Disclaimer Client reference

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1 This publication was prepared for the NSW Department of Planning and Environment in association with the Greater Sydney Commission for the purpose of district planning. No representation is made about the accuracy, completeness or suitability of the information in this document for any particular purpose nor should be assumed that the contents of the document represent the views of the NSW Government. The NSW Government its agents, consultants or employees shall not be liable for any damage which may occur to any person or organisation taking action or not on the basis of this publication. Readers should seek appropriate advice when applying the information to their specific needs. This document may be subject to revision without notice.

2 Project director Project manager Project Code Chris Abery Matthew Lee matthew.lee@deependservices.com.au DP1602 Client reference Date 31 May 2016 Disclaimer This report has been prepared by Deep End Services Pty Ltd solely for use by the party to whom it is addressed. Accordingly, any changes to this report will only be notified to that party. Deep End Services Pty Ltd, its employees and agents accept no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage which may arise from the use or reliance on this report or any information contained therein by any other party and gives no guarantees or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report.

3 Table of Contents 1. Introduction Background Study brief Study area Methodology Interim estimates Retailer type categories Spatial breakdown Data sources Department stores Discount department stores Supermarkets Specialty retail Large format retail floorspace Data currency Data limitations Sydney retail provision Summary of results Total retail provision by retailer type Retail provision by District Retail provision by LGA Retail demand projections Supermarket accessibility Figures Figure 1: Sydney Metropolitan Area, Districts and LGAs... 1 Figure 2: Google Earth Pro... 5 Figure 3: Google Streetview... 5 Figure 4: Retail floorspace provision in Sydney Metropolitan Region... 8 Figure 5: Supermarket accessibility analysis Tables Table 1: Data sources... 3 Table 2: Retail floorspace provision by type, Sydney Table 3: Retail floorspace summary by District, Table 4: Retail floorspace provision rate summary by District, Table 5: Retail floorspace summary by LGA Table 6: Retail floorspace provision rate summary by LGA, Table 7: Growth in average retail provision (Medium series) Table 8: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (LOW projection) Table 9: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (MEDIUM projection) Table 10: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (HIGH projection)... 15

4 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background A Plan for Growing Sydney ( The Plan ) is the NSW State Government s strategic plan to sustain strong growth in the Sydney Metropolitan Region over the next 20 years. The Plan responds to population projections which predict that Sydney will grow by 1.6 million people over that period, well in excess of recent historic growth. Action of The Plan states that the Government has committed to support local councils to plan for adequate retail and commercial capacity in centres by developing demand and supply data sets for office and retail development. The creation of a reliable retail floorspace dataset will help to accurately forecast demand, assess future land requirements and assist councils and infrastructure providers to plan for growth. The information will also assist in the preparation of District Plans. 1.2 Study brief Deep End Services has been commissioned to undertake an investigation of retail floorspace demand and supply across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. The overall purposes of the study are as follows: Stage 1: Estimate demand for retail floorspace generated by projected population growth, at Local Government Area ( LGA ) and District-level scales for 2021, 2026, and 2031; Stage 2: Prepare a comprehensive database of the existing supply of retail floorspace in the Sydney Metropolitan Area, and refine the results of Stage 1 in light of these findings; and Stage 3: Provide recommendations on monitoring future retail floorspace supply. This report presents findings from Part 2 of the study brief, consisting of detailed estimates and further analysis of the existing supply of retail floorspace at individual centres across the Sydney Metropolitan Area. 1.3 Study area Analysis is conducted for the Sydney Metropolitan Area and individual Districts as defined in The Plan and set out below. Figure 1: Sydney Metropolitan Area, Districts and LGAs deep end services pty ltd 1

