Retailers continue to reinvent in response to customer behavior changes

Transcription

1 MARKETVIEW Des Moines Metro Retail, Q Retailers continue to reinvent in response to customer behavior changes Vacancy Rate (Neighborhood Center) 7.40% Vacancy Rate (Big Box) 4.50% Vacancy Rate (Regional Malls) 16.00% Net Absorption (Neighborhood Center) (3,335) SF Net Absorption (Big Box) (135,492) SF Vacancy Rates 18.00% 16.00% 16.00% 14.00% 12.00% 10.00% 10.10% 8.00% 6.00% 5.50% 5.30% 6.80% 6.10% 7.40% 4.00% 2.00% 4.90% 4.40% 2.80% 1.80% 4.50% 0.00% Big Box Neighborhood & Community Center Regional Malls HIGHLIGHTS The Jordan Creek Town Center corridor remains Iowa s preferred shopping destination attracting new retailers and restaurants. Recent additions include Raising Cane s, Hy-Vee Health Market, Hobby Lobby and Wahlburgers. The Altoona and Ankeny markets continue be thriving retail markets. Growth in Altoona is centered around the successful opening of the Outlets of Des Moines and the adjacent Prairie Crossing development. Ankeny s growth is centered around the Prairie Trail development and strength in the Delaware Avenue corridor. The Hickman Road corridor in Clive/Waukee has exploded with recent additions of Starbucks, Auto Zone, Palms Theatres & IMAX, and Nebraska Furniture Mart (coming soon). Retail land pricing on this corridor is as strong as any submarket. Department store closures push Des Moines mall vacancy levels to new highs closing out the year at an 84% occupancy rate.

2 CHANGING RETAIL TRENDS IN THE MARKETPLACE For the times they are a-changin. The lyrics from the 1964 Bob Dylan hit could appropriately describe the retail marketplace for there is more change in retail than any other segment of the commercial real estate marketplace. One thing remains constant: we still love to shop. According to Mastercard s SpendingPulse, overall retail spending in the United States during the 2018 holiday season totaled $850 billion, its highest level in six years, up 5.1% from the previous year. There are a number of factors that led to this banner holiday sales season, but exceptionally strong consumer confidence was the primary reason. Retail sales reached its highest level in almost two decades. Hobby Lobby at Jordan Creek We re not only shopping, but we are changing the way in which we shop. Retailers that implemented Buy- Online, Pick-up in-store (BOPS) and Buy-Online, Ship to Store (BOSS) strategies are benefitting. The 2018 holiday season set a record for in-store pick up of online purchases, which increased 47% over One retailer that emphasized store pick-up services was Target and their pick-up orders increased 60% over 2017 and those same sales accounted for 25% of Target s online sales this year. Year-over-year growth in e-commerce sales continues to average 14 to 17% annually, while in-store growth averages 1 to 4% in recent years. Online sales have and will continue to grow at a feverish pace. Online sales during the 2018 holiday season totaled $110.6 billion, up almost 18% from Utilizing their smartphones, U.S. consumers spent $1.0 billion on Thanksgiving Day and more than $2.0 billion on Black Friday alone. If one thing remains certain it is that retail sales will continue to shift online and the omnichannel retailers that embrace the online consumer will capture the largest percentage of consumer spending. The retail marketplace was rocked in 2017 with 7,000 shuttered stores and bankrupt retailers closing storefronts permanently. Some experts predicted that 2018would even be more disastrous to the retail industry but that did not occur. Only about 50% as many stores closed in 2018 and we witnessed the continued growth of innovative retail shopping destinations as well as the re-invention of enclosed shopping malls. In fact, according to CBRE national research, Q was the first quarter in over three years whereas available retail space declined across all shopping center categories Lifestyle & Mall, Neighborhood Community & Strip, and Power centers. Target Greater emphasis on in-store pick up. Payless ShoeSource Shuttered retailers

