U.S. Military MRO Outlook Smoke On The Horizon?
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1 U.S. Military MRO Outlook Smoke On The Horizon? Presented by Hal Chrisman, Principal AeroStrategy LLC Military MRO Conference Phoenix, AZ 21 April 2010 Ann Arbor, Michigan Amersham, U.K. Singapore
2 Agenda Military MRO in Perspective Military MRO U.S. Details Winners & Losers Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Key Sustainment Trends & Implications For Industry
3 Putting Military MRO In Perspective There Are Four Main, And Different, User Or Aircraft Market Segments AIR TRANSPORT Airlines and freight carriers Turboprop and jet aircraft Fleet of about 25, million flying hours a year or ~ 2,400 per aircraft MILITARY Attack, transport, trainers Fixed- and rotary wing Fleet of about 39, million flying hours a year or ~ 300 per aircraft BUSINESS AVIATION Corporate, charter, fractional Jet and turboprop aircraft Fleet of about 30, million flying hours a year or ~340 per aircraft CIVIL HELICOPTER Corporate, government, resource development Fleet of about 17,000 5 million flying hours a year or ~ 300 per aircraft 3
4 Putting Military MRO In Perspective Maintenance Suppliers Today Support Over 110,000 Active Aircraft That Generate $120B In MRO Spend Current Global Aircraft Fleet Current Global Aircraft MRO Spend 110,200 Aircraft $120B Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Aviation 4
5 Putting Military MRO In Perspective In North America, Which Accounts For 44% Of MRO Spend, Military Is The Largest Segment; In Europe And Asia, Air Transport Is The Largest Global Total MRO Market ($120B) Civil Helicopter Bus. Aviation Military Air Transport N. America (44%) Europe (25%) Asia (17%) ROW (13%) Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Aviation 5
6 Putting Military MRO In Perspective Military MRO Is Driven By Field Maintenance; Engine Overhaul Is The Driver Of Spend In Air Transport 2009 Global Total MRO Market ($120B) Modifications Field/Line Engine Components Airframe Military (50%) Note: modifications is excluded as in military, these tend to be under program / capital budgets rather than support/mro Air Transport (39%) Bus. Aviation (6%) Civil Helicopter (4%) Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Aviation 6
7 Putting Military MRO In Perspective Military MRO Spend Has Been And Will Continue To Be Relatively Stable Military Aviation MRO Spend $B Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Aviation 7
8 Agenda Military MRO in Perspective Military MRO U.S. Details Winners & Losers Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Key Sustainment Trends & Implications For Industry
9 US Military MRO Market U.S. Air Force Has The Largest Fleet At Almost 5700 Aircraft 2009 U.S. Military Aircraft Fleet By Service And Mission 14,107 Aircraft Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Aviation 9
10 US Military MRO Market Fighter / Attack Aircraft Account For Over 30% Of MRO Spending 2009 U.S. Military Aircraft MRO Spend By Mission And Service Type $32.0 Billion USD Reset $10.8 $7.1 $6.2 $3.8 $2.6 $0.9 $0.3 Engine Component Airframe Field Fighter / Attack Transport Helicopter Transport / Tanker Special Mission Attack Helicopter Trainer Other Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Aviation 10
11 US Military MRO Market As Reset Goes Away, US MRO Spending Could Decline Slightly In The Near Term US Military MRO Forecast Some Key Trends To Consider The impact of the economy on the defense budget and the market The increasing importance of rotary wing lift Moves by the US Military to insource more work that has previously been outsourced All Values In 2009 U.S. Dollars Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Aviation 11
12 US Military MRO Market JSF And V-22 Will Have The Greatest MRO Growth Through 2019 The F-16 Market Drops By $1.7B The Winners. And The Losers Program Delays And Life Extensions Could Significantly Change This Picture Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Avation 12
13 US Military MRO Market Sikorsky Aircraft Show The Greatest Growth In MRO Spend Through US Military Aircraft MRO Forecast By OEM OEM, CAGR Total CAGR = 0.9% All Values In 2009 U.S. Dollars Source: AeroStrategy / OAG Aviation 13
14 Agenda Military MRO in Perspective Military MRO U.S. Details Winners & Losers Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Key Sustainment Trends & Implications For Industry
15 Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Sustainment Includes Four Additional Non-MRO Services Maintenance Training Airframe Depot Pilot Training Engine Overhaul Non-MRO Services MRO Services Sustaining Eingineering Component Repair Supply Chain Management Field Maintenance 15