5 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1 Interim estimates Interim estimates of the existing supply of retail floorspace were prepared during Stage 1 of this project. These were based on a methodology for estimating the average per capital demand for retail floorspace, with an implicit assumption that the demand and supply of retail floorspace is in balance. The Stage 1 analysis concluded that the average retail floorspace provision rate in the Sydney Metropolitan Region was 2.41 sqm per capita in 2015, with total retail floorspace therefore estimated at million sqm at that time. The interim estimates were formulated using a combination of the following: Actual supply data: Floorspace survey results from the City of Sydney Floorspace and Employment Survey Actual floorspace data for major store types Estimates of average floorspace provision for: Large format retail based on analysis of total LFR sales and translation into floorspace Specialty retail store types based on interstate datasets. Stage 2 estimates adopt a more detailed methodology that includes street-based analysis of individual centres and incorporation of other data sources. 2.2 Retailer type categories Estimates of retail floorspace supply for individual centres in Sydney are prepared for the following retailer types: Department stores All Myer and David Jones stores Discount department stores All Big W, Target (including Target Country), Kmart and Harris Scarfe stores Supermarkets All stores operated by Woolworths (including those branded Safeway), Coles (including those still trading as Bi Lo), and ALDI All other supermarkets (for example those operated by IGA, Foodworks, Supabarn and Aboutlife) where the floorspace is in excess of 1,000sqm Smaller stores less than 1,000sqm are included as specialty retail except where operated by the major brands Large format retailers Retail businesses predominantly involved in the sale, hire or display of automotive parts and accessories, floor and window coverings, electrical goods, furniture, hardware, garden and pool supplies, homewares, baby goods, sporting equipment, camping equipment and outdoor gear, office goods, party supplies and pet supplies This retailer category does not distinguish on the basis of shop location or store size, and so includes smaller shops selling these categories of goods even where they are located within traditional shopping centres or strip centres Specialty retailers All other retailers, including grocery and convenience stores, specialty food stores, liquor stores, cafés, restaurants, takeaway food stores, clothing shops, shoes and other accessories shops, jewellers, chemists, newsagents, bookshops, variety stores, travel goods, music stores, florists, footwear repairs, hair & beauty salons, laundrettes and dry cleaners, and optometrists. deep end services pty ltd 2

6 2.3 Spatial breakdown The total coverage for the retail supply dataset is the Sydney Metropolitan Region as a whole (refer Figure 1). Within this region, retail floorspace estimates have been produced for individual polygon shapes which represent activity centres or business precincts. A total of 1,463 centres are defined for which retail floorspace has been measured or estimated. The definition of centres is based on the location of business zones in individual Local Environmental Plans. Other centres have been created from selected industrial zones or other known precincts. No data has been presented for individual centres or precincts within the City of Sydney where the Floorspace and Employment Survey provides an alternative and comprehensive source for local retail floorspace provision. Table 1: Data sources Retailer type Shopping centre Strip retail Homemaker centre Highway precinct Industrial precinct Department stores ).... Discount department stores ) )... Supermarkets (> 1,000sqm) ) ) ) ) ) Specialty retail ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) Large format retail ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) Legend Deep End Services ) Google Earth / Streetview ) PCA Shoppng Centre Directory ) LFR Directory ) Other ) Not relevant. 2.4 Data sources The Sydney retail supply data incorporates a number of different data sources and methodologies depending on the retailer type, shopping formats and geography, as summarised in Table 1. A detailed description of the way that these data sources are used for each retailer type is presented below. deep end services pty ltd 3

7 2.5 Department stores Deep End Services has a full database of the size and location of department stores in Sydney. This data is geocoded to the relevant shopping centre. 2.6 Discount department stores Deep End Services has a complete database of the size and location of discount department stores in Sydney. This data is geocoded to the relevant shopping centre. 2.7 Supermarkets Supermarket floorspace refers to stores in excess of 1,000sqm or operated by the major brands. Deep End Services has an accurate database of major supermarkets. This data is geocoded to the relevant shopping centre or precinct. Smaller supermarkets are captured as part of Specialty retailer floorspace (refer below). 2.8 Specialty retail Estimates of specialty retail floorspace for each centre are generated as follows: Shopping centres Where shopping centre floorspace information is published in the Property Council of Australia s Shopping Centre Directory 2015 (New South Wales and ACT), this information is used to estimate the split between Specialty retail floorspace and Large format retail floorspace. The process is as follows: Exclude shopping centre floorspace associated with department stores, discount department stores and supermarkets For mini major floorspace, distribute to Specialty and Large format retail according to information in relevant Urbis Shopping Centre Benchmarks publications depending on the type of centre. The Urbis benchmark category Homewares is used to describe Large format retail mini majors For the remaining floorspace, distribute to Specialty and Large format retail according to information in relevant Urbis Shopping Centre Benchmarks publications for different types of centres. Large format retail type retailers consist of Homewares and other categories such as sporting goods and automotive accessories. Where floorspace information is not contained within the PCA Shopping Centre Directory, internet searches are made to determine the overall size of the centre, and published centre directories are used to distribute by retailer type. In some circumstances (usually for small centres) no information is available. In these cases, an estimate is made of the total building area and the potential tenancy floorspace (ie excluding pedestrian mall space), and floorspace is distributed by type according to typical proportions or using directory boards where these are visible on Google Streetview. Strip centres Specialty retailers occupying tenancies outside managed shopping centres are estimated using a combination of Google Earth Pro and Google Streetview. The process is as follows: Centres and precincts are divided into smaller subareas for ease of measurement These subareas are drawn into Google Earth Pro to define the leasable space by excluding car parking, access and other outdoor areas (refer Figure 2) Lot boundaries are overlaid into Google Earth Pro to assist in estimating the distribution of businesses by type Google Streetview is used to travel along each street frontage within the subarea and to allocate each tenancy/business to retail and non-retail categories (refer Figure 3) Where upper level tenancies are evident this area is added into the dataset and allocated by type Retail floorspace is captured for all businesses within the centre boundary (as defined by the planning zone), as well as for retailers in the immediate environs that should be considered within the centre in question In instances where shop names are not visible or frontages are obscured (including for example within arcades) the distribution of floorspace by type is based on previous examples or from directories observable on Streetview or from other sources In cases where individual businesses occupy larger sites, the area of the building is measured directly in Google Earth Pro. deep end services pty ltd 4

