EKOS Seat Projection:

Transcription

1 EKOS Seat Projection: Special thanks go to Earl Washburn and Graham Pressey, who were the principal investigators in creating this seat forecast. [Ottawa October 19, 2015] With just hours to go until the polls close, EKOS is offering a seat projection based on what we believe to be perhaps the strongest riding prediction model extant at this time. We have been constantly refining our model which is populated with the nearly 130,000 cases we have collected since January. We have made a number of qualitative adjustments based on each riding s history and candidates. Before digging into the numbers, we would like to provide two very important caveats: 1.) Our model assumes that our final numbers are accurate. There were a lot of last minute movements, particularly in Quebec. For example, our final poll had the Liberals at 36 points. However, the Liberals were clearly on an upward trend at the time our final poll was conducted and they could easily find themselves a few points higher this evening. With the large number of three- and four-way races in this country, a difference of one or two points could easily translate to a difference of 10 or 20 seats. 2.) There are a lot of close calls in Quebec. Many Quebec ridings are tight four-way races, meaning that many of these seats will be won with less than 30 per cent of the vote. With margins this thin, there is a very wide margin for error in terms of final seat tally. Also, there were a lot of late movements in the province, including a last minute surge in support for the Bloc Québécois. Our final projected seat tallies are as follows: GREEN Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 1

2 Notable potential losses At this stage, we believe that all five major party leaders are positioned to win their home ridings (although Gilles Duceppe faces a very tight race in his riding of Laurier Sainte-Marie). There are, however, a number of incumbents who are not likely to win their seats this evening. Some of these notable losses include: Conservative Party: Bernard Valcourt, Minister of Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development, Madawaska Restigouche, MB Chris Alexander, Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, Ajax, ON Gail Shea, Minister of Fisheries and Oceans, Egmont, PEI Greg Rickford, Minister of Natural Resources, Kenora, ON Joe Oliver, Minister of Finance, Eglinton Lawrence, ON Julian Fantino, Minister of National Defence, Vaughan Woodbridge, ON Keith Ashfield, Fredericton, NB Leona Aglukkaq, Minister of the Environment, Nunavut Paul Calandra, Parliamentary Secretary to the Prime Minister, Markham Stouffville, ON New Democratic Party: Françoise Boivin, Gatineau, QC John Rafferty, Thunder Bay Rainy River, ON Maria Mourani, Ahuntsic-Cartierville, QC Megan Leslie, Halifax, NS Nycole Turmel, Hull Aylmer, QC Pat Martin, Winnipeg Centre, MB Peter Stoffer, Sackville Preston Chezzetcook, NS Peggy Nash, Parkdale High Park, ON Other: Bruce Hyer (GP), Thunder Bay Superior North, ON Jean-François Fortin (SD), Avignon La Mitis Matane Matapédia, QC Scott Andrews (Independent), Avalon, NL Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 2

3 Riding-by-riding forecasts: NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR Avalon Bonavista Burin Trinity Coast of Bays Central Notre Dame Labrador Long Range Mountains St. John s East St. John s South Mount Pearl PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND Cardigan Charlottetown Egmont Malpeque NOVA SCOTIA Cape Breton Canso Central Nova Cumberland Colchester Dartmouth Cole Harbour Halifax Halifax West Kings Hants Sackville Preston Chezzetcook South Shore St. Margarets Sydney Victoria West Nova NEW BRUNSWICK Acadie Bathurst Beauséjour Fredericton Fundy Royal Madawaska Restigouche Miramichi Grand Lake Moncton Riverview Dieppe New Brunswick Southwest Saint John Rothesay Tobique Mactaquac Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 3

4 QUEBEC Abitibi Baie-James Nunavik Eeyou Abitibi Témiscamingue Ahuntsic-Cartierville Alfred-Pellan Argenteuil La Petite-Nation Avignon La Mitis Matane Matapédia Beauce Beauport Côte-de-Beaupré Île d'orléans Charlevoix Beauport Limoilou Bécancour Nicolet Saurel Bellechasse Les Etchemins Lévis Beloeil Chambly Berthier Maskinongé Bourassa Brome Missisquoi Brossard Saint-Lambert Charlesbourg Haute-Saint-Charles Châteauguay Lacolle Chicoutimi Le Fjord Compton Stanstead Dorval Lachine LaSalle Drummond Gaspésie Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine Gatineau Hochelaga Honoré-Mercier Hull Aylmer Joliette Jonquière La Pointe-de-l'Île La Prairie Lac-Saint-Jean Lac-Saint-Louis LaSalle Émard Verdun Laurentides Labelle Laurier Sainte-Marie Laval Les Îles Lévis Lotbinière Longueuil Charles-LeMoyne Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 4

5 Longueuil Saint-Hubert Louis-Hébert Louis-Saint-Laurent Manicouagan Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Mégantic L'Érable Mirabel Montarville Montcalm Montmagny L'Islet Kamouraska Rivière-du-Loup Mount Royal Notre-Dame-de-Grâce Westmount Outremont Papineau Pierre-Boucher Les Patriotes Verchères Pierrefonds Dollard Pontiac Portneuf Jacques-Cartier Québec Repentigny Richmond Arthabaska Rimouski-Neigette Témiscouata Les Basques Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Rivière-du-Nord Rosemont La Petite-Patrie Saint-Hyacinthe Bagot Saint-Jean Saint-Laurent Saint-Léonard Saint-Michel Saint-Maurice Champlain Salaberry Suroît Shefford Sherbrooke Terrebonne Thérèse-De Blainville Trois-Rivières Vaudreuil Soulanges Ville-Marie Le Sud-Ouest Île-des-Sœurs Vimy Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 5

