,321 BCI 5,385 71,188 5,17 79,45 4% 1,624 9,577 1,172 BPI 3,183 24,34 3,524 22,632-1% 79 6,342 7,283 BSI 2,81 18,64 2,91 18,234 % 661 4,225 4,788 BHSI 887 1, ,54 1% 529 2,257 2, Jan-8 1-Feb-8 Period Week Week 31 3 ±% K 6mnt TC 5,25 52,25-4% 37,3 117,43 118,6 17K 1yr TC 41, 39,45 4% 31, ,729 17,118 17K 3yr TC 33,25 33,25 % 26,452 82,429 76,58 7K 6mnt TC 28,45 28,95-2% 18,712 57,623 58,996 7K 1yr TC 22, 22,5-2% 16,476 55,887 52,567 7K 3yr TC 15,7 15,7 % 14,934 44,556 39,974 52K 6mnt TC,75,75 % 14,984 47,159 48,822 52K 1yr TC 16,7 16,95-1% 13,329 45,71 45,92 52K 3yr TC 14,25 14,75-3% 13,94 34,38 34, 45k 6mnt TC 18, 18, % 12,869 41,681 43,639 45k 1yr TC 14,5 14,75-2% 11,5 38,923, 45k 3yr TC 12,95 13, -2% 11,535 28,431 29,63 3K 6mnt TC 13, 12,25 6% 1,315 3,547 31,596 3K 1yr TC 11,45 11,45 % 9,853 29,686 28,3 3K 3yr TC 11,5 11,5 % 1,376 22,87 22,113 Bulk Carriers SH Values (5yrs) Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize 1-Mar-8 1-Apr-8 1-May-8 1-Jun-8 1-Jul-8 1-Aug-8 1-Sep-8 1-Oct-8 1-Nov-8 1-Dec-8 1-Jan-9 1-Feb-9 1-Mar-9 1-Apr-9 1-May-9 1-Jun-9 1-Jul-9 It has been another very busy week in the dry S&P market with some interesting sales across the sectors, mainly for modern units. In the supramax sector, undisclosed buyers bought the China-built Victoria II (55,33 dwt built 9) for $28m. In the end of June, we reported the resale of the China-built supramax Nantong Cosco Khi 66 (55, dwt ) with delivery December 9 for a firm $33m! Undisclosed buyers acquired the handymaxes Desert Sun (5,492 dwt built 1995) and Desert Dawn (48,218 dwt built 1995) for $19m each. Bulkers of this tonnage/age are very popular in beg of May, East-Med owned Sea Luck (45,429 dwt built 1995) was reported sold to Chinese for $15,5m. In the handysize sector, the open hatch/semi boxed Bright Ocean 2 (32,128 dwt built 1999) was sold to Turkish buyers for $17m with SS/DD freshly passed.. Furthermore, Greeks acquired the Ocean Lotus (28, dwt built 4) for $m with SS/DDD just passed. No similar tonnage has been sold recently thus no comparison is available Turkish were also the buyers of the older Kovdor (3,65 dwt built 1984) at $5m with SS/DD due. About a month ago, in July 9, we reported the sale of Pontoporos (29,155 dwt built 1984) to undisclosed buyers at he same price of $5m with SS/DD due. 22,, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, One deal worth mentioning,is the sale of Century Elkhorn (16,113 dwt built 1996) for $11m to Turkish buyers. Index 2, 21, 1, 15,, 9,, 3, 2-Jan-6 2-Apr-6 2-Jul-6 2-Jan-6 2-Apr-6 2-Jul-6 2-Oct-6 2-Jan-7 2-Apr-7 2-Jul-7 2-Oct-7 2-Jan-8 2-Apr-8 2-Jul-8 2-Oct-8 Baltic Indices BCI BPI BSI BHSI BDI AVR 4TC BCI AVR 5TC BSI 2-Oct-6 2-Jan-7 2-Jan-9 2-Apr-9 2-Jul-9 Average T/C Rates for Baltic Indices AVR 4TC BPI AVR 6TC BHSI 2-Apr-7 2-Jul-7 2-Oct-7 