8 Figure 2: Google Earth Pro Figure 3: Google Streetview For a number of centres retail floorspace data has been sourced from recent studies undertaken by Deep End Services or other consultants. These examples include Liverpool (where HillPDA data has been used for shopfront floorspace, with some minor adjustments made for recent known developments), Narellan, Camden, Campbelltown and some other smaller centres in the Macarthur region where Deep End Services has undertaken street-level retail floorspace surveys in recent years. Homemaker centres Where homemaker centres have provided tenancy listings to the Large Format Retail Directory (prepared by Deep End Services), this data is used to generate an accurate measurement of specialty retailing occurring within these centres. Where LFR Directory data is not available the same methods are used as for strip shopping centres: measurements and estimates from Google Earth Pro and Google Streetview combined with other data sources such as internet sites, directory boards and so on. Highway precincts The LFR Directory includes measurements of retail floorspace (Large format and Specialty) for a small number of defined Large format retail precincts at Auburn (Parramatta Road), Castle Hill and Penrith. This data incorporates Specialty (ie non-lfr) retail floorspace in these precincts. For other highway precincts floorspace estimates are based on available information held by Deep End Services (eg from retail clients) and the use of Google Earth Pro and Streetview as described above. Industrial precincts Specialty retail floorspace in industrial precincts is based on a combination of the following: Examination of Deep End Services geocoded retail business database to determine those retail businesses located within industrial zones. In these instances, floorspace is generated using data held by Deep End Services (where available) or estimated by applying typical average floorspace for individual types of businesses (eg an estimate of 120sqm for every café located within an industrial estate). For selected industrial areas with more significant retail occupancy (eg Artarmon) a more detailed analysis has been undertaken using Google Earth Pro and Google Streetview as described above. 2.9 Large format retail floorspace Large format retail floorspace is generally measured or estimated using the process described under Specialty retail in Section 2.8 above, but with greater reliance on information from the LFR Directory (where available) and from floorspace data held by Deep End Services for individual retail clients Data currency Although the Sydney retail floorspace supply data is presented for 2015, the actual currency of individual estimates varies considerably depending on the sources and methods described above. Floorspace information for major store operators (department stores, discount department stores and supermarkets) is believed to be current as at November Data in the PCA Shopping Centre Directory is compiled over the period October 2014 to February Data from the LFR Directory is compiled over the period May 2015 to August Data captured using Google Streetview relies on imagery generally from January to June 2014 and from February to July deep end services pty ltd 5