16 Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Six Regional Studies Are Planned For 2009 / 2010 Region Planned Start Planned Completion Countries For Detailed Profiling* Europe A Feb 2009Complete May 2009 Middle East & Africa July 2009Complete November2009 UK FRANCE GERMANY ITALY SPAIN PORTUGAL NORWAY SAUDI ARABIA ISRAEL UNITED ARAB EMIRATES JORDAN KUWAIT EGYPT SWEDEN NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND BELGIUM FINLAND DENMARK OMAN BAHRAIN QATAR MOROCCO SOUTH AFRICA North America July 2009Complete November 2009 UNITED STATES CANADA Europe B December 2009 April2010 Asia Pacific January 2009 May 2010 Latin America February 2010 May 2010 AUSTRIA TURKEY GREECE POLAND HUNGARY SLOVENIA JAPAN S.KOREA TAIWAN PAKISTAN AUSTRALIA INDIA BRAZIL CHILE ARGENTINA COLOMBIA CROATIA CZECH REPUBLIC ROMANIA BULGARIA SLOVAKIA THAILAND SINGAPORE MALAYSIA INDONESIA PHILIPPINES MEXICO PERU ECUADOR URUGUAY EL SALVADOR Source: AeroStrategy Regional Military Aircraft Sustainment Studies 16
17 Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Addition Sustainment Services Increase The Market By $11B 2009 U.S. Military Aircraft Sustainment Market $43B Source: AeroStrategy Regional Military Aircraft Sustainment Studies
18 Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Total Sustainment Market Will Remain Flat Through U.S. Military Aircraft Sustainment Forecast Service Type, CAGR Total CAGR = 0% All Values In 2009 U.S. Dollars Source: AeroStrategy Regional Military Aircraft Sustainment Studies 18
19 Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View The Approach To Sustainment Is Captured For Each Platform Sustainment Services By Aircraft Type Platform Beechjet C-130 C-135 C-17 C-5 Airframe Depot Outsourced to L-3 Vertex Organic at WRALC and outsourced to AAII and LMALC Organic at OCALC Outsourced to Boeing IDS performed at WRALC Organic at WRALC Engine Maintenance Outsourced to Pratt & Whitney Outsourced to Kelly Aviation Center Organic at OCALC Outsourced to Pratt & Whitney Outsourced to Kelly Aviation Center Component Overhaul Outsourced to L-3 Vertex Organic at WRALC with multiple suppliers Organic at OCALC with multiple suppliers Outsourced to Boeing IDS Organic at WRALC with multiple suppliers Field Maintenance Outsourced to L-3 Vertex Organic at Squadron Organic at Squadron Organic at Squadron Organic at Squadron Supply Chain and Inventory Management Outsourced to L-3 Vertex Organic at WRALC Organic at OCALC Outsourced to Boeing IDS Organic at WRALC Engineering and Technical Services Outsourced to L-3 Vertex Organic at WRALC Organic at OCALC Outsourced to Boeing IDS Organic at WRALC Training Outsourced to L-3 Vertex Organic Organic Organic except type training Pilot training organic with maintenance training outsourced Completely Outsourced Partially Outsourced Organic Information unavailable Source: AeroStrategy Regional Military Aircraft Sustainment Studies 19
20 Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Overall, Component And Engine Overhaul Are The Most Heavily Outsourced Services 2009 U.S. Military Aircraft Sustainment Market US$43 Billion $13.1 $7.0 $5.2 $4.3 $3.7 $2.9 $2.7 $2.1 Outsourced Organic Field Airframe Component Engine Supply Chain Management Engineering Services Pilot Training Maintenance Training Source: AeroStrategy Regional Military Aircraft Sustainment Studies 20
21 Agenda Military MRO in Perspective Military MRO U.S. Details Winners & Losers Military Aircraft Sustainment A Broader View Key Sustainment Trends & Implications For Industry
22 Key Military MRO Trends Three Key Military MRO Trends 1 Key Military MRO Trends and Issues The Economy s Impact On The Industry U.S. Military MRO Outlook Smoke On The Horizon? 2 3 Shifting Mission Mix US Government Move To Insource Presented by Hal Chrisman, Principal AeroStrategy LLC Military MRO Conference Phoenix, AZ 22 April 2010 Ann Arbor, Michigan Amersham, U.K. Singapore 22
23 Key Military MRO Trends The Economic Crisis Combined With OEF And OIF Has Pushed The Deficit To More Than $1.2 Trillion In The Economy s Impact On The Industry Source: US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis 23
24 Key Military MRO Trends The Resulting Budget Pressures Have Halted A Significant Growth In Military Spending 1 The Economy s Impact On The Industry Base budget grows 4.1% to $534 billion OCO / Supplemental drops from $142B to $130B (-8.5%) as efforts begin to move OCO into baseline budget Overall, defense budget is flat, Underlying details are telling Source: DoD FY 2010 Budget Request Summary Justification 24
25 Key Military MRO Trends Increases In Military Personnel And O&M Budgets Are Offset By Declines In Other Budgets 1 The Economy s Impact On The Industry Combined Base and OCO / Supplemental Budgets - US$ (Millions) Change Percent Milpers 142, ,602 6, % O&M 268, ,783 6, % Procurement 130, ,835 (1,251) -1.0% RDT&E 79,939 78,873 (1,066) -1.3% Mil Const 24,004 22,385 (1,619) -6.7% Family Housing 3,158 1,959 (1,199) -38.0% Revolving Funds 4,003 3,517 (486) -12.1% Stimulus 7,000 0 (7,000) % Misc 2,687 3,887 1, % Total 662, ,841 1, % With Declining Procurement Budgets, Many OEMs Must Turn To Sustainment For Growth Source: DoD FY 2010 Budget Request Summary Justification 25
