Maritime Security Threats & Supply Chain Risk. Peter Cook

Transcription

1 Maritime Security Threats & Supply Chain Risk Peter Cook

2 Agenda Historical perspective of maritime security and how things have changed. Problems defining contemporary definition of maritime security and multi-faceted aspects and threats of the genre. What does it mean to me?

3 History of Security at Sea

4 Control of the sea by maritime commerce and naval supremacy means predominant influence in the world. AT Mahan Most ships flew the flag of their national registries

5 Post WWII Changes Open registries were initially used to avoid increasing labour costs and alcohol prohibition Containerisation significantly speeded up cargo handling, reducing costs Revolutionised ship building technology

6 Growth in commercial shipping! The world s [commercial ] fleet has more than doubled in size since 2001, United Nations Conference on Trade & Development Review of Maritime Transport 2013

7 Commercial Shipping Drivers: Shipping companies, operators, managers & charterers (international shipping associations) Perfect Market Flag States (commercial entities) Marine Insurance

8 Today over 80% of the global commercial fleet is flagged with Open Registries

9 Open Registries DON T have ocean going navies.

10 International Maritime Organization (IMO)

11 European Navies decline French Navy 47% reduction German Navy 31% reduction Italian Navy 40% reduction Spanish Navy 5% reduction UK Navy 44% reduction Source: IISS Military Balance 2013

12 What is Maritime Security?

13 Seven Dimensions of Maritime Security: State on State Trade Protection Resource Management Smuggling Terrorism Disasters (natural & manmade) Oceanography

14 Seven Dimensions of Maritime Security: State on State Trade Protection Resource Management Smuggling Terrorism Disasters (natural & manmade) Oceanography

15 State on State The South China Sea is the Mitteleuropa of the twenty-first century. Kaplan USS Lassen Oct 15

16 State on State Capt Jeff Davies USN of the Pentagon, said, We seen evidence that Houthis are laying mines in waters outside at Least one of their [Yemen] ports. We officially have a great concern for the freedom of navigation there. 3 Feb 17 Saudi Arabian Frigate attacked In BeM by 3 small vessels, one vessel (unmanned) exploded on impact, killing 2 Saudi sailors (30 Jan 17) HSV2-Swift (UAE flagged) attacked with Yemeni missiles (1 Oct 16) in BeM.

17 Impact of the closing of the Bab el Mandeb/Suez Canal. From To Via 15kts in days Remarks Fujairah (Straits of Hormuz) Gibraltar (mouth of Mediterranean) Suez Canal 5172nm 14.4 Most direct, quickest and shortest route. Fujairah (Straits of Hormuz) Gibraltar (mouth of Mediterranean) Cape of Good Hope 11213nm 31.2 Takes 16.8 days longer for a one-way trip and 33.6 days longer for a round trip a 116% increase Singapore Gibraltar (mouth of Mediterranean) Suez Canal Most direct, quickest and shortest route. Singapore Gibraltar (mouth of Mediterranean) Cape of Good Hope Takes 10.5 days longer for a one-way trip and 21 days longer for a round trip a 54% increase

18 Trade Protection IMB Piracy Map 21 Apr 10 IMB Piracy Map 2 Apr 12 IMB Piracy Map 2 Nov 14 IMB Piracy Map for 2015 IMB Piracy Map for 2016 IMB Piracy Map 6 Dec 17

19 Taken from ReCAAP Report Jan-Jun 17 Abu Sayyaf Group Basilan Group Maute Group

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21 Resource Management (Oil & Gas)

22 Resource Management (Undersea Mining)

23 Resource Management (IUU Fishing)

24 Smuggling

25 90% of everything moves by sea!

26 Terrorism The Santa Maria, a cruise liner taken a team of 24 Iberian terrorists off the coast of Venezuela on 23 January 1961in the so called Operation DULCINEA against the Portuguese government.