3 NEIGHBORHOOD & COMMUNITY CENTERS Picking up the magnifying glass and focusing on the Greater Des Moines area retail marketplace, the results and performance are encouraging. The Western Suburbs market continues to be a focal point for Neighborhood Community & Strip centers, totaling approximately 50% of the shopping centers and building footprint in the marketplace. Although the occupancy rate in these centers dipped approximately 1.3% in 2018, the 92.6% occupancy is still quite favorable. Securing restaurant or endcap retail in Class A neighborhood centers continues to be almost an impossibility. Neighborhood & Community Centers Market Statistics Submarket Market Rentable Area (SF) Vacant (SF) Vacancy Rate Net Absorption Western Suburbs 1,763, , % 13,434 CBD 223,176 19, % (6,413) Northwest Des Moines 479,340 33, % 1,101 Northeast Des Moines 419,4 16, % (7,523) South Des Moines 308,239 19, % (4,400) Ankeny 349,973 43, % 466 Greater Des Moines Total 3,544, , % (3,335) Absorption of retail space in neighborhood centers in 2018 was uneventful, as almost all submarkets reported small positive or negative changes in absorption. In all, absorption was a negative 3,335 square feet in Neighborhood & Community Center Net Absorption (Trailing 12 Month Period) 160, , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - (20,000) Western Suburbs CBD Northwest Des Moines Northeast Des Moines South Des Moines Ankeny

4 BIG BOX RETAIL Big Box inventory mirrors the Neighborhood Community & Strip center numbers with almost 50% of the entire Des Moines area inventory being located in the Western Suburbs. Big Box occupancy dropped from 98.2% in Q to 95.5% in Q This dip in occupancy is not a huge surprise as K-Mart shuttered two stores, one on Hickman Road in Urbandale and the other on Hubbell Avenue in Des Moines. Additionally, Toys R Us closed two stores one on an outparcel at Southridge Mall and the other in Clive. Big Box Market Statistics Submarket Market Rentable Area (SF) Vacant (SF) Vacancy Rate Net Absorption Western Suburbs 5,335, , % (5,870) CBD 59, % 0 Northwest Des Moines 824,735 18, % 21,549 Northeast Des Moines 1,523, , % (105,683) South Des Moines 1,430,238 45, % (45,488) Ankeny 1,586,149 15, % 0 Greater Des Moines Total 10,759, , % (135,492) Unsurprisingly, absorption of Big Box space was negative in the previous 12 months with over 135,000 square feet of negative absorption. However, we anticipate that both former K-Mart stores will be repurposed for non-retail uses in 2019 and Big Box occupancy will return to 2017 levels. Big Box Net Absorption (Trailing 12 Month Period) 400, , , ,000 - (100,000) (200,000) Western Suburbs CBD Northwest Des Moines Northeast Des Moines South Des Moines Ankeny

5 REGIONAL SHOPPING CENTERS No type of retail center has been impacted more by the changes in retail dynamics than enclosed malls. Merle Hay Mall lost two anchors in 2018 with the departure of Sears and Younkers. Meanwhile, Valley West Mall along with Jordan Creek Town Center lost a Younkers store. Both malls are making strong cases to reinvent the properties. Valley West Mall is planning a rebrand to Valley West Commons with a mix of new restaurants, outparcels, office spaces, and multi-family. We anticipate demolition of the former Sears building at Merle Hay Mall and continued development of exterior entrance mall shops that have proven to be a successful formula for the mall owner. Regional Shopping Center Market Statistics Total Area (SF) Total Stores Merle Hay Mall 1,060, % Valley West Mall 859, % Outlets of Des Moines 325, % Jordan Creek Town Center 1,318, % Occupancy Regional Shopping Center Historical Occupancy Levels % 95.00% 90.00% 85.00% 80.00% 98.60% 97.70% 99.00% 93.60% 94.10% 95.50% 92.00% 92.00% 91.00% 87.00% 80.00% 82.00% 75.00% RETAIL MOVING FORWARD Restaurant and experience related retailers continue to be in demand for developers and landlords in the Des Moines marketplace. Restaurant chains such as Blaze Pizza, McAlister s Deli, 1908 Drought House, Panchero s, B-Bops, Culvers, Raising Cane s, and Rosati s Pizza have expanded aggressively in the marketplace. In addition, full-service restaurants such as Giordano s Pizza, Burger Shed, Steak N Shake, and District 36 have announced new locations that will open in Experience retailers will continue to look for opportunities in the marketplace and build upon the success shown by Flix Brewhouse, escape rooms, trampoline parks, and others. This national shift to internet proof retail is already beginning to show itself in the Des Moines market, most notably in the west suburban submarket. In Merle Hay Mall Valley West Mall Jordan Creek Town Center fact, a survey of 67 retail leases executed in the western suburbs in 2018 indicated that 84% of the tenants were restaurant or experience related retailers Percent of Retail Leases Executed in the Western Suburban Submarket % Traditional Retail 84% Internet Proof Retail