2-Jan-8 2-Apr-8 2-Jul-8 2-Oct-8 2-Jan-9 2-Apr-9 2-Jul-9 Dry Bulkers 1 Year Period Rates Capesize Panamax Handymax Supramax Handysize 21, 1, 15,, 9,, 3, 5-Jan-7 5-Mar-7 5-May-7 5-Jul-7 5-Sep-7 5-Nov-7 5-Jan-8 5-Mar-8 5-May-8 5-Jul-8 5-Sep-8 5-Nov-8 5-Jan-9 5-Mar-9 5-May-9 5-Jul-9 Dry Bulkers 3 Year Period Rates Capesize Panamax Handymax Supramax Handysize,,,,,, 5-Jan-7 5-Mar-7 5-May-7 5-Jul-7 5-Sep-7 5-Nov-7 5-Jan-8 5-Mar-8 5-May-8 5-Jul-8 5-Sep-8 5-Nov-8 5-Jan-9 5-Mar-9 5-May-9 5-Jul-9 Intermodal Research 3 4/8/9

4 Secondhand Sales Intermodal Research 4 4/8/9

5 New Building Market million $ Apr-6 7-Jul-6 Bulkers Tankers Gas Tankers NB Prices (m$) VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR 7-Oct-6 7-Jan-7 7-Apr-7 7-Jul-7 7-Oct-7 7-Jan-8 7-Apr-8 7-Jul-8 7-Oct-8 7-Jan-9 7-Apr-9 7-Jul-9 Indicative Newbuilding Prices (million$) Vessel Week Week 3 29 ±% Capesize 17k % Panamax 75k % Supramax 57k % Handysize 3k % VLCC 3k % Suezmax 15k % Aframax 11k % LR1 7k % MR 47k % LPG M3 k % LPG M3 52k % LPG M3 23k % Please note that due to the lack of new newbuilding orders in most of the above sectors, the prices are estimates. million $ 7-Apr-6 7-Jul-6 Bulk Carriers NB Prices (m$) Capesi ze Panamax Supramax Handys ize 7-Oct-6 7-Jan-7 7-Apr-7 7-Jul-7 7-Oct-7 7-Jan-8 7-Apr-8 7-Jul-8 7-Oct-8 7-Jan-9 7-Apr-9 7-Jul-9 The newbuilding market continues to show further signs of activity. Shipyards are starting to show interest on discussing prices at more competitive levels. This week Crystal Maritime ordered 2 Capesize bulkers of 1,dwt each from Daehan Shipyard, with delivery 11 for region 7$m each. Intermodal Research 5 4/8/9

6 Demolition Market The demolition market has seen a pretty stable environment for the last couple of weeks. Prices present firm and activity remains on normal levels. There is a reason for optimism with the supply plentiful and demand still there. In Bangladesh demolition prices have held up for tankers at around 3$/ldt with larger containers and bulkers seeing region 2$/ldt. Indicative Demolition Prices ($/ldt) Markets Week Week 31 3 ±% Bangladesh % India % Pakistan % China 2 2.% Bangladesh % India % Pakistan % China 2 2.% India has been the busiest market this week. Indian breakers have acquired the LNG Margaret Hill (87,3cbm-23,ldt-built 1974) for 365$/ldt, asis Southampton, the tween decker Jumana (12,67dwt- 4,9ldt-built 1977) for 1$/ldt, asis Suez and the 2 reefers Crystal Lily (487,276cuft-6,674ldt-built 1979) and Crystal orchid (482,2cuft-6,57ldt-built 1979) for an undisclosed price. Activity in Pakistan seems to be picking up, with demolition prices ranging between 35$/ldt for wet and 265$/ldt for dry tonnage. This week Pakistani breakers have purchased the MR tanker Palenque (37,574dwt-8,379ldt-built 1987) for 31$/ldt and the tween decker Salina (12,7dwt-6,5ldt-built 1981) for 234/ldt. China remains firm, offering around 2$/ldt for wet and 2$/ldt for dry tonnage. This week, Chinese ship breakers have acquired the container Gem (2,728teu-14,342ldt-built 1983) for 27$/ldt. As far as containers are concerned, China has become the primary market for Far East tonnage. Wet Dry $/ldt Wet Demolition Prices Bangladesh India Pakis tan China $/ldt Dry Demolition Prices Banglades h India Pakistan China 7-Jan-5 7-Jul-5 7-Jan-6 7-Jul-6 7-Jan-7 7-Jul-7 7-Jan-8 7-Jul-8 7-Jan-9 7-Jul-9 7-Jan-5 7-Jul-5 7-Jan-6 7-Jul-6 7-Jan-7 7-Jul-7 7-Jan-8 7-Jul-8 7-Jan-9 7-Jul-9 Intermodal Research 6 4/8/9

7 Stock Exchange Data Currencies Commoditites Market Data 3-Aug-9 31-Jul-9 3-Jul-9 29-Jul-9 28-Jul-9 W-O-W Change % Dow Jones 9, , , ,7.7 9, % Nasdaq 2,9 1,979 1,984 1,968 1, % S&P 5 1, % FTSEurofirst % DJ Euro Stoxx 5 2,674 2,638 2,655 2, 2, % FTSE 4,682 4,8 4,632 4,548 4, % FTSE All-Share UK 2,392 2,353 2,361 2,318 2,38 2.3% CAC 3,478 3,426 3,435 3,366 3, % Xetra Dax 5,427 5,332 5,361 5,27 5, % Nikkei 1,352 1,357 1,165 1,113 1,87 2.6% Hang Seng,7,573,234,136, % FTSE All World $ % / $ % / $ % / $ % $ / % / % $ INDEX % / SFr % Oil Brent $ % Oil WTI $ % Gold $ % Company Maritime Stock Data oil Stock W-O-W Curr. 3-Aug-9 31-Jul-9 3-Jul-9 29-Jul-9 28-Jul-9 27-Jul-9 Exchange Commodities & Financial Market Basic Commodities Weekly Summary Oil Brent $ Oil WTI $ Gold $ Change % gold Max 52wk Min 52wk AEGEAN MARINE PETROL NYSE USD % ARIES MARITIME TRANSPORT NASDAQ USD % CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. NASDAQ USD % DANAOS CORP NYSE USD % DIANA SHIPPING NASDAQ USD % DRYSHIPS INC(IPO) NASDAQ USD % EUROSEAS LTD NASDAQ USD % EXCEL MARITIME CARRIERS NYSE USD % FREESEAS INC NASDAQ USD % GENCO SHIPPING NYSE USD % GENERAL MARITIME NYSE USD % GLOBUS MARITIME LTD LONDON GBX % HELLENIC CARRIERS LTD LONDON GBX % NAVIOS MARITIME CORP NYSE USD % OCEANFREIGHT INC NASDAQ USD %..82 OMEGA NAVIGATION ENTERPRISES INC NASDAQ USD % PARAGON SHIPPING INC NASDAQ USD % STEALTHGAS INC NASDAQ USD % TOP SHIPS INC NASDAQ USD % TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION INC NYSE USD % MDO 3cst 1cst Bunker Prices W-O-W 31-Jul-9 24-Jul-9 Change % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % Rotterdam % Houston % Singapore % For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. 17th km Ethniki Odos Athens-Lamia & 3 Agrambelis Street, N. Kifisia, Athens - Greece Tel: Fax: Compiled by: Intermodal Research Department Ms. Mariana Skiadopoulou research@intermodal.gr On behalf of: Intermodal Sale & Purchase and Newbuilding Departments Mr. K. Dermatis, Mr D. Evdemon, Mr. C. Goudis, Mr. A. Poulopoulos, Mr. T. Ntalakos, Ms. N. Anomitri, Mr. G. Dermatis, Mr. T. Papadopoulos, Mr. P. Manesis snp@intermodal.gr Intermodal Research 7 4/8/9