6 ONTARIO Ajax Algoma Manitoulin Kapuskasing Aurora Oak Ridges Richmond Hill Barrie Innisfil Barrie Springwater Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Beaches East York Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Brantford Brant Bruce Grey Owen Sound Burlington Cambridge Carleton Chatham-Kent Leamington Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Dufferin Caledon Durham Eglinton Lawrence Elgin Middlesex London Essex Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke North Etobicoke Lakeshore Flamborough Glanbrook Glengarry Prescott Russell Guelph Haldimand Norfolk Haliburton Kawartha Lakes Brock Hamilton Centre Hamilton East Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Hamilton West Ancaster Dundas Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 6

7 Hastings Lennox and Addington Humber River Black Creek Huron Bruce Kanata Carleton Kenora King Vaughan Kingston and the Islands Kitchener Centre Kitchener South Hespeler Kitchener Conestoga Lambton Kent Middlesex Lanark Frontenac Kingston Leeds Grenville Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes London North Centre London West London Fanshawe Markham Stouffville Markham Thornhill Markham Unionville Milton Mississauga Centre Mississauga East Cooksville Mississauga Erin Mills Mississauga Lakeshore Mississauga Malton Mississauga Streetsville Nepean Newmarket Aurora Niagara Centre Niagara Falls Niagara West Nickel Belt Nipissing Timiskaming Northumberland Peterborough South Oakville Oakville North Burlington Orléans Oshawa Ottawa Centre Ottawa South Ottawa West Nepean Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 7

8 Ottawa Vanier Oxford Parkdale High Park Parry Sound Muskoka Perth Wellington Peterborough Kawartha Pickering Uxbridge Renfrew Nipissing Pembroke Richmond Hill Sarnia Lambton Sault Ste. Marie Scarborough Centre Scarborough North Scarborough Southwest Scarborough Agincourt Scarborough Guildwood Scarborough Rouge Park Simcoe North Simcoe Grey Spadina Fort York St. Catharines Stormont Dundas South Glengarry Sudbury Thornhill Thunder Bay Rainy River Thunder Bay Superior North Timmins James Bay Toronto Centre Toronto St. Paul's Toronto Danforth University Rosedale Vaughan Woodbridge Waterloo Wellington Halton Hills Whitby Willowdale Windsor West Windsor Tecumseh York Centre York South Weston York Simcoe Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 8

9 MANITOBA Brandon Souris Charleswood St. James Assiniboia Headingley Churchill Keewatinook Aski Dauphin Swan River Neepawa Elmwood Transcona Kildonan St. Paul Portage Lisgar Provencher Saint Boniface Saint Vital Selkirk Interlake Eastman Winnipeg Centre Winnipeg North Winnipeg South Winnipeg South Centre SASKATCHEWAN Battlefords Lloydminster Cypress Hills Grasslands Desnethé Missinippi Churchill River Carlton Trail Eagle Creek Moose Jaw Lake Centre Lanigan Prince Albert Regina Lewvan Regina Qu'Appelle Regina Wascana Saskatoon Grasswood Saskatoon University Saskatoon West Souris Moose Mountain Yorkton Melville Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 9

10 ALBERTA Banff Airdrie Battle River Crowfoot Bow River Calgary Centre Calgary Confederation Calgary Forest Lawn Calgary Heritage Calgary Midnapore Calgary Nose Hill Calgary Rocky Ridge Calgary Shepard Calgary Signal Hill Calgary Skyview Edmonton Centre Edmonton Griesbach Edmonton Manning Edmonton Mill Woods Edmonton Riverbend Edmonton Strathcona Edmonton West Edmonton Wetaskiwin Foothills Fort McMurray Cold Lake Grande Prairie Mackenzie Lakeland Lethbridge Medicine Hat Cardston Warner Peace River Westlock Red Deer Mountain View Red Deer Lacombe St. Albert Edmonton Sherwood Park Fort Saskatchewan Sturgeon River Parkland Yellowhead Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 10

11 BRITISH COLUMBIA Abbotsford Burnaby North Seymour Burnaby South Cariboo Prince George Central Okanagan Similkameen Nicola Chilliwack Hope Cloverdale Langley City Coquitlam Port Coquitlam Courtenay Alberni Cowichan Malahat Langford Delta Esquimalt Saanich Sooke Fleetwood Port Kells Kamloops Thompson Cariboo Kelowna Lake Country Kootenay Columbia Langley Aldergrove Mission Matsqui Fraser Canyon Nanaimo Ladysmith New Westminster Burnaby North Island Powell River North Okanagan Shuswap North Vancouver Pitt Meadows Maple Ridge Port Moody Coquitlam Prince George Peace River Northern Rockies Richmond Centre Saanich Gulf Islands Skeena Bulkley Valley South Okanagan West Kootenay South Surrey White Rock Steveston Richmond East Surrey Centre Surrey Newton Vancouver Centre Vancouver East Vancouver Granville Vancouver Kingsway Vancouver Quadra GREEN Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 11

12 Vancouver South Victoria West Vancouver Sunshine Coast Sea to Sky Country TERRITORIES Yukon Northwest Territories Nunavut Copyright No reproduction without permission. Page 12