26 Key Military MRO Trends Operational Need For Vertical Lift Will Drive A Shift In MRO Spend 3 Shifting Mission Mix MRO Forecast By Mission Helicopter Fleet Growth V UH-60/SH UH AH Current Warfighter Requirements Are Driving Increased Use Of Vertical Lift Source: AeroStrategy 26
27 Key Military MRO Trends In-Sourcing Is Also A Hot Topic With Direction Coming From The Top 3 US Government Move To In-source Three General Categories Of In-Sourcing 1: Authorization for 33,400 new civilian DoD Employees April 6, 2009 Secretary Gates announced that the DoD would scale back the use of contractors in support services April 8, 2009 the Comptroller signed Resource Management Decision (RMD) 802 realigning resources for the increasing funding for 33,400 new civilian employees, 10,000 of which are for the Defense Acquisition Workforce Commonly perceived to be focused on the acquisition workforce However, specifically tells DoD Components that they should not construe the RMD as limiting or mandating insourcing to specific object classes or to the acquisition workforce. General Perception Focused on White Collar, Acquisition Positions / Control Source: May 28, 2009 Lynne Memo 27
28 Key Military MRO Trends Changing The Responsibility For PSIs Is Also A Part Of In- Sourcing 3 US Government Move To In-source Three General Categories Of In-Sourcing 2: Change in Product Support Integrator Role October 27, 2009 President Obama signed the National Defense Authorization Act of 2010 Section 805 requires that the product support manager role be performed by a properly qualified member of the armed forces or full-time employee of the Department of Defense (DOD). Driven by major perceived failures of contractors filling the PSI role in programs such as Deepwater and FCS Effectively a move to regain ultimate decision making authority in the product support area General Perception Focused on Decision Making Authority / Control Source: National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year
29 Key Military MRO Trends Bringing MRO Programs In House Is The Third Element 3 US Government Move To In-source Three General Categories Of In-Sourcing 3: In-sourcing of MRO activities In the past several years, there have been a notable number of announcements of in-sourcing engine, component and airframe work. For example Recent announcement that OCALC is establishing capability for the F117 engine for the C-17, currently performed by Pratt & Whitney and United Services Similarly, OCALC is making plans to bring the T56 (C-130) and the TF39 engines in house. Both have been maintained at Kelly Aviation in San Antonio General Perception Focused on touch labor jobs Source: AeroStrategy 29
30 Key Military MRO Trends The In-Sourcing Issue Raises A Number Of Important Questions 3 US Government Move To In-source What does available financial data say about the relative cost of organic versus outsourced work, especially PBL? How does mission readiness compare under organic and outsourced situations? If PBL success stories are accurate, how can this reversal deliver cost savings as well? What are the potential impacts of in-sourcing on the industrial base? Could in-souring have measurable impacts on other parts of the economy? Could in-sourcing have an impact on the aerospace trade balance? Need Constructive Discussion Between OSD, Depots, OEMs and Independents Source: AeroStrategy 30
31 Key Messages The global military fleet of 38,500 aircraft is part of a total fleet of over 110,000 turbine powered aircraft across all segments This fleet generates over half of the $120B global MRO market Military MRO is the largest segment in North America in Europe and Asia, it is Air Transport MRO Globally, the military MRO market grows slowly at 1.2% CAGR The US Military flies over 14,000 aircraft which generate more than $32B in MRO demand Decline in Reset could result in a near-term dip in the market The F-35 and V-22 both show $1.4B in MRO growth by 2019; The F-16 market declines by $1.7B Additional sustainment services increase the US market to $43B Component repair and engine overhaul are the most outsourced The economy is impacting government budgets and the fiscal environment of suppliers Vertical lift is increasing in importance In-sourcing raises important questions and constructive dialogue is needed 31
32 Thank You For Your Attention! AeroStrategy is a specialist management consulting firm devoted to aviation and aerospace sectors with offices in Ann Arbor, Michigan, Amersham, U.K., and Singapore To learn more about AeroStrategy please contact: David Stewart, Partner Ph: dstewart@aerostrategy.com Kevin Michaels, Partner Ph: kmichaels@aerostrategy.com Hal Chrisman, Principal Ph: hchrisman@aerostrategy.com 32
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