9 Some other sources are slightly older (2013) but an attempt has been made to update for major retail changes. Data from the City of Sydney Floorspace and Employment Survey is from 2012 but a number of adjustments have been made for known developments since then Data limitations Every attempt has been made to ensure that the information in the Sydney retail floorspace supply database is as accurate as possible by reducing the possibility of systemic bias during the estimation process. Nevertheless, in many cases floorspace estimates rely on judgements about whether a business is retail or non-retail, the size of the area likely to be leased, the use or otherwise of upper-level space and so on. In some instances, the estimates are made in the absence of Streetview or other sources to determine actual use of land, in which case estimates rely on previous experience in similar locations. The data is best used as an indication of the relative size, distribution and components of retail activity across Sydney, rather than as a detailed measurement of floorspace within individual centres. Notwithstanding these limitations and qualifications, we are confident that the data is the best estimate that can be made without actually undertaking floorspace surveys in person. Because the data relies on identifying areas (centres or precincts) in which retail activity is taking place, the likelihood is that it represents an under-estimate of total retail floorspace supply in the Sydney metropolitan region. This is because there is an amount of retail activity that cannot be collected by the use of Business Zones to identify the location of retail centres for further analysis. Examples of retail activity that may have been missed in the database includes the following: Milk bars and other individual neighbourhood shops within residential areas (required to be 80sqm or less in accordance with the LEP Standard Instrument) Showrooms and other retail activity not identified within industrial zones Retailing occurring in specific tourist or special use zones (eg Airports) Activities occurring in various rural zones, including garden centres and some tourist-related retailing Various stand-alone developments with existing use rights Retail occurring within office buildings but without any visible presence from the street (using Google Streetview) Service stations and fast food outlets occurring along highways and main roads and not within business zones. The total retail floorspace estimates presented in Section 3 includes an allowance of 5% of total retail floorspace associated with these and other examples of retailing not captured in the database. It is assumed that this 5% of missed floorspace applies equally in all local government areas other than the City of Sydney where it is assumed that the Floorspace and Employment Survey captured all retail activity. The missed floorspace is assumed to be either Specialty or Large format retailing, but no attempt is made to distribute to either of these retailer categories. deep end services pty ltd 6

10 3. SYDNEY RETAIL PROVISION 3.1 Summary of results A total of 10.3 million sqm of retail floorspace has been coded to individual centres in metropolitan Sydney or is located within the City of Sydney. This represents average provision of 2.25 sqm per capita. An additional 0.46 million sqm is assumed to have been missed during the estimation process, representing 5% of total floorspace for all local government areas other than the City of Sydney. Overall total retail floorspace located within the Sydney Metropolitan Area is estimated at million sqm in 2015, at an average provision rate of 2.35 sqm per capita. The interim estimates produced during Stage 1 were for total floorspace of million sqm. The total centre-based floorspace estimated during Stage 2 is therefore within approximately 6% of the top-down estimate produced in Stage 1. With the inclusion of a 5% balancing item to account for unmeasured floorspace, the Stage 2 estimates are within approximately 2% of the previous Stage 1 results. 3.2 Total retail provision by retailer type Total floorspace provision for the Sydney Metropolitan Area averages 2.35 sqm/capita, as set out in Table 2 which also provides a breakdown by retailer type. Retail floorspace data from the ABS Retail Census in 1991/2 shows that the average per capita floorspace provision rate was 1.85 sqm/capita at that time. The average per capita retail provision rate has therefore increased by 1.0% per year since 1992, which is broadly in line with results in other major cities where data is available, including Adelaide (1.6% pa between 1992 and 2007) and Perth (1.0% pa between 1992 and 2008). Total retail provision for 2015 is 6% higher than the provision rate of 2.2 sqm/capita that is often quoted when undertaking retail planning studies. However, many consultants have suspected that average floorspace provision is higher than the quoted figure. Table 2: Retail floorspace provision by type, Sydney 2015 Retailer type Floorspace ('000sqm) Av. provision (sqm/cap) Distribution (%) Department stores % Discount department stores % Supermarkets ( 1,000sqm) 1, % Specialty stores 5, % Large format retail 2, % Total centre-based 10, % Non-centres % Total estimated floorspace 10, % deep end services pty ltd 7