6 GREATER ECONOMIC DATA Population 644,590 (2018 MSA) Unemployment Rate 2.4% LARGEST EMPLOYERS EMPLOYEES Wells Fargo & Company 14,500 UnityPoint Health - Des Moines 8,026 Principal 6,500 Hy-vee 6,400 Nationwide 4,525 Mercy Medical Center 4,228 John Deere 3,089 Vermeer Corporation 2,500 DuPont Pioneer 2,495 JBS USA 2,300 Pella Corporation 2,224 Wellmark Blue Cross Blue Shield of Iowa 2,000 UPS 1,600 Bridgestone Americas Tire Operations 1,600 Mercer 1,560 YMCA 1,300 EMC Insurance Companies 1,269 Casey's 1,200 Tyson Fresh Meats, Inc. 1,200 Annual Retail Sales 12 Month Change in employment 3.3% YEAR MSA PERCENTAGE CHANGE 2013 $8,411,526, % 2014 $8,787,0, % 2015 $9,346,317, % 2016 $9,769,581, % 2017 $10,071,879, % 2018 $10,128,863, % Source: Iowa Retail and Use Tax Report, Iowa Department of Revenue and Finance Government, 12% Construction, 6% Manufacturing, 5% Other Services, 3% Leisure and Hospitality, 9% Transportation, 19% Education and Health Services, 14% Information, 3% Professional and Business Services, 13% Financial Activities, 16% Sources: Greater Des Moines Partnership Bureau of Economic Analysis US Bureau of Labor Statistics - December 2018