27 Achille Lauro The Achille Lauro, a cruise liner taken over by 4 Palestine Liberation Front (PLF) terrorists in the Mediterranean when surprised by a crew member. One wheelchair bound US passenger was murdered. Terrorists disembarked at Port Said.

28 USS COLE Aden 2000 While Western defence expenditure and investment in sophisticated weaponry grew, it was a speedboat packed with improvised explosives that almost sunk the USS COLE in Professor Richard Holmes

29 MV Limburg In October 2002 The MV Limburg, an oil tanker carrying almost 400K barrels crude, off the coast of Yemen, was attacked by an Al Qaeda terrorist in a small boat with a Waterborne Improvised Explosive Device (WBIED) detonated on the starboard side, almost 90K barrels of crude leaked into the sea.

30 Superferry 14 In February 2004 a 10K GT ferry departed Manila with 899 passengers & crew on board. A TV set containing 3.6kg of explosives blew up one hour after departing. The explosion caused a fire that spread throughout the vessel. Dead and missing (presumed drowned) 180.

31 In November 2008, 10 members of a Pakistani Al Qaeda terrorists carried out a very well planned and coordinated amphibious raid on 12 targets in the port city of Mumbai lasting 4 days, killing more than 160 people and injuring over 300, having exploited the weakness of the sea side port security measures. Mumbai

32 M Star In November 2010 the M Star, an oil tanker under way at 10-12kts, transiting the Straits of Hormuz at night was attacked with a WBIED. Evidence and results of the investigation have not been released.

33 Cosco Asia Suez Canal On 31 st August 2013 terrorists attacked a Container ship carrying 10K TEU as it transited the Suez Canal. Clearly a well planned and coordinated attack against one of the key global chokepoints

34 Achilles Heel of Western Economies stating that if a single super tanker were to be attacked in one of the chokepoints or hijacked and scuttled in one of the narrow sea lanes the consequences would be phenomenal

35 Egyptian Naval Vessels attacked November 2014 ISIS conduct an attack against an Egyptian naval vessel in the Mediterranean using a stand-off missile killing 8 sailors.

36 Tunis March 2015 Terrorists attacked the Bardo Museum in the port of La Goulette, Tunisia as passengers from two cruise ships were getting off buses to visit the site. The tourists ran into the museum seeking shelter, pursued by the gunmen, a 3 hour siege ensued.

37 Karachi, Pakistan September 2015 On 6 th September 10 Al Qaeda militants and some members of the Pakistan navy attempted to capture the frigate PNS ZULFIQAR, to allegedly attack US naval vessels patrolling in the Indian Ocean.

38 Article in FT January 2016

39 Galicia Spirit, a LNG carrier, attacked b in small boat with WBIED 25 Oct 16.

40 Disasters, natural/man-made

41 Oceanography

42 Global supply chain and vulnerabilities The growing global population and increase in middle class will result in a growth of the demand; Coal and Iron Ore trade will increase over the next 12 years to 2030, linked to the urbanisation of China and India and the requirement for steel; Consequently the Bulk Fleet is expected to grow with Cape size vessels times compared to Handy and Panamax ( ). 63% increase in oil supply by The largest increase in LNG import will come from energy-hungry India and China Ships larger than 7,600TEU to grow times Information taken from Global Marine Trends 2030 by Lloyd s Register, Qinetiq and University of Strathclyde;

43 Plagues of the seas: Piracy is a tropical disease that is impossible to eradicate. As the volume of trade moving by sea increases the quantities of contraband moving by sea will inevitably increase as well. As pressure on natural resources (water, food, fish etc) grow in different parts of the world, along with other environmental pressures (SST and Sea Levels rising) the mass movement of people will reach unprecedented levels.

44 Summary The only constant in life is change! The problems of defining the contemporary definition of maritime security is new complex and challenging. What does it mean to me? Increase demand Increased threat Greater unpredictability! Higher risk, Higher return! - Maybe

45 Peter Cook PCA Maritime

46 Questions