11 Figure 4: Retail floorspace provision in Sydney Metropolitan Region deep end services pty ltd 8

12 3.3 Retail provision by District Retail provision for each District by type is summarised in Table 3, with the resulting provision rates presented in Table 4. The analysis is based on the most recent NSW Government population projections. Average retail provision rates vary from a high of 3.47 sqm/cap in the Central District (containing the Sydney CBD, Bondi Junction and other concentrations), to a low of 1.93 sqm/cap in the South District. The variation in supermarket floorspace provision rates reflect the general difficulty in finding sites in inner metropolitan districts, as well as the greater diversity in alternative food specialty shopping. By contrast, specialty retail provision rates are higher in the inner city districts reflecting the greater spending on nonfood comparison shopping among other factors. Table 3: Retail floorspace summary by District, 2015 Total Sydney Metropolitan Region , , , , ,759.0 Table 4: Retail floorspace provision rate summary by District, 2015 Floorspace ('000 sqm) Average retail floorspace provision (sqm/capita) District Dept store Disc dept store Smkt (>1000sqm) Specialty Large format Total Noncentre Total Central District , , ,065.5 North District , ,913.6 South District , ,224.5 South West District , ,522.5 West District West Central District , ,288.2 District Dept store Disc dept store Smkt (>1000sqm) Specialty Large format Total Noncentre Total Central District North District South District South West District West District West Central District Total Sydney Metropolitan Region Large format retail provision rates are on average higher in outer districts where land can more readily be assembled for larger stores, although provision rates also reflect the location of specific large format retail precincts such as Parramatta Road Auburn and Artarmon. deep end services pty ltd 9

13 3.4 Retail provision by LGA Retail floorspace within individual LGAs is presented in Table 5, with the resulting average provision rates shown in Table 6. Differences in the provision rate for LGAs are much wider because they are influenced by the location of individual centres. Municipalities with very low provision rates include Kuring-gai, Kogarah and Randwick. High provision rates include Sydney as well as Willoughby, Botany Bay, Auburn and Burwood. Table 5: Retail floorspace summary by LGA 2015 Floorspace ('000 sqm) LGA Dept store Disc dept store Smkt (>1000sqm) Specialty Large format Total Noncentre Total Ashfield (A) Auburn (C) Bankstown (C) Blacktown (C) Blue Mountains (C) Botany Bay (C) Burwood (A) Camden (A) Campbelltown (C) Canada Bay (A) Canterbury (C) Fairfield (C) Hawkesbury (C) Holroyd (C) Hornsby (A) Hunters Hill (A) Hurstville (C) Kogarah (C) Ku-ring-gai (A) Lane Cove (A) Leichhardt (A) Liverpool (C) Manly (A) Marrickville (A) Mosman (A) North Sydney (A) Parramatta (C) Penrith (C) Pittwater (A) Randwick (C) Rockdale (C) Ryde (C) Strathfield (A) Sutherland Shire (A) Sydney (C) , , ,572.7 The Hills Shire (A) Warringah (A) Waverley (A) Willoughby (C) Wollondilly (A) Woollahra (A) Total Sydney Metropolitan Region , , , , ,759.0 deep end services pty ltd 10

14 Table 6: Retail floorspace provision rate summary by LGA, 2015 Average retail floorspace provision (sqm/capita) LGA Dept store Disc dept store Smkt (>1000sqm) Specialty Large format Total Noncentre Total Ashfield (A) Auburn (C) Bankstown (C) Blacktown (C) Blue Mountains (C) Botany Bay (C) Burwood (A) Camden (A) Campbelltown (C) Canada Bay (A) Canterbury (C) Fairfield (C) Hawkesbury (C) Holroyd (C) Hornsby (A) Hunters Hill (A) Hurstville (C) Kogarah (C) Ku-ring-gai (A) Lane Cove (A) Leichhardt (A) Liverpool (C) Manly (A) Marrickville (A) Mosman (A) North Sydney (A) Parramatta (C) Penrith (C) Pittwater (A) Randwick (C) Rockdale (C) Ryde (C) Strathfield (A) Sutherland Shire (A) Sydney (C) The Hills Shire (A) Warringah (A) Waverley (A) Willoughby (C) Wollondilly (A) Woollahra (A) Total Sydney Metropolitan Region deep end services pty ltd 11

