When is the business aviation upturn coming and what role does the Mediterranean market play?
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1 AEROSPACE INFORMATION REDEFINED When is the business aviation upturn coming and what role does the Mediterranean market play? Mediterranean Business Aviation 13 th September 2013 Daniel Hall Ascend Advisory Flightglobal Group ascendworldwide.com
2 Flightglobal and Ascend
3 Flightglobal business lines
4 Flightglobal Ascend Global Offices
5 Overview Europe and the Mediterranean What part do they play? The global picture - The not so good news Med or the ROW? Who to watch out for Reasons to be positive Ascend s outlook for the business jet sector?
6 Business Jet Aviation Today Global Fleet and Delivery Data , Delivery Total Total In service / stored 2003 Low point for deliveries 531 1, Peak year for deliveries 8,417 delivered since Y Average p/yr (to end-2012)
7 Business Jets Globally A Long Term Growth Market Number of In-Service / Stored Business Jets In-Service / Stored Total 2013 YTD end-aug
8 Overview Europe and the Mediterranean What part do they play? The global picture - The not so good news Med or the ROW? Who to watch out for Reasons to be positive Ascend s outlook for the business jet sector?
9 European BizJet Fleet Inventory Growth or not so Europe In-Service & Stored Italy 6% Portugal 8% Switzerland 9% Others Finland Denmark Russia France Malta Turkey Swiss Austria UK Germany Top 10 Countries Operate 75% of the 2,792 European BizJet Fleet Spain 6% Turkey 5% France 9% Germany 21% UK 19% Russia 4% Austria 13% Operator Location of New Deliveries since Jan
10 Mediterranean Countries used in Ascend s Analysis France 189 Italy 134 Spain 121 Turkey Malta Israel Greece Med' Countries 4% ROW 96% Egypt 29 Morocco 27 Slovenia 21 Lebanon 19 Libya 12 Cyprus 10 Algeria 8 Tunisia 4 Montenegro 4 Monaco 4 Croatia 4 Syria 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 Palestine 1
11 Mediterranean Fleet Growth 823 bizjets in-service / stored today New deliveries since Jan 2012 Israel, 1 Cyprus, 2 Morocco, Turkey, 11 France, 8 Greece, Spain, 2 Slovenia, 1 Malta, 10 Italy, 5 Lebanon, 1 Monaco, 1 France - only Italy - only Egypt, Malta, Morocco, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey Med 80% in a corporate role; 10% with Government / Heads of State, 10% Other
12 Largest Operators and Most Dominant Types Top 10 Operators by Fleet Size Top 10 Types by Fleet Size Falcon 7X, 19 Challenger 605, 18 Gulfstream G550, 18 Citation Mustang, 38 Citation II, Falcon 2000, 19 Citation Sovereign, 19 Challenger 604, 20 Falcon 50, 21 Citation XLS, 21 Citation II and Mustang have an 8% share of the total Mediterranean fleet
13 How about Malta? Business Jet Fleet has witnessed rapid growth since Today s fleet of 53 includes 9 bizliners and 20 Large / ULR aircraft Since conference one year ago, fleet has doubled
14 Business Liner ( Bizliner ) Jets Established global fleet led by 112 x BBJ1 and 68 x ACJ319 aircraft Embraer s Lineage joined from 2007 today numbers Business Liner Historical Fleet Trends (since Y1998) Y1998 Y1999 Y2000 Y2001 Y2002 Y2003 Y2004 Y2005 Y2006 Y2007 Y2008 Y2009 Y2010 Y2011 Y2012 Y2013 Boeing BBJ3 Airbus ACJ320 Embraer Lineage Airbus ACJ318 Boeing BBJ2 Airbus ACJ319 Boeing BBJ1
15 Business Liner ( Bizliner ) Jets LATAM / Caribbean 8% Middle East 25% Europe 26% Asia- Pacific 20% North America 15% Unknown area Africa 3% 3% Private / Gov't / Corporate 40% Air Taxi / Charter 33% OEM 2% Airline 6% Bank, SPC / Lessor 1% Fractional Operator 2% Military / Gov't Operator 16%
16 Overview Europe and the Mediterranean What part do they play? The global picture - The not so good news Med or the ROW? Who to watch out for Reasons to be positive Ascend s outlook for the business jet sector?
