Overview of political and governance issues

Transcription

1 Overview of political and governance issues Kevin Evans Indonesia Director, Australia Indonesia Centre IABC/AIBC Conference November 2017, Surabaya

2 At the time of the Presidential elections Pro Jokowi-JK Cross bench Anti Jokowi-JK 37% of seats 0% of seats 63% of seats Supporters of losing team remain solid

3 By August 2015 Pro Jokowi-JK Cross bench Anti Jokowi-JK 53% of seats 11% of seats 36% of seats PAN under new leadership quit the Red and White Coalition and go for Indonesia is Great Coalition

4 In 2017 Pro Jokowi-JK Cross bench Anti Jokowi-JK 69% of seats 11% of seats 20% of seats The President has a comfortable fat coalition

5 Presidential System: with friends like these! Pro Jokowi-JK Cross bench Anti Jokowi-JK 69% of seats 11% of seats 20% of seats The New Law-in- Lieu of Law on Mass Orgs saw PAN oppose and Demokrat support

6 Less corrupt More corrupt Indonesia is the red diamond. New global CPI methodology used As you see at the end of the 1990s Indonesia was at the bottom of the world. Progress was very patchy until 2004 when the KPK was established. Progress since has been steady. As the country goes forward there will be a need to reach beyond enforcement to make further progress on prevention (systems improvements) eg ease of doing business Source: Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index: Assorted findings

7 This chart shows how Indonesia compares with other countries in its near neighbourhood. Perceptions reports are useful as they can provide a guide to how people are seeing developments. However, perceptions are not always the same as reality. Source: Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index: Assorted findings

8 Ease of doing business The World Bank has established this measurement Progress is taking place bit it is still very low. No need for Australian complacency either Economy Yr 2010 Yr 2018 Change NZ Singapore Korea Australia Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Japan Vietnam Indonesia China India Philippines

9 A closer look at Indonesia Category of issue Indonesia Rank Total Ease of Doing Business Rank Getting Electricity Resolving insolvency Protecting minority investors Getting Credit Registering property Deaking with construction permits Trading across borders Paying taxes Starting a business Enforcing contracts (out of 190) Source: World Bank

10 Micro-reforms the President s core skill Clearly the President s focus on micro-reforms is spot-on after a generation of big visions Moving to include a focus on corruption prevention Dealing with complexities of doing business, recent tax development too Pushing through the spoilers to get infrastructure moving History may now be demanding more than improvements in microreforms

11 Macro challenges emerging Recent developments call for the President to be the ideologue-in-chief

12

13

14 Macro challenges emerging Recent developments call for the President to be the ideologue-in-chief The fight for the soul of Indonesia religious bullying in the private domain Moral panics The spectre of Indonesian nativism shadows of Malaysia? Dog whistles on equity and no slip of the tongue Re-energising Pancasila in a post-soeharto way Facing a resurgent China on many fronts Ahok was a lightning rod for all these issues Political masculism and the rise of national tough guy leaders In 2014 Indonesian rejected this leader but not the idea Economic nationalism alive and well

15

16 A closer look inside Indonesia City Overall average Starting a Business Dealing with Construction Permits Registering Property Yogyakarta, DI Yogyakarta Palembang, South Sumatra Balikpapan, East Kalimantan Bandung, West Java Banda Aceh, Aceh Mataram, West Nusa Tenggara Jambi, Jambi Jakarta, DKI Jakarta Pontianak, Wesrt Kalimantan Semarang, Central Java Gorontalo, Gorontalo Palangka Raya, Central Kalimantan Surakarta, Central Java Medan, North Sumatra Makassar, South Sulawesi Denpasar, Bali Surabaya, East Java Batam, Riau Archipelago Pekanbaru, Riau Manado, North Sulawesi Source: World Bank