15 3.5 Retail demand projections Projections of retail floorspace demand over the period 2015 to 2031 have been generated by applying future changes in average per capita provision rates to the official NSW Government population projections by LGA, updated to account for more recent ABS population estimates. Local factors affecting retail provision at the LGA level have not been incorporated into this analysis. Because of the uncertainty in making these long term forecasts, a range of projections are presented as Low, Medium and High series, with the annual growth rates in average per capita floorspace provision under the Low and High series varying by ±25%. Comparison of the 2015 estimated retail floorspace supply against ABS Retail Census data for 1991/2 shows that average per capita retail provision has increased over the last 23 years at an average rate of approximately 1.0% per annum, which is generally consistent with data from other cities such as Adelaide and Perth. Per capita retail floorspace growth has been most pronounced for supermarkets (2.4% pa) and large format retailing (2.3% pa), reflecting changes in the structure of these retail sectors. There are various reasons why the average per capita provision rate is unlikely to grow as rapidly in the future: Significant structural adjustments have occurred in the retail industry since 1992, including the emergence of homemaker centres containing LFR tenancies in large floorspace units, and a general increase in the preferred size of supermarkets. Similar structural adjustments in the future can t be foreseen at this time. The redevelopment of former industrial land in inner suburban locations for retail development has helped to expand the average provision rate, but this trend is unlikely to occur to the same extent in the future. Regulatory reform, including the removal of weekend trading restrictions, has fuelled growth in retail provision, but there are fewer remaining reforms that are likely to generate a similar stimulus. There is now greater competition for disposable income from other activities such as overseas holidays and other non-retail entertainment. Long term income growth is forecast to be lower than the historical average, with the implication being a downward effect on growth in disposable income. The ageing of the population, including a significant increase in retirees as a proportion of the population, would be likely to reduce the growth in average per capita retail provision. A share of retail expenditure is now being directed online where it doesn t support bricks and mortar retail premises, although there will be some demand for distribution warehouses, pick-up points and other physical space, some of which may be located within commercial centres. Further analysis has been undertaken to assess the potential impact of online retailing on average per capita retail provision. This analysis is based on the share of online retailing increasing from the current rate of approximately 6.5% according to the most recent NAB Online Sales Index, to a figure of 15% over the longer term. The effect of online retailing is likely to be most pronounced on floorspace demand for LFR and specialty floorspace, as these retailer types trade in goods and services that are experiencing the most significant growth in online sales. As a result, the Medium retail demand projection series applies a lower growth rate in average per capita retail demand over the projection period, and in particular for specialty retailing and the LFR sector (refer Table 7). Table 7: Growth in average retail provision (Medium series) Sqm per capita Growth (% pa) Retail type '92 - '15 '15 - '31 Dept. & disc. dept. stores % -0.41% Supermarkets % 1.49% Large format retail % 1.10% Specialty retail % 0.25% Total retail % 0.56% Notes: 1 estimated floorspace for smkts 1,000sqm; 2 includes 'non-centre' floorspace The growth rate in average per capita retail provision rate for the City of Sydney has been reduced further to account for the fact that a large share of retail supply in this region is generated by incoming workers rather than local residents. Under the Medium series, 4.28 million sqm of new retail floorspace will be required over the period 2015 to 2031 to satisfy projected demand, representing an average of 267,000 sqm of new retail floorspace to be accommodated each year. By 2031 total retail demand is projected to be a total of million sqm, having increased from the current estimated provision of million sqm as shown in Table 9. Tables 8 and 10 summarise the projections under the Low and High series, respectively. Average per capita provision is projected to increase from 2.35 sqm per capita in 2015 to 2.50 sqm/capita in 2026 and 2.56 sqm/capita in 2031 under the Medium projection. The largest contributions to retail demand will be generated in the West Central District where significant new population growth is anticipated, and in the Central District which serves much of the metropolitan area and tourist visitors. deep end services pty ltd 12

16 Table 8: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (LOW projection) Retail floorspace demand ('000 sqm) Additional retail requirement ('000 sqm) District/LGA Central District 3,066 3,372 3,605 3, Ashfield (A) Botany Bay (C) Burwood (A) Canada Bay (A) Leichhardt (A) Marrickville (A) Randwick (C) Strathfield (A) Sydney (C) 1,573 1,712 1,805 1, Waverley (A) Woollahra (A) North District 1,914 2,119 2,296 2, Hornsby (A) Hunters Hill (A) Ku-ring-gai (A) Lane Cove (A) Manly (A) Mosman (A) North Sydney (A) Pittwater (A) Ryde (C) Warringah (A) Willoughby (C) South District 1,225 1,356 1,469 1, Canterbury (C) Hurstville (C) Kogarah (C) Rockdale (C) Sutherland Shire (A) South West District 1,523 1,803 2,051 2, Camden (A) Campbelltown (C) Fairfield (C) Liverpool (C) Wollondilly (A) West Central District 2,288 2,671 3,020 3, ,094 Auburn (C) Bankstown (C) Blacktown (C) , Holroyd (C) Parramatta (C) The Hills Shire (A) West District , Blue Mountains (C) Hawkesbury (C) Penrith (C) Sydney Metropolitan Area 10,759 12,170 13,379 14,597 1,411 1,209 1,218 3,838 deep end services pty ltd 13