7 SCHOOL ST WOODLAND AVE HIGH ST INGERSOLL AVE SCHOOL ST 15TH ST LINDEN ST 16TH ST 15TH ST 15TH ST CENTER ST CROCKER ST TUTTLE ST SCHOOL ST PLEASANT ST TUTTLE ST 7TH ST 7TH ST CENTER ST WATSON POWELL JR WAY ELM ST 5TH AVE PARK ST MURPHY ST 3RD ST E 4TH ST W MARTIN LUTHER KING JR PKWY LYON ST SE 7TH ST E 9TH ST LYON ST 44 R22 MILLS CIVIC PKWY NW 142ND ST JORDAN CREEK PKWY HICKMAN RD Racoon River NW 128TH ST 141 UNIVERSITY AVE NW 100TH ST 100TH ST GRAND AVE NW 70TH AVE EP TRUE PKWY 86TH ST NW 86TH ST 235 RAILROAD AVE DOUGLAS AVE. 63RD ST SW 63RD ST MERLE HAY RD Saylorville Lake INGERSOLL AVE 28 GRAND AVE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FLEUR DR Des Moines River Grays Lake SW 9TH ST 2ND AVE STATE ST 415 ARMY POST RD ANKENY BLVD 69 BROADWAY AVE E EUCLID AVE SE 14TH ST 69 DELAWARE AVE DELAWARE AVE 235 ANKENY REGIONAL AIRPORT E UNIVERSITY AVE NE 78TH AVE SW 8TH ST N 1ST ST 163 METHODOLOGY While there are a variety of retail uses, this survey focuses on regional shopping malls, neighborhood and community centers, and big box retail. The neighborhood and community centers analysis focuses on multi-tenant with small to medium size occupiers. Big box includes grocery stores, home improvement stores, and larger retail and discount stores containing approximately 20,000 SF. Regional shopping centers are considered separately. The 2019 Marketview contains information collected during the first quarter of SUBMARKET BOUNDARIES Central Business District (CBD) - Includes the Western CBD and the East Village, extending west to Martin Luther King Jr. Parkway and east to East 14th Street. Western Suburbs - Encompasses West Des Moines, Clive, Urbandale, Windsor Heights, Johnston, Grimes, Waukee, and some unincorporated areas of Polk, Dallas, and Warren Counties. Northeast - Consists of Northeast Des Moines (extended south to the Des Moines River), Pleasant Hill, Altoona, Eastern Saylor Township, and Delaware Township. South - Comprises Southwest Des Moines, Southeast Des Moines (south of Des Moines River), and some unincorporated areas of Polk and Warren Counties. Ankeny - Evaluated separately. Northwest - Includes Northwest Des Moines and Western Saylor Township. E GROVE AVE MARTIN LUTHER JR PKWY MARTIN LUTHER KING JR PKWY FLEUR DRIVE 20TH ST CROCKER ST 19TH ST 19TH ST 18TH ST 18TH ST 17TH ST 17TH ST 17TH ST 16 TH ST 15TH ST W MARTIN LUTHER KING JR PKWY OAKRIDGE DR SW 16TH ST OAKRIDGE AVE HIGH ST 9 TH ST 6TH AVE 6TH AVE 6TH AVE GRAND AVE GRAND AVE GRAND AVE GRAND AVE E GRAND AVE 13TH AVE 12TH ST Western Gateway Park KEOSAUQUA WAY 7TH ST SW 7TH ST WALNUT ST WALNUT ST W MARTIN LUTHER KING JR PKWY 8TH ST 8TH ST 3RD ST 3RD ST 2ND AVE 2ND AVE 2ND AVE SW 3RD ST SW 2ND ST LOCUST ST LOCUST ST LOCUST ST LOCUST ST SE 14TH ST 12TH ST 12TH ST CENTER ST 11TH ST 10TH ST 9TH ST 8TH ST 801 Grand CHERRY ST 235 5TH AVE MULBERRY ST SCHOOL ST Iowa Events Center 4TH ST 5TH AVE SW 5TH AVE COURT AVE COURT AVE E COURT AVE 4TH ST W RIVER DR Civic Center Court Avenue District VINE ST Des Moines River MARKET ST SW WATER ST ROBERT D RAY DR MAPLE ST SW WATER ST E 1ST ST Principal Park E 5TH ST LYON ST ST ST E 2ND ST Racoon River E 3RD ST Des Moines River Botanical Center East Village E 4TH ST E 4TH ST E VINE ST WALNUT ST E WALNUT ST E 5TH ST E MARKET ST E ELM ST State Historical Museum E 9TH ST RACCOON ST SE 8TH ST E 12TH ST E 12TH ST State Capitol SCOTT AVE SCOTT AVE SE 9TH ST SE 6TH ST E 6TH ST PENNSYLVANIA AVE SE 10TH ST E 1 3TH E 13TH E 14 TH ST SE 14TH ST E 14TH ST CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT (CBD) NW BEAVER DR ANKENY DALLAS COUNTY GRIMES JOHNSTON 80 POLK COUNTY ALTOONA BONDURANT 80 METROPOLITAN AREA 6 WAUKEE 80 CLIVE URBANDALE WINDSOR HEIGHTS WEST SUBURBS WEST 6 NW ML KING JR PKWY CBD HUBBELL AVE NE PLEASANT HILL 35 RACCOON RIVER DR 5 SOUTH CARLISLE 5 5 MADISON COUNTY 35 CUMMING NORWALK 28 WARREN COUNTY 69 5 Sources: CoStar Group, Polk County Assessor and Dallas County Assessor Hubbell Commercial Brokers, L.C., d/b/a CBRE Hubbell Commercial. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we make no guarantee, warranty or representation, either expressed or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.

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