17 Global New Deliveries Not such a smooth history 1400 Number of New Business Jet Deliveries New Deliveries 2013 YTD end-aug
18 New Business Jet Deliveries Stable, but no recovery yet Business Jet New Deliveries North America Latin America and Caribbean Africa Unknown area Europe Asia-Pac Middle East Ascend 2013 Remaining Delivery Forecast Challenger 300 remains the leader (just like in 2012) at 31 new deliveries G550 (29), Global 6000 (24), Falcon 7X (23) and G650 (22) follow to signify dominance of top-end types
19 Delivery trend shows move to larger sizes 100% 90% Bizliner Percentage of Deliveries 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Heavy Medium Light-Medium Light Entry Level 10% VLJ 0% Delivery Year When looking at value of deliveries, large / heavy segments become a ~50% share
20 Second-hand Market Sales Transactions Improvement, but not a great 2013 so far Business Jet Used Sales Transactions North America Latin America and Caribbean Africa Unknown area Europe Asia-Pac Middle East H1 sales total of 1,550 versus 1,724 in H High % (79) in North America versus an average of 72% over past six years
21 The Downturn was Severe for all Segments Market Value Relative Performance to Q % 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% MARKET VALUE TRENDS ALL SEGMENTS, RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q Q1'07 Q3'07 Q1'08 Q3'08 Q1'09 Q3'09 Q1'10 Q3'10 Q1'11 Q3'11 Q1'12 Q3'12 Q1'13 Q3'13 Source: Ascend Online Values (V1) VLJ, ENTRY, LIGHT LIGHT MID MED SUPER MID LARGE HEAVY LARGE ULR BIZLINER
22 Medium / Super Mid-Size Sector: Competition has shaped value trends Market Value Relative Performance to Q % 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% MARKET VALUE TRENDS MEDIUM / SUPER MID-SIZE SECTOR. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q Q1'07 Q3'07 Q1'08 Q3'08 Q1'09 Q3'09 Q1'10 Q3'10 Q1'11 Q3'11 Q1'12 Q3'12 Q1'13 Q3' Citation X 2005 Falcon Falcon 2000EX EASy 2007 IAI G Challenger Challenger Falcon 900C 2002 Falcon 900EX 2007 Falcon 900EX EASy Source: Ascend Online Values (V1)
23 Light / Mid-Size Sector: Split identified in recent years Market Value Relative Performance to Q % 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% MARKET VALUE TRENDS LIGHT / MID-SIZE SECTOR. RELATIVE PERFORMANCE TO Q Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Q3' Citation Excel 2006 Citation XLS 2008 Citation XLS Citation Sovereign 2002 Hawker 800XP 2002 Learjet Learjet 45XR 2003 Learjet Learjet 60XR 2008 Hawker 900XP 2008 Hawker 850XP 2000 IAI Astra SPX 2009 Gulfstream G150 Source: Ascend Online Values (V1)
24 Overview Europe and the Mediterranean What part do they play? The global picture - The not so good news Med or the ROW? Who to watch out for Reasons to be positive Ascend s outlook for the business jet sector?
25 The US is still the largest market - by some distance Business Jet Geographical Distribution Europe 15% North America 64% LATAM & Carib 12% Asia Pacific 5% Unknown 0% Middle East 2% Africa 2% US share alone is 61%
26 Emerging markets are driving fleet growth Argentina 155 India 160 Germany 431 Hong Kong 107 Operator Country Austria Venezuela United Kingdom China Fleet Size Today 210 Canada 512 Mexico 757 Brazil Absolute Fleet Growth Top 10 omitting Number 1: USA. Growth of 1,227 a/c from 10,609 to 11,836
27 Overview Europe and the Mediterranean What part do they play? The global picture - The not so good news Med or the ROW? Who to watch out for Reasons to be positive Ascend s outlook for the business jet sector?
28 Reasons to be positive (particularly for Bombardier): Large firm order backlogs from NetJets and VistaJet NetJets VistaJet NetJets - just over 200 on order incl 75 x CL350s & 42 x P300s Over 100 with VistaJet 28 x Global 6000s and 50 x Global 5000s
29 New models seek to stimulate demand 2013 Learjet 70,75, Falcon 2000S & LXS Citation M2, Sovereign 2014 Legacy 500, Eclipse 550 Challenger 350, Lear 85 HondaJet 2015 Citation Latitude Cirrus SF50, Legacy Global 7000 / /18 Citation Longitude BBJ-Max, Pilatus PC24
30 Steady Growth in Annual Deliveries Forecast 1,200 Forecast New Business Jet Deliveries 1, Very Light Jet Entry Level Light Light/Medium Medium Heavy Bizliner Forecast shift to the right recovery not on as early as expected Light segments forecast to take longer to recover
31 Ascend and Business Aviation Data & Information Market Intelligence Valuations / Appraisals Market Value Base Value Future Values Maintenance and Spec, and Utilisation Adjusted Market Commentaries Portfolio Service Full Helicopter Coverage Business Turboprop Coverage Business Jet Delivery Forecast Management Consultancy Team with wideranging experience in biz-av projects Sector Expertise US EU Asia China Middle East Supporting key market participants OEMs, financiers, lessors, investors, operators The information contained in our databases and used in this presentation has been assembled from many sources, and whilst the utmost care has been taken to ensure accuracy, the information is supplied on the understanding that no legal liability whatsoever shall attach to Ascend, its subsidiaries, their officers, or employees in respect of any error or omission that may have occurred.
32 32
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