17 Table 9: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (MEDIUM projection) Retail floorspace demand ('000 sqm) Additional retail requirement ('000 sqm) District/LGA Central District 3,066 3,407 3,671 3, Ashfield (A) Botany Bay (C) Burwood (A) Canada Bay (A) Leichhardt (A) Marrickville (A) Randwick (C) Strathfield (A) Sydney (C) 1,573 1,730 1,838 1, Waverley (A) Woollahra (A) North District 1,914 2,143 2,344 2, Hornsby (A) Hunters Hill (A) Ku-ring-gai (A) Lane Cove (A) Manly (A) Mosman (A) North Sydney (A) Pittwater (A) Ryde (C) Warringah (A) Willoughby (C) South District 1,225 1,372 1,501 1, Canterbury (C) Hurstville (C) Kogarah (C) Rockdale (C) Sutherland Shire (A) South West District 1,523 1,824 2,096 2, Camden (A) Campbelltown (C) Fairfield (C) Liverpool (C) Wollondilly (A) West Central District 2,288 2,704 3,087 3, ,202 Auburn (C) Bankstown (C) Blacktown (C) , Holroyd (C) Parramatta (C) The Hills Shire (A) West District , Blue Mountains (C) Hawkesbury (C) Penrith (C) Sydney Metropolitan Area 10,759 12,310 13,658 15,034 1,551 1,348 1,377 4,275 deep end services pty ltd 14

18 Table 10: Retail floorspace demand projections by District and LGA, 2015 to 2031 (HIGH projection) Retail floorspace demand ('000 sqm) Additional retail requirement ('000 sqm) District/LGA Central District 3,066 3,440 3,736 4, Ashfield (A) Botany Bay (C) Burwood (A) Canada Bay (A) Leichhardt (A) Marrickville (A) Randwick (C) Strathfield (A) Sydney (C) 1,573 1,747 1,871 1, Waverley (A) Woollahra (A) North District 1,914 2,166 2,390 2, Hornsby (A) Hunters Hill (A) Ku-ring-gai (A) Lane Cove (A) Manly (A) Mosman (A) North Sydney (A) Pittwater (A) Ryde (C) Warringah (A) Willoughby (C) South District 1,225 1,387 1,532 1, Canterbury (C) Hurstville (C) Kogarah (C) Rockdale (C) Sutherland Shire (A) South West District 1,523 1,846 2,141 2, Camden (A) Campbelltown (C) Fairfield (C) Liverpool (C) Wollondilly (A) West Central District 2,288 2,736 3,154 3, ,311 Auburn (C) Bankstown (C) Blacktown (C) , Holroyd (C) Parramatta (C) The Hills Shire (A) West District , Blue Mountains (C) Hawkesbury (C) Penrith (C) Sydney Metropolitan Area 10,759 12,445 13,932 15,471 1,686 1,487 1,539 4,712 deep end services pty ltd 15

19 4. SUPERMARKET ACCESSIBILITY Figure 5 on the following page shows the amount of supermarket floorspace accessible within a 5-minute offpeak drive-time of each ABS-defined small Statistical Area (SA1). The areas shaded blue and green have low rates of supermarket accessibility from place of residence compared to areas with orange and red shading which have either larger or more numerous supermarket options close to home. The analysis shows that high supermarket provision rates exist close to major centres where a number of major supermarkets are located, and more generally in outer suburban areas where road congestion is lower and centres are planned with sufficient land to accommodate full-line supermarkets. Low supermarket provision rates exist in parts of the inner city (for example around Randwick) where roads are more congested and where new supermarket development is difficult to achieve having regard to the availability of land or the cost of development. Further out, low supermarket provision occurs throughout many North Shore suburbs on either side of the Pacific Highway where full line supermarkets are sparser and residents are required to do much of their shopping at smaller stores. Other areas of low provision include: The inner west suburbs around Campsie and Kingsgrove The area between Parramatta, Liverpool and Bankstown Between Epping and Castle Hill. deep end services pty ltd 16

20 Figure 5: Supermarket accessibility analysis deep end services pty ltd 17